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WHY are these contracts so big? (1 Viewer)

Deamon

Deamon

Footballguy
Sorry if posted elsewhere, but me and some friends have been discussing the reasoning for this buying frenzy and the dollar amount of these deals. 

Is it ONLY that the salary cap has gone up to 191 Mil?  
Is it that there's more FA this year than in other years (or at least higher profile players)? 
Is it that this is going to be the new trend moving forward as opposed to it only being a one year thing?  Similar to how the NBA is now more about big individual contracts (Maybe the Brown and Bell situations are giving players the upper hand in negotiations?)
Is it really not much different than other years it just seems like it?

Some of these WR and defensive contracts seem unheard of... what's going on here?
 

 
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Deamon said:
Some of these WR and defensive contracts seem unheard of... what's going on here?
 
Click to expand...
It doesn't seem different than the first wave of free agency every year. This always happens. But of course the cap going up only helps.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
It doesn't seem different than the first wave of free agency every year. This always happens. But of course the cap going up only helps.
Click to expand...
Maybe I just didn't follow FA as closely last year.  But when did WRs like Humphries, Djax, and Funchess get 10mill+ year contracts?

Seems like a spending spree this year.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
It doesn't seem different that the first wave of free agency every year. This always happens.
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I'd expect the effects to be somewhat magnified this year because the cap increased quite a bit more than folks expected (from $177M to $191M).

A lot of these buying decisions are made on the margins, since most teams are pretty close up against the cap. If you're $30M or $40M away from affording your FA wish list, you might not even bother. If you're $40M under, it won't matter either way. But if you're $15M away and, hey, the cap goes up more than were expecting, and that $15M gap is now $5M, it becomes pretty tempting to tinker with some deals to free up that last few million. Result: an extra $15M gets spent that wouldn't have.

Multiply that by about half the league and there you go.

 
Alright then, I guess it's only just me.  Shut this down! 

Reactions on almost every signing have been surprise though at the dollar amount.  Hicks, Murray, Beasely, Brown, Funchess, etc... shocked these guys got what they did.  Seems different this year, but alright if not.

 
Deamon said:
Alright then, I guess it's only just me.  Shut this down! 

Reactions on almost every signing have been surprise though at the dollar amount.  Hicks, Murray, Beasely, Brown, Funchess, etc... shocked these guys got what they did.  Seems different this year, but alright if not.
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I kinda agree.  The players listed above are ok players but I wouldn't pay them like that.  Good for them

 
I just wonder if there's a slight shift in the way GM's are approaching signings.  The NBA went through the same thing and is now "Spend like crazy on the big names and fill the smaller spots around it".  The players run that league.

Bell and Brown situations have both been pretty unprecedented.  Brown got EXACTLY what he wanted, and Bell likely won't get what he wanted but also was able to sit out the whole year.  I just hope we're not entering an era of the money hungry star players running the league.

 
Deamon said:
I just wonder if there's a slight shift in the way GM's are approaching signings.  The NBA went through the same thing and is now "Spend like crazy on the big names and fill the smaller spots around it".  The players run that league.
Click to expand...
Apples and oranges. Obviously the rosters are far smaller, for one, but the NBA has a very artificial salary ceiling in the form of the max deal.

Very few if any NFL teams would be willing to shell out 25% of their cap to a single player - not even Mahomes would get $48M a year if he was a UFA today - but literally every NBA team would be happy to spend that 25% to land LeBron or Durant. When you have 30 potential buyers (all at more or less the same bid) for a handful of game-changing studs, you get ... a market where the studs call the shots.

 
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ESPN (I know, I know) has been grading each of these signings and almost every one seems to be a C or D based on the thought that teams are overpaying this week.

 
Deamon said:
ESPN (I know, I know) has been grading each of these signings and almost every one seems to be a C or D based on the thought that teams are overpaying this week.
Click to expand...
Last time I checked earlier today (there are signings every 10 minutes it seems), the only A grade went to NE in trading for Michael Bennett. Part of that may be that Bill Barnwell has a man crush on the Patriots, but his logic makes sense (decent pass rusher with no guaranteed money left on his deal that ranked in the Top 5 in QB pressures last year for $11 million less than Trey Flowers is making . . . with the cost being the difference between a 5th round pick (that they gave up) and a 7th round pick (that they acquired).

