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TRUMP TO INFINITY AND BEYOND HQ - The Great and Positive Place (15 Viewers)

timschochet said:
Donald Trump has no sense of irony whatsoever. He has no sense of hypocrisy whatsoever. 

These are not meant to be criticisms. In a politician these are probably admirable traits. 
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100% completely agree. I have been saying this forever - it’s his greatest political strength. 

 
I have yet to see any indication what. so. ever. to share in Tim’s optimism.  The other independents I know still hate both choices (Dem voters really blew an opportunity to move the party forward) and the Anti/Pro Trump people are as dug in as they’ve always been. I’m not sure I see a path to Trumps defeat at this point but admittedly it’s nothing more then a gut instinct and not one built on any kind of polling or research.  

 
I consider myself an independent, yet there is no way I could vote for Biden or any of the other Democratic candidates they ran out there. To be fair, I'm no Trump fan either. But between Biden or Trump, yuck! I'll hold my nose and vote Trump. 

 
crackattack said:
I consider myself an independent, yet there is no way I could vote for Biden or any of the other Democratic candidates they ran out there. To be fair, I'm no Trump fan either. But between Biden or Trump, yuck! I'll hold my nose and vote Trump. 
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I’d consider myself the same and I didn’t even vote in 2016, but I feel the exact opposite. Not a fan of either candidate but there’s no chance I could vote for Trump or give him a better chance at winning again so I’ll hold my nose and vote Biden for 2020. Most likely will be voting 3rd party in 2024.

As far as who’s more likely to win, I’m not sure how anyone could be super confident in either guy at this point. Both have massive flaws and 2016 was a very tight race. I don’t see it being much different this time around, all it would take is a couple of swing states to flip 1% and Biden wins, and all it would take for Trump is to win the same states he won in 2016 and we know how loyal his base is.

 
Tim's been saying the same thing for ages.  No reason to curb his optimism when the economy (Trump's biggest selling point) is down.

 
jm192 said:
Tim's been saying the same thing for ages.  No reason to curb his optimism when the economy (Trump's biggest selling point) is down.
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I’m not cheering the fact. Give me the choice between an economic rebound and 4 more years of Trump vs the current catastrophe and Biden wins, I’ll take the former. I don’t ever root for bad things to happen. I’ve never understood those who do. 

 
timschochet said:
I’m not cheering the fact. Give me the choice between an economic rebound and 4 more years of Trump vs the current catastrophe and Biden wins, I’ll take the former. I don’t ever root for bad things to happen. I’ve never understood those who do. 
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I wasn't meaning to imply you were.  Sorry if it came across that way.  

I was just saying that--you've had the same stance for 6 months or more.  With the economy down, it makes since Trump takes a hit.  Why wouldn't your belief that Biden wins be strong at this point?

 
jm192 said:
I wasn't meaning to imply you were.  Sorry if it came across that way.  

I was just saying that--you've had the same stance for 6 months or more.  With the economy down, it makes since Trump takes a hit.  Why wouldn't your belief that Biden wins be strong at this point?
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It’s true that for a long time I’ve given Biden over a 50% chance to win- anywhere between 55-60%, for 3 reasons, 2 of which I still believe, 1 of which I was very wrong about as it turns out. 

The first reason was that I believed people are exhausted by Trump: he’s by far the most ubiquitous politician in American history. Most folks don’t want politics in their face every day. Usually, by the way, this fact favors Republican leaders who tend to be less always in the news. In the case it favors Trump’s opponent whoever that is because nobody could ever be in the news as much as Trump. I still believe this. 

The second reason was that Joe Biden is a moderate compared to Bernie. I feared a Bernie candidacy because it would make the election a referendum on socialism. Instead it will be a referendum on Trump, which is to Biden’s advantage. I still believe this. 

The third reason was that I thought people would be turned off by Trump’s impeachable offenses. That turned out to be a false assumption. It’s not that the public approves of the crap he pulled or think it’s OK, it’s that...they just don’t care. It didn’t affect them. I was as wrong as the Trump supporters who predicted the public would angrily rise up and throw out the Democrats for impeaching him: remember those predictions? Neither turned out to be true. The public doesn’t give a ####. They don’t care about Russia either, or Tara Reade. And this causes me to reconsider Nixon as well- perhaps he shouldn’t have resigned. Anyhow I was wrong. 

But all of these reasons were before the coronavirus. Obviously that’s changed everything. Could Trump still win? Of course but I don’t see how any reasonable person could think that it’s likely. 

 
GoBirds said:
Wow, someone needs attention today.  :clyde:
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Is this the sort of drive by attack you’ve been complaining about? 

