Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Sinn Fein

Stock Market under Trump

Recommended Posts

Today's GDPNow projection for Q3 is 2.2%. I don't see a recession in the USA this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Today's GDPNow projection for Q3 is 2.2%. I don't see a recession in the USA this year. 

The first yield curve inversion has predated the recessions by at least a quarter.  If Q4 gets under 1, it could eventually get revised down below 0 after the fact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

The first yield curve inversion has predated the recessions by at least a quarter.  If Q4 gets under 1, it could eventually get revised down below 0 after the fact.

I guarantee you guys there will be another recession. Who wants to bet against me?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

The first yield curve inversion has predated the recessions by at least a quarter.  If Q4 gets under 1, it could eventually get revised down below 0 after the fact.

The indicator isn't perfect.  It's one part in a mosaic - certainly a little worrying.  Other items are showing that the US economy is chugging along.  Maybe a bit slower than before, but it isn't stopping or falling off a cliff. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, GoBirds said:
25 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

The first yield curve inversion has predated the recessions by at least a quarter.  If Q4 gets under 1, it could eventually get revised down below 0 after the fact.

I guarantee you guys there will be another recession. Who wants to bet against me?

I guarantee you that you're not as clever as you think you are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

I guarantee you that you're not as clever as you think you are.

You would lose that bet too. I only think I’m more clever than those that think they can time the market......and those that root against it in here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

 I only think I’m more clever than those that think they can time the market.

I timed 2008 and I fully intend to try and time the next recession.  I don't claim to be smarter than anyone in here to begin with, so when you're already last on the totem pole...

  • Like 1
  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Sand said:

I timed 2008 and I fully intend to try and time the next recession.  I don't claim to be smarter than anyone in here to begin with, so when you're already last on the totem pole...

Your track record in here is pretty good, not having yelled the Sky is falling for years now. :lmao:

Also want to hear when you were brave enough to jump back in after 2008. I wasn’t a dedicated investor before.....mid 2010 I was finally brave enough to invest most of my cash.  

Edited by GoBirds

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Sand said:

I timed 2008 and I fully intend to try and time the next recession.  I don't claim to be smarter than anyone in here to begin with, so when you're already last on the totem pole...

I'm with you Sand.  I'd go so far as to say - anytime you buy or sell a stock, etf, mutual fund etc...you are essentially trying to time the market.  I'm not sure why "market timing" is such a bad word either.  It's smart.  With careful observation, I believe anyone is able to time the market too.  Market timing doesn't mean catching the exact top or bottom either.  It's being observant to the trend and catching the meat of the move.  Sometimes the market is bullish.  Sometimes the market is bearish.   I have no loyalty to either rather lean to the winning side.  I'll say one truth.  At the top of a bull market - no strategy looks better than buy and hold.  But at the bottom of a bear market...not so much.  I've learned a lot from weathering a few bear market storms.  Go Birds it seems like you haven't - and I understand why you believe you can't time the market... I also know if you hold onto this belief it will get will get you battered in the next big storm.  God speed.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I don’t pretend to be on the Sand or Siff level but am a strong believer in the Jack Bogle philosophy which has a great track record over the long haul. With you alls level of expertise you probably can time the market and would love to see you post when you make moves in and out so we can all see how you do. I unfortunately with my career and young kids realize I’m not going to be able to dedicate more time to it and Bogle Plan works great for me. While some like you guys know a lot more than me I think tuning out others that fear monger and plan for the long haul is a great strategy but that’s just me and my situation. 

Edited by GoBirds
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sand said:

The indicator isn't perfect.  It's one part in a mosaic - certainly a little worrying.  Other items are showing that the US economy is chugging along.  Maybe a bit slower than before, but it isn't stopping or falling off a cliff. 

