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Darwin Thompson, Chiefs RB

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If you wanted to make a disingenuous argument, sure. 

How is that disingenuous? I’m being sincere with that comment. Huge Saints fan, didn’t know who Kamara was, had two veterans ahead of him.  Won people championships.

its all hypothetical until we get a few weeks in. 

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Dynasty wise I think patience could still pay off. I kind of felt he would need an injury to Williams to really produce anyway. But now he would need several dominoes to fall, and the tough thing in dynasty is having enough conviction on his talent to hold a roster spot (I plan to). This whole backfield may be difficult to capitalize on for this year.

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13 minutes ago, CKoz24 said:

How is that disingenuous? I’m being sincere with that comment. Huge Saints fan, didn’t know who Kamara was, had two veterans ahead of him.  Won people championships.

its all hypothetical until we get a few weeks in. 

Kamara was an early third round pick. Thompson a late sixth. Maybe you didn’t know who Kamara was but he was going between pick 1.06-1.10 in early rookie drafts while Thompson was going in the late third, early fourth. 

Plus with the hindsight of how good Kamara has been it is unrealistic to compare Thompson to him - obviously it’s not impossible but it’s improbable.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Kamara was an early third round pick. Thompson a late sixth. Maybe you didn’t know who Kamara was but he was going between pick 1.06-1.10 in early rookie drafts while Thompson was going in the late third, early fourth. 

Plus with the hindsight of how good Kamara has been it is unrealistic to compare Thompson to him - obviously it’s not impossible but it’s improbable.

I appreciate this comment as it helps give me a better perspective rather than attacking my character and calling me disingenuous. 

Not putting as much into where he was drafted as Waldman and others have been super crazy about this kid, but we can argue that piece many ways.

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41 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What denial? 

Advising people to hold on dropping Thompson isn’t denial. It’s resistance to knee-jerk roster moves. 

I find it somewhat remarkable that the same dude who advised picking up Dare on a terrible TB team while Ellington, Barber & RoJo were all still there is somehow also against rostering a seemingly more talented Thompson who plays for the best offense in football with just 2 backs ahead of him, one who’s old & one who can’t stay healthy. 

Small bench, I get it. 

The one league I have a Thompson share is a 28 man roster (IDP) so I’ve got room/time.

He’s still a lottery ticket - which is exactly why I drafted him. Context matters. DWill goes down, Thompson is immediately flex-worthy. 

McCoy fails to perform, pre-signing value is restored to both. 

Reid may love McCoy, but he’s not going to hurt his offense running him out there if he’s not effective. 

Wait & see by a week or 3 isn’t gonna hurt anyone. 

It wasn't directed at anyone in particular. I just find it entertaining. 

 

12 hours ago McCoy owners, and fantasy footballers alike, were looking at McCoy going to Houston as a great destination. 

Now he signs with KC, which unites him with the coach who made him a star, and suddenly it's like AP to New Orleans or Williams is bound to get hurt or it's nothing to see here because Thompson is the next Kamara. The fickleness of the fantasy community based on their self serving interest is entertaining. 

 

If I owned him in dynasty, sure I'd hold, it's dynasty. I wouldn't have interest in redraft unless my roster sizes were over 20. 

 

To address your specific reference to Dare- I had done my homework and it was clear he had beaten Ellington for a passing down role. Thompsons situation is much worse, albeit on a much better team to say the least

Edited by Dr. Dan
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6 minutes ago, CKoz24 said:

I appreciate this comment as it helps give me a better perspective rather than attacking my character and calling me disingenuous. 

That was not an attack on your character - it was a general statement only meaning that the argument would be false.

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Quote

To address your specific reference to Dare- I had done my homework and it was clear he had beaten Ellington for a passing down role. Thompsons situation is much worse, albeit on a much better team to say the least

 So you’re on record saying you would rather own Dare than Thompson? 

 Interesting. 

 Reportedly, Andy Reid is going to use all three of Williams, Thompson, and McCoy. 

 No one yet knows the mix. 

 I would advise Thompson owners on any size roster to hold until at least week one to see how this shakes out.  Thompson is one injury away from being arguably many times more valuable than Dare.

