The opportunity draft (1 Viewer)

So much of dynasty fantasy football depends on opportunity. Skill is great, but in the wrong scheme, or wr drafted to a bad qb, buried on the depth chart, etc. can sink a players production and value. Conversely, a player drafted into a prime situation or into a starting role will rocket up boards. 

We’ve discussed the players to death, analyzed, and have our favorites, now we wait to see where they land.

If you could draft landing spots rather than specific players, how would that draft go? You’d basically get any player drafted by that team for that position. A lot goes into it- projecting whether a team may use a premium pick on a position, current depth chart, how many picks a team has and where they fall, other team needs, draft class depth, etc.  

Draft picks per team

Depth charts by team by position

For scoring purposes typical ppr 1/2/3/1/1flex

I’ll also add that these picks are my opinion. An actual draft I suspect someone would pull the trigger early on some of these spots.

1.01 Ind WR- weak depth chart, elite qb. 3 picks in the first 2 rds. 

1.02 Bal WR - Presents a starting gig, but we don’t know what we have at the qb position just yet. Lots of rd 1 wr  predictions. Could present do not draft for some people

1.03 Buf WR- Another case of clear path to targets. Big armed qb would go great with a deep threat. Another “DND” prospect for some people

1.04 Hou RB- a little outside the box here, but they have the ammo in the first few rounds to take a rb. I think there’s a great opportunity for a RB here. 

1.05 NE TE- I doubt ASJ is their answer here. With 2 2s and 3s they have the ammo to move up, but even Irv smith would be a solid get.  At this point I have to at least mention that I don’t view any te as a top 5 pick, but Hockenson or fant would probably be worth the risk/reward here. 

1.06 Oak RB- I honestly think they roll with Crowell and Richard, but a lot of experts predict a rb early, so I have to go with this. 

1.07 Atl RB- I went from 1.06 to 1.08, whoops. Thanks @Dezbelief and @travdogg

1.08 GB WR- that depth chart is far from settled, but I’m not sure they draft a we at all. 

1.09 Pit TE- Everyone is focused on rb/wr, but there is a clear need at TE unless you’re hitching your wagon to Vance. Picking at 20 te may be BPA anyway. 

1.10 KC RB- another team where I think the situation is settled for the year but lots of predictions otherwise. 

1.11 Indy RB- I like Mack and Hines but that seems like a flimsy tandem for a team with playoff aspirations. 

1.12 Sea WR- Baldwin and Lockett are not really wr1 guys, and Baldwin seems to be fading, although he was playing injured a lot. Definitely a gamble as Seattle doesn’t have a lot of picks.

Ill add more later today.

Snorkelson said:

1.02 Bal WR - Presents a starting gig, but we don’t know what we have at the qb position just yet. Lots of rd 1 wr  predictions. Could present do not draft for some people

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A WR landing in Baltimore would actually move him way down my board not up to no. 2.

Dr. Octopus said:

A WR landing in Baltimore would actually move him way down my board not up to no. 2.

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Yeah, some people would be straight up “do not draft.” I may put more value in opportunity than most. Can’t beast if you aren’t getting the rock. I think in this thought experiment I’m also looking at likelyhood of a team actually taking that position, and I feel safer that buffalo and Baltimore will adress the position early. 

Snorkelson said:

Yeah, some people would be straight up “do not draft.” I may put more value in opportunity than most. Can’t beast if you aren’t getting the rock.

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I do expect Baltimore to draft a WR - but that "opportunity" is offset by the fact the Ravens will be a run heavy team and their QB can't throw accurately.

Snorkelson said:

Yeah, some people would be straight up “do not draft.” I may put more value in opportunity than most. Can’t beast if you aren’t getting the rock. I think in this thought experiment I’m also looking at likelyhood of a team actually taking that position, and I feel safer that buffalo and Baltimore will adress the position early. 

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Opportunity isn't just about depth chart, though. It's about number of targets, quality of targets, and coverage. Juju was WR2 on his depth chart, but was well ahead of almost every WR1 in the league in number of targets, he got quality targets, and he rarely faced the other team's best CB. I'm not passing judgment on LJ's quality of targets in his second year, but one must wonder how many targets the WR1 in Baltimore will get and if a rookie will be up to the task of facing NFL CB1s. 

Nice topic!

