Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Who will be left after the Left eats its own? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Max Power
- Start date
Gopher State
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
There's just not much to say. There are a bunch of nominees and a long way to go. The 2 old white guys are leading now so I don't know how anyone can respond to the idea that Democrats don't like them. AOC gets a lot of attention but it's driven as much by the right as the left. Sure Bernie and Biden have gotten some criticism but thats' part of being the most well known, the highest polling and the ones with the longest public history. It just comes with the territory of being a front runner.Max Power said:
badmojo1006
Footballguy
It was never on the rails. Stuck in a ditch outside HobokenMax Power said:
Max Power
Footballguy
So I didn't just watch 30 minutes of CNN poking at Bernie?
Click this... https://www.cnn.com/politics
- Several mentions of Trump. A couple of Omar, one AOC, two Buttigieg, one Bernie.
Max Power
Footballguy
Your answer was logical and probably the closest to reality. I think half the people are here just to argue.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
The Democratic candidates will be civil to one another. Some of the passionate supporters will get nasty on occasion but that will largely be ignored. Nobody is “eating” their own.
Max Power
Footballguy
We'll see. It might be an aggressive phrase, but right now the Left can even agree what a Progressive liberal is.
timschochet
Footballguy
On specific policy issues? More than a few. On Trump himself? I can’t think of one.Gopher State said:
supermike80
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
supermike80
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don’t think Trump will be running as a Democrat in 2020 not do I think any of the fringier Dems are anything like Trump.
Last edited by a moderator:
supermike80
Footballguy
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Pretty confident that no matter the number now there will be only one on my ballot as the democrat candidate come the election.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I just don’t think that connection you are making is relevant. You could just as easily view it the opposite way and say the side with lots of candidates and lots of chaos won the Presidency last election.
supermike80
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
But you haven’t really made any kind of argument to the contrary here. I still don’t understand why a large number of candidates in April of 2019 is going to hurt the eventual Democratic nominee, whoever that is. Please explain your reasoning on this.
supermike80
Footballguy
I think it spreads the candidates too thin and will lead to a democratic challenge that is weak. That's my feeling. Could be wrong, I am wrong a lot, but I don't like what i'm seeing. Ive made it no secret I'm no fan of the democratic party right now..not over politics, but over direction. In 2016 the republicans nominated a moron......and he beat one of the worst democratic candidates to win the election in history.
I don't see that weakness in the republican support of Trump and he will be a legitimate incumbent. I would like the democratic party to get behind a few candidates NOW..with their money and support..and start the challenge. This level of candidates spreads the support over too many people and that to me cant be good at this point.
timschochet
Footballguy
No I get that you believe this. I still don’t understand your reasoning. It sure seems to me like, despite the large number, there are only about 4-5 candidates with a real chance at the nomination and by the time we get to the debates in a few months, this will shrink down even more.
supermike80
Footballguy
I feel the plethora of candidates are distracting voters from the 4-5 "real" ones and again, it's wasting time. The democratic party has been wasting time since the election in 2016.
Tick tick tick....
timschochet
Footballguy
1. You feel this based on what? Certainly not on media attention, which has been focused on the 4-5 and is not giving the rest any attention. So how are the voters distracted?
2. Your second statement is demonstrably false. Only 5 months ago the Democratic Party won a historic nationwide landslide victory in the House of Representatives, with a campaign message that should win in 2020 as well. The blue wave was enormous. How do you square that with your statement that they have been wasting time?
supermike80
Footballguy
I base it on the fact that 16 (or more now) people are running? What?
2...Recounted multiple states(tick tick)...absurdly and embarrassingly asked the states electors to not certify(tick tick) are seriously discussing impeachment(tick tick)
If you want to say your party is on their game, then oK..I think they are utterly lost and will lose horribly in 2020--and that sucks
Last edited by a moderator:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don’t think most people are paying any attention right now and the reason Biden and Bernie are polling well is everyone knows who they are. Also there is an advantage to having lots of candidates (beyond giving peoole lots of options) and that is to serves as a shield. If we only had 3 or 4 candidates, they would be getting a lot more negative attacks coming their way now. Right now people like Harris are able to fly a bit under the radar.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Only hardcore politial followers pay much attention right now. If you asked 100 random people who the Democratic nominees are right now, most could probably name 1 or 2 at best imo.
