What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Dynasty - rather have one 1st, or three 2nds? (1 Viewer)

Lets assume either a 10 or 12 team league. Assume 2020 picks where they could fall anywhere (so a s

  • One 1st

    Votes: 60 54.1%
  • Three 2nds

    Votes: 51 45.9%

  • Total voters
    111

matttyl

Footballguy
Help settle a discussion, maybe.

Lets assume either a 10 or 12 team league.  Assume 2020 picks where they could fall anywhere (so a startup dynasty league that hasn't even drafted players yet).  Would you rather have a single 2020 1st, or three 2020 2nds.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It depends on how early the 1st and the 2nds are.  There is a big difference between an early first and a late first in terms of hit rate.

Obviously three early seconds > one late first AND one early first > three late seconds.

I did some back-of-a-napkin-level analysis on the hit rates per draft slot of different picks a while back... I'll post it if I can find it.

 
Next season is supposed to be very top heavy.  A 30-50% chance at a top player is worth more than three alright ones.

 
Next season is supposed to be very top heavy.  A 30-50% chance at a top player is worth more than three alright ones.
Was hoping to make it in general, so not related to a specific draft.  My apologies for listed 2020 specifically, just any random year.

i get that it depends on if they are early or late picks, but the idea is that it’s totally random or unknown.  In a 10 team draft it could be 5 or 6 “on average”, but it could be 1 and it could be 10.  If totally random, I’d think you’d rather have the 12, 15 and 19 than the 6 most years.  

 
Saw an interesting study on a similar situation.  Based upon the ratio of starters garnered from the 3rd round and lower vs those drafted in the 1st and 2nd, NFL teams that trade down in the draft actually reap greater benefits than those who trade up.  It was counterintuitive to me until I read the report and verified the data set.  

Seems the smart money would be taking the 3 2nds.  Ask New England.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'll try to find the data I came up with - but IIRC 2nd round picks were pretty close to the success rates of 1st round picks with the exception of the top 3 overall picks.

Eta: in non superflex 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The 1st because for the next year, it will have a LOT more trade value than the seconds if I want to flip it for a star player.

If it ends up top 3, it would retain as much trade value as the 2nds.  

And if it ends up a late 1st, it can likely still be moved for two of those 2nds, so its value insulation is unrivalled.

 
The 1st because for the next year, it will have a LOT more trade value than the seconds if I want to flip it for a star player.

If it ends up top 3, it would retain as much trade value as the 2nds.  

And if it ends up a late 1st, it can likely still be moved for two of those 2nds, so its value insulation is unrivalled.
Voted for the one based on a very similar line of logic. That said, if we changed the hypothesis just slightly and said these picks could never be traded away, and I had to keep them, I would change that vote to the three 2s. Hit rates in the second half of the first really aren't much better then anywhere in the 2nd. Certainly not enough to justify 1 pick for 3.

In devy leagues it's the first all day long.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This was brought up in a pretty standard, non ppr, 10 team idp dynasty league.   

Looking back at our past drafts (I’ll see if I can post some in a bit), it looks like you’d be much better off with the 2nd.  Example - any one of Royce Freeman, Penny, Calvin Ridley, or Ronald Jones vs roquan Smith, Kerryon Johnson, baker mayfield.  The year before - Corey Davis or dalvin cook (so far) or mike Williams or oj Howard vs Alvin kamara AND Kareem Hunt AND juju. Yes, I didn’t mention the duds in the 2nd. Going back to a point where you can see their career in more clarity - kelvin benjamin or Jordan Matthews vs devonte freeman and devonte Adams and Allen Robinson.  

 
Voted for the one based on a very similar line of logic. That said, if we changed the hypothesis just slightly and said these picks could never be traded away, and I had to keep them, I would change that vote to the three 2s. Hit rates in the second half of the first really aren't much better then anywhere in the 2nd. Certainly not enough to justify 1 pick for 3.

In devy leagues it's the first all day long.
In devy leagues where the top rookie prospects are mostly spoken for it reduces the actual value of a 1st round pick (as well as the 2nd round picks) but the chance of getting a early 1st isn't as valuable in this type of format.

So I am not sure why that would swing your decision the other way?

