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TheWinz

Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest

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Don't you just love @jdkapow and his awesome notables?

Remember when you were choosing your team at the start of this contest?  You had an NFL schedule handy.  You were comparing bye weeks among players you liked, ensuring you were covered every week at every position.  You compared combinations of defenses, trying to find a few with killer matchups.  Some value players stood out, and you pounced; others were your sleeper picks that you kept to yourself.  You had all the angles covered, and just knew you were going far.  Then it all came crashing down.  Players got injured or underperformed, and you were gone, just like that.  Of course, this is not for those still alive, and we are pulling for you.  I know I spent many hours fine tuning my team before submitting, and was toast by week 7.

For all those who think there is a "right way" to build a roster, here are a few teams that buck the trend:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2019/101028.php - One of only 4 teams left with one QB, and the only one with just one K and one D (both of which had the same bye).  This guy went into week 8 knowing he was gonna take goose eggs at 2 positions, and decided it was a good idea to have his studliest player on a bye to boot.  Is he just plain crazy, or crazy like a fox?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2019/108797.php - We all know you need 7 weekly scores from the RB/WR/TE positions, but this team likes to live dangerously.  And just take a look at who saved his bacon 3 straight weeks while Mahomes got hurt, then sat 2 games.  It's magic, I tell ya.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2019/111274.php - How many WR's do you need to roster to feel safe?  This guy's idea of good roster construction is to carry twice as many defenses as WR's.

 

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7 hours ago, jdkapow said:

Awards and notable teams of the week.

Strongest Dead Team: A new leader here: Black Out (Entry 109376) is in 18th place overall with an average of 197.41. That and a couple bucks will get them a cup of coffee, though, since they’re no longer in contention.

Icarus Award: See the strongest dead team above. Black Out (Entry 109376). This team was in 7th place in the  entire contest, averaging 202.88 per week, only to see it all come crashing down this week. Jameis Winston, Dalvin Cook and Mark Andrews weren’t enough to save them. Just goes to show you, it could happen to any of us.

Would Coulda Shoulda Award: Entry 100736 is still the king of kicking himself. This team has averaged over 187 points from weeks 3-10, good for 133rd in the contest over that period. Alas, they were a zombie team that whole time after being eliminated in week 2.

 

Sometimes it is just better not to know... I am glad I am not identified on these "Awards"!  LOL 

 

Nice work @jdkapow

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8 hours ago, jdkapow said:

And now the players:

Eliminated Players: It’s getting brutal out there. Five more players gone: Devontae Booker, Lamar Miller, Tim Patrick, Tyrod Tayler and Wayne Gallman are kaput. Gallman actually put up 26.8 for you guys one week, and this is the thanks you show him? That makes 18 players who appear on no living rosters.

The Biggest Mistake: Saquon Barkley was owned on 947 teams, of which only 20 remain, for a 2.1% survival rate…and he has his bye next week. Yeah, that was a bad call, folks. The very worst non-zero survival percentage is now everybody’s best buddy, Antonio Brown. Of his original 162 owners, only one is still with us: that’s a 0.6% survival rate.

The Survivor: Oh no! Zach Zenner has been knocked off his lofty perch. One of his owners died last week, leaving him with only one of his four original owners among the living. That 25% survival rate is still good enough for 2nd in the entire contest. Your leader now is Dalvin Cook: 709 of his 2744 original owners are still around, for a 25.8% survival rate. The overall survival rate for the contest is down to 12.7%: Zenner and Cook are the only ones who’ve managed to double that to this point.

The Bargain: No change: among $4 non-kicker non-defense non-Zenner players, Daniel Jones (20.3%) and, weirdly, Jaron Brown (14.9%), have the highest survival rates.

The Parasite:  Ian Thomas, come on down! You are what this award is all about! You are the only player to score zero points and still have an above-average survival rate. Despite contributing nothing at all to your owners (less than nothing, really: you’ve failed to catch the two balls thrown your way) and costing $2 more than the minimum, you have a ridiculously high survival rate of 14.4%. No other non-contributor is above the overall survival rate of 12.7%; next-highest is Rob Gronkowski at 8.4%

The Martyr: Remember last week, when Christian McCaffrey had a below-average survival rate? Well, that’s over now: he’s back above water at 13.2%. But poor Aaron Rodgers, who’s scored more points than all but four other players, who’s scored for you every single week, who hasn’t even taken a week off like most of his lazy colleagues, is stuck with an awful 8.4% survival rate. In the non-QB category, DeAndre Hopkins has been consistently very good over the last several weeks, until last week’s bye of course, but his survival rate is a pathetic 6.4%.