Baltimore wr would be much lower for me. 

not on this list but on my top 12:

ne wr- if they take one round 2 or 3 I think that guy goes round 1 rookie drafts

oak te- if jared Cook can do that well imagine a better athlete like fant

phi rb- not much talent to out perform and a lot of targets available. 

TB rb- possibly the 2nd best opening at rb for me

notable omissions on my list compared to op:

ne te- whoever they take will be way over valued. No one has produced when Gronk was out. Gronk was that good; it's not the system. 

pit te- I dont see it. but I appreciate the mention. 

IND rb- dropped off my lost because of PHI and TB are better landing spots imo.

Dr. Dan said:

ne te- whoever they take will be way over valued. No one has produced when Gronk was out. Gronk was that good; it's not the system. 

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It's a little of both - yes Gronk is one of the best TEs of all time, but the Pats also revamped into a TE friendly system once they had Gronk and Hernandez. Who were the TEs backing up Gronk? Martellus Bennett did very well in NE, but outside of him there wasn't much on the roster.

I guess what I would say is that I don't think you can just pencil a TE in for the Pats just because it seems to us like such a need. Belichick adapts to the talent he has, and there's nothing to say their offense must run though a TE - it just does when they have talent like Gronk, Hernandez or Bennett. Maybe they go run heavy and just live on dump offs to White and Edelman or they draft a WR.

Dr. Octopus said:

It's a little of both - yes Gronk is one of the best TEs of all time, but the Pats also revamped into a TE friendly system once they had Gronk and Hernandez. Who were the TEs backing up Gronk? Martellus Bennett did very well in NE, but outside of him there wasn't much on the roster.

I guess what I would say is that I don't think you can just pencil a TE in for the Pats just because it seems to us like such a need. Belichick adapts to the talent he has, and there's nothing to say their offense must run though a TE - it just does when they have talent like Gronk, Hernandez or Bennett. Maybe they go run heavy and just live on dump offs to White and Edelman or they draft a WR.

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agree. If they landed Fant or Hockenson, maybe even Smith I'd say yes that player probably should be top 12. But if it's someone else, I'm not so sure. Jace whatshisface would he a 2nd round value, for me, if they landed him. Maybe even Irv Smith

Dr. Dan said:

agree. If they landed Fant or Hockenson, maybe even Smith I'd say yes that player probably should be top 12. But if it's someone else, I'm not so sure. Jace whatshisface would he a 2nd round value, for me, if they landed him. Maybe even Irv Smith

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For me it was a risk/reward pick, but as you try to do this it’s not really cut and dry. It’s more like ranking olines- before zeke was drafted they had a great oline and getting whatever back Dallas would have drafted would have been a great add, let alone the best one at the position. 

This crossed my mind as I weighed age difference between the wr prospects this year. If butler gets drafted to Indy he will vault into everyone’s top3 (if he isn’t there already) where some people are scared off by his age/one year of production. However a lot of people like DK metcalf but if he goes to BAL they downgrade him, so how much does age really matter vs opportunity for rookies? How do we discern value between wr1 targets from Lamar Jackson vs wr3 targets from Aaron Rodgers vs likely committee carries for a rb (no real clear lead job available imo) vs backup job with McCoy and gore ahead of you going forward (long term outlook.) 

Team makeup may influence this to some degree but there’s a lot to nuances to how to gauge value in these secondary areas that aren’t measured in production or 40 times. 

I like 1.07 the best.

Dr. Dan said:

Nice topic!

Baltimore wr would be much lower for me. 

not on this list but on my top 12:

ne wr- if they take one round 2 or 3 I think that guy goes round 1 rookie drafts

oak te- if jared Cook can do that well imagine a better athlete like fant

phi rb- not much talent to out perform and a lot of targets available. 

TB rb- possibly the 2nd best opening at rb for me

notable omissions on my list compared to op:

ne te- whoever they take will be way over valued. No one has produced when Gronk was out. Gronk was that good; it's not the system. 

pit te- I dont see it. but I appreciate the mention. 

IND rb- dropped off my lost because of PHI and TB are better landing spots imo.

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I'll be watching SF for a WR.

Dezbelief said:

I like 1.07 the best.

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So I did my top 12 and looked at who i took out from his 12 and who I added on mine. I counted through the lists 3 times as I had 4 added and 3 out. i thought i was going crazy

Dezbelief said:

I'll be watching SF for a WR.

