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Breaking Down the Consensus Top Tier RBs for Redraft and Best Ball(PPR) (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

TripItUp

Footballguy
I would like to start a thread that is hyperfocused on the consensus top tier of RBs for Redraft and Best Ball PPR drafts.   I'll start with listing some pros and cons and we can take it from there.

1.  Saquon Barkley

Pros:  Talent, Improved Offensive Line

Cons:  Eli Manning and Overall Offensive Effectiveness

2.  Christian McCaffrey

Pros:  No threat to workload, healthier Cam?

Cons:  Healthy Cam?

3. Ezekiel Elliot

Pros:  Consistency

Cons:  Contract, Off the Field 

4.  Alvin Kamara

Pros:  Offense, No Ingram, Talent

Cons:  ??

 
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cloppbeast said:
I would include Bell and DJ in this tier. Also Gurley.
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Gurley has me highly worried given knee issues. There is clearly something wrong and even if he cruises into the season at unquestioned 100% health, I don't the team will give him the kind of workload that would put him in the #1 tier. 

I think @TripItUp has the right rankings for the top tier -- there are arguments that Kamara could be ranked ahead of Elliot from just the number of receptions alone, but I think they are interchangeable at that spot.

In PPR, would put DJ and Bell (in that order) in the next tier along with Melvin Gordon, James Conner, and Dalvin Cook (high on Cook given the Vikes' overall offseason improvements, esp on the line, although I think there is injury history risk with Cook that could drop him to next tier with guys like Chubb and Gurley, who I would put in this third tier).

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Gurley has me highly worried given knee issues. There is clearly something wrong and even if he cruises into the season at unquestioned 100% health, I don't the team will give him the kind of workload that would put him in the #1 tier. 

I think @TripItUp has the right rankings for the top tier -- there are arguments that Kamara could be ranked ahead of Elliot from just the number of receptions alone, but I think they are interchangeable at that spot.

In PPR, would put DJ and Bell (in that order) in the next tier along with Melvin Gordon, James Conner, and Dalvin Cook (high on Cook given the Vikes' overall offseason improvements, esp on the line, although I think there is injury history risk with Cook that could drop him to next tier with guys like Chubb and Gurley, who I would put in this third tier).
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These 4 are easily the consensus top 4...there really isn't a debate at this point.

 
I think Kamara is going to be the fantasy regular season MVP (based on his first four games without Ingram last year) but his playoff schedule is pretty tough.  Would be looking to sell before the deadline next year in redraft- should have zero problem doing so.  Monster MONSTER year incoming.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Gurley has me highly worried given knee issues. There is clearly something wrong and even if he cruises into the season at unquestioned 100% health, I don't the team will give him the kind of workload that would put him in the #1 tier. 

I think @TripItUp has the right rankings for the top tier -- there are arguments that Kamara could be ranked ahead of Elliot from just the number of receptions alone, but I think they are interchangeable at that spot.

In PPR, would put DJ and Bell (in that order) in the next tier along with Melvin Gordon, James Conner, and Dalvin Cook (high on Cook given the Vikes' overall offseason improvements, esp on the line, although I think there is injury history risk with Cook that could drop him to next tier with guys like Chubb and Gurley, who I would put in this third tier).
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Mixon would like to have a word with you as the only guy of the 2nd and 3rd tier who could break into the first come next year.

 
I'd have Elliott over McCaffrey but agree this is Tier 1. 

A con for Kamara, could be he simply isn't needed to take on a bigger role. What if Murray can fill Ingram's shoes? What if the passing game is used more often in the red zone? What if the defense plays well enough to lower the need for points? These aren't unlikely outcomes in my opinion.

I would vote strongly against David Johnson in tier 1, and probably wouldn't have him in tier 2 either. I think its very fair to question if David Johnson is a great RB. He had 1 monster year, but he saw 120 targets(many downfield) that year, and led the league in TD's, while being 2nd in redzone carries. None of those things are likely ever happening again. He's been an average runner his entire career, even his best year. He's a career 4.1 ypc runner, and is 2 coaching staffs removed from his best work. I think its fair to question whether he's a top-10 RB. I've got him RB9, and I don't love it, and would probably take another position if he's my top rated guy. He's getting way too big of a pass for last year in my opinion. I actually think there is a decent chance, based on his contract and performance, that he's potentially in his last year as a Cardinal.

 
TripItUp said:
These 4 are easily the consensus top 4...there really isn't a debate at this point.
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Is this aimed at my comments? I absolutely agree. Seemed at least one other thought that other backs deserve to be in that top tier, which is what I was responding to.

