Erin Go Bragh
Footballguy
Going to save my thoughts until after my rookie drafts are done.
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WR Mecole Hardman, KC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Interseptopus
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
And that's from 2005-2014 when 1st round WRs were doing much better, cutting off right after the best 1st round WR group of all. 2015-2017 has weighted things even more towards the 2nd rounders with Michael Thomas, Juju, Adams, Boyd all coming from the 2nd round while the 1st has given us only Amari Cooper out of 13 picks, with Mike Williams/Corey Davis still somewhat undecided.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Going to go way, way too high. Would I have interest in Isaiah McKenzie in KC? Sure. Would I think he is able to replace Tyreek Hill? No. Probably the most baffling pick of this draft not from the Raiders or Giants. I would say the onus and value completely falls on Sammy Watkins. Tyreek Hill does not just have clones fall from the sky. In fact, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen another player like him. Barry Sanders at WR?
This is almost my takeaway exactly. There is no Tyreek Hill role in Kansas City's offense, that was 100% unique to Hill himself.
If people want to take Hardman at 1.2 or whatever, I'll be happy to let them. Honestly, he's not a 1st rounder for me at all. I thought he was a better returner than WR. Just because they traded up for him means nothing to me, the Chiefs have done nothing but make poor decisions all off season in my opinion.
Let's not forget that Mahomes is going to come down quite a bit this year. Historic seasons aren't followed up by historic seasons. He was already likely to lose a lot with Hill there, now without Hill, Mahomes might not be that big of an advantage at QB, though I can't really make an argument not to still have him #1 at the moment.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
The role is what made KC's offense hard to defend and so successful. It's likely one of the main reasons why we saw small, fast WRs drafted ahead of tall, less agile WRs. The NFL is a copy cat league.travdogg said:
I don't think Andy Reid is going to completely go away from this offensive strategy just because his current placeholder isn't on the team any longer or is suspended. He;s going to plug the next guy in and tailor the offense to fit that player in. Is he going to be the same as Hill? Of course not. But if he can produce 75% of what Hill does, he's a strong WR2 with WR1 upside. I don't see anyone else in this draft aside from 3 other WRs who have that upside (one is a top 3 pick). I suppose I could take one of them high, but they are undervalued right now and will likely be there late round 1.
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I think even the bolded is wishful thinking.
I think its a lot more likely that Sammy Watkins has a WR1 season if he can stay on the field. Watkins already has proven he's capable of it for brief stretches, and that was with Tyrod Taylor at QB, not the reigning, defending, undisputed NFL MVP.
I see it more likely to be bump Watkins(perhaps very highly) bump Kelce(slightly) bump Williams(slightly) and downgrade Mahomes a bit. I think its more likely Hardman puts up numbers more in line with what Chris Conley was doing.
In addition, Andy Reid's offense is notoriously complex. Hardman is going from basically the barest bones of passing game complexity at Georgia, to a complex by NFL standards offense. I wouldn't be surprised to see KC add a veteran WR before the season starts. Maybe not a guy I expect to be a fantasy starter, but somebody I could see splitting or perhaps blocking Hardman. Somebody like Crabtree, or Mike Wallace, or perhaps a trade for somebody who may have gotten buried by a draft pick, like Taywan Taylor, or Nelson Agholor.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
What do we think about Demarcus Robinson and De'Anthony Thomas......anything to see there?
I know this is the Mecole thread, but those two guys will be on the field until the rookie gets up to speed
I know this is the Mecole thread, but those two guys will be on the field until the rookie gets up to speed
BassNBrew
Footballguy
He likely will crush you over a decade in FF. Dude knows his stuff.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Well thankfully for my well being and wallet that I don’t have to play against him. I’ll sleep better tonight now.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Problem is this years 2nd rounders are like most years 1st. Maybe we should be looking at the 3rd rd WRs with year.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Raptors409
Footballguy
I don't know about this one. Tyreek Hill was a unicorn. Hardman should be a 3rd round pick for dynasty. Now he's going to be a 1st round based on speculations. Deferring to Warren Buffet on this one:
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
Faust
MVP
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I thought the same thing at the time of the pick. I was also really hoping they'd go Metcalf. I believe Mahomes can make people special for fantasy, though. Acknowledging that Hill was special in his own right.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Teams trade up to get their guy....i get it.....im not really sure how nfl people know what other teams are doing or if there is fake info put there....if there is game of thrones level moles/trickery/ backstabbing.....
Pettis was drafted 44th onto a team with only Goodwin and Garcon as competition and I believe his ADP last year was 2.06/2.07.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Bloom is in love has him at #2 in his post draft 100
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
and his shiny new QB was suppose to light things up for them as well (until the injury). Lot of parallels between Pettis and Hardman.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I'm going to buy wherever it's cheap enough, but not until late first round. These types turn into Phillip Dorsett more often than they are DeSean Jackson or Tyreek Hill.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I can see 7-12 being an option. might be a little high for some at 7 or 8 but I think given his potential that's fair. I've backed off of my original top 3 to 5 status. but I really like him
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not to disagree with the main point, but people hated Pettis more than they should have, largely because of a lack of pre-draft hype.
