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otb_lifer

Of Lillies & Remains - A One Year Hiatus/A Maximum Ripoff/D&D Dumb Down Westeros/Happy Birfday Sid Vish *** An Honorable Travers ***

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6 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

What are your thoughts on Everfast?  Was the Preakness an anomaly or did the light go on?  Horse was 1-1-1 in 10 lifetime starts going in - that performance made no sense to me other than to say - these are animals and no one knows WTF is going to happen.

veey respectable 2nd in his stakes debut (Holy Bull to Harvey Wallbanger) - but then absolutely #### his shorts for the next three (F.o.Y, FD, Pat Day) - he looked ready for the knackers, man :unsure:

Pimlico ... ahhh, yes - a very succint place finish - with Owendale out in the four path third, WoW on the golden rail winning - it was a nice trip ... cannot be discounted here at all - would be surprised at a W, but not shocked :shrug: yeah, those three year old bulbs are a very mercurial entity - love him hitting the board ... matter of fact, if it all goes to #### with WoW and Tac, my money would be on this cat and the Peter Pan duo for the tri - pick an order. 

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1 hour ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

What are your thoughts on Everfast?  Was the Preakness an anomaly or did the light go on?  Horse was 1-1-1 in 10 lifetime starts going in - that performance made no sense to me other than to say - these are animals and no one knows WTF is going to happen.

Jock chose the 7 over him, not that it always means something. Solid race last but no premier type speed rating per the Brisnets.

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11 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Jock chose the 7 over him, not that it always means something. Solid race last but no premier type speed rating per the Brisnets.

did not know Rosario jumped ship ... hmmm - but lookie here on Everfast, it's Max's suspended pilot Saez :popcorn:

this is juicy. 

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For a $1 tri payout, how much it cost to key a horse on top of four horses + box the five of them?

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5 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

For a $1 tri payout, how much it cost to key a horse on top of four horses + box the five of them?

tri key box, 1 key horse with 4 others = $36

Edited by otb_lifer
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7 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

tri key box, 1 key horse with 4 others = $36

Key w/ 4 other horses w/ the same 4 = $12 on a $1 wager, no?  Unless I misunderstood, it was worded ambiguously.

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I just went back and watched the Peter Pan.  Two observations.

1 - I really liked Sir Winston's late run.  He sat well off the pace and looked best coming down the stretch.  Obviously at 1 1/2, that race probably is run differently but he likely wins with some more ground.

2 - Not only did Intrepid Heart stumble out of the gate, but it looked like he had a chance to make a similar late run.  He and Sir Winston were basically stride for stride heading into the backstretch, but they ran into the 7, who was slowing down.  Sir Winston went outside, Intrepid Heart went inside.  The 7 drifted in and cut Intrepid Heart off and he was forced to put the brakes on.  Now, whether he could have stayed with Sir Winston or not, we don't know, but I'm not ready to say he couldn't have given his pedigree and performances to date.  I'm not tossing the 8 by a long shot.

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14 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

Key w/ 4 other horses w/ the same 4 = $12 on a $1 wager, no?  Unless I misunderstood, it was worded ambiguously.

it's my go to wager, gotta luv your key horse ... much more economical than the standard "box"

so ... bet is:

KEY over 1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 over KEY over 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4 over KEY

run ya $36

fall in love with a pony ... key the #### outta him.  profit. 

 

ETA: straight up box would run $60 :bye:

Edited by otb_lifer
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14 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

it's my go to wager, gotta luv your key horse ... much more economical than the standard "box"

so ... bet is:

KEY over 1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 over KEY over 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4 over KEY

run ya $36

fall in love with a pony ... key the #### outta him.  profit. 

 

ETA: straight up box would run $60 :bye:

Oh OK, I see.  I thought he was just talking about KEY over 1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4.

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14 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

Oh OK, I see.  I thought he was just talking about KEY over 1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4.

 

14 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

I'm still trying to get the KEY. 

my Preakness score

tri box keyed the #1 WoW over the field ... fitty cent style - layout was $198 - return was :pickle:

Edited by otb_lifer
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56 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

I'm still trying to get the KEY. 

The key with keys is not to get in the hole.

