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Damien Williams true trade value (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU

JohnnyU

Footballguy
Those who have him want to trade for a 2019 first, those who don't have him want him a lot cheaper.  Except for a few outliers, I doubt anyone is going to get a 1st rd pick for Williams.  I would say his true trade value is early 2nd.  Any later than that most Williams owners probably feel they should just hang on to him, except those in true rebuild mode.  Of course a lot can change after the NFL draft.  Thoughts?

 
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They brought in Hyde, too, right?  

Look, if he gets 60% of the share, he's a great asset to have, potential top-10 RB.  But, I think that's a long shot as it is, and even more remote chance he's a long-term solution in KC.  I frankly wouldn't be pouring many assets into Williams at this point.  I'd give up a late 2, but I don't think he's worth a top-15 pick. 

 
cobalt_27 said:
They brought in Hyde, too, right?  

Look, if he gets 60% of the share, he's a great asset to have, potential top-10 RB.  But, I think that's a long shot as it is, and even more remote chance he's a long-term solution in KC.  I frankly wouldn't be pouring many assets into Williams at this point.  I'd give up a late 2, but I don't think he's worth a top-15 pick. 
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I don't think Hyde is too much of a thread and certainly not as much as an early draft pick would be.  Even an early draft pick may not have too much impact on Williams early in 2019, but may impact his value later in 2019 and beyond.

 
A lot of owners won championships riding Williams last year, so he is naturally going to command a bigger pricetag for them.  

Pros: Demonstrated ability to score tons of fantasy points in the prolific KC offense. Hyde and Darrell Williams aren't too scary right now. 

Cons: could be a flash-in-the-pan since he hasn't got the strongest track record before last season.  KC could draft someone. KC could always bring in another FA and crowd the backfield even further. 

Bottom line is that he is going to be worth more to the team that has him now than he the team trying to get him is likely to pay.  Classic conundrum.  If KC makes it through the offseason without bringing in anyone else and Williams looks good in the preseason, his value would probably skyrocket to multiple 1sts.  If he gets competition from Hyde, Darrel, or a rookie/FA signing and looks mediocre then you wouldn't be able to get a 2nd for him. Timing is pretty much everything for trying to value him.   

 
JohnnyU said:
Those who have him want to trade for a 2019 first, those who don't have him want him a lot cheaper.  Except for a few outliers, I doubt anyone is going to get a 1st rd pick for Williams.  I would say his true trade value is early 2nd.  Any later than that most Williams owners probably feel they should just hang on to him, except those in true rebuild mode.  Of course a lot can change after the NFL draft.  Thoughts?
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FWIW, I don't see a huge drop between late first and early 2nd this year. But he's probably in the mix for those who want him.

Personally I'm not buying.

JohnnyU said:
I don't think Hyde is too much of a thread and certainly not as much as an early draft pick would be.  
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That's a big point of disagreement imo. Yes Williams did well in KC last year, but if you look outside KC, Hyde has been the better all around back for their careers.

Mr. Peterson said:
I traded him for a 2020 1st in a dynasty league.  It was to a good team and will likely be a later 1st.  But I’m in a complete rebuild and was hoping for a future 1st at least. 
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That's a perfectly fair deal IMO. 

FTR, I'm calling a fairly even time share here. The kind I'll stay away from unless there's big value. So right now I'll happily take Hyde at his current ADP (9th? Somewhere around McKinnon, Ekeler, Hynes) although I seem to just miss him.

 
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cobalt_27 said:
They brought in Hyde, too, right?  

Look, if he gets 60% of the share, he's a great asset to have, potential top-10 RB.  But, I think that's a long shot as it is, and even more remote chance he's a long-term solution in KC.  I frankly wouldn't be pouring many assets into Williams at this point.  I'd give up a late 2, but I don't think he's worth a top-15 pick. 
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Why is it a long shot?  

I understand the situation.  I don't understand how you calculated the odds and decided that a "potential top 10 rb" is not "worth a top-15 pick".  

Do you think there are a lot of potential top 10 rbs in this year's draft?  I don't even see any sure things to be top 25, and certainly not anyone who will be available at pick 15. 

