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Hypothetical - You're Trump's Manager and Your Life Depends On Him Winning In 2020 - Who Do You Least Want To Face? (1 Viewer)

Hypothetical - You're Trump's Manager and Your Life Depends On Him Winning In 2020 - Who Do You Leas

  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 8 11.1%
  • Kamala Harris

    Votes: 9 12.5%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Beto O'Rourke

    Votes: 7 9.7%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 9 12.5%
  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 25 34.7%
  • Cory Booker

    Votes: 2 2.8%
  • Amy Klobuchar

    Votes: 7 9.7%
  • Andrew Yang

    Votes: 1 1.4%
  • Julian Castro

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kirsten Gillibrand

    Votes: 4 5.6%

  • Total voters
    72

Joe Bryant

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Hypothetical - You're Trump's Manager and Your Life Depends On Him Winning In 2020 - Who Do You Least Want To Face?

No bogus trick way out of the question. 

If your goal was Trump winning in 2020, who do you least want to face in the election? And why?

 
Tough call. 

First off, I’m one of those who believes that you have to win the center to win most elections. Progressive candidates IMO will have less chance to win the necessary Midwest states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Which means the ones I would fear the most would be the moderate candidates: Biden, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Harris, Klobuchar. I don’t think Booker, Beto, or Klobuchar have much of a shot at the present time. And Harris leans more progressive than the others. So that leaves Biden and Buttigieg. 

Conventional wisdom probably says Biden. Biden, if he wins the nomination, gets the best of all worlds: the Obama vote, the centrist vote, and he can take back the blue collar vote in the Midwest. On the other hand, Buttigieg is young with a positive message and a passionate group of followers. 

I’m thinking Buttigieg. 

 
I would be most concerned about the following:

1. Biden
2. Booker
3. Harris
4. Sanders
5. Buttigieg

Booker and Harris are not strong candidates, but they could motivate African Americans.

Sanders may scare off anti-socialists, but most of those people are voting Republican anyway.

Buttigieg is too much of an unknown and may not have any scandals or skeletons to exploit. (Although I fully expect the National Enquirer to run a few "live boy" stories between now and the time they are sold.)

All the others have obvious weaknesses that Trump can exploit.
 

 
Biden or Bernie. Tough to split. I think Biden attracts more of the Democratic base but Bernie would do better with independents- again there was a weirdly significant crossover between Bernie and Trump fans last election. 

 
I'm going with Klobuchar.  She's well liked here in MN, even by Republicans.  Trump is a master at coining nicknames for his opponents, but I think that could turn off a lot of people if he does that to Klobuchar, especially moderate Republicans and women.  

 
I'm going with Klobuchar.  She's well liked here in MN, even by Republicans.  Trump is a master at coining nicknames for his opponents, but I think that could turn off a lot of people if he does that to Klobuchar, especially moderate Republicans and women.  


If Klobuchar could get through the primary I think she'd destroy Trump.  But I don't think she can get through the primary.
I agree with these guys.

 
Another vote for Klobuchar.

Her toughness, temperament and legal mind would completely embarrass Trump in the debates. See: Kavanaugh, Brett

Her policies would appeal to three distinct segments - moderate Democrats, independents and sane Republicans. Pick a liberal VP and it's a landslide.

Progressive Democrats will struggle.

 
Biden easily beats Trump, the others are 50-50 to beat Trump. Plus after Trump Biden could calm things down for at least 4 years. Not sure the average Dem is ready to make a sharp left  turn. 

 
Another vote for Klobuchar.

Her toughness, temperament and legal mind would completely embarrass Trump in the debates. See: Kavanaugh, Brett

Her policies would appeal to three distinct segments - moderate Democrats, independents and sane Republicans. Pick a liberal VP and it's a landslide.

Progressive Democrats will struggle.
I voted Kamala for the same reasons as your first sentence.  She is more progressive than Klobuchar, but more moderate than some of the other Dem candidates.

