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Daniel Simpkins

Nick Chubb Player Spotlight 2019

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For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a main feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence.

 So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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Nick Chubb, RB- Cleveland Browns

In typical stock PPR scoring, Nick Chubb finished 17th among all running backs and second among all rookie runners. In an offense that's ascending, can he take a leap into the top ten running backs this year? Where do you see him placing among his teammates in terms of receptions? How does adding Todd Monken as the Offensive Coordinator change things for Chubb, positively or negatively?

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My team name last year was "Can't Hyde my Chubb" - and I was right.  Once Hyde left, Chubb was RB7 (in my league) rest of season.  He has all the traits needed, in what should be a very high powered offense.  He wasn't much of a target or reception guy, so I don't see those numbers skyrocketing, but they should improve over a full 16 games (he only had 20 receptions last year).  Even 2 catches a game would be a 50% improvement. 

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I think we sse a tale of two halfs from Chubb.  As much as cle wants to downplay Hunts impact, he's too good a player to only be a COP back and as cle finds itself in the unfamiliar position of playing for the postseason they're going to want to manage chubbs touches for January.

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39 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

I think we sse a tale of two halfs from Chubb.  As much as cle wants to downplay Hunts impact, he's too good a player to only be a COP back and as cle finds itself in the unfamiliar position of playing for the postseason they're going to want to manage chubbs touches for January.

Hunt has an 8 game suspension, right?  Cle has a bye week 7, so Hunt came get on the field till week 10....right around trade deadline for most leagues.

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17 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Hunt has an 8 game suspension, right?  Cle has a bye week 7, so Hunt came get on the field till week 10....right around trade deadline for most leagues.

That's true.  I guess we'll have to see who gets injured.

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1 hour ago, matttyl said:

Hunt has an 8 game suspension, right?  Cle has a bye week 7, so Hunt came get on the field till week 10....right around trade deadline for most leagues.

Even if he stays, and maybe has a major impact to chubb, I can't see that happening until week 11-12.  That's still awesome value for chubb

Although I am firmly in the camp as long as chubb performs, hunt has no impact

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8 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

I think we sse a tale of two halfs from Chubb.  As much as cle wants to downplay Hunts impact, he's too good a player to only be a COP back and as cle finds itself in the unfamiliar position of playing for the postseason they're going to want to manage chubbs touches for January.

1. its cleveland they don tplay in january.

2. Hunt will not play a down in 2019 , if ever

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5 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

1. its cleveland they don tplay in january.

2. Hunt will not play a down in 2019 , if ever

Hue Jackson doesn't coach there no mo'

Hunt already has his suspension.  He'll play when he first can.

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I think that Chubb and Hunt are both among the top 10 best RBs in the NFL. When they're both active, then I expect this backfield to work a lot better for the Browns than for fantasy owners. My best guess for Chubb is low-end RB1 numbers while Hunt is out and low-end RB2 numbers once Hunt comes back, which is bad news for the fantasy playoffs.

The rare offense that can support 2 high-end fantasy RBs usually either runs a ton or throws a lot of passes to their RBs, and the Browns don't seem likely to do either of those.

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The addition of OBJ and emergence of Njoku will minimize the opposing defenses stacking the box like they did last year.  Just think what kind of #s Chubb could put up in that offense????   

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It's hard not to like Chubb at his current AAV/ADP. Some make a lot out of the Hunt signing, but big picture, it's not really significant. For me, it didn't change expectations because my expectation was always that Cleveland would bring in some additional talent. Hunt is a more talented RB than I expected them to bring in, but he's a PR nightmare, he's on a tiny contract, and he's suspended until week 10. It's a mixed bag, but it averages out, IMO.