 As far as lottery tickets go,  i’d say Dare  is the more likely to hit immediately, but with a much much lower pay-off. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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8 minutes ago, CKoz24 said:

Not putting as much into where he was drafted as Waldman and others have been super crazy about this kid, but we can argue that piece many ways.

I like Matt Waldman a lot, professionally and to the small extent I know him personally but he doesn’t always get it right. I also thinks he takes up these long shot guys to help sell his product and I don’t blame him for that. I’m not saying he’s being disingenuous on his love of Thompson just that when he sees a guy he likes like that it makes it easier to stand on the table for him.

Thompson looked good in his limited preseason action there’s no denying that - this doesn’t close the book on him at all but he surely loses redraft value as does Williams. McCoy was paid well and he should get worked in quickly.

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I would advise Thompson owners on any size roster to hold until at least week one to see how this shakes out.  Thompson is one injury away from being arguably many times more valuable than Dare.

I've seen people dropping Darwin. I own him in a few leagues. I can't imagine someone on the wire right now I'd rather have, especially if there is talk of all three being used, and as you mentioned, one injury away from being even more productive.

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9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

 

 So you’re on record saying you would rather own Dare than Thompson? 

 

That's not what I said at all. You said you were surprised I was advocating for Dare but saying what I was saying about Thompson. I was explaining why

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21 minutes ago, CKoz24 said:

I appreciate this comment as it helps give me a better perspective rather than attacking my character and calling me disingenuous. 

Not putting as much into where he was drafted as Waldman and others have been super crazy about this kid, but we can argue that piece many ways.

Waldman also liked Jamaal Williams a lot

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I like Matt Waldman a lot, professionally and to the small extent I know him personally but he doesn’t always get it right. I also thinks he takes up these long shot guys to help sell his product and I don’t blame him for that. I’m not saying he’s being disingenuous on his love of Thompson just that when he sees a guy he likes like that it makes it easier to stand on the table for him.

Thompson looked good in his limited preseason action there’s no denying that - this doesn’t close the book on him at all but he surely loses redraft value as does Williams. McCoy was paid well and he should get worked in quickly.

Thanks! These comments are why I come on these boards! I’ve been listening to them a lot over the last three years and would agree with that.

as for my history, have gotten into fantasy football and football only over past 4-5 years and this community has really helped me grow tremendously! I’ve only done standard redraft as a Canuck it’s hard to find many people that have the time and effort to do this outside of hockey in my town.

my personal opinion is with Hyde and Stills as top WW options to keep him and Coutee on the bench and see where things go.  Both are my first cut loose options, where a week ago it would have been Metcalf and J.Hill.

 

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51 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

 

 So you’re on record saying you would rather own Dare than Thompson? 

 Interesting. 

 Reportedly, Andy Reid is going to use all three of Williams, Thompson, and McCoy. 

 No one yet knows the mix. 

 I would advise Thompson owners on any size roster to hold until at least week one to see how this shakes out.  Thompson is one injury away from being arguably many times more valuable than Dare.

 As far as lottery tickets go,  i’d say Dare  is the more likely to hit immediately, but with a much much lower pay-off. 

I had Thompson and Dare on my roster. I dropped Thompson this morning. 

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1 minute ago, shadyridr said:

I had Thompson and Dare on my roster. I dropped Thompson this morning. 

Each to their own. I think it’s premature. If DWill pops a hammy week 2, Thompson is likely the #1 grab off waivers that week in all formats. 

If Barber or Jones goes down in Tampa I don’t think Dare moves the needle in terms of value change. 

I’m more of a big picture guy when it comes to lottery ticket RBs on my bench. 

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My hopes of Darwin having major value this year have evaporated. 

But next year, I still like him. 

We liked Singletary despite being behind  McCoy.

We liked Thompson despite being behind Williams. 

I dont' think McCoy has a long career left ahead of him.  I don't think Williams is a starting running back

Thompson may not be the guy, but I still like his position

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Each to their own. I think it’s premature. If DWill pops a hammy week 2, Thompson is likely the #1 grab off waivers that week in all formats. 