Thanks for doing this. One of the beat reads on these boards each week

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12 hours ago, jdkapow said:

 

WRs: With the death of solgrun (Entry 106155) this week, Brute (Entry 110662) is now the only 12-WR team left standing.

 

I beg to differ sir, not sure where you got your info, but I scored 202 points this week and am EASILY still in contention!!!

 

SOLGRUN entry

 

That said, I HIGHLY anticipate being eliminated this week...FBG projections are showing me scoring only 137.25 this week...

Edited by Solomon Grundy

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12 hours ago, jdkapow said:

Just Skating By Award: We broke the 20 point barrier here. Skills Wills dominates this category. They have never cleared by better than 20.45 points; no other team is under 30! Skills Wills has cleared the cutoff by a total of 80.1 points over the 10 weeks of the contest; they’re the only team under 100. Keep bobbing and weaving, Skills Wills: I’m rooting for you!

My total isn't nearly this low, but I've survived 3 weeks by 1.50 (2), 2.80 (6) and 0.90 (7)

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2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I beg to differ sir, not sure where you got your info, but I scored 202 points this week and am EASILY still in contention!!!

 

SOLGRUN entry

 

That said, I HIGHLY anticipate being eliminated this week...FBG projections are showing me scoring only 137.25 this week...

Huh. You're right. Just checked my spreadsheet and you are absolutely still with us. Don't know what sort of brain fart I had last night. Sorry about that!

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2 hours ago, heckmanm said:

My total isn't nearly this low, but I've survived 3 weeks by 1.50 (2), 2.80 (6) and 0.90 (7)

Putting this in some perspective (by the way, you cleared by 3.4 in week 6), I sorted living teams by their closest calls:

There are 10 living teams who scored exactly at the cutoff one week. Nobody's done it twice. Two of them had another incredibly close call, clearing by 0.8 and 0.95 in their second-diciest weeks. Your 0.9 is tied for 145th-closest.

------------------------

There are a few teams who had two weeks where they cleared by less than 0.5:

Shakedog34 (Entry 106586): 0.10, 0.15 (wow!)

Entry 100527: 0.20, 0.35

MINNOWS (Entry 105720): 0.40, 0.40

Among second-tightest weeks, your 1.50 comes in 22nd (if that makes sense).

------------------------

Nobody has cleared by less than a point three times. The closest is bird (Entry 108906), who had weeks of 0.20, 0.70 and 1.45.

Your 3.40 is 10th.

------------------------

Two teams have had five weeks where they cleared by less than 4, the aforementioned Skills Wills and Entry 101650.

Nobody has had six weeks of clearing by less than 10.

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On 11/13/2019 at 12:34 AM, jdkapow said:

And now the players:

Eliminated Players: It’s getting brutal out there. Five more players gone: Devontae Booker, Lamar Miller, Tim Patrick, Tyrod Tayler and Wayne Gallman are kaput. Gallman actually put up 26.8 for you guys one week, and this is the thanks you show him? That makes 18 players who appear on no living rosters.

The Biggest Mistake: Saquon Barkley was owned on 947 teams, of which only 20 remain, for a 2.1% survival rate…and he has his bye next week. Yeah, that was a bad call, folks. The very worst non-zero survival percentage is now everybody’s best buddy, Antonio Brown. Of his original 162 owners, only one is still with us: that’s a 0.6% survival rate.

The Survivor: Oh no! Zach Zenner has been knocked off his lofty perch. One of his owners died last week, leaving him with only one of his four original owners among the living. That 25% survival rate is still good enough for 2nd in the entire contest. Your leader now is Dalvin Cook: 709 of his 2744 original owners are still around, for a 25.8% survival rate. The overall survival rate for the contest is down to 12.7%: Zenner and Cook are the only ones who’ve managed to double that to this point.

The Bargain: No change: among $4 non-kicker non-defense non-Zenner players, Daniel Jones (20.3%) and, weirdly, Jaron Brown (14.9%), have the highest survival rates.

The Parasite:  Ian Thomas, come on down! You are what this award is all about! You are the only player to score zero points and still have an above-average survival rate. Despite contributing nothing at all to your owners (less than nothing, really: you’ve failed to catch the two balls thrown your way) and costing $2 more than the minimum, you have a ridiculously high survival rate of 14.4%. No other non-contributor is above the overall survival rate of 12.7%; next-highest is Rob Gronkowski at 8.4%

The Martyr: Remember last week, when Christian McCaffrey had a below-average survival rate? Well, that’s over now: he’s back above water at 13.2%. But poor Aaron Rodgers, who’s scored more points than all but four other players, who’s scored for you every single week, who hasn’t even taken a week off like most of his lazy colleagues, is stuck with an awful 8.4% survival rate. In the non-QB category, DeAndre Hopkins has been consistently very good over the last several weeks, until last week’s bye of course, but his survival rate is a pathetic 6.4%.

