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Stock Market under Trump (2 Viewers)

pecorino said:
I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know what is happening in the markets. I’m bearish, considering the flashing warning signs but I can’t deny the incredible run-up lately. I’ll keeo selling or selling calls until I’m completely sold out and holding cash or gold. My level of FOMO is very low while my worries remain steadfast, so sell I do.
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Yep. I readily admit I’m an economy guy not a market guy.  I’ll defend to the death my views on economics, but what that means for short term market gains and losses - I am nowhere near the expert on those that some others in this thread are, and often don’t fully understand when investor confidence drives up as indicators get worse.  Such is life.

Mid-range amounts of time... I strongly don’t like the look. But I’m also a pessimist.  I’d be happy to be wrong. 

 
My view is if you see losses or sub-5% gains coming in the next 12 months and and have debt over 5% you kill your debt and come out at least even, prepared to re-borrow at lower interest rates and buy low. But what do I know.  

 
Henry Ford said:
My view is if you see losses or sub-5% gains coming in the next 12 months and and have debt over 5% you kill your debt and come out at least even, prepared to re-borrow at lower interest rates and buy low. But what do I know.  
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If that debt is a mortgage, you should refi now.  If it's something else, you really shouldn't be investing more than the match anyway...

 
That hypothetical was gangbusters until about  10 years ago and now everyone’s like “5%? Who pays 5% for a mortgage?”

sigh. 

 
Stock market up for 8 straight days, three weeks straight and I think within .5 of record high.  Lots of reasons to not vote for Trump,  but if you vote with your pocketbook you have to consider giving him your vote.

 
Gopher State said:
Stock market up for 8 straight days, three weeks straight and I think within .5 of record high.  Lots of reasons to not vote for Trump,  but if you vote with your pocketbook you have to consider giving him your vote.
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Just to clarify, you mean the Dow and not the S&P 500 as other would prefer we discuss the stock market?

 
Ruffrodys05 said:
When I cast my vote for a president, I vote for what's best for the country as a whole, NOT for what's personally best for me and my wallet. It's literally the difference btw Republicans and Democrats. One side is selfish, the other is not. I prefer to be not selfish. To each his/her own though.
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Everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voted for what is best for the country and as a bonus their pocketbooks.

 
Ruffrodys05 said:
When I cast my vote for a president, I vote for what's best for the country as a whole, NOT for what's personally best for me and my wallet. It's literally the difference btw Republicans and Democrats. One side is selfish, the other is not. I prefer to be not selfish. To each his/her own though.
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To be fair there are plenty of Trump voters who voted against their best interests. Most still haven’t figured it out.

 
Gopher State said:
Stock market up for 8 straight days, three weeks straight and I think within .5 of record high.  Lots of reasons to not vote for Trump,  but if you vote with your pocketbook you have to consider giving him your vote.
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The fear mongering in here has been taking it on the chin for sure. 

 
Sand said:
NREC34 said:
“No one knows what’s going on”

This ought to scare everyone, even the Trumpers who come in here and say everything is fine. 
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ZH isn't on Tim's list of approved news sources.
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It is a very misleading site most of the time.  These are terminal screenshots though and the spike in repo rates looks real (although who knows what, if anything, is trading at those levels).

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/fed-to-conduct-technical-repo-operation-tuesday-to-keep-its-benchmark-rate-where-it-wants-it.html

 
Slapdash said:
It is a very misleading site most of the time.  These are terminal screenshots though and the spike in repo rates looks real (although who knows what, if anything, is trading at those levels).

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/fed-to-conduct-technical-repo-operation-tuesday-to-keep-its-benchmark-rate-where-it-wants-it.html
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Good stuff in the financial times (with some speculation of who got caught out at the end):  https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/09/17/1568722701000/Lookout--there-s-a-dollar-crunch-/

 
NREC34 said:
It’s all over financial twitter. Not just ZH. 

I watched a few minutes of CNBC at the open and didn’t hear them talking about it so I reckon all is well. 
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I flip back and forth between FB and CNBC and didn't hear anything on it.  Who knows.

I don't do the twitters, so really would have no idea what veracity that has.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Fed had to infuse $53B into overnight markets to alleviate stress to overnight lending rates. No one knows why yet. First time this has happened since the crisis. 
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:mellow:

link?

Edit: never mind. Everywhere. 