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good one. I missed that

Atlanta RB would be near the top for me. I think Freeman is just about done, and wasn't really all that good to begin with, but had a couple huge years. That offense isn't going anywhere. 

Dezbelief said:

I like 1.07 the best.

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Lol, whoops! Well there’s my top 11....

travdogg said:

Atlanta RB would be near the top for me. I think Freeman is just about done, and wasn't really all that good to begin with, but had a couple huge years. That offense isn't going anywhere. 

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We have a new 1.07!

travdogg said:

Atlanta RB would be near the top for me. I think Freeman is just about done, and wasn't really all that good to begin with, but had a couple huge years. That offense isn't going anywhere. 

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another I missed. damn! 

A lot of great rb destinations this draft, yet people are sour on the RBS pre draft. itll be interesting to see any switch that happens 

These probably aren't worthy of the top 12 but worth a mention:

Miami WR -  sounds bad on the surface but he'd be the instant Miami WR1 and Fitz is capable of putting up big numbers in 2019. would likely be paired with a franchise QB at the top of the draft next year for 2020 and beyond.

Buffalo RB - while receiving options are a bigger need, McCoy is about done and you know you'd have his heir

NY Jets WR - temporary log jam behind Anderson, Crowder, Enunwa but if he emerges as the WR1 he's paired with a young QB on an up and coming team

NY Giants QB - despite FF QB's being devalued the Giants, with their talent and youth of their skills positions, are the best QB landing spot of the teams considering to draft one

Dr. Dan said:

another I missed. damn! 

A lot of great rb destinations this draft, yet people are sour on the RBS pre draft. itll be interesting to see any switch that happens 

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The problem for me is the lack of any clear starting spots. TB has Jones who didn’t look great but is still there. ATL has freeman and smith- freeman may be on the way out but he’s still there now. OAK signed Crowell who has been a decent back on bad teams. Houston has miller and foreman blocking the way. Lots of places to land but no clear path. 

Snorkelson said:

The problem for me is the lack of any clear starting spots. TB has Jones who didn’t look great but is still there. ATL has freeman and smith- freeman may be on the way out but he’s still there now. OAK signed Crowell who has been a decent back on bad teams. Houston has miller and foreman blocking the way. Lots of places to land but no clear path. 

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No clear cut path for sure, but I dont have a high opinion of any of those guys you listed. One could say MVS, ESB and Allison pose more of a hurdle for a WR in GB than Crowell and Jones on their teams. 

Houston and Atlanta rookie RBs I see as long game plays. When Freeman and Miller are gone, I honestly dont see Foreman being the lead guy, or Smith. Smith has a role, but that offense does best with 2 backs. I dont expect Foreman to ever be a long term fantasy asset. IMO best bet is to find someone who thinks he will be and get what you can. 

The reality of Houston's rb situation is they can grab someone now, or even next year with the solid rookie class. Even if Foreman is fully recovered, I think he missed his window and will be drafted over in 19 or 20

A couple off the wall ideas here:

I want the WR in Miami.  They're not being competitive, they'll either have the 1.01 or trade up for the 1.01 next year and take Tua Tagovailoa or 1 of the other great QB prospects for 2020, and be set for 10+ years.  And even their rookie year won't be hampered by bad QB play because Fitz is competent.  

Cardinals WR/TE is very much up for grabs.  Whoever it is, Rosen or Murray, I think they take 1 more weapon to pair with Kirk for the long haul.  I'd actually love the Cardinals to trade down to ~8 or so and take Hockensen.  

Jacksonville WR/TE, they'll realize Foles is a backup after this year so I'm playing the long game, similar to the Dolphins situation.

Jets WR, they have Herndon and Anderson but not much else.  Enunwa has been injury hampered and Crowder is a depth add.  Bell is good and all but he's on the downswing so where's Darnold's new favorite weapon?  I don't think it's on the current roster.  

I'd be very surprised if KC drafted a RB of consequence, if they even draft one at all. The Chiefs need help at every single level of their defense, as well as having bigger needs on the interior o-line, and possibly at WR. I suppose never say never, if somebody falls that they love, but I don't see RB as something the Chiefs will be targeting.

