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Melvin Gordon Value as of 7.11.19 amidst Holdout Talk (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

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Our Sigmund Bloom with a look here:

A CLOSE LOOK AT MELVIN GORDON'S VALUE

On Wednesday morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter tweeted that Gordon had informed the Chargers that "unless he receives a new contract, he will not report to training camp and will demand a trade." What does that mean for Gordon's fantasy value? What if you are drafting right now?

Let's take a look

Gordon and his agent might feel disrespected by the long term offer they got from the Chargers, but the team was under no obligation to make him an offer. Like Le'Veon Bell he might be dismayed that the team he gave much more over the value of the first four years of his rookie contract isn't willing to give him what he thinks is market value for his services now. Gordon can attempt to play the same game Bell did and offer no more of his blood to a team that he feels does not appreciate him and hope for a trade, but there are few if any teams with the positional need, cap room, and willingness to pay a running back top market value long term. Gordon could hold out into the season to test the Chargers mettle, but this is a notoriously cheap organization that has put winning the transaction over winning games as recently as the Joey Bosa holdout in 2016.

The best case scenario for Gordon's FF prospects is that he either accepts his situation and shows up early in camp or the Chargers make some sort of token gesture via incentives/escalators to get him on the field for this year. The chances of a long term deal that Gordon would find acceptable is almost zero. If Gordon waits until Week 2 or 3 to show up to see if the Chargers will budge, he will lose FF value not only for those games but also could be eased back into the lineup. Even if he shows up late in camp/preseason to avoid missing game checks, he'll be at higher risk of early-season injury since he may not in the same condition he would have been if he had shown up at the open of camp

The team is likely to employ an Austin Ekeler/Justin Jackson committee if Gordon misses time. Ekeler is a little more valuable, but the values are close enough that both should be moving up boards on this news. Gordon should be out of the first round until he reports, and maybe even low in the second round or into the third round. His risk factor is nebulous -- a la Todd Gurley -- and that's about where he should be going now. He has missed the fantasy playoffs two of the last three years, which was already a shadow over his value. Now, that risk could also be higher early in the season. If in doubt in a draft while this situation looms, pass on Gordon.
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Cash in if he drops to the third, telesco will cave in some way. Paying him that franchise tag for one year is already too much and they should have replaced him before they have to overpay him in the first place. Once Rivers retires the chargers will probably have less fans than chickens fighting in somebodies back yard.

 
After reading this, the first question I thought was - would the Chargers make any attempt to bring in another RB?  Are there any free agents out there that are better than an Ekeler/Jackson combo?

 
TheWinz said:
After reading this, the first question I thought was - would the Chargers make any attempt to bring in another RB?  Are there any free agents out there that are better than an Ekeler/Jackson combo?
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I think they'd bring in someone for depth but it would be the Eckler/Jackson show.

 
Penguin said:
I think they'd bring in someone for depth but it would be the Eckler/Jackson show.
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I could see them pulling a trade for someone in the first 4 weeks (maybe earlier). 

They are crazy to sign gordon in my books.  Let him walk.  Even better trade him to some other sucker team for a run backup rb and a pick

 
In that offense Duke Johnson would average a full yard/carry more than Gordon has over his career, and Duke might even be a better receiver to boot.

 
BoltBacker said:
In that offense Duke Johnson would average a full yard/carry more than Gordon has over his career, and Duke might even be a better receiver to boot.
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In Gordon's defense the oline was horrific his first couple of years.  Last year they were decent and it showed with Melvin averaging over 5 ypc.  Now you can argue that Gordon's  not worth it but let's not go comparing Duke Johnson to a pro bowler like Gordon

 
To me what’s interesting about the rhetoric is that is universally thought LeVeon Bell shot himself in the foot deploying the strategy he did, and yet here is Gordon threatening the same one.  While the layman might think what Bell did was not the smart move...does it become en vogue for RB’s to save a year of wear and tear on their bodies?

For my money, the Chargers on paper look to have a better RB depth chart than the Steelers had heading into 2018.  If I’m drafting today, I now I wouldn’t get him because I wouldn’t prioritize him...someone will.  But if he came back in TC depending on when, I’d be wary about him just on the basis of previous injury history and a shortened prep cycle.

 
That voice yelling at the top of their lungs from the distant corner.... is Leveon Bell... "DONT DO IT! DONT ****ING DO IT! JUST THREATEN IT! NOTHING MORE!"

 
Rookie RBs with heavy usage are getting hosed....you’ll continue to see RB holdouts late in rookie contracts because it is +EV.

Fournette is very smart to not play with injuries, but it has created friction with the Jags organization.

 
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Buckna said:
After Bell used the nuclear option last year, I’m not sure of anything any more. I wouldn’t touch Gordon with a 10ft pole in early drafts.
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Lots of truth here. I missed badly on Bell last year as I just assumed he wouldn't choose to forgo the paychecks. The question is will Gordon.

Although, speaking on July 11, I'll be pretty surprised if this turns into him actually missing time. Stay tuned. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Lots of truth here. I missed badly on Bell last year as I just assumed he wouldn't choose to forgo the paychecks. The question is will Gordon.

Although, speaking on July 11, I'll be pretty surprised if this turns into him actually missing time. Stay tuned. 
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Its not the same situation as Bell.  If Gordon holds out a full year, then what?  Franchise tag when he gets back?  Then what?  Another year and then he gets a shot at FA?  He doesn't have the resume.