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15 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Sorry for the confusing post, but I found a way for me not to ask any more questions that I should already know the answer to.

https://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html

doesn't seem to offer the key box option ... just straight up box - im'ma look for one that has the feature during this miserable LIRR trek

ETA: start here - figure your key horse and how many others you will use with ... muliply by 3 for total coverage - WA LALALA

ETA 2: so, using 4 horses as an example, it costs $12 see the example i made here - ergo, to get the full key wheel as i demonstrated before it is 3 x $12 = $36

Edited by otb_lifer
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1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:

it's my go to wager, gotta luv your key horse ... much more economical than the standard "box"

so ... bet is:

KEY over 1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 over KEY over 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4 over KEY

run ya $36

fall in love with a pony ... key the #### outta him.  profit. 

 

ETA: straight up box would run $60 :bye:

This is a really elegant bet. When I did bet the ponies, this was my "go to" also.

1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:

 

my Preakness score

tri box keyed the #1 WoW over the field ... fitty cent style - layout was $198 - return was :pickle:

Very nice!

32 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

The key with keys is not to get in the hole.

LOL.

Yeah. They KEY is really the key to all this...

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1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:

it's my go to wager, gotta luv your key horse ... much more economical than the standard "box"

so ... bet is:

KEY over 1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 over KEY over 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 over 1 2 3 4 over KEY

run ya $36

fall in love with a pony ... key the #### outta him.  profit. 

 

ETA: straight up box would run $60 :bye:

OK, I like this better.  My old way was $72 and this is half so I could actually double it up to a $2 wager for the same price. 

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Or if I want to push it to a 60 dollar bet for a buck I could key a horse with FIVE others on the tri. Would only have to throw out four horses. Kinda like a deluxe show bet but you really need that other chalk to run out to win. Almost as much a key-out as a key-in?

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35 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Or if I want to push it to a 60 dollar bet for a buck I could key a horse with FIVE others on the tri. Would only have to throw out four horses. Kinda like a deluxe show bet but you really need that other chalk to run out to win. Almost as much a key-out as a key-in?

Yeah.

The big KEY is still THE key, but rather than tossing out a lot of the horses (i.e. keying into a smaller selection for the $ finish), you toss out a little - thus, a "key out" - keying out those you feel "out of" the $ rather than in the $.

It nets less, but has a higher win % if you feel stronger about a horse "out" of $ than "in" $. 

 

Well - that is the way I read it. I could be wrong.

Edited by Man of Constant Sorrow
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Bad news - I can't get a feel for this race. Couldn't for the entire TC wtf

Good news - I think my wife and I are going to the OTB for the first time since Zenyatta won the BC

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13 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

OK, I like this better.  My old way was $72 and this is half so I could actually double it up to a $2 wager for the same price. 

one could actually key this whole field for $216 - this is the "#### IT, LET'S HOPE FOR BINGO!" approach, but, as we saw in the Preakness, a long one in between two lower odds entrants can yield ($4,700 for the dollar tri three weeks ago). and if we get some real chaos tomorrow? as in WoW and Tac off the board?  then we have a legit 5 figure tri yield. of course, to really maximize this swing for the fences, you would need to key one of the longer cats ... but you have the potential saver angle inasmuch that you have ALL covered as long as your key hits the board. 

"BUT WHY NOT BOX IT INSTEAD??!?!??" - simple, boxing the whole field will run ya $720.  sure, you win no matter what, a guaranteed casher, but if we run chalk tomorrow you'll get a $35 return ... same with the key box wager, but eating a $180 loss is much easier than the $690 gut punch from the straight up box. 

again, your KEY horse needs to hit the board ... along with two of your box selections, of course.   it's a riskier play than the box in that respect, but, if you land on a horse you love, #### it - if you dig that much then the sum##### better run in the money. 

more picture time w/OTB - the top pic is the straight box, second is the key box - which you would multiply by three (ergo $216) to cover you in all three slots. 

lotta ways to construct this wager based on your budget and # of horses you wanna use, of course ... hell, play the above example of the key over ALL for the fitty cent tri and it will run a very reasonable $108. 

:deadhorse:

 

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If I had to throw one out to go with the one that has to be in it, it would be the one.  

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8 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

If I had to throw one out to go with the one that has to be in it, it would be the one.  

now the field is drawn/i'm just one/god help me

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12 hours ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Bad news - I can't get a feel for this race. Couldn't for the entire TC wtf

Good news - I think my wife and I are going to the OTB for the first time since Zenyatta won the BC

what's your location, CF8?