I say this pretty much every year, but teams should be looking at what NE does and trying to emulate their strategies. Other than Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots rarely dabble in the first chaotic wave of free agency. In fact, Bill Belichick was photographed today on the beach in Barbados on vacation. They thrive on letting teams over pay and getting into albatross contracts while waiting idly by waiting for players that will be way less costly but will fit their system and perform pretty well. As a for instance, NE's entire grouping of RB's and WR's cost less last year than what Antonio Brown will make this year.

 
Deamon said:
WHY are these contracts so big?

... what's going on here?
Click to expand...
Jim Nagy‏Verified account @JimNagy_SB

Most teams spending big money in FA are run by GMs in win-now mode. Think about it, there was zero turnover at the GM level this year...that’s incredible in such a volatile league. I’m sure plenty were put on alert by their owners. This is why big spending usually happens.

6:03 AM - 12 Mar 2019

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Jim Nagy‏Verified account @JimNagy_SB

Most teams spending big money in FA are run by GMs in win-now mode. Think about it, there was zero turnover at the GM level this year...that’s incredible in such a volatile league. I’m sure plenty were put on alert by their owners. This is why big spending usually happens.

6:03 AM - 12 Mar 2019
Click to expand...
Interesting.  Never thought of that angle.

 
Deamon said:
Maybe I just didn't follow FA as closely last year.  But when did WRs like Humphries, Djax, and Funchess get 10mill+ year contracts?

Seems like a spending spree this year.
Click to expand...
jackson didn't get 10 mill plus per year.

also, don't think about AAV or all the numbers thrown out in the reporting.  the real numbers are always in the fine print and much less.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
jackson didn't get 10 mill plus per year.

also, don't think about AAV or all the numbers thrown out in the reporting.  the real numbers are always in the fine print and much less.
Click to expand...
Jax got 9.  Close enough.  I still can't get over the funchess deal.

 
Here are the most similar contracts to this year's biggest WR deals, as a percentage of the cap ($ per year divided by the cap in the year that the deal was signed, data from Spotrac).

5.45%    Eric Decker    NYJ    2014    ($36M, 5 yr)
5.42%    Donte Moncrief    JAC    2018    ($10M, 1 yr)
5.39%    Laurent Robinson    JAC    2012    ($33M, 5 yr)
5.37%    Robert Meachem    SD    2012    ($26M, 4 yr)
5.31%    Devin Funchess    IND    2019    ($10M, 1 yr)
5.15%    Marvin Jones    DET    2016    ($40M, 5 yr)
5.05%    Jamison Crowder    NYJ    2019    ($29M, 3 yr)
4.89%    Andre Johnson    IND    2015    ($21M, 3 yr)
4.88%    Wes Welker    DEN    2013    ($12M, 2 yr)
4.87%    Kenny Britt    CLE    2017    ($33M, 4 yr)
4.84%    Reggie Wayne    IND    2012    ($18M, 3 yr)
4.80%    Marqise Lee    JAC    2018    ($34M, 4 yr)
4.78%    Adam Humphries    TEN    2019    ($36M, 4 yr)
4.78%    John Brown    BUF    2019    ($27M, 3 yr)
4.77%    Josh Morgan    WAS    2012    ($12M, 2 yr)
4.66%    Golden Tate    DET    2014    ($31M, 5 yr)
4.63%    Danny Amendola    NE    2013    ($29M, 5 yr)
4.51%    Paul Richardson    WAS    2018    ($40M, 5 yr)
4.51%    Albert Wilson    MIA    2018    ($24M, 3 yr)
4.51%    DeSean Jackson    WAS    2014    ($24M, 4 yr)

 
Deamon said:
I just wonder if there's a slight shift in the way GM's are approaching signings.  The NBA went through the same thing and is now "Spend like crazy on the big names and fill the smaller spots around it".  The players run that league.

