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Stock Market under Trump

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7 hours ago, BladeRunner said:

 "well, the market was going up under Obama".  Yeah, it was, but when Trump became POTUS it shot up 

Down over 20% in 2020.  Good thing we got a businessman in charge now.

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17 hours ago, GROOT said:

DOW eventually goes to 18500. Tell me why i'm wrong.

Not saying you’re wrong, but BA has been a huge drag on the Dow and if the government announces a targeted stimulus to airlines, it could rebound and bring the Dow with it. Also, if the virus works its way through the population quickly, the snapback in stocks could be epic. I don’t think we’ve hit bottom but that is one scenario where it has.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Down over 20% in 2020.  Good thing we got a businessman in charge now.

20% due to a worldwide pandemic, not Trump. 

But because HE'S President, ultimately he'll be associated with it.  However, if you gave Obama credit for its rise (instead of Trump - and I just know you did), then you're obligated to give Obama the blame for its fall.

Edited by BladeRunner
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23 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

20% due to a worldwide pandemic, not Trump. 

But because HE'S President, ultimately he'll be associated with it.  However, if you gave Obama credit for its rise (instead of Trump - and I just know you did), then you're obligated to give Obama the blame for its fall.

Chinese Pandemic - get your talking points straight.

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2 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Chinese Pandemic - get your talking points straight.

Those Chinese should think about building a wall.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Those Chinese should think about building a wall.

And it will be a GREAT wall!  You'll see!

Edited by BladeRunner
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You'll be shocked to know what I DIDN'T find going back through this thread.

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2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

You'll be shocked to know what I DIDN'T find going back through this thread.

Hillary's Emails?

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On 3/16/2020 at 6:01 PM, sho nuff said:

Well Friday he signed copies of the dow and claimed responsibility for how it went up.

 

And like it or not...he is responsible for the poor response by our government and his own rhetoric was awful until very recently.

That's not a reasonable answer

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41 minutes ago, GROOT said:

That's not a reasonable answer

Trump isn't exactly a reasonable man.

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56 minutes ago, GROOT said:

That's not a reasonable answer

Sure it is...and it happens to be true

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

Some numbers on unemployment claims: The all time weekly high, Seasonally Adjusted, was 695,000 in Oct 82. The high during the great recession was 665,000 in Mar 09. Based on state reports, those numbers will be obliterated in the report released next week (for this week).

 

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7 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

Some numbers on unemployment claims: The all time weekly high, Seasonally Adjusted, was 695,000 in Oct 82. The high during the great recession was 665,000 in Mar 09. Based on state reports, those numbers will be obliterated in the report released next week (for this week).

What is the point you are trying to make?

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17 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

What is the point you are trying to make?

Posting information?

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6 hours ago, BladeRunner said:

What is the point you are trying to make?

Seems to be something along the lines of "if the reports we are hearing here and there are true, unemployment numbers are going to be bad when they are released"

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Posted (edited)

I take Mnuchin's 20% unemployment comment as a way to pressure Congress in acting.  That's crazy levels, but I get it and why he would say that.  The CV fear is causing a lot of world economic fear.  And there seems to be a lot of uncertainty among economists too.    

Edited by beef

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20% is both crazy, and yet not as unrealistic as many might think when you consider the make-up of the work force - how many hourly workers working in retail, or food services, or any number of other businesses that are completely (or nearly) shut down during this episode.

Consumer confidence is also likely to be shattered, making a quick turnaround, even when the health issues go away, an iffy proposition.

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15 hours ago, BladeRunner said:

20% due to a worldwide pandemic, not Trump. 

But because HE'S President, ultimately he'll be associated with it.  However, if you gave Obama credit for its rise (instead of Trump - and I just know you did), then you're obligated to give Obama the blame for its fall.

You're in a car moving along at 70 mph and you think, "Wow, this engine is great!" Twenty miles later, you're still going at the same speed. Do you start to think "Wow, I'm doing much better now"? A few miles later, one of your tires blows out and you have to pull over. Do you say, "I guess that engine wasn't so great after all"?