Coincident indicators look fine.  Several leading indicators, as we've discussed, do not.  I understand you disagree with that viewpoint, but it's a legitimate one.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

I don’t pretend to be on the Sand or Siff level but am a strong believer in the Jack Bogle philosophy which has a great track record over the long haul. With you alls level of expertise you probably can time the market and would love to see you post when you make moves in and out so we can all see how you do. I unfortunately with my career and young kids realize I’m not going to be able to dedicate more time to it and Bogle Plan works great for me. While some like you guys know a lot more than me I think tuning out others that fear monger and plan for the long haul is a great strategy but that’s just me. 

Yeah, I'd do a lot more trading if I wasn't working  but it is a lot to follow.  The yield curve inversion is a serious signal though.  We are increasing the deficit and the economy is decelerating.  The Fed needs to cut rates more aggressively. I've moved some out of the market already and maybe will do some more.  It is hard to do with that shared Bogle driven philosophy 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Yeah, I'd do a lot more trading if I wasn't working  but it is a lot to follow.  The yield curve inversion is a serious signal though.  We are increasing the deficit and the economy is decelerating.  The Fed needs to cut rates more aggressively. I've moved some out of the market already and maybe will do some more.  It is hard to do with that shared Bogle driven philosophy 

Sure we are due for a pullback and their isn’t as much room to run of course but I’ve still been adding to target date fun. Also diversifying more by paying down my 3% mortgage and dipping my toe in some tax free bond funds which I wouldn’t do if we were at lower levels. I’m 20 years out from retirement so I won’t need these funds for awhile so some scenarios are different for sure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, GoBirds said:

Also want to hear when you were brave enough to jump back in after 2008. I wasn’t a dedicated investor before.....mid 2010 I was finally brave enough to invest most of my cash.  

I didn't just "sell it all" but I did pull out about 30% of what I had invested sometime in the July 2008 timeframe.  I recall doing a lot of buying around October, mostly REITs and preferred stocks.  The preferreds got gobsmacked about that time and I picked up some really good deals.  All have been called (:sniff:).  It should also be noted I had no idea or inkling when the bottom was.  I don't recall buying or selling much that next spring.

If I see things going down I'll also do the same - scale back equity exposure, but certainly not just pull it all out.  

4 hours ago, siffoin said:

I'm with you Sand.  I'd go so far as to say - anytime you buy or sell a stock, etf, mutual fund etc...you are essentially trying to time the market.  I'm not sure why "market timing" is such a bad word either.  It's smart.  With careful observation, I believe anyone is able to time the market too.  

:hifive:

4 hours ago, Henry Ford said:

Coincident indicators look fine.  Several leading indicators, as we've discussed, do not.  I understand you disagree with that viewpoint, but it's a legitimate one.

I think we disagree more on which indicators are leading and which are coincident rather than their direction. :P  There is no doubt that there is some weakness out there.  I also recall the industrial slowdown in 2016, too - that didn't lead to recession.  I'm not blindingly bullish, but man I just don't see the sky falling yet.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Sand said:

I didn't just "sell it all" but I did pull out about 30% of what I had invested sometime in the July 2008 timeframe.  I recall doing a lot of buying around October, mostly REITs and preferred stocks.  The preferreds got gobsmacked about that time and I picked up some really good deals.  All have been called (:sniff:).  It should also be noted I had no idea or inkling when the bottom was.  I don't recall buying or selling much that next spring.

If I see things going down I'll also do the same - scale back equity exposure, but certainly not just pull it all out.  

:hifive:

I think we disagree more on which indicators are leading and which are coincident rather than their direction. :P  There is no doubt that there is some weakness out there.  I also recall the industrial slowdown in 2016, too - that didn't lead to recession.  I'm not blindingly bullish, but man I just don't see the sky falling yet.

I guess I don’t see recession as the sky falling. Mostly because you don’t have to let it turn into a disaster when you see the indicators.  You get safe for a couple, maybe three, years and then jump back in. 

But it’s coming. And not in the distant future. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Today's GDPNow projection for Q3 is 2.2%. I don't see a recession in the USA this year. 

I was told anything less than 3% makes the POTUS in power A LOSER. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

But it’s coming. And not in the distant future. 

Can we argue now about the legal definition of the term "distant"?  

