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Sinn Fein

Stock Market under Trump

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Some of the sentiments I agree with.  China does steal our IP.  We should not be happy about that.

But having Trump in charge of setting policies, directing private companies not to work with China - the sheer brazenness and stupidity of this situation cannot be overstated.

There's huge danger here.  Trump has run plenty of his businesses into the ground - and here he is in charge of our country, recklessly steering it according to his whim.  Honestly, this is a new level of concern based on his actions here.

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42 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Not 100% sure if you are talking about me since you posted right after, but, didn't quote me.  Assuming you are, here is the first blog John Mauldin wrote after the election where he is mocking analysts for being optimistic with the marked in 2017.  He then finishes with a dig at Barron's predicting they would put the S&P estimate at 2400 for the end of 2017, a 10% gain.  He was wrong on both:

A) Barron's didn't come out bullish, they predicted the S&P as flat through 2017.

B) The best part, the S&P was a raging bull in 2017 posting gains of twice what he called "drinking kool aid".

So yeah, the cry wolf effect is because of guys like this, predicting a crash ever since the election.

 

If you are one of the people I described, then yeah, I'm talking about you.  If you aren't lumping the crackpots in with the measured analysis, then I'm not talking about you.  I don't really know your position :shrug:  That's why I didn't quote you specifically.  The blog post you linked uses the word "crash" exactly once and that was in the clickbait title.  Nowhere in that post does he predict a crash.  Sure, his prediction on what Barron's would say was wrong.  The post deals mainly with the reasons why he doesn't believe people should be buying the hype and goes into the reasons he doesn't think people should be as optimistic as they were at the time.  Remember, the sky was the limit and there was no stopping the market depending on how you asked.  That WAS absurd...I believe you'd agree with that.  But this particular post has no predictions that the market was going to crash....it's a crapily titled blog post, but a more appropriate title wouldn't have been as clickbaity....this seems obvious :oldunsure: 

Edited by The Commish

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6 minutes ago, adonis said:

Some of the sentiments I agree with.  China does steal our IP.  We should not be happy about that.

But having Trump in charge of setting policies, directing private companies not to work with China - the sheer brazenness and stupidity of this situation cannot be overstated.

There's huge danger here.  Trump has run plenty of his businesses into the ground - and here he is in charge of our country, recklessly steering it according to his whim.  Honestly, this is a new level of concern based on his actions here.

What 6 out of thousands that happen to all/most be in Atlantic City?

Thanks for the laugh. :lmao:

Edited by GoBirds

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2 minutes ago, GoBirds said:
8 minutes ago, adonis said:

Some of the sentiments I agree with.  China does steal our IP.  We should not be happy about that.

But having Trump in charge of setting policies, directing private companies not to work with China - the sheer brazenness and stupidity of this situation cannot be overstated.

There's huge danger here.  Trump has run plenty of his businesses into the ground - and here he is in charge of our country, recklessly steering it according to his whim.  Honestly, this is a new level of concern based on his actions here.

What 6 out of thousands that happen to all/most be in Atlantic City?

Thanks for the laugh. :lmao:

Wait, you really think Trump had thousands of separate businesses?

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The problem with standard market models pro or con growth/recession is that they can’t account for irascible behavior from a President who doesn’t even know himself what he’s going to do or say or do 24 hours in advance. He’s also likely blocking from his horizon the very fundamentals and data the models are based on. So, good luck to us all I guess.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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3 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

What 6 out of thousands that happen to all/most be in Atlantic City?

Thanks for the laugh. :lmao:

Trump is gambling with our nations economy.  There's nothing funny about having a confidence man with thin skin and a poor understanding of basically everything related to his job having such significant power over our country.

It should be terrifying, and to most folks who see Trump for what he truly is, it is.

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Right now the president of the US is ordering common carriers to search packages for a specific drug that is legal to sell and essentially dump them. He could be declaring war on chestnuts just as well. 

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Just now, adonis said:

Trump is gambling with our nations economy.  There's nothing funny about having a confidence man with thin skin and a poor understanding of basically everything related to his job having such significant power over our country.