Bell and Brown situations have both been pretty unprecedented.  Brown got EXACTLY what he wanted, and Bell likely won't get what he wanted but also was able to sit out the whole year.  I just hope we're not entering an era of the money hungry star players running the league.
Click to expand...
The difference is you only need 3 good players to win in th nba. In the nfl the redskins and dolphins break the bank every year.

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Apples and oranges. Obviously the rosters are far smaller, for one, but the NBA has a very artificial salary ceiling in the form of the max deal.

Very few if any NFL teams would be willing to shell out 25% of their cap to a single player - not even Mahomes would get $48M a year if he was a UFA today - but literally every NBA team would be happy to spend that 25% to land LeBron or Durant. When you have 30 potential buyers (all at more or less the same bid) for a handful of game-changing studs, you get ... a market where the studs call the shots.
Click to expand...
Not to derail this thing too much but yes Mahomes would absolutely get that. 

 
ZWK said:
Here are the most similar contracts to this year's biggest WR deals, as a percentage of the cap ($ per year divided by the cap in the year that the deal was signed, data from Spotrac).

5.45%    Eric Decker    NYJ    2014    ($36M, 5 yr)
5.42%    Donte Moncrief    JAC    2018    ($10M, 1 yr)
5.39%    Laurent Robinson    JAC    2012    ($33M, 5 yr)
5.37%    Robert Meachem    SD    2012    ($26M, 4 yr)
5.31%    Devin Funchess    IND    2019    ($10M, 1 yr)
5.15%    Marvin Jones    DET    2016    ($40M, 5 yr)
5.05%    Jamison Crowder    NYJ    2019    ($29M, 3 yr)
4.89%    Andre Johnson    IND    2015    ($21M, 3 yr)
4.88%    Wes Welker    DEN    2013    ($12M, 2 yr)
4.87%    Kenny Britt    CLE    2017    ($33M, 4 yr)
4.84%    Reggie Wayne    IND    2012    ($18M, 3 yr)
4.80%    Marqise Lee    JAC    2018    ($34M, 4 yr)
4.78%    Adam Humphries    TEN    2019    ($36M, 4 yr)
4.78%    John Brown    BUF    2019    ($27M, 3 yr)
4.77%    Josh Morgan    WAS    2012    ($12M, 2 yr)
4.66%    Golden Tate    DET    2014    ($31M, 5 yr)
4.63%    Danny Amendola    NE    2013    ($29M, 5 yr)
4.51%    Paul Richardson    WAS    2018    ($40M, 5 yr)
4.51%    Albert Wilson    MIA    2018    ($24M, 3 yr)
4.51%    DeSean Jackson    WAS    2014    ($24M, 4 yr)
Click to expand...
So in the last 8 years, 27% of the top 15 WR contracts came in this single year.... so far.  I'd say thats significant.   Especially considering there's some big names in that group and Funchess, Crowder, Humphries, and Brown aren't exactly in the same tier as most of those guys.

 
Deamon said:
So in the last 8 years, 27% of the top 15 WR contracts came in this single year.... so far.  I'd say thats significant.   Especially considering there's some big names in that group and Funchess, Crowder, Humphries, and Brown aren't exactly in the same tier as most of those guys.
Click to expand...
These aren't the top contracts, just the ones that are closest in value to this year's top guys (4.50%-5.50% of the cap). Funchess has the 18th largest FA WR contract over the past 9 years. The top 13 (not shown in the previous list) are:

