What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Of Lillies & Remains - A One Year Hiatus/A Maximum Ripoff/D&D Dumb Down Westeros/Happy Birfday Sid Vish *** An Honorable Travers *** (1 Viewer)

she better kills it, pops is laying out a nice chunk o'change for this artsy edumicational workshop performance thingy  :D  (but, yeah, she's got boatloads of musical/dance chops, i expect top billing).
😎👍 

But, with all that light, that you been catch'n all these years - you should have that change in yer sock drawer by now.

must be Yankees or, even worse, revenuers ... those miserable bastids❗
Don't get me started on revenuers!!!!!!

 
😎👍 

But, with all that light, that you been catch'n all these years - you should have that change in yer sock drawer by now.

this is true, Mox ... but as a lifelong pony player the only thing i'm interested in is the ol' R.O.I. - don't mind plunking if we get max dividends - i'm as excited about the opportunity as she is.

Don't get me started on revenuers!!!!!!

what, you runnin' a still there, Slappy?  save sime vintage 2018 for me Keeneland invasion  :suds:

 
23 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:
😎👍 

But, with all that light, that you been catch'n all these years - you should have that change in yer sock drawer by now.

this is true, Mox ... but as a lifelong pony player the only thing i'm interested in is the ol' R.O.I. - don't mind plunking if we get max dividends -...
Heyo - I'm pretty focused on the ROI meself - but, I fail to see the relevance here...tho, I plunk it out daily.

 
Heyo - I'm pretty focused on the ROI meself - but, I fail to see the relevance here...tho, I plunk it out daily.
see, now that's what differentiates me from mostuh the headz up on here ... i do not/have never/prolly never will partake in the snacks de Cannabis ... dunno, man - i'm still a prodiguous drinker, but backnaday i was a pure ####### speed freek/snowblower ... never vibed to the appeal of the nod squad  :shrug:

but, hey, to each they own - i begrudge no human the pursuit of their particular yaya's.

 
I can't shake the nagging suspicion that Alwaysmining is going to factor in this race.  I don't have any analytics to back that up, but I can't shake it.

I agree 100% with OTB that Signalman and Owendale are going to be stretch running - I don't know that either can win, but I'll definitely be using them underneath in exotics.

 
see, now that's what differentiates me from mostuh the headz up on here ... i do not/have never/prolly never will partake in the snacks de Cannabis ... dunno, man - i'm still a prodiguous drinker, but backnaday i was a pure ####### speed freek/snowblower ... never vibed to the appeal of the nod squad  :shrug:

but, hey, to each they own - i begrudge no human the pursuit of their particular yaya's.
It's all about one's natural baseline body chemistry and where one wants to go with it, imo.

Being bipolar, much of my life I felt like I was blow'n Buffalo after a blizzard - totally sober.

Thus, smoke levels me out & calms my edge.

You, being natural naturally slow and sloth-minded...well - I understand...and respect.

I like yer yaya's too!

 
I can't shake the nagging suspicion that Alwaysmining is going to factor in this race.  I don't have any analytics to back that up, but I can't shake it.

I agree 100% with OTB that Signalman and Owendale are going to be stretch running - I don't know that either can win, but I'll definitely be using them underneath in exotics.
the overwhelming class up in here comes from Improbable, with the other 2 Derby vets right behind ... was the last new shooter win Rachel Alex in '07? (which made it a rare back to back, with Bernardini gigging in '06)  

how much did the slop take outta them? Improbale did well to clunk up for back end of the super - Will to Win was the centerpiece/hero of the Max Sec drift ... Win3 managed a middlin' 8th, iirc. 

they are the class, no doubt - but not so imposing that they can't be had ... a trifecta of new shooters will pay a bundle.  i'm gonna dig deeper to find a way to toss Improbable, but that's gonna take a leap of faith.  

 
the overwhelming class up in here comes from Improbable, with the other 2 Derby vets right behind ... was the last new shooter win Rachel Alex in '07? (which made it a rare back to back, with Bernardini gigging in '06)  

how much did the slop take outta them? Improbale did well to clunk up for back end of the super - Will to Win was the centerpiece/hero of the Max Sec drift ... Win3 managed a middlin' 8th, iirc. 

they are the class, no doubt - but not so imposing that they can't be had ... a trifecta of new shooters will pay a bundle.  i'm gonna dig deeper to find a way to toss Improbable, but that's gonna take a leap of faith.  
Did Improbable continue his habit of looking toward the grandstand during his stretch run in the Derby?  I was watching for it (I faded him) but didn't notice it - tough to see with all the horses out there.

