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EBF

Top 29 Rookies 2019

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NOTES:

- I didn't scout the QBs at all, so what you see here for them is just based on draft position and reputation.

- These rankings assume a generic PPR format where RB/WR are the key positions. In formats that emphasize QB and/or TE, those players might jump up a tier or two.

- Looking ahead, I think I'd like to spend more time trying to parse that big round 2-3 TE cluster. Right now I have a lot of them lumped together.

- On that note, I would say TE is the only position group this year from QB/RB/WR/TE that yielded an above average crop of players. It's the strongest position and if you are in TE-premium formats then I'd strongly consider bucking the ADP trend to consider some of those round 2-3 TEs over the round 2-3 WRs.

- One of the keys to this draft might be solving the round 2-3 WR rankings. There are a lot of them and I have to believe some of those guys will pan out, but as you'll see here I'm relatively down on most of that group at the moment.

- I think this draft is pretty weak at the top and I would equate the 1.02 this year with the 1.05 or 1.06 in a typical year in terms of value.

 

FIRST TIER

1. RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - The clear #1 for me. He didn't break a lot of long runs in college and hasn't shown that he can handle a full workload, but he fits the mold of what works in the NFL. A complete three down back with quickness, power, speed, and versatility. Zeke-lite.
2. RB Miles Sanders, Eagles - Not quite a can't-miss guy and if I needed WR help then I would consider bumping him down to the bottom of this tier, as I don't necessarily think he's a better prospect than these WRs. A bit of a power/speed tweener, he's not elite in either category, but has above average straight-line burst and enough size. What sets him apart is his loose hips and quick feet, showing ability in space that evokes past Eagles greats like McCoy and Westbrook.
3. WR AJ Brown, Titans - A big target with nice vertical speed and enough mobility. His play style is in line with other big catch-and-run threats. Not quite as loose as his best comps like Demaryius, Crabtree, and JuJu, but cut from a similar cloth and should present enough positives to win in the NFL and be a steady threat.
4. WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers - Somewhere between Anquan Boldin on the high end and Quincy Enunwa on the low end. A stocky, physical possession WR who will be a nightmare working the middle of the field and making plays after the catch. He's almost TOO bulky, with a BMI that's flirting with TE/RB territory, but it doesn't seem to impact his mobility. He clocked 4.49 at the combine and is a loose open field runner. Lacks great height, catch radius, and downfield game, but is a moving chess piece that could catch 80-90 passes per season.
5. WR N'Keal Harry, Patriots - A throwback big-body possession WR whose impact may parallel someone like Keyshawn Johnson. Not the most dynamic guy despite the occasional highlight reel run after the catch, but moves relatively well for his size and has just enough mobility to create space. Good possession and jump ball potential. He's unlikely to become a superstar, but he can be a consistent chain mover and a multi-year 1000 yard guy.

SECOND TIER


6. WR Marquise Brown, Ravens - His game is all about vertical explosiveness, reminiscent of TY Hilton and DeSean Jackson. He eats people alive running downfield and will be an explosive threat even against the superior defenders in the NFL. At just 5'9" 166 pounds, there are significant concerns about whether or not he will be able to stay healthy in the NFL. He will be one of the smallest players in the league. Jackson and Hilton have managed to stay relatively healthy, but other speedy toothpick WRs like Paul Richardson and Will Fuller have struggled. I like Brown's talent and if I knew he could survive the rigors of the league then I'd have him in the tier above, but durability issues bump him down slightly.
7. QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals - As I mentioned, I didn't spend time scouting these QBs. The #1 pick in the draft with a big reputation. Given that I don't love the other options here, I'll take a chance on the BPA and hope that I'm getting something in the neighborhood of Russell Wilson-Drew Brees as a best case scenario.
8. RB Darrell Henderson, Rams - A difficult prospect to evaluate because his statistics are great and he has some exciting qualities, but his film somehow fails to fully convince me. Henderson is a speed back who uses his impressive acceleration to gash teams up the middle. Though a compact back on paper, his play style is less similar to height/weight peers like Ray Rice and Devonta Freeman, and more comparable to the sprinter types like Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, and Chris Johnson. He is more of a north-south slasher who wins with instant speed than an east-west juker who wins with cuts and power. While he is built stronger than Charles/CJ2K/DMC, he lacks the same elite stopwatch speed. I think there's some risk that he's just a spot duty/committee guy, but the ceiling is exciting and that's why I'd roll the dice here.
9. RB David Montgomery, Bears - While I don't hate his game, he goes so high in my drafts that this essentially equates to a "do not draft" rating, since he'll never fall this far in your league. I like his frame and his elite balance. He is a springy back with good feet and hips. He goes to a team where he could start from day one, and is probably one of the frontrunners for FF ROY. However, his game lacks any semblance of vertical speed or explosiveness, reflected in his slow 40 time, low college YPC, and low rate of breaking long runs at the NCAA level. He projects as a grinder who will be reliant on volume to score FF points because he doesn't figure to generate a lot of explosive plays. I think he is slightly overrated and more of a JAG risk than his high rookie ADP would indicate, though if you're looking for instant production then he might be your man for a year or two. I call him Slow Mixon because his elite balance and cutting skills remind me of the Bengals RB, but unlike Mixon he possesses no long speed or explosion. That can be the difference between an elite pro and an average NFL player.
10. RB Damien Harris, Patriots - This feels too high for a player who appears to have a modest ceiling, but I don't love this draft class and I can't help but like what he presents. He has a pro ready frame and a versatile skill set that could translate to a three down role in the future. He is compact and stocky with a little more long speed than given credit for, and just enough cutting ability to make it work. He's not an elite talent and doesn't have the bouncy agility to string together a sequence of moves, but he has juuuust enough agility to slip tackles in the second level and this ability elevates him above your typical replacement level day three grinder. The situation is murky in New England and it's easy to envision Harris being a guy who tops out as a useless 700-800 rushing yards per season type of commodity, but I do think his game is somewhat underrated and there's a chance of him being a Mark Ingram at the pro level. Ultimately, he's a high floor-low ceiling player who offers intriguing value in mandatory 2RB formats, but lukewarm upside for flexy 1RB leagues.
11. WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks - A looks-like-Tarzan-plays-like-Jane type whose explosive SPARQ attributes only roughly translate to the football field. He is genuinely fast on downfield routes, but is a mediocre mover on short-intermediate stuff, playing tight and failing to generate good separation. There's an interesting ceiling if he keeps developing, as the sheer size/speed combo is reminiscent of standouts like Josh Gordon and Julio Jones, but he's nowhere near the fluidity of Julio and right now he looks like an overrated player coasting on reputation and workout numbers.

