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the lone star

Who Were The Most Overrated & Underrated Players Of 2018?

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Who Were The Most Overrated & Underrated Players Of 2018?
You can look at this in terms of fantasy and/or general playing ability.
You can name offensive and/or defensive players if you like.

Edited by the lone star

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I'd add more to it. 

Outside of an injury, who were the players we projected too highly? And is there something we can learn there as we look towards 2019?

Likewise, who were the players we projected too lowly or were too slow to get on board with? And is there something we can learn there as we look towards 2019?

 

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For WRs Corey Davis has to be on a short list of projected too highly. I'd say the same with A. Jeffrey.  I'd also say I didn't expect Sanders or Lockett to have the seasons they did (Sanders was on pace for top 10 before injury) 

 

 

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Mahomes was easily the most underrated player of 2018....most didn't have him in the top 12. From a ROI perspective it wasn't even close.....

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

I'd add more to it. 

Outside of an injury, who were the players we projected too highly? And is there something we can learn there as we look towards 2019?

Likewise, who were the players we projected too lowly or were too slow to get on board with? And is there something we can learn there as we look towards 2019?

 

I know I have asked for more of this from FBG for years and then I just quit asking.....I actually think (and would assume) it should be something that you guys are doing on your own without having us initiate it by posting player names.....nobody knows your rankings and projections better then you guys....YOU know where you hit and where you missed.....I think self evaluation is one of the keys....and for years you guys have not done a very good job of it or in at least sharing it with your subscribers....I have been around this board forever and that has always been one of my only complaints....things seem to just shut down once the season is over and there is not much reflection from the top....and it seems not really until this year did we get some of the Bloom "what did we learn" stuff....I think a "look back" should be a staple of what you guys offer and to give out some really in depth and transparent look at where you guys hit and missed in your rankings.....and WHY...and draft strategies, etc.....these would be some of the most valuable things you guys could offer since most of us around here in one way or another follow your lead when it comes to rankings, projections, draft strategies, etc....each year I know I look back at my individual drafts and try to see where I could have done better and where I got it right or wrong and most importantly what did I see or what did I miss last August and why....just my :2cents:

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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22 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

underrated going into this season?

Cohen and Lindsay. End of discussion. (in PPR)

That James Palmer report last week is not worrying you?

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

That James Palmer report last week is not worrying you?

nothing worries me until it happens

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17 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Amari Cooper, and then amari Cooper. 

Amari was on both sides of the 2018 coin. 

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23 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Amari Cooper, and then amari Cooper. 

Dodds had Cooper at PPR WR14 just before the season....

he finished PPR WR18 (give or take depending on league)....so all in all just about right

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

That James Palmer report last week is not worrying you?

What was in the report?

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4 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

I'd add more to it. 

Outside of an injury, who were the players we projected too highly? And is there something we can learn there as we look towards 2019?

Likewise, who were the players we projected too lowly or were too slow to get on board with? And is there something we can learn there as we look towards 2019?

 

I would actually love to hear you "the experts" answer your own questions.....not trying to sound snarky, but I think it would be a great read/info....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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13 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I would actually love to hear you "the experts" answer your own questions.....not trying to sound snarky, but I think it would be a great read/info....

Thanks. We do a ton of that on the site with long features like WHAT WE LEARNED IN 2018: QUARTERBACK .

Links to other positions:

RB: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-what-we-learned-rb

WR: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-what-we-learned-wr

TE: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-what-we-learned-te

And the big focus for us on these is how we'll apply what we learned in 2019. I think that should always be the focus.

For the forums, I'm way more interested in what the forum folks think and discussing. 

Edited by Joe Bryant

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3 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

For WRs Corey Davis has to be on a short list of projected too highly. I'd say the same with A. Jeffrey.  I'd also say I didn't expect Sanders or Lockett to have the seasons they did (Sanders was on pace for top 10 before injury) 

 

 

I think every Titan was overrated last year and so it very much falls on Mariotta. He had been given a lot of free passes or assumptions were made about him improving with a new offense. At this point I wonder if he isn't just an outright bust. 