I think the only way Oakland doesn't go RB, is if Gruden is confident Lynch will come back. Crowell is ok, but he's not stopping you from upgrading, as both the Browns and Jets proved.

In fact, some team guesses for RB off the top of my head(sorry if this is a bit of a thread hijack)

Ari=Round 4-7, Edmunds is just a guy, and Johnson is a sneaky cap casualty if he doesn't rebound this year. Maybe Darrell Henderson if he falls?

Atl=Round 2-UDFA, could use an upgrade from Freeman now, but also seem to like Ito Smith for whatever reason. Maybe Miles Sanders?

Bal=none, they are set with Ingram/Edwards/Dixon.

Buf=none, I think they are content to roll with McCoy/Gore, and maybe get a young guy in 2020.

Car=none, CMC/Artis-Payne is a solid 1-2, Panthers simply have many bigger needs. A vet like Doug Martin might make sense.

Chi=Round 5-UDFA, Cohen/Davis is unproven and contract makes Davis no lock to fill a huge role. Would be earlier but no 1st/2nd round picks. Damien Harris maybe?

Cin=Round 4-7, Bernard is likely in his final year, and they drafted Mark Walton last year, only to see him fail. Maybe Devin Singletary?

Cle=none, especially if hang onto Duke Johnson.

Dal=Round 7-UDFA, Darius Jackson could use some competition  behind Zeke. Maybe Alexander Mattison? 

Den=Round 2-5, this is a sneaky spot, with a new staff, and no big money guy, Lindsay played well, but Freeman didn't, and Lindsay might be better suited to a change of pace role. This feels like a run the ball and play defense team going forward. David Montgomery could fit here.

Det=Round 7-UDFA, Johnson/Anderson/Riddick, is solid, but I think take a flier on a guy who may end up on the practice squad. Maybe stay local with Karan Higdon?

GB=none, Jones/Williams/Bibbs is fine. If Jones can stay healthy, he looks like a Pro Bowl RB to me. A vet like Spencer Ware could make sense as insurance.

Hou=none, they just have so many needs elsewhere. I think they still really like Foreman too. I think a vet like Jacquizz Rodgers would make more sense.

Ind=Round 7-UDFA, like Detroit, this might be a flier/PS addition. I'd say Darwin Thompson could make sense.

Jac=Round 5-UDFA, they signed Blue and Cunningham, but that doesn't prevent an addition, also Fournette is somewhat of a question mark long term. maybe Devine Ozigbo?

KC=none, Williams/Hyde/Williams is fine, and they need some many other pieces.

LAC=none, even with Gordon in a contract year, RB is an unlikely pick. Ekeler/Jackson proved to be capable at the very least last year.

LAR=none, Gurley's knee is a bit worrisome, but they really like Brown behind him, and are more likely to sign a vet like last year if need be. Jay Ajayi would be a cheap addition.

Mia=none, if Miami is truly playing the long game, then RB shouldn't be a priority at all. Drake/Ballage is worth seeing if they can carry the load. Maybe Corey Grant as a vet addition/returner?

Min=none, I think they like both Roc Thomas and Mike Boone, and Abdullah deserves another look as a backup behind Cook.

NE=Round 6-UDFA, the Patriots don't have a ton of needs, so a flier is always on the table. Jordan Scarlett would make some sense for them if they want to save some money behind White/Michel. 

NO=none, Kamara/Murray/Washington, is a very good trio. 

NYG=none, I'm not sure there is a position they need less.

NYJ=none, Montgomery and McGuire are more than adequate behind Bell.

Oak=Round 1-UDFA, entirely depends on if Lynch comes back. I dount Gruden just rolls with Crowell/Richard/Washington. Josh Jacobs gets mocked to them a lot, and it makes sense.

Phi=Round 5-UDFA, Howard/Clement/Adams could be ok, but I doubt they just roll with that.  Maybe Rodney Anderson is still there?

Pit=none, Conner looked very good, as did Samuels late in the year. A vet addition makes sense with the youth of Conner/Samuels. Maybe Bilal Powell?

SF=none, I'm not even sure they'll have room to keep Jeff Wilson, who had a couple nice games down the stretch.

Sea=none, Carson/Penny are locked in, and they still have Prosise/McKissic. 

TB=Round 3-UDFA, I don't think they've given up on Jones yet, but adding to him and Barber is a good idea. Bryce Love could be a good fit here.

