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Which current RB.....,. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tex
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Maybe a list of the obvious ones could further this discussion.
I do think the 2020 draft is looking better than 2019 FWIW.
In no particular order RB I would consider giving a 1st round pick for
Barkley
CmC
Elliot
Kamara
David Johnson
LeVeon Bell
Todd Gurley
Dalvin Cook
Nick Chubb
Joe Mixon
After this it gets more sketchy for me and I would be looking at WR for that price before other RB.
I do think the 2020 draft is looking better than 2019 FWIW.
In no particular order RB I would consider giving a 1st round pick for
Barkley
CmC
Elliot
Kamara
David Johnson
LeVeon Bell
Todd Gurley
Dalvin Cook
Nick Chubb
Joe Mixon
After this it gets more sketchy for me and I would be looking at WR for that price before other RB.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Barkley, CMC, Elliot, and Kamara will all cost more than just a 2020, even if it's the gaurenteed 1st overall pick. I don't see any situation or team makeup where that isn't the case.
So the real question is what running backs are in that "sweet spot" where both sides would consider making the trade.
Bell, Gurley, djohnson, cook, all come with risk so I'd say the winning side would be the 1st, but it could get done.
Mixon, Gordon, and Chubb are the three I think are the "sweet spot" players.
So the real question is what running backs are in that "sweet spot" where both sides would consider making the trade.
Bell, Gurley, djohnson, cook, all come with risk so I'd say the winning side would be the 1st, but it could get done.
Mixon, Gordon, and Chubb are the three I think are the "sweet spot" players.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Sony Michel. Others have mentioned DJ, Mixon - each comes with a new coaching staff - not sure how it shakes out.
Bell will not be anywhere near the top 10 RBs in 2019 and beyond.just my opinion but he's the post\er boy for the guy who got paid and sat on his butt and did very little with the new team/new contract. Dalvin Cook?! can he play 16 games in a single season before we put him on any kind of 'must have' list ,please? I don't trust Todd Gurley, seems like he's heading for a maddening start him and he flops, bench him and he goes for 200 yards and 3 TDs type of a season. just too many questions surrounding Gurley.
Someone in TB is going to be a very valuable RB under Arians.
Bell will not be anywhere near the top 10 RBs in 2019 and beyond.just my opinion but he's the post\er boy for the guy who got paid and sat on his butt and did very little with the new team/new contract. Dalvin Cook?! can he play 16 games in a single season before we put him on any kind of 'must have' list ,please? I don't trust Todd Gurley, seems like he's heading for a maddening start him and he flops, bench him and he goes for 200 yards and 3 TDs type of a season. just too many questions surrounding Gurley.
Someone in TB is going to be a very valuable RB under Arians.
tex
Footballguy
I agree that Barkley, CMC, Elliott, and Kamara would cost much more than 1 1st rounder. I had 1 owner turn down a 2020 1st for Bell. Another turned it down for Mixon but he is in a RB pinch. It seems like there are a lot of owners that don't realize yet how good this 2020 class is going to be.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I can't see Cook honestly. Or at least I wouldn't do it. Probably wouldn't do it for DJ either if I'm in rebuild or almost about to compete, definitely would if I'm a piece or 2 away though. Plus 1 more year of uninspiring numbers from Mixon then I could see him being in RB purgatory. Same goes for Bell if he isn't back to his "old self".
I haven't done any homework on the 2020 class other than what I've heard. I could see myself ranking a top 2020 RB in the top10 dynasty RB's pretty easily.
electric Ape
Footballguy
Mixon put up over 100 yards a game and 9 TDs last year playing on a bad, injured team with virtually no other offensive threats to divert defensive attention. To me his play and his tape were inspiring as hell. After an effort like that why would you expect an uninspiring season this year?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I understand. I didnt list Conner but I could see him too.
It depends a lot on how the rest of your team is positioned of course.
RB careers are short so I try to not sacrifice future picks unless I think the move can push my team over the top this year. Kind of why I mentioned looking at WR instead.