12. TE TJ Hockenson, Lions - It's rare for a TE to get picked in the top ten and if you're just looking for a safe selection or the best player available then he trumps people like Harris and Metcalf and should be selected ahead of them. However, TE is a devalued position in most formats, meaning he'll have to become a Pro Bowler to be worth a first round rookie pick. I don't like him as much as I liked past first round TE prospects like Winslow, Eifert, and Ebron, but the track record of first round TEs is strong and at worst he looks like he'll be a mid level NFL starter.

 13. TE Noah Fant, Broncos -  A tall, straight-line strider type who wins with vertical ability. Though he doesn't move as well as people like Hurst and Eifert in his routes and breaks, his straight-line explosiveness for the position is very rare and would seemingly give him a high ceiling. The Broncos did well with Julius Thomas for many years and Fant is potentially a better version of the same type of player. For BPA purposes, you can probably take either Iowa TE as high as #8-9 overall if you don't like the RB/WR options in this tier.

14. WR Andy Isabella, Cardinals - Isabella presents an unusual package of skills and is a difficult projection to the NFL because he has some obvious elite traits and some obvious glaring weaknesses. His speed is as good as anyone in this class. He destroys cushion instantly and covers the first 10-15 yards at lighting speed. While short, he has a compact and sturdy looking frame that should hold up well to the rigors of the job. He was immensely productive in college and managed to get drafted in the 2nd round despite coming from a small program. On the other hand, he is a stubby little guy with short arms and no real catch radius. He will body catch too much and doesn't project as a consistent winner in contested situations. While straight-line fast, his phone booth quickness is just okay and he has a little bit of tightness in his movement. Though he has the speed to play outside, he physically resembles other slot WRs like Cole Beasley and Wes Welker. Those guys found success in the NFL and if Isabella can nail down a job as Murray's safety valve then there's a sneaky ceiling here. In PPR leagues, there's an outside chance that he'll become one of the best players from this draft. However, his atypical game and obvious flaws mark him as a boom-or-bust prospect. I wouldn't want to spend a first round rookie pick on him, but there's a range rin the 12-16 area where the risk/reward equation makes sense.

THIRD TIER


15. WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs - He'll provide a downfield threat and if it really clicks then you might have Mahomes's version of TY Hilton, but his game film and production don't stack up to that standard, so I skew towards skepticism. The Chiefs tried to fill a need and there's a chance they got it right, but I think he's being overdrafted based on situation and what Mahomes/Hill achieved together. He doesn't appear to be the same caliber of athlete as his predecessor.
16. WR Parris Campbell, Colts - Another guy who doesn't really play up to his combine metrics. He's straight-line fast, but that seems to be about the extent of his elite traits. Average route ability and despite reasonable height/weight, isn't a physical presence on the field. I want to like him because he goes to a team with a great QB in the prime of his career. There's a scenario where he becomes a reliable target for Luck and the Indianapolis version of Emmanuel Sanders, but his film didn't wow me, so I'm passing at his lofty ADP.

17. RB Devin Singletary, Bills - Like Frank Gore, a soft body who didn't shine in combine testing. What he lacks in quantifiable explosiveness he helps make up for with good footwork and cuts. He has good agility and at times will remind you of LeSean McCoy with his sticky plant-and-drive elusiveness. You can see why the Bills selected him as a potential successor to McCoy, as there are some stylistic similarities. While not a huge back, his weight is fine for his height. I liked his tape overall and think he has a chance to succeed, but he's a bad tester who lacks McCoy's outright footspeed (~4.50 vs. 4.65). Will be caught from behind consistently, won't threaten anyone with speed in the NFL, and will have to work tirelessly for every yard. A lot of tread off the tires already. Worth a shot at his modest ADP and is a good candidate for the underrated tag, but not an elite prospect.
18. WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers - These thin, speedy WRs were all the rage in the draft this year, but I'm lukewarm on most of them. Johnson plays much faster than his 4.5 speed and is comparable in some ways to John Brown or Titus Young before he went nuts. All are thin, explosive players who win with burst and speed. I don't see an Antonio Brown ceiling here. He looks like a role player, but his relatively low ADP compared with Campbell/Hardman presents decent value since he's a similar style of player drafted in the same general vicinity, but typically falls a round lower in the rookie draft.
19. WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Eagles - I feel like I'm taking crazy pills with JJAW because I don't see how he's going to win in the NFL, but people seem to like him and he went high in the draft to a team with a good young QB. He has some of the worst movement skills of any WR taken in the top 100 this year. Everything is contested because he can't really run clean routes or separate. On the other hand, he's a great red zone threat and a consistent winner in jump ball situations. Ultimately, I think he's a day three talent with a modest ceiling, but...they took him in the 2nd, so they must see something they like here. I can't ignore the draft slot, but I'm passing at his ADP.
20. RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings - I think he's somewhere in the ballpark of Joique Bell or LeGarrette Blount in terms of his style and talent level. His run skills are solid, but unspectacular. He has a better north-south burst than his 40 time and college production would indicate, but he's not an overly dynamic or creative back. He's a grinder who will complement the smaller, but more dynamic Dalvin Cook. His ability to play all three downs and catch the ball out of the backfield at 220+ pounds is likely what pushed him up into day two of the draft. In the long run he's probably just a backup in the league, but Cook isn't necessarily a durable back and Mattison has nice fill-in potential since he can be a 20+ touch per game player in spurts. Do not take him over these TEs in TE-premium formats, but in RB-heavy leagues consider him as useful depth who will be a sporadic spot starter.
21. TE Irv Smith, Vikings - I like almost all of the TEs in this range and it's hard for me to narrow it down, so I'm just going with the guy who was picked highest. Smith appears to be a good, but not elite athlete with a ceiling as a mid-low level TE1 in FF.
22. TE Jace Sternberger, Packers - A bit like former Cowboys bust Gavin Escobar in terms of being a player who plays more athletic than he tests. His play style is reminiscent of Tyler Eifert, but without the 1st round athleticism. Sternberger's combine metrics don't stack up with the other TEs in this tier, but on the field he is a smooth operator with good route running and receiving skills. Ideally he'd have a bit more SPARQ-iness to his profile, but the landing spot is nice and if it clicks you've got Rodgers's safety valve and a mid-level TE1.
23. TE Kahale Warring, Texans - A work-in-progress who doesn't quite look like a star, but does everything well. Not an elite athlete, but a good one with some burst and a big frame. The upside is there to be a productive starter for the Texans.
24. TE Dawson Knox, Bills - An interesting guy because he's obviously a very good athlete, but they used him sparingly as a receiver. I actually took a look at him last year for a dev draft and liked what I saw, but the problem then was largely the same as it is now: He was used so sparingly as a receiver that there's very little film on him. What I know for sure is that he has plus athleticism for a TE, with a sturdy frame and fluid movement skills. He may be the best pure athlete of the TEs in this tier and there's a nice ceiling to be something like a Chris Cooley type if you can be patient.
25. QB Dwayne Haskins, Redskins - I didn't evaluate him, but on paper his college stats look a lot better than what Jones did. At this stage of the draft I'm happy to take a first round QB.
26. QB Daniel Jones, Giants - This pick by NYG was widely ridiculed and on paper Jones was nothing special at Duke, but I'll assume they have some clue what they're doing and that he could become a Flacco type of QB eventually. He's obviously not exciting anyone, as I actually got him with the 4.10 pick in one league, but at some point you just have to roll the dice on the draft profile.
27. WR Miles Boykin, Ravens - A 4.4 guy who plays like a 4.65 guy, Boykin is a fluid athlete for his size, but doesn't play with the physical dominance that his workout profile suggests. Lacks suddenness and seems like he is thinking too much while playing. A one gear player at the moment. Baltimore has a checkered history of drafting WRs and while they obviously covet big bodies, they'll have to be patient with Boykin because he is not ready to do anything right now. I lean towards him being a nobody on Sundays, but there's some long-term project upside.
28. WR Jalen Hurd, 49ers - They took him high and I like some of what he does. He's a competitive player and a natural football player. I've said that he's a poor man's Keenan Allen and there's a similarity in terms of being taller, leaner WRs who want to win with quickness, range, and RAC skills. However, Hurd isn't as fluid as Allen on the football field and, despite his past as a RB, is surprisingly thin and weak through the lower body. He doesn't appear to have the speed or downfield game to be a great outside WR and his mobility for the slot is just average, so I'm not sure there's an obvious path to FF relevance.
29. WR Terry McLaurin, Redskins - Does he deserve to be this far below Hardman/Campbell/Johnson? Maybe not. He has a similar strengths/weaknesses profile, being a speedster who is average or worse at every other facet of the position. He was a fairly high pick and he goes to a team without a lot of great WR options, so I think he's draftable at his ADP, but his film didn't inspire any real excitement or confidence here.

