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otb_lifer

Of Lillies & Remains - A One Year Hiatus/A Maximum Ripoff/D&D Dumb Down Westeros/Happy Birfday Sid Vish *** An Honorable Travers ***

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16 hours ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Not my yr for the TC races it seems

Oh well. Hope you all made something

Yeah, me neither.  There was a time I thought I could do this but I can't anymore and it's not even really close.  :(

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6 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Yeah, me neither.  There was a time I thought I could do this but I can't anymore and it's not even really close.  :(

Eh, that's why they call it gambling instead of winning

We'll get em next time 

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3 hours ago, General Malaise said:

Yeah, me neither.  There was a time I thought I could do this but I can't anymore and it's not even really close.  :(

wait 'til this thread bottoms out after the Belmont and i'm posting pick 4s from bullrings like Fonner Park and Canterbury :shock:

3 hours ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Eh, that's why they call it gambling instead of winning

We'll get em next time 

see the above, maybe i'll start sooner than mid-June, got a bit of a war chest to burn thru here :ptts:

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Had WoW $100 across the board but the 10 horse killed all my exotics, made a few bucks in the end. Watched the race at Monmouth Park, beautiful day out yet the place was a ghost town.

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Btw, Maximum Security shipped to Monmouth about 10 days ago. They pranced him around in the Paddock for about a half hour yesterday afternoon. Seems like the Haskill may be his next race.

Edited by Penguin
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10 hours ago, Penguin said:

Btw, Maximum Security shipped to Monmouth about 10 days ago. They pranced him around in the Paddock for about a half hour yesterday afternoon. Seems like the Haskill may be his next race.

interesting ... that would mark roughly 3 months between starts (Haskell is usually first Sunday in August, or thereabout) - who knows, maybe WoW's owner accepts the West challenge and we get a juicy ### plot line for the Belmont :shrug:

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36 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

interesting ... that would mark roughly 3 months between starts (Haskell is usually first Sunday in August, or thereabout) 

Sounds like maybe the Pegasus first

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14 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Sounds like maybe the Pegasus first

makes a ton more sense to notch one outing before the Haskell, which is usually a ridiculously paced affair run over concrete like conditions ... can't see their aim in trying that kinda harrowing gig without a warmup race. 

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14 hours ago, Penguin said:

Had WoW $100 across the board but the 10 horse killed all my exotics, made a few bucks in the end. Watched the race at Monmouth Park, beautiful day out yet the place was a ghost town.

i'll be down there for the Belmont, my 'capping buddy has a reserved area on the rail ... stop by and have a few coldies if you're planning on attending. 

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On 5/18/2019 at 6:41 AM, otb_lifer said:
On 5/17/2019 at 5:15 PM, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

I warn'd ya bout the ossification, O! :doh:

Zozzled's just round the corner...next to the pettin' pantry...

Keep yous remain'n mazuma safe!

now you're on the trolley!

Piffle!

I've always been on. 🤬

On 5/18/2019 at 6:41 AM, otb_lifer said:

anyways, i was so wrapt with that bluenose ... nary had time for a gasper, let alone some choice 'capping - was further distracted by the comely cancelled stamp who pounds his numbahs. hitting the loo to pop a jorum of skee from my quult was darb enough to keep me half seas ovah.

No gaspers?! 

Yeah...tell it to Sweeney. 🙄

 Regard'n that stamp...Woof! Woof!...but the skee be berries in my mind. Yay!

 

On 5/18/2019 at 6:41 AM, otb_lifer said:

i damn near pulled a Dan'l Boone on Lefferts blvd when i realized the hayburner i ordered was staring me in the peeps - somehow straggled h'bound in finest fettle. 

A Boone?

Oh man - that's a flat tire fer sure, but at least the Jalopy Joe  served its purpose.

 

On 5/18/2019 at 6:41 AM, otb_lifer said:

i kinda regret not cashing that choice bit o'calico from the bricks, but through my ossification i spied a manacle - sockdollager 'nuff for me to know my ####### onions on that score. 

