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Stephen Holloway

2019 Waiting on your QB - Who do you like late?

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Most seasons it just makes a lot of sense to wait on drafting your quarterback and this year seems to be setting up as the Poster Year for waiting. Reviewing current ADP, there seems to be plentiful options that could finish in the top ten QBs going much later than the top ten according to ADP. The following list is the ADP from Footballguys.com this morning with position, name and ADP provided:

  1. Mahomes 30
  2. Luck 46
  3. Watson 49
  4. Rodgers 50
  5. Mayfield 63
  6. Ryan 69
  7. Wilson 72
  8. Brees 83
  9. Newton 84
  10. Wentz 89
  11. Goff 90
  12. Winston 96
  13. Roethlisberger 107
  14. Rivers 111
  15. Prescott 117
  16. Trubisky 118
  17. Garoppalo 124
  18. Brady 128
  19. Jackson 131
  20. Allen 132
  21. Murray 136
  22. Cousins 139
  23. Darnold 159
  24. Carr 167
  25. Dalton 194
  26. Mariota 204

Roethlisberger lost Antonio Brown, but he finished 3rd a year ago and has finished in the top ten in four of the last six seasons. Rivers has finished in the top ten in three of the past six seasons. Cousins has been among the top ten for the past four straight season. Brady is 42, yet he finished as QB2 in 2015 and 2017. Young up and comers Jackson, Allen and Murray all have potential to run for significant yardage and touchdowns, so if they can be decent passers, the sky is the limit.

Are you planning to wait and if so, who do you prefer?

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25 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

That garrapolo murray combo looks good

If I am set at two quality starters at RB and WR with a solid TE and a one or two quality depth guys, taking Rivers/Garrapolo in consecutive rounds just might be my move.

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Cousins was the one that immediately jumped out at me, but RIvers in the 10th round followed up by Cousins looks like a solid plan.

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People sleep on Dak, and he finishes as a QB1 every year. I wouldn't feel great about owning just him, but a combo of him and Murray or Cousins would be just fine, and just play the matchups. 

Also, in a Best Ball League I'd be very happy to pair Allen with a more reliable QB and get a handful of those 35+ pt weeks. 

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I feel like I'm going to be the last one in my league to draft a QB. I like Winston, Rivers, Garoppolo and I think Kyler Murray. Murray has the potential to light the world on fire this year but could also bust but he doesn't cost much.

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if I wait....I'll take Goff and a piece of that offensive pie...

and l'd still roll with Brady at that price ...

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2 hours ago, Stephen Holloway said:

Cousins was the one that immediately jumped out at me, but RIvers in the 10th round followed up by Cousins looks like a solid plan.

:homer:I know this may be a surprise to you, but I agree with this.

I have noticed that folks are really down on Cousins this year and there are two main reasons for that I think. One is completely irrational, that people begrudge Cousins getting paid a lot of money and they do not think he is worth that, ergo he is a bad QB. The second is one I am pondering over myself, how much of an improvement will their be to the Vikings offensive line?

If the Vikings actually can run the ball competently, will they lean on that more? How much more?

Mike Clay did some projections for the Vikings that to me look like career lows across the board.

535 passing attempts 371 completions (69%) 3911 yards (7.3 ypa) 26 TD 10 int (34 sacks) 44 rushing attempts 134 yards  3 TD 265 points which is 20th overall

The fewest passing attempts in Cousis career so far as a starter has been 540 in 2017 and he still had over 4000 yards passing and 27 TD in that season, with worse weapons. Cousins has a career yards per attempt of 7.6 and given that efficiency tends to go up when volume goes down, I do not see any reason for this downgrade.

He does have Cousins taking fewer sacks than last year. So that shows he thinks there will be some improvement to pass protection, yet this leads to Cousins playing worse than he did last year?

I will be happy to take Cousins if he falls to me.

As far as the ADP they all seem like decent value after pick 96 (8th round) good luck finding a player at that point who gives you more VBD than these QB will.

 

Edited by Biabreakable

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Cousins is great value. I like Dak a lot. I think he takes huge strides this year. Top 8 finisher. 