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54 minutes ago, reggio1 said:

Good list but AJ Brown is too high for me if you factor in his QB situation. 

It's a bad short-term fit in terms of offensive philosophy and QB, but on the other hand there's not much there besides Davis, who remains a little bit of an enigma.

Weak QBs often lean on their outlets and Brown can be a reliable option there for a year or two before the offense hopefully improves.

If you are drafting for instant impact then I can understand preferring someone like Montgomery, but if you are drafting for dynasty then I lean towards the guys who look like they have the best chance to become long-term contributors.

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Is it safe to say you don’t like Hockenson to ever perform on a Ertz or Kelce type of level? I don’t know about you but when looking at his tape he looked good but not as great as he is being touted at least from FF perspective. 

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Why 29? Seems so arbitrary. :D

Thanks for sharing. It is always nice to get lists that include some assessment along with the order. 

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35 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Why 29? Seems so arbitrary. :D

Thanks for sharing. It is always nice to get lists that include some assessment along with the order. 

I get that you're asking tongue-in-cheek, but I only rank players I consider draftable and I imagine that's what he's doing too.  I only do IDP dyno so my rookie bored's are a lot bigger than 29, but I'm in that range wrt offensive players in my 40 man leegs.  I obviously went deeper in my 50, but didn't draft any of those offensive players.  Back-end of that draft was all defense, by design.

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4 hours ago, reggio1 said:

Is it safe to say you don’t like Hockenson to ever perform on a Ertz or Kelce type of level? I don’t know about you but when looking at his tape he looked good but not as great as he is being touted at least from FF perspective. 

It's possible, but to justify a first round price tag he almost NEEDS to be that good. There's little margin for error when you draft a TE that high.

Then you also have to consider that you can get the likes of Warring/Knox/Sternberger much cheaper. Now I don't think any of those guys quite has the same ceiling, so I'm not saying they're better, but they are a lot cheaper, so if you don't think Hockenson is going to be a freak then why not just wait until the third round and take a chance on one of them?

You can often get TEs for pretty cheap. I got Hurst and Andrews late in a lot of leagues last year, and I don't think their ceiling is much lower than TJ's. Kelce, Ertz, Gronk, Graham, Witten, and many other good TEs would've been second round rookie picks or later in most drafts. I drafted Ebron very high in a bunch of leagues and even though he's been okay, it was a mistake. You just don't need to invest a top pick in a TE to get good prospects.

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2 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

Why 29? Seems so arbitrary. :D

Thanks for sharing. It is always nice to get lists that include some assessment along with the order. 

Usually I stop at 24 to cover 2 rounds in a 12 team league, but that tier went to 29 players, so I decided to extend the list and stop at the end of that tier.

Everybody else who isn't on this list is basically a flyer IMO, with the possible exception of people like Lock and Grier in QB-heavy formats.

I'm not high on the round 4 players (i.e. Hill, Butler, Love, Snell) or any other day three guys this year. I don't even really have a sleeper I like in that range.

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Good stuff EBF!

I was seeing something on NFL live yesterday talking about the fact that 7 defensive players were drafted in the top 10 of the 2019 draft which is a record according to them. The next most was 6 in the top 10 in 2005.

Now this could work both ways where the teams didn't think highly enough of the skill players to draft them that high or it could be that the defensive players were too good to pass up. I tend to think it is more the later case, combined with a very deep WR class that perhaps had teams more willing to wait on that position.

Just throwing that out there in regards to your assessment of this being a weak draft for fantasy players.

I think the WR overall is better than any of the recent groups since 2014.  I really think that is the key to approaching this draft class, sorting out the good WR from the bad.

