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***2019 Kentucky Derby Thread & More*** (2 Viewers)

Leroy Hoard said:
Following up on the pace issue, whatever horse that can establish an easy lead will be tough to catch since nobody left in the field projects to be enough of a blazer to force a tough pace. In Brisnet parlance, a bunch of EP types but no for sure E type to set up the closers.
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Does Maximum Security fit that bill? (i.e. likes to run up front, has good speed numbers, favorable post position) 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Following up on the pace issue, whatever horse that can establish an easy lead will be tough to catch since nobody left in the field projects to be enough of a blazer to force a tough pace. In Brisnet parlance, a bunch of EP types but no for sure E type to set up the closers.
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Seems to me that Maximum Security is the only one that really wants the lead.  Lots of others that like to sit just off the pace.  But if you look at what he did in the Florida Derby, a modest pace is going to keep the door open for a half-dozen horses that are big closers.

 
I have a feeling Improbable and Maximum Security set the pace.   With Omaha Beach out, I have Roadster and Game Winner as my top 2, with some exotics scattered around.  I still like Long Range Toddy as a longshot.  Throwing out a bad ride on a sloppy track in the Arkansas Derby.   Everyone reporting he's looking sharp.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Yes, plus he has never given up the lead once established.
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Right. The more I think about it, I’m liking Maximum Security... especially if it’s wet/raining. Some horses don’t like running in the slop and if MS can get out front and hold the lead he won’t have to deal with it. Improbable has shown he can mix it up in the rain (vs Omaha Beach) so those two are in for me. 

 
Quint said:
Does Maximum Security fit that bill? (i.e. likes to run up front, has good speed numbers, favorable post position) 
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Yes.  I like him although Gulfstream is notoriously speed favoring, so not completely sold he can do it at Churchill 

but based on recent derby’s he’s in a great position to get a clean trip, grab the lead and not give it up

 
By the way, just wanted to thank everyone for posting their thoughts in here.   So many horses with nearly the same quality, it's helpful to get some perspective on some of the ones I sort of wrote off early.   One of these days I'll make it to a derby--probably when my daughter is older.   

 
-fish- said:
By the way, just wanted to thank everyone for posting their thoughts in here.   So many horses with nearly the same quality, it's helpful to get some perspective on some of the ones I sort of wrote off early.   One of these days I'll make it to a derby--probably when my daughter is older.   
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Find me when ya do, fish.

 
Every year I gotta watch 2009 replay.  Durkin not realizing Mine That Bird had a commanding lead until he damn near crossed the finish line never gets old :lmao:

 
for those who understand betting.

Is it worth the risk to key 3 horses over 11 others for the superfecta?  Cost of ticket is around 3k.  Figure this years super is gonna be a monster with a wide open field (25k+) payout.

Am i making a bad assumption on the payout?

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Every year I gotta watch 2009 replay.  Durkin not realizing Mine That Bird had a commanding lead until he damn near crossed the finish line never gets old :lmao:
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My dad's then GF had me put $10 on Mine That Bird and my cellphone started ringing minutes after his win.  GFY Sonia!  Her ticket was the only one that cashed of the many in my pocket.

 
Do we know who wins this yet? Be nice to bet on the winning horse before the public floods the market on race day.

Seems like the odds get worse for every horse.

:notsure:

 
Raptors409 said:
Do we know who wins this yet? Be nice to bet on the winning horse before the public floods the market on race day.

Seems like the odds get worse for every horse.

:notsure:
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As far as the public goes on such big days I think the real longshots lose a lot of value and the top few favorites actually gain a little value. Smart money in this case gets buried by floods of guesses and favorite numbers.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
for those who understand betting.

Is it worth the risk to key 3 horses over 11 others for the superfecta?  Cost of ticket is around 3k.  Figure this years super is gonna be a monster with a wide open field (25k+) payout.

Am i making a bad assumption on the payout?
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Depends on the 3 horses

my buddies usually pool their money and put $2-4K Into the Super.  I’ve backed away in recent years because unless it’s some crazy combo we probably wouldn't have any way I’m getting like 6-1 on my investment if it pays $25K.  I might as well just take a stand a place a win bet on one of my keys

i know we hit the animal kingdom year and it paid $22K IIRC.  Hit again a few years ago, maybe the American Pharoah race and I think we lost money

its a fun bet for sure, just don’t feel it’s the best use of my funds anymore 

 
Raptors409 said:
Do we know who wins this yet? Be nice to bet on the winning horse before the public floods the market on race day.

Seems like the odds get worse for every horse.

