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The Current Iran Threat (2019)

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@intelcrab

Very likely that the Trump administration is preparing a limited strike package on numerous sites of importance in #Iran. Still a lot of room to deescalate, but with a variety of assets already in the region, there is not much holding them back.

9:38 AM · Jun 20, 2019 · Twitter for Android

 

 

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The U.S. also announced a few days ago that they're moving 1,000 U.S. troops into the region as a "deterrent." 

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@JZarif

The US wages #EconomicTerrorism on Iran, has conducted covert action against us & now encroaches on our territory. We don't seek war, but will zealously defend our skies, land & waters. We'll take this new aggression to #UN & show that the US is lying about international waters

9:34 AM · Jun 20, 2019 · Twitter for Android

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Of all the bad things that can result from a Trump presidency this is in my top 5 fears.  I understand we’ve been fast and lose at times with our logic for getting involved in wars/regions.  With Trump it’s basically impossible to believe anything that he says and he’s surrounded himself with less than optimal people (IMO). I’ve always deferred to the President and his judgement and the judgement of his people - I don’t feel like I can do that any longer.  And FTR, with the way we’ve been hawkish for decades I was getting close to this mindset prior to Trump - he and his team have just escalated my thinking.

Edited by AAABatteries
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I don't think a war with Iran would be a popular decision.

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9 minutes ago, BroadwayG said:

I don't think a war with Iran would be a popular decision.

No it would not be. We are in perpetual war as it is, and nobody want yet ANOTHER shooting conflict. 

Edited by Jobber
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18 minutes ago, BroadwayG said:

I don't think a war with Iran would be a popular decision.

You're right.

Iran shooting down one of our drones isn't very popular either I'd guess

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Let's slow down the war with Iran talk. I know the popular tinfoil hat theory is that Trump wants a war with Iran to somehow ensure re-election. Iran can be put in place quite easily with airstrikes. Perhaps even within the next 24 hours. And Israel would be happy to take the lead on anything more elaborate than targeted airstrikes.

Edited by Mr Anonymous

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1 minute ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

You're right.

Iran shooting down one of our drones isn't very popular either I'd guess

 

We need to definitively know where that drone was first, I reckon. Is that settled?

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Let's slow down the war with Iran talk. I know the popular tinfoil hat theory is that Trump wants a war with Iran to somehow ensure re-election. Iran can be put in place quite easily with airstrikes. Perhaps even within the next 24 hours. And Israel would be happy to take the lead on anything more elaborate than targeted airstrikes.

Are airstrikes considered acts of war, or diplomacy tactics?

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1 minute ago, whoknew said:

 

We need to definitively know where that drone was first, I reckon. Is that settled?

According to the US Military it was dead center over the Gulf of Oman in international airspace. I have a feeling that's not good enough for many here so not sure what it's worth.

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1 minute ago, BroadwayG said:

Are airstrikes considered acts of war, or diplomacy tactics?

Well it's not American boots on Iranian sand so limited, targeted airstrikes is a much better option for this singular citizen.

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:

According to the US Military it was dead center over the Gulf of Oman in international airspace. I have a feeling that's not good enough for many here so not sure what it's worth.

 

Gotcha. It seems strange that Iran would shoot down a drone in international airspace. But I'll choose to believe the US military until there is evidence to the contrary.

So what is an appropriate response to shooting down a drone? 

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Putin just warned that any American military strike on Iran would be a “catastrophe”. 

Trump tweeted this morning: “The Iranians made a BIG mistake!” 

Not sure how this will resolve itself...

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For those jumping to the conclusion that Trump wants this to escalate, he apparently just gave Iran an excuse saying he thinks they shot it down in error.

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:

For those jumping to the conclusion that Trump wants this to escalate

Almost sure this is the exact opposite of the truth. Bolton, on the other hand...

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2 minutes ago, whoknew said:

 

Gotcha. It seems strange that Iran would shoot down a drone in international airspace. But I'll choose to believe the US military until there is evidence to the contrary.

So what is an appropriate response to shooting down a drone? 

:boxing:

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1 minute ago, whoknew said:

 

Gotcha. It seems strange that Iran would shoot down a drone in international airspace. But I'll choose to believe the US military until there is evidence to the contrary.

So what is an appropriate response to shooting down a drone? 

