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Post your rookie drafts - 2019 (1 Viewer)

-OZ- said:
After Jacobs it's the wild West

If you want a player you need to just take him. Forget trying to get "value", just go for your targets.

Casing point - the owner of 2.11 wanted to trade down, I had one target I wanted that I thought would be there at my next pick (3.03) but I wasn't sure. So I traded up to get Diontae Johnson. Turns out that's the guy he was trading down to get. Meanwhile, Singletary and a couple others were still around. So he's not wrong in that Johnson often would slide, but not this time. 
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These drafts are all over the place once they hit pick 4. Impossible to predict what player is next to go off the board. Definitely agree that it's best to just take "your guy" if available rather than trying to move back to get "your guy" at the best possible value. 

 
Flying Elvis said:
These drafts are all over the place once they hit pick 4. Impossible to predict what player is next to go off the board. Definitely agree that it's best to just take "your guy" if available rather than trying to move back to get "your guy" at the best possible value. 
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I honestly think it's the opposite. Tier your draft board, rather than fall in love with a couple guys.  

Diontae Johnson is a perfect example. Early 3rd round pick by the franchise with the best WR track record over the last 10 years or so. He's going in the early 3rd round of rookie drafts. Hakeem Butler, drafted a full round later, is going as high as 1.07. 

I'll gladly let the rest of my league reach for "their guys" - and I'll take the value as it falls. 

 
Concept Coop said:
I honestly think it's the opposite. Tier your draft board, rather than fall in love with a couple guys.  

Diontae Johnson is a perfect example. Early 3rd round pick by the franchise with the best WR track record over the last 10 years or so. He's going in the early 3rd round of rookie drafts. Hakeem Butler, drafted a full round later, is going as high as 1.07. 

I'll gladly let the rest of my league reach for "their guys" - and I'll take the value as it falls. 
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Yeah he’s saying instead of hoping to get Johnson in the third, move up and take him mid to late second to make sure you get your guy. 

 
Concept Coop said:
Diontae Johnson is a perfect example. Early 3rd round pick by the franchise with the best WR track record over the last 10 years or so. He's going in the early 3rd round of rookie drafts. Hakeem Butler, drafted a full round later, is going as high as 1.07. 

I'll gladly let the rest of my league reach for "their guys" - and I'll take the value as it falls. 
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I never even heard of the guy til the Steelers took him. Faust just started a thread on him and it might have 10 posts now. I still dont know how to spell his name. Having watched Johnson since, I dont see what the Steelers liked about him. Smaller, not fast, little school ect. But you make a good point about Colbert's history with wide receivers. I'll go with him.

As much as I liked Butler, I take Johnson ahead of him every time. I cant understand why people continue to pick Butler in the 1st following the Nfl draft. Stubbornness. 

 
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cloppbeast said:
I never even heard of the guy til the Steelers took him. Faust just started a thread on him and it might have 10 posts now. I still dont know how to spell his name. Having watched Johnson since, I dont see what the Steelers liked about him. Smaller, not fast, little school ect. But you make a good point about Colbert's history with wide receivers. I'll go with him.

As much as I liked Butler, I take Johnson ahead of him every time. I cant understand why people continue to pick Butler in the 1st following the Nfl draft. Stubbornness. 
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It might take him a little while to produce....besidea juju....the wrs seemed to marinade

 
Bfrahm3 said:
Yeah he’s saying instead of hoping to get Johnson in the third, move up and take him mid to late second to make sure you get your guy. 
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My point is that this draft, especially the WR class, is extremely flat. The tiers are huge. In general, I don’t think this is the year to “get your guy”. I think trading up for Johnson because he’s the last guy in the tier is a good move. Trading up for him because he’s your guy, because you like him more than the other guys in that tier, is not, in my opinion.

 
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Concept Coop said:
My point is that this draft, especially the WR class, is extremely flat. The tiers are huge. In general, I don’t think this is the year to “get your guy”. I think trading up for Johnson because he’s the last guy in the tier is a good move. Trading up for him because he’s your guy, because you like him more than the other guys in that tier, is not, in my opinion.
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There's a lot of reaching for mid round wide receivers. This is a year to let the draft come to you if there ever was one. 

