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Stock Market under Trump (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
GROOT
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk
Some numbers on unemployment claims: The all time weekly high, Seasonally Adjusted, was 695,000 in Oct 82. The high during the great recession was 665,000 in Mar 09. Based on state reports, those numbers will be obliterated in the report released next week (for this week).
@calculatedrisk
Some numbers on unemployment claims: The all time weekly high, Seasonally Adjusted, was 695,000 in Oct 82. The high during the great recession was 665,000 in Mar 09. Based on state reports, those numbers will be obliterated in the report released next week (for this week).
BladeRunner
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Seems to be something along the lines of "if the reports we are hearing here and there are true, unemployment numbers are going to be bad when they are released"
beef
Footballguy
I take Mnuchin's 20% unemployment comment as a way to pressure Congress in acting. That's crazy levels, but I get it and why he would say that. The CV fear is causing a lot of world economic fear. And there seems to be a lot of uncertainty among economists too.
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20% is both crazy, and yet not as unrealistic as many might think when you consider the make-up of the work force - how many hourly workers working in retail, or food services, or any number of other businesses that are completely (or nearly) shut down during this episode.
Consumer confidence is also likely to be shattered, making a quick turnaround, even when the health issues go away, an iffy proposition.
Consumer confidence is also likely to be shattered, making a quick turnaround, even when the health issues go away, an iffy proposition.
apalmer
Footballguy
You're in a car moving along at 70 mph and you think, "Wow, this engine is great!" Twenty miles later, you're still going at the same speed. Do you start to think "Wow, I'm doing much better now"? A few miles later, one of your tires blows out and you have to pull over. Do you say, "I guess that engine wasn't so great after all"?
The Commish
Footballguy
I think it's pretty irresponsible to throw numbers like that out in our current state of uncertainty not because they are inaccurate, but because there is virtually ZERO goodwill between the economy and this administration. Beef is probably correct that this is a way of attempting to get Congress to act. It's an incredibly irresponsible way to act unless he follows it up with a "and here's why we believe this to be true" report. That said, Sinn Fein is also correct that the number could very well be correct and not hyperbole. Again, that's why we need to see what they are basing it on. Ordinarily, we'd be able to generally trust what an administration is saying, but with this one, "show your work" is a required demand.
I will disagree with you a little bit Sinn Fein on your last statement. In a confidence driven market, it can turn on a dime in either direction. If lack of confidence still prevails after the issue goes away, it's not going to be because of lack of financial confidence. It's going to be because this administration is going to be out and about shouting the all clear and people aren't going to trust them. During that phase, there will be billions to be made for those ignoring the
and sticking with their financial instincts.I think the lack of confidence will be a self-feeding monster.
This is going to be a hit for most people financially - so they will be financially insecure - relative to say, December. Also, there will be a lot of people out of work - making everyone a little job insecure on top of that. Less money -> less incentive to spend -> harder for businesses to ramp back up -> harder to start hiring again -> people with less money ->
These factors - on top of the generally jitteriness of the health epidemic - I think will not allow confidence to turn on a dime. It will be a slow slog where businesses will have to act first in terms of taking a leap of faith that consumers will follow - ramp up hiring, even in the face of low consumer demand. We will see how many businesses are willing to take that leap of faith.
This is going to be a hit for most people financially - so they will be financially insecure - relative to say, December. Also, there will be a lot of people out of work - making everyone a little job insecure on top of that. Less money -> less incentive to spend -> harder for businesses to ramp back up -> harder to start hiring again -> people with less money ->
These factors - on top of the generally jitteriness of the health epidemic - I think will not allow confidence to turn on a dime. It will be a slow slog where businesses will have to act first in terms of taking a leap of faith that consumers will follow - ramp up hiring, even in the face of low consumer demand. We will see how many businesses are willing to take that leap of faith.
I guess I should have prefaced this with - the broader economy will suffer, not that people can't or won't make money in the stock market.I will disagree with you a little bit Sinn Fein on your last statement. In a confidence driven market, it can turn on a dime in either direction. If lack of confidence still prevails after the issue goes away, it's not going to be because of lack of financial confidence. It's going to be because this administration is going to be out and about shouting the all clear and people aren't going to trust them. During that phase, there will be billions to be made for those ignoring the
I am not anticipating a v-shaped recovery though. If we get it, great - but this feels far more disruptive to the fundamentals of the economy to expect a quick fix.
The Commish
Footballguy
Sorry GB....I thought you were talking about the markets. They will be "back" long before the whole economy is. I agree with you looking from this other lens. We'll be back to "but my 401k!!!!" shtick way sooner than I want to be.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Obama has to own the stock performance during the time he was in office just like Trump has to own it during his presidency (but he won't and neither will you).
