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Fair. I am not a Democrat either but I plan to support them at least until Trump is gone.
I agree. I don't think progressive or centrist will matter anywhere near as much as the personality of the person. I think more voters than some of us nerds here like to think vote more on feel than issues.
I'm not a ####### conservative, but keep making baseless assumptions, like the other team... And I'm the genius.
Well, by November 2020 he'll have been responsible for four years of no progress for the working man.
Does that matter? As long we haven't hit an early stage recession, I don't think that will actually matter.
Maybe not, The Don is the master of deflecting responsibility. But perhaps the definition of "working man" is slowly changing around us. Women are an increasingly a larger and more influential portion of the work force and our newest (and eventually most numerous) voters are joining an economy where fewer and fewer employers offer traditional benefits (hell, media outlets are now advertising jobs with no pay beyond the exposure you might get to other outlets who might pay); the "contract" gig is becoming the norm among our youngest workers. Those voters already swing anti-Donald by 25 points (and it's almost 50 points among young women with college degrees) and they constitute the deepest pool for the Dems to plumb.
Difference is we have someone who has been preaching it for 40 years and even people that disagree with him say they trust him. Let's try a little honest and to the left populism. No hate for the other.
Unwinnable jungle war in a region w Socialist bona fides. Perfect stasis to rally supporters & shut up snowflakes. Were i Team Trump, i'd be CIAing the #### outta that.
Sadly, I 100% agree. Honestly, even with a recession, I'm not so sure these people will care. He'll blame someone and something and they'll buy it.
Holy shnikies - we must be psychic. While we were posting these, Cletius posted this
I guess the goalposts have moved so far that a centrist is a moderate Republican.
What you seem to keep missing is the middle is further to the left than the centrists want to go. Poll after poll shows this when we talk policy.
I can read polls I dont have to make things up.Progressives see things as they want to see them
then you are reading into what I said. I guess that makes you wrong, although I am liberal on some issues
Maybe this is a case like another one we had a while ago, where opponents of single payer tell pollsters that they're actually in favor of it to make libbies overconfident.
To be fair, I think a super liberal or a super conservative would make this comment, but based on the quotes surrounding it, it comes across as very liberal, so that was my opinion.
I remember another time, I believe it was around November 2016 where there was some overconfidence from the left.
Only from those who don't understand margin of error. She was not outside that margin come election night. I said from the beginning choosing Hillary was pushing your luck.
This would actually makes sense, and is what Matt Tiabbi and Glenn Greenwald have been saying. But Pelosi and other Democrats are already trying repackage the Russia hoax. So you guys are pretty screwed until 2024 it looks like.
I say that because I was a Republican for 3 decades that turned independent after Ws first term. after what I've seen in 2016 through today by our elected Republican leaders, there is no chance any Republican gets a vote from me so I don't want to call myself independent any more. I think there are a lot of people like me and we're democrats for the time being.
This is how I've seen it too from a purely strategy angle. But people with much more political knowledge than I have tell me that's not how it works. So- Stop discussing the Mueller probe, like today... Forget it happened - Americans have short memories, we're pretty stupid, erase it from the playbook, it's a huge win for Trump, he basically #### on the Dems. Move the #### on!
- Stop with the super progressive bull#### - you will not win enough independent and conservative voters over to beat him.
Now, let's move on, because this is really not complicated and doesn't need to be. Trump has a base, and that base will vote for him regardless of anything - he had a total of just under 63mm votes in 2016. Let's make a few assumptions:
1) That base is what it is, however, that base most likely is not growing much. We knew who he was in 2016, nothing has changed. Of those 63mm that voted for him, the trickiest part is determining what percentage are truly his base, and how many of the remaining voted for him bc they were partisan hacks or simply hated Hillary that much.
2) 63mm is close to his ceiling and there have to be some people in there who have had enough with this guy.
3) Hillary had just
So, the question is very simple, who beats Trump?
The answer is also very simple, a centrist, as long as the Dems and their voters get behind it, which they obviously won't. Your super progressive candidates like Sanders have no chance, you won't be able to win anyone over nor get the turnout needed to do so. It's a shame, but the Dems will #### this up and I'm pretty sure we'll be dealing with Trump for almost 6 more years, it's awful
24% of Americans identify as Republicans. Of that some 80% seem to be pretty solid Trump. That would be roughly 19% of the population. Seems beatable but you have to show up.This is how I've seen it too from a purely strategy angle. But people with much more political knowledge than I have tell me that's not how it works. So
I will say I don't see President Trump's base growing at all. I think 2016 was the ceiling. I think he got his "base" plus all the people who generally lean Republican or Conservative. They voted Trump saying he was the lesser of two bad choices and hoped for the best. While the base is the base and I think it's true for just about any base that they're not moving much, I think there were a LOT of 2016 Trump voters who don't fall in the "Trump base" class. I know quite a few. And I think they ARE up for grabs.
But they will only move so far from where they are. If they're slightly right, I don't think they're going to end of the left spectrum. They'll maybe cross over the middle into "left" territory. But they won't go too far.
So whether they vote for the candidate opposite Trump in 2020 will be entirely dependent on where the Democratic candidate stands. Too far left and they "hold their nose" and vote Trump again.
Just my take.
I'd agree with that.
You shouldn't believe polls. I guarantee you there are a lot more Americans than 24% that really identify as Republicans and it shows up in the voting booth, not in some poll.
For a guy so loose with guarantees you don't seem to bring much beyond your gut to the discussion.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
Actually the 2016 polls were very accurate in terms of party affiliation.
I love it when you guys fall into the echo chamber. The polls were right. She won 3 million more votes. A few hundred thousand votes in a couple of states flipped the EC.
That's right keep underestimating Trump. It's been a big failure for you democrats so far.
Almost every 2016 poll was within the margin of error. A few polls in swing states predicted the wrong winner, but they were still within the margin of error.
I've asked Trump supporters time and time again where they think he's picking up new votes in '20. If you think he will be re-elected, this will be an excellent time for you to explain your reasoning.JohnnyU said:
You're wrong about this.ffldrew said:
