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WR Parris Campbell, PHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter cloppbeast
- Start date
Milkman
Footballguy
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Right. He is on board for 2 more seasons, then will be UFA at age 31. He could still get a huge contract offer in free agency if they don't or can't re-sign him. So it could take awhile for Campbell to get #1 targets (if he ever can).
Interseptopus
Footballguy
my wr7 and 14 overall
I might drop him below marquise Brown due to being the wr2 in that offense at best.
I might drop him below marquise Brown due to being the wr2 in that offense at best.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
QB
tOSU offense.
Barrett was god-awful. Horrible accuracy and missed a ton of windows to get people the ball. Great system guy and I love what he gave to the program, but we could have won 3 with the talent and coaching we had.
Urban's spread offense also did him no favors. Not a lot of actual routes, lots of crosses and screens designed to get the ball in the hands of the athletes (and we had a TON) and let them fly. We had/have 3-5 guys at any given time like that and they spread the ball out to all of them. Wasn't a system designed to feed the ball to a single guy and it wouldn't have mattered because we didn't have a QB (until Haskins) that could get it there reliably.
I wrote up a pretty big post on him with the bottom line that he needed a good systems with a creative-minded offensive guy running it - was hoping Reid/Payton/Nagy level, but Reich is the next gen of that model. This moves Campbell up a lot in my rankings.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
I was expecting him to come in as a project without getting anything fantasy useful out of him for a few years. Colts will give him some value while he continues to learn how to play receiver. I agree with you, Indy is among the best possible situations.
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Raptors409
Footballguy
You guys need to love this pick more than you currently are. I saw Indianapolis force feed Eric Ebron the ball last season. Andrew Luck made that guy look like a freaking superstar. I saw Indianapolis force feed Chester Rogers 10+ targets multiple times and Andrew Luck made him look respectable.
Know this. The Colts did not want to throw the ball to Eric Ebron as much as they did last year but did it out of necessity. The guy was limping off the field every game and by all accounts is an absolute warrior. The point I'm trying to make is that Andrew Luck can easily support 2 1,000 yard receivers and I see no reason based on volume alone that Campbell couldn't sniff 900 yards this season.
He literally has nobody in front of him, plays with a Top 5 quarterback, and has the physical assets on par with pretty much anyone else in this draft class. Michael Thomas was the comparison I saw heavily pre-draft.
Know this. The Colts did not want to throw the ball to Eric Ebron as much as they did last year but did it out of necessity. The guy was limping off the field every game and by all accounts is an absolute warrior. The point I'm trying to make is that Andrew Luck can easily support 2 1,000 yard receivers and I see no reason based on volume alone that Campbell couldn't sniff 900 yards this season.
He literally has nobody in front of him, plays with a Top 5 quarterback, and has the physical assets on par with pretty much anyone else in this draft class. Michael Thomas was the comparison I saw heavily pre-draft.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Evan SilvaVerified account @evansilva 3h3 hours ago
Parris Campbell "looked like the best player on the field" on day one of #Colts rookie camp, and his "speed was obvious."
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First look: Five observations from Colts rookie minicamp
Parris Campbell "looked like the best player on the field" on day one of #Colts rookie camp, and his "speed was obvious."
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First look: Five observations from Colts rookie minicamp
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Wasn't his ADOT like 3 yards? Everything I read about this guy says he has a super limited route tree and will need a lot of polish. The comp is either Tavon Austin or Percy Harvin at this point in time, depending on how successful you think he'll be.
I'd consider him around wr 3-6, which is like 1.08-2.01 for me. I've traded all but two firsts this year (by comparison I have accumulated 16 next year) and the two I have are top 5, so I won't be getting him.
Great landing spot makes him more intriguing than most.
Faust
MVP
Top Takeaways: 2019 Colts Rookie Minicamp
Excerpt:
Excerpt:
It sounds like the Colts coaching staff is wasting no time putting in the work on accelerating Campbell’s development with regards to his route running.
