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Ack88

Post Day II/Pre Day III- Top 14 rookies

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Posted (edited)

Here's my attempt to sort the first two days of the NFL draft from a fantasy lens. Presume .5ppr scoring and partial keeper format, as I'm mirroring the settings from my main league. 14 teams. Start QB/2RB/2WR/TE/Flex/K/D.

This is a rough draft, my first pass so don't eat my lunch ;)

1.1- Josh Jacobs (OAK)- Talent and opportunity meet. 3 down RB from day #1. Surrounding cast is meh but should put up 1300 total yards and 8 TD as a rookie.

1.2 M. Sanders (PHI)- Will split time early but think he takes the job full time in year two. Eagles only locked into Howard for 1 year. Very nice skill set for Pederson's offense. More of a long term play that still carries year one value.

1.3 N. Harry (NE)- Plays and contributes from day one. Smart and fits the mold of a BB player. Tons of targets available in NE. Gordon is unlikely to maintain sobriety. Gronk has retired.

1.4- N. Hardman (KC)- People have every right to ding me here. Going for upside. Perfect fit for KC and can blaze. Playing w/ Mahomes is huge. Recognize upfront that there is high risk here.

1.5 -M. Brown (Bal)- If Jackson can develop, Hollywood has the skills. Might be better suited for TD heavy leagues.

1.6- TJ Hockenson (Det)- Rookie TE do not fare well but he is the perfect fit long term. Has a high ceiling that should see him be a VBD monster two or three years down the road. Betting on talent here.

1.7- DK Metcalf (Sea)- Skill set fits with his team. Seattle is still run heavy but Metcalf will be solid, but see him as needing a year or two to develop.

1.8-  D. Henderson (Rams)- Will play a role in the offense. If Gurley's knee balks, huge upside.

1.09- D. Samuel (SF)- Good player entering a good situation. Should be a meaningful contributor early on but don't see a particularly high ceiling.

1.10- K. Murray (AZ)- Running ability should put him in round #1. He's certainly no worse than Josh Allen who put up some great games with his legs in year one. Has a chance to be a legit FF QB #1 over time.

1.11- P. Campbell (Indy)- Playing with luck. Not much competition for targets. Candidate to move up my board.

1.12- JJ Arcega-Whiteside (PHI)- Fits what the Eagles do. Interesting to see what happens with Agholor. Should contribute immediately. Jeffrey not uber elite any longer.

1.13- N. Fant (DEN)- Excellent athlete who should develop. More of a longer term prospect but already poised to play immediately.

 

Edited by Ack88
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Nice to see I'm not the only one drinking the Hardman koolaid

 

I like your rankings but I think you have Metcalf too low, Hockenson too high, and you're missing Isabella 

 

Good list. Thanks for doing it

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

Nice to see I'm not the only one drinking the Hardman koolaid

 

I like your rankings but I think you have Metcalf too low, Hockenson too high, and you're missing Isabella 

 

Good list. Thanks for doing it

Thanks. Isabella is in my next group. Sorting through that now. Will post a top 25-30 after the draft has wrapped up. 

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Just now, Ack88 said:

Thanks. Isabella is in my next group. Sorting through that now. Will post a top 25-30 after the draft has wrapped up. 

I dont see Murray top 12 in a 1 qb league. But to each their own 

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As a Bronco fan, I believe Fant has a huge potential.  He has no one to beat out for job or playing time. A Kubiak offense with Flacco at QB is a great set up at TE. Elway has been searching for his new Sharpe for a while now. Fant certainly looks the part. 

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29 minutes ago, Polka King said:

I like Montgomery around 7-10

I think I'm an outlier on Montgomery. He just doesn't move the needle much for me. I see him as a second rounder in fantasy drafts- a between the tackles grinder that lacks NFL caliber big play ability. 

Have to concede I might be missing the boat but my gut tells me he is just mediocre. 

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Posted (edited)

I really hate the 1.04 in 1QB and the 1.05 in 2 QB...   I feel great about late 1st round upside. 

Superflex:

1. Murray

2. Jacobs

BIG DROP-OFF 

3. Harry

4. Haskins

BIG DROP-OFF

5. Sanders

6. Samuel

7. Campbell

8. Metcalf

9. Montgomery 

10. Hardman

11.  AJ Brown

12.  Marquise Brown

13.  JJAW

14.  Hock 

15.  Fant

16. Isabella

 

Edited by kittenmittens

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I dont see Murray top 12 in a 1 qb league. But to each their own 

Baker, Mahomes and Watson all fell to the 2nd round or later of all my rookie drafts.  Looking back I wish  I had taken 1 of them.  Got Mahomes in the 2nd round in one of them whiffed on the rest.  Also I play in two 16 team leagues QBs value a lot higher there.  Still in the 16 teamers all those guys went in the 2nd round.