2 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

underrated going into this season?

Cohen and Lindsay. End of discussion. (in PPR)

And now overrated to enter this season. 

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3 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Mahomes was easily the most underrated player of 2018....most didn't have him in the top 12. From a ROI perspective it wasn't even close.....

And Leveon Bell was easily the most overrated. That had nothing to do with a talent eval but a situational eval. Nobody have serious thought to the idea that he might not play and all the through the process he remained at 1.02 in ADP.  FF Calculator shows that his lowest draft spot with 5th overall. 

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2 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

underrated going into this season?

Cohen and Lindsay. End of discussion. (in PPR)

Lindsay wasn't even on the radar at the start of the season so hard to say anyone missed that one.  He came out of absolutely nowhere as an undrafted rookie on a team where they had a relatively highly drafted rookie on the team.  What's the lesson to learn here?  For every Lindsay there are a ton of guys in the same situation with similar skillset coming out of school that never turn into anything.

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For me personally

Overrated:

Kenyan Drake-I took him a lot in the 4th round of drafts. I thought there was no way Gase would give equal touches to a guy older than me over a young explosive RB. 

Larry Fitzgerald:-  figured he would be the rookie QB's best friend and get a lot of checkdowns. I failed to account for a backwards OC, bad OL and a rookie QB could cause a team to implode. The signs were there. 

Underrated: 

Adam Thielen- I just wasn't buying that he and Diggs were both worth their draft slot. I kind of assumed he had his flukey seasonin 2017 and would revert back to being more of a 900/5 guy. 

Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks- I figured they would all split the work (+ Gurley's 700 yards) and was only looking at the 2017 pass attempts without ever thinking the Goff would throw the ball 90 more times and stay just as efficient. 

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29 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Thanks. We do a ton of that on the site with long features like WHAT WE LEARNED IN 2018: QUARTERBACK .

Links to other positions:

RB: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-what-we-learned-rb

WR: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-what-we-learned-wr

TE: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-what-we-learned-te

And the big focus for us on these is how we'll apply what we learned in 2019. I think that should always be the focus.

For the forums, I'm way more interested in what the forum folks think and discussing. 

thanks...yeah I mentioned above about these Bloom articles......not sure I had seen them before this year...

in general....overall....I think this is an area on a pay site that could even be expanded on even more.....almost down to individual players in even more depth than what Bloom provides for a few situations....and staffers could revisit their individual projections and rankings and analyze why they maybe hit and missed on certain guys etc.....

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

For me personally

Overrated:

Kenyan Drake-I took him a lot in the 4th round of drafts. I thought there was no way Gase would give equal touches to a guy older than me over a young explosive RB. 

Larry Fitzgerald:-  figured he would be the rookie QB's best friend and get a lot of checkdowns. I failed to account for a backwards OC, bad OL and a rookie QB could cause a team to implode. The signs were there. 

Underrated: 

Adam Thielen- I just wasn't buying that he and Diggs were both worth their draft slot. I kind of assumed he had his flukey seasonin 2017 and would revert back to being more of a 900/5 guy. 

Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks- I figured they would all split the work (+ Gurley's 700 yards) and was only looking at the 2017 pass attempts without ever thinking the Goff would throw the ball 90 more times and stay just as efficient. 

the Drake one is a good one....

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3 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Mahomes was easily the most underrated player of 2018....most didn't have him in the top 12. From a ROI perspective it wasn't even close.....

He was definitely a risk/reward pick given his lack of a previous track record and would have been very risky pick ranked any higher than that despite the 20-20 hindsight we can now use on him.  He was probably the most popular "sleeper" pick on this board and amongst the staff when it came down to QB's and that was pretty much dead on.  Only thing they really missed was that he obviously blew everyone's projections out of the water and performed better than even his biggest fans anticipated.