I guess I am alone here in that I think the 3 second round picks (without knowing their actual order next year) are more valuable than a 1st round pick which could be a high pick, but just as likely could be a late pick and therefore not worth much more than those 2nd round picks.

The only scenario I see where the 1st round pick is more valuable is if it is top 3 or something and therefore a elite prospect. Otherwise I would like to take my chances with the 3 picks, which I also consider to be more overall capital.

Based on this poll I should be able to ask for more than I was thinking.

 
I voted for the 3 seconds but misread the post and would change my vote to the first. Thought it was a 2019 first, in which case I would take the 3 seconds next year

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The chance of landing a top 3 pick, and specifically the number 1 pick, only exists if you select the first. I’ll take my chance of landing one of those picks and take the first because that value FAR outweighs anything you’ll get in the second.

 
I'll take the three seconds but only this year because it is such a crap shoot. Rather have three lottery picks instead of one.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I guess I am alone here in that I think the 3 second round picks (without knowing their actual order next year) are more valuable than a 1st round pick which could be a high pick, but just as likely could be a late pick and therefore not worth much more than those 2nd round picks.

The only scenario I see where the 1st round pick is more valuable is if it is top 3 or something and therefore a elite prospect. Otherwise I would like to take my chances with the 3 picks, which I also consider to be more overall capital.

Based on this poll I should be able to ask for more than I was thinking.
Depends.  To a rebuilder, the 3 seconds are a great way to build quick.  But a contender may prefer one star in a scarce roster spot, and not have space to roster 3 slower-developing prospects without cutting someone valuable.  acontext always matters,

 
Depends.  To a rebuilder, the 3 seconds are a great way to build quick.  But a contender may prefer one star in a scarce roster spot, and not have space to roster 3 slower-developing prospects without cutting someone valuable.  acontext always matters,
Yeah I am more accustomed to deeper rosters and more teams as well. So the 2nd round picks are worth more I think than in 20 or less roster spots. The 2nd round picks tend to be below replacement level in those leagues so only the 1st rounders matter on cut day.

 
3 mid 2nds are worth more than 1 mid 1st, but 1 random 1st is worth more than 3 random 2nds due to the chance of being a top pick worth exponentially more 

 
I think it really depends on the draft class.  This year, I’d take 3 random 2nds over one random 1st.  Next season, I’d probably go the opposite.  

Seeing how an NFL franchise like the Colts operates has started to make me question how we operate in dynasty.  As much as we all like to believe we are more knowledgeable about players than our league mates the truth is that there is a still a ton of luck involved, and we all might be better off with more bullets in the chamber so to speak.  

 
I think it really depends on the draft class.  This year, I’d take 3 random 2nds over one random 1st.  Next season, I’d probably go the opposite.  

Seeing how an NFL franchise like the Colts operates has started to make me question how we operate in dynasty.  As much as we all like to believe we are more knowledgeable about players than our league mates the truth is that there is a still a ton of luck involved, and we all might be better off with more bullets in the chamber so to speak.  
In a vacuum, sure.  It makes sense for a deep roster, 32-team operation like the NFL where the waiver wire is so thin you are terrified to have to start anyone from it.  😛

In shallower leagues, there is real value to having two more roster spots, and if there is adequate replacement talent on the wire it can work better to stick with the first.

 I also think the talent drops off faster in fantasy vs. real life, since most leagues dont need 5 offensive linemen, and many dont need defense.  When I was in a 32-team fantasy league I would not have traded a 1 for three 2s.  Those twos would have been effectively 4th or 5th round picks in a normal 12-team league.

In short, the NFL is a very different animal than most fantasy leagues.

 
I think it really depends on the draft class.  This year, I’d take 3 random 2nds over one random 1st.  Next season, I’d probably go the opposite.  

Seeing how an NFL franchise like the Colts operates has started to make me question how we operate in dynasty.  As much as we all like to believe we are more knowledgeable about players than our league mates the truth is that there is a still a ton of luck involved, and we all might be better off with more bullets in the chamber so to speak.  
You mean how the Patriots have drafted for years right?

 
Say you end up with pick 12.  Chances are most years you can deal pick 12 for a couple mid-late 2nds.

Well worth losing out on the value of an early 2nd for a reasonable chance at a high pick.