 
After 2016, I'm trying to quit predicting things. But one thing I will say about Harris that I think is an underrated strength: Unlike most of the other candidates (and most politicians, really), she's not an easy target for mockery. Much as Trump always seems wrong-footed by Pelosi because she's a strong woman who doesn't take #### from anyone, I think there would be a similar dynamic with Harris. My guess is they'll try to portray her as some loopy Californian hippy, but, much as Obama's demeanor belied the stereotype of a wild-eyed foreign radical, I think trying to make Harris out to be something she's not may actually redound to her benefit by reassuring people once they see her in person.

(Of course, if I actually were Trump's campaign manager, I would probably share some of his racism and misogyny and would therefore underrate Harris and overrate Biden, but for the purposes of this hypothetical let's assume I'm the same person I am right now and am only working for Trump because he's holding my wife and children at gunpoint and will shoot them unless I help him get re-elected.)

 
I voted for Pete - because I think he is the polar opposite to Trump, and Trump would have a difficult time winning votes if he goes the bully route against Buttigieg.  But, I think the next most difficult candidate will be Kamala Harris.

 
Another vote for Klobuchar.

Her toughness, temperament and legal mind would completely embarrass Trump in the debates. See: Kavanaugh, Brett

Her policies would appeal to three distinct segments - moderate Democrats, independents and sane Republicans. Pick a liberal VP and it's a landslide.

Progressive Democrats will struggle.
I would vote for Klobucher over the dem candidates as we need more of a centrist dem at this point in time.  I really don`t care if the "progressive dems" struggle with her.

 
I think Biden at his best would give Trump the most trouble.

I'm not a huge Biden fan though, so I'd prefer someone else who could get the job done against Trump, but who would be more aligned with what I value in a candidate (it's not just Trumpbeatability factor)

 
Klobuchar....a female who won't get in the mud with him would ruin him.  Any of them who stay on message and talk only of policy will destroy him.  Even after four years can you envision him having any sort of in depth policy discussion?  Debates would be brutal.  I don't expect to see any in the general.  If his campaign were smart, they'd avoid at all costs.

 
Vote Beto but it's close between several as others have said.  

If the question were the opposite - who would I MOST want to face - definitely Warren.

 
Klobuchar....a female who won't get in the mud with him would ruin him.  Any of them who stay on message and talk only of policy will destroy him.  Even after four years can you envision him having any sort of in depth policy discussion?  Debates would be brutal.  I don't expect to see any in the general.  If his campaign were smart, they'd avoid at all costs.
Trump doesn't engage on in depth policy discussions.  Did you watch the debates between him and Hillary?  

Hillary was well versed on the details of policy, could discuss circles around most folks, but Trump never got into detail, and when pressed, he doubled down on what he said, made a dismissive comment, got the crowd to cheer, and the format of the debate didn't allow for follow-ups.

Trump has spent his entire adult life not needing to worry about details, blustering, bluffing, insulting, lying, manipulating, showboating, harassing, and otherwise deflecting serious questions of substance.  He's as good at it as you can get.  Putting Klobuchar up against him and thinking it will matter seems to be missing what he did to Hillary.  She won debates on substance, but that's not what the GOP was looking for, and based on their continued 90+% support of him it's not what they continue to be interested in.

 
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By the way, the dumbest argument in favor of any candidate IMO is "S/he would destroy Trump in a debate." The debates take place incredibly late in the process, when most opinions of the candidates are already set. The format pretty much prevents any direct interaction between them. And the results almost never have any impact. All post-debate polls showed that Hillary trounced Trump in all three debates in 2016; lot of good that did her.

Tell me how a candidate will fare against Trump in terms of her overall strategy, her messaging, her ability to out-organize him, etc. But get the fantasy of "Mayor Pete goes toe-to-toe on stage with Trump and lays the SMACKDOWN!" out of your head. Campaigns don't work that way.

