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Dr. Dan

Is WR the most replaceable position?

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We've seen 2 of the best in the game traded away this offseason, and I think the consensus would be that their former teams didnt get enough value... but is that the going rate these days? 

The excuse for Brown was that the Steelers had little leverage due to Brown's tantrum and wanting out so badly. His age didn't help. I still think they didn't get enough return. 

OBJ is traded and leaves many of us scratching our heads. Guy is locked up long term, one of the best right now, and still very young... and that's all he gets you?

 

Us GB fans have seen WRs leave in search of big deals, and flop badly, since the days of Antonio Freeman. Many WRs have left and amounted to nothing. Not saying Eli Manning is on par with Rodgers and Favee... but speaking from experience, it seems to be that WRs are extremely replaceable. 

 

So maybe this is the value of WRs in today's NFL?

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

If you have a elite QB WR do not matter as much.

See Packers Saints and Tom Brady.

If you dont then WR matter more. See Case Keenum.

This sounds right. The overall WR talent pool in the NFL is pretty thin right now which is why receivers like Humphries and Funchess and Crowder are getting around 10 mil per year.

You cited the reasons why OBJ and AB are incredibly bizarre situations. I don't think they represent the perceived value placed on the position overall. Most teams clutch onto their star receivers for dear life, with the exception of the Packers, Saints and Pats.

Meanwhile the Giants and Steelers are getting routinely trashed not getting more. The reality is they got bullied by their star receivers and had no choice but to take whatever they could get.

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8 minutes ago, Apple Juice said:

This sounds right. The overall WR talent pool in the NFL is pretty thin right now which is why receivers like Humphries and Funchess and Crowder are getting around 10 mil per year.

You cited the reasons why OBJ and AB are incredibly bizarre situations. I don't think they represent the perceived value placed on the position overall. Most teams clutch onto their star receivers for dear life, with the exception of the Packers, Saints and Pats.

Meanwhile the Giants and Steelers are getting routinely trashed not getting more. The reality is they got bullied by their star receivers and had no choice but to take whatever they could get.

This. Other teams knew the situation and there was no way either team was going to get 100% return on those guys. Not even close and they had no choice but to settle for it because the relationship was just not salvageable. 

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Great WR are generally valued and kept. Brown was for many years, AJ Green and Julio too. 

Diva players, less so. 

Edit: of the players, the leaving receivers:

1 Larry Fitzgerald

2 Brandon Marshall

3 Antonio Gates

4 Antonio Brown

5 Julio Jones

6 DeSean Jackson

7 Demaryius Thomas

8 A.J. Green

9 Jordy Nelson

10 T.Y. Hilton

Most of these guys played with one team until this past year.  I don't recall why Nelson left, Thomas seemed to be losing a step, Brown is a diva.

Edited by -OZ-

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I think this has a lot to do with their mental makeup though as well.  AB and OBJ both have "I will be the best WR ever, and I deserve to be paid like it" attitude, vs some others in the past, Larry Fitzgerald for example, who's mentality seems to be more of "I know I'm great, pay me what I'm worth and I'll remain in 1 franchise for my career and become a legend to them".  AB passed up that opportunity to be royalty to Steelers fans, while OBJ seems to driven out of town so not quite the same.  Either way I think those are contributing factors to wanting to move on.  

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14 minutes ago, Apple Juice said:

The reality is they got bullied by their star receivers and had no choice but to take whatever they could get.

Honest question: Did OBJ throw a private tantrum that we didn't see, or did I miss it? 

The post 2 above this one seems about right... Divas dont stick around. 

 

 

When Dallas traded a lower half 1st for Amari Cooper, most people thought it was a mistake... now it looks like a bargain given Cooper turned it around...

 

What would Coopers value be today in a trade? especially considering what NY got for OBJ...

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11 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Great WR are generally valued and kept. Brown was for many years, AJ Green and Julio too. 

Diva players, less so. 

Edit: of the players, the leaving receivers:

1 Larry Fitzgerald

2 Brandon Marshall

3 Antonio Gates

4 Antonio Brown

5 Julio Jones

6 DeSean Jackson

7 Demaryius Thomas

8 A.J. Green

9 Jordy Nelson

10 T.Y. Hilton

Most of these guys played with one team until this past year.  I don't recall why Nelson left, Thomas seemed to be losing a step, Brown is a diva.

And a reason to cite that WR's might be overrated to team success is the number of SB win's among that list is 2 and that had a lot more to do with Peyton and Rodgers.

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

And a reason to cite that WR's might be overrated to team success is the number of SB win's among that list is 2 and that had a lot more to do with Peyton and Rodgers.

Right. It seems the recipe to win a super often does not include a top notch, big name, stud wr

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2 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

As long as teams are still fielding running backs, no, it's not the most replaceable position.

