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Half Court Shots  

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1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

$5mm tax free over 2.5 years is the equivalent to earning $3mm a year on the books, it's a nice amount of money. 

True but you don't get the money once you get out.  Not only to you lose the money you lose 2.5 yrs of your life.  If it was a both thing I would give it much more consideration.  You get the money free in clear of you make one and you get the money after 2.5 yrs of jail if you don't make one.  That is a lot more tempting. 

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Great hypothetical.  I'm pretty confident I could make 1 out of 10, but not sure that is enough to risk it for serving time in the clink.  

20 shots for $2.5M though, I would absolutely risk it. 

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2 hours ago, Zow said:

Some of you really overestimating the amount of prison rape that occurs.  

It’s not rape if I consent.  

 

 

Wait, that’s not right.

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What if we're talking solitary confinement - 8x10 cell, just you for 23 hours a day, 1 hour of time in the yard. 

Does that change anyone's risk profile?

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2 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Whelp, I'm rich #####es! 

Made: 1 of 10

Drew iron: 6 of 10

Air balls: 0 of 10

The make was on the 4th attempt, after the 3rd rimmed out. I would say about half felt like they had a decent chance coming out of my hand and the other half I knew were off as soon as I released.

Now tell some kid to kick you in the nuts if you don't make 1 of 10.  See how that goes.

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4 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

What if we're talking solitary confinement - 8x10 cell, just you for 23 hours a day, 1 hour of time in the yard. 

Does that change anyone's risk profile?

Slightly but probably not too much - like Woz said we probably overrate how much rape and murder go on in prison.  I’m the primary earner and in my prime earning years.  If you take 2.5 years away that has large financial ramifications even ignoring the possible ### raping.  And the vast majority of my life insurance is through my work so if I get murdered in prison my wife would be in a bad spot.

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I would give it a shot.  I play lots of basketball though, and would definitely do it on a standard-sized HS court.  I've emulated these "10 shots for $1B from halfcourt or you die" with friends in the gym and have always made at least 1 of 10 and I don't really think the real-life pressure would impact me (I mean 2.5 years in prison isn't as bad as dying, right?).  

Now if I had to throw a football through a moving target, hell no.  Or not double fault on a tennis serve, or make one 10-foot putt, no way.  I can't think of another sport I play that I'd take this gamble on.  

 

 

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I'm a little surprised at some of the confidence here. I wouldn't think that even guys like Steph Curry or Kevin Love could make one in ten from halfcourt with any kind of consistency.

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33 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I'm a little surprised at some of the confidence here. I wouldn't think that even guys like Steph Curry or Kevin Love could make one in ten from halfcourt with any kind of consistency.

It would be pretty easy for Curry imo

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43 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I'm a little surprised at some of the confidence here. I wouldn't think that even guys like Steph Curry or Kevin Love could make one in ten from halfcourt with any kind of consistency.

I would disagree.  I would guess that Curry would be about a 25% make percentage unguarded from half court. 

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42 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I'm a little surprised at some of the confidence here. I wouldn't think that even guys like Steph Curry or Kevin Love could make one in ten from halfcourt with any kind of consistency.

I heard this bit on the radio the other day (I assume that's where the OP got it from too). They started down the path of bringing in a ringer (like s Steph Curry, or an in-his-prime Larry Bird) to take your shots, but doing so knocks down your payout significantly if you aren't actually shooting the shots. So they were assigning dollar values to letting the ringers take the shots. 

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8 minutes ago, Gally said:

I would disagree.  I would guess that Curry would be about a 25% make percentage unguarded from half court. 

I think he is 3/15 in this video (don't go past 1:15 lol):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWqCJxZjykA

Since 2014, he's shot 48% from 30-35 ft - game situations with defenders.  I can't imagine that realistically dips below 10% for half court in non-game setting

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25771897/steph-curry-unleashing-impossible-range

He's probably the worst example on earth to use.

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4 hours ago, Zow said:

Some of you really overestimating the amount of prison rape that occurs.  

 

I wouldn't be so concerned about that.  It's the 2.5 years away from family with all individuals freedom being taken away.  That's a big big deal to me. 

It only has to happen once.  I'm betting the percentage is better than me making a half court shot.  I've got a real purdy mouth.

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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I'm actually at the gym right now. Going to try and simulate the mindset of this being for real (not really possible I know) and try it. 

Will report back.

Yeah, I'm thinking if I'm given 25 shots, I'd take the bet.