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5 hours ago, EBF said:

It's possible, but to justify a first round price tag he almost NEEDS to be that good. There's little margin for error when you draft a TE that high.

Then you also have to consider that you can get the likes of Warring/Knox/Sternberger much cheaper. Now I don't think any of those guys quite has the same ceiling, so I'm not saying they're better, but they are a lot cheaper, so if you don't think Hockenson is going to be a freak then why not just wait until the third round and take a chance on one of them?

You can often get TEs for pretty cheap. I got Hurst and Andrews late in a lot of leagues last year, and I don't think their ceiling is much lower than TJ's. Kelce, Ertz, Gronk, Graham, Witten, and many other good TEs would've been second round rookie picks or later in most drafts. I drafted Ebron very high in a bunch of leagues and even though he's been okay, it was a mistake. You just don't need to invest a top pick in a TE to get good prospects.

I like Hockenson but didn't think he could be a top 3 fantasy TE, which I need. So I traded the 1.06 instead of taking Hockenson for OJ Howard. I do think Howard has the ability to become a top 3 TE.

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Small note, but on further reflection I think I have Damien Harris too high.

A lot of what I said still applies, but he has a murky immediate path to a featured role and his talent level is good, but not elite.

I think he belongs a tier lower than where I initially had him, closer to Singletary and Mattison.

All three are solid values in the second round of a rookie draft, but not appealing in the top 10-12 picks.

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@EBF - I found your view on JJAW interesting.

19. WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Eagles - I feel like I'm taking crazy pills with JJAW because I don't see how he's going to win in the NFL, but people seem to like him and he went high in the draft to a team with a good young QB. He has some of the worst movement skills of any WR taken in the top 100 this year. Everything is contested because he can't really run clean routes or separate. On the other hand, he's a great red zone threat and a consistent winner in jump ball situations. Ultimately, I think he's a day three talent with a modest ceiling, but...they took him in the 2nd, so they must see something they like here. I can'tignore the draft slot, but I'm passing at his ADP.

I can see a path where JJAW can win in the NFL given some of what has been published on his traits that he displays:

Why Stanford's JJ Arcega-Whiteside is a top-three wideout in the 2019 NFL Draft

JJ Arcega-Whiteside coveted for his contested-catch ability by NFL teams

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside Is NFL Draft's Biggest Hidden Gem

JJAW is lacking in some of the other athletic traits such as his testing in the three cone drill and in the 20 yard short shuttle, so he likely maxes out as an NFL #2 WR; however, with his size and contested-catch abilities, he could easily have a few seasons where he produces some solid TD production in red-zone packages.

Thoughts?

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@EBF - I know that you acknowledge JJAW has the contested catch traits and that he’s lacking in route-running and ability to separate, but it seems like you feel that you don’t see a path to the type of NFL production that the fantasy community needs to see from him. 

I don’t think he’s a sure thing by any means; however, I do see a path where he evolves into a short yardage and red zone type of specialist. Assuming that Wentz resumes his upward development trajectory, there could be a few seasons where he strings together some solid production including good touchdown totals.

The rookie rankings currently have JJAW as a mid to late second round pick which seems to be about right.

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21 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

I think people just like typing JJAW.  If his name was Melvin Smith I bet his stock would be way lower.

Only kinda joking.

For real.  JJAW?  More like JJAG

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2 hours ago, Faust said:

@EBF - I know that you acknowledge JJAW has the contested catch traits and that he’s lacking in route-running and ability to separate, but it seems like you feel that you don’t see a path to the type of NFL production that the fantasy community needs to see from him. 

I don’t think he’s a sure thing by any means; however, I do see a path where he evolves into a short yardage and red zone type of specialist. Assuming that Wentz resumes his upward development trajectory, there could be a few seasons where he strings together some solid production including good touchdown totals.

The rookie rankings currently have JJAW as a mid to late second round pick which seems to be about right.

The PFF article you linked was interesting. The writer argued that it's hard to identify which WRs will succeed because there's seemingly no common ground between them. For example, what do Tyreek Hill and JuJu Smith-Schuster really have in common? They have totally different body types and play styles.

Playing a lot of leagues over the years, you notice that different owners value different traits. Some guys love speed and just draft teams like they're building a track relay. When it comes to WRs, others are enamored with height and jump ball skills. Other guys might favor an explosive YPR average in college in conjunction with combine traits. The writer of that particular piece you linked about JJAW said the top two things he looks for are A.) ball skills and B.) a "trump card". 

This is where my philosophy differs from his. The first thing I look at when I evaluate WRs (and it largely applies to RBs and TEs too) is what I would just loosely call mobility or movement skills. I think there are two dimensions to this: explosiveness and fluidity. Explosiveness is easy to measure. You see it in 40 times, vertical leap, and the broad jump. However, not all explosive athletes are fluid. DK Metcalf is explosive, but his movement on the field is sub par, which negates a lot of those traits. Likewise, not all fluid athletes are explosive. Kenny Lawler was a great WR, but simply didn't have enough juice to make it work in the NFL. The best NFL WRs are usually strong in both facets, but I would say fluidity is more important than explosiveness because there are productive WRs with poor explosiveness metrics (i.e. Allen, Boldin) whereas there are very few who win with sheer burst unless they can also move well.

Go down the list of top NFL WRs and almost all of them are fluid athletes with efficient movements in their routes and in space. It's true for the slow possession guys like Keenan Allen, the smurfs like Tyreek Hill and TY Hilton, the thin route technicians like AJ Green and Reggie Wayne, and the big bodies like Demaryius and Fitzgerald. I could write a lot more on this topic, but this is essentially why I like Deebo and don't like JJAW. Deebo is great in space and very athletic. Very good movement. JJAW is a bit stiff and rigid, which means he's draped with coverage constantly. Yea, he's good in those contested situations, but that also exposes the bigger issue: he struggles mightily to create space. As the writer of the PFF piece suggested, that might become a much bigger issue on Sundays. There are guys like Evans and Jeffery who have done okay with size and just okay mobility, but then you have busts like Dobson and Treadwell that illustrate the risk of this type of player. 

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When I watched videos of Arcega-Whiteside he didn't seem particularly bad at getting separation.

He ran a lot of routes (especially in the red zone) which were not designed for separation, and were instead designed for body positioning and contested catches. A lot of those plays show up on his highlight videos, since he's unusually good at them and a bunch of them score TDs or look impressive. But they don't tell us much about his separation ability, since that wasn't what the play called for.

