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TheWinz

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Someone has to jump the gun, right?  We all know ADP's will rise and fall over the next few months, and the FBG staff does a great job pricing players.  Here are a few of my targets at their current ADP's...

QB - Kirk Cousins (21) - I can pretty much guarantee he will be the most owned QB if his ADP stays below 20.  With the offensive weapons around him, his floor is like 4000/25.

RB - Aaron Jones (19) - Barring injury, pencil in 225+ touches and 10 TD's.  Even a blind man can see he is much better than Jamaal.

WR - Robby Anderson (30) - He is tailor-made for best-ball contests.  With Bell in at RB to keep defenses thinking, Robby will reap the rewards with a handful of "boom" games.

TE - Whoever ends up as the top dog in New England.  He will cost peanuts.  Stay tuned...

Chime in with your favorite bargain at each of the 4 positions.

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Got a list of the player prices? 

Kinda hard to chime in with my favorite bargains without the prices.

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Definitely jumping the gun a bit, but never too early to be developing a plan. All you mentioned have a great chance at bargains, but Mr. Dodds and company set prices later and some supposed bargains disappear with pricing.

love the idea of planning ahead though. Love the season long contest.

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I have a few golden picks as long as this is based off ADP. Made it to the final 100 last year which is pretty cool and my best finish. Largely thanks to meaningful discussion in these threads 

 

Heres hoping certain posters dont freak out again over people posting their rough draft teams 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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A lot of good cheap TE values. Right now I'm rolling with 5 of them, each at $7 (expected) or less, although that could easily change over the next 100 iterations of my roster. Actually, now that I look at it, maybe I should combine 2 of them into 1 Delanie Walker in order to fit another defense on my roster.

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7 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Someone has to jump the gun, right?  We all know ADP's will rise and fall over the next few months, and the FBG staff does a great job pricing players.  Here are a few of my targets at their current ADP's...

QB - Kirk Cousins (21) - I can pretty much guarantee he will be the most owned QB if his ADP stays below 20.  With the offensive weapons around him, his floor is like 4000/25.

RB - Aaron Jones (19) - Barring injury, pencil in 225+ touches and 10 TD's.  Even a blind man can see he is much better than Jamaal.

WR - Robby Anderson (30) - He is tailor-made for best-ball contests.  With Bell in at RB to keep defenses thinking, Robby will reap the rewards with a handful of "boom" games.

TE - Whoever ends up as the top dog in New England.  He will cost peanuts.  Stay tuned...

Chime in with your favorite bargain at each of the 4 positions.

I really like Aaron Jones but the coach has already announced he wanted a platoon...I have been playing FF for 30 years and I eventually learned that want should happen talent wise and what I want to happen doesn't always matter and sometimes what the coach says is straight forward....the former GB coach didn't see it and this coach is saying platoon also.....if Aaron jones was the main guy I would agree and say he's top 10 maybe even top 5 but I feel he will be overdrafted...just my opinion

 

 

 

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right now I've got 6 wrs at $6 or less. major bargains. my highest rb is $17. So far I have 26 players. Stacked!

Edited by Dr. Dan

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7 hours ago, KingPrawn said:

Got a list of the player prices? 

Kinda hard to chime in with my favorite bargains without the prices.

It's not hard to predict prices based on ADP.  For example, in 2017 the highest rated QB at the time the contest opened was Rodgers at $28.  In 2018, he was again the top QB, and he was $27.  The #4 QB's were $21, then $22.  The #8 thru #16 QB's for both years ranged from $16 to $12, then $16 to $11.  The #20 QB for the last 2 years has been $10, while the #24 QB has been $7.  Based on the consistency of pricing for the last few years, we only need to know a players ADP to figure out their price.  Yes, I know the ADP's will change as the season approaches, but based on Dodd's current ADP's, I am likely to spend right around $28 for 3 QB's.