9.76%    Mike Wallace    MIA    2013    ($60M, 5 yr)
9.21%    Vincent Jackson    TB    2012    ($56M, 5 yr)
9.03%    Sammy Watkins    KC    2018    ($48M, 3 yr)
7.90%    Allen Robinson    CHI    2018    ($42M, 3 yr)
7.68%    Jeremy Maclin    KC    2015    ($55M, 5 yr)
7.50%    Santonio Holmes    NYJ    2011    ($45M, 5 yr)
7.32%    Greg Jennings    MIN    2013    ($45M, 5 yr)
7.05%    Pierre Garcon    WAS    2012    ($43M, 5 yr)
6.83%    Sidney Rice    SEA    2011    ($41M, 5 yr)
6.69%    DeSean Jackson    TB    2017    ($34M, 3 yr)
5.69%    Pierre Garcon    SF    2017    ($48M, 5 yr)
5.69%    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    2017    ($10M, 1 yr)
5.58%    Torrey Smith    SF    2015    ($40M, 5 yr)

This excludes trade and re-sign deals like Antonio Brown 2019 or Jarvis Landry 2018, as well as contract extensions and guys who re-signed with their team before the start of free agency (Antonio Brown 2017, Jordy Nelson 2014, etc.).

Also, note that most of the big names in my previous list were well past their prime. DJax was the biggest name whose new contract really panned out.

 
ZWK said:
These aren't the top contracts, just the ones that are closest in value to this year's top guys (4.50%-5.50% of the cap). Funchess has the 18th largest FA WR contract over the past 9 years. The top 13 (not shown in the previous list) are:

9.76%    Mike Wallace    MIA    2013    ($60M, 5 yr)
9.21%    Vincent Jackson    TB    2012    ($56M, 5 yr)
9.03%    Sammy Watkins    KC    2018    ($48M, 3 yr)
7.90%    Allen Robinson    CHI    2018    ($42M, 3 yr)
7.68%    Jeremy Maclin    KC    2015    ($55M, 5 yr)
7.50%    Santonio Holmes    NYJ    2011    ($45M, 5 yr)
7.32%    Greg Jennings    MIN    2013    ($45M, 5 yr)
7.05%    Pierre Garcon    WAS    2012    ($43M, 5 yr)
6.83%    Sidney Rice    SEA    2011    ($41M, 5 yr)
6.69%    DeSean Jackson    TB    2017    ($34M, 3 yr)
5.69%    Pierre Garcon    SF    2017    ($48M, 5 yr)
5.69%    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    2017    ($10M, 1 yr)
5.58%    Torrey Smith    SF    2015    ($40M, 5 yr)

This excludes trade and re-sign deals like Antonio Brown 2019 or Jarvis Landry 2018, as well as contract extensions and guys who re-signed with their team before the start of free agency (Antonio Brown 2017, Jordy Nelson 2014, etc.).

Also, note that most of the big names in my previous list were well past their prime. DJax was the biggest name whose new contract really panned out.
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ah ok, my bad... thought that was a full list.  I Still think those funchess, brown, crowder, humphries contracts are too big though.

 
The cap went up and there are big money signings of so so players every year. You just forget about it immediately because they are marginal players ie Mike Wallace getting paaaaaid by the Eagles. 

 
The reason mediocre players get paid so much in FA is there simply isn't enough good players to spend the money on. Teams are force to spend a certain amount of their cap space every year. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I say this pretty much every year, but teams should be looking at what NE does and trying to emulate their strategies. Other than Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots rarely dabble in the first chaotic wave of free agency. In fact, Bill Belichick was photographed today on the beach in Barbados on vacation. They thrive on letting teams over pay and getting into albatross contracts while waiting idly by waiting for players that will be way less costly but will fit their system and perform pretty well. As a for instance, NE's entire grouping of RB's and WR's cost less last year than what Antonio Brown will make this year.
Click to expand...
If our world is really a simulation, I hope that whenever my personal run ends, I get a shot to see another version of the simulation where Belichick doesn't have Brady as his QB to see how his entire methodology plays out. Or he gets the Brady who doesn't have a billionaire wife and carries a $30MM cap hit instead.

 
Milkman said:
The reason mediocre players get paid so much in FA is there simply isn't enough good players to spend the money on. 
Click to expand...
Yep. NFL talent is a bell curve. At each position on the field there are 5-6 game-changing talents, 5-6 starters who are replacement-level, and the remainder of starters are somewhere in the fat part of the curve.

