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otb_lifer

Of Lillies & Remains - A One Year Hiatus/A Maximum Ripoff/D&D Dumb Down Westeros/Happy Birfday Sid Vish *** An Honorable Travers ***

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8 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

i bet - im also sure you tried to explain it reaaaaal clear like - right?

 

8 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

:Dūüėā

 

5 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

:lmao:

 

I can't believe you got away with it, that's amazing.

... she approaches me about how we gonna split it ...

"naaahhhh, honey - you keep it all, it was your call - i'm cool with just seeing you happy!"

:lmao:

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2 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

 

 

... she approaches me about how we gonna split it ...

"naaahhhh, honey - you keep it all, it was your call - i'm cool with just seeing you happy!"

:lmao:

This is 500-level #### right here.

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11 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

 

 

... she approaches me about how we gonna split it ...

"naaahhhh, honey - you keep it all, it was your call - i'm cool with just seeing you happy!"

:lmao:

Truth too.

Brilliant.

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59 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

I heard he's actually slimmed back down some.  We'll see, I know he was toting around a LOT of extra bulk there for a while.  :lmao:

Along with Sinatra and Elvis, he was once a skinny guy.  Let me know if he can still fit in these jeans.

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Z9XsB7o5&id=442D2DA27D1137D07FEB1124015E663FED43F949&thid=OIP.Z9XsB7o556XizjwMvSJxHwHaKf&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fs-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com%2F736x%2F98%2F40%2F2f%2F98402f33e283cb1f4a4c7009189dcd9c.jpg&exph=850&expw=600&q=young+yngwie&simid=608024143700428216&selectedindex=109&ajaxhist=0&vt=1&eim=2,3,4,6,8&sim=11

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JFC, that link is bigger than modern day Yngwie ...

:o

Edited by otb_lifer
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Think I'm going in on the #6 on the strength of that article.  I have no more good ideas of my own.  This way I can blame others when I lose and stop hating on my own damn self.

 

Also, anybody playing the G2 New York today?  Here's the PP for the lasses....

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1 hour ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I will.  He definitely beefed up there for a while, but recent photos I've seen indicated he lost a lot of that weight.

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29 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Think I'm going in on the #6 on the strength of that article.  I have no more good ideas of my own.  This way I can blame others when I lose and stop hating on my own damn self.

Always good strategy to blame others unless you win in which case it was expert capping by yourself.  Based on the whole of what I've read so far here and there, the 6 and the 10 are my keys. 

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I'm ready to toss the 6 entirely.  Someone talk me out of it.

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2 minutes ago, Evilgrin 72 said:

I'm ready to toss the 6 entirely.  Someone talk me out of it.

Don't toss the 6 entirely.

;)

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3 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

Don't toss the 6 entirely.

;)

 

2 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

If ya need more EG - sorry. :(

 

:lmao:

Not compelling....

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Belmont Day appetizer - obligatory gushing over the greatest performance. EVER.   and, yeah, i mean in any sport, with the stakes that high - total dominance - a ####### BEAST.

each quarter was faster than the previous one - breaking the record by 2+ seconds - HOW WAS THIS POSSIBLE?

 

:tebow:

Edited by otb_lifer
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51 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

Belmont Day

So - when is this glorious day?

I kid.

 

I may attempt my 1st ticket selection since 2008. I am not gonna bet any money, but a pick here only costs some potential face. The only advice I have given so far, was to @Evilgrin 72 - Don't toss the 6 entirely. Thus, I must include 6 as a key-in. 

So, who is this 6?

I think I will start there.

 

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2 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

So - when is this glorious day?

I kid.

 

I may attempt my 1st ticket selection since 2008. I am not gonna bet any money, but a pick here only costs some potential face. The only advice I have given so far, was to @Evilgrin 72 - Don't toss the 6 entirely. Thus, I must include 6 as a key-in. 

So, who is this 6?

I think I will start there.