Rhatz, manacles are bind'n, bub. Good decision. 

On 5/18/2019 at 6:41 AM, otb_lifer said:

catch ya on the late - :coffee:

You slay me. 🤕

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1 hour ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

Piffle!

I've always been on. 🤬

No gaspers?! 

Yeah...tell it to Sweeney. 🙄

 Regard'n that stamp...Woof! Woof!...but the skee be berries in my mind. Yay!

 

A Boone?

Oh man - that's a flat tire fer sure, but at least the Jalopy Joe  served its purpose.

 

Rhatz, manacles are bind'n, bub. Good decision. 

You slay me. 🤕

:lmao:

slappy!

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On 5/20/2019 at 1:01 PM, otb_lifer said:

i'll be down there for the Belmont, my 'capping buddy has a reserved area on the rail ... stop by and have a few coldies if you're planning on attending. 

I'm hoping I can make it over that day, I'll let you know when we get closer to the 8th

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3 minutes ago, Penguin said:

I'm hoping I can make it over that day, I'll let you know when we get closer to the 8th

cool, just found out yesterday - one of his clients always has a reserved rail area for the big events ... i went a couple years ago on Travers Day, place was jammed and jamming - nice to have that private section full of kegs and grub :banned:

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Belmont Week!

ARE WE EXCITED, OR WHAT?!??

we have already had Owendale and Game Winner drop out, and now it appears both Tax and Master Fencer are also in peril of missing - would potentially drop the field to seven :deadhorse:   note that Global Campaign, the Peter Pan winner, was not pointed here as per his connections  :confused:  we will see the place and show runners, though - Sir Winston made one hell of a late run, but he'd be ill-advised to hang back too far on Saturday.  nice lookin' horse, though - good prep outta him.

latest Bris PPs   look at some works

WoW will not be breezing prior to.

welcome back, Tacitus  :wub: 

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2 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

it's the Tapit Olympics!!!

couple years ago our boy Tapwrit finally paid off at Big Sandy - you were up on him with me waaayyyy back in the February running of the Sam F. Davis that year :thumbup: took 4 months, but ...

Tacitus is set up beautifully here - his race to lose. 

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20 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

Tacitus is set up beautifully here - his race to lose. 

Like a li'l more foot in my Belmonters, but he looks above these

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3 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

Like a li'l more foot in my Belmonters, but he looks above these

... and he's catching WoW at the right time - i have come around on WoW, think he's a very solid cat, but he did benefit from a golden rail at Pimlico - all credit to Gaf for a brilliant job piloting ... Owendale may actually have run a better race in the final analysis, but got hung out in the 4 path :shrug:

instead of my usual key-box shtick, i'm leaning Tac on top and then banging the exotics - small field will help economize, and if WoW does peter out we may get a slight case of bingo underneath.  

gotta have faith in the animal doing his job - i think he's in such great shape for Saturday - it's worth the stretch. 

 

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1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:

... and he's catching WoW at the right time - i have come around on WoW, think he's a very solid cat, but he did benefit from a golden rail at Pimlico - all credit to Gaf for a brilliant job piloting ... Owendale may actually have run a better race in the final analysis, but got hung out in the 4 path :shrug:

instead of my usual key-box shtick, i'm leaning Tac on top and then banging the exotics - small field will help economize, and if WoW does peter out we may get a slight case of bingo underneath.  

gotta have faith in the animal doing his job - i think he's in such great shape for Saturday - it's worth the stretch. 

 

:blackdot:

I was thinking the same.  I was fairly heavy on Tacitus in the Derby despite the fact that Wood winners rarely fare well there, he was my favorite horse of this crop going into CD, my Vino Rosso for 2019, if you will.  I like his unwillingness to lose and the fact that I think the distance will be no issue for him.  Will check back Wednesday AM when the field is set and the posts are drawn.  Gotta win one motherlovin race this year, no?

