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Late Rookie Discussion (1 Viewer)

Football Jones

Footballguy
I took Travis Homer, James "Boobie" Williams, & Andrew Beck late (early to mid 50s overall) in my dynasty draft.

Homer is smaller (lighter) than what I typically look for, but is great at using leverage & has excellent burst. He could make some noise in Seattle. Williams is another small RB, but he's an outstanding pass-catcher & very good in space. I like him more than Darwin Thompson & the upside is obvious in KC. The Pats gave Beck the most guaranteed money among their UDFAs (& one of the higher figures in the league). A plus blocker, he tested well & has sure hands.

This class was pretty weak overall & the players I mentioned are essentially just stashes, but there are some interesting prospects you can get late. Curious to see who others like.

I'll talk more later.

 
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Just drafted Ryquell Armstead in the 5th and Devine Ozigbo in the 6th of a 14 team IDP dynasty draft.

Armstead is a guided missle that you aim at a hole and then hope it’s open.  If not, there will be one hell of a collision that he may win more often than not.  If it is open, he’s got enough ability to get some good yards after contact at the second level with as hard as he runs.  He won’t catch a lot of passes, but he is a strong between the tackles hammer that can put Foles in decent down and distance on second and third down.  I’ve never been much of a Fournette fan and I’m not sure how enamored JAX is of him, plus the guy always seems to be nursing some kind of owwie.

I like Ozigbo a lot more than I like Armstead, but Armstead’s ADP is higher.  Ozigbo was non-existent under the previous regime in Lincoln, but when Frost took over and instituted some old fashioned NE discipline, dedication and playcalling Ozigbo blossomed.  He’s got decent vision, burst, size and athleticism and he’s tough to tackle.  He can also catch out of the backfield and looks like a perfect sleeper to slide in alongside Kamara and take over Ingram’s role.  I know Murray is there too and it may cause Ozigbo to be FF irrelevant for up to a year, but if he shows the same kind of ability, mind set, and growth as he did last year Murray won’t be able to hold him off for long.  Don’t be fooled by Ozigbo’s late college breakout - that was almost all due to coaching.  This kid is a legit hidden gem and will start catching a lot of notice once the pads go on.  He’s probably my very favorite back-half-of-the-draft sleeper.

 
I'll discuss these type guys after my offseason waiver run right before training camps start (when we can add undrafted rookies & unclaimed veterans).

To be clear, all the players in this grouping are only POTENTIAL stashes (fliers), but still an interesting mix despite this being a down class. 

 
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Just drafted Ryquell Armstead in the 5th and Devine Ozigbo in the 6th of a 14 team IDP dynasty draft.

Armstead is a guided missle that you aim at a hole and then hope it’s open.  If not, there will be one hell of a collision that he may win more often than not.  If it is open, he’s got enough ability to get some good yards after contact at the second level with as hard as he runs.  He won’t catch a lot of passes, but he is a strong between the tackles hammer that can put Foles in decent down and distance on second and third down.  I’ve never been much of a Fournette fan and I’m not sure how enamored JAX is of him, plus the guy always seems to be nursing some kind of owwie.
Armstead has an unappreciated opportunity in Jacksonville. The back up for Fournette is wide open. What with the injury concerns there, Im surprised more people aren't all over Armstead. Oh well. For now he offers about the best draft capital available in the 4th round. 

I really like him on tape. He reminds me of Arian Foster, but a little more violent and not quite as elusive. Tremendous on outside zone runs. 

I disagree a little about what he offers as a receiver. He gets open when asked to run routes, except the QB usually chooses to throw downfield. I did see him drop a few though, maybe that's why he doesnt get targets. All this to say I think there's some pass catching potential.

 
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Armstead has an unappreciated opportunity in Jacksonville. The back up for Fournette is wide open. What with the injury concerns there, Im surprised more people aren't all over Armstead. Oh well. For now he offers about the best draft capital available in the 4th round. 

I really like him on tape. He reminds me of Arian Foster, but a little more violent and not quite as elusive. Tremendous on outside zone runs. 

I disagree a little about what he offers as a receiver. He gets open when asked to run routes, except the QB usually chooses to throw downfield. I did see him drop a few though, maybe that's why he doesnt get targets. All this to say I think there's some pass catching potential.
I don't disagree with the opportunity, but it feels like everyone is on this guy. 