Do you not think top 10 rbs are not that valuable?  The andy reid rb has been a stud virtually every year. 

Do you think hyde is a huge threat? He's 29, on his 4th team in two years, his style doesn't match the typical andy reid rb1, and his 604 total yards and 5 touchdowns last year doesn't compare favorably to williams 604 yards and 10 touchdowns in his last 6 games. 

Do you think williams is terrible?  He went undrafted after he played in a crowded backfield and had off field issues with drugs but he had big school pedigree. Miami didn't get much from him, but they suck. The chiefs gm veach said last summer that he has been looking for a backup rb and said he was surprised to see williams was more of a borderline starter. Not high praise, but not insignificant.  After a couple good games, he was resigned to a contract extension, and that was before he went off against the colts.  6 games against 5 playoff teams, over 600 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Do you think the chiefs don't plan to start him? They've already said the starting job is his to lose.  

I agree there's risk, i just don't understand this sentiment that it's a long shot that he's valuable. I'd gladly take a risk on a back who turned 27 this week, has low mileage, is penciled in as the kc rb1 and showed 3 down skills for them last year.  I can't see trading a chance at that for a chance at whatever a late second would get you.

 
Best I can imagine right now is a second.  The potential upside blows a 2019 second out of the water for me.  Ideally I'd like to see him hit and then trade him during the season.

 
In my FFPC leagues I've seen him go for 1.12, a 2020#1 and some doofus gave him away for 3.12.

I do think Hyde is a threat. I do think that Williams benefited from being fresh legged late in the season.  I both think those things are true but he's still worth a late first  this year and I'd say easily worth at least first to a contending team in need of some RB help.

 
bostonfred said:
Why is it a long shot?  

I understand the situation.  I don't understand how you calculated the odds and decided that a "potential top 10 rb" is not "worth a top-15 pick".  

Do you think there are a lot of potential top 10 rbs in this year's draft?  I don't even see any sure things to be top 25, and certainly not anyone who will be available at pick 15. 

Do you not think top 10 rbs are not that valuable?  The andy reid rb has been a stud virtually every year. 

Do you think hyde is a huge threat? He's 29, on his 4th team in two years, his style doesn't match the typical andy reid rb1, and his 604 total yards and 5 touchdowns last year doesn't compare favorably to williams 604 yards and 10 touchdowns in his last 6 games. 

Do you think williams is terrible?  He went undrafted after he played in a crowded backfield and had off field issues with drugs but he had big school pedigree. Miami didn't get much from him, but they suck. The chiefs gm veach said last summer that he has been looking for a backup rb and said he was surprised to see williams was more of a borderline starter. Not high praise, but not insignificant.  After a couple good games, he was resigned to a contract extension, and that was before he went off against the colts.  6 games against 5 playoff teams, over 600 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Do you think the chiefs don't plan to start him? They've already said the starting job is his to lose.  

I agree there's risk, i just don't understand this sentiment that it's a long shot that he's valuable. I'd gladly take a risk on a back who turned 27 this week, has low mileage, is penciled in as the kc rb1 and showed 3 down skills for them last year.  I can't see trading a chance at that for a chance at whatever a late second would get you.
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I think he’s a JAG, so I don’t think he’s terrible, but I don’t think he’s a long term option, either.  FWIW, I don’t think Hyde is anything much either, but he’s established that he can be a 50-60 reception guy out of the backfield, if needed, and is only a year older than Williams.  You noted the one underwhelming comment, and I’ve read others from coaches that left the impression on me that they were pleasantly surprised by the quality of his contribution but are not committed to him by any means.  I just see the odds as super long he’s got any value past this year.

But, it raises an interesting value conundrum that I’m not settled on.  Let’s stipulate he gets that RB10 season but then has zero value after that.  What’s the percentage chance you “hit” on an early 2nd rounder.  In our league, hit rate on picks 11-15 has been about 7-10%.  Not great at all and, if guaranteed just one RB10 season of Williams, I suppose it’s better metrics to take that and live with subsequent irrelevance, as opposed to a 10% chance of ever being relevant.  