In his game videos I did see a number of plays where he was able to create some space, moreso than some other WRs (like N'Keal Harry).

This is just based on casual observation, though. I don't grind tape the way that some evaluators do.

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3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

I think people just like typing JJAW.  If his name was Melvin Smith I bet his stock would be way lower.

Only kinda joking.

I think people type JJAW because it's hard to spell his name but also because they don't want to get the song caught in their head

Dynasty. Drafting mediocrity. But it's just the price i pay. Fantasy is calling me. Checking out my eagles prize... Arcega Whiteside 

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One trait I value highly in WRs is catching. I've learned over the years that guys who enter the NFL with suspect hands NEVER seem to get better and this eventually is a deal breaker for them on most teams unless they have truly exceptional after the catch skills.  

After that I really value guys who will fight and compete for balls--aggressive rather than passive in tracking and going up after the ball.  

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Interesting to revisit previous years:

2016

2017

2018

Some takes have aged better than others. I whiffed on M Thomas, Kamara, Hunt, and probably Golladay. I was too high on Treadwell, though in hindsight that whole first round of WRs was a graveyard. I like my takes on people like JuJu, Zay Jones, Drake, and Kenneth Dixon. If you go back further, I had K White > Gurley + Cooper, which is pretty brutal. I know I wasn't nearly as high enough on Beckham either. Anyway, live and learn. The JuJu hit buoyed me in a lot of leagues, as did grabbing Tyreek as a preemptive waiver guy. Getting premium assets for non-premium prices is what can really elevate team. Kamara owners can relate. I ended up with a lot of Wentz and Mahomes despite lukewarm writeups because both guys consistently fell to a great value range in my rookie drafts.

As always, the most important thing is not to nail every evaluation, but rather to make sure the guys you draft are good value. By default you only get one pick per round and if the guys you take have a solid success rate then it doesn't really matter who else you missed out.

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18 hours ago, ZWK said:

When I watched videos of Arcega-Whiteside he didn't seem particularly bad at getting separation.

He ran a lot of routes (especially in the red zone) which were not designed for separation, and were instead designed for body positioning and contested catches. A lot of those plays show up on his highlight videos, since he's unusually good at them and a bunch of them score TDs or look impressive. But they don't tell us much about his separation ability, since that wasn't what the play called for.

His body type is on the high end of the BMI scale for a WR, in the same ballpark as people like Fitzgerald, Crabtree, JuJu, Dez, and Vincent Jackson. I don't think he is as mobile or sudden as that group. You can cherry pick examples of any player failing because nobody is dominant on every snap, but here's an example of the "bad" with JJAW:

https://youtu.be/U95aTaNvbHs?t=229

His initial burst doesn't threaten the corner and then he doesn't really drive out of his break at the top of the route to create separation. The pass arrives too late from the QB and that's not JJAW's fault, but you can maybe see glimmers of what I'm talking about here. If you watch two of the routes I linked back in my assesment of JuJu in 2017, he just seems to be a little bit smoother and faster in these situations. Not only does he catch the ball, but he also transitions to running immediately:

https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=1m52s

https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=5m46s

A similar type of player who was deceptively quick was Michael Crabtree. He could generate a lot of explosion off of one plant, as you see here:

https://youtu.be/Fvj87RQE6dE?t=117

He was very efficient at start-stop stuff:

https://youtu.be/Fvj87RQE6dE?t=384

And once he caught the ball, he instantly transitioned into RB-mode.

https://youtu.be/Fvj87RQE6dE?t=405

You can definitely find examples of JJAW shedding a defender on a slant or hitch, but in general I think his movement lacks the suddenness and burst of these players. That's acceptable to a point because even though his body type is similar on paper, he's a different style of WR. He's what I call a "catch-and-fall" WR whereas those guys are catch-and-run specialists. A better analogue for him would probably be someone like Alshon Jeffery or Mike Evans, two guys who win with bulk, hands, and ball skills rather than with athleticism. That's the target JJAW is aiming at, but I worry about WRs who lack crisp movement because even players like AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, and TY Hilton who have few things in common stylistically are unified in the sense of having excellent overall movement relative to their size.

The scouting reports echo some of what I think I'm seeing in his clips. Here's a snippet from NFL.com's take:

 

- Struggles to free himself from physical press corners

- Will need to work on release and counters for next level

- Excessive stutter-stepping pre-release

- May need alignment or pre-snap movement to free him vs certain matchups

- Plays with some hip tightness

- Takes additional time to sink, settle and open on comebacks

 

That's a lot of different bullet points, but IMO they are all connected to the same root issue: his lower body movement lacks precision and fluidity.

Edited by EBF
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No Hakeem Butler?

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Butler was the 14th WR drafted and a 4th round pick (albeit the earliest one possible). The NFL let him fall to pick 103 in the draft and that's basically their way of saying, "We don't think this guy is very good." They get it wrong sometimes, but objectively any player who slips that low starts to look like a longshot. If I were to move him up into this list then I would have to see something in his clips that makes me think the NFL got their evaluation wrong.

I'm not really sold on the overall package though. At first glance, he seems to possess "ideal size" at 6'5" 227, but his body type is shaded more towards people like AJ Green and Reggie Wayne than people like Larry Fitzgerald and Vincent Jackson in terms of thickness. He is not actually a powerful WR. He doesn't have a strong or athletic base. He is a finesse WR without the finesse. He is straight-line explosive, but otherwise lacks mobility. He runs sloppy, deliberate routes and isn't a threat to create space with suddenness or agility. He will wear coverage like an extra jacket in the NFL and his hands aren't that great to boot.

Some influential voices in the draftnik community have hyped him up and maybe that's why people are reaching for him in my drafts (he usually goes top 12-15), but coming to this party late without having developed many strong biases over the course of the CFB season (since I barely paid attention until after the draft), I don't see what the hype is about. Typical day three project with a lot of warts. One scouting report compared him to Danario Alexander and maybe his sheer length/speed combo will make him a danger man on vertical routes, but people tout him like the second coming of Josh Gordon and I don't really see it. I think he's just a reckless gamble at ADP.

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It's just another piece of information. It's not meant to be some magic bullet, but it can help you understand what a player does.

For example, some people said Crabtree and JuJu were too slow to thrive in the NFL. Neither guy has great speed, but both are on the high end of the BMI scale for a WR, landing in the 28+ range along with people like Fitzgerald, Dez, Hopkins, and VJax. History has shown us that 4.5 speed is fine for this type of WR, so it's actually not a big concern.

