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Stock Market under Trump (2 Viewers)

Dear god...I’d love for someone to explain to me how a 1.25% fed fund rate with quant easing jives with the best economy ever! MAGA!
He doesn't really care, so long as it juices the economy enough to get him re-elected next year.  Long-term negative repercussions don't matter for him, he'll be out of office and able to deflect any economic blame on whoever takes over for him.

 
He doesn't really care, so long as it juices the economy enough to get him re-elected next year.  Long-term negative repercussions don't matter for him, he'll be out of office and able to deflect any economic blame on whoever takes over for him.
It will start even before then. If a recession begins before next November, he'll blame it on Democratic successes in the '18 midterms.

 
Trump manipulates the markets like no one before him and the D's either can't figure that out or are in on it and making a killing themselves.

Markets having a bad run. 'ya know, we are close to a china deal'. Markets rally. 'I'm imposing more tariffs'. Markets sell off. Anyone with any info on when he's going to blabber, will make big $.

 
Trump manipulates the markets like no one before him and the D's either can't figure that out or are in on it and making a killing themselves.

Markets having a bad run. 'ya know, we are close to a china deal'. Markets rally. 'I'm imposing more tariffs'. Markets sell off. Anyone with any info on when he's going to blabber, will make big $.
And get thrown in jail if proven this is what they're doing. USA USA USA!!!

Eta:  others haven't done it because they didn't know how. They haven't done it because it's illegal

 
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Trump manipulates the markets like no one before him and the D's either can't figure that out or are in on it and making a killing themselves.

Markets having a bad run. 'ya know, we are close to a china deal'. Markets rally. 'I'm imposing more tariffs'. Markets sell off. Anyone with any info on when he's going to blabber, will make big $.
You realize that is not a positive characteristic of a President, right?

 
Get an extra bottle of wine, not only has the world not ended but your portfolio is up.  :thumbup:
I honestly don't understand what you seem to be boasting about.  By your own admission, you've under-performed for a decade.

 
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Paper money is getting less and less valuable. I don’t care what anyone says. 

Look at the sizes of the box on different things such as cereal. 

If your 401k doubled but you have to pay $10 for bread are you really winning?

 
I honestly don't understand what you seem to be boasting about.  By your own admission, you've under-performed for a decade.
I've performed great for my risk tolerance, thanks for the concern. No boasting, just interested to watch the fear mongering in here. Always interested to see your input as well in the non political thread.  :thumbup:

 
Trump manipulates the markets like no one before him and the D's either can't figure that out or are in on it and making a killing themselves.

Markets having a bad run. 'ya know, we are close to a china deal'. Markets rally. 'I'm imposing more tariffs'. Markets sell off. Anyone with any info on when he's going to blabber, will make big $.
That sounds kind of illegal.

 
Paper money is getting less and less valuable. I don’t care what anyone says. 

Look at the sizes of the box on different things such as cereal. 

If your 401k doubled but you have to pay $10 for bread are you really winning?
We're a nation of fatties anyway.  Smaller portion sizes won't kill us (except for beer - I will NOT drink less beer)

 
Paper money is getting less and less valuable. I don’t care what anyone says. 

Look at the sizes of the box on different things such as cereal. 

If your 401k doubled but you have to pay $10 for bread are you really winning?
Are there people that say otherwise?  I'd like to read THAT argument :lol:
That should have been put to bed in 2008.

 
Yes, repeated drops or a large drop are distinctly bad.  IMO, the Fed did the absolute minimum to equilibrate us with the ex-US situation.  The last few recessions were preceded by multiple rate drops.  If we drop again it's a horrible sign.  Right now we do have a lot of extraneous factors that make USTs easily the best option for safe money (not to mention significant USD strengthening). 

I'm looking at this with open eyes.  If we see rollover in employment, real sales, etc. I'll change my opinion pretty quick.  It isn't there yet and a 1% drop on the DOW isn't going to get me running around like a rooster with it's head cut off.  
FYI, regarding employment:

Annual revisions indicate that employment numbers from the administration were off by over a half million jobs in the last year.  That's one of the largest revisions in the history of the stat.  Hiring was 501,000 jobs less last year than the country thought based on Labor's reporting.

 
Italy destroyed Italian food for me. Nothing is going to taste as good any more.
I bet.  This place is a tiny 20 table restaurant and the owner is from Italy (heavy heavy accent).  He walks around all night with bottles of wine chatting up the tables and pouring wine for everyone.  Super cool vibe and very classic authentic food.  