 
12 team PPR Flex started this morning:

1.01  1  Jacobs, Josh OAK RB (R)

1.02  2  Montgomery, David CHI RB (R)

1.03  3  Harry, N'Keal NEP WR (R)

1.04  4 Sanders, Miles PHI RB (R)

1.05  5  Samuel, Deebo SFO WR (R)

1.06  6  Murray, Kyler ARI QB (R)

1.07  7  Metcalf, DK SEA WR (R)

1.08  8  Hockenson, T.J. DET TE (R)

1.09  9  Fant, Noah DEN TE (R)

1.10  10  Brown, A.J. TEN WR (R)

1.11  11  Campbell, Parris IND WR (R)

1.12  12  Brown, Marquise BAL WR (R)

2.01  13  Hardman, Mecole KCC WR (R)

2.02  14  Arcega-Whiteside, JJ PHI WR (R)

2.03  15  Butler, Hakeem ARI WR (R)

2.04  16  Henderson, Darrell LAR RB (R)

2.05  17  Harris, Damien NEP RB (R)

2.06  18  Hill, Justice BAL RB (R)

2.07  19 Singletary, Devin BUF RB (R)

2.08  20  Isabella, Andy ARI, WR (R)

2.09  21  Smith Jr., Irv MIN TE (R)

2.10  22 Mattison, Alexander MIN RB (R)

2.11  23  Harmon, Kelvin WAS WR (R) 

2.12  24  Thompson, Darwin KCC RB (R) 

3.01  25  Haskins, Dwayne WAS QB (R) 

3.02  26  Jones, Daniel NYG QB (R) 

3.03  27  Johnson, Diontae PIT WR (R) 

3.04  28  Williams, Trayveon CIN RB (R) 

3.05  29  Ridley, Riley CHI WR (R) 

3.06  30  Boykin, Miles BAL WR (R) 

3.07  31  Snell, Benny PIT RB (R) 

3.08  32  Sternberger, Jace GBP TE (R) 

3.09  33  McLaurin, Terry WAS WR (R) 

3.10  34  Warring, Kahale HOU TE (R) 

3.11  35  Hurd, Jalen SFO WR (R) 

3.12  36  Love, Bryce WAS RB (R) 

 
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Concept Coop said:
Early 3rd round pick by the franchise with the best WR track record over the last 10 years or so.
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Steelers definitely have some hits but how much of that is just a numbers game?  They have by far the most total WRs drafted in the first 3 rounds (10 guys in the last 13 years) so it makes sense that they would have the most hits too.

Diontae Johnson
James Washington
Juju Smith-Schuster
Sammie Coates
Markus Wheaton
Emmanuel Sanders
Mike Wallace
Limas Sweed
Santonio Holmes
Willie Reid

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Steelers definitely have some hits but how much of that is just a numbers game?  They have by far the most total WRs drafted in the first 3 rounds (10 guys in the last 13 years) so it makes sense that they would have the most hits too.

Diontae Johnson
James Washington
Juju Smith-Schuster
Sammie Coates
Markus Wheaton
Emmanuel Sanders
Mike Wallace
Limas Sweed
Santonio Holmes
Willie Reid
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They also developed hines ward and antonio brown....

Not to mention plaxico

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
Was what I hoped for in taking Harry first. That one of them would get pushed to 7.
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That’s an absurd “hope” in a non ppr league.  Thus it’s both unreal and a black mark against your league mates that one of Sanders or Montgomery will be there at 1.07.  Fant at 1.04 in a non ppr league?  🤢

But looks like this is working out well for you.  :thumbup:

 
SayWhat? said:
That’s an absurd “hope” in a non ppr league.  Thus it’s both unreal and a black mark against your league mates that one of Sanders or Montgomery will be there at 1.07.  Fant at 1.04 in a non ppr league?  🤢

But looks like this is working out well for you.  :thumbup:
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Gotta know your leaguemates. Guy before me took Hockenson.

I chose Montgomery over Sanders.

 
Concept Coop said:
I honestly think it's the opposite. Tier your draft board, rather than fall in love with a couple guys.  

Diontae Johnson is a perfect example. Early 3rd round pick by the franchise with the best WR track record over the last 10 years or so. He's going in the early 3rd round of rookie drafts. Hakeem Butler, drafted a full round later, is going as high as 1.07. 

I'll gladly let the rest of my league reach for "their guys" - and I'll take the value as it falls. 
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Agreed. I definitely could have given context there... was really just thinking it's not one of those years where you can look at ADP and have a reasonable expectation that you can move back 6-8 spots and still get the guy you like. There is a total fustercluck of names from pick 5-15... back out at your own risk. 