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16 minutes ago, beef said:

I take Mnuchin's 20% unemployment comment as a way to pressure Congress in acting.  That's crazy levels, but I get it and why he would say that.  The CV fear is causing a lot of world economic fear.  And there seems to be a lot of uncertainty among economists too.    

 

6 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

20% is both crazy, and yet not as unrealistic as many might think when you consider the make-up of the work force - how many hourly workers working in retail, or food services, or any number of other businesses that are completely (or nearly) shut down during this episode.

Consumer confidence is also likely to be shattered, making a quick turnaround, even when the health issues go away, an iffy proposition.

I think it's pretty irresponsible to throw numbers like that out in our current state of uncertainty not because they are inaccurate, but because there is virtually ZERO goodwill between the economy and this administration.  Beef is probably correct that this is a way of attempting to get Congress to act.  It's an incredibly irresponsible way to act unless he follows it up with a "and here's why we believe this to be true" report.  That said, Sinn Fein is also correct that the number could very well be correct and not hyperbole.  Again, that's why we need to see what they are basing it on.  Ordinarily, we'd be able to generally trust what an administration is saying, but with this one, "show your work" is a required demand.

I will disagree with you a little bit Sinn Fein on your last statement.  In a confidence driven market, it can turn on a dime in either direction.  If lack of confidence still prevails after the issue goes away, it's not going to be because of lack of financial confidence.  It's going to be because this administration is going to be out and about shouting the all clear and people aren't going to trust them.  During that phase, there will be billions to be made for those ignoring the :hophead: and sticking with their financial instincts.

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I think the lack of confidence will be a self-feeding monster. 

This is going to be a hit for most people financially - so they will be financially insecure - relative to say, December.  Also, there will be a lot of people out of work - making everyone a little job insecure on top of that. Less money -> less incentive to spend -> harder for businesses to ramp back up -> harder to start hiring again -> people with less money ->

These factors - on top of the generally jitteriness of the health epidemic - I think will not allow confidence to turn on a dime.  It will be a slow slog where businesses will have to act first in terms of taking a leap of faith that consumers will follow - ramp up hiring, even in the face of low consumer demand.  We will see how many businesses are willing to take that leap of faith.

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9 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I will disagree with you a little bit Sinn Fein on your last statement.  In a confidence driven market, it can turn on a dime in either direction.  If lack of confidence still prevails after the issue goes away, it's not going to be because of lack of financial confidence.  It's going to be because this administration is going to be out and about shouting the all clear and people aren't going to trust them.  During that phase, there will be billions to be made for those ignoring the :hophead: and sticking with their financial instincts.

I guess I should have prefaced this with - the broader economy will suffer, not that people can't or won't make money in the stock market.

I am not anticipating a v-shaped recovery though.  If we get it, great - but this feels far more disruptive to the fundamentals of the economy to expect a quick fix.

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8 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I guess I should have prefaced this with - the broader economy will suffer, not that people can't or won't make money in the stock market.

I am not anticipating a v-shaped recovery though.  If we get it, great - but this feels far more disruptive to the fundamentals of the economy to expect a quick fix.

Sorry GB....I thought you were talking about the markets.  They will be "back" long before the whole economy is.  I agree with you looking from this other lens.  We'll be back to "but my 401k!!!!" shtick way sooner than I want to be.

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  17 hours ago, BladeRunner said:

20% due to a worldwide pandemic, not Trump. 

But because HE'S President, ultimately he'll be associated with it.  However, if you gave Obama credit for its rise (instead of Trump - and I just know you did), then you're obligated to give Obama the blame for its fall.

Obama has to own the stock performance during the time he was in office just like Trump has to own it during his presidency (but he won't and neither will you).

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Dow really seems to be testing the 19,827 mark - this was the level when Trump was inaugurated.  (It dipped a little on the following Monday.)

I wonder where it ends up, if that support does not hold.

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46 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Dow really seems to be testing the 19,827 mark - this was the level when Trump was inaugurated.  (It dipped a little on the following Monday.)

I wonder where it ends up, if that support does not hold.

Breaker currently tripped at 19,745.00. I wonder if he'll sign today's chart, too.

