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Sinn Fein

Stock Market under Trump

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MODS - If there is a similar thread - feel free to merge.

 

One of the talking points that comes up frequently by people looking to support Trump beyond his personal characteristics - "Look at the Stock Market - my 401k makes it all worth it!!!"

 

I usually ignore the argument, and just let it go without giving it any thought.

 

But, today, I decided to do a little research:  https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president

 

Since Trump took office - the stock market (DJIA) is up 26%

 

Obama - in the same time frame - was up 57% .  Overall, the stock market finished up 148% at the end of Obama's term.

 

So, not only are we suffering with Trump's childish and immature antics, we are worse off financially.  Trump is hurting America in every conceivable way.

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7 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Since Trump took office - the stock market (DJIA) is up 26%

Obama - in the same time frame - was up 57% .  Overall, the stock market finished up 148% at the end of Obama's term.

Not commenting specifically on the performances, but I'd proffer that 2 years is a far cry from the long run.

When it comes to POTUS effectiveness in this area I'm much more apt to look at employment, GDP, etc.

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9 minutes ago, Sand said:

Not commenting specifically on the performances, but I'd proffer that 2 years is a far cry from the long run.

When it comes to POTUS effectiveness in this area I'm much more apt to look at employment, GDP, etc.

Oh I am quite confident that the policies put in place by this administration are short-term spikes, and not intended for long-term growth. 

 

Imagine what the stock market might have looked like if not for corporate tax cuts allowing companies to buy back stock and artificially prop up the market. 

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4 minutes ago, John Blutarsky said:

Many people said the market would crash immediately after Trump won.

Not many smart people. The smart money would have said Trump would do exactly what he did - try to pump up the market via tax cuts and deregulation. 

 

But surely you are not praising him simply because he did not tank the market, are you?

i would think a smart man, such as yourself, would welcome the kind of returns that Obama delivered. 

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

Not many smart people. The smart money would have said Trump would do exactly what he did - try to pump up the market via tax cuts and deregulation. 

 

But surely you are not praising him simply because he did not tank the market, are you?

i would think a smart man, such as yourself, would welcome the kind of returns that Obama delivered. 

FYI, we have been told over and over here the President doesn’t have impact on the stock market. 

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Trump himself has made the bigliness of the stock market gains a personal testament to the country "winning" under him.

He can't take that back now.

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

Not many smart people. The smart money would have said Trump would do exactly what he did - try to pump up the market via tax cuts and deregulation. 

 

But surely you are not praising him simply because he did not tank the market, are you?

i would think a smart man, such as yourself, would welcome the kind of returns that Obama delivered. 

0/10.

Really? Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-wall-street-effect-markets-230164

CNN is not smart.

https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/24/investing/stocks-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

 

Edited by lod001
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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Imagine what the stock market might have looked like if not for corporate tax cuts allowing companies to buy back stock and artificially prop up the market. 

I can imagine a lot of things.  With any confidence neither of us knows what an alternate reality market would look like.  You're fooling yourself if you think you have an idea.

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25 minutes ago, Sand said:

I can imagine a lot of things.  With any confidence neither of us knows what an alternate reality market would look like.  You're fooling yourself if you think you have an idea.

I am no fool. 

While there are obviously uncertainties about what could happen in an alternative universe - I can see with a high degree of certainty that if you took away the tax cuts, companies would not have been able to use that money to buy back stocks.  And, if the demand for stock purchases was lower - basic economics tells us the price would drop.

Could an asteroid hit the earth in the alternative universe?  Sure.  But the stock market would sink then, also.

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43 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Could an asteroid hit the earth in the alternative universe?  Sure.  But the stock market would sink then, also.

You win - an alternate universe that includes a significant asteroid strike would assuredly be bad for the markets.

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Hey GoBirds we can talk about politics and the market over here. Hope you go long on margin and buy this dip. Dow probably gonna hit 50,000 by the end of Trump’s 2nd term and you’ll be a gazillionaire. 

Edited by NREC34
Forgot some words

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4 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Not many smart people. The smart money would have said Trump would do exactly what he did - try to pump up the market via tax cuts and deregulation. 

 

 

Many people here said it , guess you wouldn’t classify them as “smart”

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16 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

Such lame garbage......par for the course in here. 

 

0/10

I don't understand this response. Did you read the OP? 

He's not saying: "The stock market sucks because of Trump!" or "The stock market has sucked during Trump's Presidency"- I would agree that either of those arguments would be lame. 