Another example is MJD. Conventional wisdom when he was drafted was that he was a COOP back. He typically fell to the 2nd round of rookie drafts because people didn't view him as a potential every down guy. His weight made him look undersized, but from a BMI standpoint he's actually near the top of the RB spectrum. When you combine that with his 4.39 40 time and electric film, you have a very freaky and special athlete. If you understand what BMI says about a player, you're more likely to recognize something like that.

It's relevant to Butler because people think of him as a "big" WR. He's tall and his weight looks high in a vacuum, but he's actually a bit light for how tall he is, and that probably has consequences with regards to how he'll need to win in the NFL. AJ Brown and Deebo are actually a lot "bigger" than him in terms of BMI and strength, and it translates to much better play strength and a differrent playing style. Butler is actually more like a scaled up Reggie Wayne than another Fitzgerald type, but a vastly inferior WR in every way.

Like I said, it's not a magic bullet and it's not meant to be, but it helps me file players into types and can suggest parallels among NFL successes and failures. A good general rule is that leaner players need to compensate with superior mobility and explosiveness whereas heavier players can get away with less, but there's a little more to it than that.

Edited by EBF

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5 hours ago, EBF said:

At first glance, he seems to possess "ideal size" at 6'5" 227, but his body type is shaded more towards people like AJ Green and Reggie Wayne than people like Larry Fitzgerald and Vincent Jackson in terms of thickness.

Butler's BMI is basically the same as Marques Colston NO, Michael Thomas NO, Kenny Golladay DET, or Mike Williams LAC. Not exactly an AJ Green build.

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I think it would be inappropriate to not factor in his actual draft day fall.  No matter how it pans out in the long run, those that pick him before the other receiver Arizona took 41 picks sooner are just plain wrong.  But once we get into round 3?  I see the justification for propping Butler above all of them.  Given the Steelers track record with receiver I am still having a hard time on Diontae Johnson vs. Butler.  The rest?  Gimme Butler.

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On ‎2019‎/‎05‎/‎09 at 12:06 AM, EBF said:

FIRST TIER

1. RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - The clear #1 for me. He didn't break a lot of long runs in college and hasn't shown that he can handle a full workload, but he fits the mold of what works in the NFL. A complete three down back with quickness, power, speed, and versatility. Zeke-lite.

Hey EBF,

Where would you slot Josh Jacobs in as far as overall dynasty RB rankings if you had to today?

Could you go into further detail player analysis on Josh as to explain why what you saw on film cemented him as the clear #1 fantasy prospect in this draft?

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9 hours ago, EBF said:

Like I said, it's not a magic bullet and it's not meant to be, but it helps me file players into types and can suggest parallels among NFL successes and failures. A good general rule is that leaner players need to compensate with superior mobility and explosiveness whereas heavier players can get away with less, but there's a little more to it than that.

Im not convinced bmi makes any difference at all. I haven't seen any convincing emperical evidence either way. Only a bunch of anecdotes. 

Leveon Bell serves as an apposing anecdote. Tomlin asked him to lose weight following his rookie year, and well you know the results. A lighter person will have more suddenness and all that, but also lower bmi.

As for butler, he has the longest arms ever for a wr at the combine. Long and lanky. A short stubby guy would have higher bmi, but I'd rather have the longer arms.

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10 hours ago, ZWK said:

Butler's BMI is basically the same as Marques Colston NO, Michael Thomas NO, Kenny Golladay DET, or Mike Williams LAC. Not exactly an AJ Green build.

Those guys aren't necessarily the big/strong type either.

The bigger concern for Butler is that he doesn't move very well unless it's a sprint.

Nobody is going to confuse his route running for Colston or Thomas.

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56 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Im not convinced bmi makes any difference at all. I haven't seen any convincing emperical evidence either way. Only a bunch of anecdotes. 

Leveon Bell serves as an apposing anecdote. Tomlin asked him to lose weight following his rookie year, and well you know the results. A lighter person will have more suddenness and all that, but also lower bmi.

As for butler, he has the longest arms ever for a wr at the combine. Long and lanky. A short stubby guy would have higher bmi, but I'd rather have the longer arms.

I don't really know what you're getting at here with the Bell comment. Nobody said bigger automatically = better.

The point with Butler/BMI is that people tend to think of tall WRs as "big" even if their weight is actually low for their height.

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2 hours ago, ty247 said:

Hey EBF,

Where would you slot Josh Jacobs in as far as overall dynasty RB rankings if you had to today?

Could you go into further detail player analysis on Josh as to explain why what you saw on film cemented him as the clear #1 fantasy prospect in this draft?

In dynasty I would take Barkley, CMC, Elliott, Mixon, Kamara, and Chubb ahead of him. Gurley's injury worries me some, as I don't know what you're getting. Gordon, DJ, and Bell have a good short term outlook, but will decay quickly. I'd take Jacobs over the likes of Cook, Conner, Michel, Kerryon, Guice, and probably Fournette. So somewhere between RB7-RB11 sounds about right.

As for the rookie draft, this is a weak draft class. If you don't think Jacobs is the #1 guy then you have to put somebody else there. I couldn't justify Montgomery or Sanders that high. The WRs have their own share of question marks. I can see somebody going Harry over Jacobs if they really want a WR, but generally speaking there's no other viable candidate.

With Jacobs, the appeal is the overall package. He's a viable weapon as a receiver and that's very important in FF. Purely as a runner, he's not spectacular. I think he shades more towards Ingram/Benson than Peterson/Barkley. However, there are no glaring weaknesses. He has a sturdy frame with decent enough speed and more quickness than the average thumper. These aren't jaw-dropping plays, but you can see some of his cutting ability:

https://youtu.be/xxv8VPH7JGQ?t=24

https://youtu.be/e_ikQlWcv9g?t=83

Big backs who have speed, power, balance, hands, and a little bit of east-west cutting ability usually do well in the NFL. Jacobs seems like a safe bet to become a 250+ touch RB who can handle a high volume of carries and add value catching passes. He may be a modest YPC guy in the NFL because his speed/big play skills are ordinary, but he seems like a safe pick with a pretty good upside.

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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Im not convinced bmi makes any difference at all. I haven't seen any convincing emperical evidence either way. Only a bunch of anecdotes. 

