Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I'm so happy right now.
When is the post draw, tomorrow?
she better kills it, pops is laying out a nice chunk o'change for this artsy edumicational workshop performance thingy (but, yeah, she's got boatloads of musical/dance chops, i expect top billing).
Don't get me started on revenuers!!!!!!must be Yankees or, even worse, revenuers ... those miserable bastids
O brother, I wish that were all it twas.......MoCS jus' down home...
Ahem. I wasn't truthin', dig?O brother, I wish that were all it twas....
Thnx tho.
wat's this truth thing you speak of?Ahem. I wasn't truthin', dig?
grazie, JB!Welcome @otb_lifer ! Glad to have you back.
But, with all that light, that you been catch'n all these years - you should have that change in yer sock drawer by now.
this is true, Mox ... but as a lifelong pony player the only thing i'm interested in is the ol' R.O.I. - don't mind plunking if we get max dividends - i'm as excited about the opportunity as she is.
Don't get me started on revenuers!!!!!!
what, you runnin' a still there, Slappy? save sime vintage 2018 for me Keeneland invasion
Heyo - I'm pretty focused on the ROI meself - but, I fail to see the relevance here...tho, I plunk it out daily.23 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:
But, with all that light, that you been catch'n all these years - you should have that change in yer sock drawer by now.
this is true, Mox ... but as a lifelong pony player the only thing i'm interested in is the ol' R.O.I. - don't mind plunking if we get max dividends -...
see, now that's what differentiates me from mostuh the headz up on here ... i do not/have never/prolly never will partake in the snacks de Cannabis ... dunno, man - i'm still a prodiguous drinker, but backnaday i was a pure ####### speed freek/snowblower ... never vibed to the appeal of the nod squadHeyo - I'm pretty focused on the ROI meself - but, I fail to see the relevance here...tho, I plunk it out daily.
It's all about one's natural baseline body chemistry and where one wants to go with it, imo.see, now that's what differentiates me from mostuh the headz up on here ... i do not/have never/prolly never will partake in the snacks de Cannabis ... dunno, man - i'm still a prodiguous drinker, but backnaday i was a pure ####### speed freek/snowblower ... never vibed to the appeal of the nod squad
but, hey, to each they own - i begrudge no human the pursuit of their particular yaya's.
the overwhelming class up in here comes from Improbable, with the other 2 Derby vets right behind ... was the last new shooter win Rachel Alex in '07? (which made it a rare back to back, with Bernardini gigging in '06)I can't shake the nagging suspicion that Alwaysmining is going to factor in this race. I don't have any analytics to back that up, but I can't shake it.
I agree 100% with OTB that Signalman and Owendale are going to be stretch running - I don't know that either can win, but I'll definitely be using them underneath in exotics.
Did Improbable continue his habit of looking toward the grandstand during his stretch run in the Derby? I was watching for it (I faded him) but didn't notice it - tough to see with all the horses out there.the overwhelming class up in here comes from Improbable, with the other 2 Derby vets right behind ... was the last new shooter win Rachel Alex in '07? (which made it a rare back to back, with Bernardini gigging in '06)
how much did the slop take outta them? Improbale did well to clunk up for back end of the super - Will to Win was the centerpiece/hero of the Max Sec drift ... Win3 managed a middlin' 8th, iirc.
they are the class, no doubt - but not so imposing that they can't be had ... a trifecta of new shooters will pay a bundle. i'm gonna dig deeper to find a way to toss Improbable, but that's gonna take a leap of faith.
yeah, haven't seen an ISO on his Derby run yet ... things got awfully muddled what with the bumper cars, rain, etc - i know Game Winner ran the best Trakus race, covered a ton of ground to hit 6th place ... Improbable was a great fade, but i don't think he embarrassed himself.Did Improbable continue his habit of looking toward the grandstand during his stretch run in the Derby? I was watching for it (I faded him) but didn't notice it - tough to see with all the horses out there.
I was heavy on Game Winner along with Max as keys on top. One of those races where you feel like you 'capped it pretty well and have ####-all to show for it except post-race analysis that no one wants to hear.yeah, haven't seen an ISO on his Derby run yet ... things got awfully muddled what with the bumper cars, rain, etc - i know Game Winner ran the best Trakus race, covered a ton of ground to hit 6th place ... Improbable was a great fade, but i don't think he embarrassed himself.