Something limited and small. Perhaps taking out a storage facility. One that's hopefully absent human presence.

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7 minutes ago, whoknew said:

 

Gotcha. It seems strange that Iran would shoot down a drone in international airspace. But I'll choose to believe the US military until there is evidence to the contrary.

So what is an appropriate response to shooting down a drone? 

A strongly worded memo.

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24 minutes ago, Jobber said:

No it would not be. We are in perpetual war as it is, and nobody want yet ANOTHER shooting conflict. 

Pretty close to what I was going to post. I'm sure the Founders would be so proud of perpetual war for economic and ideological reasons. 

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10 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

For those jumping to the conclusion that Trump wants this to escalate, he apparently just gave Iran an excuse saying he thinks they shot it down in error.

 

POTUS, per pool, seems inclined to given Iran a pass on from strike: “I imagine someone made a mistake...in shooting down the drone. We didn't have a man of woman in the drone. It would have made a big, big difference"

---

This seems like a reasonable route for Trump to take.

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Just now, whoknew said:

 

POTUS, per pool, seems inclined to given Iran a pass on from strike: “I imagine someone made a mistake...in shooting down the drone. We didn't have a man of woman in the drone. It would have made a big, big difference"

---

This seems like a reasonable route for Trump to take.

Putin called him.

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Just now, whoknew said:

 

POTUS, per pool, seems inclined to given Iran a pass on from strike: “I imagine someone made a mistake...in shooting down the drone. We didn't have a man of woman in the drone. It would have made a big, big difference"

---

This seems like a reasonable route for Trump to take.

It's definitely going to surprise some people, I'll say that much.

He continues to say he wants out of these wars, not to add them. I hope he continues to be true to those words.

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15 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Putin just warned that any American military strike on Iran would be a “catastrophe”. 

Trump tweeted this morning: “The Iranians made a BIG mistake!” 

Not sure how this will resolve itself...

At least it was only a drone.  Putin shoots down civilian passenger planes.

 

Just take out some Iranian planes on the ground and call it even and move on.

Edited by Summer Wheat
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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

It's definitely going to surprise some people, I'll say that much.

He continues to say he wants out of these wars, not to add them. I hope he continues to be true to those words.

Weren't you clamoring for airstrikes not 5 minutes ago?

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Just now, BroadwayG said:

Weren't you clamoring for airstrikes not 5 minutes ago?

Yes, some response is needed before Iran does something bigger. Do you not understand the difference between airstrikes and war?

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2 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Yes, some response is needed before Iran does something bigger. Do you not understand the difference between airstrikes and war?

Where I come from firing missiles into another country is an act of war.

I doubt Congress will officially declare war however.

Edited by BroadwayG

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Just now, BroadwayG said:

Where I come from firing missiles into another country is an act of war.

Then I suppose where you come from, shooting down drones and exploding mines on tankers are also acts of war.

What do you suppose should be done in response?

I'll hang up and listen.

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3 minutes ago, Summer Wheat said:

At least it was only a drone.  Putin shoots down civilian passenger planes.

 

Just take out some Iranian planes on the ground and call it even and move on.

We shot down an Iranian civilian plane. It was an overly aggressive commander, but we tried to cover up. So, some in the world will alwsys be skeptical of our account.

Iran Air Flight 655.

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3 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Then I suppose where you come from, shooting down drones and exploding mines on tankers are also acts of war.

What do you suppose should be done in response?

I'll hang up and listen.

Nothing. Maybe send them a bill for a new drone.

Edited by BroadwayG
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23 minutes ago, whoknew said:

Gotcha. It seems strange that Iran would shoot down a drone in international airspace. But I'll choose to believe the US military until there is evidence to the contrary.

So what is an appropriate response to shooting down a drone? 

Iran wants this escalation.  I see plenty, plenty of motivation for them to do this.  In fact, I was expecting it.  They are not shy about creating chaos in the shipping lanes (and did so very sloppily).

As far as appropriate response, I'd say pile on more sanctions, if possible.  That's what they're pushing against, so that's the button to keep pushing.  I don't think giving Iran what it wants with any direct military conflict is the correct strategic decision.

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10 minutes ago, Summer Wheat said:

At least it was only a drone.  Putin shoots down civilian passenger planes.

So does the United States.

