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Stock Market under Trump

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Not sure if it's been discussed, and haven't seen much of this in the past (maybe just oblivious to it), but companies are giving everyone pay cuts in the name of reducing layoffs and not matching 401's, etc.

Anyone in a company doing this?

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32 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

My guess is the market will be okay by the time of the election but unemployment will be a whole lot higher than it was.   Its not just going to be small businesses that result in job loss.  Big companies that are able to navigate this will be laying off as well and once they cut they will be slow to rehire.  

I'm not as optimistic as some of these economic forecasts that have the US economy bouncing back quickly in Q3 and Q4, but, even if it does, I agree that unemployment will be pretty high later this year. Not sure what that means for 401K's though.

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15 hours ago, apalmer said:

Or maybe not.

It's pretty amazing how a 900 point loss barely raises an eyebrow. 

I am looking for that day, or period of time, hopefully in April, where the number of new cases begin to decline. I'm sure those will be strong days for the market, but not so sure we won't see ourselves having plenty of rough days in the coming weeks with more unemployement.

One question for all - will the new economic package result in those weekly unemployment numbers stabilizing or should we continue to see large numbers added? If so, why is that happening if this was one of the goals of the bill?

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16 hours ago, The Commish said:

glad you had a change of heart :thumbup: 

Oh, and I said nothing about the CV...was talking about the markets.  It's pretty simple, the markets went in the pooper because of the uncertainty of the CV, when the markets feel the CV is under control or beginning to be under control, they'll begin to bounce back.  See how Trump isn't part of either side of that equation?

Uncertainty is definitely driving the markets as the virus shut down the economy. 

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On 3/27/2020 at 9:47 AM, The Commish said:

:lmao:

He'll be as responsible for the "roaring again" as he was for them tanking in the first place.  You guys crack me up.  You're not even trying to hide it anymore.

Is it safe to assume that you blame Trump for the federal response for this, and thus, the uncertainty?

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22 minutes ago, cubd8 said:

Not sure if it's been discussed, and haven't seen much of this in the past (maybe just oblivious to it), but companies are giving everyone pay cuts in the name of reducing layoffs and not matching 401's, etc.

Anyone in a company doing this?

No, but I'm hearing from people that are having this happen.  Not sure how much of this is priced in to the current state of the market as the focus has been more on the unemployment number.  Feel like we are going to go a lot lower in the short term.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/24/2020 at 1:55 PM, GoBirds said:

Setting a great example in here.......guess it's ok for you to :fishing: as staff but if others do it they get suspended? Echo chamber at its best. 

What the hell?  There wasn't anybody, anybody cheering it on like he suggests. Ive been suspended for waaaaay less.  Unbelievable. 

Edited by tonydead
Took out the part about inmates running the asylum, because we arent supposed to make posts about other posters.
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16 hours ago, cubd8 said:

Is it safe to assume that you blame Trump for the federal response for this, and thus, the uncertainty?

Trump's largest contribution to uncertainty is his endless incoherent babble at the press conferences and his tweeting that is 180 degree opposite of what everyone else in the world is seeing with their own eyes.  It leaves the markets thinking "WTF is this guy looking at?" and instills virtually zero confidence which then leads the markets to be unsure of where this ship is headed.

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Trump extending social distancing having a very positive effect on the markets today.  Up 500 lets keep it going!  Ways to go but we should be in good shape by June (fingers crossed)

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21 hours ago, The Commish said:

Trump's largest contribution to uncertainty is his endless incoherent babble at the press conferences and his tweeting that is 180 degree opposite of what everyone else in the world is seeing with their own eyes.  It leaves the markets thinking "WTF is this guy looking at?" and instills virtually zero confidence which then leads the markets to be unsure of where this ship is headed.

Crazy, isn’t it? The one thing Trump is supposed to be good at (business, the economy, markets, etc.) he’s actually so incompetent that he actually hurts us there too. 

This was always the risk. Lots of “Fiscal conservatives” were willing to ignore the naked emperor due to the promise of large tax cuts, assuming/hoping/praying that we wouldn’t encounter a significant crisis in which competence and leadership was essential. 

They screwed us.  

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Market up again, looks like it has confidence in Trump to get us through the crisis.

