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I'm working through my devy top 100 article, which will be out in mid-May but wanted to put out a Top 50 here on the message board for those with drafts this week. 

I'm also hoping for some feedback and discussion so I can make the final top 100 as good as possible. So please let me know if you think anything looks off or you want to make the case for certain players to be higher or lower.

Here is my preliminary top 50 for PPR, Superflex leagues:

 

 

image.thumb.png.1ceb6e38a8a202b4ffbf3447137cf24e.png

1..D'Andre Swift..RB..Georgia..2020

2..Travis Etienne..RB..Clemson..2020

3..Jerry Jeudy..WR..Alabama..2020

4..Trevor Lawrence..QB..Clemson..2021

5..Justyn Ross..WR..Clemson..2021

6..Tua Tagovailoa..QB..Alabama..2020

7..Henry Ruggs..WR..Alabama..2020

8..Cam Akers..RB..Florida St...2020

9..Tee Higgins..WR..Clemson..2020

10..Justin Herbert..QB..Oregon..2020

11..Laviska Shenault..WR..Colorado..2020

12..Jonathan Taylor..RB..Wisconsin..2020

13..Eno Benjamin..RB..Arizona St...2020

14..J.K. Dobbins..RB..Ohio St...2020

15..CeeDee Lamb..WR..Oklahoma..2020

16..Keaontay Ingram ..RB..Texas..2021

17..Rondale Moore..WR..Purdue..2021

18..Jaylen Waddle..WR..Alabama..2021

19..Garrett Wilson..WR..Texas..2022

20..Najee Harris..RB..Alabama..2020

21..Trey Sanders..RB..Alabama..2022

22..Seth Williams..WR..Auburn..2021

23..Justin Fields..QB..Ohio St...2021

24..Lyn-J Dixon..RB..Clemson..2021

25..Jeremiah Holloman..WR..Georgia..2020

26..Chuba Hubbard..RB..Oklahoma St...2020

27..Joe Ngata..WR..Clemson..2022

28..Frank Ladson..RB..Clemson..2022

29..Kylin Hill..RB..Mississippi St...2020

30..Jafar Armstrong..RB..Notre Dame ..2020

31..Zamir White..RB..Georgia..2021

32..Albert Okwuegbunam..TE..Missouri..2020

33..Jake Fromm..QB..Georgia..2020

34..Trey Sermon..RB..Oklahoma..2020

35..Tyler Johnson..WR..Minnesota..2020

36..DeVonta Smith..WR..Alabama..2020

37..Bryan Edwards..WR..South Carolina..2020

38..Amon-Ra St. Brown..WR..USC..2021

39..Colby Parkinson..TE..Stanford..2020

40..Justin Jefferson..WR ..LSU..2020

41..K.J. Hill..WR..Ohio St...2020

42..Jadon Haselwood..WR..Oklahoma..2022

43..Tylan Wallace..WR..Oklahoma St...2020

44..Ja'Marr Chase..WR..LSU..2021

45..Terrace Marshall..WR..LSU..2021

46..John Emery..RB..LSU..2022

47..JaTarvious Whitlow..RB..Auburn..2020

48..Collin Johnson..WR..Texas  ..2020

49..JT Daniels..QB..USC..2021

50..Chris Olave..WR..Ohio St...2021

 

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This is fantastic. I might move Shenault up a few spots but it's really hard to argue with your top 15 here.  Nice work. 

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

This is fantastic. I might move Shenault up a few spots but it's really hard to argue with your top 15 here.  Nice work. 

Thanks! 

Shenault is really hard for me to get a bead on because his game is so unique. Reminds me a lot of Cordarrelle Patterson but with more polish as a WR. 

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Just realized I left Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU) off this list. I currently have him slotted in at #18 but accidentally filtered him out on this spreadsheet. 

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I’m no expert but I would move up Lamb into the top 5 and drop J. Taylor down a dozen spots or so. Also I know he’s a little small but Etienne is my #1.

