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Stock Market under Trump

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5 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

:popcorn:

Now that the market is almost at all time highs the comments from the echo chamber are not on the stock market anymore.  Interesting.

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3 hours ago, The Commish said:

The evaluation of those points is typically reliable under normal circumstances where the gov't knows it's role and doesn't go flying off the handle at random points. 

So everyone should know when the next recession is coming?  Every recession takes the vast, vast majority of investors by surprise.

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25 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Wait. If rates go below zero, does that mean I can borrow money and get paid for it?

Sign me up!

Depends how negative they go.

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11 minutes ago, Sand said:

So everyone should know when the next recession is coming?  Every recession takes the vast, vast majority of investors by surprise.

Not the crew in here, they are sharp. 

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32 minutes ago, Sand said:
4 hours ago, The Commish said:

The evaluation of those points is typically reliable under normal circumstances where the gov't knows it's role and doesn't go flying off the handle at random points. 

So everyone should know when the next recession is coming?  Every recession takes the vast, vast majority of investors by surprise.

You are absolutely TERRIBLE at reading comprehension and context.  Is this a genuine question or just shtick?  I suspect the latter given your desire to edit my actual words, but I want to make sure. 

Edited by The Commish
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On 8/14/2019 at 10:35 AM, jamny said:

Seems like a buying opportunity to me. Selling on the yield curve news is based on fear. It's not an indication of a recession like something like a negative GDP is. There happens to be a recent history of having it show up 8-22 months before a recession. So, even if it is a sign, it is a ways off. Add to that the Honk Kong story and you see what is happening today. Probably take a day or two to settle out but a lot of people will be making money on this pullback. 

Good call!

On 8/14/2019 at 6:46 AM, NREC34 said:

Noonan and Birds

whats up guys 

 

On 8/14/2019 at 7:41 AM, Don't Noonan said:

It looks like you are getting emotional yet again with the volatility.  Probably for the best you sit in cash as you clearly don't have the stomach for investing in the market.  As a long term investor I am quite pleased and am willing to ride out some short term drops for long term success.  Good Luck!

Hope you stayed in cash

On 8/14/2019 at 8:00 AM, NREC34 said:

Trump lovers will blame dems and then  quietly pull their money out as well as all the smart ones that already have. 

Hmmmmmmmm

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2 hours ago, Don't Noonan said:

Now that the market is almost at all time highs the comments from the echo chamber are not on the stock market anymore.  Interesting.

Awesome, back to where we were in July!

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It's not really interesting, the opposite in fact. It's a well established, predictable pattern. Stock market goes up, the Trump supporters start posting, wondering where everyone else is. The stock market goes down, everyone else starts posting, wondering where the Trump supporter are. Over and over again. A big waste of time and energy.

Edited by Gr00vus
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4 hours ago, timschochet said:

Wait. If rates go below zero, does that mean I can borrow money and get paid for it?

Sign me up!

Not sure if you wanted a serious answer, but the actual answer is not quite.   It means you can, for example, borrow $100 at 0% interest to pay $99 back.

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55 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

It's not really interesting, the opposite in fact. It's a well established, predictable pattern. Stock market goes up, the Trump supporters start posting, wondering where everyone else is. The stock market goes down, everyone else starts posting, wondering where the Trump supporter are. Over and over again. A big waste of time and energy.

While I generally agree, the multiple pages of panic and finger pointing by the dozen or so posters during a pullback far outweigh the few that come on to cheer the good news and occasionally gloat. Understandably so because fear is a motivator and finger pointing is often the result but it's not exactly apples to apples. At least not here in the PSF, where it is decidedly anti-Trump.

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3 minutes ago, hxperson said:

Not sure if you wanted a serious answer, but the actual answer is not quite.   It means you can, for example, borrow $100 at 0% interest to pay $99 back.

I wasn’t being serious but since you responded, how can any bank do this and stay in business? Where is the profit? 

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10 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I wasn’t being serious but since you responded, how can any bank do this and stay in business? Where is the profit? 

Can't we just take some of the profits we are making off of  the tariffs and subsidise the banks like we are doing the farmers?