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The issue with Mahomes was the schedule. I viewed him as a sure thing but lowered him in my redraft rankings because of what looked at the time like one of the most daunting schedules I can recall a QB having heading into the season.  So if there is a lesson to be learned here it's don't overthink it and specifically don't value schedule over talent.

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Devonta Freeman was my downfall in a couple of leagues. 

David Johnson's value was killed by situation.

Fournette got dinged by injury and team regressed from previous year.

Alex Collins flatlined and Jordan Howard never fit in with the new offense. 

For WR's, Fitz, Demaryius were highest duds on my list.

 

 

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Would the Carson/Penny situation be a case of undervalued/overvalued? A lot of people were fading Carson big time before the season started more so specifically after the draft. I was one who held on to Carson but didnt have much hope of him being any way serviceable. I remember offering him to the Penny owner for a mid 2nd during our rookie draft but got a hard nope back. Would this be an anomaly due to the Pete Carroll effect of not taking draft capital into consideration over performance? Or is there anything else to be gleaned from it? 

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For me last year I badly overrated some TE's. Engram, Burton and Reed in particular all of whom when healthy were disappointing and since I mainly play in TE premium leagues I was using picks in round 4-7 range on them. 

And I badly overrated the entire Raiders WR group in general. Cooper rebounded in Dallas but I thought he'd be huge in Oakland and he was crushing to fantasy teams early in the year. Jordy I thought Gruden could do great things for, and he actually was late in the year but by then it was to late and even if Martavis had never got suspended he surprisingly just sucked.

 

Underrated for me would have to be James Conner.  Anyone playing this hobby long enough knows that even spare talent RB's can produce in fantasy if they get enough key usage, at least for awhile, but I never thought Conner was capable of putting up that many fantasy points per week for majority of the season. Obviously like a lot of people I assumed Bell would return but even if I'd known Bell was not coming back and I"d not have been properly high enough on Conner and most of all was surprised and his production out of the backfield as a receiver.

Also as I was busy whiffing on Raiders WR's  I never saw Jared Cook at 31 years old having his best and most consistent season of his career.

Also while he was hit or miss for fantasy I'd add Adrian Peterson to my underrated list.  I did not think he had that left him any longer.

 

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What about McCaffrey?

I think we all knew he would be a dynamic double threat but he obviously took it to a new level. And the fact that he played just about every snap, put up big numbers from the get go, and never wore down.

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1 hour ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

He was definitely a risk/reward pick given his lack of a previous track record and would have been very risky pick ranked any higher than that despite the 20-20 hindsight we can now use on him.  He was probably the most popular "sleeper" pick on this board and amongst the staff when it came down to QB's and that was pretty much dead on.  Only thing they really missed was that he obviously blew everyone's projections out of the water and performed better than even his biggest fans anticipated.

Not much of a risk where  Mahomes was going. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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2 minutes ago, zamboni said:

What about McCaffrey?

 

For me it depends when you asked me.

There was a good chunk of last offseason where I might have never been more wrong about a player for fantasy then  I was about McCaffrey. When he was going in mid to late round 2 of drafts I had him pegged as one of my most overrated players of the year. The thought in my head was I could get similar production from Cohen and I could draft him in the 6th-7th round.(Cohen fwiw did surpass CMC's rookie year production). My thought process was he was not productive as a runner his rookie season, not a great fit for power scheme Norv likes to run(CJ Anderson seemed like a better fit) and that the owner, GM and OC who picked him 8th overall and were tasked with using him left so I anticipated a drop in his passing numbers if Norv was not dedicated to finding creative ways to use him and I was not confident of that. Again I could not have been more wrong and I'm really grateful that one of the dynasty leagues I own him other people most of felt the same way because I got rejected on some trade offers that would have stung me to look back on today.