Alwaysmining is certainly tuned up, agreed ... though he toyed with that Tesio field, he did get a rating lesson, i believe he has had a tendency to be a tad rank - which begs the question of are they gonna have him attend an early pace that figures to be hotter than his last at Laurel? - forecast is still calling for warm and sunny, which will give us a fast surface for this lot.
ooooooh, man was i loving GW as the week wore on - my buddy who i always 'cap with auto tossed him, even though he's a Baffert junkie - he also scoffed at Max for 7 straight days, calling him a Gulfstream bias mirage, but, i digress (though, in the final analysis, that pr1ck was right )I was heavy on Game Winner along with Max as keys on top. One of those races where you feel like you 'capped it pretty well and have ####-all to show for it except post-race analysis that no one wants to hear.
also impressive that he bagged that trip from the farthest inside gate ... he looked to have something left prior to the brush with MS, but, if memory serves, the jock himself allowed that WoW was trending in the opposite direction in his opinion - anyone?War of Will only lost by 4.5 despite the traffic problems. Good shot to at least hit the board?
bumping to fresh page, post draw is Wednesday at 5 ... best chance for chaos is Warriors Charge being fit ... need to see him flying in (at most) :23/:46 splits on a fast surface to really spice this baby up.early skim of the Bris PPs - only 2 have ever cracked a c-note (Derby triers Improbable & Win3)
quickies on some of the new shooters ...
Warriors Charge is gonna be sent, BSFs climbing impressively - connections ponied up the supplemental 150k to put him in the gate - last couple works show nice shape. does Javi dig playing rabbit? won last 2 on the front.
Anothertwistafate been consistent high 90s last 3 (though declining in each), drilled a sharp last work - gets Ortiz, as Javi jumped to the above. disappointing last out behind Owendale, who fanned 6 wide down the stretch settling for 8th in the Risen Star.
Alwaysmining bagged the Tesio as an overwhelming favorite - wasn't overly impressive - dusted this glorified work by 7+ ... tuneup to school this cat on rating just a bit - has won 6 in a row, is working very well, has been flirting with 100 consistently.
Signalman has disappointed since his score in the KJGC as a 2 yr old, but hoping he races back to that form - laid off a crisp pace, made a middle inside move, dealt with traffic nicely, and fended off a stretch challenge ... if the pace cooks on Saturday this cat figures to be picking 'em up late. ran his best fig in the BC Juvey, rallying from 10th to bag show dough.
Owendale turned in a career best effort his last out, coming 4 wide out the clouds and passing a handful of cement shoed onlookers to draw away nicely in the Lex - last work was fantastic, loved the seasoning at Keeneland, showing he has the form to push button a solid move around traffic ... Bridgmohan was chucked after an underwhelming Risen Star, now Geroux stays in the irons after piloting brilliantly for the Lex ... trainer Cox also has expected pacesetter Warriors Charge going ... if he cooks the front you can damn sure expect his stablemate to be mowing through some horse flesh with ease.
Beyer obviously has seen a few thousand more races than I, so I will go along with that. It really is a good way to settle these infractions > would have the 2nd horse won otherwise.@Leroy Hoard - i couldn't find those quotes from the jock, matter of fact, Gaf was too busy spewing about how Saez (freshly suspended for 15 days, btw) was like drunk driver on MS - Casse, as well ... they were both hot as hell about what WoW endured.
however, Beyer has a great take on it, he's of the mindset i misappropriated to Gaf - good read on this whole mess.
i like how he spoke to the fact that WoW steadied, gathered, then had plenty of real estate to run down Max, but he just couldn't ... Max was much the best, WoW had no shot, contact or not.Beyer obviously has seen a few thousand more races than I, so I will go along with that. It really is a good way to settle these infractions > would have the 2nd horse won otherwise.
Beyer is behind a paywall, but I assume from your post he thinks Max should NOT have been DQ'd?otb_lifer said:i like how he spoke to the fact that WoW steadied, gathered, then had plenty of real estate to run down Max, but he just couldn't ... Max was much the best, WoW had no shot, contact or not.
now, Preakness is another story for this one ... dunno 'bout the redemption shtick, because horsies don't know from that kinda facacta notion, but the connections sure do want it. BAD.
maybe their rancor clouds the strategy ... gotta have WoW out the money to cash big in this mutha.