But what Sinn Fein is pointing out is that when people say they support Trump because of how well their 401k is doing, they're ignoring the fact that their 401k did even better under Obama- and that therefore its a flawed argument. I think that's at the very least a reasonable point for discussion. 

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6 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

Many people here said it , guess you wouldn’t classify them as “smart”

(To be fair, and without singling out anyone, I think most people are idiots (present company excluded, of course, but don't tell anyone I said that).)

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5 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I don't understand this response. Did you read the OP? 

He's not saying: "The stock market sucks because of Trump!" or "The stock market has sucked during Trump's Presidency"- I would agree that either of those arguments would be lame. 

But what Sinn Fein is pointing out is that when people say they support Trump because of how well their 401k is doing, they're ignoring the fact that their 401k did even better under Obama- and that therefore its a flawed argument. I think that's at the very least a reasonable point for discussion. 

Nail meet head.

 

There have been several times where "But my 401k is great" is raised as a reason to excuse Trump's behavior.  The reality is - your 401(k) did better - percentage-wise under Obama - and yet those same people are having none of it.

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I’ll admit to believing the markets would tank under Trump. I could not fathom (and still don’t, really) how confidence can be high with a leader who is clearly a sham and with flagging confidence would come a market correction. Add to that the fact that he surely won’t listen to experts (witness his attacks on the Fed), he’d implement stupid policy, and I thought we had a recipe for disaster. The tax cuts obviously propped up the markets and kept the good times flowing. I still think it is an artificially high market with ridiculously low interest rates for a ridiculously long period of time and with irresponsible tax cuts. I still believe the markets will tank for all of the reasons that I stated (plus, in 2016 I only suspected that Trump was a sham businessman, now it is a certainty)—the fall may be beginning already and I believe it will be a decent sized recession, given all the propping up. Kudos to Trump and the markets for making it this far but the tank is running dry. I’m surprised that it has done as well as it did.

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17 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

(To be fair, and without singling out anyone, I think most people are idiots (present company excluded, of course, but don't tell anyone I said that).)

Likewise. We can just keep it between us

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5 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

MODS - If there is a similar thread - feel free to merge.

 

One of the talking points that comes up frequently by people looking to support Trump beyond his personal characteristics - "Look at the Stock Market - my 401k makes it all worth it!!!"

 

I usually ignore the argument, and just let it go without giving it any thought.

 

But, today, I decided to do a little research:  https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president

 

Since Trump took office - the stock market (DJIA) is up 26%

 

Obama - in the same time frame - was up 57% .  Overall, the stock market finished up 148% at the end of Obama's term.

 

So, not only are we suffering with Trump's childish and immature antics, we are worse off financially.  Trump is hurting America in every conceivable way.

Being up 26% is good, regardless of what happened previously.  Up 26% also means people are actually better off financially than they were previously.  I’m not sure your point??

You do realize that when Obama took over, the market hit historic lows.  So it’s a bit easier to be up 148%.  Not apples to apples.  

What I do remember is Republicans slamming Obama for every financial decision and claiming a bigger recession was imminent.  Basically, hoping for his policies to fail and the economy to crash.  

Today the left is doing the same thing to Trump.  Currently, the economy is doing just fine.  If it tanks, then you can crow.  But for now, today, Trump isn’t hurting people financially and the claim that “we are worse off financially” is completely untrue.

Edited by shader
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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

I am no fool. 

While there are obviously uncertainties about what could happen in an alternative universe - I can see with a high degree of certainty that if you took away the tax cuts, companies would not have been able to use that money to buy back stocks.  And, if the demand for stock purchases was lower - basic economics tells us the price would drop.

Could an asteroid hit the earth in the alternative universe?  Sure.  But the stock market would sink then, also.

You don’t have any idea what specific policies would do to the stock market.  No one does.

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7 minutes ago, shader said:

You don’t have any idea what specific policies would do to the stock market.  No one does.

Go walk alone

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1 hour ago, NREC34 said:

Hey GoBirds we can talk about politics and the market over here. Hope you go long on margin and buy this dip. Dow probably gonna hit 50,000 by the end of Trump’s 2nd term and you’ll be a gazillionaire. 

You've been crying wolf for years now.......no one is listening anymore and when one day you claim "I'm right!" if anyone is still listening somehow it will be a great laugh. 

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7 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

You've been crying wolf for years now.......no one is listening anymore and when one day you claim "I'm right!" if anyone is still listening somehow it will be a great laugh. 

Exactly.  When the market finally crashes he will be here to say I told you so!!!  Meanwhile, what he won't tell you is that he has been sitting in cash the past 10 years missing this rally.