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3 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I’m no expert but I would move up Lamb into the top 5 and drop J. Taylor down a dozen spots or so. Also I know he’s a little small but Etienne is my #1.

On Etienne, I'm personally not worried about his size. I also like him as a runner better than Swift and think he's a safer bet to be a first-round pick.

The thing that pushed Swift past him a little bit for me is that Swift has the upside to be an 80+ catch guy in the NFL like McCaffrey, Barkley, Kamara, etc. From what I've seen so far, I don't think Etienne does. 

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3 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I’m no expert but I would move up Lamb into the top 5 and drop J. Taylor down a dozen spots or so. Also I know he’s a little small but Etienne is my #1.

I thought I might have to defend having Taylor too low, wasn't expecting the opposite, lol. I have him ranked in a spot where I know I won't be landing him in any devy drafts, so we're mostly on the same page.

He is tough for me because he looks like a 2-down back and I'm not sure how much NFL teams value guys like that these days. On the other hand, he is a heck of a runner so some team should find a way to use him. 

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3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Rondale Moore needs to go way up.

I haven't updated this list since the 2019 draft and, based on the way it played out, you are right about this. Will probably end up having him ahead of Higgins.

Seeing where Marquise Brown, Hardman, Isabella, etc. went compared to Metcalf, Butler, Harmon. It is clear the NFL values speed much more than size right now, which will boost guys like Moore, Lamb, Reagor, Waddle, and Holloman.

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Posted (edited)

I recently just drafted Trevor Lawrence ahead of Jerry Juedy.  Unconventional to need to wait a year longer and at the QB position over WR. But reality is Lawrence is not your normal QB prospect.  He’s as close to flawless as it comes and once on your squad will be a plug and play FF centerpiece for 10 years.   Even his hair is can’t miss. 

Edited by offdee
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Posted (edited)

never mind....coach question.

 

Edited by Dragon1952

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49 minutes ago, offdee said:

I recently just drafted Trevor Lawrence ahead of Jerry Juedy.  Unconventional to need to wait a year longer and at the QB position over WR. But reality is Lawrence is not your normal QB prospect.  He’s as close to flawless as it comes and once on your squad will be a plug and play FF centerpiece for 10 years.   Even his hair is can’t miss. 

Those two are really close for me and it probably comes down to team need and league specifics. I am part way through a 14-team Superflex draft that is mixed rookie/devys. Lawrence went #2 overall, behind Kyler Murray but ahead of Etienne and Jeudy. 

Lawrence looks like as close of a lock as possible to be the 1.01 as any player can be two years in advance. Jeudy looks like a near lock to be a top-10 pick next year. 

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I would have Collin Johnson higher. And favor adding Lorenzo Lingard, Salvon Ahmed, Tyler Vaughns, and Kennedy Brooks over some of the incoming freshman. Have seen too many highly touted 5 star recruits not amount to anything in college. Two  recent WR's come to mind, Michigan's Peoples Jones and Penn State's Justin Shorter.

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1 hour ago, Dawg Pound 69 said:

I would have Collin Johnson higher. And favor adding Lorenzo Lingard, Salvon Ahmed, Tyler Vaughns, and Kennedy Brooks over some of the incoming freshman. Have seen too many highly touted 5 star recruits not amount to anything in college. Two  recent WR's come to mind, Michigan's Peoples Jones and Penn State's Justin Shorter.

5 star WRs do nothing for me, but RB is a different story. 

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8 hours ago, Dan Hindery said:

Those two are really close for me and it probably comes down to team need and league specifics. I am part way through a 14-team Superflex draft that is mixed rookie/devys. Lawrence went #2 overall, behind Kyler Murray but ahead of Etienne and Jeudy. 

Lawrence looks like as close of a lock as possible to be the 1.01 as any player can be two years in advance. Jeudy looks like a near lock to be a top-10 pick next year. 