 
Stanley Morgan is my guy. Day 2 tape that lacks the production because his offense was garbage finds himself on a team with nothing beyond it's top 2 wr and is void of anything worthwhile at te.

 
Somewhere in the third seems about right but I think if he's going there this soon after the draft, he's on a lot of sleeper radars already (as a guy who wasn't talked about at all basically before the draft).

 
Stanley Morgan is my guy. Day 2 tape that lacks the production because his offense was garbage finds himself on a team with nothing beyond it's top 2 wr and is void of anything worthwhile at te.
Ok I’m not familiar with Morgan. I’m going to guess he’s on Houston by the team you described. 

 
Just a note on my post. It was first reported LJ Scott signed with Baltimore (last week), but FBG's daily mailer this morning has him just now signing with Cleveland. No idea what happened.

The Browns aren't a good landing spot behind so much talent. Situation is paramount with UDFAs so this knocks Scott off my radar for now.

 
Somewhere in the third seems about right but I think if he's going there this soon after the draft, he's on a lot of sleeper radars already (as a guy who wasn't talked about at all basically before the draft).
Call me greedy, but I wait for the 4th. Not saying he's not worth a 3rd, but theres reasonable chance hes still available next round. Ive been able to trade for him easily when somebody snakes him first. Makes me think theres not much of a hype train. 

 
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Give me the 3rd rounder rookie TE’s. Warring, Oliver, Knox, etc. They can be had in late 4th/5th.
grabbed him in R5 of my rookie draft. not a ton of highlights on his college tape but then he had Metcalf and Brown in the passing game to account for.  good measurables for the position though. 

 
Bengals....and that's all i know 
Queue up whatever you can find on Morgan.  You'll be impressed.  I don't know if there's an issue going on between his ears we aren't privy to, but when it comes to lotto tickets I don't concern myself with that stuff. 

His tape is substantially better than every WR picked after Hakeem Butler.  And an argument could be made for at least some picked before him.  His competition includes stars like Josh Malone, Alex Erickson, Auden Tate, and Cody Core.  The notoriously cheap Bengals may not necessarily retain Tyler Boyd before his contract expires at season's end.  John Ross has 21 career catches, a 35% catch rate, and an offensive 3.5 yards per target.  AJ Green is great but he will be 31 opening day, hasn't stayed healthy 2 of the last 3 seasons, and hasn't had double digit TD's since 2015.  Anyone's guess if Zac Taylor is competent or if he just knows Sean McVay, but if he is going to pan out it's going to be on the heels of whatever offense he brings. 

You want opportunity, this is it.

 
Queue up whatever you can find on Morgan.  You'll be impressed.  I don't know if there's an issue going on between his ears we aren't privy to, but when it comes to lotto tickets I don't concern myself with that stuff. 

His tape is substantially better than every WR picked after Hakeem Butler.  And an argument could be made for at least some picked before him.  His competition includes stars like Josh Malone, Alex Erickson, Auden Tate, and Cody Core.  The notoriously cheap Bengals may not necessarily retain Tyler Boyd before his contract expires at season's end.  John Ross has 21 career catches, a 35% catch rate, and an offensive 3.5 yards per target.  AJ Green is great but he will be 31 opening day, hasn't stayed healthy 2 of the last 3 seasons, and hasn't had double digit TD's since 2015.  Anyone's guess if Zac Taylor is competent or if he just knows Sean McVay, but if he is going to pan out it's going to be on the heels of whatever offense he brings. 

You want opportunity, this is it.


Morgan is a good call.  He performed pretty decently in his career at Nebraska, but like Ozigbo when Frost took over as HC he really started to step up and shine.  It’s always tough to project translation of skills/production in WRs to the pros, but Stanley does have the advantage of bloodlines to the NFL, so he’s not going in as wide eyed as a lot of these kids.