My thoughts on Chubb:

  • I expect him to get 60%-70% of the snaps. In 2019, that's about the best you can hope for outside of a few, rare situations. Duke, Hunt, or someone else was always going to get a decent, but minority share of snaps.
  • Remember, this front office traded away Hyde to force the HC to give the keys to Chubb - that's a strong move. When an organization shows it believes in a player, I take note.
  • Chubb is underrated in the passing game. His hands weren't featured in college, but that doesn't mean they aren't good. He made some nice plays in the passing game as a rookie and in the second half of the season he was on a 16 game pace of 36 receptions. 
  • I believe Hunt's talent is that of an NFL starter, but Chubb's talent is special. Chubb earned the starting job last year, but he's got 8 games to further cement that job.

My thoughts on Hunt:

  • He has a cap hit of $975k. He's dirt cheap. Given that he's suspended for 8 games, he's even cheaper than the contract appears. Is this a fairly unique situation? Yes. Should we completely ignore the correlation between salary and playing time? No.
  • Also on the topic of his contract, it is extremely cuttable. If he has a minor slip up, he's gone. 
  • He looked great while playing in a great situation. Some will say disingenuous things like "he produced while playing with Alex Smith" but others will point out that Alex Smith had an extremely impressive career year in 2017, boasting the #1 QBR in the league and making the Chiefs a top 5 offense. Going through historical fantasy RB seasons, they are often accompanied by efficient, but not gaudy QB numbers. In 2018, Hunt put up similar stats to Damien Williams. I'm not saying Hunt is a JAG at all, but maybe we should wait to see him playing in a less-than-ideal situation before we act like he's one of the best in the NFL. Andy Reid has a penchant for making JAGs look good and making good RBs look great, while fantasy players have a tendency to conflate great fantasy stats with great talent. 
  • He's still a sub-par pass blocker and nowhere near the breakaway threat or goal line hammer that Chubb is. So I really don't know how many snaps he'll steal from Duke or Chubb. I think his true utility is as injury insurance for either of those two players.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Hunt is a more talented RB than I expected them to bring in, but he's a PR nightmare, he's on a tiny contract,

They already signed him, (and traded for Beckham). Doesn't seem like they care about the bad PR.

Not following how being cheaper means Cleveland will use him less. Do you drive your 1999 Camry to work, or your 2015 Shelby Mustang? Pretty sure the Browns stand to gain a 2nd rounder if another team signs him in 2020, so it's in their best interest to make him appealing.

Chubb should be money through week 10, but after such he offers risk for the fantasy playoffs; he could help a lot of teams earn a 1st round bye just to lose the consolation.

Edited by cloppbeast

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I think we used to include a projection in the spotlight, too. I don't put much value in projections since they don't capture things like risks, floors, and upsides, but they're kind of a fun exercise.

Assuming 16 games:
260 carries x 4.8 ypc = 1248 yards 9 TDs
40 receptions x 7.8 ypr = 312 yards 1 TD

Chubb could easily eclipse 5.0 ypc again, but that's difficult to project given their shaky OL and their lack of investment in it over the offseason. I was hoping to see them upgrade LT in particular. 

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

They already signed him, (and traded for Beckham) doesn't seem like they care about the bad PR.

Being cheaper does not mean Cleveland will use him less. Do you drive your 1999 Camry to work, or your 2015 Shelby Mustang? Pretty sure the Browns stand to gain a 2nd rounder if another team signs him in 2020, so it's in their best interest to make him appealing.

Chubb should be money through week 10, but after that has risk for the fantasy playoffs; he could help a lot of teams earn a 1st round bye just to lose the consolation.

That's a terrible analogy. If I'm just going for participation, I'd save the wear and tear on my more expensive car, but if I'm in a race that I'm trying to win, I'd go with the better car. The Browns are trying to win games, I believe. They aren't in the business of rehabbing Hunt's value.

But the issue with the PR is that if he has even a minor slip up, he's probably cut due to the optics of the situation. A player with more dead cap and/or no previous offenses has a better chance of sticking around. 

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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I think we used to include a projection in the spotlight, too. I don't put much value in projections since they don't capture things like risks, floors, and upsides, but they're kind of a fun exercise.