 
Did Improbable continue his habit of looking toward the grandstand during his stretch run in the Derby?  I was watching for it (I faded him) but didn't notice it - tough to see with all the horses out there.
yeah, haven't seen an ISO on his Derby run yet ... things got awfully muddled what with the bumper cars, rain, etc - i know Game Winner ran the best Trakus race, covered a ton of ground to hit 6th place ... Improbable was a great fade, but i don't think he embarrassed himself. 

Alwaysmining is certainly tuned up, agreed ... though he toyed with that Tesio field, he did get a rating lesson, i believe he has had a tendency to be a tad rank - which begs the question of are they gonna have him attend an early pace that figures to be hotter than his last at Laurel? - forecast is still calling for warm and sunny, which will give us a fast surface for this lot.  

 
yeah, haven't seen an ISO on his Derby run yet ... things got awfully muddled what with the bumper cars, rain, etc - i know Game Winner ran the best Trakus race, covered a ton of ground to hit 6th place ... Improbable was a great fade, but i don't think he embarrassed himself. 

Alwaysmining is certainly tuned up, agreed ... though he toyed with that Tesio field, he did get a rating lesson, i believe he has had a tendency to be a tad rank - which begs the question of are they gonna have him attend an early pace that figures to be hotter than his last at Laurel? - forecast is still calling for warm and sunny, which will give us a fast surface for this lot.  
I was heavy on Game Winner along with Max as keys on top.  One of those races where you feel like you 'capped it pretty well and have ####-all to show for it except post-race analysis that no one wants to hear.  :lol:

 
I was heavy on Game Winner along with Max as keys on top.  One of those races where you feel like you 'capped it pretty well and have ####-all to show for it except post-race analysis that no one wants to hear.  :lol:
ooooooh, man was i loving GW as the week wore on - my buddy who i always 'cap with auto tossed him, even though he's a Baffert junkie - he also scoffed at Max for 7 straight days, calling him a Gulfstream bias mirage, but, i digress (though, in the final analysis, that pr1ck was right  :D

i tried hashing my strategy out with my neighbor after all of my histrionics died down ... i was still ####faced as #### all, and the kid was obviously humoring me, but ... i could tell he was wishing for a wall between our yards more than Trump pines for his - and i'm pretry sure after i slurred MASSHIMYMMM SEHKOOORITY for the 100th time he would've coughed up the 4 billion to build it   :lmao:

 
War of Will only lost by 4.5 despite the traffic problems. Good shot to at least hit the board?
also impressive that he bagged that trip from the farthest inside gate ... he looked to have something left prior to the brush with MS, but, if memory serves, the jock himself allowed that WoW was trending in the opposite direction in his opinion - anyone? 

 
@Leroy Hoard - i couldn't find those quotes from the jock, matter of fact, Gaf was too busy spewing about how Saez (freshly suspended for 15 days, btw) was like drunk driver on MS - Casse, as well ... they were both hot as hell about what WoW endured.  

however, Beyer  has a great take on it, he's of the mindset i misappropriated to Gaf - good read on this whole mess.  

 
early skim of the Bris PPs - only 2 have ever cracked a c-note (Derby triers Improbable & Win3)

 quickies on some of the new shooters ... 

Warriors Charge is gonna be sent, BSFs climbing impressively - connections ponied up the supplemental 150k to put him in the gate - last couple works show nice shape. does Javi dig playing rabbit? won last 2 on the front.

Anothertwistafate been consistent high 90s last 3 (though declining in each), drilled a sharp last work - gets Ortiz, as Javi jumped to the above. disappointing last out behind Owendale, who fanned 6 wide down the stretch settling for 8th in the Risen Star.

Alwaysmining  bagged the Tesio as an overwhelming favorite - wasn't overly impressive - dusted this glorified work by 7+ ... tuneup to school this cat on rating just a bit - has won 6 in a row, is working very well, has been flirting with 100 consistently.

Signalman has disappointed since his score in the KJGC as a 2 yr old, but hoping he races back to that form - laid off a crisp pace, made a middle inside move, dealt with traffic nicely, and fended off a stretch challenge ... if the pace cooks on Saturday this cat figures to be picking 'em up late.  ran his best fig in the BC Juvey, rallying from 10th to bag show dough.