Ten=none, Henry/Lewis is a very good combo, and McNichols is a worthy #3.

Was=none, Guice/Peterson/Thompson is more than good enough.

travdogg said:

Det=Round 7-UDFA, Johnson/Anderson/Riddick, is solid, but I think take a flier on a guy who may end up on the practice squad. Maybe stay local with Karan Higdon?

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What does Zach zenner have to do to get a job there? 

Snorkelson said:

What does Zach zenner have to do to get a job there? 

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I agree. He always seems to do well whenever they use him, but they don't seem to value him very much.

Dr. Octopus said:

It's a little of both - yes Gronk is one of the best TEs of all time, but the Pats also revamped into a TE friendly system once they had Gronk and Hernandez. Who were the TEs backing up Gronk? Martellus Bennett did very well in NE, but outside of him there wasn't much on the roster.

I guess what I would say is that I don't think you can just pencil a TE in for the Pats just because it seems to us like such a need. Belichick adapts to the talent he has, and there's nothing to say their offense must run though a TE - it just does when they have talent like Gronk, Hernandez or Bennett. Maybe they go run heavy and just live on dump offs to White and Edelman or they draft a WR.

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To me the tell is similar to the one in GB (which I also think is overrated as a TE landing spot), and that is that basically everyone they had in there was as good or better elsewhere.

So for instance Martellus Bennett put up a solid 27-335-4 in 8 games where Gronk didn't play in 2016, which prorates out to 54-770-8.  That's a pretty good TE season....but no better than what he was already doing in 2013-2015 in Chicago (he even put up a 90-916-6 season there).  Chicago wasn't really known as some great TE destination, but Bennett was just as good there if not better than he was in NE.

Dwayne Allen was also coming off a reasonably decent 35-406 year in Indy prior to the Pats and of course he was completely useless for the Pats even when Gronk was out.

The same goes for Green Bay where pretty much every guy they've brought in to motivate Jermichael Finley since he washed out was better elsewhere than he was in Green Bay including Jared Cook who was better in Tennessee AND St Louis AND Oakland than he ever was in Green Bay.

So if New England and Green Bay are such great systems for any TE that lands there, why is every TE that lands there no better in those systems than they were elsewhere?

Dr. Dan said:

No clear cut path for sure, but I dont have a high opinion of any of those guys you listed. One could say MVS, ESB and Allison pose more of a hurdle for a WR in GB than Crowell and Jones on their teams. 

Houston and Atlanta rookie RBs I see as long game plays. When Freeman and Miller are gone, I honestly dont see Foreman being the lead guy, or Smith. Smith has a role, but that offense does best with 2 backs. I dont expect Foreman to ever be a long term fantasy asset. IMO best bet is to find someone who thinks he will be and get what you can. 

The reality of Houston's rb situation is they can grab someone now, or even next year with the solid rookie class. Even if Foreman is fully recovered, I think he missed his window and will be drafted over in 19 or 20

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I've seen a lot of people get excited for Atlanta RB but I don't really see it personally.

It's a coach that prefers RBBC and an already crowded backfield.  They don't really save much against the cap in cutting Freeman next offseason or even the one after so we're looking at the 2021 season before we get to a good probability that he's gone, and by that point Matt Ryan will be 36 and Julio Jones will likely be on his last legs if not done already so who knows if the offense will actually still be any good by then.

FreeBaGeL said:

To me the tell is similar to the one in GB (which I also think is overrated as a TE landing spot), and that is that basically everyone they had in there was as good or better elsewhere.

So for instance Martellus Bennett put up a solid 27-335-4 in 8 games where Gronk didn't play in 2016, which prorates out to 54-770-8.  That's a pretty good TE season....but no better than what he was already doing in 2013-2015 in Chicago (he even put up a 90-916-6 season there).  Chicago wasn't really known as some great TE destination, but Bennett was just as good there if not better than he was in NE.

Dwayne Allen was also coming off a reasonably decent 35-406 year in Indy prior to the Pats and of course he was completely useless for the Pats even when Gronk was out.

The same goes for Green Bay where pretty much every guy they've brought in to motivate Jermichael Finley since he washed out was better elsewhere than he was in Green Bay including Jared Cook who was better in Tennessee AND St Louis AND Oakland than he ever was in Green Bay.