So if my stud RBs are Barkley and McCaffrey, am I smart or dumb? Or is it lucky or unlucky?

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I might not even be playing best ball this week with my skill positions, I think I only have 2 RB, 2 WR, and 3 TE playing to cover the positions and flexes. 

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Pittsburgh @ Cleveland starts off week 11, and the cut goes down to 1000 teams.  SP regulars getting thin, so join me in wishing them the best.

QB - Mayfield (48) - All remaining owners have at least one other QB playing this week, so his low ownership makes him pretty irrelevant.  In an ironic twist, not only does Ben have more owners (81), but he has a higher survival rate.  Let's see how they compare when they face off again in week 13.

RB - Chubb (540), Conner (43), Samuels (31), Hunt (9) - It's pretty obvious who will be moving the line to start the week off.

WR - Juju (157), Washington (55), Landry (33), OBJ (23), Callaway (7) - Even if Juju caught every pass thrown to him this year, he would have only 2 more catches through the first 9 games.

TE - McDonald (83), RSJ (3) - Vance owners want this guy back -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef1_KlnA4Nc   RSJ may become extinct pretty soon.

K - Seibert (284), Boswell (234) - Only Butker & Prater were more common than these 2 guys.

D - CLE (227), PIT (85) - Browns D were the 4th most common, but have sucked.  Steelers cost the same, have outscored them 103 to 44, and have scored better than them in all but week 1 (where there was no cut line).

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Even if Juju caught every pass thrown to him this year, he would have only 2 more catches through the first 9 games.

 

:confused:

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10 minutes ago, JoeSteeler said:

:confused:

After 9 games last year, he had 56 catches.  After 9 games this year, he has 58 targets.

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38 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

After 9 games last year, he had 56 catches.  After 9 games this year, he has 58 targets.

ah OK - wording struck me as odd (doesn't mention last year)

carry on

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On ‎11‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 12:07 AM, jdkapow said:

 

Strongest Living Team: Seven teams are still averaging over 200, still led by Entry 107906 at 208.23.

 

Just missed...I'm at 199.995

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I'm probably toast.  Lockett, Deebo and Gordon are all off, so I'm stuck with Juju's 4 point "performance".  I doubt with only 1000 moving on that I'm going to be able to overcome that.

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56 minutes ago, dbc925 said:

I'm probably toast.  Lockett, Deebo and Gordon are all off, so I'm stuck with Juju's 4 point "performance".  I doubt with only 1000 moving on that I'm going to be able to overcome that.

Eh? You meant Metcalf maybe?

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Given there are 540 Chubb owners left, for those without him last night was like getting a 5 to 10 pt. bonus.

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QB - Mayfield (48 - 27.75)

RB - Chubb (540 - 9.20), Conner (43 - 2.10), Samuels (31 - 13.00), Hunt (9 - 8.80

WR - Juju (157 - 4.10), Washington (55 - 7.90), Landry (33 - 14.30), OBJ (23 - 10.00)

TE - McDonald (83 - 7.80)

K - Seibert (284 - 3.00), Boswell (234 - 1.00)

D - CLE (227 - 12.00), PIT (85 - 1.00)

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Thinking with all the highly owned players out this week and Thursday’s bad performances we could get a cut line in the 120’s this week.

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On 11/15/2019 at 1:58 PM, Nigel said:

Given there are 540 Chubb owners left, for those without him last night was like getting a 5 to 10 pt. bonus.

Not sure I agree with that as I imagine there will be a lot of single digit scores that count this week. 

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On 11/12/2019 at 4:22 PM, JoeSteeler said:

I don't see how I can survive week 11 without some sort of minor miracle. Will have:

 

Jackson/Goff

Chubb/D Montgomery/Duke/Breida (?)/Ty Montgomery

Thielen (?)/Godwin/Crowder

Andrews/Waller

Prater/Gay

Panthers/Jets

 

so between 8-10 players to cover the 7 spots. 

 

not sure how I come out above the cut line this week. No Breida or Thielen and probably no D Montgomery. Vhubb only scoring 9.2 does not help.

Need 30+ pts out of QB/Godwin/Andrews/Waller at least

 

 

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6 hours ago, cstruk said:

Thinking with all the highly owned players out this week and Thursday’s bad performances we could get a cut line in the 120’s this week.

128 with a quarter left in the 4:00 games.  

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38 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

128 with a quarter left in the 4:00 games.  

Didn’t figure in Lamar and Andrews combining for 62.

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3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I would love to see the stat on how many people just got eliminated by the 8 point Sf 49er defensive TD on the last play of the game...