Goff seems awfully low

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5 hours ago, Stephen Holloway said:

Most seasons it just makes a lot of sense to wait on drafting your quarterback and this year seems to be setting up as the Poster Year for waiting. Reviewing current ADP, there seems to be plentiful options that could finish in the top ten QBs going much later than the top ten according to ADP. The following list is the ADP from Footballguys.com this morning with position, name and ADP provided:

  1. Mahomes 30
  2. Luck 46
  3. Watson 49
  4. Rodgers 50
  5. Mayfield 63
  6. Ryan 69
  7. Wilson 72
  8. Brees 83
  9. Newton 84
  10. Wentz 89
  11. Goff 90
  12. Winston 96
  13. Roethlisberger 107
  14. Rivers 111
  15. Prescott 117
  16. Trubisky 118
  17. Garoppalo 124
  18. Brady 128
  19. Jackson 131
  20. Allen 132
  21. Murray 136
  22. Cousins 139
  23. Darnold 159
  24. Carr 167
  25. Dalton 194
  26. Mariota 204

Roethlisberger lost Antonio Brown, but he finished 3rd a year ago and has finished in the top ten in four of the last six seasons. Rivers has finished in the top ten in three of the past six seasons. Cousins has been among the top ten for the past four straight season. Brady is 42, yet he finished as QB2 in 2015 and 2017. Young up and comers Jackson, Allen and Murray all have potential to run for significant yardage and touchdowns, so if they can be decent passers, the sky is the limit.

Are you planning to wait and if so, who do you prefer?

 

I don't know if I'll play in any redraft other than best ball this year, but the bolded are guys outside of the top 10 whom I'll gladly take at their ADP.  Thinking taking 3 outside of the top 12 could be a good play in best ball. 

If I'm feeling especially fiesty, I'll roll with a trio of Prescott and two of Trubisky,  Murray,  Darnold or Mariota.   It becomes tough to get 3 QBs at a reasonable price in 16 team leagues (so I didn't try in the mocks - although I did get Watson, Murray, Eli in one).  Give me the "safety" of Dak and the upside of the other 4, although I think there's inconsistency there. 

If I had to only take one QB at his ADP, it's Dak.  He was top 5 from week 9 on, and gets an off season with Cooper, plus Witten is back (probably not a force in FF, but leadership and blocking can be a big plus).   

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51 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Cousins is great value. I like Dak a lot. I think he takes huge strides this year. Top 8 finisher. 

Goff seems awfully low

I thought so too about Goff, but there's a lot of good QBs ahead of him.  Cam is the only one I'd definitely take Goff over. 

For Dak, it's not a huge stride when you consider the 2nd half of last season. 

Edited by -OZ-

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15 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Cousins is great value. I like Dak a lot. I think he takes huge strides this year. Top 8 finisher. 

Goff seems awfully low

The problem with Cousins is that while he's low on this list in a linear sense, his ADP is as close to Prescott at #15 as to the very next QB off the board in Darnold. Personally if I'm targeting QB in that range, I'd rather gun for Rivers two rounds earlier, or take Darnold at the two-round discount.

The best thing about the late QBs this year is that there's a nice mix of steady Eddies and pure ceiling guys that make natural pairings. One of Big Ben / Rivers / Dak / Brady plus one of Jimmy G / Allen / Murray / Darnold is likely to be my default strategy in 1-QB leagues for 2019.

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant
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These ADP #'s appear to tell me that if I'm drafting out of 1-3 spot, it's very possible I might be able to select 8 total rb/wr/te, and still wind up with Big Ben or Rivers at early 9, with a realistic shot at Cousins at the 12/13 turn...

Sign. Me. Up.

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22 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Love wentz at 10

Deeper......rivers and jamies

I believe Wentz has top-5 potential or higher. Another season removed from the knee injury & no brace, a great O-line, a running game, 4 great weapons to throw to, and an aggressive playcaller in Pederson. A return to his pre-injury MVP level of play is certainly possible. A bargain as the 10th QB off the board.

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1 minute ago, Amused to Death said:

I believe Wentz has top-5 potential or higher. Another season removed from the knee injury & no brace, a great O-line, a running game, 4 great weapons to throw to, and an aggressive playcaller in Pederson. A return to his pre-injury MVP level of play is certainly possible. A bargain as the 10th QB off the board.

Agreed, and even if I take off the green-tinted glasses he may be my favorite name relative to ADP.

Sadly for that strategy I'm in Eagles country, so in most of my drafts he'll go significantly sooner than QB10. I love him as an 8th-rounder, but in the 5th or 6th I'd rather punt the position and grab two of the names I listed earlier.

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The variety of folk's favorites makes the waiting play even stronger due to the combination of preferences that will be available late. Seems like a no-brainer to wait on your quarterback this year. Looking forward to seeing how the ADP listings vary as the off-season progresses.

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5 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Agreed, and even if I take off the green-tinted glasses he may be my favorite name relative to ADP.

Sadly for that strategy I'm in Eagles country, so in most of my drafts he'll go significantly sooner than QB10. I love him as an 8th-rounder, but in the 5th or 6th I'd rather punt the position and grab two of the names I listed earlier.