 
Klobuchar....a female who won't get in the mud with him would ruin him.  Any of them who stay on message and talk only of policy will destroy him.  Even after four years can you envision him having any sort of in depth policy discussion?  Debates would be brutal.  I don't expect to see any in the general.  If his campaign were smart, they'd avoid at all costs.
I sometimes think a debate would actually be a winner for Trump, and wonder if it's the Democrats who would rather not have a debate. As adonis and zftcg said, Trump didn't do anything of substance in the debates with Hillary.  He just blusters and bullies.  Why get up on the same stage with him and give him the opportunity to make stuff up and call you names?  What do you have to gain? Sure, you'll look smarter than him, but does that really convince anybody to vote for you who wasn't already going to vote for you? I wonder if the better strategy is to skip one on one encounters with Trump, and just do your own thing.  

 
By the way, the dumbest argument in favor of any candidate IMO is "S/he would destroy Trump in a debate." The debates take place incredibly late in the process, when most opinions of the candidates are already set. The format pretty much prevents any direct interaction between them. And the results almost never have any impact. All post-debate polls showed that Hillary trounced Trump in all three debates in 2016; lot of good that did her.

Tell me how a candidate will fare against Trump in terms of her overall strategy, her messaging, her ability to out-organize him, etc. But get the fantasy of "Mayor Pete goes toe-to-toe on stage with Trump and lays the SMACKDOWN!" out of your head. Campaigns don't work that way.
Pete may be the only one I see winning a debate with Trump.  And it won't be based on policy, it'll be based on tone, based on the different in terms of image (old, angry white guy vs young, charismatic white guy).  It will be a display of differences, one guy who served his country, the other who dodged.  One who is measured and respectful, and the other who is belligerent and disrespectful. 

Regardless of the substance, regardless of the policy points, I think Pete would walk away the winner if he held his own, maintained his composure, and pointed out these differences.

 
By the way, the dumbest argument in favor of any candidate IMO is "S/he would destroy Trump in a debate." The debates take place incredibly late in the process, when most opinions of the candidates are already set. The format pretty much prevents any direct interaction between them. And the results almost never have any impact. All post-debate polls showed that Hillary trounced Trump in all three debates in 2016; lot of good that did her.

Tell me how a candidate will fare against Trump in terms of her overall strategy, her messaging, her ability to out-organize him, etc. But get the fantasy of "Mayor Pete goes toe-to-toe on stage with Trump and lays the SMACKDOWN!" out of your head. Campaigns don't work that way.
This is just ridiculous. Debates don't matter?

Count the Washington Post among those that disagree. It was late deciders determined the outcome of the 2016 election.

Not to mention JFK vs. Nixon when it all began, Reagan's classic one-liners and the Obama debate II and III classic comeback vs. Romney.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/17/how-america-decided-at-the-very-last-moment-to-elect-donald-trump/?utm_term=.2c8c0d8f922a

 
Pete may be the only one I see winning a debate with Trump.  And it won't be based on policy, it'll be based on tone, based on the different in terms of image (old, angry white guy vs young, charismatic white guy).  It will be a display of differences, one guy who served his country, the other who dodged.  One who is measured and respectful, and the other who is belligerent and disrespectful. 

Regardless of the substance, regardless of the policy points, I think Pete would walk away the winner if he held his own, maintained his composure, and pointed out these differences.
Yes, but my point is that wouldn't help him win the election. At most, it would help at the margins.

Interestingly enough, PB himself had a good point about this in his Pod Save America interview. I can't find the exact clip, but he basically said we've all had the fantasy of what we'd love to say to Trump on the debate stage, and then he says that since he'll never actually use those lines, he'll tell us what his would be.

 
By the way, the dumbest argument in favor of any candidate IMO is "S/he would destroy Trump in a debate." The debates take place incredibly late in the process, when most opinions of the candidates are already set. The format pretty much prevents any direct interaction between them. And the results almost never have any impact. All post-debate polls showed that Hillary trounced Trump in all three debates in 2016; lot of good that did her.