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4 hours ago, Soaring Eagle said:

I really like Aaron Jones but the coach has already announced he wanted a platoon...I have been playing FF for 30 years and I eventually learned that want should happen talent wise and what I want to happen doesn't always matter and sometimes what the coach says is straight forward....the former GB coach didn't see it and this coach is saying platoon also.....if Aaron jones was the main guy I would agree and say he's top 10 maybe even top 5 but I feel he will be overdrafted...just my opinion

 

 

 

 

11 hours ago, TheWinz said:

RB - Aaron Jones (19) - Barring injury, pencil in 225+ touches and 10 TD's.  Even a blind man can see he is much better than Jamaal.

225 touches is putting him in a platoon - that's only 14 a game.  He hit or exceeded that mark for 7 straight weeks (and averaged 17 touches) from weeks 7 thru 13.  A decent offense can provide 400+ touches to RB's, so me saying 225+ is still giving Jamaal a decent workload.  If both Jones and Williams remain healthy, the split difference will only get bigger as the year goes on.

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2 hours ago, The Man With No Name said:

The now backup rb who's teams starter gets badly injured in week 3 preseason. 

Well, that never happens... may as well hope that a star RB sits out instead... wait...

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11 hours ago, TheWinz said:

 

225 touches is putting him in a platoon - that's only 14 a game.  He hit or exceeded that mark for 7 straight weeks (and averaged 17 touches) from weeks 7 thru 13.  A decent offense can provide 400+ touches to RB's, so me saying 225+ is still giving Jamaal a decent workload.  If both Jones and Williams remain healthy, the split difference will only get bigger as the year goes on.

I dont think that was a platoon during the stretch as Jamal Williams barely touched the ball those games

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3 hours ago, matuski said:

I don't understand this thread in June.

I don't understand this thread in August😫

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On 6/8/2019 at 7:37 PM, ZWK said:

A lot of good cheap TE values. Right now I'm rolling with 5 of them, each at $7 (expected) or less, although that could easily change over the next 100 iterations of my roster. Actually, now that I look at it, maybe I should combine 2 of them into 1 Delanie Walker in order to fit another defense on my roster.

One thing you are guaranteed every year with the subscriber contest - a tremendous bump in the amount of times “iterations” is used on the board. I’ll say it at least 20 times myself. 

PS - When does the contest usually roll out?

Edited by Elevencents

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5 hours ago, Elevencents said:

PS - When does the contest usually roll out?

Usually the first week of August, although they were about a week later last year.

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Player prices relative to ADP have been very consistent over the last few years.  Unless Mahomes arm falls off in the next 30 days, he will be the most expensive QB at either $27 or $28.  Barkley should be $37-$39, Hopkins right around $37, and Kelce at $27.  I doubt I will own any of them, but the most likely would be Kelce, although his bye is once again week 12.

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8 hours ago, Elevencents said:

 

PS - When does the contest usually roll out?

you dont see the values? 

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14 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Player prices relative to ADP have been very consistent over the last few years.  Unless Mahomes arm falls off in the next 30 days, he will be the most expensive QB at either $27 or $28.  Barkley should be $37-$39, Hopkins right around $37, and Kelce at $27.  I doubt I will own any of them, but the most likely would be Kelce, although his bye is once again week 12.

Kelce and Mahomes would require stealy resolve. But might be worthwhile.

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43 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Kelce and Mahomes would require stealy resolve. But might be worthwhile.

That combo is sure to be over 1/5 of your budget.  I would consider Kelce, but a $27/28 QB is a no-go for me.  Of the 734 who took Rodgers last year, only 2 made it to the top 250.  That was more than 6 times below the survival rate.  And both also owned Mahomes.  It wasn't because Aaron had a bad year - he finished as QB6.  The top priced QB's are just not cost effective, even if they have good seasons.  Now, if you think Mahomes will have 12 more TD's than the next closest competitor, like he did last year, then yes, he will be worth it.