My listing of other tiers is a little divergent from your stated purpose of wanting the thread hyperfocused on the Top 4, I admit. But that's where I took it.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Is this aimed at my comments? I absolutely agree. Seemed at least one other thought that other backs deserve to be in that top tier, which is what I was responding to.

My listing of other tiers is a little divergent from your stated purpose of wanting the thread hyperfocused on the Top 4, I admit. But that's where I took it.
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Aimed at my comment. But trip says theres no debating it, so left it at that.

 
cloppbeast said:
Aimed at my comment. But trip says theres no debating it, so left it at that.
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Well, there is always turnover in the top 5 every year. I don't have the percentage of that churn at my fingertips, but it does bring out an interesting question in how we draft more based on last year's results than accounting for this churn.

While many (including me) see the consensus top 4 being Barkley, Zeke, McCaffrey, Kamala, reality is that by the end of the season, there may be as much (or potentially more) of a chance that a guy like Bell or DJ (or both) end up in Top 4.  

So your opinion is just as valid.

 
cloppbeast said:
Aimed at my comment. But trip says theres no debating it, so left it at that.
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To be clear.  The consensus top 4 are these players.  

One can certainly debate that those aren't THEIR top 4, but there is no debate that these 4 are the CONSENSUS top 4.  

I intended for this thread to be a conversation about the CONSNESUS top 4...but here we are.

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
While many (including me) see the consensus top 4 being Barkley, Zeke, McCaffrey, Kamala, reality is that by the end of the season, there may be as much (or potentially more) of a chance that a guy like Bell or DJ (or both) end up in Top 4.  
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One does not see the consensus one way or the other...the consensus is what the consensus is, regardless of an individuals rankings...including my own rankings  of course.

So if I have David Johnson ranked 3rd...that doesn't change the fantasy community's consensus that he is not a top 4 consensus RB.

 
I've done about a dozen bestballs so far and two FBG redrafts. The top 4 has gone like that in every single one. FBG is TE premium so Kelce goes 1.05 in a lot of those. But otherwise yeah these top 4 are consensus. In May/June.

I like Barkley 1, and 2 thru 4 I am leaning CMC at 2 based largely on FF playoff schedule, which is a tenuous criteria at best. Some are taking CMC at 1. I don't think it is crazy. 

 
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TripItUp said:
Good point, fixed
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Well, since it's the top tier, not the top 4, I would argue for Bell and DJ being included. Talking about a couple rbs still in their prime who have each finished as the rb1 in the last 3 years. The drop off from the 4 you mentioned to DJ and Bell is not significant.

 
cloppbeast said:
Well, since it's the top tier, not the top 4, I would argue for Bell and DJ being included. Talking about a couple rbs still in their prime who have each finished as the rb1 in the last 3 years. The drop off from the 4 you mentioned to DJ and Bell is not significant.
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most disagree with you, hence the discussion  of the consensus top 4

 
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that outside of Zeke, Barkley, C. McCaffrey, there are about a dozen RBs who *COULD* take the #4 spot. no, Mixon is not one of them.Neither is Bell Or DJ. I'm not sure I trust Kamara to be a featured back like that. Johnson has to show me he isn't a one-hit wonder. Bell got his money now he's going to milk it for all it's worth.expect about 800 yards.lots of 'injuries' and missed games.

How about J. Jacobs? No competition for carries, a brutally good offensive line, easy schedule, etc. Gruden loves his RBs.

What about S Michel. Losing Gronk hurts.Edelman is 94 years old and due for another injury. a suspect WR corps ( I don't trust a rookie WR to be top 20 at his position so I do think NE runs even MORE in 2019) :yes:

How about Nick Chubb? R. Penny? L. Fournette ( bounce back?). Marlon Mack? Phillip Lindsay? more than half the top 10 players at RB , roughly 60%, will not be on that list the following season. there's always a changeover at the top. 

Disclaimer: T. Gurley's incredibly ridiculously bad end to the 2018 automatically DQ's him for any consideration for top RBs heading into the 2019 season. I wouldnt touch him at all.100% undraftable. you just dont know what you're getting.If he was available in the 15th round I select a kicker instead.lol

 
skinfanjon said:
I think Kamara is going to be the fantasy regular season MVP (based on his first four games without Ingram last year) but his playoff schedule is pretty tough.  Would be looking to sell before the deadline next year in redraft- should have zero problem doing so.  Monster MONSTER year incoming.
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He's going to have a monster (Monster) year, but you trade him at the deadline to avoid Indy and Tenn in the playoffs? Seems like over-thinking it in my opinion.  Even if they can't run the ball, Kamara will still catch quite a few passes and the Saints will still put up a decent amount of points. 