 

#6 Spinoff 

checks every last box for this race ... with flying colors.  

was outkicked in the La. Derby by a real tomato can, then got stuck in the mud across tge street from Casa de MoCS. 

he is now officially the "Wiseguy Horse" - confirmed by my 'capping buddy wetting his willie over this equine. 

we have two horses on the outside who deserve favoritism, but they are no mortal locks by any stretch - greater animals than them have faltered here - Big Sandy's stretch is the graveyard of champions. 

so, this #6 intrigues on many levels ... a very solid KEY, if one is key on keying the key. 

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1 minute ago, otb_lifer said:

#6 Spinoff 

checks every last box for this race ... with flying colors.  

was outkicked in the La. Derby by a real tomato can, then got stuck in the mud across tge street from Casa de MoCS. 

he is now officially the "Wiseguy Horse" - confirmed by my 'capping buddy wetting his willie over this equine. 

we have two horses on the outside who deserve favoritism, but they are no mortal locks by any stretch - greater animals than them have faltered here - Big Sandy's stretch is the graveyard of champions. 

so, this #6 intrigues on many levels ... a very solid KEY, if one is key on keying the key. 

My gut led me there. So, I will digest some more on this bugger.

As my big KEY tho - wow - that would be some mojo movin moxie.

I like it so far.

Have you settled in on your details yet?

Not ask'n for em - just curious. When I used to play at doing this, we never bet till last possible moment. We kept eyes in the paddocks and on the path to the track. Trying to get the feel as close to post as possible.

Can that even be done online?

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1 minute ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

My gut led me there. So, I will digest some more on this bugger.

As my big KEY tho - wow - that would be some mojo movin moxie.

I like it so far.

Have you settled in on your details yet?

Not ask'n for em - just curious. When I used to play at doing this, we never bet till last possible moment. We kept eyes in the paddocks and on the path to the track. Trying to get the feel as close to post as possible.

Can that even be done online?

oh, hellz yeah, MoX ... i will definitely be a last minute plunker today - still gotta see how Tax and MFer are moving prior to ... i still don't buy that they are legit 100% sound. 

also gonna be a tad on the warmer side today up here ... these cats gotta go eat 12 panels of a cuppy surface, so anyone lathered up in the post parade will raise some flags.

as per sneaking the bet in last minute, very doable online - i snuck that Preakness wager in with roughly 1 minute to spare.

the great luxury of doing this from a mobile device is not having to run to a ####### window after seeing the last second peripherals- now, sites have crashed on big betting days (TVG was overloaded for the Derby a few years running), but no issues the past couple years ... today is a huge day, but nowhere near the scope of the KD, so should be smooooove sailing. 

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On 6/6/2019 at 6:10 AM, Leroy Hoard said:

But give the #6 Spinoff a good look,  seems like a dry track and a decent trip might put this guy in the mix at 15-1.

OK - here is another 6'er.

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18 hours ago, General Malaise said:

Think I'm going in on the #6 on the strength of that article.  I have no more good ideas of my own.  This way I can blame others when I lose and stop hating on my own damn self.

 

Also, anybody playing the G2 New York today?  Here's the PP for the lasses....

Woo hoo! 

Another 6er.

Maybe I was reading closer than I realized.

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1 hour ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

My gut led me there. So, I will digest some more on this bugger.

It seems it was not my gut.

Sorry guys, I tried to ignore your pony posts, but I could not.

 

6 is my KEY.

thnx

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so track was playing fast yesterday ... bodes well for the pressers/stalkers - dunno how much of a cushion closers like Sir Winston can give if that holds today ... Tac and WoW and Tax and Signoff gonna draft Joevia for 2 minutes, then they will be in great position as the speedster fades ... and i'll be damned if i am intrigued on leaving that lil' ##### on my tix now - speed kills, and he's got it - no way he wins or even places, but ya gotta take the chance underneath for show dough and to bottom out tris/supers - still think him and BW are the easiest tosses if i had to wager right now, but ... this is a very muddled crop - i mean, who in the flyin' #### saw Everfast placing in Pimlico?

meh, cat will most likely finish OTM and way up the track, but - butbutbut - but

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51 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

OK - here is another 6'er.