But, I can’t imagine giving up a 1st rounder for him, so I still think early-2nd is the sweet spot.

i don’t know if that answers any of your questions, but for better or worse that’s how I think about it.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Wait about 20 days....then you will know what you have and maybe people will be willing to pay for him
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If his value now is early 2nd rounder and they do nothing, will his value increase to 1st round?  I’m skeptical.

But, if they do make a substantial draft investment, Williams’s trade value craters.

If you’re looking to trade him, I think now is the time.  I just think we’ve reached his ceiling, and there’s a reasonable chance the floor drops right out from under him in a few weeks.

 
cobalt_27 said:
I think he’s a JAG, so I don’t think he’s terrible, but I don’t think he’s a long term option, either.  

 Let’s stipulate he gets that RB10 season but then has zero value after that.   
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This is where i see the disconnect.  

You think he's a jag, so you don't think he'll be a long term option. 

But you also think that he could be a top 10 back if things go right. 

The part that's missing is that if he's a top 10 back, then they might not be in any hurry to replace him.  

In your example, you've double counted your own bias.  If he plays anywhere close to his 16 game pace of 1600 total yards and 27 touchdowns he'll not only be a lot better than rb10, he'll probably be the starter in 2020, too. 

I'm not willing to pay "multiple years of elite rb1 production" for him, and i'm not suggesting you should either. But when you're considering the value of a risk/reward, you have to consider the actual risk and the actual reward. And two or more years of rb1 production is worth a lot more than exactly one year of no better than rb10 production.  

 
jtd13 said:
I've been trying to get an early 2nd for Williams with no luck.
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Maybe try a late 1st? Teams who earned  an early 2nd are probably not in the market for a player like him, but contenders might be...?

He just went in the 5th round of a superflex startup in January, but went in the 8th of my most recent SF startup.  That range is usually worth a random 2020 1st straight up. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Maybe try a late 1st? Teams who earned  an early 2nd are probably not in the market for a player like him, but contenders might be...?

He just went in the 5th round of a superflex startup in January, but went in the 8th of my most recent SF startup.  That range is usually worth a random 2020 1st straight up. 
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I get what you're saying, but I generally try not to make offers that I don't think make some sense for the other team. I've tried for early 2nds, and Williams + a 2nd to get into the mid late 1st. Across 2 leagues, I guess I just don't have any Williams fans in those leagues. 

 
Kind of a cluster-you-know-what isn't? LOL.  If you can't get at least an early 2nd my opinion is to hold/  If you lose in the end so be it.  No way I trade him for a late 2nd right now.

 
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In a vacuum without regard to team specific roster considerations, he's a guy most would sell for a 1st and most would buy for a 2nd.  Draft will certainly make it more clear cut.

In one league I've tried to get a 1 and can't, but in the other league I just dealt him for a pretty random 2020 1st, Golden Tate, and Tyrell Williams.  That was the offer I received right after posting he was available and it was an insta-accept for me. (And that's with me on record saying I feel a top 10 season coming, for a league I'm defending champ and had him as my RB3.  Value was too good to pass up)

 
bostonfred said:
This is where i see the disconnect.  

You think he's a jag, so you don't think he'll be a long term option. 

But you also think that he could be a top 10 back if things go right. 

The part that's missing is that if he's a top 10 back, then they might not be in any hurry to replace him.  

In your example, you've double counted your own bias.  If he plays anywhere close to his 16 game pace of 1600 total yards and 27 touchdowns he'll not only be a lot better than rb10, he'll probably be the starter in 2020, too. 

I'm not willing to pay "multiple years of elite rb1 production" for him, and i'm not suggesting you should either. But when you're considering the value of a risk/reward, you have to consider the actual risk and the actual reward. And two or more years of rb1 production is worth a lot more than exactly one year of no better than rb10 production.  
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I didn’t double count anything.  Which actually is rather amusing and ironic that the balance of your post is framed around extrapolating a 1600/27 season based on his 3 starts last year. 

I can simultaneously hold the view that (a) he’s a JAG, (b) he can be a RB10 this year, and (c) he can drift back into mediocrity or even irrelevance a year later.  Historically, that’s not uncommon at all.