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6 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

what's your location, CF8?

I misspoke when i said OTB, sounds like we will (tentatively) be at Pocono Downs 

I'm about 90 mins west 

Edited by Cowboysfan8
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29 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I misspoke when i said OTB, sounds like we will (tentatively) be at Pocono Downs 

I'm about 90 mins west 

nice, they gonna be running a day card tmrw? lotta Standardbred bullrings do that to maximize the punters who come to bet ot TBreds - 

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2 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

can't get a handle on this crop - i'm boxing the Tapits

5-8-10?

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6 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

can't get a handle on this crop - i'm boxing the Tapits

not a bad angle at all - past decade is dotted with said progeny, most notably our boyo Tapwrit (though my fave was Tonalist outkicking Cali Chrome) ... plus Intrepid Heart also has the Toddfather Belmont shtick ("ignore Pletcher, leave on a stretcher") goin' for him, which is nice. 

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2 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

now the field is drawn/i'm just one/god help me

:lmao:

Hollllld my breath as I wish for caaaaash.........

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14 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

if you love Spinoff, you're gonna love THIS

all boxes checked? CHECK!

:deadhorse:

Yeah saw that, makes me happy. Changing jock also.

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9 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

:lmao:

Hollllld my breath as I wish for caaaaash.........

... please don't rake meeeeee!

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2 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

... please don't rake meeeeee!

:lmao::lmao::lmao:

 

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Damn it, I'm laughing so hard....

I gotta figure out my bets today - going to be out bar hopping tomorrow afternoon and I refuse to put any of the betting sites' mobile apps on my phone.  WAY too dangerous.  So, I have to get my bets down by about 1 PM EDT tomorrow.  Time to get to ticket building.

Edited by Evilgrin 72

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2 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Yeah saw that, makes me happy. Changing jock also.

dunno, man ... cat just might be that Key one needs to make a chaos tri jingle like a MFer ... gotta say, he is shaping up as the "wiseguy" tab - might drive him down some on the underneath totes, especially with the hometown Pletcher plunkers. 

1 minute ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

Damn it, I'm laughing so hard....

I gotta figure out my bets today - going to be out bar hopping tomorrow afternoon and I refuse to put any of the betting sites' mobile apps on my phone.  WAY too dangerous.  So, I have to get my bests down by about 1 PM EDT tomorrow.  Time to get to ticket building.

:lmao:

i hear ya on the mobile site safety concerns, and no one is more anal about that #### than me, i assure you, but ..  the TVG app never done me wrong - full slate of live tracks, replays, 'capping shtick, etc - plus cash outs take only a few days via snail mail check (my preferred method) - i was very hesitant to take that plunge, but very glad i did. 

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7 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

Damn it, I'm laughing so hard....

I gotta figure out my bets today - going to be out bar hopping tomorrow afternoon and I refuse to put any of the betting sites' mobile apps on my phone.  WAY too dangerous.  So, I have to get my bets down by about 1 PM EDT tomorrow.  Time to get to ticket building.

Back before my local otb went belly up, I always got my bets in by noon so I could start drinking by 1 and not even have to think anymore the rest of the day.

Edited by Leroy Hoard
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5 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

dunno, man ... cat just might be that Key one needs to make a chaos tri jingle like a MFer ... gotta say, he is shaping up as the "wiseguy" tab - might drive him down some on the underneath totes, especially with the hometown Pletcher plunkers. 

:lmao:

i hear ya on the mobile site safety concerns, and no one is more anal about that #### than me, i assure you, but ..  the TVG app never done me wrong - full slate of live tracks, replays, 'capping shtick, etc - plus cash outs take only a few days via snail mail check (my preferred method) - i was very hesitant to take that plunge, but very glad i did. 

It's also dangerous for me to be walking around with the ability to wager at any track on the fly at any given moment.  :lol:  If I do break down, I'll use TVG on your reco - already have an account there.  Although, I'm using NYRA right now b/c I have money in the account, the last 4 years I've just been setting up accounts at the start of TC season at all the major sites to take advantage of the dollar match bonuses.

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6 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Back before my local otb went belly up, I always got my bets in by noon so I could start drinking by 1 and not even have to think anymore the rest of the day.