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Seems like late 1st-early 2nd are the places to be this year. After the top couple, you can pretty much throw the next 10-12 guys in a hat and pick names. 

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personally if I had to draft today:

 

1 - Jacobs

2- Miles Sanders

3 - Montgomery

4 - N.Harry

5 - Metcalf

6 - Mecole

7 - AJ Brown

need to think about the players after this, might want to pull the trigger on a TE, Deebo? Isabella Parris Campbell....I do not lke where Hollywood brown ended up. 

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7 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Seems like late 1st-early 2nd are the places to be this year. After the top couple, you can pretty much throw the next 10-12 guys in a hat and pick names. 

Couldn't agree more.

Part of the reason I have Hockenson and Fant higher than most is because I see both as plus VBD guys for a long time. It might take two years, but I project both of those players as TE1s. The WR cluster is huge, with no clear cut pecking order. There are probably 8 guys who all have commensurate long term outcomes. If I'm in a rookie draft, give me the TE 1 in the middle of the first round and I can easily come back around in round 2 and get a WR that is essentially the same value as a WR picked in the middle of round one. 

When talent and opportunity are correlated to actual landing spots, the WR board has become more jumbled that it was pre-draft. I expect more of the same today. Put Riley Ridley in a good landing spot and suddenly he enters the conversation, too. This draft class has some nice depth but it makes for some high variances in valuations. 

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5 minutes ago, Ack88 said:

Couldn't agree more.

Part of the reason I have Hockenson and Fant higher than most is because I see both as plus VBD guys for a long time. It might take two years, but I project both of those players as TE1s. The WR cluster is huge, with no clear cut pecking order. There are probably 8 guys who all have commensurate long term outcomes. If I'm in a rookie draft, give me the TE 1 in the middle of the first round and I can easily come back around in round 2 and get a WR that is essentially the same value as a WR picked in the middle of round one. 

When talent and opportunity are correlated to actual landing spots, the WR board has become more jumbled that it was pre-draft. I expect more of the same today. Put Riley Ridley in a good landing spot and suddenly he enters the conversation, too. This draft class has some nice depth but it makes for some high variances in valuations. 

I like those 2 tight ends as well. We have three RBs who will be picked in the 1st, Jacobs, Sanders and Montgomery. That’s 5 guys. The next eight WRs are virtually interchangeable, M Brown, Harry, Samuel, AJ Brown, Hardman, Whiteside, Campbell, Metcalf. Some might even throw Isabella in there as well. You’re gonna get a guy at 13 who is just as good and basically a personal preference as the guy you pick at 4. 

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Posted (edited)

Dont follow college ball, get most of my info on these pages.  Really value the opinions/ranking I find in here.  So if we put the players into tiers, would it look something like this:

 

Tier 1

Jacobs

 

Tier 2 (no particular order)

Sanders

Montgomery

M. Brown

Hock

Fant

Harry

Hardman

Metcalf

Singletary

 

Tier 3 (any order)

Samuel

AJ Brown

Whiteside

Campbell

Butler

 

Tier 4

Boykin

Isabella

Murray

Henderson

 

 

Edited by ChuckLiddell

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3 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Dont follow college ball, get most of my info on these pages.  Really value the opinions/ranking I find in here.  So if we put the players into tiers, would it look something like this:

 

Tier 1

Jacobs

 

Tier 2 (no particular order)

Sanders

Montgomery

M. Brown

Hock

Fant

Harry

Hardman

Metcalf

 

Tier 3 (any order)

Samuel

AJ Brown

Whiteside

Campbell

 

Tier 4

Boykin

Isabella

Murray

Henderson

JJAW

 

You’ve got Whiteside down twice

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4 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

You’ve got Whiteside down twice

Fixed - thanks.

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Surprised that no Devin Singleterry in these lists. I really like Buffalo as a landing spot for him. Think he could be starting by end of the season

McLaurin going to Washington with Haskins should be a nice 2nd round consideration. 

for those in TE premium leagues really like all of Sternberger, Oliver, Warring and Knox ability and landing spots. All second round picks more than likely

In my superflex 14 IDP team league, Jones will be first rounder and Lock will go round 2

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Posted (edited)

Butler just put himself back in the convo as a potential tier 3 guy as the first pick of the 4th.