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7 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I wasn’t being serious but since you responded, how can any bank do this and stay in business? Where is the profit? 

When it comes to bonds, they can make money if yields go even lower.  As it pertains to private loans, they can’t make money.  That is why the ECB faces a bit of a conundrum with their monetary policy, as moving rates further into negative territory risks reducing credit impulses, counteracting the purpose of cutting rates.

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46 minutes ago, jamny said:

While I generally agree, the multiple pages of panic and finger pointing by the dozen or so posters during a pullback far outweigh the few that come on to cheer the good news and occasionally gloat. Understandably so because fear is a motivator and finger pointing is often the result but it's not exactly apples to apples. At least not here in the PSF, where it is decidedly anti-Trump.

Definitely more everyone elses than Trump supporters in here. Same pattern applies in most partisan threads in this subforum. It's beyond tiresome at this point, and I say that as a liberal who loathes Trump and his enablers in the Republican party.

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7 hours ago, timschochet said:

Wait. If rates go below zero, does that mean I can borrow money and get paid for it?

Sign me up!

Sign me up too!   Sign me up for student loan relief as well.   Still have 36K on the books so I need some free $$$$

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14 minutes ago, Summer Wheat said:

Sign me up too!   Sign me up for student loan relief as well.   Still have 36K on the books so I need some free $$$$

Vote Bernie or Warren and your dreams will come true

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3 hours ago, jamny said:

At least not here in the PSF, where it is decidedly anti-Trump.

Many of us for years have talked about what a great place this is and how there’s lots of good people here, many willing to do awesome things for complete strangers.  I’ve always agreed with that sentiment and your sentence above just confirm it for me.  It’s not a negative, it’s a positive.  

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6 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Many of us for years have talked about what a great place this is and how there’s lots of good people here, many willing to do awesome things for complete strangers.  I’ve always agreed with that sentiment and your sentence above just confirm it for me.  It’s not a negative, it’s a positive.  

So you are one of a few that admit this is an Anti-Trump forum?

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9 minutes ago, John Blutarsky said:

So you are one of a few that admit this is an Anti-Trump forum?

Whats to admit? Seems obvious. Some of us have been here 16 years, from all walks of life and from all over America.  Amazing that so many anti Trump people just happened to join here so many years ago.

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3 minutes ago, John Blutarsky said:

So you are one of a few that admit this is an Anti-Trump forum?

Of course this place is anti-Trump.  It’s filled with mostly educated, mostly professionals with time to post online during the day and are older and still in to Internet forums.  Doesn’t seem controversial to me to say it’s anti-Trump and honestly it makes me happy to be a part of the community.  I’m happily anti-Trump, he’s a horrible President and a horrible human being.

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2 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Of course this place is anti-Trump.  It’s filled with mostly educated, mostly professionals with time to post online during the day and are older and still in to Internet forums.  Doesn’t seem controversial to me to say it’s anti-Trump and honestly it makes me happy to be a part of the community.  I’m happily anti-Trump, he’s a horrible President and a horrible human being.

I appreciate your honesty. It’s laughable that Sho liked your post. He claims this place doesn’t have an Anti-Trump bias. Have a great night.

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26 minutes ago, Mile High said:

Whats to admit? Seems obvious. Some of us have been here 16 years, from all walks of life and from all over America.  Amazing that so many anti Trump people just happened to join here so many years ago.

 

25 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Of course this place is anti-Trump.  It’s filled with mostly educated, mostly professionals with time to post online during the day and are older and still in to Internet forums.  Doesn’t seem controversial to me to say it’s anti-Trump and honestly it makes me happy to be a part of the community.  I’m happily anti-Trump, he’s a horrible President and a horrible human being.

Worst kept secret ever.  Though, I don't think the hate is specific to Trump.  If there was anyone behaving as a morally bankrupt disgusting human being, this place wouldn't like that person.

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9 minutes ago, The Commish said:

 

Worst kept secret ever.  Though, I don't think the hate is specific to Trump.  If there was anyone behaving as a morally bankrupt disgusting human being, this place wouldn't like that person.

Tatum Bell could probably get away with it. 

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8 hours ago, timschochet said:

I wasn’t being serious but since you responded, how can any bank do this and stay in business? Where is the profit? 