 
I can't believe there's a thread on this guy. I wouldn't even give a 4th rd rookie draft pick on this guy.  You do know he's going on his 6th yr, and he's never topped 50 carries, right? KC is definitely drafting a RB in the 1st 4 rds and maybe they'll draft a "steal" RB in the 5th who I like.

 
cobalt_27 said:
I didn’t double count anything.  Which actually is rather amusing and ironic that the balance of your post is framed around extrapolating a 1600/27 season based on his 3 starts last year. 

I can simultaneously hold the view that (a) he’s a JAG, (b) he can be a RB10 this year, and (c) he can drift back into mediocrity or even irrelevance a year later.  Historically, that’s not uncommon at all.
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That's a reasonable view and i'm not disagreeing with you because you hold it.  

Holding that vote you said he might be worth an early second instead of a laye one.

What i'm saying is that we can account for the difference between your "early second"valuation and others' late first or 2020 first valuation by looking at how you've capped his upside at rb10, and for no more than 1 year.  

Sometimes we're all wrong.  You may be completely right in all of your skepticism or i may be right in my optimism.  But knowing that that uncertainty exists, i think the right way to value him is to define the risk and reward, and if the reward includes "he puts up rb1 numbers", then it also clearly includes "he puts up rb1 numbers and earns another year as starter".  

As for the other stuff - i am not extrapolating his numbers to this year as a projection.  I'm setting his upper bound. I don't think he'll do better than that, and i don't expect him to do that again, but we know it's possible. 

It was also not 3 starts. He played in 6 games,  5 starts.  5 of the 6 games were against playoff teams in must win games, and his worst game was the one against Oakland.  Mu biggest concern with "fresh legs theory" isn't that the back has fresh legs and the defense is tired. That's relatively minor.  I'm usually much more concerned about the guy who sucks all year, then gets hot at the end playing teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs. 

Look at derrick henry getting 270 yards and 4 tds against Jacksonville last year.  He had a great game but that 99 yard run isn't something you should expect every year. I love henry, but you can't extrapolate from that game.  

Williams had "fresh legs", but picking up two 4th and 1s in a playoff game is much more interesting to me because it shows that they trusted him to run it and he earned another opportunity.  He blew up in the second half against the Patriots when they needed every point he got to take a conference championship game to overtime.  That's no fluke.  The patriots d was red hot. 

I get that we see it differently, but i'm not suggesting that my way is the only way to see it.  I'm just suggesting that your way may not be the only way. 

 
bostonfred said:
That's a reasonable view and i'm not disagreeing with you because you hold it.  

Holding that vote you said he might be worth an early second instead of a laye one.

What i'm saying is that we can account for the difference between your "early second"valuation and others' late first or 2020 first valuation by looking at how you've capped his upside at rb10, and for no more than 1 year.  

Sometimes we're all wrong.  You may be completely right in all of your skepticism or i may be right in my optimism.  But knowing that that uncertainty exists, i think the right way to value him is to define the risk and reward, and if the reward includes "he puts up rb1 numbers", then it also clearly includes "he puts up rb1 numbers and earns another year as starter".  

As for the other stuff - i am not extrapolating his numbers to this year as a projection.  I'm setting his upper bound. I don't think he'll do better than that, and i don't expect him to do that again, but we know it's possible. 

It was also not 3 starts. He played in 6 games,  5 starts.  5 of the 6 games were against playoff teams in must win games, and his worst game was the one against Oakland.  Mu biggest concern with "fresh legs theory" isn't that the back has fresh legs and the defense is tired. That's relatively minor.  I'm usually much more concerned about the guy who sucks all year, then gets hot at the end playing teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs. 

Look at derrick henry getting 270 yards and 4 tds against Jacksonville last year.  He had a great game but that 99 yard run isn't something you should expect every year. I love henry, but you can't extrapolate from that game.  

Williams had "fresh legs", but picking up two 4th and 1s in a playoff game is much more interesting to me because it shows that they trusted him to run it and he earned another opportunity.  He blew up in the second half against the Patriots when they needed every point he got to take a conference championship game to overtime.  That's no fluke.  The patriots d was red hot. 