It may have an effect down the road, but the  cutoff moved slightly or not at all

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Went from +10 over the cut line to 6.2 below during the 4:00 games as the cut line moved around 16-17 and I had no one going.  Got ARob -4.1 and Kelce -5.4 still to go so I am hopeful.

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On one hand, i don't feel great because I'm only 20.3 above the cut with nobody left. On the other hand, 478 pepple would have to leapfrog me to knock me out.  Seems like a lot.  I think I'm feeling cautiously optimistic?

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On 11/15/2019 at 5:53 AM, Nigel said:

Just missed...I'm at 199.995

You're one of the seven. I was only looking at two decimal places.

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12 minutes ago, dbc925 said:

On one hand, i don't feel great because I'm only 20.3 above the cut with nobody left. On the other hand, 478 pepple would have to leapfrog me to knock me out.  Seems like a lot.  I think I'm feeling cautiously optimistic?

No way the cut line jumps over 20. You’re in. Congrats!

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Sitting at 141.8 with only D Montgomery left (-1.1). Probably need him to score 11.1+ To have a chance 

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Good chance my dead entry will reinforce its deadness this week.

After 4pm games 138.60 + (K Allen/J Reynolds - 5.40/6.50)

Good luck to those sweating The Turk for real :)
-QG

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I'm hoping I didn't peak too early.  Currently at 217 with D. Montgomery (-8.4), Kupp (-13.7), and KC DST (-21) still possibly counting.  Would really have liked this week a couple weeks down the road, but I'm safely into week 12!

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9.1 below the line with less than a quarter to go in tonight's game... but I've got Kelce - 0, Ekeler - 5.4, and Hardman - 7.2 tomorrow.  Should be good to advance if Kelce has a solid game, but a TD from Ekeler or Hardman sure would help the cause.  Figure if the line moves ~10-15 tomorrow that means I need ~20-25 from the combo above... which they've provided every week except weeks 6 and 9.  So I'll give myself 2-out-of-3 chance to advance (sure they delivered every week from 1 through 5, but then only came through 3 of past 5 weeks, so lately it's been a less sure thing).

Of course, if I make it through then I'll need to survive week 12 with all 3 of these same guys on my bench...

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On that note, something interesting for the guys who run the numbers and provide those great analyses every week, would be nice to see some takes on the "$ on bye" and possibly "$ injured" each week.

I.e., what was the average $ on bye this week?  I only had $6 (Gordon), but also had $25 idle due to injury (Kittle).  I'm sure there might be some more interesting takes than just average $, but that seems like one that could probably be computed without much effort.  Would be interesting to do an X-Y plot of "$ on bye/injured" and "survival rate"... though calculating the injured amount takes a bit more effort, and somewhat subjective (if a guy was technically active but only in case needed in emergency and wound up sitting).  But definitely could be some lessons learned for next year.  I know I took a gamble with Kelce and Ekeler having late byes but liked their value too much and figured there were a lot of other appealing players (Mahomes, Cook, etc.) with week 12 bye so I wouldn't be the only one.

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Ghost now edging towards torturing me for another week by sticking around.

141.70 + (K Allen -6.50)

That knife fight of a game hardly moved the line at all.

-QG

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Cut line sits at 137.30 with only Monday Night to go...

QB - Rivers (112), Mahomes (94)

RB - Ekeler (435), Thompson (267), Jackson (100), McCoy (47), Williams (12), Gordon (1)

WR - Hardman (195), Williams (161), Hill (111), Watkins (79), Allen (34), Benjamin (20), Robinson (9)

TE - Kelce (283), Henry (245)

K - Butker (346), Badgley (149)

D - KC (115), LAC (50)

I have been eliminated for the 3rd time (weeks 7, 10, 11).  Note to self - stop choosing David Johnson for this contest.

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I'm at 145.2 + (Ekeler - 5.4)

Looks like it will be close, how much does the line normally move for MNF?  O/U is 53

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168 with Ekeler at -5.4. Never made it past week 10 before. Would love to win some $$, but pretty happy no matter what happens going forward.

Surviving without Kerryon. Looks like I'm losing Stafford too, but otherwise reasonably healthy if Engram comes back.

GL all

Edited by brun

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I am close to the cut line, sitting at 150.5 and only have Hunter Henry going tonight, he will count as a flex with everything above Westbrook's 7.2. I only had two active RBs and Duke Jonson and Singletary managed only a combined 15.3. L. Jackson, Gallup, Andrews, Waller and Gabriel were the only double digit scorers.

Hopeful for a big night from my ex-Razorback! 

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ended +8.9 over the cut line...going to be very, very close but not feeling good about it

Line will probably move 8-10 tonight I would think

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