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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Terry McLaurin, Washington

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Was forced to start him and was pleased at his points.   Obviously, I wasn't expecting much.   Shame that he didn't score though but his QB play is going to frustrating.   

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19 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

Was forced to start him and was pleased at his points.   Obviously, I wasn't expecting much.   Shame that he didn't score though but his QB play is going to frustrating.   

They just need time to build a connection. If only they had played together before.

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51 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

It's the classic situation of talent vs situation.  The talent is obvious,  it's just his current location.

I’m not sure how I feel about that. I could see a DJ Moore type of hype/season for him in 2020. 

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On 11/25/2019 at 6:48 PM, Leroy Hoard said:

It's the classic situation of talent vs situation.  The talent is obvious,  it's just his current location.

The talent situation level on the Redskins is the worst it ever has been or will be. There'll be wholesale changes in the front office and on the roster in the offseason and the team and coaching staff won't look like they do now. These are the worst conditions McLaurin will ever play under.

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Odds are significantly stacked against him from being a fantasy wr1 (or wr2)

 

In the last 10 years only 1 WR has ever had as bad of a breakout age and college dominator rating, and finished in the top 24 (1% of all unique top 24 wrs). 

It's possible he becomes the 2nd, but the odds arent on his side (you're betting on 1% rather than 99%). IMO it's a great time to sell. I'd bet on 99% every single time

Edited by Dr. Dan

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42 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Odds are significantly stacked against him from being a fantasy wr1 (or wr2)

 

In the last 10 years only 1 WR has ever had as bad of a breakout age and college dominator rating, and finished in the top 24 (1% of all unique top 24 wrs). 

It's possible he becomes the 2nd, but the odds arent on his side (you're betting on 1% rather than 99%). IMO it's a great time to sell. I'd bet on 99% every single time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Odds are significantly stacked against him from being a fantasy wr1 (or wr2)

 

In the last 10 years only 1 WR has ever had as bad of a breakout age and college dominator rating, and finished in the top 24 (1% of all unique top 24 wrs). 

It's possible he becomes the 2nd, but the odds arent on his side (you're betting on 1% rather than 99%). IMO it's a great time to sell. I'd bet on 99% every single time

Breakout age? Colleague dominator rating? Mind unpacking this?

 

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Just now, Koya said:

Breakout age? Colleague dominator rating? Mind unpacking this?

 

I've unpacked and displayed it for all in the link.above 

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

I've unpacked and displayed it for all in the link.above 

I see a link to a spreadsheet, still no idea what it really means.  I assume college dominator has something to do with how they performed on college with some normalized statistic.  Breakout age though when he’s a rookie I don’t get...

and have no idea as to the base stats used for the former even though I can guess what it represents. 

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1 minute ago, Koya said:

I see a link to a spreadsheet, still no idea what it really means.  I assume college dominator has something to do with how they performed on college with some normalized statistic.  Breakout age though when he’s a rookie I don’t get...

and have no idea as to the base stats used for the former even though I can guess what it represents. 

that entire thread talks.about the concept, and the 3rd post in that thread talks about BA and DR definitions. Very commonly used terms for dynasty for statheads 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Odds are significantly stacked against him from being a fantasy wr1 (or wr2)

 

In the last 10 years only 1 WR has ever had as bad of a breakout age and college dominator rating, and finished in the top 24 (1% of all unique top 24 wrs). 

It's possible he becomes the 2nd, but the odds arent on his side (you're betting on 1% rather than 99%). IMO it's a great time to sell. I'd bet on 99% every single time

You may be right, and I’m with you on siding on 99%, but to add some context, it also seems that none of the Ohio State WRs the last few years have had standout metrics, including Michael Thomas who’s one of your exceptions.  Plus they’ve been pretty deep at the position during Terry’s entire college run (MT, Samuel, Miller, P Campbell all 3rd round or higher, KJ Hill possible 3rd rounder in 2020 per walterfootball).

Makes me think that it’s possible that they all ciphoned production off each other and that their system doesn’t really allow for a truly “dominant” WR.  Maybe he’s not a 1% kind of bet.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

In the last 10 years only 1 WR has ever had as bad of a breakout age and college dominator rating, and finished in the top 24 (1% of all unique top 24 wrs). 

Just out of curiosity, who was this?