It should be terrifying, and to most folks who see Trump for what he truly is, it is.

The funny part is the inaccurate talking points you try to hang onto that have been disproven so many times. 

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Just now, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Right now the president of the US is ordering common carriers to search packages for a specific drug that is legal to sell and essentially dump them. He could be declaring war on chestnuts just as well. 

Insulting foreign leaders, escalating trade wars against one of our biggest trading partners, issuing ridiculous commands to private businesses on how they run their business, issuing ridiculous commands to common carriers...

The man thinks he's an emperor.  And while he does have a golden throne, that this kind of idiotic authoritarianism coming from the mind of a sick individual heavily impacts our individual futures is just terrifying.

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:

The funny part is the inaccurate talking points you try to hang onto that have been disproven so many times. 

It hasn't been disproven that he's run multiple businesses into the ground.  It hasn't been disproven that he's an unethical business leader.  Trump University? Trump foundations?  His casinos?  Banks unwilling to lend him money?  Being a joke in real estate circles?

He's a con man.  He blusters, promotes himself, and has been good at it.  He's left a trail of destruction in his wake.  And now, he's determining policy by imperial fiat for our entire country, and you think it's funny.

God help us all.

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3 minutes ago, adonis said:

Insulting foreign leaders, escalating trade wars against one of our biggest trading partners, issuing ridiculous commands to private businesses on how they run their business, issuing ridiculous commands to common carriers...

The man thinks he's an emperor.  And while he does have a golden throne, that this kind of idiotic authoritarianism coming from the mind of a sick individual heavily impacts our individual futures is just terrifying.

Yeah, but he drives the libs crazy.

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I assume we will get a tweet from Trump this afternoon confirming that Trump merch will no longer be manufactured in China anymore.   

Because he’s for sure not a complete and total hypocrite.  

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10 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

What 6 out of thousands that happen to all/most be in Atlantic City?

Thanks for the laugh. :lmao:

I thought I read that he's the executive of around 500 businesses.  Still a lot.

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37 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

This crackpot is tweeting out orders to companies. :lmao: 

he just wants to control the means of production and pick the economic winners and losers, like any good Capitalist.

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5 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

The funny part is the inaccurate talking points you try to hang onto that have been disproven so many times. 

Why is it so inaccurate?  I'd like to see where it was disproved. 

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Just now, ericttspikes said:

he just wants to control the means of production and pick the economic winners and losers, like any good Capitalist.

Must've gotten advice from his good buddy Putin

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3 minutes ago, adonis said:

It hasn't been disproven that he's run multiple businesses into the ground.  It hasn't been disproven that he's an unethical business leader.  Trump University? Trump foundations?  His casinos?  Banks unwilling to lend him money?  Being a joke in real estate circles?

He's a con man.  He blusters, promotes himself, and has been good at it.  He's left a trail of destruction in his wake.  And now, he's determining policy by imperial fiat for our entire country, and you think it's funny.

God help us all.

Pretending like his success rate isn’t impressive just discredits your ranting even further. Calling out a liar by being untruthful isn’t a great strategy. Carry on though, in here it’s not unusual. 

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4 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

Pretending like his success rate isn’t impressive just discredits your ranting even further. Calling out a liar by being untruthful isn’t a great strategy. Carry on though, in here it’s not unusual. 

Trump is a liar, and I was being truthful.  Just because you don't agree with the conclusions I reach, doesn't mean I'm not being truthful.

Edited by adonis
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14 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

What 6 out of thousands that happen to all/most be in Atlantic City?

Thanks for the laugh. :lmao:

Trump Airlines

Trump Ice

Trump Power

Trump Pale Ale

Trump: The Game (twice)

Trump Magazine

Trump Mortgage

Trump Steaks

GoTrump.com

TrumpNet

Trump Tower Tampa

Trump University

Trump Vodka

Donald Trump: The Fragrance (eww)

 

 

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1 minute ago, adonis said:

Trump is a liar, and I was being truthful.  Just because you don't agree with the conclusions I reach, doesn't mean I'm not being truthful.