Bell had already been tagged once.  I think Gordon plays.  My guess is, after being a beast in Mini camp, he may show up late to training camp.  Just my guess. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Lots of truth here. I missed badly on Bell last year as I just assumed he wouldn't choose to forgo the paychecks. The question is will Gordon.

Although, speaking on July 11, I'll be pretty surprised if this turns into him actually missing time. Stay tuned. 
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Two words that make nuclear option more viable than ever.  Jay. Ajayi.

 
TripItUp said:
Rookie RBs with heavy usage are getting hosed....you’ll continue to see RB holdouts late in rookie contracts because it is +EV.

Fournette is very smart to not play with injuries, but it has created friction with the Jags organization.
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Disagree.  Doubt that Gordon - if he was a FA - would get a deal that made this move +EV.  

What type of deal do you expect he would get as a UFA now, or in 1 year?

 
In regards to value, he went at pick 14 this afternoon in the startup I'm participating in.  This was after I saw the news, but I can't be certain that owner did.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Disagree.  Doubt that Gordon - if he was a FA - would get a deal that made this move +EV.  

What type of deal do you expect he would get as a UFA now, or in 1 year?
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Maybe 20% below what Bell got?  Which would be a drastic increase, and would avoid injury before landing more guaranteed money.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Disagree.  Doubt that Gordon - if he was a FA - would get a deal that made this move +EV.  

What type of deal do you expect he would get as a UFA now, or in 1 year?
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He's guaranteed 5.6mil for this year. If he sits out and can get a 10+ mil guarantee deal I think it's worth it because he could blow an achilles in camp and probably be on a short career of "prove it" deals if he plays on his current deal. Can't blame the kid for wanting to lock up some extra bucks. Unless the owners collude against him and take a stand against all players doing this, it could be a +EV move in regards to guaranteed money but if stays healthy then could be -EV in overall career earnings (like Bell). 

 
I feel bad for the current and future running backs in the NFL. They will make a decent living, and a few of them may even get a big contract from an idiot GM, but the analytics nerds have already won this battle. Tell your kid to find a new position while you can... They are two steps above kickers in terms of value to a good organization.

Outside of true generational talents like ADP and well... Maybe Barkley(but I certainly wouldn't bet on him being better than an average RB in five years)... They are truly dime a dozen in today's NFL. The stats have already spoken and I don't think the clock is ever being turned back.

 
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Bell sat out the entire year last year, and......while he didn't get exactly what he wanted, he got a pretty good deal.

Will be very interesting to see what Gordon does.  The LA Chargers are pretty frugal, so if there is a stalemate, bet on the Chargers not budging.

Which means....stay far away in drafts.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Truth here. An often overlooked point. 
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Agreed. But where?

Going to take a significant injury. Given that the Chargers will want a decent return on investment, Gordon wants a fully loaded new deal, and teams, barring injury have already completed roster construction via draft and FA- not many points jump off the page. 

Hypothetically, if I'm drafting today, I don't see how I can take him early. 

 
Ack88 said:
Agreed. But where?

Going to take a significant injury. Given that the Chargers will want a decent return on investment, Gordon wants a fully loaded new deal, and teams, barring injury have already completed roster construction via draft and FA- not many points jump off the page. 

Hypothetically, if I'm drafting today, I don't see how I can take him early. 
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Rumors were that the Texans wanted Gordon in 2015, the Chargers gave up multiple picks to trade up two spots to get ahead of them to select Gordon. However, given the Texans are going no General Manager for the season ( :oldunsure: ) I think it's pretty unlikely they trade for him. They'd be a prime destination spot for Gordon as a FA next year though as they have tons of cap space and Lamar Miller's contract would be done.

While the fantasy community is down on Miller, I think it's unlikely they'd trade for Gordon right now and sign him to big money and cut Miller. But who knows what the Texans will do since they are in front office limbo right now.

 
what are the teams that need/want to make a trade for a RB? takes two to tango. have to find the other team who wants to dance.

Mg would probably do well in TB , in Arians offense - he immediately betas out Barber and Jones.

he might be a good pickup for Jax, Colts, Houston, KC, Balt. 

Problem is, MG is a 4.0 ypc/a guy for his career. pretty low numbers. doubtful they can get a high draft pick in return.

 
I’m in a superflex FFPC draft right now and he’s still there at pick 2.3. I’m next. I don’t think I’ll pull the trigger. I wonder how far he’ll fall?

 
TheWinz said:
After reading this, the first question I thought was - would the Chargers make any attempt to bring in another RB?
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I don’t think so. They already have a 3rd RB they like — Detrez Newsome. IMO the Chargers will wait Gordon out and use Ekeler, Jackson, and Newsome for as long as it takes. 

 
Hairy Snowman said:
Its not the same situation as Bell.  If Gordon holds out a full year, then what?  Franchise tag when he gets back?  Then what?  Another year and then he gets a shot at FA?  He doesn't have the resume.
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The Chargers won’t franchise tag him next year IMO. They will just let him walk and draft a RB. They have too many other priorities next offseason and won’t have much cap space. 

Also, in the Gordon thread, it was posted that he cannot hold out all season and become a free agent. He has to report at some point. His situation is not the same as Bell’s. Bell was not under contract; Gordon is. 

I think the Chargers will wait him out and Gordon will cave at some point rather than foregoing the $5.6M he is due this season. Then he will get to test the market next offseason, and I don’t think he will get close to what he is looking for right now. 

 
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