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On 6/8/2019 at 7:24 PM, Dr. Dan said:

I have a few golden picks as long as this is based off ADP. Made it to the final 100 last year which is pretty cool and my best finish. Largely thanks to meaningful discussion in these threads 

 

Heres hoping certain posters dont freak out again over people posting their rough draft teams 

I know, right?  I would much rather have a regular poster win than some Wall Street accountant that doesn't even care about football.  I don't mind offering advice, especially when you notice a glaring mistake, like bye week conflicts.  If I had just listened to people in here more, I would've owned Mahomes.  Instead I chose Rivers, who was $2 more.  I got booted in week 11 when Mahomes blew up for nearly 60 points.  But, without the back and forth conversations we had, I probably wouldn't have made it even that far.

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I think posting rosters is essential to exactly why the subscriber contest thread exists. I know that @apalmerand @TheWinz helped me out last year by looking at my roster and telling me where I'd obviously spent too much and where my valuations were off by position. That was much appreciated.

I hope that thread is still available so that I can look at it and refresh my memory, and I hope to get similar advice this year from folks, this time before submission.

Edited by rockaction
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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I think posting rosters is essential to exactly why the subscriber contest thread exists. I know that @apalmerand @TheWinz helped me out last year by looking at my roster and telling me where I'd obviously spent too much and where my valuations were off by position. That was much appreciated.

I hope that thread is still available so that I can look at it and refresh my memory, and I hope to get similar advice this year from folks, this time before submission.

Link to last year's thread - https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/768212-2018-fbg-subscriber-contest/?tab=comments#comment-21218343

Link to last year's querier - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/contest_querier_form.php - fun to compare player prices from year to year

Link to last year's top 250 - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/week-16.php - congrats to all regulars who made it

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

That combo is sure to be over 1/5 of your budget.  I would consider Kelce, but a $27/28 QB is a no-go for me.  Of the 734 who took Rodgers last year, only 2 made it to the top 250.  That was more than 6 times below the survival rate.  And both also owned Mahomes.  It wasn't because Aaron had a bad year - he finished as QB6.  The top priced QB's are just not cost effective, even if they have good seasons.  Now, if you think Mahomes will have 12 more TD's than the next closest competitor, like he did last year, then yes, he will be worth it.

Sure.

Yet, at the end you want players who will be difference makers in this contest. Of course you need to make it, but if you're able to get past week 12 with those two and they go off at the end, that's a winning combination especially as few will have them.

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19 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Sure.

Yet, at the end you want players who will be difference makers in this contest. Of course you need to make it, but if you're able to get past week 12 with those two and they go off at the end, that's a winning combination especially as few will have them.

Unfortunately, it's just as likely that the difference maker will be someone cheaper that you least expect, like, I don't know...freaking Derrick Henry.

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

I know, right?  I would much rather have a regular poster win than some Wall Street accountant that doesn't even care about football.  I don't mind offering advice, especially when you notice a glaring mistake, like bye week conflicts.  If I had just listened to people in here more, I would've owned Mahomes.  Instead I chose Rivers, who was $2 more.  I got booted in week 11 when Mahomes blew up for nearly 60 points.  But, without the back and forth conversations we had, I probably wouldn't have made it even that far.

made it to the top 100. a lot was due to discussions here

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

made it to the top 100. a lot was due to discussions here

Do you remember exactly what place you came in?  I wanted to view your team

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Also - Even though I know it doesn't start until August - every time I see this thread my brain reads "bargains" as "begins" and I get a little excited... then I click and die a little inside.  

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1 hour ago, matuski said:

:bowtie:

185.. was a good run.  Then Connor and Aaron Jones got hurt.

 

Week 8 was your only scare, but Conner pulled you through.  Good luck this year once again.

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Just a question for the masses - does anyone know if Dodd's sets the prices based on his own projections, or maybe a consensus of the FBG experts, or maybe a consensus of multiple sites?  He has to use SOMETHING.

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Bye weeks are going to be interesting to manage around this year.

KC, LAC, ARI, and MIN all with the dreaded Week 12 bye.  That will be a lot of offensive firepower out that week.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Just a question for the masses - does anyone know if Dodd's sets the prices based on his own projections, or maybe a consensus of the FBG experts, or maybe a consensus of multiple sites?  He has to use SOMETHING.