 

Was just about to say the same thing

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Eh, as a steeler fan I am pissed how brown did what he did. But the Steelers churn out receivers like clock work, and I'm glad they got rid of him now. He is headed down a very bad path. They won nothing with him, so what are they really losing. Raiders aren't winning anything with that psycho.

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6 minutes ago, irish eyes said:

Eh, as a steeler fan I am pissed how brown did what he did. But the Steelers churn out receivers like clock work, and I'm glad they got rid of him now. He is headed down a very bad path. They won nothing with him, so what are they really losing. Raiders aren't winning anything with that psycho.

Plus Brown was getting a little jealous of the Shuster love.

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49 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

As long as teams are still fielding running backs, no, it's not the most replaceable position.

Guards and inside linebackers too.

I'll take a HOF inside linebacker over an HOF RB any day. 

From what I can see, solid guards are almost a necessity, elite guards aren't as important.  

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The Browns gave up a 1st round pick and more for the right to pay Beckham over $15M per year. That's a pretty big commitment - no team has been willing to pay any RB, OG, C, TE, or S $15M/yr even when it didn't cost them any draft picks.

Everyone besides the quarterback is fairly replaceable - we've seen guys like Brady, Manning, and Brees have success while the entire rest of the roster turned over. I don't think WR is especially replaceable. If you look at a great QB's career year, he usually had a strong receiving corps that year (Brady's 2007 was with Moss & Welker).

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3 minutes ago, ZWK said:

The Browns gave up a 1st round pick and more for the right to pay Beckham over $15M per year. That's a pretty big commitment - no team has been willing to pay any RB, OG, C, TE, or S $15M/yr even when it didn't cost them any draft picks.

Everyone besides the quarterback is fairly replaceable - we've seen guys like Brady, Manning, and Brees have success while the entire rest of the roster turned over. I don't think WR is especially replaceable. If you look at a great QB's career year, he usually had a strong receiving corps that year (Brady's 2007 was with Moss & Welker).

That's almost exactly what Landon Collins got.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Right. It seems the recipe to win a super often does not include a top notch, big name, stud wr

We can say the same about lots of positions when looking over a small sample size. I don’t see any teams having a won a SB recently with an all pro left tackle. Tyron Smith, David Bakhiatari, Joe Thomas,  Whitworth, Trent Williams, Duane Brown, Armstead. None of the All Pro LTs have a ring. Do we think LT is easily replaceable or not part of a winning strategy?

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45 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I'll take a HOF inside linebacker over an HOF RB any day. 

From what I can see, solid guards are almost a necessity, elite guards aren't as important.  

Yeah maybe maybe not, but we're not talking HOFers, we're talking replacement level.  Opposite end of the spectrum.

Having solid guards are important but you can find them everywhere.  It's a low bar to clear if you can evaluate at a basic level.

It's not really a matter of debate though because the league has spoken.  All you have to do is look at the size of contracts and draft capital spent and it'll tell you those are the lowest regarded positions.

 

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

What the Raiders got for Khalil Mack was pretty comparable to what the Giants got for Beckham.

hmmm... not a bad point. however, Chicago ended up paying him a huge salary as well. giants ate a bunch is my understanding, could be wrong

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11 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Raiders got 2 1sts. That return seems quite a bit better. 

Jabril Peppers was a 1st round pick so that makes 2 1sts. WIth the option they control Peppers rights for 3 years if they want to.

He may not be as good as Collins, but he does replace a quality position that they had a hole in.

I thought Barney Rubble made a good point about looking at both of the deals the Browns and Giants did as one package, and it makes more sense that way. I kind of thought the Giants won that trade, while the OBJ trade maybe the Browns win that one. Put them both together and I think the value is really close and makes sense.

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I'd say Safety is the most replaceable position at the moment. Like 5 pro bowl caliber guys switched teams this off season, as well as another handful of well above average starters.

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32 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'd say Safety is the most replaceable position at the moment. Like 5 pro bowl caliber guys switched teams this off season, as well as another handful of well above average starters.

This has been by far the richest safety class in free agency in years.  Usually it's very slim pickings.

Strong has a lower value for sure, but a true centerfielding free is viewed as a premium position around the league.

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In 2015 the Falcons moved up from the 27th pick to the 6th to get Juilo Jones. They swapped 1st rounders and got a second, and fourth-round picks from that year, then a 2016 first and fourth-rounder. I think for guys like Antonio Brown and OBJr. you think you could get like a 1st and a 2nd or something...

 

Obviously with AB the situation was different. He's 30, wanted big money and had more (?) of a diva attitude; there weren't many teams who could pay him and give up the draft capital. OBJr. was a bit different though, he arguably hasn't reached his prime and already is locked into a contract. I know someone said Peppers is essentially a locked-in-contract 1st, so that should be 2 1sts and a 3rd... ehhhh. I mean Giants didn't even get Cleveland's higher 3rd rounder! To me the trade value of a Top WR is either depressed, or football trades for established (problematic) players don't have the same return like in the NBA or MLB.