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Dow now less than when Trump took office.   The question is how much lower will it sink.  This sucks...:sadbanana:

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Hopefully, this is just a Trump-Presser dip, and the market rallies when he is done talking.

 

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18 hours ago, BladeRunner said:

20% due to a worldwide pandemic, not Trump. 

But because HE'S President, ultimately he'll be associated with it.  However, if you gave Obama credit for its rise (instead of Trump - and I just know you did), then you're obligated to give Obama the blame for its fall.

Unsure if Trump’s story is that the virus snuck up on him or whether he’s long known of the pandemic. Guess it depends on the day.  One incontrovertible fact is he failed in response, and we are all paying for it in health and jobs and pocketbooks.

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4 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Hopefully, this is just a Trump-Presser dip, and the market rallies when he is done talking.

 

Yeah it was crazy watching the DOW numbers on the graphic tumble as he was speaking

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My favorite part of the day is Mnuchin creating unnecessary panic while pontificating on 20% unemployment only to come back and say he will vow to not let his made up 20% unemployment happen.  Gold Jerry...Pure Gold!!!  :lol: 

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3 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

20% is both crazy, and yet not as unrealistic as many might think when you consider the make-up of the work force - how many hourly workers working in retail, or food services, or any number of other businesses that are completely (or nearly) shut down during this episode.

Consumer confidence is also likely to be shattered, making a quick turnaround, even when the health issues go away, an iffy proposition.

We need a "sadly I agree" emote on the right to click.  :(

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Posted (edited)

did anyone see ackmann sp? from pershing  on cnbc last hour?

calling for global 30 day shutdown. everyone go home.

says it's that or millions of deaths and collapse of global economy.

then says he's bullish if the global shutdown happens.

don't know how one can view it now, but bet someone does, and that a link would be very interesting to many.

he was remarkable. i'm understating.

(then again highlights will probably get played widely)

Edited by song
betterment
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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, cobalt_27 said:

Unsure if Trump’s story is that the virus snuck up on him or whether he’s long known of the pandemic. Guess it depends on the day.  One incontrovertible fact is he failed in response, and we are all paying for it in health and jobs and pocketbooks.

Yeah, I know "Orange Man Bad".  We've been hearing it for 3.5 years now and we're going to hear it for the next 4.5 years too.

Can you just address the context of the argument without having to complain about Trump?  Is that too much to ask?  Your tangent had ZERO to do with the context of the post.

Edited by BladeRunner

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34 minutes ago, cobalt_27 said:

Unsure if Trump’s story is that the virus snuck up on him or whether he’s long known of the pandemic. Guess it depends on the day.  One incontrovertible fact is he failed in response, and we are all paying for it in health and jobs and pocketbooks.

Listening to his presser a bit ago and the "reason" used on the complete reversal of narrative was because they were completely unaware of what they called the "surface component" (or something similar..sorry, I forget the exact wording) where they had no clue about how long it could survive on surfaces.  Not exactly sure what to do with that...it's quite remarkable.

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2 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

Yeah, I know "Orange Man Bad".  We've been hearing it for 3.5 years now and we're going to hear it for the next 4.5 years too.

Can you just address the context of the argument without having to complain about Trump?  Is that too much to ask?

I am not sure why you are so offended that Trump is criticized.  He's the president, if he has no effect on the stock market, unemployment, consumer confidence numbers then I guess that he (and you) should stop taking credit when things are going good. 

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

I am not sure why you are so offended that Trump is criticized.  He's the president, if he has no effect on the stock market, unemployment, consumer confidence numbers then I guess that he (and you) should stop taking credit when things are going good. 

It's not that he's criticized, it's that the OP MUST get a dig in that has nothing to do with the context of the conversation. 

Also, I've gone over this stock market credit/blame issue numerous times in this thread.  If he's going to take credit, then he also gets to take the blame.  I'm on board with that.  It's those who gave OBAMA credit during Trump's tenure, but now only want to give Trump the blame.

Edited by BladeRunner

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Just now, BladeRunner said:

It's not that he's criticized, it's that the OP MUST get a dig in that has nothing to do with the context of the conversation. 