Completely agree with you but that’s breath and time you will never get back.  Aka wasted.  

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3 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Trump Airlines

Trump Ice

Trump Power

Trump Pale Ale

Trump: The Game (twice)

Trump Magazine

Trump Mortgage

Trump Steaks

GoTrump.com

TrumpNet

Trump Tower Tampa

Trump University

Trump Vodka

Donald Trump: The Fragrance (eww)

 

 

You’ve got a lot of work to do if you want to show he’s been less successful than most that start a business. Keep that list going, per a link SID provided awhile back he has been involved in thousands and thousands of businesses. 

https://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/top-6-reasons-new-businesses-fail/

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1 minute ago, dkp993 said:

Completely agree with you but that’s breath and time you will never get back.  Aka wasted.  

The real issue here is that a completely ill-equipped person is having his way with our country's economy and foreign trade. 

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Just now, GoBirds said:

You’ve got a lot of work to do if you want to show he’s been less successful than most that start a business. Keep that list going, per a link SID provided awhile back he has been involved in thousands and thousands of businesses. 

https://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/top-6-reasons-new-businesses-fail/

The man has no idea how to run a country.  He doesn't know how to handle foreign policy.  Foreign trade.  Diplomacy.  He doesn't understand basic economics.  He doesn't listen to experts.  He doesn't read.  He's thin skinned and reactionary.  He sucks up to dictators and insults our friends. 

And here he is today, ####### with our economy via tweet because he wants to look strong.  

This is an insecure, little man, posturing on a world stage, using our economy as a bargaining chip in a game he sucks at.

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5 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

You’ve got a lot of work to do if you want to show he’s been less successful than most that start a business. Keep that list going, per a link SID provided awhile back he has been involved in thousands and thousands of businesses. 

https://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/top-6-reasons-new-businesses-fail/

Can you name them?

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The fact that Trump won’t release his taxes is a total tell that he is not nearly as rich as he claims to be.   

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25 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Right now the president of the US is ordering common carriers to search packages for a specific drug that is legal to sell and essentially dump them. He could be declaring war on chestnuts just as well. 

Which drug?

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6 minutes ago, adonis said:

The real issue here is that a completely ill-equipped person is having his way with our country's economy and foreign trade. 

100% completely, wholeheartedly, top to bottom, start to finish agree with.   

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1 minute ago, Sand said:

Which drug?

Fentanyl.  He’s ordered carriers (Amazon, lol) to take on the role of customs and search all packages for fentanyl.   For real.  

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On 8/21/2019 at 12:34 PM, GoBirds said:

I've performed great for my risk tolerance, thanks for the concern. No boasting, just interested to watch the fear mongering in here. Always interested to see your input as well in the non political thread. :thumbup:

As I mentioned a few days ago I would take some time on your behalf.  Here it goes:

Let me get this out of the way - so people can take these comments with the grain of salt that they should.  First of all I did not graduate from Wharton. But for the past 16 years, I have managed a private fund for a small group of investors. I have a graduate degree in Performance Psychology and prior to running this fund I worked as a sport psychologist in private practice as well as a consultant to a number of Club, University and National Teams.  As far as the fund goes, I have as much skin in the game (percentage-wise) as any of the investors. I am very much risk-averse, but also am willing to take thought-thru large bets that might seem risky to others. I’m bullish when the market is bullish and bearish when the market is bearish. And (hopefully) observant enough to recognize the difference.

The fund has evolved over the past 16 years.  With the investors, it is an open-door approach.  And I take all ideas. We want to think critically about every investment decision we make.  The goal is to understand the risk as well as the opportunity. We strike when we feel the technicals align with our opinion so that the probability of a successful trade/investment are on our side.  We are far too small to have any influence on any position taken. I like it that way. There have been plenty of home runs and strike-outs along the way. I am far from perfect. Personally, I really like how we are structured right now, and it’s much less stressful than the days when I mostly day-traded futures/options.