Anyhow that’s not true. What I wanted, what I always want, is discussion. Thankfully there are people here that have been willing to offer it. 

 
timschochet said:
This wasn’t a drive by post. I’m making a clear point here. I think President Trump is going to lose the election because of public perception that he lacks leadership skills in time of crisis. That is already evident in recent polling: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/496793-biden-opens-nine-point-lead-over-trump-in-senate-battlegrounds-poll%3famp

I also don’t think it’s your role to play board cop, but thanks. 
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Imagine actually believing this “Hart Research“poll.  :lmao:

And then we have the Reuters/Ipsos poll from the other day titled “Biden's edge evaporates as Trump seen as better suited for economy, coronavirus response.” 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/bidens-edge-evaporates-as-trump-seen-as-better-suited-for-economy-coronavirus-response-poll-shows-idUSKBN22I005

 
Widbil83 said:
Imagine actually believing this “Hart Research“poll.  :lmao:

And then we have the Reuters/Ipsos poll from the other day titled “Biden's edge evaporates as Trump seen as better suited for economy, coronavirus response.” 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/bidens-edge-evaporates-as-trump-seen-as-better-suited-for-economy-coronavirus-response-poll-shows-idUSKBN22I005
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But that poll you just linked doesn’t have Trump in the lead does it? Nor does it discuss the battleground states, which the poll I had focused on. As you know very well, national numbers don’t matter. What matters are the swing states: Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, a few others. Biden’s ahead in all of them and with the groups he needs to win: suburban women, seniors in Florida, blacks in the big cities. In other words the Obama coalition. That should be decisive. 

 
Widbil83 said:
Imagine actually believing this “Hart Research“poll.  :lmao:
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Also just a comment:  :lmao:  is intended to be used to laugh at something clearly humorous. But when it’s used to mock something you think is wrong, as you’re doing here, it strikes me as trolling. 

 
timschochet said:
But that poll you just linked doesn’t have Trump in the lead does it? Nor does it discuss the battleground states, which the poll I had focused on. As you know very well, national numbers don’t matter. What matters are the swing states: Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, a few others. Biden’s ahead in all of them and with the groups he needs to win: suburban women, seniors in Florida, blacks in the big cities. In other words the Obama coalition. That should be decisive. 
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I don’t think anybody is worried polling, especially anybody supporting President Trump. I would be concerned if the mainstream polls didn’t have him trailing at this point.

 
Widbil83 said:
I don’t think anybody is worried polling, especially anybody supporting President Trump. I would be concerned if the mainstream polls didn’t have him trailing at this point.
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Raiders fans used to offer this argument when Al Davis would make a shocking draft pick. It sounds good but does it really fly? 

 
timschochet said:
Also just a comment:  :lmao:  is intended to be used to laugh at something clearly humorous. But when it’s used to mock something you think is wrong, as you’re doing here, it strikes me as trolling. 
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The poll was funny, come on. And I have never heard of “Hart Research” poll in my life.  

 
Snotbubbles said:
Way too early to make this type of proclamation.  Polls are nothing more than snapshots in time.  There is a long way to go between now and November.    
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Remember when the polls said hillary clinton was going to win?    Yeah, me too.  Good times.  :)

The left couldn't help themselves and bragged at every turn.  Let'em do it again.  If they lose again, it's going to be even more glorious.

 
BladeRunner said:
Remember when the polls said hillary clinton was going to win?    Yeah, me too.  Good times.  :)

The left couldn't help themselves and bragged at every turn.  Let'em do it again.  If they lose again, it's going to be even more glorious.
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WHEN they lose again. 

 
Widbil83 said:
President Trump gave a lengthy Q&A yesterday, much like he does almost every day. He took more questions than Biden has in 2 months of hanging out in the basement.
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This is true, here's an example:

John : (01:06:02)
Mr. President. Can you bring us up to speed about a member of the Vice President staff who has now tested positive for Coronavirus. This is now the second staffer in the West wing.

Donald Trump: (01:06:12)
Yeah, I don’t know much about it. Does anybody want to talk about it? She’s a wonderful young woman, Katie. She tested very good for a long period of time and then all of a sudden today she tested positive. She hasn’t come into contact with me. Spend some time with the Vice President. It’s I believe the press person, right? I’d say press person. So she tested positive out of the blue. This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great.

The tests are perfect, but something could happen between a test where it’s good and then something happens. And all of a sudden… She was tested a very recently and tested negative. And then today I guess for some reason she tested positive. So Mike knows about it and Mike has done what he has to do. I think he’s on an airplane going to some far away place, but you’ll be able to ask him later on. But they’ve taken all of the necessary precautions. I understand Mike has been tested, Vice President and he tested negative.
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- So many more questions come out of the ones he answers.