 

9 hours ago, Dan Hindery said:

I haven't updated this list since the 2019 draft and, based on the way it played out, you are right about this. Will probably end up having him ahead of Higgins.

Seeing where Marquise Brown, Hardman, Isabella, etc. went compared to Metcalf, Butler, Harmon. It is clear the NFL values speed much more than size right now, which will boost guys like Moore, Lamb, Reagor, Waddle, and Holloman.

Honestly sometimes I think this a action reaction type of thing.  2014 draft had a lot of big WR's.  League started drafting bigger DB's.  Now it is the speed guys.  League will likely draft faster DB's.  I think that big or small talent and situation with the qb's is the key to success.  Tall guys don't shrink but speed guys normally lose speed later on in their career.  I think we are in between waves with the WRs...

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Wow that's the lowest I have seen Bryan Edwards.  He was top 5 and #3 in a lot of rankings before the season started behind Harry and Akers.  I was happy he went back to school and think he can really improve his positioning and draft stock with Deebo gone this year.  I still really like him.   

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14 hours ago, NightStalkers said:

 

Honestly sometimes I think this a action reaction type of thing.  2014 draft had a lot of big WR's.  League started drafting bigger DB's.  Now it is the speed guys.  League will likely draft faster DB's.  I think that big or small talent and situation with the qb's is the key to success.  Tall guys don't shrink but speed guys normally lose speed later on in their career.  I think we are in between waves with the WRs...

 

 

14 hours ago, Heep said:

Wow that's the lowest I have seen Bryan Edwards.  He was top 5 and #3 in a lot of rankings before the season started behind Harry and Akers.  I was happy he went back to school and think he can really improve his positioning and draft stock with Deebo gone this year.  I still really like him.   

In response to both of these posts...does Kelvin Harmon falling to the 6th round not give you a little bit of pause on somebody like Bryan Edwards? 

I know every prospect is different and these two aren't identical, but when I'm personally stacking my draft board I am trying to think in probabilities and look at patterns. To me, there's a decent chance that the NFL won't be as high on Edwards as the devy community is because he has some similarities to hyped devy guys that fell in the draft. On the other hand, I think the NFL is going to love somebody like Henry Ruggs and his 4.3 speed. That's part of why I'm higher on Ruggs than consensus (and have already taken him in a few early devy drafts), while I probably won't end up with any shares of Edwards. 

Not to say I don't like Edwards at all, I could definitely see him going Day 2 next year. I just like the risk/reward combination more with other prospects.

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My reaction was about the preference for speed/quickness over height.  Neither is really the key in some respects.  NFL goes thru copy cat phases.  Seattle had success defending the big WR with big CBs.  I think it is an overall talent thing.  Look at John Ross if it was all about speed no one is faster.  It is talent to gain separation and ability to work with the qb's that makes a difference.  Look at JuJu he wasn't a burner.  I think the 2019 class may be more known for the TE talent that affects the NFL defenses more than the other positions, as there isn't too many quality TE's that are more like Gronk and Kelce that actually force physical mismatches and there may be some in this class.  Overall your watching for what the league likes is very astute but my point is that DC's in the league are always in reaction mode to what is hurting them at the time....

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21 hours ago, Dawg Pound 69 said:

I would have Collin Johnson higher. And favor adding Lorenzo Lingard, Salvon Ahmed, Tyler Vaughns, and Kennedy Brooks over some of the incoming freshman. Have seen too many highly touted 5 star recruits not amount to anything in college. Two  recent WR's come to mind, Michigan's Peoples Jones and Penn State's Justin Shorter.

Johnson is another guy who seems to go against the trend of what NFL teams are looking for. Guys who win with size ahead of speed, quickness, and separation don't seem to be in high demand. Was also interesting to see Lil'Jordan Humphrey go undrafted after having a more productive season than Johnson. 