Safe to say the exact methodology will remain a guarded secret, but at a minimum you have to assume that a weighting of public sentiment versus best available projection is part of the calculus.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Just a question for the masses - does anyone know if Dodd's sets the prices based on his own projections, or maybe a consensus of the FBG experts, or maybe a consensus of multiple sites?  He has to use SOMETHING.

I believe that bye weeks also play a role in the pricing structure, earlier bye weeks might be a little higher.

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3 hours ago, Stephen Holloway said:

I believe that bye weeks also play a role in the pricing structure, earlier bye weeks might be a little higher.

Iirc, last year at one point I had an entire roster with very late byes. Had to change it of course. 

But that's a reason I think kelce and Mahomes might actually be decent values. Still have to deal with spending big on those two positions if you do it.

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5 hours ago, Don Quixote said:

Bye weeks are going to be interesting to manage around this year.

KC, LAC, ARI, and MIN all with the dreaded Week 12 bye.  That will be a lot of offensive firepower out that week.

Just get immunity from week 11. Good to go.

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My lessons learned from last year...

- Don't be a total whimp about selecting late bye players if you believe in them.  I overthought and ended up selecting no KC or LAR players.  I simply crossed them all off my list.  Ironically, I got booted in week 11 when the KC/LAR players all went off Monday night.  Went to bed with like a 50 point cushion - woke up and I was under the cutoff.  It was brutal.  This year, the only players I will automatically cross off my list from the start are the most expensive QB's.  I will still give some weight to late byes, but I won't shy away from players I think are worth their price, even if they are expensive (i.e. Kelce).

- Bargain shopping for WR's is fine, but roster at least 1 or 2 proven studs.  Otherwise, you may make it far, but will lack the firepower at the end.  I just searched the top 50 finisher's from last year.  45 of the top 50 spent at least $22 on their top dog.  And of those 45, 33 spent at least $21 on their WR2.  I went deep and cheap, with 9 WR's and my WR1 was Marquise Goodwin at $13.  All my other WR's were under $10.  So, for my 11 week run, using 9 WR's, I had 99 possible scores.  I topped 20 points only 4 times.  By comparison, AB, Julio, and Tyreek did it 6 times by themselves, in the first 11 weeks.  Also in the first 11 weeks, DeAndre, OBJ, MT, Davante, Evans, and Diggs had 5.  And Adam Thielen did it 7 times in the first 8 weeks!  There was only 1 team in the top 50 that went as deep and cheap as me (and his 47 pts from Foles in week 16 certainly helped).

- A second set of eyes is useful, and continue monitoring players right up until the contest deadline.  I know numerous posters had their bye week conflicts pointed out to them by others in the Shark Pool, and I also know many didn't like people doing this.  To those people, I say sorry, but it's gonna continue.  As for the continual monitoring, some legitimate entries had injured players; they simply set their lineup early and never changed it, or forgot to.

- Shark Pool group think is very useful, but do your own research.  I missed out on this one with a few of my WR's.  I didn't do enough personal research on Keelan Cole and John Ross.  I chose them because of their buzz in contest thread.  Although I didn't fare any better when I did my own research, as I chose $4 Taywan Taylor thinking he was in store for a few great games.  I did my research and was proud to roster John Brown, but didn't account for Lamar coming in and draining all his value for the end of the contest.  I should've caught that, but he did start with 7 solid weeks.

These are just a few of my lessons learned.  What have you got?

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18 hours ago, TheWinz said:

My lessons learned from last year...

- Don't be a total whimp about selecting late bye players if you believe in them.  I overthought and ended up selecting no KC or LAR players.  I simply crossed them all off my list.  Ironically, I got booted in week 11 when the KC/LAR players all went off Monday night.  Went to bed with like a 50 point cushion - woke up and I was under the cutoff.  It was brutal.  This year, the only players I will automatically cross off my list from the start are the most expensive QB's.  I will still give some weight to late byes, but I won't shy away from players I think are worth their price, even if they are expensive (i.e. Kelce).