But by the time we got to mid August I had him as my 9th ranked player, still not high enough but close enough for me to not label it a major miss. By this time I'd seen and read enough to believe it was not coach speak when they were talking about increasing his usage was the primary reason I got back on board.

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1 hour ago, Stinkin Ref said:

thanks...yeah I mentioned above about these Bloom articles......not sure I had seen them before this year...

in general....overall....I think this is an area on a pay site that could even be expanded on even more.....almost down to individual players in even more depth than what Bloom provides for a few situations....and staffers could revisit their individual projections and rankings and analyze why they maybe hit and missed on certain guys etc.....

Thanks. Right now, we don't have more plans to do more backward looking features beyond those four but those are pretty exhaustive. From here forward, we'll likely be focusing on everything in front of us. David's buried now in creating 2019 detailed stat projections for every player. Which is really difficult before the draft. John Norton's doing the same for IDP. But it's where we're starting each year. Hope to have that all ready in a couple of weeks. 

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1 hour ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

Devonta Freeman was my downfall in a couple of leagues. 

David Johnson's value was killed by situation.

Fournette got dinged by injury and team regressed from previous year.

Alex Collins flatlined and Jordan Howard never fit in with the new offense. 

For WR's, Fitz, Demaryius were highest duds on my list.

 

 

this was a big one as well....FBg had him at like RB13 in PPR before the season started....

agree on Freeman as well....

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

Thanks. Right now, we don't have more plans to do more backward looking features beyond those four but those are pretty exhaustive. From here forward, we'll likely be focusing on everything in front of us. David's buried now in creating 2019 detailed stat projections for every player. Which is really difficult before the draft. John Norton's doing the same for IDP. But it's where we're starting each year. Hope to have that all ready in a couple of weeks. 

thanks... I get that you guys don't see a ton of benefit in the self evaluation thing ( I don't really agree)...but just IMO as a subscriber I think it would be great info/read for your subscribers in January/Feb etc.....when the fantasy season is basically over but still fresh and not much else going on....I think there is a sweet spot time frame in there for more specific transparency and self evaluation prior to "teeing it up for next year"....letting your subscribers know the initial thought process and then maybe where things went sideways and mistakes were made or along the same lines where it went right (sleepers, etc) will help in future assessment and use of the service....but I also understand not wanting to draw attention to some of those things....

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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1 hour ago, Stinkin Ref said:

thanks... I get that you guys don't see a ton of benefit in the self evaluation thing ( I don't really agree)...but just IMO as a subscriber I think it would be great info/read for your subscribers in January/Feb etc.....when the fantasy season is basically over but still fresh and not much else going on....I think there is a sweet spot time frame in there for more specific transparency and self evaluation prior to "teeing it up for next year"....letting your subscribers know the initial thought process and then maybe where things went sideways and mistakes were made or along the same lines where it went right (sleepers, etc) will help in future assessment and use of the service....but I also understand not wanting to draw attention to some of those things....

Absolutely. That's exactly why we release the "What We Learned" series in February. 

No worry at all about drawing attention to what we learned. We spend four big feature articles on that. 

Thanks and as always, we'll hope to do even better this year. 

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in terms of ROI and positional ADP....it would be pretty cool to see where the numbers would actually answer this question (overrated/underrated).....you would think there would maybe be a place where you could see those numbers......would be a cool thing for like a Fantasy Football Message Board and service to provide....:whistle:

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And to add, I'm looking forward to what you guys discuss here. Lots of sharp Footballguys on this board. 

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Using Dodds 9/3 season projections as the face of the FBG franchise, here's how things turned out using standard FBG scoring.
The list has the players ranked by projections and then how they finished the season.
This is not an indictment of Dodds' projections, just a baseline to see how things played out from before the season started to how things actually ended up.
Using predicted points scored and actual points scored would likely be a better exercise . . . as would actual draft order vs. end of year value, but that's more time than I am willing to invest at this moment.