Of course, nearly all of the game-changers and most of the better players in that fat part of the curve are tied down, either because they're on rookie contracts (remember the average NFL tenure is about 4 years) or because their teams recognized their talent and locked them up early. If everyone has additional money and there are a fixed number of above replacement-level players to spend it on, those guys are gonna get paid more. Simple.

 
RUSF18 said:
If our world is really a simulation, I hope that whenever my personal run ends, I get a shot to see another version of the simulation where Belichick doesn't have Brady as his QB to see how his entire methodology plays out. Or he gets the Brady who doesn't have a billionaire wife and carries a $30MM cap hit instead.
Click to expand...
Certainly Brady cures a lot of ills. It has been estimated that Brady has taken roughly $4-5 million a year less than he should have made on average per year across his career. Every little bit helps, but that alone is not enough to overload on talent at other positions.

BB and NE have mastered a bunch of things that other teams have not . . . roster management, salary cap economics, and tapping into the ever changing concept of situational football. Let's start with the last one first. BB has been able to identify guys that fit his system and can excel in certain situations. They can then go after role players that are not three down players, stock up on them to build depth, and pay them SIGNIFICANTLY less than the crazy contracts that are getting handed out.

I posted in several other threads that Antonio Brown is going to be paid more this season (between bonuses and salary) than the entire grouping of Patriots WR and RB did last year. Brown could post some great totals, but he won't produce more than almost an entire team of skill position players.

There are plenty of other examples. NE let Nate Solder walk last year . . . he of the 0 Pro Bowl appearances. He signed the largest contract ever for an offensive lineman. The Patriots turned that into a third round compensatory pick. They drafted OL help in the first round and added Trent Brown by dropping down 48 picks in the draft. They paid Brown $1.9 million for last year instead of the $17 million that Solder got and won a Super Bowl. They just let Brown walk (also with 0 Pro Bowl selections) to again sign the highest contract ever for an offensive lineman and will likely pick up another third round compensatory pick for him next season.

Another good example is Malcolm Butler. Butler's play was slipping, he wanted top dollar, and the team let him walk. He signed a $12.25 million a year deal with the Titans. NE acquired Jason McCourty on the cheap (flip flopping a 6th round pick for a 7th round pick) with only a $3.3 million cap hit. McCourty ranked as the #6 CB in football last year by PFF. Butler ranked 57th. NE also added Josh Jackson as an UDFA, who ended up starting by the end of the year. So they added another third round compensatory pick while getting more production and ending up with two starters for far less money (and another SB win).

Look at other key pieces that NE gave up on or let walk. Jamie Collins, Chandler Jones, and now Trey Flowers. They won't shell out huge money because they understand that in the long run it weakens their team. They have been to 4 of the past 5 Super Bowls when people each year said there would be no way for them to overcome the huge talent loss from players departing the team. They acquired and moved on from Brandin Cooks and let the Rams sign him to an $81 million while getting a better draft pick back then what they gave the Saints.

NE has thrived . . . excelled . . . at building the best 53-man roster, not trying to sign the best 5 players with 48 other JAGs to fill out the roster. Yes, Brady is good enough to work with some average players and make things work, but BB has stocked the cupboard with players that can be productive on the cheap and sustain a very competitive team over and over and over again.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Jim Nagy‏Verified account @JimNagy_SB

Most teams spending big money in FA are run by GMs in win-now mode. Think about it, there was zero turnover at the GM level this year...that’s incredible in such a volatile league. I’m sure plenty were put on alert by their owners. This is why big spending usually happens.

6:03 AM - 12 Mar 2019
Click to expand...
I was going to say desperation but win now works too. 

This FA will have some of the worst deals in a long, long time IMO. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Last year Moncrief, Paul Richardson, Albert Wilson, and Marquise Lee got deals in the same range as those guys.

ARob got $14 mil/yr and Watkins got $16 mil/yr
Click to expand...
And Landry got $15.1M/yr. 

 
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