:notsure:
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Not sure what you mean?  If you’re betting through any legit parimutuel service then you get whatever the post time odds are

if you’re getting offshore then yeah you might be able to find a better price now 

 
The more I think about it, the more Maximum Security seems like the obvious pick:

  • He's never lost - winning every race easily
  • In an unusual situation for the Derby, he's almost the lone early speed
  • He breaks well and should have a clear path to the front/inside
  • His speed figures are at least as good as his opponents
  • Not entirely sure about how his breeding is for a mile and a quarter, but it certainly doesn't look terrible
After that, things get much more iffy.  I think I like Improbable and Tacitus as the two other horses who are good enough and have strong enough late kicks to overcome traffic and get close to Maximum Security.

 
zoobird said:
The more I think about it, the more Maximum Security seems like the obvious pick:

  • He's never lost - winning every race easily
  • In an unusual situation for the Derby, he's almost the lone early speed
  • He breaks well and should have a clear path to the front/inside
  • His speed figures are at least as good as his opponents
  • Not entirely sure about how his breeding is for a mile and a quarter, but it certainly doesn't look terrible
After that, things get much more iffy.  I think I like Improbable and Tacitus as the two other horses who are good enough and have strong enough late kicks to overcome traffic and get close to Maximum Security.
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Same sire as 2007 winner Street Cry and also Zenyatta and Winx so classic distance pedigree is there 

 
Street Cry is his sire's sire.  I think his sire (New Year's Day) is a bit of an unknown quantity.  Dam's side of his pedigree looks pretty good with AP Indy as dam's sire.

 
                                                                                                                                          Vekoma

 
Judge Smails said:
Had a chance to look at the Past Performances and Draw below:

Gate 1: War of Will

Gate 2: Tax

Gate 3: By My Standards

Gate 4: Gray Magician

Gate 5: Improbable

Gate 6: Vekoma

Gate 7: Maximum Security

Gate 8: Tacitus

Gate 9: Plus Que Parfait

Gate 10: Cutting Humor

Gate 11: Haikal

Gate 12: Omaha Beach

Gate 13: Code of Honor

Gate 14: Win Win Win

Gate 15: Master Fencer

Gate 16: Game Winner 

Gate 17: Roadster

Gate 18: Long Range Toddy

Gate 19: Spinoff

Gate 20: Country House

Here's how I'm looking at it now.  Eliminated horses - all of the inside 6, including Improbable.  So War of Will, Tax, By My Standards, Gray Magician, Velkoma and Improbable. Drawing inside of Maximus Security and Omaha Beach will hurt all of them, and they weren't good enough anyway.  Then eliminate Plus Que Parfait, Cutting Humor, Haikal, Code of Honor, Win Win Win, Master Fencer, Long Range Toddy, Spinoff and Country House. So I've eliminated 15 of the 20 horses. 

5 horses will decide this:

7 - Maximus Security - won't get an easy trip with Omaha Beach breathing down his neck every step of the way but if he breaks well and settles who knows.  Went from 16K maiden claimer to airing in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  Nobody's been close to him and he's had back to back Beyers over 100.

12 - Omaha Beach - gets the best draw and should track Maximus Security the whole way.  If that one folds will inherit the lead.  Hard to see him being out of the exacta.

16 - Game Winner - Don't like the fact that he labored and had to be asked in mid stretch but he was coming back on just 3 weeks rest.  Should get a good trip laying 3rd or 4th and then come outside Omaha Beach.  Question of him moving forward off those 2 preps or not.  I think he's a grinder and not brilliant but has been right there in every race.  Rumor is that the SA track was deep and tiring after it was redone so it might be giving him a conditioning edge

17- Roadster - honestly don't love his draw.  He's going to have to find a way to tuck in and save ground.  Hard to do from the 17 hole.  I like him less after the post position draw.  Got the worst of it for his style.  But if he somehow gets a trip he finishes and is good enough to win this.

8 - Tacitus - I know, I said never bet the Wood Winner.  But I have to give him a shot after seeing the post position draw.  He wasn't the typical win up front Wood winner, and he had trouble to boot.  At least he was drawing away at the end in his 2 starts, including at TB Downs.  Beyers are in the range. For his style I love the 8 hole as long as he drops back and doesn't get squeezed when Improbable and Maximus Security go at it from the inner half and Omaha Beach and Game Winner try to shoot out to get position and not be wide.  All of those horses in between are at risk of getting squeezed/slammed.  Knock is he's been facing weaker fields so don't know if he's good enough to pass the top 4.

Usually love when I can eliminate 3/4 of the field but not a ton of value here.  These are the horses who dominated the major final preps. Might do a Superfecta box with these 5. The only 2 closers I give a shot to are Roadster and Tacitus. If the top 3 go too fast along with Improbable (and they may hook up early enough) then one of the 2 closers can be in the exacta.  Omaha Beach's race to lose after the draw.  Game Winner figures close. Maximus Security has his work cut out trying to fend off those 2 early and then Roadster/Tacitus late. Neither Omaha Beach nor Game Winner are drawing away from each other so when that happens it gives the closers a punchers chance. If they settle then the high cruising speed top 3 will be controlling it.

Chalky I know but I can't see it any other way....
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from my experience first impressions are usually good.   Any thoughts on your prognosis from above?

thanx.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
The 12 being gone really does help the 7.
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You’ve gotta go back to Orb in 2013 for an off the pace winner and that was particularly due to Palace Malice running blazing early fractions, which I believe was due to them adding blinkers

IIRC that was the first year of the points system which eliminated cheap speed and since then you’ve had the better horses getting good trips and running a moderate pace and pulling away to finish it off 

Now determining which front runners are legit is the hard part...

 
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