QUARTERBACKS:

1	Aaron Rodgers		7
2	Cam Newton 		14
3	Deshaun Watson		4
4	Tom Brady		12
5	Russell Wilson		10
6	Drew Brees		8
7	Matthew Stafford	20
8	Kirk Cousins		9
9	Jimmy Garoppolo 	39
10	Philip Rivers		13
11	Ben Roethlisberger	3
12	Jared Goff		6
13	Matt Ryan		2
14	Alex Smith 		32
15	Andrew Luck		5
16	Patrick Mahomes 	1
17	Dak Prescott		11
18	Marcus Mariota		26
19	Carson Wentz 		23
20	Blake Bortles		24
21	Mitchell Trubisky	15
22	Tyrod Taylor		42
23	Eli Manning		16
24	Andy Dalton		27
25	Derek Carr		18
26	Ryan Tannehill		30
27	Case Keenum		19
28	Jameis Winston		21
29	Joe Flacco		31
30	Sam Darnold		25
31	Josh Allen		22
32	Josh Rosen		33
33	Sam Bradford		49
34	Ryan Fitzpatrick	28
35	Josh McCown		47
36	Baker Mayfield		17
37	Lamar Jackson		29
38	Nathan Peterman		50
39	Nick Foles		36
40	Blaine Gabbert		43

 

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1	Todd Gurley 	1
2	Ezekiel Elliott	5
3	David Johnson	10
4	L. Fournette	38
5	Melvin Gordon 	7
6	Kareem Hunt 	8
7	Alvin Kamara	4
8	Saquon Barkley	2
9	Dalvin Cook	31
10	Devonta Freeman	109
11	C. McCaffrey	3
12	Le'Veon Bell	NR
13	Alex Collins	37
14	Jordan Howard	18
15	Derrick Henry	12
16	Joe Mixon	9
17	Lamar Miller	22
18	Royce Freeman	45
19	Kenyan Drake	21
20	Isaiah Crowell	30
21	Jay Ajayi	79
22	Carlos Hyde	43
23	LeSean McCoy	40
24	Peyton Barber	26
25	Marshawn Lynch	56
26	Tevin Coleman	19
27	Mark Ingram 	28
28	Dion Lewis	35
29	Marlon Mack	20
30	Jamaal Williams	47
31	Alfred Morris	59
32	Kerryon Johnson	32
33	Rex Burkhead	80
34	Adrian Peterson	16
35	Chris Carson	14
36	Tarik Cohen	17
37	Rashaad Penny	60
38	Matt Breida	24
39	Bilal Powell	67
40	James White	11
41	Giovani Bernard	61
42	Devontae Booker	66
43	C.J. Anderson	58
44	Duke Johnson Jr	48
45	Austin Ekeler	27
46	Latavius Murray	34
47	Chris Ivory	55
48	Chris Thompson	68
49	Corey Clement	64
50	Ty Montgomery	71
51	Doug Martin	33
52	Frank Gore	42
53	Aaron Jones	23
54	T.J. Yeldon	29
56	Nick Chubb	15
59	Sony Michel	25
60	James Conner	6
65	L. Blount	49
66	Nyheim Hines	39
68	Jalen Richard	41
88	Mike Davis	36
100	W. Smallwood	44
NR	Philip Lindsay	13
NR	Gus Edwards	45
NR	Damien Williams	50

 