The two difference's I'd point out with the freshman WRs and somebody like Shorter are:

1. It was generally considered to be an extremely strong WR class, the best in quite a few years.

2. Most of these freshman WRs ranked highly were early enrollees and proved themselves to some extent in the spring. Ladson and Ngata both put up over 100 receiving yards in the Clemson spring game and have been getting rave reviews. Same with Garrett Wilson at Ohio State, who has reportedly been making a ton of plays in practice and had a sweet touchdown in the spring game. 

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On 5/2/2019 at 8:48 AM, Dan Hindery said:

19..Garrett Wilson..WR..Texas..2022

 

um...

Lawrence has to be a runaway #1 on that list if it's SF.  Ross looks the part but I wouldn't rank him in the top 10 yet.  Lamb needs to be higher.  Fields needs to be a lot higher - maybe top 5. 

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Posted (edited)

Here is a link to a Devy draft just starting. 

Zealots Dev 1

Devy players already taken before draft started:
1. Collin Johnson
2. Najee Harris
3. Jerry Jeudy
4. D'Andre Swift
5. Jacob Copeland
6. Bryan Edwards
7. Donovan Peoples-Jones
8. Demetris Robertson
9. Tavien Feaster
10. Zamir White
11. Tyrie Cleveland
12. Stephen Carr
13. Jhamon Ausbon
14. Tee Higgins
15. Michael Pittman
16. Cam Akers
17. Jonathan Taylor
18. Tamorrion Terry
19. J.K. Dobbins
20. Amon-Ra St. Brown
21. Ahmmon Richards

 

Previous Devy players added to active rosters this season:
1. Damarea Crockett
2. David Montgomery
3. Kelvin Harmon
4. Parris Campbell
5. Noah Fant
6. L.J. Scott
7. D.K. Metcalf
8. Myles Gaskin
9. A.J. Brown
10. Alize Mack
11. Rodney Anderson
12. Damien Harris
13. Elijah Holyfield
14. Miles Sanders
15. Justice Hill
16. Bryce Love
17. Trenton Irwin
18. N'Keal Harry
 

Edited by krsone21
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16 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

um...

Lawrence has to be a runaway #1 on that list if it's SF.  Ross looks the part but I wouldn't rank him in the top 10 yet.  Lamb needs to be higher.  Fields needs to be a lot higher - maybe top 5. 

Let's talk through this a little bit because I don't think the Lawrence at #1 is crazy at all (though I don't think it's anywhere near a runaway #1). But positional value is tough and I can make the case either way.

There are different sources on dynasty ADP, but here's what I have for the ADP of top RBs and QBs are currently going:

1. Saquon Barkley

2. Patrick Mahomes

3. Christian McCaffrey

4. Ezekiel Elliott

5. Alvin Kamara

11. Todd Gurley

12. Andrew Luck

13. Joe Mixon

14. Baker Mayfield

15. Melvin Gordon

16. Nick Chubb

17. Deshaun Watson

18. James Conner

19. Dalvin Cook

21. Le'Veon Bell

25. David Johnson

 

In the top 25 overall right now, there are 12 RBs and only 4 QBs. So why does the #1 QB prospect (who is 2 years away) have to be ranked ahead of the #1 RB prospect (who is 1 year away)?

 

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The um was about listing Garrett as being from Texas.  He's a Buckeye.

Regarding Lawrence, he's a runaway #1 for me because he's got the highest likelhood of blowing the roof off the position.  Swift, while a great prospect and certainly possible to become elite, still has a lot of things that can get in the way.  Lawrence being a QB has no obstacles.  He's going to go #1 overall, he's going to have a team stack help all around him,  he's virtually injury-proof - when's the last time a QB had a truly career-ending injury when he had any amount of talent left? - and most importantly he just looked like a man among boys as an 18 year old against top level division I talent.  Not only that, but he's got a far higher confidence score too - the likelihood of putting up QB1 numbers and the positional advantage he can offer blows the roof off anyone else not named Mahomes.  I would take him at QB5 today in a startup and only that low because Baker and Watson are in some pretty peachy situations and Lawrence still may end up with a Jeff Fisher harbinger.