Look, I don't care if you're trolling. I'll take you at your word that you're generally open to supporting a Democrat next year and are not sure how to navigate the next year and a half.Max Power said:
My main piece of advice is to remember it's April 2019 and nothing is really happening yet. Most of the people in the race right now will be gone by the time the first couple primaries are held. Don't waste mental space on them. (And don't waste mental space on AOC, who is constitutionally barred from even running). Instead, see how things play out once people actually start voting. If old white dudes like Biden and Bernie underperform that will at least give you a data point for the hypothesis that old white dudes aren't what Dems are looking for.
The other thing I'd say is not to assume there's some grand strategy at play here on behalf of the media, the Democratic Establishment or the Powers That Be. Biden got roasted because a woman posted a first-person account of his behavior and the media rushed to cover it because it was a good story. Bernie decided to pick a fight with Think Progress/CAP. No one's pulling the strings on all these incidents it's just a bunch of stuff that's happening.
Anyway, I'm curious to hear how your thought process plays out once the voting starts. Never Trumpers/Reluctant Trumpers are going to be a really interesting voting bloc next year, and by definition many of them will be Republicans who are sizing up a Democratic candidate for the first time in awhile, if ever. It will be fascinating to watch.
supermike80
Footballguy
I agree...I cant name all 16. didn't even know there WERE 16 till CNN told me there were
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Exactly, it’s like the first week of college basketball season. Sure there are 600 teams that could win the NCAA title but nobody is paying much attention now and none of it will prevent people from filling out a bracket come March or watching the Final 4.
supermike80
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Me too. My only real reference point is the GOP last time around. They had just as many candidates and many of them had no business running- Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, etc. It didn’t prevent the GOP from rallying behind a candidate and him winning. It’s also hard to imagine the Democratic primary being anywhere as nasty and divided as the GOP one. Lindsey Graham and others suck up to Trump now but during the primary they called him deranged and unfit.
whoknew
Footballguy
NCCommish said:
I was listening to the 538 podcast this morning and Nate Silver made a point that Bernie is not the front runner. He put Biden above Bernie. And said its hard to measure someone like Bernie - with 100% name recognition - to someone like Mayor Pete, with 50% name recognition.
He basically put those two kind of even at this point, when you adjust polling for name recognition.
All three had a Kamala Harris in the top tier also. With Beto just below that.
NCCommish
Footballguy
He is the front runner by all measures unless you want to do some gymnastics. Was Hillary not the front runner when Bernie had almost no name recognition? Seems like a reach. Plus we are now seeing polls moving Bernie ahead of Biden outside the margin of error. Bernie is your frontrunner.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I prefer Bernie to Biden, but Biden leads him in virtually every early poll. The one poll showing Bernie ahead nationally was n=356 with an MOE of 5.2%, which I believe statisticians refer to in technical terms as "poop."
Last edited by a moderator:
adonis
Footballguy
NCCommish
Footballguy
Emerson's monthly tracking poll has him pulling ahead with a margin of error of 3 or 3.5% as I recall. And he was up 5.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
MOEs apply to each number. So if the poll has an MOE of 5% a candidate would need to lead by 10% to be clear of the MOE.
Not that it matters, really. The important thing is the aggregate numbers, not individual polls with small sample sizes, and the aggregate numbers show Biden with a small but consistent lead and Bernie consistently in second place.
BTW I agree with adonis- Biden will probably falter after he declares unless he shows some newfound skill in campaigning, and Bernie is probably the best bet for the nomination at the moment. But for now, Biden leads.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Just early name recognition, muscle memory, nothing more. I think folks are exhausted from fighting the battles of yesteryear and are looking ot the future. Of course I am the worst political prognosticator around. I still cannot predict Trump winning in 2016.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Can't lead a race you aren't in IMO. And we know about 30% of Bidens support will go to Bernie, as of now, if he doesn't run or just pulls a Joe for president fade.
badmojo1006
Footballguy
supermike80
Footballguy
whoknew
Footballguy
NCCommish
Footballguy
whoknew
Footballguy
So 30% of the people who put Biden as their first choice say Bernie would be their second choice? That seems weird. They are on opposite ends of the Democratic spectrum.
Seems like a name recognition issue.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Name recognition for sure. Most people just don't know who the other people are. Also I still insist many voters don't vote based on actual issues, they vote for the person they like. It's feel. The overlap between people who's 1st and 2nd choices were Bernie and Trump last time around was significant and they were polar opposite players idea-wise.
Last edited by a moderator:
Similar threads