Leveon Bell serves as an apposing anecdote. Tomlin asked him to lose weight following his rookie year, and well you know the results. A lighter person will have more suddenness and all that, but also lower bmi.

As for butler, he has the longest arms ever for a wr at the combine. Long and lanky. A short stubby guy would have higher bmi, but I'd rather have the longer arms.

It doesn't, it is junk science that has no proven statistical validity to success in the NFL. It is generally used to reverse engineer an argument for a player someone already likes or to discredit a player they don't care for - it is usually a rationalization for a decision already made.

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Mecole Hardman and Butler are the hardest WRs for me to figure out. I'm by no means a pro and don't even watch that much college football, but seems guys are all over the map with these 2. I've seen some that put them both crazy high (top 3-5 WRs) and some that wouldn't touch in the top 12 or later. I've read articles that make the case they are 2 of the best prospects and other articles that they are on DO NOT DRAFT lists. Ughhh. Does anyone have a crystal ball that can tell the future, say 4-9 months from now? 

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5 hours ago, EBF said:

I don't really know what you're getting at here with the Bell comment. Nobody said bigger automatically = better.

The point with Butler/BMI is that people tend to think of tall WRs as "big" even if their weight is actually low for their height.

You've implied high bmi is better in a lot of your posts. Whether this means its automatically better, idk, I'm just saying it makes no difference at all. Well, I haven't seen any evidence of it; and it isnt self evident to me. I'm not seeing how shorter and fatter is better than taller and skinnier. 

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22 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

You've implied high bmi is better in a lot of your posts. Whether this means its automatically better, idk, I'm just saying it makes no difference at all. Well, I haven't seen any evidence of it; and it isnt self evident to me. I'm not seeing how shorter and fatter is better than taller and skinnier. 

All else being equal, a player who is bigger and stronger than another player will do better.

It's part of what makes Saquon Barkley and Andre Johnson so special. Little man mobility trapped in a superhero frame.

In my experience, the people most critical of incorporating BMI into player evaluations tend to be those who haven't looked deeply into metrics, yet still think their opinion on the topic means something. For people who like to crunch numbers and try to draw up historical comparisons based on combine info and stats, it can be a useful piece of information. That's all it really is. Nobody said it's a magic bullet. It's just another data point to weigh along with everything else.

 

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1 minute ago, EBF said:

In my experience, the people most critical of incorporating BMI into player evaluations tend to be those who haven't looked deeply into metrics, yet still think their opinion on the topic means something. For people who like to crunch numbers and try to draw up historical comparisons based on combine info and stats, it can be a useful piece of information. 

When you crunch the numbers and find some correlation, I'm all ears. For now all you have are some historical comparisons, aka anecdotes. 

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28 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

When you crunch the numbers and find some correlation, I'm all ears. For now all you have are some historical comparisons, aka anecdotes. 

Nobody is saying it's completely predictive though. You seem to be missing that.

Think of it this way: If you we were drawing up the dream create-a-player at WR, he would probably be 6'3"+. Moss, Fitzgerald, Calvin, Julio, and many other recent greats have been tall. Height is usually considered a positive at WR.

Does this mean that a tall WR is automatically better than a short WR or that height guarantees success? Obviously not. Limas Sweed and Justin Hunter were tall, and they were busts. TY Hilton and Tyreek Hill are short, and they've been great.

Height is something that you consider when you're looking at a WR prospect, but it's only one variable in an ocean of information. A tall WR who is terrible in many other important facets of the game isn't going to have a better career than a short WR who is vastly more talented in every other way. This doesn't mean that height is irrelevant or not worth considering.

It is the same idea for BMI. It is just a small piece of information that helps you understand a prospect. Nobody says it's some magic crystal ball to help you crush your draft, so I'm not sure why people are arguing as if that's the case. You might as well say, "I don't think we should talk about height until we see some evidence that it's predictive." It's largely missing the point.

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3 minutes ago, EBF said:

Nobody is saying it's completely predictive though. You seem to be missing that.

Think of it this way: If you we were drawing up the dream create-a-player at WR, he would probably be 6'3"+. Moss, Fitzgerald, Calvin, Julio, and many other recent greats have been tall. Height is usually considered a positive at WR.

Does this mean that a tall WR is automatically better than a short WR or that height guarantees success? Obviously not. Limas Sweed and Justin Hunter were tall, and they were busts. TY Hilton and Tyreek Hill are short, and they've been great.

Height is something that you consider when you're looking at a WR prospect, but it's only one variable in an ocean of information. A tall WR who is terrible in many other important facets of the game isn't going to have a better career than a short WR who is vastly more talented in every other way. This doesn't mean that height is irrelevant or not worth considering.

It is the same idea for BMI. It is just a small piece of information that helps you understand a prospect. Nobody says it's some magic crystal ball to help you crush your draft, so I'm not sure why people are arguing as if that's the case. You might as well say, "I don't think we should talk about height until we see some evidence that it's predictive." It's largely missing the point.

It's pretty obvious that height is predictive. Same goes for weight, 40 time, arm length, short shuttle ect. I dont need any evidence to prove this, its self evident. I know how these apply on a football field.

It is not obvious that mass devided by height squared makes any difference. How does being stocky help you get open and catch a football?

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Just now, cloppbeast said:

It's pretty obvious that height is predictive. Same goes for weight, 40 time, arm length, short shuttle ect. I dont need any evidence to prove this, its self evident. I know how these apply on a football field.

It is not obvious that mass devided by height squared makes any difference. How does being stocky help you get open and catch a football?

So you don't understand how size and strength are valuable in football?

What sport have you been watching all these years?

Imagine two versions of Larry Fitzgerald that are exactly the same, except one weighs 198 instead of 218.

Which would be tougher to jam? Which would be tougher to cover on a contested catch? Which would be tougher to tackle?

Imagine two versions of Saquon Barkley that are the exact same, except one weighs 203 instead of 233.

Which would be tougher to tackle?

All else being equal (maybe this is the point you are missing), obviously you want the bigger and stronger player.

 

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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

When you crunch the numbers and find some correlation, I'm all ears. For now all you have are some historical comparisons, aka anecdotes. 

Don't hold your breath waiting on that. He has never been able to do that in the past, he just "knows" it is the truth and factual.  I doubt he suddenly has the probative figures now to back it up.

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50 minutes ago, EBF said:

So you don't understand how size and strength are valuable in football?

What sport have you been watching all these years?