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1	DeAndre Hopkins	2
2	Antonio Brown	3
3	Odell Beckham 	16
4	Julio Jones	4
5	Keenan Allen	13
6	T.Y. Hilton	14
7	Mike Evans	6
8	Tyreek Hill 	1
9	A.J. Green 	38
10	Michael Thomas	7
11	Davante Adams	5
12	Adam Thielen	8
13	Amari Cooper	19
14	Brandin Cooks	12
15	Stefon Diggs	15
16	Marvin Jones 	57
17	L Fitzgerald	29
18	M Goodwin	76
19	Smith-Schuster	9
20	Allen Robinson	41
21	D Thomas	44
22	M Crabtree	60
23	Golden Tate	37
24	Doug Baldwin 	49
25	Josh Gordon 	43
26	Robby Anderson	33
27	Devin Funchess	59
28	Jamison Crowder	84
29	Kenny Stills	46
30	Keelan Cole	82
31	Chris Hogan	72
32	Jarvis Landry	21
33	E Sanders	24
34	Cooper Kupp 	47
35	Sammy Watkins	62
36	Jordy Nelson	50
37	Corey Davis	27
38	Kelvin Benjamin	95
39	Robert Woods	10
40	Will Fuller	64
41	Kenny Golladay	20
42	Pierre Garcon	112
43	S Shepard	30
44	Nelson Agholor	40
45	Tyrell Williams	45
46	Alshon Jeffery	26
47	Tyler Lockett	11
48	Allen Hurns 	99
49	Julian Edelman	23
50	R Matthews	182
51	Paul Richardson	104
52	John Ross	77
53	DeVante Parker	106
54	Calvin Ridley	18
55	John Brown	39
56	C Meredith 	143
57	Dede Westbrook	32
58	Mohamed Sanu	28
59	DeSean Jackson	34
60	Randall Cobb	89
61	D.J. Moore	35
64	Christian Kirk 	58
65	Chris Godwin	25
66	Anthony Miller 	52
70	Mike Williams	22
71	Donte Moncrief	55
75	C Sutton	48
82	Zay Jones	36
87	Cole Beasley	54
92	Tyler Boyd	17
98	Taylor Gabriel	53
102	Adam Humphries	31
103	A Callaway	51
119	Rashard Higgins	56
122	Curtis Samuel	42

 

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1	Rob Gronkowski		11
2	Travis Kelce		1
3	Zach Ertz		3
4	Jimmy Graham		14
5	Greg Olsen 		22
6	Evan Engram		13
7	Delanie Walker 		94
8	Trey Burton		6
9	Kyle Rudolph		9
10	Jack Doyle 		36
11	Jordan Reed		17
12	David Njoku		8
13	Jared Cook		5
14	George Kittle		2
15	O.J. Howard		10
16	Eric Ebron		4
17	Seferian-Jenkins	68
18	Charles Clay		64
19	Cameron Brate		18
20	Austin Hooper		7
21	Tyler Eifert		54
22	Ben Watson		23
23	Vance McDonald		12
24	Seals-Jones		33
25	Vernon Davis		25
26	Luke Willson		82
27	Mike Gesicki		63
28	Tyler Kroft		104
29	Ryan Griffin		42
30	Jake Butt		84
31	Nick Vannett		30
33	Gerald Everett		24
34	Dallas Goedert		20
37	Antonio Gates		28
38	Blake Jarwin		26
43	Mark Andrews		16
45	Jesse James		21
51	Chris Herndon		15
80	C.J. Uzomah		19
NR	Jordan Thomas		27
NR	Ian Thomas		29

 

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Fun little experiment to go back and look at my rankings from last year.  Here's the ones I overrated:

Jimmy Garoppolo, David Johnson, Jordan Howard, Kenyan Drake, Evan Engram, Josh Gordon, Corey Davis, Sammy Watkins

And the underrated group:

Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, Davante Adams, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, George Kittle, James Conner, Tarik Cohen, Robert Woods

That is basically just guys that were in my top100 of my rankings last year.  Overall I think it's a good list.  Out of the one's I overrated, I missed cause of injury, or I was too optimistic for a breakout.  Out of the underrated group I didn't trust the talent as much as I probably should have, and then there were some fluky ones that probably won't repeat that had career years like Mahomes, Cohen, and Woods.  Less chasing for me.  