Assuming 16 games:
260 carries x 4.8 ypc = 1248 yards 9 TDs
40 receptions x 7.8 ypr = 312 yards 1 TD

Chubb could easily eclipse 5.0 ypc again, but that's difficult to project given their shaky OL and their lack of investment in it over the offseason. I was hoping to see them upgrade LT in particular. 

I believe this is fair, honestly. With these projections though, you shouldn't end up with him on many of your PPR redraft teams.

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

I believe this is fair, honestly. With these projections though, you shouldn't end up with him on many of your PPR redraft teams.

Like I said, projections don't really account for things like floor and ceiling. I think Chubb has a pretty safe floor and a very high ceiling. I don't really know what to expect in year two from Baker and/or Kitchens. How much will OBJ open things up? It's going to be very interesting to see how these things play out. If everything goes according to plan, Chubb could really benefit. If Baker has a sophomore slump, I think volume and talent will keep Chubb's fantasy stats respectable. I also think there's a good chance he sees an uptick in his targets in year 2. He showed a lot of promise in that phase of the game, so I think it is conservative to use last year's second half as a baseline for this year, but that is far from a certainty. 

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Some will say disingenuous things like "he produced while playing with Alex Smith" but others will point out that Alex Smith had an extremely impressive career year in 2017, boasting the #1 QBR in the league and making the Chiefs a top 5 offense. 

Speaking of being disingenuous - that was never my argument; I called the 2017 Chiefs a top 5 offense. I just picked apart your suggestion that the 2017 offense was on par with the 2018 version. 2018 was much better and defenses stacked the box much less frequently as a result. That Patrick Mahomes is a lot better QB than Alex Smith was the biggest driver of that. We can DM if we want to hash this out. I’m kind of sick of it, honestly, but don’t want to be misrepresented.

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

That's a terrible analogy. If I'm just going for participation, I'd save the wear and tear on my more expensive car, but if I'm in a race that I'm trying to win, I'd go with the better car. The Browns are trying to win games, I believe. They aren't in the business of rehabbing Hunt's value.

The Browns may or might not have interest in rehabbing Hunts' value. But they definitely stand to benefit from another team signing him next year; also in keeping their long term asset strong and healthy beyond this year. Yeah, their ultimate goal is to win games right now, specifically the playoffs for to win the SB. A healthy Chubb always helps, but especially when it counts - post season.

One has to admit there's a lot of different ways this could work out. You can paint at least one picture where Hunt cuts into the man's workload late in the season.

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

Speaking of being disingenuous - that was never my argument; I called the 2017 Chiefs a top 5 offense. I just picked apart your suggestion that the 2017 offense was on par with the 2018 version. 2018 was much better and defenses stacked the box much less frequently as a result. That Patrick Mahomes is a lot better QB than Alex Smith was the biggest driver of that. We can DM if we want to hash this out. I’m kind of sick of it, honestly, but don’t want to be misrepresented.

That was your direct quote. It was an obvious jab at Alex Smith (which would've been fair prior to 2017). You then said the offense was "still human" back then, which I get when compared to 2018, but it was an elite (top 5) offense that season - downplaying how great it was shows some bias. In a later post you revised your stance to say it was top 5 and tried to make it about Mahomes vs. Smith. My stance has always been that 2017 was a great situation for any RB, regardless if the offense managed to improve the next season (an immaterial fact). For the sake of comparing Williams to Hunt, they both played in 2018, so why do we care about 2017 for that? We can compare their 2018 stats to each other.

I'm not trying to be mean, but you blatantly misrepresented just about everything I said (via egregious paraphrasing) in your reply to barackdhouse in that thread, so I'm having a hard time feeling empathetic after directly quoting your words... from another thread... and leaving the author of those words anonymous. 

I'm sick of it, too, and also don't enjoy being misrepresented. 