- Bargain shopping for WR's is fine, but roster at least 1 or 2 proven studs.  Otherwise, you may make it far, but will lack the firepower at the end.  I just searched the top 50 finisher's from last year.  45 of the top 50 spent at least $22 on their top dog.  And of those 45, 33 spent at least $21 on their WR2.  I went deep and cheap, with 9 WR's and my WR1 was Marquise Goodwin at $13.  All my other WR's were under $10.  So, for my 11 week run, using 9 WR's, I had 99 possible scores.  I topped 20 points only 4 times.  By comparison, AB, Julio, and Tyreek did it 6 times by themselves, in the first 11 weeks.  Also in the first 11 weeks, DeAndre, OBJ, MT, Davante, Evans, and Diggs had 5.  And Adam Thielen did it 7 times in the first 8 weeks!  There was only 1 team in the top 50 that went as deep and cheap as me (and his 47 pts from Foles in week 16 certainly helped).

- A second set of eyes is useful, and continue monitoring players right up until the contest deadline.  I know numerous posters had their bye week conflicts pointed out to them by others in the Shark Pool, and I also know many didn't like people doing this.  To those people, I say sorry, but it's gonna continue.  As for the continual monitoring, some legitimate entries had injured players; they simply set their lineup early and never changed it, or forgot to.

- Shark Pool group think is very useful, but do your own research.  I missed out on this one with a few of my WR's.  I didn't do enough personal research on Keelan Cole and John Ross.  I chose them because of their buzz in contest thread.  Although I didn't fare any better when I did my own research, as I chose $4 Taywan Taylor thinking he was in store for a few great games.  I did my research and was proud to roster John Brown, but didn't account for Lamar coming in and draining all his value for the end of the contest.  I should've caught that, but he did start with 7 solid weeks.

These are just a few of my lessons learned.  What have you got?

Pick players who won't be hurt.

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Should be about 3 weeks until the contest opens.  Which PIT WR is the current value pick - James Washington ($11), Donte Moncrief ($10), or Diontae Johnson ($3) or is it Vance McDonald ($13)?

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13 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Should be about 3 weeks until the contest opens.  Which PIT WR is the current value pick - James Washington ($11), Donte Moncrief ($10), or Diontae Johnson ($3) or is it Vance McDonald ($13)?

I must not have renewed at Super Platinum Elite Subscription level. Where are you seeing these numbers?

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7 hours ago, joey said:

I must not have renewed at Super Platinum Elite Subscription level. Where are you seeing these numbers?

My guesses, based on current ADP

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5 hours ago, TheWinz said:

My guesses, based on current ADP

Ah. Gotcha. 

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I can’t believe Tyreek Hill is only $18, surely they were anticipating 4-6 weeks. The late bye week 12 factors here IMO. 

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On 7/11/2019 at 1:33 PM, TheWinz said:

My lessons learned from last year...

- Don't be a total whimp about selecting late bye players if you believe in them.  I overthought and ended up selecting no KC or LAR players.  I simply crossed them all off my list.  Ironically, I got booted in week 11 when the KC/LAR players all went off Monday night.  Went to bed with like a 50 point cushion - woke up and I was under the cutoff.  It was brutal.  This year, the only players I will automatically cross off my list from the start are the most expensive QB's.  I will still give some weight to late byes, but I won't shy away from players I think are worth their price, even if they are expensive (i.e. Kelce).