 
Italy destroyed Italian food for me. Nothing is going to taste as good any more.
no kidding.  the buffalo mozza and burrata they have in their version of 7-11 is better than what we can buy in the italian markets here.

where were you?

 
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FYI, regarding employment:

Annual revisions indicate that employment numbers from the administration were off by over a half million jobs in the last year.  That's one of the largest revisions in the history of the stat.  Hiring was 501,000 jobs less last year than the country thought based on Labor's reporting.
Big number there.

 
Sand said:
Not pissed at Trump over this.  But W and O should be hung out to dry for doing nothing here.
I need help connecting the dots here.  TPP was the vehicle they planned to use to push back on China for these EXACT sorts of things.  I believe that approach started in 2014 or 2015 right?  While there was little known about the details, and a few of the details known were enough for me to be against it, it was still an attempt to begin pushing back on China.  So if you don't fault Trump in this, why do you fault the others in this?  Trump officially pulled us out of that negotiation and has since replaced it with nothing of meaning/significance.  Looking at it logically they are all at fault (for different reasons) or not at fault at all.
no help here?  :kicksrock:  

 
The Commish said:
no help here?  :kicksrock:  
If both the D and R candidate stated that it wasn't worth ratifying why are you coming to the conclusion that this was an adequate response to China's aggression?  I don't know the specifics of the TPP (it was evidently quite extensive in scope), but given the quality (as in horrific) of the Iran deal I lean toward skepticism before assuming this was helpful.

 
If both the D and R candidate stated that it wasn't worth ratifying why are you coming to the conclusion that this was an adequate response to China's aggression?  I don't know the specifics of the TPP (it was evidently quite extensive in scope), but given the quality (as in horrific) of the Iran deal I lean toward skepticism before assuming this was helpful.
"doing nothing here" has become "doing something helpful that i agree with"?

 
If both the D and R candidate stated that it wasn't worth ratifying why are you coming to the conclusion that this was an adequate response to China's aggression?  I don't know the specifics of the TPP (it was evidently quite extensive in scope), but given the quality (as in horrific) of the Iran deal I lean toward skepticism before assuming this was helpful.
I didn't say it was an adequate response.  Words have meaning and when you say "nothing" that means something.  Just like, at the moment, it's false to say Trump is doing "nothing".  The actions of Trump and Obama are the same category yet you are saying fault lies with one but not the other.  It's inconsistent.

When there is a multinational agreement being worked on being lead by the US to push back on China that's the opposite of nothing whether you agree with the agreement or not.  Just like Trump and his tariffs aren't "nothing".  They're tariffs.

 
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You realize that is not a positive characteristic of a President, right?
No duh. You realize that everyone that takes the office of the POTUS is in it to make $, right? They are not in it for a $400k gig. Same for everyone in congress that has been there a long time. They get to do stuff like this and get away with it.

 
No duh. You realize that everyone that takes the office of the POTUS is in it to make $, right? They are not in it for a $400k gig. Same for everyone in congress that has been there a long time. They get to do stuff like this and get away with it.
No...I don't believe its all the same as what you described in what I replied to.

 
FWIW, (and I’m sure some will dismiss it out of hand since it’s Summers), but Summers has an interesting tweet thread on a macro paper he is co-authoring that will be out soon on more or less the Japanification of the world

https://twitter.com/lhsummers/status/1164490326549118976?s=21
John Mauldin has been writing about this - not as scare tactics, but as logic driven realist - for a few years now.  It’s just common sense paired with an understanding of economic history that goes back decades and decades.

We will very likely have a major recession sooner than later.  When that happens, the Fed has few options available that are anything but suboptimal.  An addiction to QE has hamstrung our go-forward ability to dampen the impact of the next recession.

 
John Mauldin has been writing about this - not as scare tactics, but as logic driven realist - for a few years now.  It’s just common sense paired with an understanding of economic history that goes back decades and decades.

We will very likely have a major recession sooner than later.  When that happens, the Fed has few options available that are anything but suboptimal.  An addiction to QE has hamstrung our go-forward ability to dampen the impact of the next recession.
Similar points have been made in these threads. You won't be surprised to find out they are met with laughter and ridicule

 
Similar points have been made in these threads. You won't be surprised to find out they are met with laughter and ridicule
Yeah, I know.  Sadly I lurk in this thread a lot and rarely post.  No doubt there are many in here who’ve had investment success, but some of the ignorance in here is difficult to read.   Anything negative about the current situation gets waved away as Trump bashing, or being a perma-bear, or yadda yadda yadda.

 

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