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5 minutes ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

You may be right, and I’m with you on siding on 99%, but to add some context, it also seems that none of the Ohio State WRs the last few years have had standout metrics, including Michael Thomas who’s one of your exceptions.  Plus they’ve been pretty deep at the position during Terry’s entire college run (MT, Samuel, Miller, P Campbell all 3rd round or higher, KJ Hill possible 3rd rounder in 2020 per walterfootball).

Makes me think that it’s possible that they all ciphoned production off each other and that their system doesn’t really allow for a truly “dominant” WR.  Maybe he’s not a 1% kind of bet.

Yes this is a valid arguement, and one I think made in this thread early on. I think on the miss predictor thread I mentioned that the exceptions/false misses were put into great opportunities, which is what McLaurin has as well. Most of them missed on breakout age only. McLaurin hasnt shown he can handle a high volume of a passing offense, however. That is a red flag to me. Sure, it can happen. A personal preference is to minimize my chances at a miss rather than bet on a rare chance something could happen. He very well may be a great NFL wr. Not my cup of tea for obvious reasons as I've stated. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes this is a valid arguement, and one I think made in this thread early on. I think on the miss predictor thread I mentioned that the exceptions/false misses were put into great opportunities, which is what McLaurin has as well. Most of them missed on breakout age only. McLaurin hasnt shown he can handle a high volume of a passing offense, however. That is a red flag to me. Sure, it can happen. A personal preference is to minimize my chances at a miss rather than bet on a rare chance something could happen. He very well may be a great NFL wr. Not my cup of tea for obvious reasons as I've stated. 

He’s looked phenomenal this year when Case was throwing to him.  Like a young Marvin Harrison.  (Except that he’s almost as old as Marvin)

Edited by Alex P Keaton

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He looks phenomenal! A good QB will do him wonders. Look how he was with Keenum.

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Odds are significantly stacked against him from being a fantasy wr1 (or wr2)

 

In the last 10 years only 1 WR has ever had as bad of a breakout age and college dominator rating, and finished in the top 24 (1% of all unique top 24 wrs). 

It's possible he becomes the 2nd, but the odds arent on his side (you're betting on 1% rather than 99%). IMO it's a great time to sell. I'd bet on 99% every single time

 

What's a WR1 though? DJ Moore, DJ Chark, and Christian Kirk are all great fantasy WRs this year, but would you call any of them dominating? 

I'd still want all three on my fantasy team. 

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1 hour ago, Truebluey said:

 

What's a WR1 though? DJ Moore, DJ Chark, and Christian Kirk are all great fantasy WRs this year, but would you call any of them dominating? 

I'd still want all three on my fantasy team. 

a wr1 is a wr that finishes top 12. a wr 2 finishes 13-24. 

Sure. who wouldnt want DJ Chark, DJ Moore, and Kirk on their teams? Chark is WR6, Moore WR 11, and Kirk has a bright future (is a WR2 in avg/g).

Yes, I'd say Chark and Moore are having WR1 seasons. 

If you had all 3 I imagine youd be doing quite well. That's the point if ruling out likely misses... it narrows your search for a wr1 and wr2 by fuling out those with a 93% chance of missing right away. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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18 hours ago, fatness said:

There'll be wholesale changes in the front office and on the roster in the offseason and the team and coaching staff won't look like they do now. These are the worst conditions McLaurin will play under

I wouldn’t bet on any of these things

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

a wr1 is a wr that finishes top 12. a wr 2 finishes 13-24. 

Sure. who wouldnt want DJ Chark, DJ Moore, and Kirk on their teams? Chark is WR6, Moore WR 11, and Kirk has a bright future (is a WR2 in avg/g).

Yes, I'd say Chark and Moore are having WR1 seasons. 

If you had all 3 I imagine youd be doing quite well. That's the point if ruling out likely misses... it narrows your search for a wr1 and wr2 by fuling out those with a 93% chance of missing right away. 

So none of those 3 are "ruled out"? 

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26 minutes ago, Truebluey said:

So none of those 3 are "ruled out"? 

The thing he's referencing ruled out Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill IIRC. 

Its a decent tool to use but I wouldn’t rely on it. McLaurin has the skill and the opportunity and that’s all you can ask for right now. 

Look at Moore for instance. What had him being this good with a back up QB? Who had John Brown this high with Allen? How about Sutton? It’s a long list of guys that come out of nowhere. The common theme is talent, playing time and scheme to fit their talent. 

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33 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

They are all projected hits

Where? They weren't touted as #1wrs at the start of the year, Chark wasn't even draftable. Nor was McClaurin, but they have all had excellent seasons. 