Fees and they borrow at a lower interest (delta interest is always positive for them). Eventually they will charge interest on holdings such as savings accounts as well

Edited by msommer

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4 hours ago, John Blutarsky said:

I appreciate your honesty. It’s laughable that Sho liked your post. He claims this place doesn’t have an Anti-Trump bias. Have a great night.

Umm, I don't think "having a bias" means what you think it does. Does this place have an anti-Hitler bias? A pro-gravity bias?

Having more people on one side of an argument is not indicative of bias. Most of the time it means one side has more proof, is more convincing, etc. It can involve bias, but usually those effects are more subtle. 

When Trump only has a 34% approval rating among independents (Carter is the only President to have had a lower one at this point in his term),  it should come as no surprise that most of the news, postings, and posters are anti-Trump. He sucks at his job, is proud of how much he sucks, and rubs people's noses in how much he sucks because he knows his people get a kick out of it. What's not to love?

He's good at sexual assault and racism and making anti-intellectual (i.e. stupid), impulsive, ego-based decisions (oh, and losing money), so it's kind of surprising his approval rating isn't even lower. If anything it indicates a bias in the opposite direction.

For some reason the white, poorly educated men who make up his base are impervious to seeing what is so clearly obvious to everyone else.

Gee, I wonder why that is :whistle:

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1 hour ago, NREC34 said:

Core inflation at one year high. Not good. 

Might be the only thing that can keep the Fed from cutting rates, so that depends on your perspective.

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Hey if you get 100 rational human beings together, a majority of them might conclude Trump is a buffoon. shocking.

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EU close to implosion with this news today. Day is drawing nearer where Don’s manipulations won’t matter. 

He seems very desperate. 

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On 9/11/2019 at 8:57 AM, Don't Noonan said:

I don't neccessarily disagree with you here.  The economy has already slowed a bit mostly due to the tariffs.  I just don't see a recession in the next 12 months.  People are too focused on inverted yield curve but that is just one leading indicator and the majority still look positive.

Which economic leading indicators are you referring to?

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12 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

Of course this place is anti-Trump.  It’s filled with mostly educated, mostly professionals with time to post online during the day and are older and still in to Internet forums.  Doesn’t seem controversial to me to say it’s anti-Trump and honestly it makes me happy to be a part of the community.  I’m happily anti-Trump, he’s a horrible President and a horrible human being.

 It was almost unanimous that what makes this place special is the selflessness of the individuals and how collectively we would help each other out even if it were emotional support.  There have always been political differences between the posters but that was mostly secondary to our overwhelming sense of empathy for each other as a community.  I have no choice but to believe we will be unified again in the future.

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17 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

It's not really interesting, the opposite in fact. It's a well established, predictable pattern. Stock market goes up, the Trump supporters start posting, wondering where everyone else is. The stock market goes down, everyone else starts posting, wondering where the Trump supporter are. Over and over again. A big waste of time and energy.

Every time I see this thread bumped I think..OK the market is falling and the anti-Trumpers are happy and posting, or the market is up and pro- Trumpers are happy and posting.  Since I don`t watch the market day to day always hesitant to click on this thread.

Edited by Da Guru
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56 minutes ago, Da Guru said:

Every time I see this thread bumped I think..OK the market is falling and the anti-Trumpers are happy and posting, or the market is up and pro- Trumpers are happy and posting.  Since I don`t watch the market day to day always hesitant to click on this thread.

Sometimes there's good stuff in here. I always read @Sand's posts even though I don't usually agree with him politically - he posts insightful things from perspectives I hadn't considered. Several others posters like that too. Problem is, that gets drowned out by all the redundant back and forth. It's a shame.

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1 hour ago, Da Guru said:

Every time I see this thread bumped I think..OK the market is falling and the anti-Trumpers are happy and posting, or the market is up and pro- Trumpers are happy and posting.  Since I don`t watch the market day to day always hesitant to click on this thread.

My recommendation would be to ignore this thread and day-to-day market changes 

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5 hours ago, NREC34 said:

EU close to implosion with this news today. Day is drawing nearer where Don’s manipulations won’t matter. 