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20 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

:blackdot:

I was thinking the same.  I was fairly heavy on Tacitus in the Derby despite the fact that Wood winners rarely fare well there, he was my favorite horse of this crop going into CD, my Vino Rosso for 2019, if you will.  I like his unwillingness to lose and the fact that I think the distance will be no issue for him.  Will check back Wednesday AM when the field is set and the posts are drawn.  Gotta win one motherlovin race this year, no?

:thumbup:

good to see ya back, EG!

if the field is indeed whittled down to 7 it'll run $30 to key him over the field for $1 trifecta ... will be bangin' that at least 20x, hoping to get some prices underneath - i'm confident enuff in him right now to take that leap - ergo, straight up win bet, in lieu of the tri spread, is not off the table.

Edited by otb_lifer

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2 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

:thumbup:

good to see ya back, EG!

if the field is indeed whittled down to 7 it'll run $30 to key him over the field for $1 trifecta ... will be bangin' that at least 20x, hoping to get some prices underneath - i'm confident enuff in him right now to take that leap - ergo, straight up win bet, in lieu of the tri spread, is not off the table.

I was thinking about doing exactly this, I was just worried that I was allowing bias to creep in after longshots hitting the board in both the Derby and Preakness.  If chalk comes in, that payout is going to be dog ####, but at least you'd likely make much of your bet back.

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23 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

I was thinking about doing exactly this, I was just worried that I was allowing bias to creep in after longshots hitting the board in both the Derby and Preakness.  If chalk comes in, that payout is going to be dog ####, but at least you'd likely make much of your bet back.

very true

if Tac and WoW are 1/2 at the wire, it's gonna take the longest shot on the board to even remotely sniff a three digit payout (i'd guess $50-$60 range if that scenario went down) ... which would be a net loss for the layout - so, gotta hope for WoW to be OTM, and for a clunker to hit that second spot behind Tac ... though i'd also allow that Tac will be most heavily bet horse on top.  

hoping he can go off at 2/1 - would pay $6 n' change for the win, which would definitely put me in the straight win bet camp, effectively eschewing the exotic spreads. 

Edited by otb_lifer

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meh, lookin' like a hard pass atm - Tac will prolly be installed as 2/1 ml favorite, so expect him to be banged down to prolly 6/5, if not lower, come post time - the R.O.I. just isn't plum enough to plunk - still think some juice can be had underneath - but even a cat like Bourbon War (who scores Smiff in the irons) is gonna need a herculian effort to finish, let alone money. 

still, i'm a sucker for the allure of the big stakes races, but i'm having a hard time finding significant value here ... both WoW and Tac would have to finish OTM to deliver a yuuuuuuge score - and, while i can see it for the former, i can in no way see it for the latter. 

gonna mine the undercard a ton in the upcoming days ... i kinda dig Firenze Fire at welcoming odds in the Met.

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38 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

meh, lookin' like a hard pass atm - Tac will prolly be installed as 2/1 ml favorite, so expect him to be banged down to prolly 6/5, if not lower, come post time - the R.O.I. just isn't plum enough to plunk - still think some juice can be had underneath - but even a cat like Bourbon War (who scores Smiff in the irons) is gonna need a herculian effort to finish, let alone money. 

still, i'm a sucker for the allure of the big stakes races, but i'm having a hard time finding significant value here ... both WoW and Tac would have to finish OTM to deliver a yuuuuuuge score - and, while i can see it for the former, i can in no way see it for the latter. 

gonna mine the undercard a ton in the upcoming days ... i kinda dig Firenze Fire at welcoming odds in the Met.

You and me both, bud.  The only way to do it might be to hammer Tacitus up and down the exotics and leave WoW out altogether and just pray - both that WoW takes more significant money from the squares based on name recognition AND that he completely ####s the bed on Saturday.