 
I recently had two 4 round rookie drafts complete. and here are some people I am eyeballing as undrafted free agents when waivers run:

RB

James Williams - KC

Devine Ozigbo - NO

Damarea Crockett - HOU

WR 

Preston Williams - Mia ( He was drafted in 1. available in another)

Riley Ridley - CHI (same as above available in 1)

Hunter Renfro - Oak

Gary Jennings - Sea

TE

Dawson Knox - Buff

Having a hard time finding someone to cut for any of them and my taxi squad is already full......trying to strike before camp/pre-season. some hype might get going on these guys by then

 
RB

James Williams - KC

Devine Ozigbo - NO

Damarea Crockett - HOU

WR 

Preston Williams - Mia ( He was drafted in 1. available in another)

Riley Ridley - CHI (same as above available in 1)

Hunter Renfro - Oak

Gary Jennings - Sea

TE

Dawson Knox - Buff


Someone also burned a late 4th on Bruce Anderson - RB - Tampa.....from North Dakota State
I'm the same with a lot of these guys and a few others.  Not sure who I would cut, but definitley on my radar/watchlist.

 
I recently had two 4 round rookie drafts complete. and here are some people I am eyeballing as undrafted free agents when waivers run:

RB

James Williams - KC

Devine Ozigbo - NO

Damarea Crockett - HOU

WR 

Preston Williams - Mia ( He was drafted in 1. available in another)

Riley Ridley - CHI (same as above available in 1)

Hunter Renfro - Oak

Gary Jennings - Sea

TE

Dawson Knox - Buff

Having a hard time finding someone to cut for any of them and my taxi squad is already full......trying to strike before camp/pre-season. some hype might get going on these guys by then.
Isn't Ridley the obvious pick up? Or Jennings. Although I'm not keen on him, I'm a believer in draft capital in this part of the process. Plus, you can't deny he has a great opportunity in Seattle.

 
I recently had two 4 round rookie drafts complete. and here are some people I am eyeballing as undrafted free agents when waivers run:

RB

James Williams - KC

Devine Ozigbo - NO

Damarea Crockett - HOU

WR 

Preston Williams - Mia ( He was drafted in 1. available in another)

Riley Ridley - CHI (same as above available in 1)

Hunter Renfro - Oak

Gary Jennings - Sea

TE

Dawson Knox - Buff

Having a hard time finding someone to cut for any of them and my taxi squad is already full......trying to strike before camp/pre-season. some hype might get going on these guys by then
Im targeting James Williams everywhere I can.  The guy caught 154 passes the last two seasons and over 200 over the last three.  And he went to Kansas City.  I know they drafted Thompson too but it was only a 6th round pick, plus he is more of an early down back and likely to compete with Hyde and Darrell Williams for a roster spot.  Boobie has a great chance to stick as a 3rd down/ COP type and if any injury hits Damien, look out.

Easily my favorite 4th round pick right now.

 
I agree on a few here. After my waivers clear Sunday I will post one I havent seen yet and is very under the radar for some reason... for now I'm keeping the cat in the bag

 
Isn't Ridley the obvious pick up? Or Jennings. Although I'm not keen on him, I'm a believer in draft capital in this part of the process. Plus, you can't deny he has a great opportunity in Seattle.
I think we're all guilty of having blind spots for our preconceived bias and at least at times don't account for draft capital enough, but given Ridley's skill set and the madman running the Bears offense I think he needs several things to happen to become an interesting start.  I think Jennings is a more interesting talent, but I don't have any confidence in Schottenheimer's offense supporting anything beyond Lockett.  And if it does then it's probably DK.  To have fun with arbitrary end points, the Seahawks attempted > 31 times just one time after week 3 last year.

In both of their cases I don't think we'll have much more info on either one of them between now and 11.5 months from now.  I think there's value in a quicker information turnaround timeline, so I'd trend towards the backs.  They could all get whacked in September, but then you have a roster spot open for an August surprise that isn't on any radars right now.

 
I think we're all guilty of having blind spots for our preconceived bias and at least at times don't account for draft capital enough, but given Ridley's skill set and the madman running the Bears offense I think he needs several things to happen to become an interesting start.  I think Jennings is a more interesting talent, but I don't have any confidence in Schottenheimer's offense supporting anything beyond Lockett.  And if it does then it's probably DK.  To have fun with arbitrary end points, the Seahawks attempted > 31 times just one time after week 3 last year.
Seattle and Chicago are two interesting offenses for investment right now. Seattle has been shaken up. If your talking beyond year one, great chance Shotty is gone. which is good I guess. Either way there's a lot unestablished receivers competing for targets from Wilson. They do have deep threats Locket, Metcalf, Moore, and Brown. Though I still can't believe I'm defending Jennings, he's the best projected chain mover on the team.