Tell me how a candidate will fare against Trump in terms of her overall strategy, her messaging, her ability to out-organize him, etc. But get the fantasy of "Mayor Pete goes toe-to-toe on stage with Trump and lays the SMACKDOWN!" out of your head. Campaigns don't work that way.
I agree, and I've been saying this for years.  People put way, way too much hope/stock in presidential debates.  

Hillary destroyed Trump in all of their debates.  How did that turn out for her?

 
The other advantage for Klobuchar (and Biden) would be to completely neutralize any potential Howard Schultz effect.

 
If the economy keeps kicking along like it is I don't think anyone will seriously challenge Trump.  I guess Biden would be my choice.

 
This is just ridiculous. Debates don't matter?

Count the Washington Post among those that disagree. It was late deciders determined the outcome of the 2016 election.

Not to mention JFK vs. Nixon when it all began, Reagan's classic one-liners and the Obama debate II and III classic comeback vs. Romney.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/17/how-america-decided-at-the-very-last-moment-to-elect-donald-trump/?utm_term=.2c8c0d8f922a
OK, in order:

  • Late deciders were key in 2016 most likely because of the Comey letter, not the debates. If it had been the debates, Hillary would have pulled away, since all the polls showed viewers rated her performance better. By the way, the Post article you link to has zero mention of the debates, so I'm not sure how it proves your point.
  • I can't tell you the nitty-gritty of the 1960 election, since I wasn't alive then, but I'll concede that yeah, maybe the first time debates had ever occurred between presidential candidates, it might have had an impact. However, keep in mind that the race ended up being extremely close, so it's not like JFK used the debates to pull away (also, the part about Kennedy winning among TV watchers and Nixon among radio listeners is most likely a myth)
  • Reagan's debate with Carter also may have had a big impact. There was only one, held a week before the election, Reagan did well, and ended up turning a close race into a rout, though that also may have been a function of hostage talks with Iran collapsing right around the same time. His famous line to Mondale in the second '84 debate may have stabilized his campaign after a lackluster performance in the first debate, but Reagan was always going to win that race going away.
  • Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate stalled his momentum, but after improved performances in the final two debates he ended up ... with roughly the same lead he had before the debates, which was also the margin he ended up winning by. So ultimately it's hard to say they did much to decide the race.
  • You didn't mention 2000, but that may be my favorite example. Post-debate polling after the first one showed Gore winning, but after SNL did a skit about it, the conventional wisdom seemed to shift toward Bush (Gore didn't help things by overreacting after his staff made him watch the SNL skit). Yet in the end, Gore actually did end up outperforming his late polls and did what he needed to do to win (if not for the butterfly ballot). All of which is to say the effect of the debates on that race can officially be classified as ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Anyway, I'm not saying debates have zero effect, I'm saying their effect is vastly overrated, and they are therefore a bad criterion to use when deciding whom to support in the primary.

 
I would say Klobuchar, then Buttigieg.

I think it's really hard to paint Klobuchar as an irrational extremist or as weak or inexperienced. Her main faults are that she's boring and she's sometimes a difficult boss. But I think most people want boring at this point; and whatever Klobuchar's former staffers say about her won't compare to what Michael Cohen and others will say about Trump.

Buttigieg's main drawback is inexperience. I don't think Trump can pick on his youth because it just makes Trump look even older by comparison, which I think is a negative for him. And I don't think Trump can pick on his sexuality because gay people have been sufficiently humanized by this point that it would just be gauche.

I think Biden is easy to vilify for many of the same reasons Hillary was (minus an email server, plus a tendency to put his foot in his mouth). He's part of the Deep State Establishment Swamp.