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17 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

You and me both, bud.  The only way to do it might be to hammer Tacitus up and down the exotics and leave WoW out altogether and just pray - both that WoW takes more significant money from the squares based on name recognition AND that he completely ####s the bed on Saturday.

cautionary tale here for me about skipping this mutha is my Preakness score - Everfast kicking in sweetened that tri toot sweet - now, would love to say that i 'capped him into my spread,  but it was simply a case of hitting ALL for the tri box key wheel with WoW - .50 tri hit returned $2,400 + change ... and, yeah, Country House in the KD, to boot.  

depends on the field size as well ... if this is gonna be a 7 horse affair, then, meh - if Tac is on top in that small a field then i can't see a tri paying any more than $80, and if it's him and WoW - half that. 

tryna land on anyone else but those 2 is difficult - guess the Peter Pan duo are interesting enuff, but hometown horses are gonna eat a ton of coin underneath, as will the other Pletcher entrant - i mean, ####, if Bourbon War showed anything other than glorified allowance chops at Pimlico i'd be intrigued. 

 

 

now, Firenze Fire in the Met ... won the Dwyer last year over this track, and also took his last prep here (The Runhappy) nicely (6f) - also owns a win in the Champagne over Big Sandy - undefeated over this course. 

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No. 1Joevia30-1

No. 2Everfast12-1

No. 3Master Fencer8-1

No. 4Tax15-1

No. 5Bourbon War12-1

No. 6Spinoff15-1

No. 7Sir Winston12-1

No. 8Intrepid Heart10-1

No. 9War of Will2-1

No. 10Tacitus9-5

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8 hours ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

No. 1Joevia30-1

the early speed, nice toss fodder

No. 2Everfast12-1

thank you for the Preakness score, use

No. 3Master Fencer8-1

tender ankles interrupted training, will take coin, toss

No. 4Tax15-1

status was also dodgy - bad works traced to bruised foot - toss

No. 5Bourbon War12-1

done with this NW1, toss

No. 6Spinoff15-1

Pletcher will get a run outta him, hated the KD slop, but #### the bed prior to in the La. Derby, tepid use

No. 7Sir Winston12-1

loved the close in the Peter Pan, will be a lot less pace Saturday - still use

No. 8Intrepid Heart10-1

ceded the Pan stretch to Winston, looked flat coming in, toss for now

No. 9War of Will2-1

have gained respect, but if i take a stand, he'll be tossed

No. 10Tacitus9-5

zero value here for the win, but still best single of the lot - tri box key for exotics and pray for some bingo underneath

early feel, still gotta love Tac bigly, the 9 hole shouldn't be of any concern, but do note that he lost his career debut here going 1 1/16th, finished OTM. 

lotta puzzle left to piece together with this crop. 

 

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10 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

nice toss fodder

Getting ready to brush teeth - Eyes fuzzy - no reading glasses 

Nice floss todder

11 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

take coin, toss

coin floss

🤔

12 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

works traced to bruised foot - toss

Floss

13 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

done with this NW1, toss

Floss

13 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

loved the close in the Peter Pan, will be a lot less pace Saturday - still use

Peter Pan! 

14 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

ceded the Pan stretch to Winston, looked flat coming in, toss for now

Pan floss! 

14 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

have gained respect, but if i take a stand, he'll be tossed

Flossed - respect 

15 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

zero value here for the win, but still best single of the lot - tri box key for exotics and pray for some bingo underneath

Tri box is the answer. 

 

And, I think the tooth fairy visited me last night. 🧚‍♀️

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9 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

Getting ready to brush teeth - Eyes fuzzy - no reading glasses 

Nice floss todder

coin floss

🤔

Floss

Floss

Pan floss! 

Flossed - respect 

 

And, I think the tooth fairy visited me last night. 🧚‍♀️

again with the "brushabrushabrusha" oral hygiene shtick?

drill, baby .... drill

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2 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

again with the "brushabrushabrusha" oral hygiene shtick?

Shtick?

I brush my teef ever day - don't you? 

3 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

I listening - but still unfinished. 

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Just now, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

Shtick?

I brush my teef ever day - don't you? 

:tinfoilhat:

I listening - but still unfinished.