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As someone who lives and breathes the markets, I always find threads like this interesting.  You know- how does the layman think about what has gone on in the last few years, how do my clients think about it, etc.

This is how it was/is, to me:

- The consensus in 2016 was that the markets would tank if Trump got elected.  But it was mostly because of the uncertainty that he brought to the role - he was/is a populist who is both outspoken in his opinions and also someone who just "shoots from the hip".  So that created a lot of concern from most investors.   But once people started to get some comfort around (a) there's a Republican in office, and that's usually good for the capital markets; and (b) from both a tax and regulatory perspective (particularly regarding the banks and Obamacare), he was going to be an improvement from the previous administration; the markets became optimistic that he was going to be good for growth/capital investment.

- There is no way of knowing if Trump was better for the markets than Clinton.  Sure, the Republicans/Trump provided benefits to the market that a Democrat administration likely would not have, but Clinton was fairly center-left and likely would not have constantly risked the economy and U.S foreign relations in game of chicken solely for their own benefit.  So I have no idea of Trump as added any value to the strength of the stock market, and imo nobody really does.

- As I said in the Trump Trade War thread, I think Trump is doing a great job using his ability to implement tariffs to help him win the next election.  It took me a bit of time to see this, but speaking with several analysts at most of the major bulge brackets today and the last few weeks it has become clear to me what Trump's playbook is for the next 18 months.  I'm not going to re-hash everything I said in the other thread, but I would advise anyone who is trading their personal savings and/or 401K's to keep in mind that (a) Trump is highly focused on winning the election - another 4 years in office is the best cure for all this obstruction/Mueller/impeachment stuff, and incumbents have a much better chance of winning if their constituents feel they are wealthier because of who is in office; and (b) The big variable is going to be time - I have given my thoughts on that in the trade thread but this really is a game of chicken and a recession or simply fear could easily alter the gameplan.

 

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We might get crashy Monday 

let’s see what the Chinese say about trade deal tomorrow 

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18 hours ago, lod001 said:

I only clicked CNN article and it predicted an "almost certainly" 8% fall.  Thats hardly a crash. The stock market was way down election night too.  What everyone forgot is Trump would get rid of all those pesky regulations Obama put in place to prevent another economic crisis like we saw in 2008.

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1 hour ago, 2Squirrels1Nut said:

I only clicked CNN article and it predicted an "almost certainly" 8% fall.  Thats hardly a crash. The stock market was way down election night too.  What everyone forgot is Trump would get rid of all those pesky regulations Obama put in place to prevent another economic crisis like we saw in 2008.

No, the market was not down on election day.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-markets-stuck-in-nervous-wait-as-election-day-begins-2016-11-08

And the market was up the following day

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/us-markets.html

Edited by John Blutarsky

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If I remember correctly, the after-hours (or pre-market) numbers did fall on the order of 2 to 3% but by the time the business day opened and closed, the markets were not down.

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17 hours ago, Don't Noonan said:

Exactly.  When the market finally crashes he will be here to say I told you so!!!  Meanwhile, what he won't tell you is that he has been sitting in cash the past 10 years missing this rally.

Maybe I have missed some gains by being defensive since last October but that’s ok. All gains in this market are fake gains. The fundamentals suck and you know it. They trot out Kudlow to spew some BS or Trump tweets some fake trade war news and the algos buy. Been going on since Christmas but possibly now the market has caught on. We shall see.

 

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3 hours ago, NREC34 said:

We might get crashy Monday 

let’s see what the Chinese say about trade deal tomorrow 

This is the only forum I belong to that seems to take pleasure when the market falls...bizarre to say the least.

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17 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

Maybe I have missed some gains by being defensive since last October but that’s ok. All gains in this market are fake gains. The fundamentals suck and you know it. They trot out Kudlow to spew some BS or Trump tweets some fake trade war news and the algos buy. Been going on since Christmas but possibly now the market has caught on. We shall see.

 

fake gains?  fundamentals suck?  We have very different opinions but hey, by all means, continue to show up and post when the markets pulls back and pull your Casper act when it goes back up.

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6 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

fake gains?  fundamentals suck?  We have very different opinions but hey, by all means, continue to show up and post when the markets pulls back and pull your Casper act when it goes back up.

Very fake gains. 

Fooled algos and buybacks. 

 

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6 hours ago, NREC34 said:

Maybe I have missed some gains by being defensive since last October but that’s ok. All gains in this market are fake gains. The fundamentals suck and you know it. They trot out Kudlow to spew some BS or Trump tweets some fake trade war news and the algos buy. Been going on since Christmas but possibly now the market has caught on. We shall see.