 
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I sometimes think a debate would actually be a winner for Trump, and wonder if it's the Democrats who would rather not have a debate. As adonis and zftcg said, Trump didn't do anything of substance in the debates with Hillary.  He just blusters and bullies.  Why get up on the same stage with him and give him the opportunity to make stuff up and call you names?  What do you have to gain? Sure, you'll look smarter than him, but does that really convince anybody to vote for you who wasn't already going to vote for you? I wonder if the better strategy is to skip one on one encounters with Trump, and just do your own thing.  
You guys may be correct.  It might be best to simply bombard the airwaves with Trump's record.  Any of the candidates could do that.  There needs to be someone who is able to clearly articulate their positions and show how Trump is simply trying to scare them into voting for him.  It should be easy enough to put out soundbytes of their proposals and show the start contract to Trump's actual actions too.

 
Biden is basically a much more likeable version of Hillary without without the massive amount of baggage.   Biden plays better in the general, but he will struggle in the primaries as he will be the establishment candidate.   

 
I sometimes think a debate would actually be a winner for Trump, and wonder if it's the Democrats who would rather not have a debate. As adonis and zftcg said, Trump didn't do anything of substance in the debates with Hillary.  He just blusters and bullies.  Why get up on the same stage with him and give him the opportunity to make stuff up and call you names?  What do you have to gain? Sure, you'll look smarter than him, but does that really convince anybody to vote for you who wasn't already going to vote for you? I wonder if the better strategy is to skip one on one encounters with Trump, and just do your own thing.  
It's almost surreal reading this type of post. All I hear in this Forum is bluster from the Democrats about how much Donald Trump sucks.

Now you have a chance to tell it to his face on national television and you're going to run and hide?

Trump will smell that fear a mile away and that is what will feed his bullying.

 
You guys may be correct.  It might be best to simply bombard the airwaves with Trump's record.  Any of the candidates could do that.  There needs to be someone who is able to clearly articulate their positions and show how Trump is simply trying to scare them into voting for him.  It should be easy enough to put out soundbytes of their proposals and show the start contract to Trump's actual actions too.
I think the point is it's how you "respond" to Trump over the course of a campaign, not in the three debates. Hillary did well against Trump in the debates, but throughout the campaign she let him dominate the conversation (admittedly, that was really hard to counter with a candidate like him). Also, her constant efforts to portray him as a bully were effective with some demos (college-educated women), but overall played into the "strength" message that he wanted to convey. In retrospect, it would have been better if she had put more emphasis on him as a fraud rather than a bully.

 
It's almost surreal reading this type of post. All I hear in this Forum is bluster from the Democrats about how much Donald Trump sucks.

Now you have a chance to tell it to his face on national television and you're going to run and hide?

Trump will smell that fear a mile away and that is what will feed his bullying.
One thing the debates are very useful for: raising the profile of a challenger, especially if he's facing an incumbent. The quintessential example was Clinton vs. George Bush. Overall, he performed better (especially in the town hall debate where Bush was checking his watch), but the more important thing that Clinton did was clear the "plausible president" bar. I think that's very important; whatever people may think of the incumbent, they're used to the idea of him being president. There's a mental leap challengers need to get voters to make to imagine someone new in that role.

Again, I don't think the debates are useless. Also, you never know when a candidate's performance (for good or for ill) will stand out so much that it will impact the race; if anyone is capable of blowing it with a single moment, it's Trump. I was mostly pushing back against the idea that it's a useful criteria for deciding between primary candidates.

 
One thing the debates are very useful for: raising the profile of a challenger, especially if he's facing an incumbent. The quintessential example was Clinton vs. George Bush. Overall, he performed better (especially in the town hall debate where Bush was checking his watch), but the more important thing that Clinton did was clear the "plausible president" bar. I think that's very important; whatever people may think of the incumbent, they're used to the idea of him being president. There's a mental leap challengers need to get voters to make to imagine someone new in that role.