In my local leagues ill gladly take wentz in round 6....prefect angle to have this year imo

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After building core starters, 2 RB/2WR,1TE, I start to look at QB in the 6th round.  If no good value, Flex or Depth is a good option.  

Mayfield  (63)  & Ryan (69):  anywhere in 7th round (73+) and I would target them / Good WR targets & offense building 

Winston (96): I think this is too low, but I would put him in my 8th round targets.  I think he should be 75 / QB7 range.  

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I'd be fine being one of the last teams to take a QB in 12 team leagues and end up with Goff, Winston or Big Ben.

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I always wait and grab a QB late, typically I draft a QB after everyone has already drafted theirs.   Rivers, Dak, or Trubisky would be great.   If Winston is left for me, he would be considered.  Cousins real late seems like a steal.  

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I like grabbing a high-floor veteran like Rivers or Roethlisberger and then coming back with Kyler Murray as a high-upside QB2. 

I 'd bet the house that Murray is going to move up from QB21 by August though...

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I like the TBrady, LJackson, JAllen, KMurray bunch at 18-21. All of those guys have high ceilings along with reasonably good average-case projections. I'd be happy to come away with 2 of them.

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If I was to do a 12 team PPR league this year I would wait until every other team has a QB, and probably wait until teams started taking their 2nd QB before I took my first 

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7 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

The problem with Cousins is that while he's low on this list in a linear sense, his ADP is as close to Prescott at #15 as to the very next QB off the board in Darnold. Personally if I'm targeting QB in that range, I'd rather gun for Rivers two rounds earlier, or take Darnold at the two-round discount.

The best thing about the late QBs this year is that there's a nice mix of steady Eddies and pure ceiling guys that make natural pairings. One of Big Ben / Rivers / Dak / Brady plus one of Jimmy G / Allen / Murray / Darnold is likely to be my default strategy in 1-QB leagues for 2019.

Why is this a problem?

Kirk Cousins has finished as QB 8, 5, 6, 13 the last 4 seasons and Sam Darnold isn't going to be close to top 12 this year although his completion percentage should improve to above 60% this year because of Bell but I do not think he will be in the top 18 QB in 2019.

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5 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Why is this a problem?

Kirk Cousins has finished as QB 8, 5, 6, 13 the last 4 seasons and Sam Darnold isn't going to be close to top 12 this year although his completion percentage should improve to above 60% this year because of Bell but I do not think he will be in the top 18 QB in 2019.

I'm not saying Cousins isn't undervalued - merely that others in that range are more undervalued. In most drafts, he'll go within 1-1.5 rounds of Rivers, Prescott, and Garoppolo, and I'm happy to spend the slight extra draft capital on any of them over him.

I can see happily grabbing Cousins if he falls to the above ADP and my 1 is an upside play like Mayfield, Winston, Murray (LMAO at the thought that he'll be going outside the top 16 come August). OTOH, if my QB1 is a floor play like Goff / Rivers / Big Ben, give me Darnold and his as-yet-unknown upside at the two-round discount instead every day of the week. 

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant

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35 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

I'm not saying Cousins isn't undervalued - merely that others in that range are more undervalued. In most drafts, he'll go within 1-1.5 rounds of Rivers, Prescott, and Garoppolo, and I'm happy to spend the slight extra draft capital on any of them over him.

Phillip Rivers has finished as QB 11th 14th 8th and 11th the last few years. A little bit lower than Cousins but they are pretty close to the same performance level. So why do you want to pay more for him? Garrapolo is unproven, but looked very promising over a small sample of games. I don't see a reason to take him before Cousins. Dak Prescott has been a solid runner which is something that I could see taking ahead of Cousins or RIvers. He has finished 10th 11th and 10th in his first 3 seasons. I think Prescott has a good chance to improve on his passing number with Gallop developing and a 2nd year with Cooper, so I can see that. On the same token Cousins may improve in his 2nd seasons with the Vikings if there is actually improved pass protection.

35 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

I can see happily grabbing Cousins if he falls to the above ADP and my 1 is an upside play like Mayfield, Winston, Murray (LMAO at the thought that he'll be going outside the top 16 come August). OTOH, if my QB1 is a floor play like Goff / Rivers / Big Ben, give me Darnold and his as-yet-unknown upside at the two-round discount instead every day of the week. 

Maybe Murray is crazy good. I am rooting for him. No idea how it is actually going to work out.

I am fine with taking guys like Cousins and Rivers who have a solid track record of performance over guys who could do it but haven't yet, but at some point even Josh Allen becomes appealing.