All this from a QB hater.  I am the guy that trades down from Baker to Rivers in order to get a future pick.  I have been rolling with guys like Cousins and Big Ben for years because they are the bargain priced guys, eschewing chances at Luck and Rodgers because "they cost too much".  I am not at all a fan of SF format because it causes a massive over-correction to the S/D problem the QB position carries, and because of that I I can't see not going all in on Lawrence.

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4 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

The um was about listing Garrett as being from Texas.  He's a Buckeye.

Regarding Lawrence, he's a runaway #1 for me because he's got the highest likelhood of blowing the roof off the position.  Swift, while a great prospect and certainly possible to become elite, still has a lot of things that can get in the way.  Lawrence being a QB has no obstacles.  He's going to go #1 overall, he's going to have a team stack help all around him,  he's virtually injury-proof - when's the last time a QB had a truly career-ending injury when he had any amount of talent left? - and most importantly he just looked like a man among boys as an 18 year old against top level division I talent.  Not only that, but he's got a far higher confidence score too - the likelihood of putting up QB1 numbers and the positional advantage he can offer blows the roof off anyone else not named Mahomes.  I would take him at QB5 today in a startup and only that low because Baker and Watson are in some pretty peachy situations and Lawrence still may end up with a Jeff Fisher harbinger.

All this from a QB hater.  I am the guy that trades down from Baker to Rivers in order to get a future pick.  I have been rolling with guys like Cousins and Big Ben for years because they are the bargain priced guys, eschewing chances at Luck and Rodgers because "they cost too much".  I am not at all a fan of SF format because it causes a massive over-correction to the S/D problem the QB position carries, and because of that I I can't see not going all in on Lawrence.

Solid take. I can see it either way and kind of depends on the situation and how your league values QBs. I'd take Kyler Murray ahead of Lawrence. You've also got young guys like Goff who are talented and in ideal spots, so I don't think I'd rate him top 5 at this point but I could see top 10.

Also, I'm a huge OSU fan and grad so Wilson's listing was just a non-updated cell in my spreadsheet from when I had the top prospects listed by state. Correction made on that. I like that you're so high on Justin Fields and hope you're right about how good he will be. I'm pretty excited for him but he looked kind of shaky in the spring game so I'm ranking him somewhat conservatively for now. I can't rank him top 5 ahead of somebody like Justyn Ross who showed so much as a true frosh. 

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On 5/2/2019 at 4:26 PM, Dawg Pound 69 said:

I would have Collin Johnson higher. And favor adding Lorenzo Lingard, Salvon Ahmed, Tyler Vaughns, and Kennedy Brooks over some of the incoming freshman. Have seen too many highly touted 5 star recruits not amount to anything in college. Two  recent WR's come to mind, Michigan's Peoples Jones and Penn State's Justin Shorter.

Peoples-Jones put up 47/612/8 as a true sophomore on a team running a Stone Age offense.  He is 6’2”, 210 and will likely run in the 4.4’s or low 4.5’s. If healthy this season he will dominate in Josh Gattis’ offense.  Word though is that he has a lingering injury that may keep him out of fall camp and put him behind a bit this year.  

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Any Devy Tua owners shopping him hard?  He could have like 10 kids by next year and that might make NFL teams a bit nervous.  

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Huh?  Teams will be nervous about him not wrapping the rascal?  Or is getting laid 10 times too many for a star college football player?

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I'm pretty high on Lamb. Seems to have great awareness and hands with good athleticism. Reminds me a bit of Isaac Bruce, with the caveat of Bruce being a monster on the deep balls and Lamb not having a ton of opportunities to track the ball in the air thus far.

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Lamb is definitely up there in my book too. That dude is going places if he continues on the right path and stays injury free, as much as possible at least.

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Dan’s completed top 100 devy players is up on fbg.  As always a great read

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