If Barber or Jones goes down in Tampa I don’t think Dare moves the needle in terms of value change. 

I’m more of a big picture guy when it comes to lottery ticket RBs on my bench. 

All handcuffs require an injury to have value. 3rd stringers like Darwin need 2 injuries. Dare will be on the field week 1. Like I said 16 man rosters you can't roster everyone. Id rather roster the ones getting playing time. 

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In redraft, I can see dropping him with short benches.  In dynasty, the initial reaction was "ugggghhh", but having had time to digest it, I think it just reinforces the lack of confidence in Williams, which in time could be great for Darwin.  If they loved Williams as a feature back, I dont think this trade happens.  McCoy is what he is - a 31 year old RB with a lot of wear on the tires and fading stats.  Solid get for a 2019 super bowl run, but looking into the future, he wont be there, and the team does not seem to think Williams is the guy, so the job is likely available to Darwin, or someone not yet on the team in the near future.  The DWill truthers will likely see it differently and that fine, but thats how I see it.  

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15 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

All handcuffs require an injury to have value. 3rd stringers like Darwin need 2 injuries. Dare will be on the field week 1. Like I said 16 man rosters you can't roster everyone. Id rather roster the ones getting playing time. 

And I believe you’re 100% mistaken about the bolded part. It’s your assumption that he requires 2 injuries to have value.

Thompson had presumed flex-value before McCoy signed because Reid said he wanted to use a committee approach. The assumption then was it would be ~65-35 DWill/Thompson.

my assumption is that it’s likely now a 60/30/10 RBBC between McCoy, DWill & Thompson. Likely with DWill on the 60 side at first, but that may evolve. 

And if EITHER DWill or McCoy gets hurt OR McCoy underperforms, Thompson regains weekly flex value. 

I don’t see why it would take 2 injuries for Thompson to be valuable considering the following scenarios:

• DWill goes down - You think a 31 year old McCoy is getting 30 touches a game? That’s preposterous. 

• McCoy goes down - why would DWill be used more than the plan was to use he & Thompson before the McCoy signing? 

Seems pretty obvious it would only take 1 injury to vault Thompson back to relevance. I think it would be foolish to drop him yet. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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2 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

especially if there is talk of all three being used

Has there been?

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15 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

All handcuffs require an injury to have value. 3rd stringers like Darwin need 2 injuries. Dare will be on the field week 1. Like I said 16 man rosters you can't roster everyone. Id rather roster the ones getting playing time. 

wouldnt suprise me if Dare and Thompson had similar number of touches week 1

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Has there been?

Reid has said he wants to use all of his RBs. 

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1 minute ago, ChuckLiddell said:

In redraft, I can see dropping him with short benches.  In dynasty, the initial reaction was "ugggghhh", but having had time to digest it, I think it just reinforces the lack of confidence in Williams, which in time could be great for Darwin.  If they loved Williams as a feature back, I dont think this trade happens.  McCoy is what he is - a 31 year old RB with a lot of wear on the tires and fading stats.  Solid get for a 2019 super bowl run, but looking into the future, he wont be there, and the team does not seem to think Williams is the guy, so the job is likely available to Darwin, or someone not yet on the team in the near future.  The DWill truthers will likely see it differently and that fine, but thats how I see it.  

I love this logic!! Yes the McCoy pickup for KC makes sense for a few reasons:  

1. He played under Andy Reid...so he’s familiar with McCoy’s skill set. 

2. They like him better than what they had in Hyde. 

3. As you said, Reid must not love Williams in the long run. 

 

SO as a Thompson owner - I’m not panicking. This kid could be a ‘lottery ticket’ still. Nobody drafted him as their RB 1 or 2...everyone that drafted him is hoping he takes the job at some point. 

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2 minutes ago, joffer said:

wouldnt suprise me if Dare and Thompson had similar number of touches week 1

That’s not a bad bet. Depends on score/game flow. 

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Well ####.  

Thompson has no value unless Shady or Williams goes down.  

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19 minutes ago, jm192 said:

My hopes of Darwin having major value this year have evaporated. 

But next year, I still like him. 

We liked Singletary despite being behind  McCoy.