Agreed. The only thing close is the 40 time. Tavon is 4 inches shorter and Campbell outperformed him on the broad jump and vertical which both are measures of explosive ability.
Campbell caught passes downfield so it is just ridiculous to say he can't.
Proof: https://youtu.be/JQdY5u5WeBM?t=56
Just like it's ridiculous to say that Metcalf is just a straight line receiver. I mean what receiver runs a route like the 3 cone drill. He doesn't need short area quickness. He needs to be able to run the routes guys like Andre and Calvin ran.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Even if the Colts take it slow to begin with, Reich feels Campbell’s intelligence and mentality toward the game will allow him to succeed when given the chance.
“You can just tell his aptitude. He has got this football aptitude. He understands it,” Reich said. “Sometimes you explain something to somebody and you know how when you explain it and they just get it and you can tell that they get it, he is that guy. You just see how easy he adapts on the field to little coaching points.”
It’s easy to get excited about a player with Campbell’s abilities, especially when considering he’s a perfect fit for the offense.
“You can just tell his aptitude. He has got this football aptitude. He understands it,” Reich said. “Sometimes you explain something to somebody and you know how when you explain it and they just get it and you can tell that they get it, he is that guy. You just see how easy he adapts on the field to little coaching points.”
It’s easy to get excited about a player with Campbell’s abilities, especially when considering he’s a perfect fit for the offense.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Unfortunately, I think you will regret that. Unless you're happy with wr3 upside. And its very possible that's all Deebo is too and it's a wash
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong, but to avoid repeating myself it would be a statistical outlier if he were to become a wr2 and an even bigger anomaly if he was a wr1 based on his DR and BA. I have no problem coming in here 3 years from now and admitting hes one of the rare exceptions and great for all of you taking such a big risk! I dont think I will be though. Stats are heavily on my side.
ETA: it's not that I think Deebo will be great. I actually dont expect either to achieve greatness. Deebo has some wr2 upside but I think that's where hes capped. and a lot depends on his offense. I'm actually trying to trade him. Campbell I just dont think ends up as a very good fantasy wr.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I think one thing to keep in mind when discussing if he can be an outlier in regards to his DR and BA...look at his QB for his college career before Haskins took over. Even Michael Thomas, besides being fundamentally sound, had questions about his upside due to that offense and the trigger man.
He's a freak athlete paired for his career with Andrew Luck. That has to count for something as well.
He's a freak athlete paired for his career with Andrew Luck. That has to count for something as well.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I understand what the numbers say, for sure.
I also trust Chris Ballard and the roster he's putting together, and that they think Campbell is a good fit for Reich. He's got athleticism, situation, pedigree, and from me at least the benefit of the doubt given to the FO that drafted him. Those are all factors we each weight differently of course.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The hang up I have is how much more productive Curtis Samuel was in similar circumstances. My understanding is they wanted to give that role to Campbell, but ended up disbursing it amongst several different players because Parris wasnt up for it. The statistical breakout didnt happen until he got Hawkins, more Ryan Day, and less Urban. And there's legitimate reason to believe that breakout was more scheme than skill. He's in as good of a situation as he could have gotten, but I still question the ceiling.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
Hes done a great job. One thing many of us, myself included, need reminders about is that what the NFL values doesnt directly translate to fantasy. Campbell may provide them a gadget player to fill a specific need. They may not have drafted him ever thinking he would be anything more than a slot guy with a specific role.
Not trying to pee on anyone's cheerios but it's always interesting to see expectations going crazy because a player is fast, or they're tall, or whatever. I am not expecting Campbell to be much for fantasy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
This. Reading this thread you'd think Campbell is a future stud. The excuses are the surrounding talent due to the prestige of the program, the qb was no good until Haskins, the play calling. Yet Samuel was able to do quite well with regards to his BA and DR, without Haskins. I imagine no one here thinks Samuel will be a stud (although I do see him as having a better career than Campbell).