Cook has to stay healthy but if he does monster year ahead.
tex
Footballguy
Yea, my RB's are Howard, Ronald Jones, and Lamar Miller, so not exactly stellar and we start 2. But I do have 4 2020 1sts. So I just need to decide if I can win this year with another RB or just let it play out and see what happens. OBJ, Tyler Boyd, and Marvin Jones at WR along with some WR 3's and 4's who could do in a pinch, with Kelce at TE. It's an IDP league and I'm pretty solid there.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well if you have 4 2020 picks I would be more willing to part with one to improve the lineup now, even though based on the players you listed it doesn't seem that strong a roster to me. You could use upgrades at WR as well.
I think it's a good general question. Who is good enough to give up future firsts for?
bostonfred
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
4th in the NFL in rushing yards, tied with Todd Gurley in YPC, 14th among all offensive players in total yards (9th among RBs) in 14 games is uninspiring?
Sounds more like
to me
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Fwiw, I had offered Christian Kirk and my 1st, on a competitive (I think) team in superflex for Chubb. Dude didn't reply, counter, reject or accept for almost a week. It's entirely possible he was stuck in uncertainty about the offer, but usually a reply of some sort is nice. He replied fairly quickly on other offers and made a few.
None of those guys are getting moved for a single 1st in my league. I guess DJ would be the closest, but even he went for a couple 1sts right after last season ended.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well okay then how about the topic is about which players are worth more than a 1st round pick then?
I put forward some players I would trade a 1st round pick for with confidence. I haven't seen anyone else offering up a list of players who are worth a 1st round pick, just criticism that the players who have been listed are worth more than that.
Topic could be expanded to other positions as well.
I put forward some players I would trade a 1st round pick for with confidence. I haven't seen anyone else offering up a list of players who are worth a 1st round pick, just criticism that the players who have been listed are worth more than that.
Topic could be expanded to other positions as well.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
If you had a bad team (a high pick) I would make the trade (although I'd probably want something other than kirk).
-OZ-
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
If we did a startup today with 2020 firsts available in the draft, i think 1.1 would go somewhere around the mid second.
I think you could make a case that 1.1 is worth more than that in a projected strong class, considering what guys like Elliott and Barkley are now worth, but fournette was the consensus 1.1 in the draft where McCaffrey and kamara were taken, and Watkins was consensus 1.1 in the draft where Evans and obj were taken, so i'm not comfortable going much higher than early second.
1.2 should be strong, too, so probably somewhere in the late second early third, and 1.3 in the mid to late third. That's just a ballpark, but i think that's about where they would go.
An unknown early mid first would probably be worth a fourth round startup pick. Maybe a little more if it had a shot at 1.1.
So I would think the likely area that straight up trades for an early-mid first get done right now is third through sixth round startup value, depending on all the usual factors like who is contending and how the league usually values picks.
Technically that means i'd trade a first for anyone in rounds one or two, and I would trade anyone after round 6 for a first regardless of my immediate team needs.
As a sanity check - josh jacobs is consensus 1.1 or 1.2 this year. I think you could make a case for 1.1 this year being worth more than an early mid first next year, and i think you could make the opposite case too. So it seems fair. Jacobs currently has a fourth round startup adp.
Which means the list is probably somewhere after
Bell, dj, conner, chubb - unlikely to go for any single first but maybe someone just loves that 2020 class and thinks the pick is 1.1
And includes
Cook, Fournette, kerryon, Jacobs, Sony Michel, damien williams, marlon mack, derrick henry, aaron jones, devonta freeman and guice.
Of that group, id personally target cook, fournette, Williams, Jacobs, henry, freeman and guice.
Because all of these guys have some kind of warts, but i think cook could get injured again and still be the vikings rb1. They seem to be all in on him as a three down stud this year. Fournette is talented and Jacksonville should be better. They could cut ties with fournette and i think he'd still get a shot to start somewhere else. Damien williams isn't as safe, but he has such a high upside that it's worth it to a contender. Jacobs has a nice combination of youth, role safety and upside. Henry is a generational talent, imo, it's just a matter of whether they use him correctly. Freeman was a better fit with Shanahan but is still a good back and should be a starting rb for a couple more years. And Guice looks like he's the same caliber of player as the early mid first rbs in a strong class.