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1 hour ago, Truebluey said:

Where? They weren't touted as #1wrs at the start of the year, Chark wasn't even draftable. Nor was McClaurin, but they have all had excellent seasons. 

we are having different conversations... I am saying his BA and DR dont meet the criteria for wr1-wr2 status in my spreadsheet/thread. You mentioned chark, moore, kirk... and all 3 of them were wrs who did meet the criteria, and therefore were not projected misses. McLaurin meets neither of the criteria to have a wr1 or wr2 seaso. only 1/88 pf the top 24 wrs over the last 10 years had a similar situation as McLaurin with a bad BA age and DR. Odds arent good McLaurin is another outlier, especially because the 1 outlier is an athletic freak (Tyreek Hill)

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23 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Odds are significantly stacked against him from being a fantasy wr1 (or wr2)

 

In the last 10 years only 1 WR has ever had as bad of a breakout age and college dominator rating, and finished in the top 24 (1% of all unique top 24 wrs). 

It's possible he becomes the 2nd, but the odds arent on his side (you're betting on 1% rather than 99%). IMO it's a great time to sell. I'd bet on 99% every single time

Those odds should get adjusted after we see what he can do on an NFL field.

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38 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

You got stones, kid.   

Reminder, last time Allen went against Harris, he got 5 points. Its not stones, its just simple plain as day common sense to not play an average WR against a corner who shuts him down like clockwork. Allen shouldnt even be rostered in TD leagues. He went 7 scoreless games before he got one 2 weeks ago. He has provided one score to your team since week 3. 

McLAurin aint much better, but he aint mutch worse given matchup. 

 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Those odds should get adjusted after we see what he can do on an NFL field.

Exactly, this conversation is meaningless today. It was an argument over the summer before we saw the actual on-field production (and current WR2 season)

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40 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Exactly, this conversation is meaningless today. It was an argument over the summer before we saw the actual on-field production (and current WR2 season)

He is wr27 in ppr. 

Odds are the odds... I still would sell if I owned him. Hype is so high right now. 

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12 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

we are having different conversations... I am saying his BA and DR dont meet the criteria for wr1-wr2 status in my spreadsheet/thread. You mentioned chark, moore, kirk... and all 3 of them were wrs who did meet the criteria, and therefore were not projected misses. McLaurin meets neither of the criteria to have a wr1 or wr2 seaso. only 1/88 pf the top 24 wrs over the last 10 years had a similar situation as McLaurin with a bad BA age and DR. Odds arent good McLaurin is another outlier, especially because the 1 outlier is an athletic freak (Tyreek Hill)

truth be told....i think there needs to be a college system adjustment of some kind....ohio state under urban

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47 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

He is wr27 in ppr. 

Ummmm... come on. 

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Ummmm... come on. 

How slippery do you want to make that Slope? I'm not taking away from his season so far- hes done amazing and has been a huge bargain for folks. Possible league winner in some cases. But he isnt a wr2 and if he is you'r wr2 you're likely struggling. Hes an amazing flex option this year, but he isnt a top 24 so far 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

How slippery do you want to make that Slope? 

Well you’re being disingenuous to make your point, and “prove” the theory behind your thread, so however slippery we need to go to combat that.

Are we going to blame McLaurin for how godawful Haskins is as a rookie? If you’ve watched him all season you’ll see he has it, and how much Haskins has killed his value.

But even with that, if he did legitimately finish as WR27 would anyone think that would mean he could never have a WR1 season? And I know a WR1 season is technically a top 12 finish but would he be a hit under this age/production theory if he finished consistently in the WR13-WR20 range?

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well you’re being disingenuous to make your point, and “prove” the theory behind your thread, so however slippery we need to go to combat that.

Are we going to blame McLaurin for how godawful Haskins is as a rookie? If you’ve watched him all season you’ll see he has it, and how much Haskins has killed his value.

But even with that, if he did legitimately finish as WR27 would anyone think that would mean he could never have a WR1 season? And I know a WR1 season is technically a top 12 finish but would he be a hit under this age/production theory if he finished consistently in the WR13-WR20 range?

Nkt being disingenuous at all. He hasnt been a wr2. Hes been really good so far and out performed expectations. 

 

Going forward, who knows what Washington does. McLaurin doesnt have a history of having high volume. It's possible washington drafts another WR. What if they drafted Jeudy? Lamb? What if they signed Amari Cooper or AJ Green? McLaurin could be a very gold NFL WR2 but I dont see him as a #1. Can Haskins produce a fantasy wr1?