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1 minute ago, Sand said:

Iran wants this escalation.  I see plenty, plenty of motivation for them to do this.  In fact, I was expecting it.  They are not shy about creating chaos in the shipping lanes (and did so very sloppily).

As far as appropriate response, I'd say pile on more sanctions, if possible.  That's what they're pushing against, so that's the button to keep pushing.  I don't think giving Iran what it wants with any direct military conflict is the correct strategic decision.

 

Two things - 

1) You think Iran wants to go to war with the US? Why? That does not seem like a particularly good outcome for them.

2) The problem with the sanctions is they directly harm the people of Iran. Who have little to no say in the actions of its government.

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Just now, BroadwayG said:

Nothing.

Thank goodness you're not making the decisions then. If you were, we'd all get to sit back and wait for Iran's 3rd act. Much scarier though, we'd get to sit back and see what Israel decides to do once they tire of us sitting on our hands.

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Just now, ShamrockPride said:

In short, no this will not lead to a conflict. This is all posturing right now. Who's got the bigger ####

:mellow: Oh great.

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53 minutes ago, Jobber said:

No it would not be. We are in perpetual war as it is, and nobody want yet ANOTHER shooting conflict. 

We've always been  at war with Iraq  Iran.

Edited by moleculo
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9 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Thank goodness you're not making the decisions then. If you were, we'd all get to sit back and wait for Iran's 3rd act. Much scarier though, we'd get to sit back and see what Israel decides to do once they tire of us sitting on our hands.

So do you hope for airstrikes or "He continues to say he wants out of these wars, not to add them. I hope he continues to be true to those words."

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1 minute ago, BroadwayG said:

So do you hope for airstrikes or "He continues to say he wants out of these wars, not to add them. I hope he continues to be true to those words."

Both are very much achievable in conjunction with one another. You seem to be one of the few that doesn't grasp that. 

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If the U.S. hits anything Iranian with airstrikes, you better believe Iranian proxy forces will attack our troops in other places.

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12 minutes ago, whoknew said:

 

Two things - 

1) You think Iran wants to go to war with the US? Why? That does not seem like a particularly good outcome for them.

2) The problem with the sanctions is they directly harm the people of Iran. Who have little to no say in the actions of its government.

1.  War?  No.  Agitation to the point that we may engage in a way more in Iran's favor?  Yes.  The current admin is squeezing them and they're lashing out.

2.  This is always the case.  The current government is pretty repressive and (IMO) on pretty shaky ground.  One can only do what's right (and I believe the sanctions are right) and hope that it leads to government that reflects the morals and freedoms the people want.  BTW, if you get a chance, this is a great book on the subject.  Read it a couple years ago and it gives great insight into what the people there are like.  I have a good friend from there and discussing his homeland is pretty fascinating.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Both are very much achievable in conjunction with one another. You seem to be one of the few that doesn't grasp that. 

Correct, I don't believe airstrikes will make Iran say "oops, sorry, we will avoid any future aggression. Is there anything else we can do for you?"

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Just now, Misfit said:

I’m with @BroadwayG on this. Not understanding how air strikes into a sovereign nation is not an act of war, much less de-escalating tensions

Again ignoring the acts of Iran which would have been the impetus for a response as yet even seen from the US. Do you think if the US does nothing, Iran will simply stop such acts?

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21 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Putin called him.

Best framing of issues is where Trump is a bloodthirsty maniac inches away from nuclear trigger, or a soft puppet for Putin who simply doesn’t have the fortitude to “stand up” to him with no middleground at all.  Thanks russiagate.  

This is so bad.  It’s amazing they’re trying to do this with a straight face.  Apparently the drone was in Iranian airspace?  

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1 minute ago, ren hoek said:

Apparently the drone was in Iranian airspace?  

Depends on who you ask.

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4 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Best framing of issues is where Trump is a bloodthirsty maniac inches away from nuclear trigger, or a soft puppet for Putin who simply doesn’t have the fortitude to “stand up” to him with no middleground at all.  Thanks russiagate.   

This is so bad.  It’s amazing they’re trying to do this with a straight face.  Apparently the drone was in Iranian airspace?   

just for a moment, put away your impressions of how the media treats Trump.  What do you think the US should do?  What do you think we will do?  Who do you believe WRT location of the drone, and why?

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