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
If Curtis Samuels was paired with Luck I think a lot of people would consider him a potential foundational piece. Even as it stands he's a popular off-season acquisition target for some.
Exactly. Could be a swing and miss but almost every player is that. When you get the chance to draft a future #1 with a top 5 -10 QB, you have to take that chance. As much as I want Metcalf, this offense is more explosive, he's in a dome and out of 8 division games, only plays the Titans in Tennessee in potentially bad weather. Funchess is no threat.John Paul said:
ffmail4me
Footballguy
This. And I think we also can't dismiss that Samuel may still break out this year. There has been a lot of buzz about him this offseason. Maybe both players were held back to a degree by their college system but both could very well have the skill sets to succeed in the NFL. You can't teach speed and short area burst and that sure helps.John Paul said:
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Samuel wasn't held back by anything - he turned 171 touches into 1,636 yards and 15 TD's in one season. He lined up all over the field and was utilized accordingly. Samuel's slower developmental curve into the NFL was because the Panthers drafted him with the intentions on utilizing him differently than in college - they saw him as a wide receiver first that could also be lethal near the LoS. Then all that was further delayed because of ankle issues bridging both seasons.
Campbell didn't even accumulate 171 touches across his 4 year collegiate career. And his role was quite limited in comparison, mainly lining up outside and getting the ball quickly in space. He has physical traits to believe he could develop into something more, but there is absolutely nothing he did in college that would leave one to believe he will.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I was admittedly very dismissive of Campbell pre-draft. Him being drafted where he was and by this particular team left my second guessing my original impression. I now understand where some may believe that he can develop into something special. I can't reconcile the bolded though. His college team had a template in place for him and decided he couldn't do it. The story ends there. If he develops into an alpha then it's due to player development and his own attention to detail at this level. He has the traits to do it, but quite simply has done nothing on the field to suggest he will. So, add it to the range of potential outcomes, but it's nowhere near an expectation.Dr. Dan said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Exactly. I dont understand some of the words (and agreement with those words) in this thread where people think he can be a future #1 in Indy. Nothing in his history shows he can be that. If he does, that's off to him because he will have.completely changed his spots, which is unusual.
There are plenty of wrs who were drafted onto teams with great offenses/QBs and didnt succeed.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
It's really not hard to understand. Campbell switched to WR from RB during college. Without enough time to learn everything about playing receiver, he instead trained for a specific role in the offense, doing pretty well putting up a lot of big plays. Everything about Parris is a projection of his god given talents, that given enough time as a professional athlete he can learn the technical side of playing receiver.
What I don't understand: your idea of a 2nd round project having only wr3 upside. Dude didn't put up a great season in his 2 years playing/learning wide receiver, how does that mean he can never do it? I mean, I could see you saying he's a risky pick. That makes perfect sense even.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't that happen 4 years ago? I think position switches late in one's college career or in the case of Samuel after are items to make note of. But that long ago? Nah. I think their plan A in 2017 was to give him the whole Samuel role, but it wasn't working so they scaled back his workload as the season progressed. Then they plotted out a specific role for him in 2018 and more efficient results yielded.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
It’s not like this has never happened before in the history of the NFL draft… I’m more surprised of your certainty that he has massive upside due to the fact that he is a 2nd round WR, when history would suggest I’m closer to being correct than you are, not only because of BA and DR but just the history of the 2nd round for WRs (way more misses than hits on this list)
Round 2 WRs over the last 10 years:
2009
Brian Robiskie
Mohammed Massaquoi
2010
Arrelious Benn
Golden Tate
2011
Titus Young
Torey Smith
Greg Little
Randall Cobb
2012
Brian Quick
Stephen Hill
Alshon Jeffery
Ryan Broyles
Rueben Randle
2013
Justin Hunter
Robert Woods
Aaron Dobson
2014
Marqise Lee
Jordan Matthews
Paul Richardson
Davante Adams
Cody Latimer
Allen Robinson
Jarvis Landry
2015
Devin Smith
Dorial Green-Beckham
Devin Funchess
2016
Sterling Shepard
Michael Thomas
Tyler Boyd
2017-2019 probably too early to call these guys busts or hits.
