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Trumps Approval Rating Now Higher Than Obama (1 Viewer)

John Blutarsky

Footballguy
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2019/05/05/say-what-nbcs-chuck-todd-gives-president-trump-credit-for-record-unemployment-numbers-n2545865

What's interesting to look at though, is President Trump's approval ratings verses President Barack Obama's approval ratings.

When Obama took office in January 2009 his approval rating was 67 percent. In April 2015 – at roughly the same time Trump is currently at during his presidency – Obama's approval rating dropped to 45 percent. 

President Trump's approval rating has actually gone up. When he took office in January 2017 his approval rating was 49 percent. It now sits 56 percent. 

What does this show? Americans have faith in the Trump economy. They're seeing more money in their paychecks thanks to Trump's tax cuts. They're feeling good about the direction things are headed. More people are employed and more money is in people's pockets instead of in the government's bank account. 

 
Man, you guys just can't get Obama out of your heads. The obsession is incredible. The election was 8 years ago but you keep bringing it up again and again and again like you think you can overturn it or something. Give it up, it's over.

 
https://www.easttexasmatters.com/news/top-stories/trump-approval-rating-up-to-46-percent-highest-in-nearly-a-year/1983273469

This shows a lower number but

 However, his current approval rating is now higher than President Obama's at the same time in his first term.
Not according to the graph on the 538 page that @The Commish linked. What that shows is Trump has stayed pretty consistent in the 42-45% approval range and Obama went from 61% at inauguration to 45-50% around day 837.

So what does that show? Not sure. Would have to look into those numbers more.

 
Man, you guys just can't get Obama out of your heads. The obsession is incredible. The election was 8 years ago but you keep bringing it up again and again and again like you think you can overturn it or something. Give it up, it's over.
Go look at my posts and tell me how often I have even mentioned Obama. Typical response from you.

 
I think one thing you can take from these polls - Trump's approval and disapproval ratings have been much more consistent than past Presidents. I have two thoughts on that:

  • I'd like to see how those have shifted in those categories. Has there been change between VERY approve and slightly approve? Or Very disapprove and slightly disapprove?
  • I think this is a symptom of how polarized we are right now. Trump is very polarizing and has a fairly large base of whatever percent that will approve of everything he does. And he also has another large group that opposes him on everything.
 
I think one thing you can take from these polls - Trump's approval and disapproval ratings have been much more consistent than past Presidents. I have two thoughts on that:

  • I'd like to see how those have shifted in those categories. Has there been change between VERY approve and slightly approve? Or Very disapprove and slightly disapprove?
  • I think this is a symptom of how polarized we are right now. Trump is very polarizing and has a fairly large base of whatever percent that will approve of everything he does. And he also has another large group that opposes him on everything.
Exact same thing stuck out to me.  Looking at him compared to any of them, it's pretty darn consistent.  Unfortunately for him, it's consistently bad.  It's almost like people have seen him for what he is from the beginning.

 
Where does it say that? I took it as overall approval and the economy is a driving factor with his approval ratings going up.
Amigo, look at your link.

This statement - "President Trump's approval rating has actually gone up. When he took office in January 2017 his approval rating was 49 percent. It now sits 56 percent." - has a hyperlink to this:

Q2. (A2) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling (INSERT ITEM)? -

The economy
-> 56%.

 
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It doesn't matter if Trump's approval has been higher than Obama's a dozen times in his first 28 months, he still hasn't cracked 50%!!!!!zzzzz11111benghazi!!!!!!

 
Where does it say that? I took it as overall approval and the economy is a driving factor with his approval ratings going up.
Every poll with the sole exception of the Rassmussen daily tracking poll shows the same thing: 42-45% approval, 51-54% disapproval. This hasn't moved in over 2 years.

The significant number is the 51-54% disapproval. He will not be re-elected with that number.

 
https://www.easttexasmatters.com/news/top-stories/trump-approval-rating-up-to-46-percent-highest-in-nearly-a-year/1983273469

This shows a lower number but

 However, his current approval rating is now higher than President Obama's at the same time in his first term.
Ok about this one, it's Gallup. The last I saw on this was Trump at 46%, which was his highest. But I'll just point out a coupl things.

This is the current poll per the link and I think this is right:

Republican: 91/8 (down 1 point)

Independent: 37/60 (up 4 points)

Democrat: 12/87 (up 3 points)
The other point out is how that measures historically.