I was the first here to mention the 6 but if he runs off the board I will be the last to mention him again.

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8 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I was the first here to mention the 6 but if he runs off the board I will be the last to mention him again.

No worries - I'll keep reminding you.

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9 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I was the first here to mention the 6 but if he runs off the board I will be the last to mention him again.

doing cursory poking around this morn ... various sites, friends who wager, etc - and this Spinoff is all the rage - ####, he might just be "Wiseguyed" down enough to post time fave :D

because Pletcher, too ... he blows in the Derby, but he knows the Big Sandy. 

the horse deserves the love, can't fault his cred coming in ... but, again, losing a stretch battle to a knacker in La. has me juuuuust skeptical enough atm. 

that being said, he has a nice shot of topping this field - again, Tac and WoW are not exactly slam dunks up in here. 

Edited by otb_lifer
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4 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

doing cursory poking around this morn ... various sites, friends who wager, etc - and this Signoff is all the rage - ####, he might just be "Wiseguyed" down enough to post time fave :D

because Pletcher, too ... he blows in the Derby, but he knows the Big Sandy. 

the horse deserves the love, can't fault his cred coming in ... but, again, losing a stretch battle to a knacker in La. has me juuuuust skeptical enough atm. 

that being said, he has a nice shot of topping this field - again, Tac and WoW are not exactly slam dunks up in here. 

I still need to fill in my ticket.

What is the best place to track current odds and horse conditions? The kinda things that pull things together in the end?

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3 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

I still need to fill in my ticket.

What is the best place to track current odds and horse conditions? The kinda things that pull things together in the end?

haven't run across a live tote yet ... as far as the shape of the animals, i do have a buddy who will be attending today - hoping to hear from him soon, he's supposed to get there at 10.

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2 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

jfc, Intrepid Heart gettin' the early looks here, obscene that he's overlaid that much thus far while Spinny is underlaid - verrrrrrrrrrrry early, of course - guess the WISEGUY dough gonna come in real late for #6 :boxing:

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33 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

The post positions and betting odds at 9 a.m. for the 2019 Belmont Stakes include:

1. Joevia 16-1

2. Everfast 14-1

3. Master Fencer 11-1

4. Tax 11-1

5. Bourbon War 8-1

6. Spinoff 11-1

7. Sir Winston 8-1

8. Intrepid Heart 6-1

9. War of Will 7-2

10. Tacitus 5-2

 

Tacitus and War of Will dropping

Intrepid Heart at 6-1. - son of Tapit

Bourbon War, is at 8-1 in the betting after being 12-1 in the morning-line odds - son of Tapit

The long shot in the morning-line odds was Joevia at 30-1. Joevia also carries the longest odds in the betting, but at only 16-1. - not as much profit potential at the edge.

Edited by Man of Constant Sorrow
missed some of post position and odds - bad quoting

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5 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

The post positions and betting odds at 9 a.m. for the 2019 Belmont Stakes include:

1. Joevia 16-1

2. Everfast 14-1

3. Master Fencer 11-1

4. Tax 11-1

5. Bourbon War 8-1

6. Spinoff 11-1

7. Sir Winston 8-1

 

Tacitus and War of Will dropping

Intrepid Heart at 6-1. - son of Tapit

Bourbon War, is at 8-1 in the betting after being 12-1 in the morning-line odds - son of Tapit

The long shot in the morning-line odds was Joevia at 30-1. Joevia also carries the longest odds in the betting, but at only 16-1. - not as much profit potential at the edge.

Bourbon War once again inexplicably eatin' more ####### coin than a greased Joker Poker in a Bowery back alley

Edited by otb_lifer

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7 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

Happy Balcony Belmont Day, lifer!!

:clap:  GRAZIE! 

you still wanna box the Tappy kidz tri?  Intrepid takin' a ton of early coin.