We liked Thompson despite being behind Williams. 

I dont' think McCoy has a long career left ahead of him.  I don't think Williams is a starting running back

Thompson may not be the guy, but I still like his position

By no means am I advocating for dropping Thompson in dynasty (I would hold) but the problem with this outlook is even assuming that McCoy is only in KC for one year and Damien Williams isn’t good enough to hold the starting job, you also have to worry about KC signing another free agent or drafting a RB highly next offseason. I know Thompson has got a lot of hype on these boards this offseason but right now all he is is a sixth round RB that’s now likely third string on his team. It’s far from a lock he ever gets a chance to be “the guy”.

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Reid has said he wants to use all of his RBs. 

That was an offhand comment mentioning a RBBC approach a few weeks back - and most importantly before they got McCoy. He also talked up Carlos Hyde quite a bit - and look where that lead. Offseason coach speak is not exactly a reliable source.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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Just now, phowler13 said:

Short bench. Drop Thompson for another lottery ticket. Justice Hill?

For a short bench I’d say yes. 

Justice should have flex value out of the gate, while you’d have to wait for Thompson. 

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25 minutes ago, zoonation said:

Well ####.  

Thompson has no value unless Shady or Williams goes down.  

but the reward part of the equation is much bigger on the KC offense.

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41 minutes ago, zoonation said:

Well ####.  

Thompson has no value unless Shady or Williams goes down.  

Agreed, he is drop city In re-drafts.

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2 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Agreed, he is drop city In re-drafts.

I just don’t understand why. 

He was a lottery ticket with possible value depending on usage before, who had a chance for significant value with injury to another RB. 

he’s a lottery ticket with significant value with injury to another RB still.

unless you’ve got a short bench, seems like a hold. :shrug:

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16 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Agreed, he is drop city In re-drafts.

I’m still holding for at least a few weeks to see how it all shakes out. KC is the best offense we have seen in a long time. Darwin passed the eye test with flying colors and was hand picked by Reid. I don’t care what round they drafted him in. Definitely can see him getting 6-8 touches a game still and he is definitely flex worthy with insane upside. The coaching staff loves this kid. Nothing but praise in regards to his work ethic and attitude. 

Edited by ahartig
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Definitely sticking. He excelled with his preseason opportunity. they will get him some touches.

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1 minute ago, joffer said:

Definitely sticking. He excelled with his preseason opportunity. they will get him some touches.

Nothing wrong with stashing a future dart throw, but I don't see him as any better of a stash than another 3rd string RB Raheem Mostert. 

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16 minutes ago, ahartig said:

I’m still holding for at least a few weeks to see how it all shakes out. KC is the best offense we have seen in a long time. Darwin passed the eye test with flying colors and was hand picked by Reid. I don’t care what round they drafted him in. Definitely can see him getting 6-8 touches a game still and he is definitely flex worthy with insane upside. The coaching staff loves this kid. Nothing but praise in regards to his work ethic and attitude. 

Hand picked? Aren't all draft picks hand picked?

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Nothing wrong with stashing a future dart throw, but I don't see him as any better of a stash than another 3rd string RB Raheem Mostert. 

KC vs SF. $10M lottery ticket vs $1M

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1 minute ago, joffer said:

KC vs SF. $10M lottery ticket vs $1M

Things can change in a 2 or 3 years and that's how long you're looking at stashing Thompson.  I can see both McCoy and / or Williams on the team for at least 2 more years.  Roster spots are valuable, but if you've got the will power to hold Thompson for 2 or 3 years, then good luck to you.

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Things can change in a 2 or 3 years and that's how long you're looking at stashing Thompson.  I can see both McCoy and / or Williams on the team for at least 2 more years.  Roster spots are valuable, but if you've got the will power to hold Thompson for 2 or 3 years, then good luck to you.

Sorry, thought we were talking redraft

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18 minutes ago, Tool said:

Hand picked? Aren't all draft picks hand picked?

My point being he isn’t a holdover from a previous regime.