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Everyone seems to be a little down on the Rams.  I am too honestly, but QB11 for one of the best offenses in football?????  Yeah I'll take the over.  I don't particularly like Goff or expect improvement for them, but what if the community is wrong?  He's easily a top5 QB if what he's done up until now keeps trending up.  If not he settles in as a back end QB1 probably.  Very little risk and the reward is big.  

Later on I like Kyler, Lamara, Josh group a lot to pair with Garoppolo maybe.  I usually hate carrying 2 QB's in redraft though so I'd probably roll the dice with Kyler.

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5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Everyone seems to be a little down on the Rams.  I am too honestly, but QB11 for one of the best offenses in football?????  Yeah I'll take the over.  I don't particularly like Goff or expect improvement for them, but what if the community is wrong?  He's easily a top5 QB if what he's done up until now keeps trending up.  If not he settles in as a back end QB1 probably.  Very little risk and the reward is big.  

What's the reward exactly? Even on the best offense Goff managed 32 tds. Imagine what happens when the Rams struggle. We've seen what can happen without Gurley; his looming knee issues puts the whole offense at risk.

I see this complete opposite. You pay for his recent numbers without a discount for a possible drop off. Give me assurance from Ben or Rivers or upside from Wentz before Goff.

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21 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

The problem with Cousins is that while he's low on this list in a linear sense, his ADP is as close to Prescott at #15 as to the very next QB off the board in Darnold. Personally if I'm targeting QB in that range, I'd rather gun for Rivers two rounds earlier, or take Darnold at the two-round discount.

The best thing about the late QBs this year is that there's a nice mix of steady Eddies and pure ceiling guys that make natural pairings. One of Big Ben / Rivers / Dak / Brady plus one of Jimmy G / Allen / Murray / Darnold is likely to be my default strategy in 1-QB leagues for 2019.

 

16 hours ago, Dan Hindery said:

I like grabbing a high-floor veteran like Rivers or Roethlisberger and then coming back with Kyler Murray as a high-upside QB2. 

I 'd bet the house that Murray is going to move up from QB21 by August though...

The floor plus ceiling plan can work and it sounds great. I kinda failed while succeeding at this last year though. Auction league, ended up with Cam, Ryan, and Trubisky. Pretty good on paper, and in best ball would have been great. But I started the wrong guy more often than not. Maybe I'm just bad at qbbc, but it took me a while before I trusted Tru enough to start him, then he had an off week, and it seemed I just never picked right. 

Best ball I'm completely on board with the floor + ceiling plan. In regular leagues I might still do it, but think I'd prefer to get one guy to start, especially if others wait. 

Edited by -OZ-

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This looks like a dynasty ADP being applied to a redraft topic.  Mayfield at 3 is in the discussion for dynasty but no way do I trust that to redraft while Big Ben at 13 is absurd.  I'm betting heavily on Goff too with the possibility of a limited Gurley.  Trubisky and Wentz would be the dream combo to me.

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This is like a kid in the candy store for guys like us who wait on QBs. 

The options are almost endless.  So many solid options as well as guys with a lot of upside.

I like Wentz, Goff, or Winston, and backing them up with a Cousins or a Brady.  If I wait too long, Rivers or Dak plus the big upside of Josh Allen or Murray would be my backup plan.

I do play in a lot of superflex leagues, so it would interesting to see what the typical strategy would be.  I probably would wait until 10 or so QBs are taken, and then take two in a row and one more a couple of rounds later.  So I would be targeting a combo from Wentz/Goff/Winston/Ben/Rivers/Dak and then take a big upside guy like Murray a couple of rounds later.

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Stafford ended year #8, #7, #6 ranked in 2015-2017.  Top 10 in 7 of 8 years between 2011-2017.  But ends at #20 in 2018 and somehow doesn't even exist in rankings anymore.

He's not just cheap.  He's basically free.

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35 minutes ago, beef said:

Stafford ended year #8, #7, #6 ranked in 2015-2017.  Top 10 in 7 of 8 years between 2011-2017.  But ends at #20 in 2018 and somehow doesn't even exist in rankings anymore.

He's not just cheap.  He's basically free.

buyer beware here, Bevell and Patricia want to run the ball and play defense.....of course if the D sucks they will have to throw, but the coaches are going to take the air our of the ball

 

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5 hours ago, beef said:

Stafford ended year #8, #7, #6 ranked in 2015-2017.  Top 10 in 7 of 8 years between 2011-2017.  But ends at #20 in 2018 and somehow doesn't even exist in rankings anymore.

He's not just cheap.  He's basically free.

Yes, they want to run, but they are not so good overall, so he may pass more than they prefer. Not one of my favorite lye options, but still a very late pick that could be value.