I get that we see it differently, but i'm not suggesting that my way is the only way to see it.  I'm just suggesting that your way may not be the only way. 
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All fair.  And, I’m not gonna die on any hill with regards to DW.  I think he’s a fascinating case study, whose range of totally plausible outcomes is greater than anyone I can think of this year.

 
bostonfred said:
Why is it a long shot?  

I understand the situation.  I don't understand how you calculated the odds and decided that a "potential top 10 rb" is not "worth a top-15 pick".  

Do you think there are a lot of potential top 10 rbs in this year's draft?  I don't even see any sure things to be top 25, and certainly not anyone who will be available at pick 15. 

Do you not think top 10 rbs are not that valuable?  The andy reid rb has been a stud virtually every year. 

Do you think hyde is a huge threat? He's 29, on his 4th team in two years, his style doesn't match the typical andy reid rb1, and his 604 total yards and 5 touchdowns last year doesn't compare favorably to williams 604 yards and 10 touchdowns in his last 6 games. 

Do you think williams is terrible?  He went undrafted after he played in a crowded backfield and had off field issues with drugs but he had big school pedigree. Miami didn't get much from him, but they suck. The chiefs gm veach said last summer that he has been looking for a backup rb and said he was surprised to see williams was more of a borderline starter. Not high praise, but not insignificant.  After a couple good games, he was resigned to a contract extension, and that was before he went off against the colts.  6 games against 5 playoff teams, over 600 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Do you think the chiefs don't plan to start him? They've already said the starting job is his to lose.  

I agree there's risk, i just don't understand this sentiment that it's a long shot that he's valuable. I'd gladly take a risk on a back who turned 27 this week, has low mileage, is penciled in as the kc rb1 and showed 3 down skills for them last year.  I can't see trading a chance at that for a chance at whatever a late second would get you.
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Good post. This echoes my feelings on him. 

 
cobalt_27 said:
But, it raises an interesting value conundrum that I’m not settled on.  Let’s stipulate he gets that RB10 season but then has zero value after that.  What’s the percentage chance you “hit” on an early 2nd rounder.  In our league, hit rate on picks 11-15 has been about 7-10%.  Not great at all and, if guaranteed just one RB10 season of Williams, I suppose it’s better metrics to take that and live with subsequent irrelevance, as opposed to a 10% chance of ever being relevant.  
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Exactly. I have no issue renting an RB1 for one year. 

 
One factor for the draft is that the Chiefs have a ton of needs, especially on defense. They need a CB and an edge rusher more than they need an RB, and there are a lot of other positions where they could use some talent (including safety, ILB, C, another edge rusher, another CB, maybe WR depending on what's up with Hill). A lot of overviews don't even have RB among their top 5 needs.

 
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bostonfred said:
Why is it a long shot?  
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Why?  What is Spencer Ware’s value right now?  Williams’ value right now very well could be as high as it ever will be in his career.  Your position is that a top 15 pick is fair value for Williams, but that doesn’t seem to factor in any risk for a guy with 733 rushing yards and exactly 2 100+ yd rushing games in a 5 year NFL career, including playoff games.  I see a lot more ST player in his career stats than I see anything worthy of a top 15 pick as you are contending.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Why?  What is Spencer Ware’s value right now?  Williams’ value right now very well could be as high as it ever will be in his career.  Your position is that a top 15 pick is fair value for Williams, but that doesn’t seem to factor in any risk for a guy with 733 rushing yards and exactly 2 100+ yd rushing games in a 5 year NFL career, including playoff games.  I see a lot more ST player in his career stats than I see anything worthy of a top 15 pick as you are contending.
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You seem to be ignoring current situation and it is good for Williams.  That has to factor in as well, especially for contending fantasy teams.

 
JohnnyU said:
You seem to be ignoring current situation and it is good for Williams.  That has to factor in as well, especially for contending fantasy teams.
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I think his point (in bringing up Ware) is that situations change quickly.

Williams helped me win two leagues last year so I like him - but he's a replaceable talent. I moved him in 2 of the 3 leagues I owned him (in package deals) to mitigate some risk.

The question is will the Chiefs bring in a player that's a threat to his starting gig. So far, I do not believe the Hyde signing does that but who knows what the draft brings? 