He seems very desperate. 

Say what now?

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2 hours ago, msommer said:

Say what now?

Quantitative easing. 

Not to mention Brexit. 

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8 hours ago, Da Guru said:

Every time I see this thread bumped I think..OK the market is falling and the anti-Trumpers are happy and posting, or the market is up and pro- Trumpers are happy and posting.  Since I don`t watch the market day to day always hesitant to click on this thread.

That’s fair.  Sometimes people come in to discuss economic news that may affect the stock market, but generally yes - it’s more of a reactive discussion with people sure that their perspective of the future is happening right now. 

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53 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

That’s fair.  Sometimes people come in to discuss economic news that may affect the stock market, but generally yes - it’s more of a reactive discussion with people sure that their perspective of the future is happening right now. 

Then you see it as well.  If it goes down 4-500 it is the end of the world, if it goes up 4-500 happy days are here again. That is not exactly how it works.

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54 minutes ago, Da Guru said:

Then you see it as well.  If it goes down 4-500 it is the end of the world, if it goes up 4-500 happy days are here again. That is not exactly how it works.

No.  However if it goes down 4-500 because of the President tweeting or announcing new idiotic tariffs, it’s a very very bad thing and makes me want to scream into the ether. 

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1 minute ago, Henry Ford said:

No.  However if it goes down 4-500 because of the President tweeting or announcing new idiotic tariffs, it’s a very very bad thing and makes me want to scream into the ether. 

Of course, but the water will eventually find it`s level.

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On 9/11/2019 at 1:51 PM, The Commish said:

You are absolutely TERRIBLE at reading comprehension and context.  Is this a genuine question or just shtick?  I suspect the latter given your desire to edit my actual words, but I want to make sure. 

I'm an engineer, so the description goes without saying.  However, I can say I precisely modified or had a desire to modify exactly zero letters in your quote.  

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2 minutes ago, Sand said:

I'm an engineer, so the description goes without saying.  However, I can say I precisely modified or had a desire to modify exactly zero letters in your quote.  

Your question is answered with the context you intentionally took out when quoting me

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9 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

I always read @Sand's posts even though I don't usually agree with him politically - he posts insightful things from perspectives I hadn't considered. 

My feelings on this statement.

 

13 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

No.  However if it goes down 4-500 because of the President tweeting or announcing new idiotic tariffs, it’s a very very bad thing and makes me want to scream into the ether. 

If you scream into the air you get one thing, into a vacuum you get nothing.  What does screaming into the ether sound like, exactly?

 

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4 minutes ago, Sand said:

My feelings on this statement.

 

If you scream into the air you get one thing, into a vacuum you get nothing.  What does screaming into the ether sound like, exactly?

 

I don’t know, my hearing just kind of turns off and I hear this “womp womp” over and over again in my ears. 

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I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know what is happening in the markets. I’m bearish, considering the flashing warning signs but I can’t deny the incredible run-up lately. I’ll keeo selling or selling calls until I’m completely sold out and holding cash or gold. My level of FOMO is very low while my worries remain steadfast, so sell I do.

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1 hour ago, pecorino said:

I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know what is happening in the markets. I’m bearish, considering the flashing warning signs but I can’t deny the incredible run-up lately. I’ll keeo selling or selling calls until I’m completely sold out and holding cash or gold. My level of FOMO is very low while my worries remain steadfast, so sell I do.

Yep. I readily admit I’m an economy guy not a market guy.  I’ll defend to the death my views on economics, but what that means for short term market gains and losses - I am nowhere near the expert on those that some others in this thread are, and often don’t fully understand when investor confidence drives up as indicators get worse.  Such is life.

Mid-range amounts of time... I strongly don’t like the look. But I’m also a pessimist.  I’d be happy to be wrong. 

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My view is if you see losses or sub-5% gains coming in the next 12 months and and have debt over 5% you kill your debt and come out at least even, prepared to re-borrow at lower interest rates and buy low. But what do I know.  

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6 hours ago, NREC34 said:

Quantitative easing. 

Not to mention Brexit. 

Argument for implosion?

ETA: declarative statement notwithstanding

Edited by msommer

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