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16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Using Dodds 9/3 season projections as the face of the FBG franchise, here's how things turned out using standard FBG scoring.
The list has the players ranked by projections and then how they finished the season.
This is not an indictment of Dodds' projections, just a baseline to see how things played out from before the season started to how things actually ended up.
Using predicted points scored and actual points scored would likely be a better exercise . . . as would actual draft order vs. end of year value, but that's more time than I am willing to invest at this moment.

QUARTERBACKS:


1	Aaron Rodgers		7
2	Cam Newton 		14
3	Deshaun Watson		4
4	Tom Brady		12
5	Russell Wilson		10
6	Drew Brees		8
7	Matthew Stafford	20
8	Kirk Cousins		9
9	Jimmy Garoppolo 	39
10	Philip Rivers		13
11	Ben Roethlisberger	3
12	Jared Goff		6
13	Matt Ryan		2
14	Alex Smith 		32
15	Andrew Luck		5
16	Patrick Mahomes 	1
17	Dak Prescott		11
18	Marcus Mariota		26
19	Carson Wentz 		23
20	Blake Bortles		24
21	Mitchell Trubisky	15
22	Tyrod Taylor		42
23	Eli Manning		16
24	Andy Dalton		27
25	Derek Carr		18
26	Ryan Tannehill		30
27	Case Keenum		19
28	Jameis Winston		21
29	Joe Flacco		31
30	Sam Darnold		25
31	Josh Allen		22
32	Josh Rosen		33
33	Sam Bradford		49
34	Ryan Fitzpatrick	28
35	Josh McCown		47
36	Baker Mayfield		17
37	Lamar Jackson		29
38	Nathan Peterman		50
39	Nick Foles		36
40	Blaine Gabbert		43

 

Further confirmation drafting a QB early is the worst possible fantasy mistake 

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20 hours ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

David Johnson's value was killed by situation.

 

 

8 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Fun little experiment to go back and look at my rankings from last year.  Here's the ones I overrated:

Jimmy Garoppolo, David Johnson, Jordan Howard, Kenyan Drake, Evan Engram, Josh Gordon, Corey Davis, Sammy Watkins

 

David Johnson finished as an RB1 (right around RB10) in most scoring systems.  How overrated was he actually?  The team itself was dreadful and he didn't have the huge games he has had in the past but overall he wasn't as bad as the perception that most had for his season.  He was still an auto start every week and returned starting caliber performance.

 

I would think he is a good opportunity to be way undervalued because of this misconception that he had a bad year.  The unrealistic high expectations he had last year overshadowed his actually solid performance.  I think that was a floor for him so he might have a lot of value for this year. 

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16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

9	A.J. Green 	38
25	Josh Gordon 	43
34	Cooper Kupp 	47
55	John Brown	39

 

I know you pointed out some of the limitations of your methodology above, but I just wanted to show a few guys whose final values were very skewed due to injury and situation.

Green and Kupp were high-end WR1s during the stretch of games that they were healthy, so the final ranking is very misleading. 

Gordon was also solid before he went back off the wagon.

Brown put up solid WR2 numbers with Flacco and was essentially ignored once Jackson became the starter.

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On 4/15/2019 at 9:39 AM, Stinkin Ref said:

Mahomes was easily the most underrated player of 2018....most didn't have him in the top 12. From a ROI perspective it wasn't even close.....

With hindsight, yeah. With our knowledge last year, I think he was ranked fairly. He was a boom bust which boomed.

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5 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I know you pointed out some of the limitations of your methodology above, but I just wanted to show a few guys whose final values were very skewed due to injury and situation.

Green and Kupp were high-end WR1s during the stretch of games that they were healthy, so the final ranking is very misleading. 

Gordon was also solid before he went back off the wagon.

Brown put up solid WR2 numbers with Flacco and was essentially ignored once Jackson became the starter.