 
JohnnyU said:
You seem to be ignoring current situation and it is good for Williams.  That has to factor in as well, especially for contending fantasy teams.
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You mean KC picking up a vet RB who has proven a hell of a lot more in his career than Williams ever has and thinking Williams is still a lock to start?  There’s huge risk on both guys, and that doesn’t include Darrell Williams or the draft and/or any UDFAs who might factor in.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
You mean KC picking up a vet RB who has proven a hell of a lot more in his career than Williams ever has and thinking Williams is still a lock to start?  There’s huge risk on both guys, and that doesn’t include Darrell Williams or the draft and/or any UDFAs who might factor in.
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That's where we disagree.  I don't think Hyde's paltry 3.3 average is that much of a threat.  

 
JohnnyU said:
That's where we disagree.  I don't think Hyde's paltry 3.3 average is that much of a threat.  
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This is what I don't get.  Hyde was a consistent 4.0+ guy in SFO and now all of a sudden he's a paltry 3.3 guy based on his performance receiving handoffs from Tyrod, Kessler, and Bortles?  If we laud Damien Williams for a small sample size in KC--while at the same time giving him a pass for his 3 years of awfulness in MIA--why not give the same benefit of the doubt to Hyde here?   

 
How quickly some forget

Chiefs coach Andy Reid said he is "a big Spencer Ware fan."

"The kid’s dirty tough. He’s going to give you an honest down every snap," Reid said. "He can block, he can catch, and he can run. So, there’s a place for Spencer." Ware struggled down the stretch last season, but, as Reid said, it "was really his first year" as a lead back, and he still finished with 921 yards on 214 carries (4.3 YPC). The Chiefs might look to the draft for backfield help after releasing Jamaal Charles earlier this offseason, but Ware has a good chance to open the season as the lead back. Apr 15 - 12:46 PM
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Bronco Billy said:
Why?  What is Spencer Ware’s value right now?  Williams’ value right now very well could be as high as it ever will be in his career.  Your position is that a top 15 pick is fair value for Williams, but that doesn’t seem to factor in any risk for a guy with 733 rushing yards and exactly 2 100+ yd rushing games in a 5 year NFL career, including playoff games.  I see a lot more ST player in his career stats than I see anything worthy of a top 15 pick as you are contending.
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You quoted the phrase "why is it a long shot", but you opened with "what is spencer ware's value". Those are two different things.  I asked "why is the probability low" and you started with "the outcome could be bad".  

You then proceed to say that i don't factor in any risk.  That's categorically untrue.  I've mentioned the risk in every single post. 

In your last sentence you started to answer the question. You don't think he's talented.  But you still didn't address why it's a "long shot" to get starting rb production from a guy who - according to the chiefs - is the starter.  

Maybe try something like "i think it's a long shot because...."

For example, "although the chiefs gave williams a contract extension and named him the starter, i think it's a long shot that they actually start him because..."

And then try to explain your reasoning and why it's not only likely to happen the way you see it,  but the way other people see it is a "long shot". 

Or maybe you don't think it's a long shot.  Those aren't your words. But if you didn't plan to answer the question you quoted, though, why did you quote it? There's plenty of words in that post and plenty of posts in this thread.  

Just trying to help. 

Thanks

Fred

 
A lot of fantasy podcasts talk about Williams as a top 15 RB, but nobody in my league believes that he'll be the starter after a quarter of the season. His value is low in my league and the owner has been trying to sell to no avail. The assumption is that they'll draft somebody, and that because Hyde has more guaranteed money this year, he's got as good a shot for carries. 

 
bostonfred said:
You quoted the phrase "why is it a long shot", but you opened with "what is spencer ware's value". Those are two different things.  I asked "why is the probability low" and you started with "the outcome could be bad".  

You then proceed to say that i don't factor in any risk.  That's categorically untrue.  I've mentioned the risk in every single post. 

In your last sentence you started to answer the question. You don't think he's talented.  But you still didn't address why it's a "long shot" to get starting rb production from a guy who - according to the chiefs - is the starter.  

Maybe try something like "i think it's a long shot because...."