Obviously the answer to this question could change based on the draft, like this one, but if you give me this option and tell me to choose it for the next 10 years I choose the 1st in every league setting.

 
I'll take the 3 2nds all day, everyday. We're talking about 3 players out of the top 24 in dynasty.
You are trading back to gain an extra player that is still in the top 24. You have one more starter
from the top 24 then everyone else, 

 
If it is random then you should assume average values so in a 12 team it would be

1.6 1/2 for the  2.5, 2.6, 2.7

That is a slight advantage for the 1st imo.  Add in the upside of getting the 1.1. 1.2 etc, versus 2.1, 2.2 etc and I take the 1st every time.
So 1.1 > 2.1, 2.2, 2.3

What about:

1.12 ? 2.10, 2.11, 2.12

 
In devy leagues where the top rookie prospects are mostly spoken for it reduces the actual value of a 1st round pick (as well as the 2nd round picks) but the chance of getting a early 1st isn't as valuable in this type of format.

So I am not sure why that would swing your decision the other way?

I guess I am alone here in that I think the 3 second round picks (without knowing their actual order next year) are more valuable than a 1st round pick which could be a high pick, but just as likely could be a late pick and therefore not worth much more than those 2nd round picks.

The only scenario I see where the 1st round pick is more valuable is if it is top 3 or something and therefore a elite prospect. Otherwise I would like to take my chances with the 3 picks, which I also consider to be more overall capital.

Based on this poll I should be able to ask for more than I was thinking.
The first 3 or 4 picks are generally still 1st rounders in any other league. The quality of available players goes down MUCH faster, but often the top 2 or 3 picks are top 5 picks everywhere else also. A random first in a devy still has a 50-50 shot of being a "normal league first" quality player. And if that pick is top 3, you gain a huge advantage worth far more then 3 random devy 2nds. IN devy leagues (where 12 underclassmen are taken every year), most of you 2nd round picks are equivalent to a normal league 3rd .... not worthless, but mostly just random dart throws. And easily acquired!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just getting back around to this, was out of town on vacation last week.

This has garnered some good conversation in my 10 team dynasty league.  As I said above, I had gone back over the past drafts to look at actual results.  Here's some (with first round "duds" - which you could end up with just one of, highlighted, as well as second round "studs").

2018 draft -

1st - Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Michel, Freeman, Ridley, Ronald Jones, Penny, Sutton, DJ Moore

2nd - Gallup, Kerryon Johnson, Kirk, Gesicki, T Edmunds, R Smith, B Mayfield, L Jackson, Chandler Jones (was listed as a DL while playing LB), N Hines

2017 -

1st - Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, C Davis, Cook, M Williams, OJ Howard, Perine, Engram, M Lynch (was a FA)

2nd - Kupp, Kamara, Z Jones, J Ross, M Garrett, K Hunt, D Njoku, Joe Williams, D Foreman, C Samuel (Juju was 22nd, Deshaun Watson 28, Mahomes 33)

2016 -

1st - Zeke, L Treadwell, C Coleman, Doctson, M Thomas, S Shepard, Prosise, D Henry, K Dixon, D Booker

2nd - J Howard, T Boyd, W Fuller, Perkins, Goff, H Henry, K Drake, Paxton Lynch, Smallwood, Wentz

2015 -

1st - A Cooper, Gurley, Gordon, Kevin White, D Parker, Yeldon, Winston, Agholor, Green-Beckham, Perriman

2nd - T Coleman, Dorsett, A Abdullah, Matt Jones, Mariota, Funchess, Josh Hill, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Maxx Williams

2014 -

1st - Watkins, Sankey, M Evans, B Cooks, K Benjamin, J Matthews, Beckham, T West, Hyde, T Mason

2nd - Ebron, D Freeman, D Adams, Manziel, Bridgewater, C Latimer, Shazier, A Robinson, Mosley, J Hill (K Mack was 24, Landry was 28)

2013 -

1st - L Bell, Gio Bernard, T Austin, Montee Ball, Lacy, C Patterson, Hopkins, J Franklin, A Dobson, R Woods

2nd - Eifert, K Allen, M Lattimore, Z Stacy, C Michael, Arthur Brown LB, Z Ansah DL, M Wheaton, J Hunter, Ertz (Kelce was #21)

Can continue this back to 2004....but I think the trend has been set.  If it's totally random, it's pretty even in my mind and that's only counting in the sure fire top guy of a draft like Barkley, Fournette, Zeke, Cooper/Gurley, Bell.  I mean #2 overall picks have been busts twice as often as they have been hits the last 6 years in our league.  So you're betting on getting the #1 overall pick, which is only a 10% change in a 10 team league, 8% shot in a 12 teamer to offset the potential of getting 3 very solid starters.