Average presidential job approval at this point in first term (per ABC/Gallup polling): Truman 56 Ike 67 Kennedy 73 Johnson 69 Nixon 58 Ford 47 Carter 52 Reagan 55 HW Bush 71 Clinton 51 W Bush 70 Obama 55 Trump 38
Link

And:

Average presidential job *disapproval* at this point in first term (per ABC/Gallup polling): Ike 18 Kennedy 14 Johnson 17 Nixon 25 Ford 37 Carter 31 Reagan 37 HW Bush 26 Clinton 44 W Bush 25 Obama 41 Trump 57
Link

 
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The question that we need to be asking is, given the economy, why isn't it higher?

Every rule of politics tells us that Trump's approval rating should be high now- so long as the economy does well, it should be at least over 50%. That's been the rule pretty much forever. But as in so many other ways, Trump is really an anomaly here.

 
The question that we need to be asking is, given the economy, why isn't it higher?

Every rule of politics tells us that Trump's approval rating should be high now- so long as the economy does well, it should be at least over 50%. That's been the rule pretty much forever. But as in so many other ways, Trump is really an anomaly here.
I actually think the answer is simple.  Notwithstanding the good things Trump does, there is a huge percentage of the population that simply will not overlook the fact that he is a habitual liar, cheater, and morally and ethically bankrupt.  Comparisons with previous Presidents don't apply, as there has never been someone like Trump in office before.

I'm not an American, but I am conservative (for a Canadian, lol).  If I was though, I wouldn't vote for Trump if God asked me to.

 
The question that we need to be asking is, given the economy, why isn't it higher?

Every rule of politics tells us that Trump's approval rating should be high now- so long as the economy does well, it should be at least over 50%. That's been the rule pretty much forever. But as in so many other ways, Trump is really an anomaly here.
It's funny to me because Trump supporters are basically making the "Participation Trophy" argument. Set the bar as low as possible (worst president in worst economy of past 70 years) and then give yourself a ribbon when you match it during the best economy in the history of the country.

 
I just enjoy this subject matter.

Trump is doing better than Obama at the same point in the same term. Obama was at 44% at day 831 and Trump is at 46 at day 830.

Bush was at 71 on day 816, and Clinton was at 51 on day 844. Bush Sr was at 74 on day 835, Reagan was 43 on day 846, Carter was at 37 on day 837.

Historical graph.

- IIRC Obama was the first president to get reelected while losing EV's in his second race, but of course he had a much larger buffer than Trump.

 
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I take all of these numbers with a major grain of salt. The polls in 2016 were wrong and I'm not sure they are different this time around. If any poster had particular insight into how the methodology, or any other consideration, has changed, I'd be interested to hear about it. 

 
I take all of these numbers with a major grain of salt. The polls in 2016 were wrong and I'm not sure they are different this time around. If any poster had particular insight into how the methodology, or any other consideration, has changed, I'd be interested to hear about it. 
which polls were wrong?

 
The ones that showed Hillary Clinton winning the Presidency....Huff Post, 538.

While I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, was not Hillary Clinton the overwhelming favorite?
I’m not positive, but I think 538 had her winning the popular vote by 3-5 points.

 
I’m not positive, but I think 538 had her winning the popular vote by 3-5 points.
Thanks.

That sounds about right to me. I respect Nate Silver but I think the polls have shown not to be reliable with Trump.

I don't discount them entirely, but I do have a degree of skepticism surrounding them.  In this case, both sides of the argument look at poll numbers as validation of the president's popularity- a basket I would not put all my apples in.

 
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The ones that showed Hillary Clinton winning the Presidency....Huff Post, 538.

While I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, was not Hillary Clinton the overwhelming favorite?
The polls were quite accurate within the margin or error.

They are based on popular vote.  They were extremely accurate with that.

 
The ones that showed Hillary Clinton winning the Presidency....Huff Post, 538.

While I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, was not Hillary Clinton the overwhelming favorite?
I believe this was the last 538 forecast.  Clinton was certainly the favorite but a 28.6% chance of a Trump victory is certainly an underdog with a legit chance.

 
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The ones that showed Hillary Clinton winning the Presidency....Huff Post, 538.