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8 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Market up again, looks like it has confidence in Trump to get us through the crisis.

So by that logic if the market is down it has lost confidence in Trump?   

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31 minutes ago, greenroom said:

So by that logic if the market is down it has lost confidence in Trump?   

He's a terrible fisherman.  Don't help him by jumping in the boat for him.

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has nothing to do with the billions they have pumped into the markets...

unemployment rate going to probably go up 10x...but at least rich people will be okay

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2 hours ago, Gopher State said:

Market up again, looks like it has confidence in Trump to get us through the crisis.

And just like that, the market is in the red.  Care to update your analysis?

Do you see how silly this is?  

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2 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

And just like that, the market is in the red.  Care to update your analysis?

Do you see how silly this is?  

Spit out the hook

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On 3/31/2020 at 11:27 AM, tommyGunZ said:

And just like that, the market is in the red.  Care to update your analysis?

Do you see how silly this is?  

He will disappear until it's back up and then claim Trump the king...it's a very familiar story for a lot of Trump supporters i know

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Getting close to going below 20,000 again.

....keep your fingers crossed, good luck!:lmao:

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2 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

....keep your fingers crossed, good luck!:lmao:

Why would I want that to happen?  You may be the biggest troll on here.

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The Fed with another strong move today to lessen the leverage requirements for large banks in order to spur lending.  They should also do similar on the liquidity front IMO.

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I am not sure what is more surprising to me this morning - the 6.6 million new unemployment claims, or that "experts" were expecting only 3.1 new claims.

 

It seems as though the "experts" are living under rocks - and not paying attention to the world around them.  6.6 is obviously a huge number, and it might have been a stretch to predict that level - but with increased stay at home orders, and widespread reports of people having difficulties getting through to file unemployment - the number had to be bigger than the 3.3 from the previous week.

Experts tend to be very slow to adapt to changing circumstances - things their models could not have anticipated.

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Cruise lines have to be toast. How are they ever going to survive this?

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2 minutes ago, GROOT said:

Cruise lines have to be toast. How are they ever going to survive this?

Foolish and massive bailouts despite them flying foreign flags to avoid taxes in the US.

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2 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

flying foreign flags to avoid taxes in the US.

Is that retribution?

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cruises and airlines i think are going to take a decade to come back to normal...if they ever do

the residual effect of all this is that i think alot of big companies are not going to come back to the staffing levels that they had pre-covid.  It's the perfect excuse to hoard more cash

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11 minutes ago, GROOT said:

Is that retribution?

Is what retribution?

You asked how they would survive...and massive bailouts seems the only way.

But should the taxpayer be bailing out industries that rely on shelters to avoid US taxes?

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The future of trade and work will be different.  I buying amazon, chewy, zoom, and Microsoft.  The will have handsome returns.

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People are lazy, cruise lines will be fine.

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Jo Ling Kent @jolingkent· 1h

Morgan Stanley now saying we'll see a "deeper drop into recession and slower climb out."

 

When I see stuff like this, I really question what they were thinking before this.

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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Jo Ling Kent @jolingkent· 1h

Morgan Stanley now saying we'll see a "deeper drop into recession and slower climb out."

 

When I see stuff like this, I really question what they were thinking before this.

I suspect they were thinking "the economy" is first/foremost in Donald's mind and he'd do the necessary to keep this viral problem from becoming an economic problem.  WIth the inaction and allowing states to do whatever they want, it's going to delay recovery and getting people back to work which is going to turn this into an economic problem.  It would have been painful for 6-8 weeks with everyone on the same page doing what they were supposed to.  Now, with the divisions and mixed messages it's going to be double that time if not more.

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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Jo Ling Kent @jolingkent· 1h

Morgan Stanley now saying we'll see a "deeper drop into recession and slower climb out."

 

When I see stuff like this, I really question what they were thinking before this.

Thinking that if they didn't slowly acclimate folks to the new situation, that there would be a collapse.

Or perhaps they were being measured in a time of huge uncertainty to ensure no Deus Ex Machina solution came forward.  Maybe seasonality would start to hold off infections, heat of summer, better treatments...

But as it becomes clear we're in this for the long haul and it is as bad as most everyone assumed, they are putting it out now.