 
I'm not so sure, statistically speaking.  Lets just assume that this dynasty rankings value chart from fantasy pros is semi-accurate - it's for a 12 teamer.

If you add up the "value" of all 12 first round picks, and divide by 12 - the average first rounder is worth 31.5 (42+42+42+36+36+36+24+24+24+24+24+24 = 378 / 12 = 31.5).  The average for a random second rounder is 15.5. That means that your average second is worth exactly half of your average first.  But you're getting three of them, not two.  The third one is a bonus. 

Here is another value chart, from this very site.  It has a random first valued at 12.4, and a random second valued at 5.  So they value two and a half random seconds the same as a random first.  But again, you're getting 3 of them, not 2.5 of them. 

I understand that if you knew you'd be getting a top 3 first you'd do that no question, but you have the same statistical shot at getting a top 3 first as you do a bottom three first. 

 
Just getting back around to this, was out of town on vacation last week.

This has garnered some good conversation in my 10 team dynasty league.  As I said above, I had gone back over the past drafts to look at actual results.  Here's some (with first round "duds" - which you could end up with just one of, highlighted, as well as second round "studs").

2018 draft -

1st - Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Michel, Freeman, Ridley, Ronald Jones, Penny, Sutton, DJ Moore

2nd - Gallup, Kerryon Johnson, Kirk, Gesicki, T Edmunds, R Smith, B Mayfield, L Jackson, Chandler Jones (was listed as a DL while playing LB), N Hines
If you are calling Guice and Moore a dud, then you haven't looked at their current dynasty value.

At the same time, Edmunds and Smith were bad picks in the 2nd round (relatively speaking) because Darius Leonard and Leighton Vander Esch matched or exceeded their output and could have been had off of waivers.

 
There are factors.  When is the draft, in May or end of August?

WHat are roster sizes?  Is it FFPC with 14 players kept, or huge dynasties with large taxi squads for players drafted in rounds 2-7?

Is is 2 QB, is it IDP?

 
If you are calling Guice and Moore a dud, then you haven't looked at their current dynasty value.

At the same time, Edmunds and Smith were bad picks in the 2nd round (relatively speaking) because Darius Leonard and Leighton Vander Esch matched or exceeded their output and could have been had off of waivers.
Well, it's hard if not impossible to judge who will be a stud or dud after one year - I did those pretty quickly and based off of what they've done up to this point. 

 
There are factors.  When is the draft, in May or end of August?

WHat are roster sizes?  Is it FFPC with 14 players kept, or huge dynasties with large taxi squads for players drafted in rounds 2-7?

Is is 2 QB, is it IDP?
I was trying to keep the question as general as possible.  Your basic 10-12 team dynasty league.  I'd say most are 1 QB, most aren't IDP (though mine is). 

I'm curious, though, on how those factors would impact your choice.  If the draft was today vs in 3 months, why would you pick one over the other?  And really I'm just talking about rookie only draft picks, so it wouldn't matter how many players are kept or what the roster size are, as we're only dealing with rookie only picks of that year. 

 
If you're talking entirely in the hypothetical, I think three random 2020 2nds are "more valuable" than a single random 2020 1st.

But you rarely are making a move like this completely in a vacuum.  To keep things completely hypothetical, how do you acquire those picks?  By making 4 trades (or making 3 trades and getting both 1st and 2nd from a single team). 

What are you giving up to get a 1st round pick in return?  It's a piece that is going to push that team's pick DOWN, in all likelihood.  So it's no longer a completely random 2020 1st, now it's a 2020 mid/late 1st.  The pieces you give up to get a 2nd round pick will be much less valuable, and probably won't contribute as much to the bottom line as the capital you gave away to get a 1st.