If Sutton had gone to SF in the same spot he would have been a high pick.
Not as high as top 5 typically but Michael Thomas, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Jordan Mathews were all in consideration right after that in many leagues as 2nd round WRs.
Jimmy G was an up and coming QB who was still trying to figure out the system and Pettis was inserting himself onto a depth chart that wasn’t good but also didn’t have put going targets. Mahomes is a reigning MVP, the second QB to ever break the 50 passing TD mark, and Hill will likely be gone and thus vacating massive targets and role.
You’re right, no clue why anyone would be more excited Hardman
This is exactly why I picked Pettis as the example. How much predraft hype was there for Mecole? At least Waldman was high on Pettis. Nobody was high on Hardman. If he slips into the first round... I'll be shocked and pleased at the same time.
Milkman
Footballguy
If anybody thinks this guy is going to replace Tyreek big lol @ them. Tyreek is so much faster out of his breaks than anybody in this draft. There's a chart running around Twitter that shows the speed difference........it's not close between these too.
We actually aren't going to see another Tyreek Hill anytime soon.
We actually aren't going to see another Tyreek Hill anytime soon.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Tyreek hill is unique....a unicorn
Mecole doesnt have to be tyreek to represent a good ff pick at say 1.08 on a lousy dynasty rookie draft
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Yep Tyreek Hill's don't grow on trees. But Mecole has landed in the perfect situation. Kind of reminds me of Forte when he was drafted by the Bears. A lot of people didn't really think he was an elite back but he landed in the perfect spot and boom!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He did not go until 2.05 in the draft I'm in right now and I passed at 2.04 for JJW-A with no regrets.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Everyone just assumes he steps in for Tyreke Hill as if Tyreke Hill was a system guy. I think he's more of a special teams guy - field stretcher. I think the biggest winner in the Hill saga is Watkins (and I'm not even a Watkins fan). I wouldn't be shocked if Demarcus Robinson sees more targets than Hardman.
Obviously his situation is tempting and the speed is there so he could break out but I agree on your Dorsett parallel.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
He probably is below Watkins in the pecking order though, assuming he can win the starting job across from Watkins as a rookie. That makes him most likely the 3rd or 4th option in the offense. It's a big pie, but I see his target share as starting at the bottom with the opportunity to earn more. It's not like the landing spot is so good he is an instant WR1.
He’s not going to step into Hill’s role outright but when something like Hill’s situation happens and a team with a lot of needs trades up to pick a WR in the 2nd that wasn’t in anyone’s radar, your interest should be piqued. I’d happily take him high to mid 2nd on potential and if I’m wrong then KC probably had a bad year because Kelce can’t do it all and Watkins is not playing a full 16
Edit: he is, at worst, looking to have the wr2 spot open to him on one of the top offenses in the league with a reigning MVP throwing. And the guy opposite of him will have his first healthy season when I sign my first NFL contract. People are going to be kicking themselves, the opportunity alone is tremendous
Edit: he is, at worst, looking to have the wr2 spot open to him on one of the top offenses in the league with a reigning MVP throwing. And the guy opposite of him will have his first healthy season when I sign my first NFL contract. People are going to be kicking themselves, the opportunity alone is tremendous
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To further add, if Hardman, a relative unknown, was taken in the 2nd by GB, everyone would be collectively creaming their pants. Because he is in KC, where and established player and role has been lost, people want to poo poo the player because he’s “not special” when compared to Hill. He doesn’t have to be Tyreek Hill to be amazing, he just needs to be good enough to let Mahomes make him amazing in whatever role they give him
kittenmittens
Footballguy
No they wouldn't. He'd be further from a starting role in GB. KC is a better destination.
Raptors409
Footballguy
Expounding on my previous thoughts. I think Hardman is a fine 2nd round prospect in rookie drafts. Maybe even late 2nd. The Quarterback situation is obviously nice but we all have an overinflated sense of how "good" Mahomes is due to the ridiculous plays that Tyreek Hill was making all year. The way Hill produced with Alex Smith tells me that Hill helped Mahomes more than Mahomes helped Hill. But that's not the point.
In my opinion, it was more of Hill's shiftiness and acceleration that made him such a threat. Hardman's speed is very alluring but how often have we been tempted by guys like this before? Stephen Hill, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Donnie Avery quickly come to mind as 4.2 - 4.3 forty time busts. I pulled up Tyreek Hill's college tape after watching Hardman. That same explosiveness just isn't there.
In a foot race, I'm all in on this Hardman guy. Once he hits that extra gear, it's over. But I'm worried about his ability to beat press coverage at the line and his route running. That's the difference between him and a guy like Hollywood Brown who went in the first round. The speed is about the same, Brown is just very fluid with his routes. Kansas City was able to give Tyreek Hill a clean release off the line (similar to what the Patriots do with Edelman) by moving him all around the formation.