 
I think most agree CMC, Barkley, Kamara and Zeke are going to be your top tier backs. I have gotten a top four pick in two out of sixteen drafts so far (the 8-12 range seems to come up a lot), so I haven't had a shot at top tier in most drafts.

I have a lot of Gordon, Mixon, DJ on my rosters with my first pick. I've been trying to go RB/WR with my first two picks, unless Kelce falls to me in the second round, but I'm waiting on TE in non TE premium scoring formats. Too much value later in the draft on TE no need to spend a high pick on TE.

IMO there is some great value in late round 2 and 3 for RB and WR. Freeman, Chubb (although he may get you to the playoffs he may be useless in the playoffs with Hunt's return), Aaron Jones, and Sony Michel have potential to be top 12 RBs.

Some later round shots in the dark that may pan out, I'm getting RoJo, Ryquell Armstead, Ito Smith, Chase Edmonds types. Also Mattison. I think Darrell Henderson is being taken way too early and I'll take Malcolm Brown in the last round.

 
I don't like Zeke's week 14 matchup at Chicago.  

That is pushing me to this ranking in PPRs

Saquon

McCaffrey

Zeke

Kamara

 
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I think those are the top tier of running backs, but what's the harm in debating whether or not more than 4 should be included in that tier?  Preseason and training camps may see some from the next tier down receive enough hype to move up.  We have questions about Cleveland's offense and whether they will step it up enough to possibly consider Chubb in that tier.  How about Arizona with that scheme?  I'm all for a dynamic list for tier one RB's and willing to entertain the idea that I may expand that top tier as we approach the kickoff of the season.

 
6 weeks later, the consensus top 4 remains, and many would say they have distanced themselves from the next pack of RB's.  So, I will do what @TripItUp wanted all along, instead of torturing him like so many others :)

1A - Saquon Barkley - threat for near 400 touches, of the other 3, only Zeke can compete with that

1B - Ezekiel Elliott - volume is guaranteed, final standing will be determined by who gets more TD's

3A - CMC - can he be used any more than last year?

3B - Alvin Kamara - lowest volume of the top 4, he would need to outdistance all others in TD's to finish on top

 
TheWinz said:
6 weeks later, the consensus top 4 remains, and many would say they have distanced themselves from the next pack of RB's.  So, I will do what @TripItUp wanted all along, instead of torturing him like so many others :)

1A - Saquon Barkley - threat for near 400 touches, of the other 3, only Zeke can compete with that

1B - Ezekiel Elliott - volume is guaranteed, final standing will be determined by who gets more TD's

3A - CMC - can he be used any more than last year?

3B - Alvin Kamara - lowest volume of the top 4, he would need to outdistance all others in TD's to finish on top
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My order is the same, but I would use 1, 2A, 2B, and 4.

 
travdogg said:
I'd have Elliott over McCaffrey but agree this is Tier 1. 

A con for Kamara, could be he simply isn't needed to take on a bigger role. What if Murray can fill Ingram's shoes? What if the passing game is used more often in the red zone? What if the defense plays well enough to lower the need for points? These aren't unlikely outcomes in my opinion.

I would vote strongly against David Johnson in tier 1, and probably wouldn't have him in tier 2 either. I think its very fair to question if David Johnson is a great RB. He had 1 monster year, but he saw 120 targets(many downfield) that year, and led the league in TD's, while being 2nd in redzone carries. None of those things are likely ever happening again. He's been an average runner his entire career, even his best year. He's a career 4.1 ypc runner, and is 2 coaching staffs removed from his best work. I think its fair to question whether he's a top-10 RB. I've got him RB9, and I don't love it, and would probably take another position if he's my top rated guy. He's getting way too big of a pass for last year in my opinion. I actually think there is a decent chance, based on his contract and performance, that he's potentially in his last year as a Cardinal.
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DJ did not have a bad year last year when all said in done.  He was a RB1 in almost all formats around the 10-12 spot for RB's.  That is a quality year......not to the point he as the #1 overall guy like two years before but he was not bad and there is no reason to give him a "pass".  He was a solid RB1 last year only he didn't live up to the super hype he generator from his pre injury year performance. 

 
DJ has the lowest floor which is why he's not considered by most to be in this elite tier.  But certainly I understand the argument that he should be included based on ceiling.