To each their own. Sorry not to add to the hype in here... I'll let you all continue to feed each others excitement! 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Nkt being disingenuous at all. He hasnt been a wr2. Hes been really good so far and out performed expectations. 

 

Going forward, who knows what Washington does. McLaurin doesnt have a history of having high volume. It's possible washington drafts another WR. What if they drafted Jeudy? Lamb? What if they signed Amari Cooper or AJ Green? McLaurin could be a very gold NFL WR2 but I dont see him as a #1. Can Haskins produce a fantasy wr1?

To each their own. Sorry not to add to the hype in here... I'll let you all continue to feed each others excitement! 

I’ve already traded him away in one league and still have him in one. It’s not about hyping him it’s about having an intellectually honest discussion. We could play that “what if” game about any player in the league. If you’ve watched him he looks great in every aspect of the game. Usually guys with 4.3 speed aren’t precise route runners - he seems to be a complete package and he put up excellent numbers with a below average QB and has tailed off with an atrocious QB. That’s not hype it’s based on fact. And to be honest I don’t see him as a dynasty WR1 but there’s nothing wrong with solid WR2s or even 3s - afterall only 12 guys could be WR1s if we want to get technical.

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Current location and qb are the problem,  not his talent.  WRs have that stigma where they are so dependent on these type of things.

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

He is wr27 in ppr. 

Odds are the odds... I still would sell if I owned him. Hype is so high right now. 

give his current situation WR27 is awesome, he was much higher before the QB swtich, Haskins just isn't ready yet.

Dr D  I appreciate your model. but it looks like it has an Ohio State problem. College scheme needs to be taken into account.

 

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

How slippery do you want to make that Slope? I'm not taking away from his season so far- hes done amazing and has been a huge bargain for folks. Possible league winner in some cases. But he isnt a wr2 and if he is you'r wr2 you're likely struggling. Hes an amazing flex option this year, but he isnt a top 24 so far 

It’s rather convenient that this is being brought up today, and not at other parts of the season when he was squarely in the WR2 range. There’s five games left and his target numbers are on the upswing. I would rather bet on that continuing than some arbitrary model

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

It’s rather convenient that this is being brought up today, and not at other parts of the season when he was squarely in the WR2 range. There’s five games left and his target numbers are on the upswing. I would rather bet on that continuing than some arbitrary model

best of luck! 

I again apologize from discussing an alternative point of view

To get this thread back on track... total star, amirite?

Edited by Dr. Dan

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

best of luck! 

I again apologize from discussing an alternative point of view

To get this thread back on track... total star, amirite?

As someone who does a fair bit of statistical modeling, I appreciate the analysis and think it is useful but you also have to take into account factors not in your model.  TM was WR12 w/Case freakin Keenum as QB.  If you've watched him with Haskins, he's been missed on wide open downfield throws.  I wouldn't sell personally but I think your measures are cool.  "All models are wrong,, some are useful" George Box

Edited by TheAssassin
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2 hours ago, TheAssassin said:

As someone who does a fair bit of statistical modeling, I appreciate the analysis and think it is useful but you also have to take into account factors not in your model.  TM was WR12 w/Case freakin Keenum as QB.  If you've watched him with Haskins, he's been missed on wide open downfield throws.  I wouldn't sell personally but I think your measures are cool.  "All models are wrong,, some are useful" George Box

Thanks. I agree, he could be a false positive, and it very well may be a college system thing. I'd still sell, and it's not like he will be worthless. just not a top 12 or maybe 24 finisher, or if he does itll be for a year or two based on the last 10 years. 

I ran the data if the season ended today and it only strengthened the model. it's wrong less than 6% of the time, and this could very well may be one. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Quote

Terry McLaurin caught 2-of-4 targets for eight yards in the Redskins' Week 13 win over the Panthers.

The eight yards are a new season-low for McLaurin, who now has a six-game touchdown drought. The rookie had a nice tribute to Dan Orlovsky in this one by unknowingly running one yard out of the back of the end zone on a would-be touchdown grab. Other than that, McLaurin was completely quiet. He'll be a boom-or-bust flex play in Green Bay next week with the Redskins on team establish the run.

Dec 1, 2019, 5:02 PM ET

 

 

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On 11/29/2019 at 1:57 AM, FreshiZ said:

Benching Keenan for him in a must win game. LFG!!

Probably not the best decision of this week.

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