Aside from 2014 and 2016, the vast majority of these guys are misses. And of those hits, there is only 1 who has a BA and DR that falls in the exception category. If you think Campbell can be a WR1, the odds are very much against you. I prefer to put my chips with guys who are less likely to be misses.
I'm not saying because hes a 2md round pick he only has wr3 upside. I'm saying because his DR and BA are pretty poor, and he profiles as a slot/gadget guy, that his upside in fantasy is wr3. I dont see him being a #1 in that offense at all. If he is, he will be one of the few exceptions to the rule. I dont like to make unfavorable bets.
So far the only argument for him being a wr1 seem to be: he has Luck, hes a 2nd rounder, and excuses for why we should ignore his BA and DR
Arguments against: BA and DR in my wr1 miss detector thread, Campbell would be a miss for wr1 and wr2. Also between 2009 and 2016 only 31% of wrs selected round 2 can probably be considered hits. Of those hits only 1 WR had a BA and DR as an exception to the rule. Also, his failure in college to be a focal point like Samuel and settling for a specific role
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Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
BA/DR?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
So how many of the receivers drafted in the 2nd round meet the criteria in the first place?
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
breakout age and Dominator rating. If you havent seen my wr1 miss predictor thread I'd encourage you to search for it
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I could certainly search that, but it's irrelevant. The criteria dosen't predict hits. it predicts likely misses.
"Not all crazy people are serial killers but all serial killers are crazy"
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Look at it this way, if you could approach your fantasy rookie draft by skimming the most likely to miss off the top and what you're left with is a narrower group of wrs, increasing your chance of a hit.
Campbell is the fat to skim off
I feel like I've explained this 300 times, and the people who dont understand that predicting a miss does not inversely predict hits are never going to understand.
Campbell is the fat to skim off
I feel like I've explained this 300 times, and the people who dont understand that predicting a miss does not inversely predict hits are never going to understand.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Selection Bias
Fords get in more accidents than Saabs. Because they're less safe, or because there's way more of them?
Likely most of the receivers drafted in the 2nd meet the criteria already. So, most of the hits also meeting the criteria is not a revelation.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't know. I remember reading he switched to wr freshman-sophomore year, but now I can't find anything. We'll go with you.
But it's not insignificant to move from hybrid rb/wr to slot receiver during junior year. Maybe a lot to ask him to run routes like a typical college senior?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Hit% + Miss% = 100%
This equation is quite literally true. So yes, they are inversely related. Some algebra work reveals that Miss% = 1 - Hit%
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
No. you dont understand scientific research or statistics. this isnt grade school math as you have referenced. if a study shows something is great at ruling something out, it doesnt mean the reverse is good at ruling something in. you are 100% incorrect in your thinking on this and I would encourage you to read up the difference between sensitivity and specificity. The method I referenced has a high sensitivity- it rules people out.
MRIs are a great example: If something shows up on an MRI you have a 96ish% chance of having that problem. However, if your MRI comes back normal you have about a 25% chance of having no structural problems
I've explained this enough if you dont get it by now you never will, but I would encourage you to read up on those differences.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
So your little scientific study, so you say it has high sensitivity. Specifically what is the value of its sensitivity?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Sensitivity rules out. So it shows who is most likely to not be a fantasy wr1 or even wr2.
You can read the thread for the exact numbers yourself, but as I said it is like skimming off those who are most likely to miss, limiting the pool you are choosing from.
It increases the chances of you selecting a hit by eliminating likely misses.
I'm done explaining... it's all in the other thread. if you dont understand, that's fine, but that's your issue then. I get that some people here are invested in Campbell and they dont want to read things other than positive posts about how great hes going to be. Its not a good bet to make based on wr1s and wr2s over the last 10 years.