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20 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

The Browns may or might not have interest in rehabbing Hunts' value. But they definitely stand to benefit from another team signing him next year; also in keeping their long term asset strong and healthy beyond this year. Yeah, their ultimate goal is to win games right now, specifically the playoffs for to win the SB. A healthy Chubb always helps, but especially when it counts - post season.

One has to admit there's a lot of different ways this could work out. You can paint at least one picture where Hunt cuts into the man's workload late in the season.

You're not wrong that they would stand to benefit if they put a 2nd round tender on him and someone bit. However, that's a long play on some slim odds. If teams are doubting his talent after 27 regular season games and 532 touches, you really think 8 games with the Browns in a RBBC will be enough to change their minds? I think most teams already have an opinion of him and none of them wanted to pay him more than the piddly 1-year deal the Browns gave him, so you really think anyone is going to give him a nice contract AND pay the Browns a second for him one year later? Seems far fetched to me, but maybe I'm crazy. If they put a second round tender on him, he's as good as signed with Cleveland for 2020, IMO.

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On ‎6‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 9:36 PM, Tanner9919 said:

2. Hunt will not play a down in 2019 , if ever

He's only suspended for 8 games - are you predicting something else happens?

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54 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

You're not wrong that they would stand to benefit if they put a 2nd round tender on him and someone bit. However, that's a long play on some slim odds. If teams are doubting his talent after 27 regular season games and 532 touches, you really think 8 games with the Browns in a RBBC will be enough to change their minds?

5 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Hunt is a more talented RB than I expected them to bring in, but he's a PR nightmare

As far as the NFL doubting Hunt's talent, I think you know he is on a deflated contract relative to his ability. As far as signing with a new team, next year he won't be a woman abuser anymore but a redeemed man needing a second chance. Maybe.

 

Anyhow, I'm not saying Hunt will steal some touches, but just counting a possibility. It's worth considering.

 

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

As far as the NFL doubting Hunt's talent, I think you know he is on a deflated contract relative to his ability. As far as signing with a new team, next year he won't be a woman abuser anymore but a redeemed man needing a second chance. Maybe.

Anyhow, I'm not saying Hunt will steal some touches, but just counting a possibility. It's worth considering.

Tell that to Ray Rice. ;)

But yeah, we all know why he's on a cheap contract. I'm just not sure one year means all will be forgiven. And more importantly, a second round pick could net you a very nice rookie RB in 2020 with a cheap 4-year contract. Chances are that Hunt's contract would cost a lot more than the rookie (Chubb was #35 overall and his contract is only $7.4M/4yrs). Is he worth that with all the baggage? Like I said, rehabbing Hunt's street value would be quite a long play for the Browns. 

My reasoning remains that someone not named Chubb was always going to get some snaps in this offense, so I wouldn't even consider it "stealing." The fact it will be Hunt doesn't change anything for me.

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What this board desperately needs is a filter that prevents any single poster from making more than 5 of the 50 posts that appear on each “page.”

Would cut down on the page after page of back-and-forth argument without progress that we see every now and then with cetain othewise worthwhile posters...

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Arodin said:

What this board desperately needs is a filter that prevents any single poster from making more than 5 of the 50 posts that appear on each “page.”

Would cut down on the page after page of back-and-forth argument without progress that we see every now and then with cetain othewise worthwhile posters...

Back and forth you say. What is this, some sort of message board?

Edited by cloppbeast
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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

That's not going to go over very well with the Hunt bag holders.

He forgot to specify that this is his opinion and not a 100% certainty. /s

Us Hunt “bag holders” have been trying to exit this discussion for days but it’s hard to do that when you keep coming back to take shots that misrepresent our basic positions.

For example, in the other Chubb thread you called me a Hunt “bag holder.” Why do you say that? Have I ever made a post about Hunt or his tape or his ability? Have I ever made a post about Chubb’s ability that you feel was unfair? I’ve done neither. The Hunt “bag holder” position from day 1 has only been that Hunt’s arrival in Cleveland is a negative factor in Chubb’s future outlook. It’s the most basic, common sense position ever and yet you keep raging against it like we're flat earthers.