 
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Speaker 10: (01:14:18)
But how important do you believe a vaccine is to getting out of this? And what do you say to those that this growing anti-vaccine-

Donald Trump: (01:14:25)
Well, I feel about vaccines, like I feel about tests. This is going to go away without a vaccine. It’s going to go away and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time. You may have some flare-ups. I guess, I would expect that sometime in the fall the U.S. will have flare-ups. Maybe, maybe not. But according to what a lot of people say, you probably will, we’ll be able to put them out. You may have some flare-ups next year, but eventually it’s going to be gone. It’s going to be gone. There are some viruses and flus that came and they went for a vaccine. They never found the vaccine and they’ve disappeared. They’ve never shown up again. They died too, like everything else. They die too. And so whether we do or not, I think great progress is being made by Johnson & Johnson, by Oxford, and some others. NYU, I see is very advanced. But if you don’t get it, this is going to go away at some point.

Speaker 12: (01:15:21)
What evidence have you seen that this is going to go away without a vaccine?

Donald Trump: (01:15:24)
I just rely on what doctors say. They say it’s going to go. That doesn’t mean this year, doesn’t mean it’s going to be gone, frankly, by the fall or after the fall. But eventually it’s going to go away. The question is will we need a vaccine? At some point it will probably go away by itself. If we had a vaccine that would be very helpful. Be very happy to have a vaccine.
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BladeRunner said:
Remember when the polls said hillary clinton was going to win?    Yeah, me too.  Good times.  :)

The left couldn't help themselves and bragged at every turn.  Let'em do it again.  If they lose again, it's going to be even more glorious.
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I wouldn’t even bother voting if I was a Trump supporter, too risky and he is a shoo-in to win anyway.

 
timschochet said:
Anything can happen. But right now I put the odds at about 70-80% that Joe Biden will be elected. That’s no sure thing but it’s pretty good. 
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You should be all in with the books then. Because Biden is plus money, and has been all year, currently +135.  Trump still the favorite in the real world. 

 
timschochet said:
Anything can happen. But right now I put the odds at about 70-80% that Joe Biden will be elected. That’s no sure thing but it’s pretty good. 
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That doesn’t reflect the electoral college situation. I would be willing to agree that President Trump will lose by more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016( betting up to 5 million votes) and the electoral votes will be closer but I still see the election as a tossup. I think the debates are going to be ugly and I don’t see Biden doing well against Trump’s bullying and lying. We already know nearly half the country are willing to overlook that. I think what Bette Midler tweeted April 20th sadly is true. 

@BetteMidler

·

Apr 20, 2019

Maybe Trump is the President we deserve. Maybe we have become so corrupt, amoral, materialistic, greedy, ruthless, manipulative, and such liars, that he really does represent who we really are. Maybe we have been fooling ourselves the whole time.

 
tonydead said:
You said that it would be that way when it was paired down to just 2.  :lmao:  Without the pandemic to blame on Big T.  lol
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Yes. After the conventions. But now it looks like there won’t be conventions so it probably has to wait until Labor Day. 

Come on @tonydead you can laugh about this, at my expense if you want, but you do realize it’s really unlikely Trump wins again right? He’s got a chance but not much of one. He’s Herbert Hoover. 

 
timschochet said:
Yes. After the conventions. But now it looks like there won’t be conventions so it probably has to wait until Labor Day. 

Come on @tonydead you can laugh about this, at my expense if you want, but you do realize it’s really unlikely Trump wins again right? He’s got a chance but not much of one. He’s Herbert Hoover. 
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No. You were confused about how betting markets work and said Biden would be favored as soon as the primaries were over and it was down to one nominee. Do you need me to link all your posts for you?  

You admit you've been wrong more than you've been right. You have a horrible track record. Yet you continue to think you are smarter than people that do this for a living.  That is the dictionary of being wrong. 

 
tonydead said:
No. You were confused about how betting markets work and said Biden would be favored as soon as the primaries were over and it was down to one nominee. Do you need me to link all your posts for you?  

You admit you've been wrong more than you've been right. You have a horrible track record. Yet you continue to think you are smarter than people that do this for a living.  That is the dictionary of being wrong. 
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All right. This has nothing to do with me, and you’re not really paying attention if you think you can rely on the betting markets to tell you who’s going to win. The people who do this for a living are the pollsters, not the betting markets, and I’m not smarter than them; I’m listening to them. Apparently you’re not. But sooner or later you will. 

 
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