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If I could negotiate the jail terms to solitary confinement in a clean cell with a couple of meditation apps, a well stocked bookshelf, Netflix/Amazon video, and 3 squares a day, I'd do it.

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Yeah it is not that easy. All you have to do is watch the All-Stars Skills thing they do with the WBNA/Veteran/Current NBA player team where they shoot from half-court. It sometimes takes them forever to hit that half court shot. 

I would consider risking this for 30 days in county jail and I get 25 attempts. 

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20 shots, 6 months - I'd do it.

I'd also try to negotiate an extra 500K for every made shot after the first one.

I'd feel highly confident with 20 shots under no pressure.

20 shots with that kind of pressure though... I agree it would make it tougher, especially once you got to 10 without a bucket. :oldunsure: 

I'd still do it though.

Basketball player in my glory days... and I always loved shooting from half court after practice or any time I played on outside courts.

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I can't imagine the mental aspect of spending 2.5 years in jail with nothing to do except replay all ten of your missed shots over and over in your head. The second you miss #10 you're off to jail to ponder for 2.5 years that if your 8th shot was just 2 inches left you'd be a millionaire on a beach somewhere right now vs. sitting in jail away from your loved ones.

To me that'd be magnitudes worse than a run of the mill jail term for something criminal you did. No effin' way I'd try it for any amount of money - and I'm pretty sure I'd hit at least one in ten about 90% of the time. No freaking way. You'd kill yourself over the mental anguish of knowing how close you were to setting you and your family up for life. And you'd have 2.5 years to do nothing but think about it. It'd be horrific. Just the thought is giving me the heebie jeebies. No amount of money.

Edited by LC512

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1 hour ago, LC512 said:

I can't imagine the mental aspect of spending 2.5 years in jail with nothing to do except replay all ten of your missed shots over and over in your head. The second you miss #10 you're off to jail to ponder for 2.5 years that if your 8th shot was just 2 inches left you'd be a millionaire on a beach somewhere right now vs. sitting in jail away from your loved ones.

To me that'd be magnitudes worse than a run of the mill jail term for something criminal you did. No effin' way I'd try it for any amount of money - and I'm pretty sure I'd hit at least one in ten about 90% of the time. No freaking way. You'd kill yourself over the mental anguish of knowing how close you were to setting you and your family up for life. And you'd have 2.5 years to do nothing but think about it. It'd be horrific. Just the thought is giving me the heebie jeebies. No amount of money.

Except you would get one hour of exercise time to practice more half court shots on the prison hoop and then get to try again in another 2.5 years.

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12 hours ago, Mister CIA said:

If I could negotiate the jail terms to solitary confinement in a clean cell with a couple of meditation apps, a well stocked bookshelf, Netflix/Amazon video, and 3 squares a day, I'd do it.

Or what I'd call "vacation" 

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9 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

Except you would get one hour of exercise time to practice more half court shots on the prison hoop and then get to try again in another 2.5 years.

🤣

"And let's introduce one our favorite contestants Joe Johnson from Nashville, back for his third shot. After spending five years in the clink he's divorced and his kids hate him, but if he can make one of these ten shots..." 

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16 minutes ago, Buttonhook said:

🤣

"And let's introduce one our favorite contestants Joe Johnson from Nashville, back for his third shot. After spending five years in the clink he's divorced and his kids hate him, but if he can make one of these ten shots..." 

25 years later... He makes the shot!

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15 hours ago, Buttonhook said:

 Or not double fault on a tennis serve, .  

 

 

This one I would definitely do. Super easy to just lob one of them over and get it in

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1 minute ago, the moops said:

This one I would definitely do. Super easy to just lob one of them over and get it in

What if it had to be a normal overhand serve?

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15 hours ago, Mister CIA said:

If I could negotiate the jail terms to solitary confinement in a clean cell with a couple of meditation apps, a well stocked bookshelf, Netflix/Amazon video, and 3 squares a day, I'd do it.

This sounds better than my regular life

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4 hours ago, the moops said:

This one I would definitely do. Super easy to just lob one of them over and get it in

I think you are underestimating the pressure you would feel right as you are about to execute one of your easy lobs......I can feel my right arm tightening up right now just thinking about it overhand or underhand....of course I don't play tennis....but I'm not sure it would matter

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I’m sure it’s been mentioned, but I’d take the bet so long as I could take my ten shots whenever I want.

I’d train for and take the first nine shots and then , assuming I’d missed them all, wait until I’m 85 to take the tenth. 

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Today's stats

Made: 2 of 10

Rim: 6 of 10

Airball: 1 of 10

Makes were back to back on 8th and 9th shot. 