Again, I don't think the debates are useless. Also, you never know when a candidate's performance (for good or for ill) will stand out so much that it will impact the race; if anyone is capable of blowing it with a single moment, it's Trump. I was mostly pushing back against the idea that it's a useful criteria for deciding between primary candidates.
Nice post. IMO Trump is hugely vulnerable with the right approach. All bullies are. Agree that debates shouldn't be in the primary category of criteria for determining a candidate but they can be difference makers in a close race. Trump showed he can be exposed when Rubio did it during the 2016 GOP primaries before overplaying his hand.

 
Nice post. IMO Trump is hugely vulnerable with the right approach. All bullies are. Agree that debates shouldn't be in the primary category of criteria for determining a candidate but they can be difference makers in a close race. Trump showed he can be exposed when Rubio did it during the 2016 GOP primaries before overplaying his hand.
My initial reaction to that was, 'What? Rubio was terrible!" But then I remembered you were right; he had some effective mockery of him in one of the debates before completely screwing it up (including responding to "Liddle Marco" with "Big Donald" :doh: ) and then trying to get down into the gutter with Trump by joking about his #### size.

Then again, Rubio's experience kind of proves the point about the uselessness of debates. He had a few lines that a liberal Democrat like me could appreciate, but in the end the GOP base was buying all the BS Trump was feeding them over whatever Rubio was selling. Debates weren't going to change that.

 
He ran as a populist. He hasn't governed as one. So a left wing populist who would should be the last person he wants to face. 

 
I agree, and I've been saying this for years.  People put way, way too much hope/stock in presidential debates.  

Hillary destroyed Trump in all of their debates.  How did that turn out for her?
I'm not old enough to remember the Nixon sweat debate. But does all the emphasis on debate go back to that? Or is it something else?

 
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I'm not old enough to remember the Nixon sweat debate. But does all the emphasis on debate go back to that? Or is it something else?
Actually that was a lot about how to appear on TV. Nixon wore a bad color as it tended to blend into the background given black and white TV. And of course the sweating. People who listened to it on radio thought Nixon won. People who watched thought Kennedy did. At the end of the day though it wasnt that big a deal given Nixon lost the popular vote by 2/10s of a percent. He got killed in the EC though.

 
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Actually that was a lot about how to appear on TV. Nixon wore a bad color as it tended to blend into the background given black and white TV. And of course the sweating. People who listened to it on radio thought Nixon won. People who watched thought Kennedy did. At the end of the day though it wasnt that big a deal given Nixon lost the popular vote by 2/10s of a percent. He got killed in the EC though.
As I mentioned above, this wisely accepted conventional wisdom is probably a myth.

 
Hypothetical - You're Trump's Manager and Your Life Depends On Him Winning In 2020 - Who Do You Least Want To Face?

No bogus trick way out of the question. 

If your goal was Trump winning in 2020, who do you least want to face in the election? And why?
I suspect even people trying to answer this question directly end up defaulting to the candidate they prefer (since they believe that person is the strongest candidate, wouldn't s/he also be the one Trump fears the most?)

So I have two questions:

First, for Joe: In your opinion, what is the distinction between the two?

For everyone else: Did anyone answer Joe's question with a name other than your preferred candidate? If so, why?

Not throwing shade at Joe at all. I actually thought it was an interesting spin on the usual question (kind of like when pollsters ask voters who they expect to win the election rather than who they're voting for). I'm just trying to figure out in my own mind how I view the two questions differently, and would appreciate hearing others' perspectives.

 
For everyone else: Did anyone answer Joe's question with a name other than your preferred candidate? If so, why?
I did, and suspect others did as well.

This question seems to answer the question: Which candidate do you believe would most likely beat Trump in an election?

Who I look for in a candidate to support doesn't rank that question terribly high.  Others like platform, philosophy, vision, etc matter more to me.

I picked Biden for the most likely to win, but Buttigieg is my top choice at the moment.

I think with the right campaign, Biden has the easiest path to victory.  I'd put Buttigieg/Sanders/Harris in the second tier, and everyone else lower down.

 

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