Also, I've gone over this stock market credit/blame issue numerous times in this thread.  If he's going to take credit, then he also gets to take the blame.  I'm on board with that.  It's those who gave OBAMA credit but now only want to give Trump the blame.

Fair enough.   Obama took an economy in recession and brought it back.  Trump took a booming economy and kept it booming until this pandemic hit.  Trump should not be blamed for the crash but he is the president and it is his job to find a way to avoid a total collapse and it will be his job to rebound quickly after the crisis has passed.

That's the way I see it anyway.

 

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16 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

I am not sure why you are so offended that Trump is criticized.  He's the president, if he has no effect on the stock market, unemployment, consumer confidence numbers then I guess that he (and you) should stop taking credit when things are going good. 

 

This.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

It's not that he's criticized, it's that the OP MUST get a dig in that has nothing to do with the context of the conversation. 

Also, I've gone over this stock market credit/blame issue numerous times in this thread.  If he's going to take credit, then he also gets to take the blame.  I'm on board with that.  It's those who gave OBAMA credit during Trump's tenure, but now only want to give Trump the blame.

 

18 hours ago, The Commish said:

You'll be shocked to know what I DIDN'T find going back through this thread.

 

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JP Morgan predicting -14% GDP growth in Q2??????

GULP

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25 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

 -14%

:shock:

Trump is an attack dog, not a leader.  Fully exposed.

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34 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

JP Morgan predicting -14% GDP growth in Q2??????

GULP

I would say it is likely to be more.

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Not sure this is the right thread for this, but Trump's narrative for reelection appears to now be limited to successfully guiding us through the coronavirus crisis.  The stock market is now down from when he took office, the economy is in shambles for the foreseeable future, and unemployment will no doubt be climbing.  These were his three greatest arguments for his reelection (aside from conservative judicial appointments).  I think he realizes that this is the make or break test of his presidency.  If he can't handle this crisis, what is his argument for reelection?  I think that is part of the reason why his tone and focus has changed over the last few days.  Whether that's the case or not, it is no doubt a welcome change.

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6 minutes ago, bigbottom said:

Not sure this is the right thread for this, but Trump's narrative for reelection appears to now be limited to successfully guiding us through the coronavirus crisis.  The stock market is now down from when he took office, the economy is in shambles for the foreseeable future, and unemployment will no doubt be climbing.  These were his three greatest arguments for his reelection (aside from conservative judicial appointments).  I think he realizes that this is the make or break test of his presidency.  If he can't handle this crisis, what is his argument for reelection?  I think that is part of the reason why his tone and focus has changed over the last few days.  Whether that's the case or not, it is no doubt a welcome change.

Assuming things cleared up by then I’m sure he’ll just say he had the greatest economy in the history of the world until that “Chinese Virus” came in and ruined it all, but he’ll have it back to normal in January 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, bigbottom said:

Not sure this is the right thread for this, but Trump's narrative for reelection appears to now be limited to successfully guiding us through the coronavirus crisis.  The stock market is now down from when he took office, the economy is in shambles for the foreseeable future, and unemployment will no doubt be climbing.  These were his three greatest arguments for his reelection (aside from conservative judicial appointments).  I think he realizes that this is the make or break test of his presidency.  If he can't handle this crisis, what is his argument for reelection?  I think that is part of the reason why his tone and focus has changed over the last few days.  Whether that's the case or not, it is no doubt a welcome change.

Don't like this president but glad change of focus as well. A bit late to game in my mind but at least he is now in it and fully focussed.  

Edited by Redwes25

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10 minutes ago, bigbottom said:

what is his argument for reelection? 

Play the hits
- SC judges
- Wall
- This or that hoax, it's someone else's fault

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5 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Don't like this president but glad change of focus as well. A bit late to game in my mind but at least he is now in it and fully focussed.  

He keeps referring to it as the "Chinese Virus," showing not only a lack of trying to educate himself, but again trying to pin the blame for it on someone else.

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13 minutes ago, Kal El said:

He keeps referring to it as the "Chinese Virus," showing not only a lack of trying to educate himself, but again trying to pin the blame for it on someone else.

And if some of our Asian-American citizens get punched by panicked bigots, well, that's a small price to pay for the president escaping any ownership of blame.

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