:lmao:

never, and i repeat - NEVER! call a man on his teef maintenance- and #### floss, biggest scam since the Dewey Decimal system. 

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Just now, otb_lifer said:

never, and i repeat - NEVER! call a man on his teef maintenance- and #### floss, biggest scam since the Dewey Decimal system. 

What about fluoride

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1 minute ago, otb_lifer said:
4 hours ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

What about fluoride

what about Klaus Fluoride?

 

 

 




It's time to taste what you most fear
Right Guard will not help you here
Brace yourself, my dear
Brace yourself, my dear


...
Don't forget to pack a wife


You're a star-belly sneech - on the beaches - look'n at the peaches


Where you'll kiss ### or crack


 Pot
 Pot
Pot
 Pot
Pot
 Pot
Pot,  Pot,  Pot, Pot
 Pot,  Pot,  Pot,  Pot
 Pot, Pot, Pot,  Pot
 Pot, Pot,  Pot, it's a...


Holiday in Cambodia
Where you'll do what you're told
A holiday in Cambodia
Where the slums got so much soul
 Pot!

 

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as of this post, ZERO percent chance of rain on Saturday - should be hovering around 80 degrees most of the afternoon - we gon' be fast out there ... well, as fast as tge cuppy surface allows - gotta look deeper at that 1 horse Joevia - his speed should carry them for at least 7f ... that sneaky sum##### just may hang around for a piece ... may

Sir Winston is calling out to me if someone decides to engage Joevia - maybe Smiff guns Bourbon outta there - the blinkers will be OFF for that one (had 'em at Pimlico, tho i don't think it mattered for #### in his performance - he didn't lift a ******* hoof).

if those two can get decent seperation, it's gonna put some others on their engines a tad earlier than expected - so we just may get a nice horse race after all - but i'll be damned if Tac just doesn't look phenomenal here.

 

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Tac does seem to check off most of the necessities of winning The Belmont.  But give the #6 Spinoff a good look,  seems like a dry track and a decent trip might put this guy in the mix at 15-1.

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Right now I really like Intrepid Heart to get a piece of this

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36 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Tac does seem to check off most of the necessities of winning The Belmont.  But give the #6 Spinoff a good look,  seems like a dry track and a decent trip might put this guy in the mix at 15-1.

Louisiana Derby was the key prep, inasmuch that we had the winners of the first 2 legs here ... really not thrilled about Spinoff getting snagged in the stretch ... WoW and Country House redeemed themselves outta here, but does Spinoff have that "oooooooph" for the 12f?  daddy Hard Spun was as game a trier as i can remember, but only won one route - now, in his defense, he was in perhaps the deepest 3 yr old crop ever - but, still ... a very underwhelming 4th in his Belmont effort - conversely, no one in this '19 crop would've come within 5 lengths of him :shrug:

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Tacitus scoring in The Wood - Joevia, longest shot on the board, hooks up with fellow longshot (41-1) NotThatBrady , they cook the first 7f, then Joevia fades fast - NTB does likewise soon after - now here come Tax and Tac .... Tac is a BIG boy, he inhales Tax, was not gonna let him pass.

Tax may not be as fit this time out, remains to be seen if both him and Master Fencer even hit the starting gate.

 

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Here are my brief thoughts on each horse looking at the PPs.  Please disabuse me of any fallacious notions I may be holding.

1 - Joevia - struggling to find a reason for capital allocation except for the fact that longshots that I thought had no business anywhere near the money came close in the Derby and scored in the Preakness.  Has been in against these before in the Wood and was a complete non-factor.  Led that race early and got absolutely gobbled up by Tax and Tacitus as soon as they were asked.  I don't think the added distance benefits him at all.  Has fared well against lesser, but my feeling is that he's totally outclassed here.