For example, "although the chiefs gave williams a contract extension and named him the starter, i think it's a long shot that they actually start him because..."

And then try to explain your reasoning and why it's not only likely to happen the way you see it,  but the way other people see it is a "long shot". 

Or maybe you don't think it's a long shot.  Those aren't your words. But if you didn't plan to answer the question you quoted, though, why did you quote it? There's plenty of words in that post and plenty of posts in this thread.  

Just trying to help. 

Thanks

Fred
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I'm curious how you interpret the public statements from coaches about DW as the starter?  You've mentioned this several times.  I don't know about your experience, but I tend to be pretty cynical and skeptical of coach-speak, especially months--and players--removed from having to make any definitive decisions.  In this case, I've treated those comments regarding DW with a grain of salt.  Am I being too dismissive?

 
cobalt_27 said:
This is what I don't get.  Hyde was a consistent 4.0+ guy in SFO and now all of a sudden he's a paltry 3.3 guy based on his performance receiving handoffs from Tyrod, Kessler, and Bortles?  If we laud Damien Williams for a small sample size in KC--while at the same time giving him a pass for his 3 years of awfulness in MIA--why not give the same benefit of the doubt to Hyde here?   
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For me the bigger concerns with hyde are that

1) this is hyde's 4th team in a year and a half

2) he's entering his age 29 season

3) he has only really been used as a receiving back once in his career, in a system that used the rb as a receiver a lot.  He averaged a hair under 6 yards a catch (not good) and was let go.  

4) his style has not typically matched the lead back role in andy Reid's offense. 

5) the chiefs named williams the starter and said it's his job to lose

 
The reason I like williams 

1) the chiefs named williams the starter and said it's his job to lose

2) he had 600 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final 6 games last year against 5 playoff teams 

3) before he arrived with the chiefs, he was considered a good receiver and pass blocker Random google search

I understand the concerns about him being a jag, but he looked really good with the chiefs.  The dolphins, their offensive line and coaching all pretty much suck, so i don't give a lot of credence to his ypc or usage there. And he went undrafted due to off field issues, but had big school pedigree. Those definitely don't prove he is good, but it's good to have an explanation for why two predictors for him being bad might not be true.  

None of that guarantees that williams will be "the guy". There's definitely risk.  But if he gets the receiving work and a handful of carries a game he's worth starting. He was getting about 10 carries a game aside from his 25 for 129 vs the colts last year and was a fantasy stud.  I think it's very realistic for him to get that kind of workload again, and i want whichever back gets that kind of workload for the chiefs.  

 
bostonfred said:
The reason I like williams 

1) the chiefs named williams the starter and said it's his job to lose

2) he had 600 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final 6 games last year against 5 playoff teams 

3) before he arrived with the chiefs, he was considered a good receiver and pass blocker Random google search

I understand the concerns about him being a jag, but he looked really good with the chiefs.  The dolphins, their offensive line and coaching all pretty much suck, so i don't give a lot of credence to his ypc or usage there. And he went undrafted due to off field issues, but had big school pedigree. Those definitely don't prove he is good, but it's good to have an explanation for why two predictors for him being bad might not be true.  

None of that guarantees that williams will be "the guy". There's definitely risk.  But if he gets the receiving work and a handful of carries a game he's worth starting. He was getting about 10 carries a game aside from his 25 for 129 vs the colts last year and was a fantasy stud.  I think it's very realistic for him to get that kind of workload again, and i want whichever back gets that kind of workload for the chiefs.  
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This. I'd rather eat a 2nd round rookie pick or a roster spot (since I got him off waivers where I own him) and have him fail than to earn an extra crappy dart throw while Williams starts for the most explosive offense in the league.

The cost of the risk of him failing is far surpassed by the upside of him starting. IMHO.

 
cobalt_27 said:
I'm curious how you interpret the public statements from coaches about DW as the starter?  You've mentioned this several times.  I don't know about your experience, but I tend to be pretty cynical and skeptical of coach-speak, especially months--and players--removed from having to make any definitive decisions.  In this case, I've treated those comments regarding DW with a grain of salt.  Am I being too dismissive?
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The chiefs brought him in as a free agent and started hunt. 

When they released hunt, they started ware.