Any sports book I've ever wagered horses on clearly spells this limit out. If you're going to risk that much on one race, go to a track! This is on him. Dude is still cashing a huge ticket he is very lucky to be cashing.
Ah, I only skimmed the story. Didn't realize that was the norm, I've only ever played at a track, an OTB, or onlineAny sports book I've ever wagered horses on clearly spells this limit out. If you're going to risk that much on one race, go to a track! This is on him. Dude is still cashing a huge ticket he is very lucky to be cashing.
Yeah, it's SOP for books without a parimutual license. Sucks but they spell it out clearly. OTBs here charge 5% which sucks but they won't cap a major score like William Hill did in this book.Ah, I only skimmed the story. Didn't realize that was the norm, I've only ever played at a track, an OTB, or online
your thoughts are always appreciated and heeded respectfully by all who usually frequent our horse threads - and they offer great insight - lookin' forward to your take, amigoMan, all seems right with the world again...
I'll have my thoughts, for the little they're worth, after the post draw - likely tomorrow.....
weather has been cooler, and a bit damp, as well ... Saturday 'cast still holding at 75 and sunny last look - gonna be souped up if it holds - ergo, we gotta get Improbable into a most compromising post ... he rates such an edge on this lot, if he draws favorably it'll most likely be some BINGO! underneath plays ruling the tix - of course, there's a 10% chance he runs a clunker, or is slowed by force majeure ... it's horseracing, after all.Only 4 racing days so not a large sample size yet of results, but 2 turn dirt races have been won anywhere from the 1 to 9 post, not sure if there is any true bias there.
https://www.pennlive.com/sports/2019/05/preakness-stakes-2019-post-draw-and-morning-line-odds-improbable-war-of-will-open-as-favorites.htmltied up in transit atm ... live feeds are no bueno thru some of these tunnels- anyone gonna actually give this draw selection a minute?
https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/2019-preakness-stakes-post-positions-draw-updated-odds-favorite-improbable-draws-post-position-no-4/tied up in transit atm ... live feeds are no bueno thru some of these tunnels- anyone gonna actually give this draw selection a minute?
I like the 5 to get up for a piece, maybe under the 4.Feel like the Preakness is usually dominated by a known commodity and underneath is at least one new name. Afleet Alex/ScrappyT style.
15-1 ya say ?https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/2019-preakness-stakes-post-positions-draw-updated-odds-favorite-improbable-draws-post-position-no-4/
On my phone too. Improbable 5/2 #4. WoW 4/1 #1.
Alwaysmining #7 8/1. WWW 15/1 #13
Afleet Alex in the Preakness was one of the most impressive things I've ever seen live in my life.Feel like the Preakness is usually dominated by a known commodity and underneath is at least one new name. Afleet Alex/ScrappyT style.
Black-Eyed Susan
Preakness
I'm quite crestfallen with Alwaysmining.
Started watching his video replays and I'm thinking this horse will be the one the rest are chasing down the stretch. Agree that Improbable is the class of this one, but I'll be using 7 heavy.
This has been General Malaise for Addicted Gamblers Non-Anonymous
Yeah, I think you're right, but I can see 7/4 and something longer mixing in for a decent enough payday. I threw $25 at 6/1 at crooked Bovada to get the party started.
as far as Alwayasmining goes, yeah ... as i mentioned on Tuesday they schooled him a tad in the Tesio with rating - he laid off the lead nicely, they knew he was gonna have to adapt for the Preakness, no way in hell do they wanna cook him on the front for this one - so the Tesio served up the perfect cast of cans for him to be learnt
will be hammered down at the windows there ... hometown boy, no Derby winner on hand, open length tuneup romp ... hell, they may bet him all the way down to favorite.
nice, supreme value for him at that number ... think we'll see at least half of that (i think 5/2 or 2/1) come 6:25 Saturday p.m.Yeah, I think you're right, but I can see 7/4 and something longer mixing in for a decent enough payday. I threw $25 at 6/1 at crooked Bovada to get the party started.
did Bodexpress scratch or sumpin'? hadn't seen anything on that if he didCurrent Odds (taken from TVG via Pimlico)
Improbable: 3/1
War of Will 7/2
Alwaysmining 5/1
Owendale (?) 6/1
Bourbon War 6/1
W3 10/1
Anothertwistafate 12/1
Warrior's Charge 12/1
Signalman 15/1
Laughing Fox 20/1
These are early, obvs. Changes coming....