Owendale turned in a career best effort his last out, coming 4 wide out the clouds and passing a handful of cement shoed onlookers to draw away nicely in the Lex - last work was fantastic, loved the seasoning at Keeneland, showing he has the form to push button a solid move  around traffic ... Bridgmohan was chucked after an underwhelming Risen Star, now Geroux stays in the irons after piloting brilliantly for the Lex ... trainer Cox also has expected pacesetter Warriors Charge going ... if he cooks the front you can damn sure expect his stablemate to be mowing through some horse flesh with ease.
bumping to fresh page, post draw is Wednesday at 5 ... best chance for chaos is Warriors Charge  being fit ... need to see him flying in (at most) :23/:46 splits on a fast surface to really spice this baby up. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
@Leroy Hoard - i couldn't find those quotes from the jock, matter of fact, Gaf was too busy spewing about how Saez (freshly suspended for 15 days, btw) was like drunk driver on MS - Casse, as well ... they were both hot as hell about what WoW endured.  

however, Beyer  has a great take on it, he's of the mindset i misappropriated to Gaf - good read on this whole mess.  
Beyer obviously has seen a few thousand more races than I, so I will go along with that. It really is a good way to settle these infractions > would have the 2nd horse won otherwise. 

 
Beyer obviously has seen a few thousand more races than I, so I will go along with that. It really is a good way to settle these infractions > would have the 2nd horse won otherwise. 
i like how he spoke to the fact that WoW steadied, gathered, then had plenty of real estate to run down Max, but he just couldn't ... Max was much the best, WoW had no shot, contact or not. 

now, Preakness is another story for this one ... dunno 'bout the redemption shtick, because horsies don't know from that kinda facacta notion, but the connections sure do want it. BAD.  

maybe their rancor clouds the strategy ... gotta have WoW out the money to cash big in this mutha. 

 
otb_lifer said:
i like how he spoke to the fact that WoW steadied, gathered, then had plenty of real estate to run down Max, but he just couldn't ... Max was much the best, WoW had no shot, contact or not. 

now, Preakness is another story for this one ... dunno 'bout the redemption shtick, because horsies don't know from that kinda facacta notion, but the connections sure do want it. BAD.  

maybe their rancor clouds the strategy ... gotta have WoW out the money to cash big in this mutha. 
Beyer is behind a paywall, but I assume from your post he thinks Max should NOT have been DQ'd?  

Still mad.  :hot:

But I'm getting over it every day.

Sort of.

At least I have a souvenir.  

 
Any sports book I've ever wagered horses on clearly spells this limit out.  If you're going to risk that much on one race, go to a track!  This is on him.  Dude is still cashing a huge ticket he is very lucky to be cashing.  
Ah, I only skimmed the story. Didn't realize that was the norm, I've only ever played at a track, an OTB, or online 

 
Ah, I only skimmed the story. Didn't realize that was the norm, I've only ever played at a track, an OTB, or online 
Yeah, it's SOP for books without a parimutual license.  Sucks but they spell it out clearly.  OTBs here charge 5% which sucks but they won't cap a major score like William Hill did in this book.  

 
we looked at the shooters yesterday , now the 4 from the Derby

Improbable - as mentioned, the clear class up in here. Smiff/Baffert, the Brady/Hoodie of this game ... their cred speaks for itself, any superlatives i chuck ain't gonna break any new ground. horse went off as KD fave, was in the attending chase pack all the way around, but never really fired enough to make any kinda threatening move.  got fanned out during the incident, came on down the middle for 5th, notched up to super bottom after the DQ. every conceivable metric of 'capping clearly shows him as a no-brainer. 

War of Will - we have him and Gaffalione to thank for their incredible balance and resiliency, effectively preventing the biggest catastrophe the sport would have ever seen ... thanks, fellas  :tebow:    anyways .... horse knocked around on turf for his first 4 career starts where he didn't really impress ... best was a 2nd place finish after he was run down in the stretch.  his final spinach try was the BC Turf Juvey, 5th most of the way around, and at the finish.  now, here's where this cat gets interesting - they wheeled him back almost immediately (well, for horseracing), chucking him into a Mdn76k a scant 3 weeks after the BCJT - this also marked the full time switch to Gaff. goes off as fave, and romps. two month layoff, makes his 3 yr old debut  as heavy fave in the Lecomteand toys with an over matched field. race pace was abysmal, and he was never really in doubt.  that effort set him up as even $  fave for the Risen Star, and he lived up to the hype, rating off swifter fractions than the Lecomte, then exploding for home ... futile stretch chase from Country House, who would see WoW again 10 weeks later. soooo, now he's set up as fave for his big final Derby prep, we on our way to a Cajun Coronation!  WAR OF WILL, WAIT!  oooooooffahhhh. 4th start on the surface, first time eating dirt ... never really lifted a hoof with urgency. his "bounce"? sure. Casse allowed afterwards that, seeing as how they had already secured a gate at Churchill, this was a strategic "lesson race" decision  :tinfoilhat:   and on he went to star in the sport's greatest ever controversy. 