 

It’s been going on longer than that. The definite “GET OUT” indicators happened in late Q3 and early Q4 last year despite the huge stock buyback gains over the previous year.  Anyone counting on stock growth right now is not in an optimal position. 

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7 hours ago, Summer Wheat said:

This is the only forum I belong to that seems to take pleasure when the market falls...bizarre to say the least.

What in his post indicated pleasure?

Edited by sho nuff

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7 hours ago, Summer Wheat said:

This is the only forum I belong to that seems to take pleasure when the market falls...bizarre to say the least.

In six months the owner of this post will be eating CROW 

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10 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

In six months the owner of this post will be eating CROW 

If he’s in leveraged positions counting on short term stock gains, he’ll be eating cat food. 

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11 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

If he’s in leveraged positions counting on short term stock gains, he’ll be eating cat food. 

Stocks will outperform cash over the next 6 months imo so we will see.....

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30 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

What in his post indicated pleasure?

Where did the poster you're responding to say the poster he responded to indicated pleasure.  The words I read were "forum"

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21 hours ago, NREC34 said:

We might get crashy Monday 

let’s see what the Chinese say about trade deal tomorrow 

Their response seemed pretty firm but not too antagonistic.  I imagine the markets still won't be please. 

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53 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

Their response seemed pretty firm but not too antagonistic.  I imagine the markets still won't be please. 

I’m starting to think this is all orchestrated. Trump has communicated to his inner circle to go short on the market right now. 

Then when we get closer to the election he will tell them to switch long. He will then lift all the tariffs and make some superficial deal with China that does nothing. 

Market will explode positively. Trump will make a bunch of money, get re-elected and avoid prison. 

Thats his plan at least. 

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12 hours ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

Where did the poster you're responding to say the poster he responded to indicated pleasure.  The words I read were "forum"

Chef Sho once again stirring the pot.

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On 5/31/2019 at 3:19 PM, Sinn Fein said:

Not many smart people. The smart money would have said Trump would do exactly what he did - try to pump up the market via tax cuts and deregulation. 

 

But surely you are not praising him simply because he did not tank the market, are you?

i would think a smart man, such as yourself, would welcome the kind of returns that Obama delivered. 

Which of Obama's policies do you feel "delivered" the returns?

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4 hours ago, NREC34 said:

I’m starting to think this is all orchestrated. Trump has communicated to his inner circle to go short on the market right now. 

Then when we get closer to the election he will tell them to switch long. He will then lift all the tariffs and make some superficial deal with China that does nothing. 

Market will explode positively. Trump will make a bunch of money, get re-elected and avoid prison. 

Thats his plan at least. 

:lmao: Good stuff as usual.  Well done!

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23 hours ago, NREC34 said:

The fundamentals suck and you know it.

Which ones?  I really am interested to see what you see here that's so bad.  What I see:

- Employment looks great.  The other major indicators here are still trending up.

- GDP looks decent.  The US remains the brightest star on the world economic scene (not close, really).

- Mortgage applications look very strong.  (I.e. housing is looking pretty good at present).

- Transport indicators, like rail traffic and truck tonnage, also look very strong.  

Please do chime in with what you see that is rolling over.  I put a lot of time into tracking recession indicators and I have significant (for me) funds in the markets, so I'm way more interested in green than POTUS bashing.  Right now I see green.  Show me red.

 

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14 minutes ago, Sand said:

Which ones?  I really am interested to see what you see here that's so bad.  What I see:

- Employment looks great.  The other major indicators here are still trending up.

- GDP looks decent.  The US remains the brightest star on the world economic scene (not close, really).

- Mortgage applications look very strong.  (I.e. housing is looking pretty good at present).

- Transport indicators, like rail traffic and truck tonnage, also look very strong.  

Please do chime in with what you see that is rolling over.  I put a lot of time into tracking recession indicators and I have significant (for me) funds in the markets, so I'm way more interested in green than POTUS bashing.  Right now I see green.  Show me red.

 

Consumer debt

government deficit

inflation

The jobs created aren’t good jobs and when the recession or depression hits you’ll see even the bad jobs dry up. They can’t fill a lot of the what good jobs there are because they can’t find qualified candidates. 

Semiconductor demand is way down 

Commodity demand is way down 

Yield curve is inverting

Appliance shipments are down

Transports are slowing down too

Trump is playing a game of chicken with all of our futures right now. It is possible he’ll win with China though I wouldn’t count on it. Why is he saying the Fed should cut rates if everything is hunky dorry like you say?

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