It’s also silly to gloat over links to fantasy articles like they’re important data points.  That other Chubb thread is full of posts like “I think the Browns signed Hunt for reason X” or “I think the Browns plan for Chubb is Y.” Those posts are very low value because they’re off in the “feelings zone.” Talent evaluation and past volume are good tools to predict future fantasy scoring. Feelings and guesses about front office intentions are not.

The funny thing about this discussion is that we all probably agree on Chubb’s talent evaluation. His tape is fantastic. The core disagreement centers a little bit around Hunt’s talent evaluation and mostly around volume projections and what range of outcomes need to be considered. You called the Hunt signing "inconsequential." Is it fair to say that your position is that Hunt’s addition will not have a negative effect on Chubb’s fantasy output at the end of this season and also in future seasons? If so let’s spare everyone the repeated back and forth and revisit this conversation later when we have data. I believe you have a flawed process but I also believe that results matter, Tim Hardaway had an ugly jump shot but he still scored 15,000 points. If Hunt isn’t a factor this year and then goes on to play elsewhere or isn’t a factor again in 2020 I’m cool coming back in the threads and acknowledging that you nailed your prediction. Does that work for you?

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@electric Ape

First, I wasn't gloating about the article at all (because I agree with you that fantasy articles are not data points). I was having a laugh about how you flipped out that I didn't specifically point out that my obvious opinion was in fact my opinion and not truly a 100% certain future outcome. It was funny because the author did the same thing... probably because most people realize that obvious opinions don't need a disclaimer citing they are opinions. It was this kind of bizarre attack that made me think you were emotionally invested in Hunt's success.

58 minutes ago, electric Ape said:

Is it fair to say that your position is that Hunt’s addition will not have a negative effect on Chubb’s fantasy output at the end of this season and also in future seasons?

Here is the point that has evaded you each time I've tried to explain it. I'll try once more, so bear with me. If I had expected Cleveland to roll with just Chubb and Duke all season long, yes, Hunt's signing would've negatively impacted my expectations. However, I always expected them to bring in additional talent. I honestly would've been shocked if they didn't and I would've had to adjust my expectations upward if that was the case. But because I was anticipating them bringing additional talent this didn't change things for me. As I tried to explain, Hunt's signing was a mixed bag. Higher talent than expected, lower contract, lower availability, and higher cut risk. Average it out and it's a wash to me. :shrug: 

You call that a flawed process, but you're the one who seems to have not anticipated Cleveland filling out their depth chart. One might say that expecting them to do so would be... "the most basic, common sense position ever." ;)

Anyway, have a good weekend. I'm out and I almost never check the forum unless I'm at work.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

@electric Ape

Anyway, have a good weekend. I'm out and I almost never check the forum unless I'm at work.

That’s fair.

For the record, I’ve understood your position that you always expected Cleveland to bring in another back. It just seemed weird that you wouldn’t adjust expectations even a little when they brought in a back like Hunt. It’s very unusual to have a young pro bowl RB who has led the NFL in rushing step in as a backup. I can’t imagine a model that wouldn’t change when such an unusual and unpredictable signing like that happens but we don’t need to keep going back and forth on that.

Also, I never meant to suggest that you have to qualify your statements or projections as opinions. That said, there is a big difference between making a projection and revealing the process by which you reached that projection. Earlier you projected Chubb to have ~1500 yards and 10 TDs which seems totally reasonable. My objection was to your process, or at least the portions of it you shared with us because it seemed like you were projecting Chubb’s most likely volume level (65%) and then making statements based on only that one potential scenario. Typically if you want to make statements about the effect of a variable (like Hunt’s signing) you assess its impact across the whole range of potential outcomes, not just the one you see as most probable. If Chubb’s backup this year is a capable but average secondary back like CJ Anderson there are less scenarios that threaten Chubb’s value than when Hunt singed. I think even you would agree that if Hunt keeps his nose clean (far from a certainty) and hits the field week 10 the chances of “bad” scenarios like him achieving close to a 50/50 split with Chubb are higher than if the secondary back is CJ Anderson. And that is why I don’t think you can call Hunt’s signing “inconsequential.”