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15 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

What's the reward exactly? Even on the best offense Goff managed 32 tds. Imagine what happens when the Rams struggle. We've seen what can happen without Gurley; his looming knee issues puts the whole offense at risk.

I see this complete opposite. You pay for his recent numbers without a discount for a possible drop off. Give me assurance from Ben or Rivers or upside from Wentz before Goff.

People are just wrong in their projections.  Everyone seems to assume he's this average type of QB in a plus system right?  I agree completely to that.  But what if we're wrong about who he is?  What if he is the next GOAT in hiding right now?  The floor is there to be safe, and if people are wrong he could go for 50 TD's, who knows.  He has Kupp back, he has another healthy RB to add change of pace to Gurley, Reynolds is a good #4, the TE's are improving, more formations, more creativity, more diverse playbook, leads me to believe that it is the range of outcomes that he just straight up shatters people's expectations.  Small likelihood I'd say but if people are wrong about what he is, he could be a steal at QB11.  

Goff was QB6 on FFPC last year (basically 100 points behind Mahomes).  Like you said, "whats the reward", well it's basically a top5 QB at half the cost of a top5 QB.  You can't say the same about Wentz or Ben with their current weapons.  They don't hold a candle to the offensive power that the Rams have.  

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Murray at QB21 is just stealing. He could be the worst passer in the NFL(he won't be) and still be finish that high purely with his legs. I wouldn't be shocked if he was going in the 10-15 range come August, and that is probably where he should be going.

Lamar Jackson is probably my 2nd choice for waiting. Running QB's always seem to get undervalued for whatever reason. Pass catching RB's used to be that way, but people have caught on there, not sure why they haven't at QB yet. Are people that worried about durability? At the easiest position to fill? 

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3 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

People are drafting Mayfield at 5 in redrafts?

 

........... What????? 

I wouldn't do it, but I get it. He was a low end QB1 last year, despite seeing almost no work with the 1st team all offseason, and they've since added Odell Beckham, who fits Mayfield's skill set better than he ever did Eli's. But that said, yeah top-5(round 6) is pretty risky to me. 

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

Murray at QB21 is just stealing. He could be the worst passer in the NFL(he won't be) and still be finish that high purely with his legs. I wouldn't be shocked if he was going in the 10-15 range come August, and that is probably where he should be going.

Lamar Jackson is probably my 2nd choice for waiting. Running QB's always seem to get undervalued for whatever reason. Pass catching RB's used to be that way, but people have caught on there, not sure why they haven't at QB yet. Are people that worried about durability? At the easiest position to fill? 

Murray's actual ADP in FFPC real money leagues is QB10 in both Best Ball and Classic formats.

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Just wondering...  what would it take for a team to have 3 WR's in the top 20, and have their QB not finish in the top 10?

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2 hours ago, Leroy's Aces said:

Murray's actual ADP in FFPC real money leagues is QB10 in both Best Ball and Classic formats.

exactly...the fake money ADPs are terrible.  Step into the drafts where real amounts of money are on the line if you want to see actual ADPs. 

I see these ridiculous "expert" league drafts on Twitter and they make me want to puke.

Edited by TripItUp
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11 hours ago, fightingillini said:

This is like a kid in the candy store for guys like us who wait on QBs. 

The options are almost endless.  So many solid options as well as guys with a lot of upside.

I like Wentz, Goff, or Winston, and backing them up with a Cousins or a Brady.  If I wait too long, Rivers or Dak plus the big upside of Josh Allen or Murray would be my backup plan.

I do play in a lot of superflex leagues, so it would interesting to see what the typical strategy would be.  I probably would wait until 10 or so QBs are taken, and then take two in a row and one more a couple of rounds later.  So I would be targeting a combo from Wentz/Goff/Winston/Ben/Rivers/Dak and then take a big upside guy like Murray a couple of rounds later.

So this is kind of why I may zig from the zag.....kinda seems like everybody is bunching a bunch of guys into an area where they just cancel each other out...there are combos in here all over the map......I might go ahead and not worry about trying to find “the right guy late” and just take THE right guy early while everybody else worries about the “right combo” or the “high upside guy with the safe vet” or whatever and try to figure out that WDIS coin flip every week....I suck at WDIS crap with QB’s...give me a lock and load early and then outdraft the rest of your league late....

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3 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

People are drafting Mayfield at QB5 in redrafts?

 

........... What????? 

I’d have no problem with him pulling the trigger for me each week in a 12 team 6 PPTD league....one of the few QBs IMO that could give you some serious separation from your opponent each week at the QB spot....I’ll play the weekly ceiling with him all year....

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