I don't love kerryon because of the committee usage but i do think he's pretty good. Sony makes me a little nervous for a damien Harris and james white committee. Mack could be good but if he isn't I think he is highly replaceable - even by ware and hines. And i'm not confident enough in Aaron Jones as a complete rb to give up that much for him. I might miss out on the upside but I want to see how a new coach uses these guys before i invest heavily.
A big part of that is risk of disaster. If mack or jones got bumped from their starting roles tomorrow i think they would be rb depth the rest of their careers. The same is true for damien williams. They all play for good offenses. But i see williams as having a higher upside due to volume (he's been used as a 3 down back by a coach who likes to use one back) and competition, while mack will certainly share receiving with hines and may find himself sharing carries with ware. Same goes for aaron jones, plus the coaching change.
So my answer is
Dalvin Cook
Fournette
Williams
Josh Jacobs
Derrick Henry
Devonta Freeman
Derrius Guice
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That is all pretty reasonable Fred.
I wouldnt want to give a 1st for those players besides Cook and Guice.
Conversely I wouldnt want to sell those players for less than a 1st.
Thank you for moving the discussion forward.
I wouldnt want to give a 1st for those players besides Cook and Guice.
Conversely I wouldnt want to sell those players for less than a 1st.
Thank you for moving the discussion forward.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Well yeah, I'd give it up, but I can't imagine anyone parting with those guys for it. I'd do:
Way more than one 2020 1st:
Saquon Barkley, NYG
Christian McCaffrey, CAR
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
Alvin Kamara, NOS
More than a 1st/1.01 lead pipe lock:
Joe Mixon, CIN
Nick Chubb, CLE
Any one early 1st:
Dalvin Cook, MIN
David Johnson, ARI
Le'Veon Bell, NYJ
Mid/late 1st:
Melvin Gordon, LAC
Todd Gurley, LAR
James Conner, PIT
Derrius Guice, WAS
Leonard Fournette, JAC
Josh Jacobs, OAK
Has to be known late/might need a kickback:
Kerryon Johnson, DET
Aaron Jones, GBP
Miles Sanders, PHI
Rashaad Penny, SEA
Zyphros
Footballguy
It's the Bengals still. You expect more out Andy Dalton and company? I don't. We might have seen Mixon's ceiling or his career year if that team is average all around again. It's possible. I love the talent he brings but the Bengals love to be average.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think the Bengsls have invested a lot in their offensive line recently and that's a positive for Mixon.
They have Andy Dalton. They need to take the game out of his hands. Volume for Mixon.
You could be right of course. The Bengsls do have two other very good RB as well.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Good rbs play on bad teams all the time. LaDainian Tomlinson was on terrible teams and rb1 for a number of years.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I’m just saying if Mixon goes under the radar a little again next year, then his value is hard to gauge. Some might pay the 1st we’re talking about, some probably wouldn’t. That’s depending on what he does this year though.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
And of course, the correct answer is marlon Mack.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
How is over 100 yards a game and 9tds "under the radar?" Chinny is bad but Mixon is a 2nd tier rb in my book.
Zyphros
Footballguy
For a RB with an all around skillset he's being underutilized. Finished as RB10 in FFPC leagues, on an offense that might improve and might also go into the dumpster. Just a possible outcome that's all I'm saying. But he was sneaky good rather than expected good last year. People were taking him as a RB2, not a RB1, he flew under the radar as a RB1, but that's hindsight bias.
Saying 100 yards a game is misleading though. He only had 4 games over 100 yards rushing and 2 of those games he had 26 and 28 touches on the ground, he damn well better go over 100. Still averaged a good amount of YPC but we all know how that's misleading.
But I assume you're including his pass catching in your 100 yards a game outlook, but for one of the better receiving RB's in the entire league, he doesn't exactly get that kind of workload. 55 total targets isn't a whole lot when his hands are really freaking good. It's not on the Barkley, Zeke, CMC workload paradigm. And if a RB isn't on that level, then their value usually is in some sort of flux.