Imagine two versions of Larry Fitzgerald that are exactly the same, except one weighs 198 instead of 218.

Which would be tougher to jam? Which would be tougher to cover on a contested catch? Which would be tougher to tackle?

Imagine two versions of Saquon Barkley that are the exact same, except one weighs 203 instead of 233.

Which would be tougher to tackle?

All else being equal (maybe this is the point you are missing), obviously you want the bigger and stronger player.

 

Bmi stands for body mass index not bigger and stronger.  

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9 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

Im not convinced bmi makes any difference at all. I haven't seen any convincing emperical evidence either way. Only a bunch of anecdotes. 

Leveon Bell serves as an apposing anecdote. Tomlin asked him to lose weight following his rookie year, and well you know the results. A lighter person will have more suddenness and all that, but also lower bmi.

As for butler, he has the longest arms ever for a wr at the combine. Long and lanky. A short stubby guy would have higher bmi, but I'd rather have the longer arms.

Like any other metric you can find some thresholds where you have almost zero success rate of players below a certain BMI and although I haven't really seen the other end of this, that is likely also true, a player over a certain threshold of BMI has almost no success.

There is a lot of grey area in between.

I have heard some talk of using BMI as a way of partitioning WR into groups and looking at their success that way. I haven't seen this in detail to offer an opinion, but some seem to think they can (or have) unlocked something is regards to WR within a specific height and weights, as far as them being successful or not, for their body type.

To me statistics for football are already subject to the issue of small sample size. When you partition players into even more discrete groups, this increases that problem.

Anyhow BMI like any other metric can be used to partition players into certain groups, and talking about that can be a way to describe a player by who they may be physically similar to.

FWIW EBF is pretty high on Marquise Brown who is below the BMI threshold.

:shrigs: Cordarralle Patterson has a very similar build to Adrian Peterson. Doesn't mean they are similar players at all.

As for Butler, I disagree with most of what EBF is saying about him. It makes me wonder how much he has watched Butler because he does do all of the things EBF is saying he can't do. Such as make people miss after the catch and gain YAC. I think he is a better player than EBF is giving him credit for. I do agree with him about some things though. He needs to work on his route running. He is not that quick and sudden out of his breaks (although there are some examples of him doing that well)  I could say that about almost every rookie WR of all time though. Its rare for a WR to come in that refined with their techniques.

The most compelling argument against Butler is his draft position. There were a lot of WR who I do not think particularly highly of who were drafted ahead of him.

He isn't Ramses Barden though. Butler can actually play. He has been very inconsistent however and coaches do not like that.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

As for Butler, I disagree with most of what EBF is saying about him. It makes me wonder how much he has watched Butler because he does do all of the things EBF is saying he can't do. Such as make people miss after the catch and gain YAC. I think he is a better player than EBF is giving him credit for. I do agree with him about some things though. He needs to work on his route running. He is not that quick and sudden out of his breaks (although there are some examples of him doing that well)  I could say that about almost every rookie WR of all time though. Its rare for a WR to come in that refined with their techniques.

This ties back into the JJAW discussion a bit earlier, as it's the same idea.

The #1 thing I look for when I'm evaluating WRs is athleticism and movement. People talk about route running technique, but I question how much of running precise routes is learnable and how much of it is simply innate athleticism. Just like there are RBs who are physically incapable of making sharp cuts at full speed, so too it seems there are WRs who innately have less ability to move smoothly and explode out of their breaks.

This is one reason why I was relatively optimistic about Allen Robinson even though he had a less-than-impressive 4.60 40 time. In addition to having good jump ball skills, he was a player with elite body control and plant-and-drive quickness, which showed up in his open field running and in his routes.

Here is an example of a nice break: https://youtu.be/5Xm3MFgJaD4?t=81

And here's an example of some of his RAC stuff: https://youtu.be/K-cuNKb4Kjk?t=130

Here's an example from Michael Thomas with a sharp break and instant transition to RAC: https://youtu.be/Mzzpx4WQmb8?t=35

Two relevant plays from JuJu that I linked above:

https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=1m52s

https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=5m46s

Now, I'm cherry-picking good reps, but what all these plays show is suddenness, efficient movement with a minimum of wasted motion, and the ability to generate a lot of separation with 1-2 simple moves.

Contrast that with some plays by Butler.

Play #1: https://youtu.be/3TuLxb9rDXE?t=162

Play #2 (very late throw by QB, but slow route too): https://youtu.be/3TuLxb9rDXE?t=256

Play #3: https://youtu.be/QSNDpJaaYVE?t=401

Play #4 (this is a lot better): https://youtu.be/3TuLxb9rDXE?t=309

This is a little unfair to Butler because I've picked some of his worst reps. He does have some better reps than this and some games such as the Iowa game where he did a little bit better at getting open. Sometimes he was victimized by poor QB play as well, but generally I think his movement is below the level that you want. For a 4.49 guy, he climbs the ladder very slowly and doesn't threaten anyone with speed off the line. His speed is very built up. He can stop and turn pretty quickly, but doesn't explode out of his breaks and lacks a bit of suddenness in his routes. And although he is a tall guy, he has a wispy frame without great functional base strength. He's really more of a finesse player in style, like a Sidney Rice or AJ Green, but he doesn't have anywhere near the body control/ball skills.

So how does he win on Sundays? His movement isn't that good. He will get swallowed up on a lot of short routes and while his long speed is good, it's not elite and teams will try to take that away. He has height and length, but doesn't have elite possession/contested skills to fully capitalize on that. I don't seen an obvious path to dominance unless he improves considerably.

Edited by EBF

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Yes I know what you are saying about the suddenness of the receivers breaks when they are changing direction. I watch a lot of Stefon Diggs.

Butler is a huge guy so this is something I don't think he can do as well as MT or JuJu. I think he does it better than JJAW though.

Go to the 2:19 mark of Butlers game against Oklahoma and tell me what you see here?

In that clip there are a couple more examples of Butler being able to get YAC. Poor tackling? Of course.

He is such a big target for a defender to get a piece of, I do think he is at somewhat of a disadvantage there compared to players like Diggs. at least as far as being able to make a tackler miss.

I have a problem with his hands more than how he runs routes. I think he has inconsistent hand technique and maybe he could improve in that way. A lot of his drops are when he is getting contact from defenders, but some of them are just on him. They must see that in practice and so on too. I think this is the biggest concern about Butler, and a large part of the reason why he lasted as long as he did in the draft.

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