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Flying Elvis

Post-Draft IDP winners & losers

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Which rookies saw their value decreased by landing spot?

Which rookies saw their value increased by landing spot?

Which non-rookies saw their value decreased by draft choices?

Which non-rookies saw their value confirmed/increased by LACK of draft choices?

Anything that doesn't fit within those parameters? 

 

Rookies decreased:  Quinnen Williams / Josh Allen / Rashan Gary / Dexter Lawrence / Jeffery Simmons / Montez Sweat 

Rookies increased: well, the obvious ones, really. Bosa, Ferrell, the Devins, Oliver, Wilkins, Colier, Savage & Abram.

(not rehashing why on landing spot rookies... here's my post to rd 1)

Non-rookies is a bit tougher, but that's where we'll really find the value. Which guys are falling into a starting gig now that FA & draft weekend are done and no competition was brought in? 

Decreased: Deone Bucannon.. ouch. Bostic/Williams in PIT with Devin + Barron. Double ouch. (well, really, you shouldn't have been counting on Bostic, anyway.)

Increaed: Guys like Matt Milano (moderate value) or Josey Jewell (high value)

Who else ya got?

 

 

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Quinnen Williams will depend on designation.  If he's a DE he's toast but if he keeps DT he's got value in a DT-required league.

I like Mack Wilson to CLE.  Lots of potential for them to start letting those vets move on, save cap space, and/or pick up comp picks for them.  They already jettisoned Collins, Kirksey shouldn't last beyond 2019 with his contract status, and Schobert may end up on the wrong side of the cap spending spree.  They have to look forward to Garrett and Baker, they just added OBJ and Vernon, and they will try to keep Landry as long as he's producing, even if his ROI stinks.  That's all not even taking into account the OL or secondary.

Cameron Smith could see the same effect in MIN with Kendricks' cap number.

Gotta love the investment in Jahlani Tavai - I guy I knew nothing about, but an early 2nd after the Davis investment means they will put this guy on the field a lot.

Drue Tranquil has lots of hype/fluff/theoritical talent in front of him but very little actual production/competition with LAC. 

Devin Bush is an obvious winner but I am not sold on the talent translating to the NFL.

LJ Collier is a big winner.  I always wonder about guys from fringe schools like TCU but going in the 1st is a big vote of confidence and they just traded out their primary pass rusher so there are reps to be had if he's legit.

Lots of losers, this draft was brutal to EDGE.  Zach Allen goes from potential mid-1st rounder to the 3rd round and a 3-4 team.  Jaylon Ferguson 3-4.  Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, Zachaie Polite (one of my favorite under-the-radar guys), Winovich, De'andre Walker (also fell to 5th) - all to 3-4 or at best flex schemes that won't put the at DE pinning their ears back.

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On 4/29/2019 at 2:16 PM, Hankmoody said:

I like Mack Wilson to CLE.  Lots of potential for them to start letting those vets move on, save cap space, and/or pick up comp picks for them.  They already jettisoned Collins, Kirksey shouldn't last beyond 2019 with his contract status, and Schobert may end up on the wrong side of the cap spending spree.  They have to look forward to Garrett and Baker, they just added OBJ and Vernon, and they will try to keep Landry as long as he's producing, even if his ROI stinks.  That's all not even taking into account the OL or secondary.

Will revisit this at a later time but he fell for a couple of reasons.  Saben told him he needed another year and wasn't ready.  He's young, not fully physically developed,  didn't blow anyone away with his numbers or production really.  It looks like ST his rookie season but the positive thing in his direction is he can cover and should, in-time develop if he can make the team based on ST play which he should.  

I see potential but he got taken out of the oven a year too soon IMHO.  I want to wait a year on this one.

Takitaki channels the Tasmanian Devil playing full-speed and out of control with a ton of missed tackles.  He posted solid Combine numbers, got his personal life off-field issues under wraps.  He's got legit upside if he is coachable and I think he is. 

Takitaki is also not ready but he's the opposite of Mack in that he needs to tone it down and get under control where Wilson needs to show more.  I prefer Taki since he was given freedom as a heat seeking missile at Utah but with Steve Wilks he will be able to sit and learn to play within the system and I think those missed tackles will fade if he's not trying to play hero-ball and do everything.

I think Takitaki will see the field at least in sub packages his rookie and I anticipate a share-type workforce at LB this season for him in addition to ST work.

EDIT:  Good background story on Takitaki  

LINK >>>   How Browns draft pick Sione Takitaki found the person who helped save his football future

Edited by Bracie Smathers
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On 4/29/2019 at 2:16 PM, Hankmoody said:

(one of my favorite under-the-radar guys), Winovich

Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva

#Patriots rookie DE Chase Winovich has played only 114 snaps in 5 games, essentially the equivalent of a little under 2 full games. PFF has charted him with 5 sacks 0 penalties 8 QB hurries 1 punt block returned for TD

9:41 PM - 10 Oct 2019

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^ He's fun to watch but NE is not a great place to look for front 7 IDPs. They rotate too much up front and rarely have any player from the front 7 as a 100% snap count guy. Collins is killing it but is still generally at a 75% snap count (69% 72% 76% 100% 77% 88%), though Van Noy looks like he'll be close to 100 now that he's back in the rotation. 

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On 4/29/2019 at 7:16 PM, Hankmoody said:

Quinnen Williams will depend on designation.  If he's a DE he's toast but if he keeps DT he's got value in a DT-required league.

I like Mack Wilson to CLE.  Lots of potential for them to start letting those vets move on, save cap space, and/or pick up comp picks for them.  They already jettisoned Collins, Kirksey shouldn't last beyond 2019 with his contract status, and Schobert may end up on the wrong side of the cap spending spree.  They have to look forward to Garrett and Baker, they just added OBJ and Vernon, and they will try to keep Landry as long as he's producing, even if his ROI stinks.  That's all not even taking into account the OL or secondary.

Cameron Smith could see the same effect in MIN with Kendricks' cap number.

Gotta love the investment in Jahlani Tavai - I guy I knew nothing about, but an early 2nd after the Davis investment means they will put this guy on the field a lot.

Drue Tranquil has lots of hype/fluff/theoritical talent in front of him but very little actual production/competition with LAC. 

Devin Bush is an obvious winner but I am not sold on the talent translating to the NFL.

LJ Collier is a big winner.  I always wonder about guys from fringe schools like TCU but going in the 1st is a big vote of confidence and they just traded out their primary pass rusher so there are reps to be had if he's legit.

Lots of losers, this draft was brutal to EDGE.  Zach Allen goes from potential mid-1st rounder to the 3rd round and a 3-4 team.  Jaylon Ferguson 3-4.  Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, Zachaie Polite (one of my favorite under-the-radar guys), Winovich, De'andre Walker (also fell to 5th) - all to 3-4 or at best flex schemes that won't put the at DE pinning their ears back.

So he didnt last and has been released. Raiders, Packers and Ravens already in play for him.

Got to think he could  be a stats beast if he goes to the Raiders. If he doesnt then any ILB they take is getting serious looks from me in rookie drafts from 2nd round - no matter where they take him.

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