Because of the way this fund is structured - I have an incentive to make money for my investors.  If they don’t turn a profit - I don’t get paid. There have been some years, I lived off savings - and still came into work and worked just as hard as when I made good $. 

And that’s all I have to say about that.  

The Bogleheads Approach your are applying to your investment strategy on the surface is quite simply genius.  Take a few funds and diversify your entire portfolio. Simple and Genus!  And for a long time it was just that.

Let’s look at the Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio.  It is the simplest of them, and compares similarly over time to the others (ie you’re results in any Boglehead portfolio will be similar).  It is comprised of three funds allocated as follows:

  • VTSMX (Total Stock Mkt) - 50%
  • VGTSX (Total Intl Mkt) - 30%
  • VBMFX (Total Bond) - 20%

If we back-test the Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio (from 1998-2007 and compare it the the Benchmark $SP500 Fund (Vanguard 500), we get the following results:

  • Bogleheads CAGR = 7.46%
  • Vanguard 500 CAGR = 5.83%

A ~2% difference in the CAGR is not insignificant - hell even 1% makes a huge difference over your investing lifetime.  Bogleheads KILLED IT over that 10 year time span!

Re-Investing Dividends over that period a $100k portfolio would have grown to:

  • Bogleheads = $100k -> $205,420
  • Vanguard 500= $100k -> $176,249

Again - Bogleheads KILLED IT!

During that 10 years span the Vanguard 500 was up 7 years and down 3 years.  But what’s amazing is that no matter if the market was up or down, the Bogleheads outperformed the Vanguard 500 EVERY SINGLE YEAR!

We can look at the performance here:

Bogleheads Performance 1998-2007

Of course 2008 and 2009 weren’t great times.  But logically we should expect the Bogleheads to once again shine over the past 10 years (2010-Present).  Especially considering it has been the strongest Bull Market in US history. A Bull you likely will never see again.  So how did the Bogleheads Portfolio do?

Not so great.

From 2010-Present:

  • Bogleheads CAGR = 8.61%
  • Vanguard 500 = 12.91%

A 4%+ CAGR under-performance over a 10 year time span is massively significant.  Like the difference between retiring when you are 60 vs 68.  The result is stunning poor.

Re-Investing Dividends over that period a $100k portfolio would have grown to:

  • Bogleheads = $100k -> $220,706
  • Vanguard 500= $100k -> $321,757

This is like a 30% difference. 

Over that 10 year time span the benchmark Vanguard 500 has been down only 1 year (2018).  The Bogleheads has been down 3 years. Perhaps even worse- all 10 years the Bogleheads performed worse than the Vanguard 500.  Now if this happened (under-performing the benchmark) 1 or 2 times over a 10 year period, I’d ignore it completely. If it happened 3 years in a row...I’d be concerned.  10 years in a row, I’d be ####ting my pants - especially considering this is likely to be the strongest longest Bull Market of our lifetimes (THIS IS MISSED OPPORTUNITY THAT YOU WILL NEVER GET BACK). 

We can see the performance here:

Bogleheads 2010-July 2019

Now how about the last few years since Trump has been running the show (for the record, I’m not a big believer in giving credit or blame to the President for stock market performance - but HE DOES, Trump supporters do).

From 2017 - Present

  • Bogleheads CAGR = 9.85%
  • Vanguard 500 CAGR = 13.78%
  • Bogleheads $100k -> $127,473
  • Vanguard 500 $100k -> $139,580

The 30% difference in CAGR remains similar here to the 10 year span - THIS SUCKS!

Performance can be seen here:

Bogleheads 2017-July 2019

Over the past 18 months the performance is worse (of course I’m cherry picking for effect but 18 months to someone 20 years from retirement is 15% of that time - any 18 month period should not be ignored - the clock is ticking.):

  • Bogleheads CAGR = 1.78%
  • Vanguard 500 CAGR = 5.6%

The 1.78% is like a kick in the balls because what it really means is that you have been losing in regard to inflation over the past year and a half (Most of Trump’s term).