Edited by fruity pebbles
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1 minute ago, Crippler said:

Surprised that no Devin Singleterry in these lists. I really like Buffalo as a landing spot for him. Think he could be starting by end of the season

McLaurin going to Washington with Haskins should be a nice 2nd round consideration. 

for those in TE premium leagues really like all of Sternberger, Oliver, Warring and Knox ability and landing spots. All second round picks more than likely

In my superflex 14 IDP team league, Jones will be first rounder and Lock will go round 2

I think you're right about Singletary.  Crowded backfield right now, but the talent is old and the youth isnt all that talented.  I am going to add him to my list.

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2 hours ago, Polka King said:

I like Montgomery around 7-10

I like him sooner than that.  top 5

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11 minutes ago, Crippler said:

Surprised that no Devin Singleterry in these lists. I really like Buffalo as a landing spot for him. Think he could be starting by end of the season

I agree I think he's a great value pick this year.  Looks like he will be available in the 2nd round in a lot of leagues.

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14 minutes ago, Crippler said:

Surprised that no Devin Singleterry in these lists. I really like Buffalo as a landing spot for him. Think he could be starting by end of the season

McLaurin going to Washington with Haskins should be a nice 2nd round consideration. 

for those in TE premium leagues really like all of Sternberger, Oliver, Warring and Knox ability and landing spots. All second round picks more than likely

In my superflex 14 IDP team league, Jones will be first rounder and Lock will go round 2

:goodposting:  Shhhhhhhhhhhh.

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Is it me or does Justice Hill remind anyone of Ray Rice minus the issues?

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Posted (edited)

The way these landing spots are falling the 3rd round is going to be rich with talent and decent draft capital this year. 

One might even suggest that there is a bigger drop-off between pick 1 and pick 3 than there is between 1.05 and 3.05 in superflex TE premium leagues...  Crazy draft. 

Edited by kittenmittens

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Sorry guys, wrong thread, I might have a drinking problem:banned:

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

The way these landing spots are falling the 3rd round is going to be rich with talent and decent draft capital this year. 

It is unbelievable how closely valued these guys are. This will be a nice draft to build depth. Both Hill and Love likely have roles early but look to clearly be in RBBC dynamics.

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Riley Ridley is in the round #1 conversation. Trubisky is ascending, Nagy is running the show, and neither ARob, Miller, or Burton are clear cut alpha dogs.

The pathway to become the WR1 in a timing offense that emphasizes great route running is there. Ridley's greatest strength is route running. I think he could become a late first rounder in rookie drafts.

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2 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

1. Jacobs

2. Montgomery

3. Hardman

hardman is your wr1?

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6 minutes ago, Ack88 said:

Riley Ridley is in the round #1 conversation. Trubisky is ascending, Nagy is running the show, and neither ARob, Miller, or Burton are clear cut alpha dogs.

The pathway to become the WR1 in a timing offense that emphasizes great route running is there. Ridley's greatest strength is route running. I think he could become a late first rounder in rookie drafts.

bold take. I 100% disagree but I respect the position 

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8 minutes ago, Ack88 said:

Riley Ridley is in the round #1 conversation. Trubisky is ascending, Nagy is running the show, and neither ARob, Miller, or Burton are clear cut alpha dogs.

The pathway to become the WR1 in a timing offense that emphasizes great route running is there. Ridley's greatest strength is route running. I think he could become a late first rounder in rookie drafts.

Bold take for sure but I think if you target him in round 2 instead of round one you'll get him and pay less.

I'll give you this thought to add fuel to your fire. It's been said by a few, me included, that Chicago is trying to build an offense modeled after the Saints. I recall listening to a Move the Sticks podcast a few months ago. I believe the way the conversation unfolded was DJ was saying a scouting buddy of his gave was comping Ridley to Michael Thomas and Bucky said he has a similar comp. Obviously chances of him actually being second coming of Michael Thomas is slim but for a second round pick you shoot your shot and if he's 70% of him you win.

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3 hours ago, Ack88 said:

I think I'm an outlier on Montgomery. He just doesn't move the needle much for me. I see him as a second rounder in fantasy drafts- a between the tackles grinder that lacks NFL caliber big play ability. 

Have to concede I might be missing the boat but my gut tells me he is just mediocre. 

I agree with you.  He’s an average talent who will probably post a couple decent seasons before fading into irrelevance, similar to the guy he is replacing Jordan Howard 

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