 
TripItUp said:
DJ has the lowest floor which is why he's not considered by most to be in this elite tier.  But certainly I understand the argument that he should be included based on ceiling.
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I would say last year was his floor.  He was on a terrible offensive team with bad QB play that really couldn't get much worse.  Last year DJ finished as an RB1 in the 10-12 range for almost all scoring formats.  I would say that is a pretty high floor. 

 
TheWinz said:
My main league offers a bye in week 14 to the top 2 teams, but even so, I wouldn't change my rankings based on 1 game.
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Well, it's his toughest matchup of the year on paper and week 14 is a playoff week in most leagues. 

I use these types of factors as tiebreakers when it comes to making player selections in redrafts.

 
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TripItUp said:
Well, it's his toughest matchup of the year on paper and week 14 is a playoff week in most leagues. 

I use these types of factors as tiebreakers when it comes to making player selections in redrafts.
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Agreed, but I have him firmly entrenched as my #2 behind Saquon and ahead of CMC/Kamara.  I actually have him closer to Saquon than the other two, so his week 14 bye just solidifies my choice of Saquon as the top dog.

 
Gally said:
DJ did not have a bad year last year when all said in done.  He was a RB1 in almost all formats around the 10-12 spot for RB's.  That is a quality year......not to the point he as the #1 overall guy like two years before but he was not bad and there is no reason to give him a "pass".  He was a solid RB1 last year only he didn't live up to the super hype he generator from his pre injury year performance. 
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I'd disagree with that. Yes, he technically finished as a low-end RB1, but that is only because he played 16 games. He was really more of an RB2, and a TD dependent one at that. 

I'm not sure last year is his floor, I could certainly see fewer than 10 TD's this year, especially if Kyler Murray takes a lot of rushing scores which is certainly on the table. The o-line is still bad, and there is no reason to suspect his receiving to get back to 2016 levels, or even be better than last season. Murray is always looking downfield, and Kingsbury never had a RB do much in the passing game. 

I think there is a much better case for Johnson outside the top-10 than in the top-5. 

 
travdogg said:
I'd disagree with that. Yes, he technically finished as a low-end RB1, but that is only because he played 16 games. He was really more of an RB2, and a TD dependent one at that. 

I'm not sure last year is his floor, I could certainly see fewer than 10 TD's this year, especially if Kyler Murray takes a lot of rushing scores which is certainly on the table. The o-line is still bad, and there is no reason to suspect his receiving to get back to 2016 levels, or even be better than last season. Murray is always looking downfield, and Kingsbury never had a RB do much in the passing game. 

I think there is a much better case for Johnson outside the top-10 than in the top-5. 
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I disagree with your disagreement.  First, to say he was really a RB2 because he remained healthy makes no sense.  The fact is, he had 300+ touches and 10 TD's.  Only CMC, Saquon, and Gurley can say the same.  Second, I would certainly argue that 2018 was his floor.  How could it get any lower?  ARI finished dead last in both rushing and passing efficiency.  Their 902 offensive plays in 2018 was 31st, ahead of only MIA.  The only way he finishes outside the top 10 is injury, and besides his hand, he has been quite healthy.

Let me say this though - I am not projecting Kyler to have a 4000/30 season like some others in here, but he will take more focus off DJ than Rosen could.  I will be shocked if DJ's YPC does not get back into the 4's.  

 
travdogg said:
I'd disagree with that. Yes, he technically finished as a low-end RB1, but that is only because he played 16 games. He was really more of an RB2, and a TD dependent one at that. 

I'm not sure last year is his floor, I could certainly see fewer than 10 TD's this year, especially if Kyler Murray takes a lot of rushing scores which is certainly on the table. The o-line is still bad, and there is no reason to suspect his receiving to get back to 2016 levels, or even be better than last season. Murray is always looking downfield, and Kingsbury never had a RB do much in the passing game. 

I think there is a much better case for Johnson outside the top-10 than in the top-5. 
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Playing 16 games is part of the value of a player.  DJ did that on a terrible team.  Other than a fluke wrist injury he has been very healthy.  He is not injury prone with soft tissue injuries or have any chronic injuries (like Gurley).  Any improvement with QB play and his numbers are likely to improve.  DJ has always been a TD machine while healthy (even his rookie season when he was coming off the bench) so saying that was a fluke doesn't seem to fit.  I agree Murray may take some TD's away but I also think the TD opportunities will improve over last year so that becomes a bit of a wash. 

DJ is getting a bad wrap but when you really look at what he did last year it was impressive.  I don't see him being worse this year.  So a low end RB1/high end RB2 as a floor is something nice to have in an early round pick.  Now in regards to the original topic, he is not in the top tier but will be a bargain if you can get him in the 2nd round. 

 
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