Performance can be seen here:

Bogleheads Feb 2018 - July 2019

PERFORMANCE MATTERS!!!!!!!!!!!

That’s why I’m shocked that you’re a “HAVE YOU SEEN YOUR 401K LATELY” kind of guy.  Here we’ve got the best economy in US History; Unemployment at generational lows; the tailwinds of the largest tax cut in US History; The Fed now cutting interest rates; The stock market near all time highs.  And you are not only under-performing - but by a significant amount. Dude - I can tell you - if this were me there would be a lot of hard questions being thrown my way and for good reason. 

In addition what happens if we’re at the tail-end of this bull market run?  What happens if the returns over the next 10 years or 20 years are closer to the last 18 months?

Feel free to use Portfolio Visualizer to examine in more detail.  And what you will come to see is that ALL of the common diversified portfolio strategies have under-performed for 10 years.  Shouldn’t we be asking the hard question why? I would also say: if you can’t beat the SP500 (Vanguard 500)...why not just invest in the SP500?

Not only is the Lazy Investor Strategy not working well - I think we all need to be concerned moving into the future.  I’m not talking about a simple recession either (it’s really the very least of our long term worries). Rather how to prepare for not just the potential of a single black swan event but a flock of them and the dominoes that befall the global economy and stock markets when they hit.  It’s likely coming. That’s not to say one must panic out right now...rather be open to recognizing all potential scenarios and having a plan for them. If this...when this...then that. Many causes for concern are long term fundamental issues that have been ignored for years/decades.  Trump is not the sole blame. However, what I do see is that in many areas we have defined as potential black swan events, Trump’s “leadership”, I believe, is accelerating their probability both in terms of time and likelihood of occurring. I’m not a gradualist - rather lean towards punctuated equilibrium and believe we are very close to a time of very rapid change for humanity.  In our lifetimes! You should be maximizing the opportunity - preparing for a storm and if it never arrives - what have you lost? We frequent a sports oriented message board. I think all of us should be well-versed in what we’d want in a successful organization. Key to successful performance should include a focus on fundamentals, technicals, and preparing for all scenarios. We all have a fiduciary responsibility to manage our investments.  We are, in effect, the coach of our financial decisions. “Lazy” should not be part of the mission strategy. I’m pretty confident you will ignore what I’ve written here. And that’s ok by me. But perhaps someone will find it useful and apply many lessons I’ve learned the hard way.  Good luck because the time is coming you're going to need it, and that time might be sooner than you believe.

 

 

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"trade wars are good, and easy to win"

 

So - this begs the question - was Trump wrong, or is Trump so inept, he can't even win the easy wars?

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

"trade wars are good, and easy to win"

 

So - this begs the question - was Trump wrong, or is Trump so inept, he can't even win the easy wars?

Both?

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51 minutes ago, The Commish said:

If you are one of the people I described, then yeah, I'm talking about you.  If you aren't lumping the crackpots in with the measured analysis, then I'm not talking about you.  I don't really know your position :shrug:  That's why I didn't quote you specifically.  The blog post you linked uses the word "crash" exactly once and that was in the clickbait title.  Nowhere in that post does he predict a crash.  Sure, his prediction on what Barron's would say was wrong.  The post deals mainly with the reasons why he doesn't believe people should be buying the hype and goes into the reasons he doesn't think people should be as optimistic as they were at the time.  Remember, the sky was the limit and there was no stopping the market depending on how you asked.  That WAS absurd...I believe you'd agree with that.  But this particular post has no predictions that the market was going to crash....it's a crapily titled blog post, but a more appropriate title wouldn't have been as clickbaity....this seems obvious :oldunsure: 

:lmao: Oh come'on.  That's my whole point.