As for Chicago, I don't understand the disdain for Nagy's offense, ranking about mid table. Fox had the same offense in the dumpster. There's at least one reason to anticipate continued improvement: development of Trubisky. He only started one year in college so a learning curve shouldn't be unexpected. Hopefully he keeps getting better, which benefits the receivers the most. You could tell a story where Ridley jumps Miller, or maybe they the both emerge if Robinson leaves or gets hurt.

I don't put much stock into any of this though. Is there correlational between my analysis of a situation and fantasy points? I don't know, I haven't kept track. But I know there's correlation between draft status and fantasy points. So if my league lets a couple of 4th round receivers fall, I'm not going to overthink it. It's a pretty easy choice for me.

 
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Seattle and Chicago are two interesting offenses for investment right now. Seattle has been shaken up. If your talking beyond year one, great chance Shotty is gone. which is good I guess. Either way there's a lot unestablished receivers competing for targets from Wilson. They do have deep threats Locket, Metcalf, Moore, and Brown. Though I still can't believe I'm defending Jennings, he's the best projected chain mover on the team.

As for Chicago, I don't understand the disdain for Nagy's offense, ranking about mid table. Fox had the same offense in the dumpster. There's at least one reason to anticipate continued improvement: development of Trubisky. He only started one year in college so a learning curve shouldn't be unexpected. Hopefully he keeps getting better, which benefits the receivers the most. You could tell a story where Ridley jumps Miller, or maybe they the both emerge if Robinson leaves or gets hurt.

I don't put much stock into any of this though. Is there correlational between my analysis of a situation and fantasy points? I don't know, I haven't kept track. But I know there's correlation between draft status and fantasy points. So if my league lets a couple of 4th round receivers fall, I'm not going to overthink it. It's a pretty easy choice for me.
I love Nagy's offense, but I'm not sure how conducive it is to fantasy success to the complimentary weapons since he involves everyone.  Literally, everyone.  He's calling scoring plays to FB's, DT's, and LB's.  So in order for Ridley to become a quality play before 2021 (health withstanding) he needs to jump Anthony Miller, Robinson has to be a cap casualty next year, Gabriel probably has to suffer a similar fate, and they can't bring in another WR that's better than all of them.  And if Ridley's able to overcome 3 of those 4 hurdles he still has to contend with the 3 headed RB stable and Burton since they're all cheaply under contract through 2020.  So he has a difficult path to a decent situation all while his skill set is more conducive to chain moving vs. scoring/big plays, which means he needs quantity to have the upside we covet in our game.  And the Bears aren't in a cap situation that'll force them to trim fat from this arsenal any time soon in large part because they don't have to pay Trubisky until 2022.  I think Ridley's the best bet from that batch to still have a job 3 years from now, but I also think his chances of being a quality play in our game are small and worst of all - you have to wait to find out.  It may just be me, but when it comes to the edges of my roster I don't wait around for (m)any players.  And if I am going to wait then the pay off needs to be good.  And that's where I think Ridley falls short.  I don't think he has the ceiling to justify waiting on him.

Jennings?  I loathe looking at someone's situation and having zero confidence he has any use in year one (Schotty is a problem), but unlike in Chicago the Seahawks do not have the financial flexibility to hoard skill position players.  Both Moore and Brown are UFA's at season's end and there's nothing of consequence at TE.  If either of them play well or Jennings just proves better then they're gone because Seattle can't afford them - or doesn't want them back.  And their ability to bring in anything better is limited.  So there is a path to Jennings having a substantially better situation in year two.  I'm wary that if Schotty is canned that Carroll will bring in someone else with a similar philosophy, but given Jennings' price tag I won't fight someone drafting him.  He could certainly be a #2 WR in 2020 on a more open offense with an established QB without TE's stealing (many) targets.

 
Darius Slayton seems like a decent flier. Tate won’t be around forever and there isn’t a lot on the depth chart to get to #3.

 
skinfanjon said:
Im targeting James Williams everywhere I can.  The guy caught 154 passes the last two seasons and over 200 over the last three.  And he went to Kansas City.  I know they drafted Thompson too but it was only a 6th round pick, plus he is more of an early down back and likely to compete with Hyde and Darrell Williams for a roster spot.  Boobie has a great chance to stick as a 3rd down/ COP type and if any injury hits Damien, look out.