That's what I need to do.  It's going to be myself, the Ox and Yams out on the town starting about 3 PM.  I can't even remember the last time the three of us were all out together with no one else, this is exceedingly rare these days.  Plus, we got tickets to see Yngwie Malmsteen shred a million miles an hour and do fat, sweaty leg kicks at 9:30 PM, so a high level of inebriation is required for that.

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3 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

It's also dangerous for me to be walking around with the ability to wager at any track on the fly at any given moment.  :lol:  

oh, #### yeah ... the biggest caveat of 24/7 access, no doubt :thumbup:

when i first opened it i was the proverbial kid in a candy store - a friending mutha ###### if ever one you saw - now, i'm constantly in transit during the day, so, i'd find myself 'capping on the rr ride in, then furiously scrambling for a minute to place my bets ... early days of the week were worst, 'cuz you're pinning coin on nickel claimers at bullrings like Fort Erie or Fonner Park or Suffolk Downs :unsure:  first posts were usually in the 12:30/12:50 range, so manymany afternoons i'd find myself on a serious ####### TILT by 1 o'clock - scrounging the harness rags for intervention at ####holes like Monticello/Freehold, only to see my "GET WELL" 12-1 shot be in the clear walking home down the stretch ONLY TO BREAK WITHIN MERE YARDS OF THE WIRE! 

did i mention i day drink?

took some discipline to let it go, started scaling the 'capping down to a select dozen tracks - working out much better these days .. 

... though i was tempted like a mo' the past 3 weeks to delve into the old ways - still have $400 in the TVG acct after my Preakness hit (took out $2,000), which i was saving as house money for the Belmont - but, sure as ####, i'd start checking the Monmouth PPs and saying "yeah, it's $400 now, but if i boot THIS one home i can triple that!!1!!" 

an older, wiser OTB did not succumb ... but, man, i'd be a lying sack o'#### if i said i don't miss that kinda action ... no better feeling than cashing a fatty.  period.  

 

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2 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

nice, they gonna be running a day card tmrw? lotta Standardbred bullrings do that to maximize the punters who come to bet ot TBreds - 

No.  ☹️

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23 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

That's what I need to do.  It's going to be myself, the Ox and Yams out on the town starting about 3 PM.  I can't even remember the last time the three of us were all out together with no one else, this is exceedingly rare these days.  Plus, we got tickets to see Yngwie Malmsteen shred a million miles an hour and do fat, sweaty leg kicks at 9:30 PM, so a high level of inebriation is required for that.

Yngwie is twice the guitarist he once was. Of course I am going by weight.

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38 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

 

 I refuse to put any of the betting sites' mobile apps on my phone.  WAY too dangerous.  

What's this now ?

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2 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

oh, #### yeah ... the biggest caveat of 24/7 access, no doubt :thumbup:

when i first opened it i was the proverbial kid in a candy store - a friending mutha ###### if ever one you saw - now, i'm constantly in transit during the day, so, i'd find myself 'capping on the rr ride in, then furiously scrambling for a minute to place my bets ... early days of the week were worst, 'cuz you're pinning coin on nickel claimers at bullrings like Fort Erie or Fonner Park or Suffolk Downs :unsure:  first posts were usually in the 12:30/12:50 range, so manymany afternoons i'd find myself on a serious ####### TILT by 1 o'clock - scrounging the harness rags for intervention at ####holes like Monticello/Freehold, only to see my "GET WELL" 12-1 shot be in the clear walking home down the stretch ONLY TO BREAK WITHIN MERE YARDS OF THE WIRE! 

did i mention i day drink?

took some discipline to let it go, started scaling the 'capping down to a select dozen tracks - working out much better these days .. 

... though i was tempted like a mo' the past 3 weeks to delve into the old ways - still have $400 in the TVG acct after my Preakness hit (took out $2,000), which i was saving as house money for the Belmont - but, sure as ####, i'd start checking the Monmouth PPs and saying "yeah, it's $400 now, but if i boot THIS one home i can triple that!!1!!" 

an older, wiser OTB did not succumb ... but, man, i'd be a lying sack o'#### if i said i don't miss that kinda action ... no better feeling than cashing a fatty.  period.  