 
Andy, that's a horrible strategy.  Just sayin.  Why not just take the RB you want most at #1. You didn't push anyone down.  Harry would have gone top 6, and if he didn't then you take Harry, who you took at 1.

Very odd.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
It's not like I took Isabella at #1. Even if I missed on the RB, I'd still have the arguably top WR. And then I'd just pick someone else.
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When you have pick 1 it's usually best to just take your top guy.

That and would there be some sort of problem if you ended up with two RBs?

 
Flying Elvis said:
Agreed. I definitely could have given context there... was really just thinking it's not one of those years where you can look at ADP and have a reasonable expectation that you can move back 6-8 spots and still get the guy you like. There is a total fustercluck of names from pick 5-15... back out at your own risk. 
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Sorry, misunderstood you. I agree. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
When you have pick 1 it's usually best to just take your top guy.

That and would there be some sort of problem if you ended up with two RBs?
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There was less of a chance of ending up with a RB at 7 if I took one at one, though.

And what's wrong with liking Harry? Scratch that - I don't know if I need that answer here.

I'm happier having Harry/Montgomery than I would have been with Jacobs/Hockenstein (for example, based on how the draft "should" have gone).

 
Andy Dufresne said:
There was less of a chance of ending up with a RB at 7 if I took one at one, though.

And what's wrong with liking Harry? Scratch that - I don't know if I need that answer here.

I'm happier having Harry/Montgomery than I would have been with Jacobs/Hockenstein (for example, based on how the draft "should" have gone).
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Harry would not have been there at 7 and even if he was then you would have just gotten your #1 RB and the same guy you took at 1 anyway.

Its non ppr.  The RBS values way higher here.  Like I said, your pick of harry did not affect who would be there at 7

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Steelers definitely have some hits but how much of that is just a numbers game?  They have by far the most total WRs drafted in the first 3 rounds (10 guys in the last 13 years) so it makes sense that they would have the most hits too.

Diontae Johnson
James Washington
Juju Smith-Schuster
Sammie Coates
Markus Wheaton
Emmanuel Sanders
Mike Wallace
Limas Sweed
Santonio Holmes
Willie Reid
Click to expand...
You could be right. It would take more work than I want to do to confirm. But that list still looks great to me, especially if we open it up to include day 3 picks Brown and Bryant.

Perhaps some hyperbole on my part, but I still put stock in their track record. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
Harry would not have been there at 7 and even if he was then you would have just gotten your #1 RB and the same guy you took at 1 anyway.

Its non ppr.  The RBS values way higher here.  Like I said, your pick of harry did not affect who would be there at 7
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I don't get what you're saying. But that's okay. I don't really need to.

And I'm not trying to be dismissive. Honestly. It worked out like I wanted it to.

 
Concept Coop said:
I honestly think it's the opposite. Tier your draft board, rather than fall in love with a couple guys.  

Diontae Johnson is a perfect example. Early 3rd round pick by the franchise with the best WR track record over the last 10 years or so. He's going in the early 3rd round of rookie drafts. Hakeem Butler, drafted a full round later, is going as high as 1.07. 

I'll gladly let the rest of my league reach for "their guys" - and I'll take the value as it falls. 
Click to expand...
I'm of both minds to some degree because if you really favor one guy and the price isn't too extreme then I think it makes sense to trust your gut, but there are limits to how far I'd be willing to stretch that philosophy. I took a quick peek at the Bloom post-draft 100 and saw that he had Butler in the top 3-4 players. I'm doing a slow rookie draft right now and Butler just went 9th overall. Maybe these guys have it right and Butler is really that good, but taking a 4th round NFL draft pick that high in the rookie draft when there are still day 1-2 talents on the board is definitely a tightrope act. You are putting a lot of faith in your subjective analysis while disregarding the league's verdict to a degree that's probably reckless.

My general approach with rookie rankings has been to divide players into tiers based on draft position (1st round // 2nd-3rd round // 4th round // 5th+) and then sort them within those tiers based on subjective opinion. However, if I really like or dislike someone then I'd be willing to bump him up or down a tier. So if I had a strong positive opinion on someone like Butler or Bryce Love (I don't) then I wouldn't bump him into the top tier because I'd want to anchor to that 4th round draft slot a little bit, but I'd be willing to put him up in the 2nd-3rd round tier.