 
Just getting back around to this, was out of town on vacation last week.

This has garnered some good conversation in my 10 team dynasty league.  As I said above, I had gone back over the past drafts to look at actual results.  Here's some (with first round "duds" - which you could end up with just one of, highlighted, as well as second round "studs").

2018 draft -

1st - Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Michel, Freeman, Ridley, Ronald Jones, Penny, Sutton, DJ Moore

2nd - Gallup, Kerryon Johnson, Kirk, Gesicki, T Edmunds, R Smith, B Mayfield, L Jackson, Chandler Jones (was listed as a DL while playing LB), N Hines

2017 -

1st - Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, C Davis, Cook, M Williams, OJ Howard, Perine, Engram, M Lynch (was a FA)

2nd - Kupp, Kamara, Z Jones, J Ross, M Garrett, K Hunt, D Njoku, Joe Williams, D Foreman, C Samuel (Juju was 22nd, Deshaun Watson 28, Mahomes 33)

2016 -

1st - Zeke, L Treadwell, C Coleman, Doctson, M Thomas, S Shepard, Prosise, D Henry, K Dixon, D Booker

2nd - J Howard, T Boyd, W Fuller, Perkins, Goff, H Henry, K Drake, Paxton Lynch, Smallwood, Wentz

2015 -

1st - A Cooper, Gurley, Gordon, Kevin White, D Parker, Yeldon, Winston, Agholor, Green-Beckham, Perriman

2nd - T Coleman, Dorsett, A Abdullah, Matt Jones, Mariota, Funchess, Josh Hill, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Maxx Williams

2014 -

1st - Watkins, Sankey, M Evans, B Cooks, K Benjamin, J Matthews, Beckham, T West, Hyde, T Mason

2nd - Ebron, D Freeman, D Adams, Manziel, Bridgewater, C Latimer, Shazier, A Robinson, Mosley, J Hill (K Mack was 24, Landry was 28)

2013 -

1st - L Bell, Gio Bernard, T Austin, Montee Ball, Lacy, C Patterson, Hopkins, J Franklin, A Dobson, R Woods

2nd - Eifert, K Allen, M Lattimore, Z Stacy, C Michael, Arthur Brown LB, Z Ansah DL, M Wheaton, J Hunter, Ertz (Kelce was #21)

Can continue this back to 2004....but I think the trend has been set.  If it's totally random, it's pretty even in my mind and that's only counting in the sure fire top guy of a draft like Barkley, Fournette, Zeke, Cooper/Gurley, Bell.  I mean #2 overall picks have been busts twice as often as they have been hits the last 6 years in our league.  So you're betting on getting the #1 overall pick, which is only a 10% change in a 10 team league, 8% shot in a 12 teamer to offset the potential of getting 3 very solid starters.
Going to be highly league specific. I'd have to look it up but I did this same exercise in the dynasty trade thread a few years ago, and the 2.4 pick on average in my leagues (12 teams) appeared to be the cutoff point from solid percentages to total dart throws. After the 2.4, the hit rate was abysmal and heavily weighted towards TE's and QB's for hits after that point. Also for comparison, guys like Hunt, Kamara, & Kerryon were not 2nd rounders in my leagues.

Also most rookies don't light the world on fire and many guys who look great out the gate or in small sample sizes fall off.  One advantage of a 1st round pick is that many of the 1st round "duds" still retained trade value after a poor rookie year (RoJo being a huge exception here since his rookie year was so bad) and could be traded off if you didn't like how they looked. In some cases the 2nd rounders and later often got dropped or traded away as throw-ins only to breakout later on someone else's squad.

Even guys like Sankey, Kevin White, Parker, etc. still had trade value in year 2 or even 3 because of their pedigree.

 
I'm not so sure, statistically speaking.  Lets just assume that this dynasty rankings value chart from fantasy pros is semi-accurate - it's for a 12 teamer.

If you add up the "value" of all 12 first round picks, and divide by 12 - the average first rounder is worth 31.5 (42+42+42+36+36+36+24+24+24+24+24+24 = 378 / 12 = 31.5).  The average for a random second rounder is 15.5. That means that your average second is worth exactly half of your average first.  But you're getting three of them, not two.  The third one is a bonus. 