The difference here, is that Tyreek Hill was a threat from all across the formation. You could give that guy legitimately carries as a runningback, you could send him over the middle from the slot, you could pop a quick screen for him, and most importantly you could send him deep with that world class speed. With Coleman, I think he's limited to go routes and screens right off the bat. From what I understand, it's pretty easy to defense a Wide Receiver with a limited route tree. If you know a guy is running a go route 80% of the time, there's no element of surprise there.
What made Tyreek Hill special was the ability to have him lineup in the backfield and force the opponents best cornerback to chase him across the field. It honestly got a bit comical at times last year.
"You can't catch me! You can't catch me!"
In my opinion, it was more of Hill's shiftiness and acceleration that made him such a threat. Hardman's speed is very alluring but how often have we been tempted by guys like this before? Stephen Hill, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Donnie Avery quickly come to mind as 4.2 - 4.3 forty time busts. I pulled up Tyreek Hill's college tape after watching Hardman. That same explosiveness just isn't there.
In a foot race, I'm all in on this Hardman guy. Once he hits that extra gear, it's over. But I'm worried about his ability to beat press coverage at the line and his route running. That's the difference between him and a guy like Hollywood Brown who went in the first round. The speed is about the same, Brown is just very fluid with his routes. Kansas City was able to give Tyreek Hill a clean release off the line (similar to what the Patriots do with Edelman) by moving him all around the formation.
The difference here, is that Tyreek Hill was a threat from all across the formation. You could give that guy legitimately carries as a runningback, you could send him over the middle from the slot, you could pop a quick screen for him, and most importantly you could send him deep with that world class speed. With Coleman, I think he's limited to go routes and screens right off the bat. From what I understand, it's pretty easy to defense a Wide Receiver with a limited route tree. If you know a guy is running a go route 80% of the time, there's no element of surprise there.
What made Tyreek Hill special was the ability to have him lineup in the backfield and force the opponents best cornerback to chase him across the field. It honestly got a bit comical at times last year.
"You can't catch me! You can't catch me!"
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
Im thinking about it this way for 2019 at least:
Chances he is the week 1 starter ahead of Robinson? Maybe 65 percent?
Chances he is the number 3 passing game option over the RBs? Maybe 50 percent?
Chances he surpasses Watkins in 2019 at the most targeted WR? Maybe 10 percent?
Chances he surpasses Kelce as the number 1 passing game target? 1 percent?
I think it's 50/50 that he is even the number 3 option in the pass game, and has very little chance of more target share than Watkins.
I guess I should include the high chance that Sammy gets hurt and yields opportunity in that way in my thinking somehow...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why would you possibly think this when KC is just as, if not an even more attractive landing spot for a WR?
Did people cream their pants over J’Mon Moore last season? No he was a mid-second round pick also.
Could Hardman light it up? He sure could, but I just felt everyone’s initial reaction (based largely on him being a Hill replacement) drove his price up to a place where he’s no longer worth the risk. I saw some people call him a top 5 pick.
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GB is a very good of a situation (but not as good KC at the moment) with a better track record of WR production over the years. I was using them as an example because unlike KC, there's no hang up there about an incoming player having to fill the particular and unique role that another player just vacated.
J'Mon Moore was a 4th round pick, Mecole Hardman was a trade up costing them a 2nd and a 5th. That's not an apples to apples comparison, Hardman should be worth more on draft capital alone.
I agree, no reason he should be a top 5 guy right now. We'll see what the off season does to drive him up but at a top 5 pick, hard pass for me with what we know right now. We've seen year after year people pick situation over talent and that's fine for late 1sts and seconds, top 5 is about talent.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Some random thoughts from a Chiefs fan on their WR situation (they are really thin actually):
1. Watkins will maybe play 10 games if the Chiefs are lucky
2. Robinson is the sleeper pick this year in my opinion. He and Mahomes had great rapport in preseason games in Mahomes first year when he sat on the bench.
3. Keep your eye on Byron Pringle. Sat on the practice squad all last year. There have been some rumblings about him.
4. Hardman gets maybe 3-4 touches a game this year. Expect screens and shallow crosses or slants. Maybe a deep ball here or there.
6. Reid knows offense. If they wanted this kid, he will produce. But his offense is predicated on receivers knowing a large route tree. Hard to pick up in year one.
1. Watkins will maybe play 10 games if the Chiefs are lucky
2. Robinson is the sleeper pick this year in my opinion. He and Mahomes had great rapport in preseason games in Mahomes first year when he sat on the bench.
3. Keep your eye on Byron Pringle. Sat on the practice squad all last year. There have been some rumblings about him.
4. Hardman gets maybe 3-4 touches a game this year. Expect screens and shallow crosses or slants. Maybe a deep ball here or there.
6. Reid knows offense. If they wanted this kid, he will produce. But his offense is predicated on receivers knowing a large route tree. Hard to pick up in year one.