This is one of the big challenges of doing rookie rankings. Historically, we know that 2nd-3rd round players have about a 35% hit rate, but it's not a random lottery. There are reasons why some succeed and others fail, and hypothetically you can learn those reasons and make predictive assessments that exceed the generic hit rate. When we look back on this Deebo/Hardman/JJAW/AJ Brown/Campbell/Isabella/D Johnson/Hurd/McLauren cluster a few years from now, there's a good chance that 1-2 of those guys will be awesome, 1-2 others will be decent, and the rest will be crap. But right now, on paper, they are all just 30-40% dice rolls basically. So should you try to identify which ones are legit and bet hard on that guy, or just trade down to the bottom of the tier and take whoever falls?

I think I fall in the middle between the full on ballsiness of taking Hakeem Butler as a top 2-3 WR in this draft and the conservative approach of lumping them all together into one tier. I'd probably be willing to pay a modest price to jump up to the top of that generic tier to get the players I like (AJ Brown, Deebo). But for the players who don't really inspire any special confidence in me (JJAW, Campbell, Hardman), I don't see a world of difference between them and guys you can get 5-10 spots cheaper (D Johnson, Isabella).

This is a funky draft and while there are 4-5 guys I like a bit near the top, beyond that I do agree that the value from about pick 6 to pick 18-20 is relatively flat. I'm intrigued by that 12-18 range where you're getting players like Harris/Isabella/Henderson/M Brown/Fant who might outproduce the Montgomery/Campbell/Hardman types who are going much higher despite similar generic draft slots. I feel that while late 1sts hold less value than a typical year, the sheer number of players with some type of pulse provides good depth into the late 2nd round of most rookie drafts. That's an argument for trading down, but if I'm sitting there in the 8-10 slots and someone I like falls to me, I'll probably still pull the trigger. 

 
EBF said:
I'm of both minds to some degree because if you really favor one guy and the price isn't too extreme then I think it makes sense to trust your gut, but there are limits to how far I'd be willing to stretch that philosophy. I took a quick peek at the Bloom post-draft 100 and saw that he had Butler in the top 3-4 players. I'm doing a slow rookie draft right now and Butler just went 9th overall. Maybe these guys have it right and Butler is really that good, but taking a 4th round NFL draft pick that high in the rookie draft when there are still day 1-2 talents on the board is definitely a tightrope act. You are putting a lot of faith in your subjective analysis while disregarding the league's verdict to a degree that's probably reckless.

My general approach with rookie rankings has been to divide players into tiers based on draft position (1st round // 2nd-3rd round // 4th round // 5th+) and then sort them within those tiers based on subjective opinion. However, if I really like or dislike someone then I'd be willing to bump him up or down a tier. So if I had a strong positive opinion on someone like Butler or Bryce Love (I don't) then I wouldn't bump him into the top tier because I'd want to anchor to that 4th round draft slot a little bit, but I'd be willing to put him up in the 2nd-3rd round tier.
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The Butler hype is wild to me. Calling it a tightrope is putting it nicely. We don't even have all-22 views. We see - what? - 4 routes a game? And every time I read the justifications - "he's a freak", "SPARQ", "1,300 yards" - I can't help but respond, in my head, sarcastically: "If only the NFL knew this stuff!"

I think we're on the same page. I'll certainly move guys around within draft capital based tiers and even between them. I think it's reasonable to view Butler as more than a typical 4th round pick - it was a deep WR draft, he was the first pick in the round, the physical gifts are impressive, etc. So by all means, take him over Johnson, Hurd , Boykin, Isabella, Hardman, etc. But to invest a mid first, knowing some of those guys will be available in the  3rd, taking him ahead of guys like Deebo and Brown...

EBF said:
This is one of the big challenges of doing rookie rankings. Historically, we know that 2nd-3rd round players have about a 35% hit rate, but it's not a random lottery. There are reasons why some succeed and others fail, and hypothetically you can learn those reasons and make predictive assessments that exceed the generic hit rate. When we look back on this Deebo/Hardman/JJAW/AJ Brown/Campbell/Isabella/D Johnson/Hurd/McLauren cluster a few years from now, there's a good chance that 1-2 of those guys will be awesome, 1-2 others will be decent, and the rest will be crap. But right now, on paper, they are all just 30-40% dice rolls basically. So should you try to identify which ones are legit and bet hard on that guy, or just trade down to the bottom of the tier and take whoever falls?
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I'd say it's a fine strategy this year. I don't mean to suggest that draft capital is the only thing that should go into our tiering. I have Metcalf and Campbell a tier ahead players drafted ahead of them, for example. But my tiers are still huge, compared to most years; to the point where some guys will be drafted a full round later than others in the same tier. 