 
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Mr. Ham said:
Yes, and as much of my decision is belief poor current policy will beget a recession, and that a Democrat will win the next election and markets will temper to that reality. Possibility both combine and we see 10%+ drop (maybe 20%) within the next 12-18 months. I don’t want to have to adjust after the fact, or weather the volatility. 
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Weird. My 401k, last time I checked was up 23% this year. That was several weeks ago before the latest high. You're worried you can't withstand a 10-20% downturn when Dems regain control and fix this thing?  You're doing it wrong. 

 
tonydead said:
Weird. My 401k, last time I checked was up 23% this year. That was several weeks ago before the latest high. You're worried you can't withstand a 10-20% downturn when Dems regain control and fix this thing?  You're doing it wrong. 
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What’s it up since October 2018, after adjusting out your contributions?

 
The stock market (S&P index) isn't going to see a fundamental hit until either (a) the bond side begins offering more appealing returns or (b) believably pro-regulatory/reformist people take both the Executive and Legislative branches.   Sure, there will be hiccups now and then, but not a reset of the Schiller PE10.

I don't see worldwide rates rising anytime soon, and US politicians by and large are beholden to the major corporations.  We will just slowly grind higher.  In the near term (12mo) I actually think there is more risk of a melt-up than a melt-down (trade deal).  I wouldn't be out of the market right now, but yes I would take profits here and there if I was trying to establish a more conservative asset allocation.  Which I personally need to do to some extent.

 
What’s the FED going to do today, guys?

If they don’t cut which is probably the best thing they could do I bet the market almost immediately drops 4 digits. 

So I am guessing they will cut. 

 
NREC34 said:
What’s the FED going to do today, guys?

If they don’t cut which is probably the best thing they could do I bet the market almost immediately drops 4 digits. 

So I am guessing they will cut. 
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Cut another quarter point...which is saying something

 
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msommer said:
Some roostin' coming on?
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Perfect song for Trump supporters, but not Trump himself, as I don't think he believes his own lies:

Everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team
Everything is awesome, when you're living out a dream

Everything is better when we stick together
Some have said you and I are gonna win forever?
Lets party forever
We're the same unlike you, you're like me we're all working in harmony

Everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team
Everything is awesome, when you're living out a dream

Woo! Three, two, one, go!
Have you heard the news? Everyone's talkin'
Life is good 'cause everything awesome
Lost my job, there's a new opportunity
More free time for my awesome community
I feel more awesome than an awesome possum
Dip my body in chocolate frostin'
Three years later wash off the frostin'
Smellin' like a blossom, everything is awesome
Stepped in mud, got new brown shoes
It's awesome to win and it's awesome to lose

Everything is better when we stick together
Side by side, you and I gonna win forever?
Let's party forever
We're the same unlike you, you're like me we're all working in harmony

Everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team
Everything is awesome, when you're living out a dream

Blue skies, bouncy springs, we just named a few awesome things
A Nobel prize, a piece of string
You know what's awesome? Everything!
Dogs with fleas, allergies
A book of Greek antiquities
Brand new pants, a very old vest
Awesome items are the best
Trees, (frogs), clogs, they're awesome
Rocks, clocks, and socks, they're awesome
Figs, and jigs, and twigs, that's awesome
Everything you see or think or say is awesome

Everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team
Everything is awesome, when you're living out a dream
Click to expand...

 
Sand said:
Que?

We have been in a rising rate, quantitative tightening economy until today.  As of today we have dropped rates a shade and gone to neutral on the QE/QI scale.
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Sand said:
Yes, repeated drops or a large drop are distinctly bad.  IMO, the Fed did the absolute minimum to equilibrate us with the ex-US situation.  The last few recessions were preceded by multiple rate drops.  If we drop again it's a horrible sign.  Right now we do have a lot of extraneous factors that make USTs easily the best option for safe money (not to mention significant USD strengthening). 

I'm looking at this with open eyes.  If we see rollover in employment, real sales, etc. I'll change my opinion pretty quick.  It isn't there yet and a 1% drop on the DOW isn't going to get me running around like a rooster with it's head cut off.  
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The fed injected $128 billion into markets in the past 24 hours.  Calls for QE are starting. And today will likely make two consecutive rate drops. 

 
NREC34 said:
This is what a couple of guys in the thread and our brilliant president wants. 

I believe it means the economy is going great. 
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Everyone agrees that a recession will hit eventually. 

I cannot fathom why people don’t realize that when it hits you want to have tools you can use to ease the hit on the country. Like lowering rates. 

 
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