2 - Everfast - so, here's the problem with handicapping off of PPs.  There's nothing in his history that suggests he had any business on the podium in Baltimore, so there's nothing there BUT the Preakness that indicates he'll be a factor here.  94 speed figure in that race is as fast as he's ever run.  Yet, there he was, gobbling up horses in the homestretch and actually closed the gap on WoW by 2 1/2 lengths down the stretch.  Horse has run 11 races lifetime and against really good competition, is it possible he's just now finding his race?  He's rated off the pace before against strong comp and been no factor, where did that stretch run come from?  Curious case here.  Don't think he can be ignored.

3 - Master Fencer.  WTF knows?  Don't know how you can really handicap the Asian races (at least I can't) - he was an insta-toss for me in the Derby but showed out nicely, picking horses up late and finishing a solid 7th (6th after DQ.)  My instinct is to toss him, but I think there's a chance he can get a piece based on his Derby run.

4 - Tax.  Oh, Tax - you baffle me.  Ran basically the exact same race as Tacitus in the Wood, they were practically joined at the hip all the way around, Tacitus was just a little better.  If I like Tacitus to win, surely I'd like Tax to figure.  But then... the Derby.  WTF?  Sat back, as is his wont, but then made no move whatsoever.  After three straight triple digit speed figures, he turns in an 85 in the Derby and was a complete non-factor, finishing 15 back.  Did Alvarado pull him up a bit realizing there was no shot or did he ask and the horse simply didn't respond?  If he can regain his form, could potentially figure here.

5 - Bourbon War - drew a lot of attention going into the Preakness, but I was off of him.  Intriguing history of quality fields he's run against but was never quite good enough in any of them.  His two career wins are in a maiden and a 75K claimer - every time he's faced quality fields, he's come up short.  Took a giant dump at Pimlico despite getting a decent enough trip, have we seen his best?  Might use on bottom of tri/super but nothing more.

6 - Spinoff - reminds me a bit of Bourbon War in that he seems to be getting a bit of hype coming into this race as BW did in the Preakness, but there's not a ton of info out there in his PPs to support it.  Another horse who's won maiden and claimers but hasn't won against a quality field, despite placing well in the Louisiana Derby.  I don't like how By My Standards was able to reel him in in that race, and as a result, was off him for the Derby.  Which was a good thing because his Derby run was fecal.  Gobbled up early after being placed 5th to start and just continued to fade.  Is this a prime spot for a bounce or is he just outclassed?  I think he's in the BW category for me, filler underneath.

7 - Sir Winston - another one that hasn't shown the ability to hang with these yet.  Hung in in the Withers and the Tampa Bay Derby and finished respectably while gaining late, but then turned in an absolute stinker in the Bluegrass and fell off my radar entirely.  Didn't expect to see him here but after a career best 101 in the Peter Pan, I guess his connections figured he was rounding into form, despite only finishing 2nd.  If you toss the Bluegrass, recent history suggests he may be capable of snagging a piece with the added distance.  Add him to the "use underneath" group.

8 - Intrepid Heart - hmmmm.  Lightly raced horse who won his first two starts and then finished 3rd in the aforementioned Peter Pan, right behind Sir Winston.  Notes say he stumbled in that race but he was the pre-race favorite and finished 3rd, you have to believe they were pointing him to Belmont all the way.  Speed figures have improved with each race.  Can he hang with this class of horses?  Is he sitting on a big one?  So little to work with here, but this feels like the horse that could sneak in and #### up your exotics if you ignore him.  Or finish dead last.

9 - War of Will - not sure how much there is to deep dive here.  #### the bed at the Louisiana as a big favorite, but with all the talking I've done about horses above spitting the bit in big races, he rebounded nicely and ran well at CD.  I liked him coming into the Preakness off the strength of that effort and he didn't disappoint.  Clearly one of the two most talented horses in the field, you either have to use him and endure a #### payout if he finishes or take a stand against.

10 - Tacitus - was my biggest key horse going into the Derby.  Coming off of three straight wins where his figures not only kept improving (up to a 103 in the Wood) but he showed a real willingness not to be beaten.  I love horses that look like they have that Jordan-esque "you're not beating me" edge to them, and Tacitus has it.  Did not get a good trip in the Derby and still showed real mettle, closing in the stretch and ending up 3rd after the DQ.  I would have hammered him at Pimlico and I will hammer him here.  Most likely winner, IMO.