Anyway, have a good weekend. And honestly I’ll be very happy if your Chubb predictions come true because as of now I have shares of Chubb and none of Hunt

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Posted (edited)

I really like Chubb this year.  He looked like a different guy last year compared to the year before at Georgia when the knee injury was still an issue.  I feel like he's one of those guys where people project him safely as a low RB1 or high RB2 based on projecting out from last year's numbers but when the games get going he just blows up and enters that elite territory. 

He's obviously at a disadvantage with regards to receptions from a PPR standpoint but I think his TD upside is high on that offense, so if he can settle in around 40 catches that will be enough.

I would be comfortable with him as my RB1 entering next year.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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He didn't really get major touches until week 7.  If you take away his first 6 weeks, he had 823 yards.  Extrapolating that over 16 games comes out to 1317.  I realize it's never that straight forward or simple, but I like to have an idea of what people would have done in their most ideal scenario.  

He had 192 rushes, 176 in the last 10 games--which extrapolates to 282 rushes in a full season.  Perhaps they're able to sustain more drives with OBJ in the mix.  Surely the defenses they face have to respect the passing game a lot more this year.  Logically, he could be in for me.  

Then enter the Hunt factor.  You get a guy that talented, you put him on the field.  You don't grind Chubb into the ground when you have an equally talented back.  I don't think it's crazy to expect 7-8 touches a game.  But a lot of that will come at the expense of Duke Johnson IMO.  Maybe you see Chubb lose 2-3 touches a game to Hunt and he gets 15 carries instead of 17-18.  

Receiving wise, he'll be somewhat limited by those around him.  After he took over as the starter, he got about 2 catches per game.  He made a few really impressive catches last year, I like him as a pass catcher.  That said, the addition of OBJ and Hunt, the ongoing presence of Duke Johnson, I think he's somewhat limited

Right now I think reasonably:

256 Rushes

1280 Yards

10 Rushing TD's

35 catches, 300 Rec Yards, 2 TD.

 

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On 6/13/2019 at 11:31 AM, FF Ninja said:

I think we used to include a projection in the spotlight, too. I don't put much value in projections since they don't capture things like risks, floors, and upsides, but they're kind of a fun exercise.

Assuming 16 games:
260 carries x 4.8 ypc = 1248 yards 9 TDs
40 receptions x 7.8 ypr = 312 yards 1 TD

Chubb could easily eclipse 5.0 ypc again, but that's difficult to project given their shaky OL and their lack of investment in it over the offseason. I was hoping to see them upgrade LT in particular. 

Projections can do this if you are using a projection range. The floor and ceilings get represented by this, it is just that most people will just list the median value of their projection for simplicity.

Risk can be a difficult thing to quantify, but generally risk factors are reflected in the projection. Either in number of games (injury risk) or touches (competition). Trying to account for risks of suspension or other acts of god pretty hard to do.

To give you an example just using your projection for Chubb above:

One factor would be the number of touches. You have 260 rushing attempts. For a floor perhaps this would be 220 rushing attempts and 20 receptions, and the ceiling would be 320 rushing attempts, then similarly with the receptions you could set that as a range of 20 to 60.

Another factor would be the ypc and ypr which changes the yardage generated with the touches. In your post you say Chubb could have over 5 ypc so that would be for your ceiling projection and a floor would be the minimum ypc you think Chubb will achieve.

Most people do not like projections like this based on my experience and would prefer the bottom line of the median projection. I don't think that means you can't project for these things though, I think most projections are capable of that, if they aren't doing it already.

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