Win3 - impressive 3 yr old debut in the 7f Pasco, posting a career best fig - was only in sprints prior to, and that would be his last. big jump on his first stretch out to the Tampa Bay Derby - the Pasco score merited him m/l fave status - this was a blistering pace that he mostly middled in ... fanned 4 wide to close into minor coin, but an overall meh effort for his first route. Tacitus was beastly  :wub:     wheeled out 4 weeks later for a much more impressive showing in the Bluegrass - trouble early, laid back off crisp pace ... and, if you can take your eyes off the facacta egg beater stylings of Vekoma in the stretch, you'll see our boy here closing with all he's worth to secure a Derby bid - he needed to bag the 50 pts for second, lest he would've been shut out of Churchill ... nice, gutsy rally.  never got underway in the KD ... wide trip, off track - he had nuffin' too remarkable to offer.

Bodexpress - has yet to break his maiden, 4 tries at GP in various 50-60k mdn races, at varying lengths - yet found himself in the starting gate come the Florida Derby - where he ran a friggin' good'n  - hung with Max most of the way 'til the winner opened up and blew it away ... but our boy Bode was a clear and uncontested second, clear by 3 lengths of some much more heralded Derby timber.  was a pace less affair, and he wasn't asked to do much more than draft MS the whooooole way around, and that he did very well. had to sweat out a couple scratches to make the Churchill trek, but he got his gate.  was chasing Max again, was as close as third prior to the bump, got troubled by the shuffling (was nice of Colmus to ignore the chaos and insanity for a hot second to tell us all that Bode was "plummeting" thru the field - had to be a dig at someone he knew who was bat#### for Bode going in) then backed up fast and faded.   dunno wtf to make of this cat. pace figures to be a whole hell of a lot hotter on Saturday - wtf is the strategy from the connections? do they send the son of Bodemeister? lay back and hope for  a cataclysmic meltdown? whaaa? ... if we toss the KD, his second in FD is a very decent form to hope for, but, again, THE PACE ... the lights can go ON at any given time with 3 yr olds, and his was shining at Gulfstream gazing at the ### of the absentee class of 2019's crop all the way around   :deadhorse:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Man, all seems right with the world again...

I'll have my thoughts, for the little they're worth, after the post draw - likely tomorrow.....
your thoughts are always appreciated and heeded respectfully by all who usually frequent our horse threads - and they offer great insight - lookin' forward to your take, amigo  :thumbup:

 
Only 4 racing days so not a large sample size yet of results, but 2 turn dirt races have been won anywhere from the 1 to 9 post, not sure if there is any true bias there.
weather has been cooler, and a bit damp, as well ... Saturday 'cast still holding at 75 and sunny last look - gonna be souped up if it holds - ergo, we gotta get Improbable into a most compromising post ... he rates such an edge on this lot, if he draws favorably it'll most likely be some BINGO! underneath plays ruling the tix - of course, there's a 10% chance he runs a clunker, or is slowed by force majeure ... it's horseracing, after all.  

 
tied up in transit atm ... live feeds are no bueno thru some of these tunnels- anyone gonna actually give this draw selection a minute?  

:coffee:

 
15-1 ya say ?       🤔

Feel like the Preakness is usually dominated by a known commodity and underneath is at least one new name.  Afleet Alex/ScrappyT style. 
Afleet Alex in the Preakness was one of the most impressive things I've ever seen live in my life.

That was ####### awesome

 
welly welly well ... the class draws perfectly, Improbable in a most flattering gate to run his race - expected pacesetter right to his inside, and two Derby foes drawing the extreme posts. WoW ran respectable from same in the KD, and should get out ok from Bourbon War, who will not be on the engine ..  but W3 looks to be the big loser here - 15/1 odds are juicy, but top of the ticket is a verrrry big stretch coming out the 13 hole. 

oh, back to Bourbon War - haven't spotlighted him yet, let's take a look at a cat who i now am coming around on very much for this expected pace scenario. 

a stone closer, gonna reference his last two outings to get get a better grip - he hasn't been out since the Florida Derby (3/30) - was short odds coming off a nice F.o.Y. charge 4 weeks earlier. 