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13 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

Here are my brief thoughts on each horse looking at the PPs.  Please disabuse me of any fallacious notions I may be holding.

1 - Joevia - struggling to find a reason for capital allocation except for the fact that longshots that I thought had no business anywhere near the money came close in the Derby and scored in the Preakness.  Has been in against these before in the Wood and was a complete non-factor.  Led that race early and got absolutely gobbled up by Tax and Tacitus as soon as they were asked.  I don't think the added distance benefits him at all.  Has fared well against lesser, but my feeling is that he's totally outclassed here.

2 - Everfast - so, here's the problem with handicapping off of PPs.  There's nothing in his history that suggests he had any business on the podium in Baltimore, so there's nothing there BUT the Preakness that indicates he'll be a factor here.  94 speed figure in that race is as fast as he's ever run.  Yet, there he was, gobbling up horses in the homestretch and actually closed the gap on WoW by 2 1/2 lengths down the stretch.  Horse has run 11 races lifetime and against really good competition, is it possible he's just now finding his race?  He's rated off the pace before against strong comp and been no factor, where did that stretch run come from?  Curious case here.  Don't think he can be ignored.

3 - Master Fencer.  WTF knows?  Don't know how you can really handicap the Asian races (at least I can't) - he was an insta-toss for me in the Derby but showed out nicely, picking horses up late and finishing a solid 7th (6th after DQ.)  My instinct is to toss him, but I think there's a chance he can get a piece based on his Derby run.

4 - Tax.  Oh, Tax - you baffle me.  Ran basically the exact same race as Tacitus in the Wood, they were practically joined at the hip all the way around, Tacitus was just a little better.  If I like Tacitus to win, surely I'd like Tax to figure.  But then... the Derby.  WTF?  Sat back, as is his wont, but then made no move whatsoever.  After three straight triple digit speed figures, he turns in an 85 in the Derby and was a complete non-factor, finishing 15 back.  Did Alvarado pull him up a bit realizing there was no shot or did he ask and the horse simply didn't respond?  If he can regain his form, could potentially figure here.

5 - Bourbon War - drew a lot of attention going into the Preakness, but I was off of him.  Intriguing history of quality fields he's run against but was never quite good enough in any of them.  His two career wins are in a maiden and a 75K claimer - every time he's faced quality fields, he's come up short.  Took a giant dump at Pimlico despite getting a decent enough trip, have we seen his best?  Might use on bottom of tri/super but nothing more.

6 - Spinoff - reminds me a bit of Bourbon War in that he seems to be getting a bit of hype coming into this race as BW did in the Preakness, but there's not a ton of info out there in his PPs to support it.  Another horse who's won maiden and claimers but hasn't won against a quality field, despite placing well in the Louisiana Derby.  I don't like how By My Standards was able to reel him in in that race, and as a result, was off him for the Derby.  Which was a good thing because his Derby run was fecal.  Gobbled up early after being placed 5th to start and just continued to fade.  Is this a prime spot for a bounce or is he just outclassed?  I think he's in the BW category for me, filler underneath.

7 - Sir Winston - another one that hasn't shown the ability to hang with these yet.  Hung in in the Withers and the Tampa Bay Derby and finished respectably while gaining late, but then turned in an absolute stinker in the Bluegrass and fell off my radar entirely.  Didn't expect to see him here but after a career best 101 in the Peter Pan, I guess his connections figured he was rounding into form, despite only finishing 2nd.  If you toss the Bluegrass, recent history suggests he may be capable of snagging a piece with the added distance.  Add him to the "use underneath" group.