 

Overall on 2 attempts so far

Cash money: $10mil

Jail time: 0

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21 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

What if we're talking solitary confinement - 8x10 cell, just you for 23 hours a day, 1 hour of time in the yard. 

Does that change anyone's risk profile?

For 2.5 years???  No.

How about if I just hit the backboard for 50 grand?

Edited by Scott Tenorman

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28 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Today's stats

Made: 2 of 10

Rim: 6 of 10

Airball: 1 of 10

Makes were back to back on 8th and 9th shot. 

 

Overall on 2 attempts so far

Cash money: $10mil

Jail time: 0

You are 3/20?

Assuming 15% is your true chance of making it and independent shots (don't get tired, don't pucker), ~20% chance you go 0/10.  ~4% chance you go 0/20.

Do you take the chance at 10?

 

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On 3/26/2019 at 11:45 AM, MAC_32 said:

I do a little basketball workout when closing down the gym during basketball season.  Shot from the box, foul shot, three pointer - repeat a few times.  Do about a minute of wing jumper's then two foul shots.  Do about a minute of corner jumper's then two foul shots.  Repeat a few times.  Once tired finish with half court shots until I make one.

The one time it'd happen would certainly be when something like this is on the line, but I never need more than 5 or 6 attempts before making one.  So I'll take the wager no matter the terms.

I am sure if you put this on Periscope and live streamed it, you could take a lot of FBG's money on it.

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On 3/26/2019 at 12:20 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

You get 10 shots from half court - make one and you get $5mm tax free, miss and you're going to jail (general population) for 2.5 years. 

You take the shots?

Do I get years of practice beforehand or just yanked out of the audience at a game ?

Would need at least 1-2 more zero's after the 5 to make me even consider it.

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1 hour ago, bigbottom said:

I’m sure it’s been mentioned, but I’d take the bet so long as I could take my ten shots whenever I want.

I’d train for and take the first nine shots and then , assuming I’d missed them all, wait until I’m 85 to take the tenth. 

you wouldn't get to reap much of the "reward"....if you hit that tenth shot...

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I think at your gym for fun versus the weight of jail time might not be accounted for from the people who have tried this.

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if you were already a hardened criminal who had adjusted to life on the inside and who could not make it outside like brooks in shawshank then you would do in a heartbeat and if you made in then you just immeidiately steal the car of the guy running the thing and they would send you right back to the slammer and you would literally have everything you wanted the cash and be in jail and then when you get out you would have a load of cash waiting plus investment value and you build your own luxury prison and live our your life happily locked up that right there is the true meaning of thanksgiving take that to the bank bromigos 

Edited by SWC

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22 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

[Steph Curry's] probably the worst example on earth to use.

I chose him and Love because both are known as long-shot artists, so to speak. Even after seeing the videos ... I wouldn't want those guys shooting for me, either. Yeah, they probably get one-in-ten or better with some frequency ... but missing ten in a row is not off the table for them, either. Not exactly like shooting layups.

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Is it now or can I practice for a year? I don't think I could even reach the rim from half court unless I throw it overhand. 

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If NBA players only have about a 1 in 75 chance of making one, there's no amount of money that would have me risk 2+ years in jail to go 1 in 10.

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Free throws, for sure.
3s, doubtful.
Half court, no way.

 

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1 hour ago, The Noid said:

If NBA players only have about a 1 in 75 chance of making one, there's no amount of money that would have me risk 2+ years in jail to go 1 in 10.

I agree with not risking jail on the shot, but I think there is a difference between taking the shot in a game (where you are running to get as close to the basket as possible before the buzzer, and putting it up with a defender in your face), and a set halfcourt shot.  NBA players' stats would be a lot better in the latter scenario.  Steph Curry was 1-for-9 in that article, but I think Steph Curry would take the money and run (I'm not Steph Curry though).

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2/10 today.  One rattled out but another bounced on the rim 4x before dropping.  Was winded on the last two shots.  I'm out of shape.  FTR, 3 switch.  5 rattled out and 6 rattled in.

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1 hour ago, Don Quixote said:

I agree with not risking jail on the shot, but I think there is a difference between taking the shot in a game (where you are running to get as close to the basket as possible before the buzzer, and putting it up with a defender in your face), and a set halfcourt shot.  NBA players' stats would be a lot better in the latter scenario.  Steph Curry was 1-for-9 in that article, but I think Steph Curry would take the money and run (I'm not Steph Curry though).

Yup, no defender and being able to line it up and get your steps down is huge.

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