Easily my favorite 4th round pick right now.
Boobie is already their best pass-catcher as a rookie. That, alone, is worth the rather small investment given KC’s potential on offense.

Also, despite being undersized, Boobie has some legit skills as a runner. He’s really good in space.

I like Boobie better than Thompson simply because of his ceiling. Tremendous cost to upside ratio as a late round flier.

 
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A little more about Homer...

If he was 15 pounds heavier with the same skills, we'd be looking at a day-2 pick minimum. That said, Homer only weighs 201. The good news is he might be the best smaller (lighter) RB I've scouted as far as using leverage to gain extra yards. Plus, he's physical in general.

Homer does EVERYTHING well. His raw athleticism is impressive, too (he excelled at the Combine). The bad news is Homer was a 6th round pick which means he'll start down the depth chart & won't necessarily get the opportunity others will.

Homer is an outstanding flier, though, & if he makes the team, I'd consider him to be a top dynasty stash. The situation is Seattle is at least decent with nobody established at this time.

 
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A little more about Homer...

If he was 15 pounds heavier with the same skills, we'd be looking at a day-2 pick minimum. That said, Homer only weighs 201. The good news is he's one of the better smaller (lighter) RBs I've scouted as far as using leverage to gain extra yards. Plus, he's physical in general. 

Homer does EVERYTHING well. His raw physical tools are impressive, too (he excelled at the Combine). The bad news is Homer was a 6th round pick which means he'll start down the depth chart & won't necessarily get the opportunity others will.

Homer is an outstanding flier, though, & if he makes the team, I'd consider him to be a top dynasty stash. The situation is Seattle is at least decent with nobody established at this time.
I like Homer a lot. He is very under the radar given his landing spot

 
I like Homer a lot. He is very under the radar given his landing spot
Homer has good speed & his burst is outstanding. He also runs much bigger than his size would indicate. Homer's overall package (running/receiving/blocking) is pretty impressive. 

I wish he was a little bigger (heavier), but this cat is no joke as a late round prospect. I'm curious to see if Homer can overcome the size issue because he's got some advantages other smaller RBs lack.

 
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How are opinions of Alex Barnes?  Drafted into a terrible situation in TEN, but seems to offer a complete skill set in a big body and is extremely athletic.  He has great patience in letting his blocks set up - a skill often lacking in rookies - but he does have a habit of biding his time at times when he should just hit the hole quickly and get into the second level.

 
How are opinions of Alex Barnes?  Drafted into a terrible situation in TEN, but seems to offer a complete skill set in a big body and is extremely athletic.  He has great patience in letting his blocks set up - a skill often lacking in rookies - but he does have a habit of biding his time at times when he should just hit the hole quickly and get into the second level.
My son really likes Barnes. I wonder how some of his skills will translate, but not a bad flier at all, especially if you're looking for insurance on Henry. I thought the Titans might go get a decent veteran, but they haven't done that yet. Barnes could end up being the early down backup.

 
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How are opinions of Alex Barnes?  Drafted into a terrible situation in TEN, but seems to offer a complete skill set in a big body and is extremely athletic.  He has great patience in letting his blocks set up - a skill often lacking in rookies - but he does have a habit of biding his time at times when he should just hit the hole quickly and get into the second level.
I dont think it's a terrible situation. There was a near obsession over Akrum Wadley last year. As far as I can tell, nothing has changed in that backfield from 2018. 

Lewis is a cut candidate after this year and Henry might be gone as well if they dont want to pay him big bucks (or if he isnt worth it). Theres opportunity. not immediate unless injury but that's pretty much where we are with the rest of these guys

 
I recently had two 4 round rookie drafts complete. and here are some people I am eyeballing as undrafted free agents when waivers run:

RB

James Williams - KC

Devine Ozigbo - NO

Damarea Crockett - HOU

WR 

Preston Williams - Mia ( He was drafted in 1. available in another)

Riley Ridley - CHI (same as above available in 1)

Hunter Renfro - Oak

Gary Jennings - Sea

TE

Dawson Knox - Buff

Having a hard time finding someone to cut for any of them and my taxi squad is already full......trying to strike before camp/pre-season. some hype might get going on these guys by then
What are the big plusses with Crockett , other than opportunity with only Lamar Miller (meh) and Foreman (returning from a major injury) ahead of him in Houston? From what I've seen he fumbles a lot and has almost no pass catching experience.