:moneybag:

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7 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

:clap:  GRAZIE! 

you still wanna box the Tappy kidz tri?  Intrepid takin' a ton of early coin.

:moneybag:

If i was there, i'd be looking for the aniscule gonna steal this race cuz folks get all up in the distance, but the Belmont gets stole on the front end more than the other two TC races combined. (ETA: and this'n looks mega stealable)

When i looked at the pps on Intrepid i saw the kind of horse that, if he takes the bit today, dominates the 2nd half of 3yo seasons which havent already stamped their champion.

It was so anticlimactic to watch Justy knock over the final pin without you last year, that i just wanted to say again how good it is to have you back, ol' pal.

Edited by wikkidpissah
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40 minutes ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

The post positions and betting odds at 9 a.m. for the 2019 Belmont Stakes include:

1. Joevia 16-1

2. Everfast 14-1

3. Master Fencer 11-1

4. Tax 11-1

5. Bourbon War 8-1

6. Spinoff 11-1ÔĽŅ

7. Sir Winston 8-1

8. Intrepid Heart 6-1

9. War of Will 7-2

10. Tacitus 5-2

 

Tacitus and War of Will droppingÔĽŅ

Intrepid Heart at 6-1. - son of Tapit

Bourbon War, is at 8-1 in the betting after being 12-1 in the morning-line odds - son of Tapit

The long shot in the morning-line odds was Joevia at 30-1. Joevia also carries the longest odds in the betting, but at only 16-1. - not as much profit potential at the edge.

Wait a sec guys, am I using "dropping" the wrong way here?

Their "odds" of winning have lowered, but I think that is actually a "rising" rather than a "drop".

I am a little confused on how to word this.

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19 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

If i was there, i'd be looking for the aniscule gonna steal this race cuz folks get all up in the distance, but the Belmont gets stole on the front end more than the other two TC races combined. (ETA: and this'n looks mega stealable)

it really does - the more the onion is peeled the more stinky the figs read

When i looked at the pps on Intrepid i saw the kind of horse that, if he takes the bit today, dominates the 2nd half of 3yo seasons which havent already stamped their champion.

that middle(of the season) move you love so much

It was so anticlimactic to watch Justy knock over the final pin without you last year, that i just wanted to say again how good it is to have you back, ol' pal.

ditto on being back up in here with you lot!  i always glean golden nuggets from this equine cabal

:hifive:

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1 hour ago, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

Wait a sec guys, am I using "dropping" the wrong way here?

Their "odds" of winning have lowered, but I think that is actually a "rising" rather than a "drop".

I am a little confused on how to word this.

the key is to maximize the boom in the shamalama ding dong - dig?

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Just now, otb_lifer said:

the key is to maximize the boom in the shamalama ding dong - dig?

With this key, I'll set em free, We're gonna take the town So follow slappy!

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9 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

the key is to maximize the boom in the shamalama ding dong - dig?

I think.

My problem is trying to properly decipher Leroy's link using the terms that make sense to horse guys and odds guys.

I know that the odds shift for Tacitus and WoW has increased their potential payoff.

Quote

David Aragona established Tacitus as a 9-5 favorite to win the 151st Belmont Stakes in the morning-line odds on Tuesday after the post-position draw, with War of Will at 2-1.

In live betting odds at 9 a.m. CDT Saturday, the wagering did not favor the horses quite so much but still liked them as a solid one-two, with Tacitus at 5-2 and War of Will at 7-2.

Tac = 9-5 -----> 5-2

WoW = 2-1 -----> 7-2

Thus, they offer better gains than this morning. Thus, I said they were "dropping".

After reading some more, I now think I should have said "rising".

I see what it means for my bet, but I don't know the right way to describe the shift.

This caused me problems when I was doing some other things to fill my ticket.

I am not real good with the lingo.

Edited by Man of Constant Sorrow

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Just now, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

I think.

My problem is trying to properly decipher Leroy's link using the terms that make sense to horse guys and odds guys.

I know that the odds shift for Tacitus and WoW has increased their potential payoff.