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Gotta admit I'm a little tempted to play some FAS before today's CV presser.  All these bankers at the WH today, gotta be some good press coming.  

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On 4/7/2020 at 1:30 PM, beef said:

Gotta admit I'm a little tempted to play some FAS before today's CV presser.  All these bankers at the WH today, gotta be some good press coming.  

FAS up 25% since this post.  Add this to the long list of woulda, coulda, shoulda, but didn't. 

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On ‎4‎/‎7‎/‎2020 at 2:30 PM, beef said:

Gotta admit I'm a little tempted to play some FAS before today's CV presser.  All these bankers at the WH today, gotta be some good press coming.  

Market up huge, jobs up.     Looks like we have flattened the down curve and getting bullish again.   Hopefully this continues we need this good news right now. 

 

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Just now, Da Guru said:

Market up huge, jobs up.     Looks like we have flattened the down curve and getting bullish again.   Hopefully this continues we need this good news right now. 

 

Yes, a great day for our country. Coming back to life. 

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1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

Yes, a great day for our country. Coming back to life. 

Well not really, but hey I'm glad people are happy today.

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To me the fact that we have what, 40 million (?) unemployed while the stock market has seemingly already recovered is just further evidence of how messed up our economy is.

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MPR News

@MPRnews The Labor Department admitted that government household survey-takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million temporarily laid-off people as employed. The government doesn't correct its survey results for fear of the appearance of political manipulation.

Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1 percent in May. But the corrected April figure would have been more than than 19 percent, rather than 14.7 percent.

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By liking a few of the recent posts about this market rebound I don't mean for that to look selfish or come off as everything is back to normal for the economy.  Not the case at all, and I'm sorry if it does appear that way.  The forward thinking ways of the markets give me hope.  But yes, there is certainly still real economic and jobs concerns our country needs to continue to rebound from. 

 

 

  

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2 hours ago, shader said:

Well not really, but hey I'm glad people are happy today.

Gotta find the positive sometimes, enjoy your Friday fella. :hifive:

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3 hours ago, Da Guru said:

Market up huge, jobs up.     Looks like we have flattened the down curve and getting bullish again.   Hopefully this continues we need this good news right now. 

 

There should be no question.  This thing didn't hurt all the large financial sectors.  They are cruising along as they were before this.  They are pretty much unphased and that will reflect in the stock market.  Economy will be interesting to observe moving forward.  I just hope we are passed all the nonsense around how an individual is the be all end all of the market or how they are the sole reason it's tanking.  We are now in the confidence portion of economic recovery.  The more faith we have in the message, the faster things will get back to normal.  The slower obviously means we don't have faith in the message.  Let's see what happens.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Slapdash said:

MPR News

@MPRnews The Labor Department admitted that government household survey-takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million temporarily laid-off people as employed. The government doesn't correct its survey results for fear of the appearance of political manipulation.

Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1 percent in May. But the corrected April figure would have been more than than 19 percent, rather than 14.7 percent.

So...

1.) the correct numbers from May and April are 16.1% and "more than 19%", respectively

2.) they won't fix the error because fixing it might have the appearance of political manipulation

3.) IMO, mis-categorizing nearly FIVE MILLION laid off people as "employed" and, therefore, posting a lower-than-actual unemployment percentage already reeks of political manipulation. They should just correct the error. The more I think about it, I really want to know how this happened.

Edited by VandyMan
fixed typo
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Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Unemployment rate only dropped because more people are out of labor force & have stopped looking for work.Not a real recovery, phony numbers

11:58 AM · Sep 7, 2012

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13 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Unemployment rate only dropped because more people are out of labor force & have stopped looking for work.Not a real recovery, phony numbers

11:58 AM · Sep 7, 2012

It would appear you were rooting for a depression 

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47 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

It would appear you were rooting for a depression 

By posting Trump's own excuses when his predecessor had good numbers?

 

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36 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

By posting Trump's own excuses when his predecessor had good numbers?

Yeah that makes sense. :loco:

And who the hell would root for a depression? 

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+800. To the moon! now the Covid is over and people are coming back to work.  :thumbup:. Good times ahead.  

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1 hour ago, tonydead said:

+800. To the moon! now the Covid is over and people are coming back to work.  :thumbup:. Good times ahead.  

Covid is over?

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