Here is another value chart, from this very site.  It has a random first valued at 12.4, and a random second valued at 5.  So they value two and a half random seconds the same as a random first.  But again, you're getting 3 of them, not 2.5 of them. 

I understand that if you knew you'd be getting a top 3 first you'd do that no question, but you have the same statistical shot at getting a top 3 first as you do a bottom three first. 
This analysis completely discounts the cost of the roster spots.  While three 2nds likely do have more value than one 1st if we start with empty rosters, most successful fantasy owners have their rosters “full” of players they like or expect to develop.  Actually using the three 2nds rather than one 1st requires cutting two more of those players, which needs tombe subtracted from your total.

Also the fact that, if players actually have these values once drafted, ystarting one 15-point player in one starting slot is vastly better than taking up three starter slots with 8-point players and most people will understandably value the one better chance at a stud over the three longer shots.

 
I was trying to keep the question as general as possible.  Your basic 10-12 team dynasty league.  I'd say most are 1 QB, most aren't IDP (though mine is). 

I'm curious, though, on how those factors would impact your choice.  If the draft was today vs in 3 months, why would you pick one over the other?  And really I'm just talking about rookie only draft picks, so it wouldn't matter how many players are kept or what the roster size are, as we're only dealing with rookie only picks of that year. 
Roster size is actually the biggest factor.  With small roster sizes you cant keep adding a bunch of guys who would take longer to either develop or to move up in the depth chart.   

If I take three 2nds (really 4 since I would still have my own) for three years in a row, that is 12 players drafted in the 2nd round.  It's just not possible to keep all of those players, and you will lose value by default.  If the rosters a larger then that wont be the case, especially with taxi squads.

 
It all depends on roster space. In my super-ultra deep league i’ll take three 2nds. Everywhere else I want the first. 

 
This analysis completely discounts the cost of the roster spots.  While three 2nds likely do have more value than one 1st if we start with empty rosters, most successful fantasy owners have their rosters “full” of players they like or expect to develop.  Actually using the three 2nds rather than one 1st requires cutting two more of those players, which needs tombe subtracted from your total.
Actually the picks do not take roster spots until you actually use the picks to draft players.

I view the draft picks as fluid capital that can be used in trades. For example if I want to trade a player who is close to the same value as another player I want, the 2nd round pick can often be enough to make the deal interesting if they also see the two players as close to the same value.

In the scenario you describe with a roster full of good players some times the only way to keep churning value is by trading one of those players for picks 

Timing if this can create incremental value as well when the picks appreciate.

Also the fact that, if players actually have these values once drafted, ystarting one 15-point player in one starting slot is vastly better than taking up three starter slots with 8-point players and most people will understandably value the one better chance at a stud over the three longer shots.
Of course. However as is being pointed out those 2nd round picks can become 15 point players too.

 
Actually the picks do not take roster spots until you actually use the picks to draft players.

I view the draft picks as fluid capital that can be used in trades. For example if I want to trade a player who is close to the same value as another player I want, the 2nd round pick can often be enough to make the deal interesting if they also see the two players as close to the same value.

In the scenario you describe with a roster full of good players some times the only way to keep churning value is by trading one of those players for picks 

Timing if this can create incremental value as well when the picks appreciate.

Of course. However as is being pointed out those 2nd round picks can become 15 point players too.
That’s fair, but I gave my view much earlier that in terms of perceived trade value, one first likely trumps 3 seconds.  So if we are talking tradable assets rather than players I would still want the first.

 
Good conversation all around.

I brought it up myself mainly because I've had a lot of luck drafting in the 2nd (and 3rd) in the past few years.  I landed Kerryon in the second last year, and landed Hunt in the 2nd and Juju and D Watson in the 3rd two years ago.  I was able to do so because of some questionable picks by other owners in the early rounds allowing those players to fall - which I understand is going to be league specific.  It seems to me that you get more ammo to build a more well rounded team. 

Also, my league in question is 10 team, 31 man rosters, with one extra IR spot and 3 practice squad spots for rookies (so up to 35 total rostered) with IDPs - start 1 qb, 1 rb, 2 wrs, 2 flex, 1 te, 1 k, 2 of each DL, LB and DBs.  14 total starters.