8 - Intrepid Heart - hmmmm.  Lightly raced horse who won his first two starts and then finished 3rd in the aforementioned Peter Pan, right behind Sir Winston.  Notes say he stumbled in that race but he was the pre-race favorite and finished 3rd, you have to believe they were pointing him to Belmont all the way.  Speed figures have improved with each race.  Can he hang with this class of horses?  Is he sitting on a big one?  So little to work with here, but this feels like the horse that could sneak in and #### up your exotics if you ignore him.  Or finish dead last.

9 - War of Will - not sure how much there is to deep dive here.  #### the bed at the Louisiana as a big favorite, but with all the talking I've done about horses above spitting the bit in big races, he rebounded nicely and ran well at CD.  I liked him coming into the Preakness off the strength of that effort and he didn't disappoint.  Clearly one of the two most talented horses in the field, you either have to use him and endure a #### payout if he finishes or take a stand against.

10 - Tacitus - was my biggest key horse going into the Derby.  Coming off of three straight wins where his figures not only kept improving (up to a 103 in the Wood) but he showed a real willingness not to be beaten.  I love horses that look like they have that Jordan-esque "you're not beating me" edge to them, and Tacitus has it.  Did not get a good trip in the Derby and still showed real mettle, closing in the stretch and ending up 3rd after the DQ.  I would have hammered him at Pimlico and I will hammer him here.  Most likely winner, IMO.

:thumbup:

great stuff, EG - much obliged

- huge caveats on Tax and Master Fencer being tepid, health wise - want no part of that #### at 12 panels.  

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2 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

:thumbup:

great stuff, EG - much obliged

- huge caveats on Tax and Master Fencer being tepid, health wise - want no part of that #### at 12 panels.  

What's the story there?  Ill, injured, etc?  Bummer, especially on Tax, I really thought he had a chance to surprise at a decent price.  Reminds me a bit of WoW coming out of Louisiana - if you can see your way clear to toss his Derby run, he looks like a horse that could hit the board.

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16 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

What's the story there?  Ill, injured, etc?  Bummer, especially on Tax, I really thought he had a chance to surprise at a decent price.  Reminds me a bit of WoW coming out of Louisiana - if you can see your way clear to toss his Derby run, he looks like a horse that could hit the board.

Tax

MFer

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1 minute ago, otb_lifer said:

Thanks.  The MFer link is blocked for me since our IT department decided to block any sites that relate to gambling, tobacco or alcohol.  :rolleyes:

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12 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

Thanks.  The MFer link is blocked for me since our IT department decided to block any sites that relate to gambling, tobacco or alcohol.  :rolleyes:

how are things at Prager U?  :D

MFer had a bump while working -  stumbled a bit, came out with some inflamation. 

both camps are playing these waaaayyyy down, of course - but it's enough for me to toss - i ain't buying them factoring for 12 if they do make it to the gate. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer

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5 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

how are things at Prager U?  :D

MFer had a bump while working -  stumbled a bit, came out with some inflamation. 

both camps are playing these waaaayyyy down, of course - but it's enough for me to toss - i ain't buying them factoring for 12 if they do make it to the gate. 

 

:lmao:

I'll likely toss MF based on this.  I don't know if I can get off Tax though.  GD it.

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15 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

:lmao:

I'll likely toss MF based on this.  I don't know if I can get off Tax though.  GD it.

when you look at the field, Tac and WoW stand out, that's a beaten to death given. so be it. 

but we've seen much greater horses falter here - i like those two, but i wouldn't call them great by any stretch - most i can muster is "good, might mature to very good"

huge numbers have come out on top here, we all know the history ... so, yeah, i could see a 'capper landing on Tax or MFer for some of that lightning strike - they are solid, if not unspectacular, colts - ergo, it blows to have them even the slightest bit dodgy - and, who knows, they may both be ready to uncork one of those crassic Belmont upsets ... but the doubts linger for me. 

if they were both sans question marks? #### yeah, excellent prospects for ATB goodness, no question. 

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What are your thoughts on Everfast?  Was the Preakness an anomaly or did the light go on?  Horse was 1-1-1 in 10 lifetime starts going in - that performance made no sense to me other than to say - these are animals and no one knows WTF is going to happen.

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