in looking at Bodexpress yesterday i hammered home how lazy the fractions were in the FD ... Max and Bode loafed around unchallenged, and cleared the rest with ease.  we all know a closer ain't worth a #### if there is no speed to eat into, amirite? we toss this race? i'm gonna, seeing as how "pace makes the race" holds sway here.  

so now we gotta reach all the way back to 3/2 - take a look at his effort in the F.o.Y. 

lotta familar names in there, and a race which i think will most certainly resemble the pace scenario we'll see Saturday - blistering early fractions, while Bourbon sat back and moved economically enough to reserve a gargantuan run home - another 1/4 furlong and he would've devoured Code of Honor, who went on to finish a very game second in Churchill. 

with the Imp drawing so favorably for the Preakness it's gonna get the speed shooters on their engines - i expect a pace meltdown for sure ... this horse has shown he can thrive in said scenario - he becomes the most intriguung play of the lot now, imo - generous odds, running style immune to the inside draw ... wildcard hit is that blinkers will be added for Saturday - look at the PPs shows trainer has a dog#### record with first time blinks ... but, hey, he knows the animal much better'n i do  :deadhorse:    maybe for the best, he did look a bit green in that F.o.Y. stretch.

btw, sired by Tapit - and i do love me some Tapit timber  :wub:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Black-Eyed Susan

Preakness

I'm quite crestfallen with Alwaysmining.  :wub:

Started watching his video replays and I'm thinking this horse will be the one the rest are chasing down the stretch.  Agree that Improbable is the class of this one, but I'll be using 7 heavy.  

This has been General Malaise for Addicted Gamblers Non-Anonymous 

 
Black-Eyed Susan

Preakness

I'm quite crestfallen with Alwaysmining.  :wub:

Started watching his video replays and I'm thinking this horse will be the one the rest are chasing down the stretch.  Agree that Improbable is the class of this one, but I'll be using 7 heavy.  

This has been General Malaise for Addicted Gamblers Non-Anonymous 
:thumbup:

as far as Alwayasmining goes, yeah ... as i mentioned on Tuesday they schooled him a tad in the Tesio with rating - he laid off the lead nicely, they knew he was gonna have to adapt for the Preakness, no way in hell do they wanna cook him on the front for this one - so the Tesio served up the perfect cast of cans for him to be learnt  ;)

will be hammered down at the windows there ... hometown boy, no Derby winner on hand, open length tuneup romp ... hell, they may bet him all the way down to favorite.  

 
:thumbup:

as far as Alwayasmining goes, yeah ... as i mentioned on Tuesday they schooled him a tad in the Tesio with rating - he laid off the lead nicely, they knew he was gonna have to adapt for the Preakness, no way in hell do they wanna cook him on the front for this one - so the Tesio served up the perfect cast of cans for him to be learnt  ;)

will be hammered down at the windows there ... hometown boy, no Derby winner on hand, open length tuneup romp ... hell, they may bet him all the way down to favorite.  
Yeah, I think you're right, but I can see 7/4 and something longer mixing in for a decent enough payday.  I threw $25 at 6/1 at crooked Bovada to get the party started.  

 
Yeah, I think you're right, but I can see 7/4 and something longer mixing in for a decent enough payday.  I threw $25 at 6/1 at crooked Bovada to get the party started.  
nice, supreme value for him at that number ... think we'll see at least half of that (i think 5/2 or 2/1) come 6:25 Saturday p.m.

can easily see him drafting Imp behind the streakers ... his ascending figs hint that he may have enuff to pass ... in that scenario i look for Bourbon or Bode or Owen to fill out some BINGO!

still scratching the 'capping surface, trying to construct one with both Imp/Always out the money - difficult sell thus far. 

 
Current Odds (taken from TVG via Pimlico)
Improbable: 3/1
War of Will 7/2
Alwaysmining 5/1
Owendale (?) 6/1
Bourbon War  6/1
W3 10/1
Anothertwistafate 12/1
Warrior's Charge 12/1
Signalman 15/1
Laughing Fox 20/1

These are early, obvs.  Changes coming....


 

 
Current Odds (taken from TVG via Pimlico)
Improbable: 3/1
War of Will 7/2
Alwaysmining 5/1
Owendale (?) 6/1
Bourbon War  6/1
W3 10/1
Anothertwistafate 12/1
Warrior's Charge 12/1
Signalman 15/1
Laughing Fox 20/1

These are early, obvs.  Changes coming....


 
did Bodexpress scratch or sumpin'?  hadn't seen anything on that if he did  :shrug:

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top