:boxing:

 

(It's Friday and I'm still at work, please forgive!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Sand said:

Can we argue now about the legal definition of the term "distant"?  

:boxing:

 

(It's Friday and I'm still at work, please forgive!)

I believe Henry is on record saying he believes we will see a recession before the election and I am on record saying we will not.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Sheriff Bart said:

Big bump today. Almost back to even with last week. 

Wonder if we get the Dow 26,000 tweet today?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything is fine now, guys. 

I was wrong. Gonna go all in long. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎8‎/‎16‎/‎2019 at 9:55 PM, Don't Noonan said:

I believe Henry is on record saying he believes we will see a recession before the election and I am on record saying we will not.

I never participate in recessions. 

  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, NREC34 said:

Everything is fine now, guys. 

I was wrong. Gonna go all in long. 

What are you doing here when market is up? :lmao:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

What are you doing here when market is up? :lmao:

Up over 200. I think I’m seeing the error of my ways. 

I mean just look....

what the heck have I been thinking 

  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NREC34 said:

what the heck have I been thinking 

#noclue?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pfffft

Why in the world would we not trust Trump to steer this ship?

Look at what he’s done with his businesses. 

And he’s got all the best people in his ear too. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

What are you doing here when market is up? :lmao:

The assertion that people who think we're on the wrong track don't show up in this thread when the market is up is simply false.

Edited by Henry Ford
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Cut rates by one percent?  Is the long game here just to tank the economy and drop the interest rates on his loans?  What the hell?

Come on Henry, read.  AT LEAST 1%, 1% would be the bare minimum!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want negative rates on my mortgage. 

Maybe Trump can make this happen somehow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

I want negative rates on my mortgage. 

Maybe Trump can make this happen somehow. 

That just happened in Denmark, -0.5% I believe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dear god...I’d love for someone to explain to me how a 1.25% fed fund rate with quant easing jives with the best economy ever! MAGA!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Cut rates by one percent?  Is the long game here just to tank the economy and drop the interest rates on his loans?  What the hell?

That's was my theory months ago.  I think the fact that he refuses to release his tax returns supports that theory. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So if savers get no return on cash it is conceivable money comes into the market chasing yield, right?

Maybe the market will go on up some because of this cluster——. 

But it won’t end well whenever it does. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I'd love one of these reporters to ask him to explain what quantitative easing is :lol: 

or how percentages work.

or how interest works.

or what 7x9 equals.

  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, joffer said:

or how percentages work.

or how interest works.

or what 7x9 equals.

Most Americans don’t know how percentages or interest work. “Look at Trump, he is just like us. We should vote for him because he can relate, not like those other eggheads.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NREC34 said:

So if savers get no return on cash it is conceivable money comes into the market chasing yield, right?

Maybe the market will go on up some because of this cluster——. 

But it won’t end well whenever it does. 

You are getting there!:thumbup:

 

Rates have been kept artificially low for over a decade, how are rates going to go back to the 7% days and not destroy everyone that has adjusted to these artificial rates? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

Rates have been kept artificially low for over a decade, 

Given current foreign rates I'd disagree with this assessment.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Sammy3469 said:

Dear god...I’d love for someone to explain to me how a 1.25% fed fund rate with quant easing jives with the best economy ever! MAGA!

[points left] YOU get some money!

[points right] YOU get some money!

[points center] YOU get some money!

[points at self] We all get money!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, NickyHatton said:

That just happened in Denmark, -0.5% I believe.

[Trump] This is why I'm going to buy Greenland. [/Trump]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mario Kart said:

[Trump] This is why I'm going to buy Greenland. [/Trump]

Buying Greenland would actually be pretty awesome.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This administration is a moronic s***show of incompetency, stoopidity and failure of epic proportions......unless you are part of the 1% actually sort of benefitting from it.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trump is going to do serious harm to the American economy.  He'll set it on fire and then walk away.  Like he does with everything.

2020 is the most important election in American history.  I think he'll get crushed.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.