Edited by The Frankman
Whoops, put the wrong team on the copy/paste

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13 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

In 2015 the Browns moved up from the 27th pick to the 6th to get Juilo Jones. They swapped 1st rounders and got a second, and fourth-round picks from that year, then a 2016 first and fourth-rounder. I think for guys like Antonio Brown and OBJr. you think you could get like a 1st and a 2nd or something...

 

Obviously with AB the situation was different. He's 30, wanted big money and had more (?) of a diva attitude; there weren't many teams who could pay him and give up the draft capital. OBJr. was a bit different though, he arguably hasn't reached his prime and already is locked into a contract. I know someone said Peppers is essentially a locked-in-contract 1st, so that should be 2 1sts and a 3rd... ehhhh. I mean Giants didn't even get Cleveland's higher 3rd rounder! To me the trade value of a Top WR is either depressed, or football trades for established (problematic) players don't have the same return like in the NBA or MLB.

What alternate universe are you living in hahaha

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6 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

What alternate universe are you living in hahaha

Whoops copy paste fail. Editing now.

Edited by The Frankman

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3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Yeah maybe maybe not, but we're not talking HOFers, we're talking replacement level.  Opposite end of the spectrum.

Having solid guards are important but you can find them everywhere.  It's a low bar to clear if you can evaluate at a basic level.

It's not really a matter of debate though because the league has spoken.  All you have to do is look at the size of contracts and draft capital spent and it'll tell you those are the lowest regarded positions.

 

The op started this because of Beckham/AB, so we're really talking both - replacing Hof talent.

You don't see many elite guards being traded but you do see some really good ones leaving in free agency.  

Agree with your last point for sure, provided you look over time and not just the last class or two. 

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37 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

In 2015 the Falcons moved up from the 27th pick to the 6th to get Juilo Jones. They swapped 1st rounders and got a second, and fourth-round picks from that year, then a 2016 first and fourth-rounder. I think for guys like Antonio Brown and OBJr. you think you could get like a 1st and a 2nd or something...

 

Obviously with AB the situation was different. He's 30, wanted big money and had more (?) of a diva attitude; there weren't many teams who could pay him and give up the draft capital. OBJr. was a bit different though, he arguably hasn't reached his prime and already is locked into a contract. I know someone said Peppers is essentially a locked-in-contract 1st, so that should be 2 1sts and a 3rd... ehhhh. I mean Giants didn't even get Cleveland's higher 3rd rounder! To me the trade value of a Top WR is either depressed, or football trades for established (problematic) players don't have the same return like in the NBA or MLB.

I think the bolded is true. 

Didn't TO have a hard time finding a team towards the end of his career? Kaepernick couldn't find a team in free agency. Bell held out to no real benefit, although he signed this year rather quickly. 

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10 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Jabril Peppers was a 1st round pick so that makes 2 1sts. WIth the option they control Peppers rights for 3 years if they want to.

He may not be as good as Collins, but he does replace a quality position that they had a hole in.

I thought Barney Rubble made a good point about looking at both of the deals the Browns and Giants did as one package, and it makes more sense that way. I kind of thought the Giants won that trade, while the OBJ trade maybe the Browns win that one. Put them both together and I think the value is really close and makes sense.

1

Matt Kelley speculated that the first trade might have been a greasing of the wheels or a sign of good faith by Cleveland to help facilitate the OBJ trade. 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Matt Kelley speculated that the first trade might have been a greasing of the wheels or a sign of good faith by Cleveland to help facilitate the OBJ trade. 

I think Zeitler was the better player in that deal so saw it in the Giants favor.

The 2nd deal more in the Brown favor. So we see that differently.

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12 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I think Zeitler was the better player in that deal so saw it in the Giants favor.

The 2nd deal more in the Brown favor. So we see that differently.

I don’t think that’s disagreeing at all, it’s exactly what he was implying.

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3 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I don’t think that’s disagreeing at all, it’s exactly what he was implying.

Hmm

If the first deal was loosening up the Browns that suggests to me that Kelly thought the Browns won that deal. I don't think they did, so that would be a different view on the trades.

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20 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Hmm

If the first deal was loosening up the Browns that suggests to me that Kelly thought the Browns won that deal. I don't think they did, so that would be a different view on the trades.

Other way around. Maybe I worded it poorly. Browns were greasing the wheels and showing good faith as trade partners in the first deal with the hopes of getting the OBJ deal done. 

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5 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Other way around. Maybe I worded it poorly. Browns were greasing the wheels and showing good faith as trade partners in the first deal with the hopes of getting the OBJ deal done. 

Ah. Then Kelly and I concur (for a change).

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