 
Dillion Mitchell, actually went to a solid spot (Vikings) so surprised his name is being tgrown around a little more. Lead Oregon in receiving by a ton this year. Just got him in the first waiver run after the rookie draft so can get very cheap. Has solid size at 6’1 200 pounds. 

Not really much in the receiver room in minny except Diggs and thielen so should be able to learn and develop for a couple years and if someone gets hurt may be thrust into a starting role right away. Did read he has struggled with drops, tries to make plays before he secures the catch so needs to fix that.

 
Football Jones said:
A little more about Homer...

If he was 15 pounds heavier with the same skills, we'd be looking at a day-2 pick minimum. That said, Homer only weighs 201. The good news is he might be the best smaller (lighter) RB I've scouted as far as using leverage to gain extra yards. Plus, he's physical in general.

Homer does EVERYTHING well. His raw athleticism is impressive, too (he excelled at the Combine). The bad news is Homer was a 6th round pick which means he'll start down the depth chart & won't necessarily get the opportunity others will.

Homer is an outstanding flier, though, & if he makes the team, I'd consider him to be a top dynasty stash. The situation is Seattle is at least decent with nobody established at this time.
None of this is wrong, but you didn't mention his biggest problem.  Fumbles.

 
None of this is wrong, but you didn't mention his biggest problem.  Fumbles.
It’s something to watch. I don’t worry much about fumbles, personally. It can almost always be corrected.

Hopefully, Homer can protect the ball & show off his skills in training camp/preseason games.

 
It’s something to watch. I don’t worry much about fumbles, personally. It can almost always be corrected.

Hopefully, Homer can protect the ball & show off his skills in training camp/preseason games.
Again, you're not wrong - in this case about it possibly being corrected.  But the bolded?  Little reason for someone without a vested interest beyond a lotto ticket in their dynasty leeg in worrying about it, but if it doesn't correct itself immediately the most important people in controlling his fate (his coaches) care - and he won't play.

 
Again, you're not wrong - in this case about it possibly being corrected.  But the bolded?  Little reason for someone without a vested interest beyond a lotto ticket in their dynasty leeg in worrying about it, but if it doesn't correct itself immediately the most important people in controlling his fate (his coaches) care - and he won't play.
If a RB has talent, fumbling is rarely a long-term issue. I don’t really use it as a tool for scouting, but I understand the concern.

 
Mentioned once before, but now that I have him... Bruce Anderson is the guy to go get IMO. Jones cant catch a cold. Barber isnt known for his hands... he can do it but I'm not sure in high volume. Bruce Anderson has a great opportunity to at the very least carve out a passing role in this offense, and best steal the starting job all together. super excited about this guy

 
If a RB has talent, fumbling is rarely a long-term issue. I don’t really use it as a tool for scouting, but I understand the concern.


I don’t want to get to far into this, but I have to ask.  If fumbling is such an easy problem to solve, then why does he still have it?  You think his high school and college coaches just didn’t notice him putting the ball on the carpet or just didn’t care?  How does a consumate pro like Adrian Peterson continue to have fumbling problems throughout his pro career if the fix is so simple?

 
my key targets/gets for the first round of FAAB:

My must haves:

Devine Ozigbo: Murray has had injury issues in his past and Ozigbo may very well even be better. Big opportunity especially if one of those 2 backs gets hurt. 

Bruce Anderson: see my post above. I think he has a chance to have an impact as Lindsay did last year. While everyone is blowing their wad over James Williams, Bruce Anderson is much cheaper and has an easier path to relevancy than William's

Some bigger dart throws: 

Alex Barnes: Last year there was a lot of talk about Akrum Wadley because of the lack of consistency at the rb position. Henry truthers would say that issue is solved, but its hard to make judgements off of a few outlier games at the end of the season. If Henry continues where he left off then I'm sure TEN would like to lock him up. If not, that backfield is wide open.

Damarea Crockett: I'm surprised that Houston didnt draft any RBs, but maybe that speaks for how they feel about Miller and Foreman. Foreman, IMO, is done for, but maybe I'm wrong. If I'm right, Crockett seems to be the better of the 2 UDFA they brought in

 

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