Again, I don't think we're far off, if we disagree at all. I didn't mean to suggest that draft capital is the only thing that should define our tiers. 

 
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Concept Coop said:
You could be right. It would take more work than I want to do to confirm. But that list still looks great to me, especially if we open it up to include day 3 picks Brown and Bryant.

Perhaps some hyperbole on my part, but I still put stock in their track record. 
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Yeah it would take a lot of effort to put together all the data (more than I'm willing to do right now), but my best guess is that the success rate there would probably be above average, but well within the standard variation of what we should expect the hit rate to be on day 1/2 picks.

For instance I just randomly pulled up a couple of teams over the same time period.

Chargers
Mike Williams
Keenan Allen
Vincent Brown
Craig Davis
Vincent Jackson

Packers
Ty Montgomery
Davante Adams
Randall Cobb
Jordy Nelson
James Jones
Greg Jennings

Eagles
JJAW
Nelson Agholor
Jordan Matthews
Josh Huff
DeSean Jackson

Raiders
Amari Cooper
Darrius Heyward-Bey

Those hit rates don't really seem to be any worse, we're just talking about half as many, if not fewer, picks spent at the position by each team as the Steelers have spent.  As a combined list I don't think it's any worse than Pitt's list really, just broken up into more teams by way of fewer picks spent per team.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Yeah it would take a lot of effort to put together all the data (more than I'm willing to do right now), but my best guess is that the success rate there would probably be above average, but well within the standard variation of what we should expect the hit rate to be on day 1/2 picks.

For instance I just randomly pulled up a couple of teams over the same time period.

Those hit rates don't really seem to be any worse, we're just talking about half as many, if not fewer, picks spent at the position by each team as the Steelers have spent.  As a combined list I don't think it's any worse than Pitt's list really, just broken up into more teams by way of fewer picks spent per team.
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Good call. Green Bay's hit rate is ridiculous. 

 
Ratbone said:
Wow, Campbell really fell. That is the latest I have seen him go even considering a couple of Def players. Has there been something come out negative about him? 
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No. This league just does a lot of dumb things. You should see the trade offers/what gets rejected. It's a weird collection of owners.

 
16 team IDP.  Some interesting stuff going down....

1.01 Jacobs, Josh                                        2.01 Brown, Marquise

1.02  Harry, N'Keal                                        2.02 Samuel, Deebo   

1.03 Campbell, Parris                                  2.03 Isabella, Andy 

1.04 Sanders, Miles                                     2.04 Harris, Damien 

1.05 Hockenson, T.J.                                   2.05 Henderson, Darrell 

1.06 Montgomery, David                             2.06 Singletary, Devin 

1.07 Metcalf, DK                                           2.07 Butler, Hakeem 

1.08 Fant, Noah                                            2.08 Hill, Justice BAL 

1.09 Haskins, Dwayne                                 2.09 Arcega-Whiteside, JJ 

1.10 Murray, Kyler                                         2.10 Abram, Johnathan 

1.11 Bosa, Nick                                             2.11 Mattison, Alexander

1.12 Hardman, Mecole                                2.12 Thompson, Darwin 

1.13 Brown, A.J.                                            2.13 Love, Bryce 

1.14 White, Devin                                          2.14 Oliver, Ed 

1.15 Bush, Devin                                            2.15 Smith Jr., Irv 

1.16 Ferrell, Clelin                                          2.16 Sternberger, Jace

 
Is there anything worse than when someone is on the draft site when their pick comes up only to leave for multiple hours without picking?

I mean, it's barbaric.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Is there anything worse than when someone is on the draft site when their pick comes up only to leave for multiple hours without picking?

I mean, it's barbaric.
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I agres got this jack hole otc for like 8 hours now....not checking in....and he does it every draft every pick....his team sucks and he has 4 firsts this year...and. i know no one is offering him crap 

 
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