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He was going in rounds 7-8 in redrafts a few days ago, no doubt a massive overpay in hindsight. As the #2 RB in KC I envisioned at least a Tarik Cohen rookie year payoff, with a higher ceiling. Similar system. Cohen was RB 28 in FFPC his rookie year but only had Jordan Howard ahead of him who is a completely different back. Now KC has 3 guys with similar skill sets, not sure where the rookie fits into it. Probably just a 3-4 touch a game guy at best unless injury. Still not sold on getting a full year out of Damien Williams so who knows how it shakes out. Will be interesting to see how Reid uses these guys. At this point I can't see Thompson getting getting close to Cohen's rookie year 36% snap count, and Cohen was only a value because he was picked so late in redraft that year.

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1 minute ago, ahartig said:

My point being he isn’t a holdover from a previous regime.

None of the four RBs on the roster is.

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Reid has said he wants to use all of his RBs. 

Just curious if he plans to use them all the way he used Charles, Hunt, Ware...by running them 5-6 times on the first series then forgetting he was allowed to call running plays until late in the 3rd quarter?

Or does he envision forgetting about a different one each quarter, which might actually be better for their fantasy production.

😛

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9 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Just curious if he plans to use them all the way he used Charles, Hunt, Ware...by running them 5-6 times on the first series then forgetting he was allowed to call running plays until late in the 3rd quarter?

Or does he envision forgetting about a different one each quarter, which might actually be better for their fantasy production.

😛

This may be the most accurate post ever made on these forums. :lol: 

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I definitely think that Thompson's value in redraft takes a huge hit, but dynasty not so much. I think that McCoy will get the bulk ~60% of the workload. I think that if he stays healthy 900yds rushing and 250yds receiving and 8tds are within reason. Unless he goes buck wild and there is no reason to get him off the field. In which case, you stumbled into a championship.

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29 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Things can change in a 2 or 3 years and that's how long you're looking at stashing Thompson.  I can see both McCoy and / or Williams on the team for at least 2 more years.  Roster spots are valuable, but if you've got the will power to hold Thompson for 2 or 3 years, then good luck to you.

Not seeing it this way myself.  McCoy is clearly in decline - He averaged 3.2 YPC on 161 carries last season.  Bufflo wasnt good, but that is horrid.  He is 31, so the decline is happening right when it is supposed to.  I dont think he or Williams is a threat next season.  If Williams was going to be the guy, McCoy probably would not have been signed - at least not for legit money, which he got.  The threat to Darwin in 2020 is probably someone not on the roster yet, which may give him a leg up if he puts some good film out there in 2019.

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In my redraft league I literally dropped him for a kicker.  Had no kicker and was agonizing over which upside player to drop.  He went from last on my list to first with the McCoy signing.  Barring injury DT will have a very minimal role this year behind williams and McCoy.  

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So glad my drafts are as late as possible!

Had my keeper draft on Sunday, when I picked Thompson in I think the 8th I said "I swear if this draft was yesterday this guy would've gone 5 rounds earlier". The big 3 RBs were drafted in round 1, and Darwin went after the likes of Mattison, Justice Hill, etc. I had already drafted Miles Sanders but couldn't pass him up.

This is a keeper league and we have deep benches, so of course mileage will vary there but I'm more than happy to stash him and see what happens.

Like someone else said, with RB stashes I'm looking for the big upside, and there ain't much bigger upside than possibly being the RB on the best offense in the NFL.

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On 9/1/2019 at 12:48 PM, Arodin said:

Just curious if he plans to use them all the way he used Charles, Hunt, Ware...by running them 5-6 times on the first series then forgetting he was allowed to call running plays until late in the 3rd quarter?

Or does he envision forgetting about a different one each quarter, which might actually be better for their fantasy production.

😛

SPEAK TRUTH TO POWER!!!!

Sincerely,

An oft-frustrated Kareem Hunt owner ("JUST HAND HIM THE DAMN BALL!!!!!!")

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Man I think everyone, including FBG, has soured way too much on him, the pendulum has swung too far into an overcorrection.

I remember Damien Williams getting dinged and McCoy is old, so I'd think more of a injury risk.   You want to talk about a second half league winner, this guy is worth a stash in my mind.  I believe in the talent and its the best situation in football.  

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