Many of the players that ended up as outliers were either players that got hurt or benefited from someone else getting hurt (or suspended or sat out, etc.). That’s the nature of football, and none of us has knowledge of pending injuries, although someone like Gronk would typically be someone to potentially downgrade due to injury risk. 

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16 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

With hindsight, yeah. With our knowledge last year, I think he was ranked fairly. He was a boom bust which boomed.

meh....if people paid attention to the "meaningless" week 17 start two years ago at DEN where Mahomes beat the Broncos with second string lineman and WR's....it should have been a little easier to see......while it wasn't a huge FF points game for him....the talent was there.....people would have also benefited from hearing Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr., and Von Miller.....(three of the best defensive players in the league) rave about him and call him the real deal etc.,....he played so well in that game, he actually got pulled as KC went out to a nice lead, then Tyler Bray came in and turned it over twice allowing the Broncos to tie it up.....Reid put Mahomes back in and he led them to the game winning drive....he was legit....and then KC goes and trades away Alex Smith who just had the best year of his CAREER on a very talented explosive offense....and then Mahomes turns some heads in the preseason.....

see thats the thing....most of the FF whiz kid experts play it safe before the season and it's like a heard of sheep when it comes to their pre season rankings....very few (hell I can't think any) of them are willing to actually plant their flag in a guys corner and make a call that is outside the box.....sure they may throw out "these are my sleepers"....but thats too easy and pretty lazy....honestly everything was lined up perfectly for Mahomes and he should have been ranked MUCH higher even if he wouldn't have had the monster year.....with the talent and coach he had around him, it was really a no brainer.....he was going to have a very good year....should people have expected 5000/50....no but there is really no reason he should have been QB16 which is right in the middle of the 32.....the year Alex Smith had should have been a huge indicator of what was to come....but everybody wants to "wait and see"...

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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Most of the 3rd-4th round runningbacks were overrated.

Alex Collins: he wasn't who we thought he was. Misread of talent.

Kenyan Drake: he was still serviceable, but we over estimated his chance of a huge workload after Gore signed.

Jordan Howard: like Drake, he was still serviceable. Woefully ineffective though, saved only by TDs. Basically nonexistant in the passing game.

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2 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

meh....if people paid attention to the "meaningless" week 17 start two years ago at DEN where Mahomes beat the Broncos with second string lineman and WR's....it should have been a little easier to see......while it wasn't a huge FF points game for him....the talent was there.....people would have also benefited from hearing Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr., and Von Miller.....(three of the best defensive players in the league) rave about him and call him the real deal etc.,....he played so well in that game, he actually got pulled as KC went out to a nice lead, then Tyler Bray came in and turned it over twice allowing the Broncos to tie it up.....Reid put Mahomes back in and he led them to the game winning drive....he was legit....and then KC goes and trades away Alex Smith who just had the best year of his CAREER on a very talented explosive offense....and then Mahomes turns some heads in the preseason.....

see thats the thing....most of the FF whiz kid experts play it safe before the season and it's like a heard of sheep when it comes to their pre season rankings....very few (hell I can't think any) of them are willing to actually plant their flag in a guys corner and make a call that is outside the box.....sure they may throw out "these are my sleepers"....but thats too easy and pretty lazy....honestly everything was lined up perfectly for Mahomes and he should have been ranked MUCH higher even if he wouldn't have had the monster year.....with the talent and coach he had around him, it was really a no brainer.....he was going to have a very good year....should people have expected 5000/50....no but there is really no reason he should have been QB16 which is right in the middle of the 32.....the year Alex Smith had should have been a huge indicator of what was to come....but everybody wants to "wait and see"...

I know you liked him before the draft so this makes sense to you. But you could go through a reason list like this for every player you liked or didnt. It works out sometimes, other times it doesnt.

Just dealing facts though, Mahomes was a 10 pick (maybe?) and a first year starter. How often do they work out? And also, I'd bet Mahomes has one of the highest adps for a first year starter qb.

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