When ware got hurt, they started williams. 

If you stop the story right there, he looks like a jag third string rb who was thrust into action. I'd agree with everyone who said he's a long shot to start next year.  Now let's look at what happened since. 

He played the next 4 regular season games with 42 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns plus 18 receptions for 135 and 2 more touchdowns against a murderer's row of the ravens chargers seahawks... and raiders.  His worst game was the one against the raiders.  

The chiefs signed him to a two year contract extension.

The chiefs used him as a workhorse in the playoffs.  35 carries and 10 receptions in two playoff games. 250 total yards and 4 touchdowns against the colts who had just obliterated the Texans offense and the patriots who went on to win the lowest scoring superbowl in history.  

Now i'm starting to be interested.  

Then as free agency is coming up, the chiefs say it's williams job to lose. 

They back that statement up by not resigning ware. 

They back it up more by not signing a good pass catching back in free agency, and bringing in a 29 year old banger. 

All of their actions so far are consistent with them planning to use williams as the "starter".  Whether that means he gets a workhorse role remains to be seen. The chiefs might draft somebody, they might love hyde, they might pick up ajayi when he is recovered from his acl. I don't know any more than you do.  But it's a positive data point that fits their actions.  It's certainly better than saying "it's an open competition" or "we are excited to add carlos hyde who can compete for the starting job right away". There's really no reason for them to say it's williams job to lose unless they intend to give him a shot.  

 
bostonfred said:
He played the next 4 regular season games with 42 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns plus 18 receptions for 135 and 2 more touchdowns against a murderer's row of the ravens chargers seahawks... and raiders.  His worst game was the one against the raiders.  
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I am 100% certain no one is going to convince you that this guy is a replacement level player, but you don’t get to make up your own facts to support your position.  Your “murderer’s row” by D ranking in the NFL against RB production:

BAL #2

SEA #18

LAC #21

OAK #25

That’s 3 sub-average run Ds there.

 
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bostonfred said:
The chiefs brought him in as a free agent and started hunt. 

When they released hunt, they started ware.

When ware got hurt, they started williams. 

If you stop the story right there, he looks like a jag third string rb who was thrust into action. I'd agree with everyone who said he's a long shot to start next year.  Now let's look at what happened since. 

He played the next 4 regular season games with 42 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns plus 18 receptions for 135 and 2 more touchdowns against a murderer's row of the ravens chargers seahawks... and raiders.  His worst game was the one against the raiders.  

The chiefs signed him to a two year contract extension.

The chiefs used him as a workhorse in the playoffs.  35 carries and 10 receptions in two playoff games. 250 total yards and 4 touchdowns against the colts who had just obliterated the Texans offense and the patriots who went on to win the lowest scoring superbowl in history.  

Now i'm starting to be interested.  

Then as free agency is coming up, the chiefs say it's williams job to lose. 

They back that statement up by not resigning ware. 

They back it up more by not signing a good pass catching back in free agency, and bringing in a 29 year old banger. 

All of their actions so far are consistent with them planning to use williams as the "starter".  Whether that means he gets a workhorse role remains to be seen. The chiefs might draft somebody, they might love hyde, they might pick up ajayi when he is recovered from his acl. I don't know any more than you do.  But it's a positive data point that fits their actions.  It's certainly better than saying "it's an open competition" or "we are excited to add carlos hyde who can compete for the starting job right away". There's really no reason for them to say it's williams job to lose unless they intend to give him a shot.  
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I'm interested by the fact that they signed 27 year old Williams to a really cheap extension (2 years, $5.1m, only $2.1m guaranteed) and then followed that up by signing the "29 year old banger" to a $2.8m contract ($1.6m guaranteed) and whose pedigree is far more accomplished.

From W13 on, DW's carries were 5, 8, 10, 13, 11, 25, 10, respectively.  Really nice outlier against IND, but otherwise, he had 20 touches only once in those final 7 games during his "workhorse" stretch.  His production with those touches is outstanding, so I can see how that frames the hope and the hype.  But, I think this is where most folks are tapping the brakes a bit, given what we know about the dangers of extrapolating from small sample sizes.     

 
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