So if New England and Green Bay are such great systems for any TE that lands there, why is every TE that lands there no better in those systems than they were elsewhere?

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I think the prospect of Hockenson or fant going there would be a lot different than Duane Allen in ne or an old jimmy graham in GB. A premium pick would signal they intend to use them. Seattle would be another spot with a shallow depth chart and elite qb. Maybe I’m higher on this te class than most, but I see it on par with the Howard/njoku/engram class. 

Snorkelson said:

I think the prospect of Hockenson or fant going there would be a lot different than Duane Allen in ne or an old jimmy graham in GB. A premium pick would signal they intend to use them. Seattle would be another spot with a shallow depth chart and elite qb. Maybe I’m higher on this te class than most, but I see it on par with the Howard/njoku/engram class. 

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I'm probably in the minority, but I actually don't think this is a good TE class, and thought last year's class was slightly better. It just sucked that Goedert got stuck behind Ertz, and 2 of the better prospects got stuck on the Ravens, a team that basically couldn't/didn't throw the ball.

Hockenson is the only TE in this class I truly feel good about. 

What about a hypothetical scenario where NE takes marquis brown pick 32? 

I think this is one of those things where it's very fluid and depends on draft capital invested. NE drafting a wr round 3 is not as interesting to me as round 1. 

So a list like this is really dependant on draft position as much as it is destination 

Dr. Dan said:

What about a hypothetical scenario where NE takes marquis brown pick 32? 

I think this is one of those things where it's very fluid and depends on draft capital invested. NE drafting a wr round 3 is not as interesting to me as round 1. 

So a list like this is really dependant on draft position as much as it is destination 

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If Hollywood ends up in NE, I think he'd go between 1.5-1.10 depending on how much you like Brown himself. No way he isn't a 1st rounder in that scenario.

That said, if the Patriots took a WR in round 2, that I like more than Brown, like JJAW or Isabella, I would likely still take them in that range even with less draft capital invested. 

travdogg said:

If Hollywood ends up in NE, I think he'd go between 1.5-1.10 depending on how much you like Brown himself. No way he isn't a 1st rounder in that scenario.

That said, if the Patriots took a WR in round 2, that I like more than Brown, like JJAW or Isabella, I would likely still take them in that range even with less draft capital invested. 

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I have to wonder if Brown might go 1.1 in that scenario. 

I've said this before, but it's real interesting how this group here and the consensus of where guys should go vastly differs from other forums. 

For instance, this forum is down on M Brown... others see him as a for sure top 5 pick even top 2. This group is generally down on Miles Sanders... hes RB1 or RB2 easy on other sites. People here are higher on Hockenson or Fant, at least in mocks, than they might be on other sites. 

Marquis Brown is one that stands out the most. I remember reading this exact scenario on another forum and of he was drafted round 1 by NE people have called him the 1.1 with confidence. 

I say this because I think it's important to recognize the real possibility that your draft goes sideways with a few of these players ranked low here at FBGForums going high 

I am expecting Hockenson to go 5. I think theres a real possibility I'm looking at Hakeem Butler at 7...

Dr. Dan said:

I have to wonder if Brown might go 1.1 in that scenario. 

I've said this before, but it's real interesting how this group here and the consensus of where guys should go vastly differs from other forums. 

For instance, this forum is down on M Brown... others see him as a for sure top 5 pick even top 2. This group is generally down on Miles Sanders... hes RB1 or RB2 easy on other sites. People here are higher on Hockenson or Fant, at least in mocks, than they might be on other sites. 

Marquis Brown is one that stands out the most. I remember reading this exact scenario on another forum and of he was drafted round 1 by NE people have called him the 1.1 with confidence. 

I say this because I think it's important to recognize the real possibility that your draft goes sideways with a few of these players ranked low here at FBGForums going high 

I am expecting Hockenson to go 5. I think theres a real possibility I'm looking at Hakeem Butler at 7...

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Hollywood has a very wide range of opinions for sure. I think its more of a person by person, or in many cases, league by league basis. One league I'm in, I basically punt RB, because everybody values them so highly, and try to win by being better everywhere else. In another league, its more balanced, and I tend to value RB's higher.