 
I'm not so sure, statistically speaking.  Lets just assume that this dynasty rankings value chart from fantasy pros is semi-accurate - it's for a 12 teamer.

If you add up the "value" of all 12 first round picks, and divide by 12 - the average first rounder is worth 31.5 (42+42+42+36+36+36+24+24+24+24+24+24 = 378 / 12 = 31.5).  The average for a random second rounder is 15.5. That means that your average second is worth exactly half of your average first.  But you're getting three of them, not two.  The third one is a bonus. 

Here is another value chart, from this very site.  It has a random first valued at 12.4, and a random second valued at 5.  So they value two and a half random seconds the same as a random first.  But again, you're getting 3 of them, not 2.5 of them. 

I understand that if you knew you'd be getting a top 3 first you'd do that no question, but you have the same statistical shot at getting a top 3 first as you do a bottom three first. 
In terms of FBG-centric dynasty calculators, Jeff's right here is the one you need. It's configurable with all manner of league, roster, and lineup settings.

Based on a 12-team league with 26-man rosters, Pasquino says pick 1.07 is worth 670 points, far more than 3 mid-2nds (about 400). You can play with the settings some, but you have to plug in a really large league with some really deep rosters to make the two sides close to even.

Personally, I think his value formulas overstate the gap a little, as I'd consider a (known) 1.07 and three (known) mid-2nds close to equal. But when you factor in the nonlinear upside of an unknown 1st that could be 1.01 or 1.02, I agree with him that the 1st is the big winner here.

 
Depends.  To a rebuilder, the 3 seconds are a great way to build quick.  But a contender may prefer one star in a scarce roster spot, and not have space to roster 3 slower-developing prospects without cutting someone valuable.  acontext always matters,
This.

 
In terms of FBG-centric dynasty calculators, Jeff's right here is the one you need. It's configurable with all manner of league, roster, and lineup settings.

Based on a 12-team league with 26-man rosters, Pasquino says pick 1.07 is worth 670 points, far more than 3 mid-2nds (about 400). You can play with the settings some, but you have to plug in a really large league with some really deep rosters to make the two sides close to even.

Personally, I think his value formulas overstate the gap a little, as I'd consider a (known) 1.07 and three (known) mid-2nds close to equal. But when you factor in the nonlinear upside of an unknown 1st that could be 1.01 or 1.02, I agree with him that the 1st is the big winner here.
Hmm, I'm not seeing the 670 anywhere (the chart near the bottom has it around 920 - roughly equal to the 16, 17, and 18 combined) but I think that chart is on a brand new league start up - not just solely rookie picks. 

 
Hmm, I'm not seeing the 670 anywhere (the chart near the bottom has it around 920 - roughly equal to the 16, 17, and 18 combined) but I think that chart is on a brand new league start up - not just solely rookie picks. 
There are options to select startup picks vs. rookie picks on the SS. I assume they mean what the labels say - haven’t tested them.

 
I'm not so sure, statistically speaking.  Lets just assume that this dynasty rankings value chart from fantasy pros is semi-accurate - it's for a 12 teamer.

If you add up the "value" of all 12 first round picks, and divide by 12 - the average first rounder is worth 31.5 (42+42+42+36+36+36+24+24+24+24+24+24 = 378 / 12 = 31.5).  The average for a random second rounder is 15.5. That means that your average second is worth exactly half of your average first.  But you're getting three of them, not two.  The third one is a bonus. 

Here is another value chart, from this very site.  It has a random first valued at 12.4, and a random second valued at 5.  So they value two and a half random seconds the same as a random first.  But again, you're getting 3 of them, not 2.5 of them. 

I understand that if you knew you'd be getting a top 3 first you'd do that no question, but you have the same statistical shot at getting a top 3 first as you do a bottom three first. 
Average Schmaverage.

You can’t get the 1.01 or 1.02 if you’re drafting in the second round. The chance of getting a super early pick far outweighs whatever the average calculation turns out to be.

IMO

 
I’d rather have 3 top 20/24 picks than 1 on a new team. Now if your still getting all your normal picks with the 1st, that may change my choice. 

The thing is would you rather get 1 elite guy vs 3 very/good guys. 

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top