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@siffoin I love your posts like this, need to find some time to absorb it all running hard today. No doubt experts like you can find a better return than guys like me in other fields with little time to invest. While in hindsight I wish I was all in Vanguard 500 I’m also so grateful I wasn’t afraid and went all in 2010 in stocks vs being cash afraid the world would end. I just opened my first Vanguard account 2 years ago and while I know it’s not too Return for my risk tolerance and low expense I’m a convert. Def interesting to study your info and open to new ideas, thanks for putting it together. :hifive:

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19 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

"trade wars are good, and easy to win"

 

So - this begs the question - was Trump wrong, or is Trump so inept, he can't even win the easy wars?

Trick question. He is usually wrong and is very inept.

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41 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Fentanyl, it’s legal for prescription use.

I didn't know that it was legal at all.  It is certainly causing a lot of damage out there.  Does it have to come in with an import license?  It should be controlled in some way.

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1 minute ago, Sand said:

I didn't know that it was legal at all.  It is certainly causing a lot of damage out there.  Does it have to come in with an import license?  It should be controlled in some way.

Gosh if only the founding fathers had thought of a way to do this.

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1 minute ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Gosh if only the founding fathers had thought of a way to do this.

No need to be snarky.  I truly know little about how controlled drugs are imported.  It was a practical question, not a constitutional jab.

Take off your Falcons helmet and be cool, K?

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2 minutes ago, Sand said:

No need to be snarky.  I truly know little about how controlled drugs are imported.  It was a practical question, not a constitutional jab.

Take off your Falcons helmet and be cool, K?

Lol ok thanks for the check. I mean of course we want to fix anything bad. The President of the USA randomly ordering private companies to interfere in commerce at his instruction is sheer nutzo. It’s like when the Saints hired an astronaut as their GM. That didn’t work out too well, just to tie this together.

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So Trump to the economy, is like a rain forest fire to climate change?

52 minutes ago, siffoin said:

  Trump is not the sole blame. However, what I do see is that in many areas we have defined as potential black swan events, Trump’s “leadership”, I believe, is accelerating their probability both in terms of time and likelihood of occurring. I’m not a gradualist - rather lean towards punctuated equilibrium and believe we are very close to a time of very rapid change for humanity.  In our lifetimes! You should be maximizing the opportunity - preparing for a storm and if it never arrives - what have you lost? We frequent a sports oriented message board. I think all of us should be well-versed in what we’d want in a successful organization. Key to successful performance should include a focus on fundamentals, technicals, and preparing for all scenarios. We all have a fiduciary responsibility to manage our investments.  We are, in effect, the coach of our financial decisions. “Lazy” should not be part of the mission strategy. I’m pretty confident you will ignore what I’ve written here. And that’s ok by me. But perhaps someone will find it useful and apply many lessons I’ve learned the hard way.  Good luck because the time is coming you're going to need it, and that time might be sooner than you believe.

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts. Always appreciated.

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1 hour ago, adonis said:

The man has no idea how to run a country.  He doesn't know how to handle foreign policy.  Foreign trade.  Diplomacy.  He doesn't understand basic economics.  He doesn't listen to experts.  He doesn't read.  He's thin skinned and reactionary.  He sucks up to dictators and insults our friends. 

And here he is today, ####### with our economy via tweet because he wants to look strong.  

This is an insecure, little man, posturing on a world stage, using our economy as a bargaining chip in a game he sucks at.

It's amazing to me the sheer number of Americans who refuse to take off their blinders and see this wretched individual for who he truly is. Simply amazing. I've given up trying to understand why. I prolly know the answer anyway.

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Just now, Ruffrodys05 said:

It's amazing to me the sheer number of Americans who refuse to take off their blinders and see this wretched individual for who he truly is. Simply amazing. I've given up trying to understand why. I prolly know the answer anyway.

Blinders?

More like alternate reality glasses.

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6 minutes ago, Lutherman2112 said:

Blinders?

More like alternate reality glasses.

No collusion, no obstruction....

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28 minutes ago, Sand said:

No need to be snarky.  I truly know little about how controlled drugs are imported.  It was a practical question, not a constitutional jab.

Take off your Falcons helmet and be cool, K?

Yes fentanyl is a controlled substance.  No you can't legally just order it from China.  

 

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