Also, I think people tend to fall in love with certain prospects. I was just reading the Kelvin Harmon thread, and was seeing comps to a better Moose Muhammed, or healthy Hakeem Nicks, and Harmon is a prospect I think very little of and probably have no interest in until around pick 20. So if he goes in round 1, I'm thrilled. Likewise, I love Arcega-Whiteside, and would argue him as a top-3 pick in the perfect situation, but a lot of people have him in the 20+ range, so I have to weigh how long could I wait on him. 

Personally, I'd be thrilled if Hockenson went top-5, unless its a major TE premium league, that is way higher than I would take him. Butler at 7 is a decent spot.

travdogg said:

Hollywood has a very wide range of opinions for sure. I think its more of a person by person, or in many cases, league by league basis. One league I'm in, I basically punt RB, because everybody values them so highly, and try to win by being better everywhere else. In another league, its more balanced, and I tend to value RB's higher.

Also, I think people tend to fall in love with certain prospects. I was just reading the Kelvin Harmon thread, and was seeing comps to a better Moose Muhammed, or healthy Hakeem Nicks, and Harmon is a prospect I think very little of and probably have no interest in until around pick 20. So if he goes in round 1, I'm thrilled. Likewise, I love Arcega-Whiteside, and would argue him as a top-3 pick in the perfect situation, but a lot of people have him in the 20+ range, so I have to weigh how long could I wait on him. 

Personally, I'd be thrilled if Hockenson went top-5, unless its a major TE premium league, that is way higher than I would take him. Butler at 7 is a decent spot.

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I'm staying out of the Harmon love fest because I found out in the Butler thread if you insult or even question a few posters' favorite rookies they get bent out of shape pretty bad. I agree, people latch on the certain players. I have my theories why. I have my favorites but I'm not really emotionally invested into all but maybe 2. 

I'd say I'm more in love with destinations than I am players

FreeBaGeL said:

To me the tell is similar to the one in GB (which I also think is overrated as a TE landing spot), and that is that basically everyone they had in there was as good or better elsewhere.

So for instance Martellus Bennett put up a solid 27-335-4 in 8 games where Gronk didn't play in 2016, which prorates out to 54-770-8.  That's a pretty good TE season....but no better than what he was already doing in 2013-2015 in Chicago (he even put up a 90-916-6 season there).  Chicago wasn't really known as some great TE destination, but Bennett was just as good there if not better than he was in NE.

Dwayne Allen was also coming off a reasonably decent 35-406 year in Indy prior to the Pats and of course he was completely useless for the Pats even when Gronk was out.

The same goes for Green Bay where pretty much every guy they've brought in to motivate Jermichael Finley since he washed out was better elsewhere than he was in Green Bay including Jared Cook who was better in Tennessee AND St Louis AND Oakland than he ever was in Green Bay.

So if New England and Green Bay are such great systems for any TE that lands there, why is every TE that lands there no better in those systems than they were elsewhere?

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I agree with what your saying as far as Green Bay. I think its Rodgers. He likes the big play. Not willing to check down at times even with guys wide open.

Now if the TE was that good? Of course he will use him. Right now they have Adam's and Kumerow? I think there is a lot of opportunity here with a good QB, whether that be a WR or TE.

As far as the Pat's I do think Bill has a long history of valuing the TE position highly. That's what would lead me to think they might draft one pretty high again and I do think 3 TE are 1st to 2nd round talent. So one might be there.

Dr. Dan said:

What about a hypothetical scenario where NE takes marquis brown pick 32? 

I think this is one of those things where it's very fluid and depends on draft capital invested. NE drafting a wr round 3 is not as interesting to me as round 1. 

So a list like this is really dependant on draft position as much as it is destination 

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I think it's best to assume that it's a top guy, then say something like

1.1 Texans rb - a good runner should be able to push Lamar Miller to the backup role pretty quickly. Watson opens up running lanes and hopkins and fuller occupy the safeties

1.2 Falcons rb - if they get someone who can run and catch, freeman may be expendable with that big contract. Might have to wait a year but strong offense. 

1.3 packers wr - rodgers has clearly been missing a second receiver. Adams is good, but it's not impossible for a top rookie to take over the wr1 or 1a job, especially if they have speed. Would love to see DK here.  

1.4 Oakland rb -i am a cautious believer in gruden and there's a huge void at rb on their depth chart, but i would really need to see a good player go here to get excited about it. Jacobs would almost certainly be 1.1 for me if he lands here.

Etc.