 

I grew up within walking distance of Freehold Raceway, that's where I cut my teeth as a budding degenerate in the late 80s, betting harness racing based pretty much solely on jockeys.  Never saw thoroughbreds live until I went to my first Preakness in 1994.  I still remember taking a girlfriend to the track once, she wanted to put the entire $50 she had on a horse at 35-1 based on the name.  I talked her out of betting it all - back then $50 was a ton of dough for us as college kids, that kept us eating for days.  She revised her bet to $5.  Of course, I wouldn't be telling you this if the horse didn't win.  Instead of being happy she won $175, she was cursing me for costing her $1,750 which then literally would have been like a $50K score would be for me today.  I don't think she ever forgave me for that.

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1 minute ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Yngwie is twice the guitarist he once was. Of course I am going by weight.

:lmao::lmao::lmao:

 

I heard he's actually slimmed back down some.  We'll see, I know he was toting around a LOT of extra bulk there for a while.  Getting plastered for an Yngwie concert is great - if you only remember the first 10 minutes.... you've seen everything you're going to see for the next 90 anyway.  Plus, 9th row center orchestra seats were like $20 all in.  And there's a sports bar/pool hall right next door that has something like 50 craft beer bottles for $4 each.  Good stuff: Ballast Point Sculpin, Bell's Two Hearted, all the heavy hitters of the US craft brew scene - $4 each.  PBR is $3.50.  :lmao:

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7 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

Of course, I wouldn't be telling you this if the horse didn't win.  Instead of being happy she won $175, she was cursing me for costing her $1,750 which then literally would have been like a $50K score would be for me today.  I don't think she ever forgave me for that.

:doh:

Good one.

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2 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

:doh:

Good one.

I couldn't believe it.  At 35-1, that meant (in theory) there was a 97.2% chance she was going to be thanking me afterward for saving her $45.  Seeing as I had about $5 to my name, her getting felted would have left us in pretty awkward spot for the next week.  I thought I was doing her (and myself) a huge favor and that she'd be lavishing me with praise (via BJs) for my financial prudence, a quality she always possessed.  I had never seen this type of "reckless" behavior from her before when it came to finances.

 

Yeah.

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8 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

I grew up within walking distance of Freehold Raceway, that's where I cut my teeth as a budding degenerate in the late 80s, betting harness racing based pretty much solely on jockeys.  Never saw thoroughbreds live until I went to my first Preakness in 1994.  I still remember taking a girlfriend to the track once, she wanted to put the entire $50 she had on a horse at 35-1 based on the name.  I talked her out of betting it all - back then $50 was a ton of dough for us as college kids, that kept us eating for days.  She revised her bet to $5.  Of course, I wouldn't be telling you this if the horse didn't win.  Instead of being happy she won $175, she was cursing me for costing her $1,750 which then literally would have been like a $50K score would be for me today.  I don't think she ever forgave me for that.

:doh:

my tale of woe?

my gf gave me $100 to put on the 8/13 (our daughter's birthday) cold exacta in the '06 Derby (Barbaro over Bluegrass Cat) ... now, i loved BGC underneath, but i was hot as hell to drop as much as i could on Barbaro/Steppenwolfer (8/2 cold exacta) ... so i chisel her request down to a mere $10, unbeknownst to her, natch, and take the remaining $90 to sweeten my EXPERT/CAN'T MISS 8/2 COLD wager. 

yep. 

came in 8/13, $2 tri paid $598

we woulda cashed for close to 30 large had i simply followed her "hunch" ... good thing she had no clue about the parimutuel payout structure, plust the $2,800 we did cash kept her quite happy for a verrrrry long time. 

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2 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

good thing she had no clue about the parimutuel payout structure,

i bet - im also sure you tried to explain it reaaaaal clear like - right?

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5 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

:doh:

my tale of woe?

my gf gave me $100 to put on the 8/13 (our daughter's birthday) cold exacta in the '06 Derby (Barbaro over Bluegrass Cat) ... now, i loved BGC underneath, but i was hot as hell to drop as much as i could on Barbaro/Steppenwolfer (8/2 cold exacta) ... so i chisel her request down to a mere $10, unbeknownst to her, natch, and take the remaining $90 to sweeten my EXPERT/CAN'T MISS 8/2 COLD wager. 

yep. 

came in 8/13, $2 tri paid $598

we woulda cashed for close to 30 large had i simply followed her "hunch" ... good thing she had no clue about the parimutuel payout structure, plust the $2,800 we did cash kept her quite happy for a verrrrry long time. 

:lmao:

 

I can't believe you got away with it, that's amazing.

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