Tac = 9-5 -----> 5-2

WoW = 2-1 -----> 7-2

Thus, they offer better gains than this morning. Thus, I said they were "lowering".

After reading some more, I now think I should have said "rising".

I see what it means for my bet, but I don't know they right way to describe the shift.

This caused me problems when I was doing some other things to fill my ticket.

I am not real good with the lingo.

let's just say that there is no way in hell those two stay at such generous odds ... hell, i'll plunk 20k dwn on WoW if i got  7/2  :bye:

expect Tac to be 6/5, WoW 9/5 by post time. 

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just saw yesterday's vet report: 

TAX - given 2  ltrs. IV for dehydration

MFer - treated with antibiotic IV for mild blister/inflammation 

we knew those two had some issues, but the red flag here is TACITUS getting a nice dose of antib's for upper respiratory mucus plug :unsure:

ETA: @wikkidpissah - your thoughts from your experience in the sheds?

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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18 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

just saw yesterday's vet report: 

TAX - given 2  ltrs. IV for dehydration

MFer - treated with antibiotic IV for mild blister/inflammation 

we knew those two had some issues, but the red flag here is TACITUS getting a nice dose of antib's for upper respiratory mucus plug :unsure:

I've never seen this before. Can you post a link please so I can check it out other days?

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4 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I've never seen this before. Can you post a link please so I can check it out other days?

yeah, i was gonna directly link here, but i'm on my mobile, pdf won't click on this device - will rectify later on

ETA: imgur of Tac's report

@Cowboysfan8

Edited by otb_lifer
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1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:

just saw yesterday's vet report: 

TAX - given 2  ltrs. IV for dehydration

MFer - treated with antibiotic IV for mild blister/inflammation 

we knew those two had some issues, but the red flag here is TACITUS getting a nice dose of antib's for upper respiratory mucus plug :unsure:

ETA: @wikkidpissah - your thoughts from your experience in the sheds?

 

i assume he's already on lasix. horses have more lung than airway - since their horse is top-speeding for approx 30 seconds longer than he ever has, they're just makling sure his passges stay most clear

ETA: no antibiotics in that Tacitus vet report. they cant use the antihistimines people use because they have ephedrine in em, so they gotta load up on expectorants & such. this all looks tertiary to me

 

Edited by wikkidpissah
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31 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

i assume he's already on lasix. horses have more lung than airway - since their horse is top-speeding for approx 30 seconds longer than he ever has, they're just makling sure his passges stay most clear

ETA: no antibiotics in that Tacitus vet report. they cant use the antihistimines people use because they have ephedrine in em, so they gotta load up on expectorants & such. this all looks tertiary to me

 

yeah, the hullabaloo has been scant, would've heard more if this was major, but ... still - how many times we hear from the trainer after the race "he had some mucus, was having a bit of trouble out there"

i'm sure they are doing their tight best #### to have this cat fit and ready, and i value your insights very much ... however, if someone was looking for even the slightest reason to jump ship, well ... 

 

 

 

 

 

PS- I NEED GLASSES THOUGHT IT SAID ANTIB'S NOT ANTIHISTS 

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Gonna roll out a trifecta box for the three Tapit horses. I really like Tacitus and Intrepid Heart. BW not so much.

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6 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Gonna roll out a trifecta box for the three Tapit horses. I really like Tacitus and Intrepid Heart. BW not so much.

best of luck - but friggin' BW should be running at Parx today, not Big Sandy - easy toss, if he beats me i'll eat MoCS hat

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Well, no Balcony Belmont today!

Just watched the Acorn and the jockey of the 9 (3rd fave) sat a perfect balcony trip - the absolute way to win Belmont's long one-turn races - and not only did she not pick up & put down the winner, she couldnt pick up an inch on the dying rabbit (21, 43 breaks) in the stretch.

I'm switching to the other Pletcher horse, Spinoff, w the the three Tapits boxed under. If the speed bias holds, even Joevia has to be factored into the exotics. The Met Mile should tell a lot, so will give a bias update then.

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