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Dow now less than when Trump took office. The question is how much lower will it sink. This sucks... 
Godsbrother
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
My favorite part of the day is Mnuchin creating unnecessary panic while pontificating on 20% unemployment only to come back and say he will vow to not let his made up 20% unemployment happen. Gold Jerry...Pure Gold!!! 
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
We need a "sadly I agree" emote on the right to click. :(Sinn Fein said:
did anyone see ackmann sp? from pershing on cnbc last hour?
calling for global 30 day shutdown. everyone go home.
says it's that or millions of deaths and collapse of global economy.
then says he's bullish if the global shutdown happens.
don't know how one can view it now, but bet someone does, and that a link would be very interesting to many.
he was remarkable. i'm understating.
(then again highlights will probably get played widely)
calling for global 30 day shutdown. everyone go home.
says it's that or millions of deaths and collapse of global economy.
then says he's bullish if the global shutdown happens.
don't know how one can view it now, but bet someone does, and that a link would be very interesting to many.
he was remarkable. i'm understating.
(then again highlights will probably get played widely)
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BladeRunner
Footballguy
Yeah, I know "Orange Man Bad". We've been hearing it for 3.5 years now and we're going to hear it for the next 4.5 years too.
Can you just address the context of the argument without having to complain about Trump? Is that too much to ask? Your tangent had ZERO to do with the context of the post.
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The Commish
Footballguy
Listening to his presser a bit ago and the "reason" used on the complete reversal of narrative was because they were completely unaware of what they called the "surface component" (or something similar..sorry, I forget the exact wording) where they had no clue about how long it could survive on surfaces. Not exactly sure what to do with that...it's quite remarkable.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I am not sure why you are so offended that Trump is criticized. He's the president, if he has no effect on the stock market, unemployment, consumer confidence numbers then I guess that he (and you) should stop taking credit when things are going good.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
It's not that he's criticized, it's that the OP MUST get a dig in that has nothing to do with the context of the conversation.
Also, I've gone over this stock market credit/blame issue numerous times in this thread. If he's going to take credit, then he also gets to take the blame. I'm on board with that. It's those who gave OBAMA credit during Trump's tenure, but now only want to give Trump the blame.
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Thunderlips
Footballguy
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Fair enough. Obama took an economy in recession and brought it back. Trump took a booming economy and kept it booming until this pandemic hit. Trump should not be blamed for the crash but he is the president and it is his job to find a way to avoid a total collapse and it will be his job to rebound quickly after the crisis has passed.
That's the way I see it anyway.
The Commish
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
bigbottom
Footballguy
Not sure this is the right thread for this, but Trump's narrative for reelection appears to now be limited to successfully guiding us through the coronavirus crisis. The stock market is now down from when he took office, the economy is in shambles for the foreseeable future, and unemployment will no doubt be climbing. These were his three greatest arguments for his reelection (aside from conservative judicial appointments). I think he realizes that this is the make or break test of his presidency. If he can't handle this crisis, what is his argument for reelection? I think that is part of the reason why his tone and focus has changed over the last few days. Whether that's the case or not, it is no doubt a welcome change.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Assuming things cleared up by then I’m sure he’ll just say he had the greatest economy in the history of the world until that “Chinese Virus” came in and ruined it all, but he’ll have it back to normal in January
Redwes25
Footballguy
Don't like this president but glad change of focus as well. A bit late to game in my mind but at least he is now in it and fully focussed.
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msommer
Footballguy
He keeps referring to it as the "Chinese Virus," showing not only a lack of trying to educate himself, but again trying to pin the blame for it on someone else.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
And if some of our Asian-American citizens get punched by panicked bigots, well, that's a small price to pay for the president escaping any ownership of blame.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Yup, but I am more focused on what he is doing to protect us and I hope the focus effort is in the right place now. We will of course see.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
I bought a bunch more today and getting close to all in.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I have always found this one strange. The president has about as much effect on this as the stock market. You need a judge to retire or die from the other party, and you have to have control of the presidency and senate. You need those 3 things to happen and then you can take your pick. Why is this considered a big accomplishment?
Indeed, we will. However, his efforts might be too little, too late. He's still deflecting blame, tweeting out lies, and is probably more concerned with the stock market than the rest of the country.
bigbottom
Footballguy
If you are a conservative and you want a conservative judiciary, you want to have a President who will appoint conservative judges and a Senate that will approve them. It is probably the area in which Trump has been the most effective. Oh, and the President has a ton of control over judicial appointments. After all, he's the one who appoints them.
From Wiki:
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GROOT
Footballguy
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Trump’s incompetence has *everything* to do with why we are here. It’s not a tangent, it’s the central feature of the story.
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