Life after Gronk (1 Viewer)

Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere but I could not find anything via search. Simply put - who is the TE to own in New England this year? And what can we reasonably expect?

Ben Watson - After some quick stat review I was surprised to see how pedestrian his numbers were. 2010 and 2015 were great years but beside that there isn’t a whole lot to get excited about. This could be WR bias where I’m just looking at his numbers with a WR’s in mind. But Ben was one of those guys that always screamed consistency and reliability to me. He’s 38. He most likely can’t separate from a wet paper towel. But possible red zone target? I just can’t picture TE1 or 2 numbers. 

Stephen Anderson and Matt LaCosse - Two young guys I really don’t know much at all about. I remember Anderson on the Texans being a fairly mobile and quick TE. LaCosse I have no words. 

As you can see - my understanding of the players involved in the situation is poor and that’s even a stretch. There are two other guys listed on the roster as well - Ryan Izzo and Andrew Beck. Are they simply placeholders or something to see? 

I have to imagine Ben is gonna be starting at least for the first half of the season until the young guys are up to speed. Can he put up TE2 numbers? Is one of the younger guys going to take over during the second half of the season? 

Would love to hear your thoughts. 

I honestly don't know much about the TE position but I believe historically when Gronk has been out, James White has had big games. I don't know if that'll be a season long thing or if it was just game to game.

Back to talk about the TE talk.

None

Watson is suspended the first 4 games

JoeSteeler said:

Watson is suspended the first 4 games

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Ah yes thank you for reminding me! 

None imo. They'll totally change what they expect from the TE position without Gronk and de-emphasize it. They are one of the best organizations, if not THE best, at playing to their strengths to attack weaknesses. They aren't going to arbitrarily feed the ball to a JAG TE just bc Gronk was a HOFer. Just like they never really replaced Hernandez in that move-TE spot, they did other things. 

Off topic a bit, but I was wondering how things might have evolved had Hernandez not gone criminal.  He was seeing 8 targets a game.  Would he and Gronk have become an unstoppable tandem? Or, would he have diluted Gronk's and/or Edelman's numbers? 

Prior to Gronk, NE was known for NOT using a TE... at least in fantasy circles.  As ConnSkins mentions above, they'll play to their player's strengths.

Live a life less Gronk-inary
Live a life extraordinary with me
Live a life less sedentary
Live a life evolutionary with me

DropKick said:

Off topic a bit, but I was wondering how things might have evolved had Hernandez not gone criminal.  He was seeing 8 targets a game.  Would he and Gronk have become an unstoppable tandem? Or, would he have diluted Gronk's and/or Edelman's numbers? 

Prior to Gronk, NE was known for NOT using a TE... at least in fantasy circles.  As ConnSkins mentions above, they'll play to their player's strengths.

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Your question fits with the discussion of NE playing to their strengths. The 2011 Patriots wore out Welker in terms of targets. Edelman was a back up, Moss was gone, Deion Branch was back, and Chad Ochocinco made an ill-fated appearance. At that point, NE hardly used their running backs out of the backfield at all.

The following year, both Gronk and Hernandez missed a fair amount of time, so Hernandez likely got a lot more targets when Gronk was out. They added Brandon Lloyd, had Branch for his last rodeo, and started using Woodhead out of the backfield more when they needed another weapon.

As for the question of who is the NE tight end to own post-Gronk, I said "none" earlier and have posted on the subject in other threads. NE in the TB era played almost a decade with minimal TE production until Gronk and Hernandez showed up. IMO, the TE spot is not a position of strength receiving wise. I think they may use their TE as blockers for both their running game and to help out the OL (they don't really have a proven left tackle at this point). So they may play more multi receiver sets or use guys out of the backfield more to make up for a lack of Gronk. So there may not be a passing of the torch of TE production from Gronk to a certain TE. Of course, there will likely be a game or two where they identify that TE will be a mismatch and look to exploit it, but in the main I don't expect any of the Patriots to get consistent usage and steady fantasy production.

Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I honestly don't know much about the TE position but I believe historically when Gronk has been out, James White has had big games. I don't know if that'll be a season long thing or if it was just game to game.

Back to talk about the TE talk.

Click to expand...

you answered the question perfectly! James White is the TE to own in the NE offense - they're going to use him like a receiver ( Ok he's not a TE I get it) . James white is going to do his best Larry Centers imitation, i.e., 90+/- recs on the year, every year.

as for the actual TE position in NE, I think it'll be pretty much null and void, not much fantasy value in other words. It's anyone's guess who arises from the scrap heap of players they have. Do they make a trade for someone? Doyle from Indy maybe? 

tangfoot said:

Live a life less Gronk-inary
Live a life extraordinary with me
Live a life less sedentary
Live a life evolutionary with me

Click to expand...

I dig that tune and band.

Tanner9919 said:

you answered the question perfectly! James White is the TE to own in the NE offense - they're going to use him like a receiver ( Ok he's not a TE I get it) . James white is going to do his best Larry Centers imitation, i.e., 90+/- recs on the year, every year.

as for the actual TE position in NE, I think it'll be pretty much null and void, not much fantasy value in other words. It's anyone's guess who arises from the scrap heap of players they have. Do they make a trade for someone? Doyle from Indy maybe? 

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You know, this is one of those things that the whole fantasy community could be horribly wrong about, and that we should really exploit. I haven't been targeting him at all this offseason but maybe I should. I think I've been worried that the platoon of RBs in NE will cancel him out, but if we don't think of him as a RB (except in our lineups and in drafts) but rather as a major receiving option for Brady who happens to be listed as a RB, he really probably ought to be worth a lot more right now. In dynasty and redraft. 

Every year I try to come up with a half a dozen or more "what if" scenarios in terms of what big stories will describe the upcoming season, once the season has been completed? Can't really predict injuries but what big, league winning surprise stories would one kick themself about later, for having not predicted and acted upon during the previous summer?

James White might make that board for me right now. He did absolutely crush it at times last year and that precedent with Gronk out should probably hold more weight right now.

Gronk works out with Brady

Anarchy99 said:

He did do something similar with Harry. Guess you missed it.

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Ah, that I did.

Back to the topic at hand.  I have to agree with @Twenty-Four Eighty-Four.  James White will benefit more than any TE on the roster.  NE knows how to adapt to their strengths better than any other team.

For those suggesting the new TE to own in NE is James White, here's what the numbers show.

In 18 games over the past 4 seasons when White played and Gronk did not (including regular and post season numbers), White compiled 83 receptions on 114 targets, 681 receiving yards, and 7 TD. That works out to an average of 4.6 receptions on 6.3 targets for 37.8 receiving yards, and 0.39 TD per game. Projected over a full 16 game season, that would project to 74 receptions on 101 targets, 605 receiving yards, and 6 receiving TD.

By comparison, over the past 3 seasons when Gronk and White BOTH played (including regular and post season numbers), in 38 games, White averaged 4.2 receptions on 6.3 targets for 37.3 receiving yards and 0.34 receiving TD per game. Projected over a full 16 game season, that would project to 67 receptions on 101 targets, 597 receiving yards, and 5 receiving TD.

Those numbers are essentially the same, so it doesn't look like White was targeted more when Gronk was out, nor do the numbers reflect that he was any more productive in his peripheral numbers. To be fair, I didn't look at White's rushing totals, but he predominantly is a receiving threat.

Damien Harris is the play in the NE backfield.  I don't trust Sony 's knees.