While I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, was not Hillary Clinton the overwhelming favorite?
She had the overwhelming number of votes to....by 3+ million.  That seems dead on.  The polls you guys like to talk about and use don't measure the electoral college.  They measure the individual vote.  That you guys allow our media to lead you away from that is a problem.

And almost every poll was within the margin of error.  It helps to understand how stats and polls work when using them.

 
I don't discount them entirely, but I do have a degree of skepticism surrounding them.  In this case, both sides of the argument look at poll numbers as validation of the president's popularity- a basket I would not put all my apples in.
And this is why the more context the better and why I posted the link that I did above.  It tells a very different story than the narrow view does.

 
The polls were quite accurate within the margin or error.

They are based on popular vote.  They were extremely accurate with that.
You are right.

The failure was to dive deeply enough to each individual state's data to see that Trump's chances of winning were better than projected, as he won several battleground states that went blue in 2008 and 2012.

This is part of my skepticism now- these national polls are not granular enough, too broad to place significant value on.

Whether I am voting for or against Trump- these polls do not inspire confidence in any particular outcome.

Although, I will say, and this is my opinion only, that these polls under represent Trump supporters.

 
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https://www.easttexasmatters.com/news/top-stories/trump-approval-rating-up-to-46-percent-highest-in-nearly-a-year/1983273469

This shows a lower number but

 However, his current approval rating is now higher than President Obama's at the same time in his first term.
Gallup has Trump that high?!  Negative Gallup polls on Trump were always the go to response from left wingers here for anybody posting a Rasmussen poll showing Trump beating Obama at this point in his Presidency.  Now Gallup has Trumps numbers this high all the sudden?  The Russians must be behind this.

 
The failure was to dive deeply enough to each individual state's data to see that Trump's chances of winning were better than projected, as he won several battleground states that went blue in 2008 and 2012.
The failure was falsely equating popular vote with "winning"

 
Gallup has Trump that high?!  Negative Gallup polls on Trump were always the go to response from left wingers here for anybody posting a Rasmussen poll showing Trump beating Obama at this point in his Presidency.  Now Gallup has Trumps numbers this high all the sudden?  The Russians must be behind this.
Most of the time the rebuttal to Rass was an average of all the polls. And it still is. 

 
Very true.

Buyer beware with all of these polls.

Come election day, the state polls in the range of 6-10 states will tell the story.
It's not the polls. it's the people trying to sell you their interpretation of the polls that you need to be aware of. 

 
Actually we can simplify this: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. 

If Trump has good approval numbers in those 3 states on Election Day in 2020 he wins. If he doesn’t (and right now he doesn’t) he loses. That’s the ballgame one way or another. 

 
I take all of these numbers with a major grain of salt. The polls in 2016 were wrong and I'm not sure they are different this time around. If any poster had particular insight into how the methodology, or any other consideration, has changed, I'd be interested to hear about it. 
Not to be a #### but I'm confused by this.  Not this post or posters opinion per say but that fact that the OP started a thread boasting about the polls showing a higher Trump approval rating but liked the post that said all these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt after it was shown the numbers posted were not what they claimed.  Interesting....  So do the numbers matter or should they be taken with a grain of salt @John Blutarsky ?

 
Actually we can simplify this: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. 

If Trump has good approval numbers in those 3 states on Election Day in 2020 he wins. If he doesn’t (and right now he doesn’t) he loses. That’s the ballgame one way or another. 
Do you think a Democrat could flip Texas blue?

 
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2019/05/05/say-what-nbcs-chuck-todd-gives-president-trump-credit-for-record-unemployment-numbers-n2545865

What's interesting to look at though, is President Trump's approval ratings verses President Barack Obama's approval ratings.

When Obama took office in January 2009 his approval rating was 67 percent. In April 2015 – at roughly the same time Trump is currently at during his presidency – Obama's approval rating dropped to 45 percent. 

President Trump's approval rating has actually gone up. When he took office in January 2017 his approval rating was 49 percent. It now sits 56 percent. 

What does this show? Americans have faith in the Trump economy. They're seeing more money in their paychecks thanks to Trump's tax cuts. They're feeling good about the direction things are headed. More people are employed and more money is in people's pockets instead of in the government's bank account. 
How is April 2015 the same time Trump is at in his presidency? Did I lose four years?

 

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