- Bargain shopping for WR's is fine, but roster at least 1 or 2 proven studs.  Otherwise, you may make it far, but will lack the firepower at the end.  I just searched the top 50 finisher's from last year.  45 of the top 50 spent at least $22 on their top dog.  And of those 45, 33 spent at least $21 on their WR2.  I went deep and cheap, with 9 WR's and my WR1 was Marquise Goodwin at $13.  All my other WR's were under $10.  So, for my 11 week run, using 9 WR's, I had 99 possible scores.  I topped 20 points only 4 times.  By comparison, AB, Julio, and Tyreek did it 6 times by themselves, in the first 11 weeks.  Also in the first 11 weeks, DeAndre, OBJ, MT, Davante, Evans, and Diggs had 5.  And Adam Thielen did it 7 times in the first 8 weeks!  There was only 1 team in the top 50 that went as deep and cheap as me (and his 47 pts from Foles in week 16 certainly helped).

- A second set of eyes is useful, and continue monitoring players right up until the contest deadline.  I know numerous posters had their bye week conflicts pointed out to them by others in the Shark Pool, and I also know many didn't like people doing this.  To those people, I say sorry, but it's gonna continue.  As for the continual monitoring, some legitimate entries had injured players; they simply set their lineup early and never changed it, or forgot to.

- Shark Pool group think is very useful, but do your own research.  I missed out on this one with a few of my WR's.  I didn't do enough personal research on Keelan Cole and John Ross.  I chose them because of their buzz in contest thread.  Although I didn't fare any better when I did my own research, as I chose $4 Taywan Taylor thinking he was in store for a few great games.  I did my research and was proud to roster John Brown, but didn't account for Lamar coming in and draining all his value for the end of the contest.  I should've caught that, but he did start with 7 solid weeks.

These are just a few of my lessons learned.  What have you got?

Don't pile on the cheap guys. They're cheap for a reason. 

On 7/19/2019 at 10:01 AM, TheWinz said:

Should be about 3 weeks until the contest opens.  Which PIT WR is the current value pick - James Washington ($11), Donte Moncrief ($10), or Diontae Johnson ($3) or is it Vance McDonald ($13)?

If DJ is $3 I'm all over that. I've drafted him in almost every league. All dynasty so there's a clear difference, but dude is gonna be good. 

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Any thoughts on players you think you're taking already? (Guessing price and thinking they will be a value)

I'm probably locking in a QBBC of Mayfield and Dak. 

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12 hours ago, -OZ- said:

Any thoughts on players you think you're taking already? (Guessing price and thinking they will be a value)

I'm probably locking in a QBBC of Mayfield and Dak. 

MVS. 

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11 hours ago, -OZ- said:

Any thoughts on players you think you're taking already? (Guessing price and thinking they will be a value)

I'm probably locking in a QBBC of Mayfield and Dak. 

As for your QB duo, if they both stay around their current ADP's by the time Dodd's sets the pricing, Mayfield should be in the $21 range, and Dak will be in the $12-14 range.  My highest priced QB will likely be Winston, but only if he is there for $13 or less (it's gonna be close).  FYI - last year's winner had Ben ($14), Smith ($12), and Mahomes $11), and quite surprisingly, the runner up had Trubisky ($7), Dalton ($6), and Darnold ($3).

At RB, I will be looking at the prices for Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson, and also Latavius Murray.  At WR, I will be monitoring the fight for WR2 in PIT, and I think Devin Funchess will near 10 TD's.  I really dunno why, just a gut feeling.  At TE, Ian Thomas and Mark Andrews as later guys, to go along with a stud. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

MVS. 

meh. probably avoiding

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8 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

As for your QB duo, if they both stay around their current ADP's by the time Dodd's sets the pricing, Mayfield should be in the $21 range, and Dak will be in the $12-14 range.  My highest priced QB will likely be Winston, but only if he is there for $13 or less (it's gonna be close).  FYI - last year's winner had Ben ($14), Smith ($12), and Mahomes $11), and quite surprisingly, the runner up had Trubisky ($7), Dalton ($6), and Darnold ($3).

At RB, I will be looking at the prices for Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson, and also Latavius Murray.  At WR, I will be monitoring the fight for WR2 in PIT, and I think Devin Funchess will near 10 TD's.  I really dunno why, just a gut feeling.  At TE, Ian Thomas and Mark Andrews as later guys, to go along with a stud. 

 

we will have a lot of similarities

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