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Trip's Top 10 Undervalued - July Edition (2 Viewers)

TripItUp

Footballguy
Top 5 Undervalued PPR/Redraft based on FF Calculator ADP (June 17 - July 17)

1.  Peyton Barber(11.10) & Bruce Anderson(>15.04) - Ronald Jones is not good at football, I've been saying it since before the 2018 draft.   Fading Jones is the shark move, just like it was last year.  The recent Jones hype should be music to your ears as it keeps Barber and Anderson's price at reasonable levels. 

2.  Nick Chub(2.09)  - Second half numbers under Kitchens and Mayfield speak for themselves.  I currently have Chubb ranked RB#6 ahead of Bell, Conner, Gordon etc.  

3.  Amari Cooper(3.04) - Another strong second half performer, I have Amari ranked WR#7 and he is currently going WR#12.  

4.  Tyreek HIll(4.02) - last year's #2 WR is going in the 4th round.  He'll be suspended but current suspension guesstimates don't justify this slide, even if you project regression.  He should be gone by the middle 3rd at the latest.

5.  Tyler Lockett(5.05) - last year's #15 WR, and now he's the unquestioned #1.   I have him ranked WR14, but he is the 24th WR off the board per ADP.  

6.  Darrell Henderson(6.08) - this is a potential league winning pick, and possibly the most polarizing player YTD.  Yes he's received a lot of hype, but it's justified IMHO.  Gobble this kid up before the preseason highlights put his ADP in the 4th round instead of the late 6th.  Not too many league winning picks in the 6th round.  Drafting Henderson is aggressive, but +EV.

7.  Donte Moncrief(11.02) - There aren't too many WRs with top 20 upside going in the 11th round.  Moncrief is a high floor/high ceiling selection this year.  I'd also grab the rookie D. Johnson if you have a deep roster format...somebody is undervalued in Pittsburgh right now and I'm not a James Washington fan.

8.  Jordan Reed(14.04) - Ranked as my #11 TE, he's going TE#19, yet finished TE#11 in ppg last year.  If you get stuck waiting on TE there isn't a single better ppg proven commodity at TE this late in the draft.  

9.  Jameis Winston(10.04) - Top 5 upside with a QB13 price tag.  Don't underestimate the impact of Arians...he resurrected the career of Carson Palmer, and made it look easy. My redraft strategy actually centers around waiting on QB and taking Winston late.

10. Josh Gordon(>15.04) - Going near the end of drafts, Gordon was WR#26 PPG last year and there is no Gronk this year.  We have no idea what his status is with the NFL, but he's more than worth the dice roll at his current price tag.   

 
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Disagree with Barber, we've seen what he does with a "full" workload when everyone else behind him sucks.  His ceiling is what he did last year, 871/5 along with his pass catching 20/92/1.  You may not like him (neither do I) but Ronald Jones is very likely to get more work than he did last year, at least he's an unknown with a high ceiling with a big "IF" he hits.  He still might suck as well, but Barber is far from good.  

I like the rest of the list otherwise and have targeted a few myself.  Mostly Moncrief, Reed and Lockett.  

 
Disagree with Barber, we've seen what he does with a "full" workload when everyone else behind him sucks.  His ceiling is what he did last year, 871/5 along with his pass catching 20/92/1.  You may not like him (neither do I) but Ronald Jones is very likely to get more work than he did last year, at least he's an unknown with a high ceiling with a big "IF" he hits.  He still might suck as well, but Barber is far from good.  
Last year's rushing offense was a grease fire.  One thing we did learn last year was that Barber >> Jones.  Arians will play the back that will help him win...that isn't Jones.

Expect improved rushing efficiency under Arians...assuming you've seen what Barber can do is a misstep IMHO.

 
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Barber shouldn't be on the list or at least at the bottom but Ronald Jones sucks total and complete ###. Anytime a RB us slow and not explosive enough for the NFL "gains weight" it's never good. 

We've seen enough of Winston too. No bueno. 

Nice list though. I like some of the guys on there. Bravo for coming out and planting your flag bro!

 
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FYI, Arians and Warner never crossed paths professionally as Coach/QB.  

A lot of people are jumping on that Arians/Winston train...I’m a brake pumper on that one.  IMO, what’s going to matter here is wins/losses and I could easily see a scenario where by the second half of the season, the Bucs turn thoughts to 2020 and start seeing if Gabbert/Griffin are long term backup solutions while they position themselves for a QB rich draft.  Guy simply should have never licked his fingers...

Darrell Henderson...I know I’m in the minority here, but I think this whole Todd Gurley knee thing is being blown out of proportion.  There is no way Vegas puts the Rams at a 10.5 wins O/U figure without having re-assuring info on him.  I’m not a doctor...but I would suspect that if it were something the Rams/Gurley were concerned about, he’d have had ‘a procedure’ (queue Billy Crystal in City Slickers).  Will Gurley be on a 400 touch pace like he was for the first half of 2018?  No...but Gurley will not be an RBBC guy.

i like the Moncrief, Lockett picks though.

 
I haven't seen Chubb, Hill, Lockett or Henderson fall as far as that in the redrafts I have done.

I agree on Winston and R.Anderson, I've been snagging Winston as my QB2 late and taking Anderson as a flyer.

Amari Cooper I'm torn on, while he definitely improved in Dallas, he's still wildly inconsistent.

PPR points per game weeks 1 thru 6 in Oakland - 1.9, 21.6, 3.7, 26.8, 2.0, 0 - 56.0 in in 6 games with 48.4 of them in 2 games and 7.6 of them in 4 games

PPR points per game weeks 9 thru 17 in Dallas - 16.8, 13.5, 6.6, 38.0, 15.5, 49.7, 7.2, 6.0, 8.1 - 161.2 in 9 games with 87.7 of them in 2 games and 73.5 of them in 7 games

 
I love this list, and have been touting some of these same players (Barber, Lockett, and Winston).  Here are a few more of mine, using the same FF Calc ADP:

Latavius Murray (7.08) - He has essentially taken over Ingram's role, and I don't see him as a downgrade.

Devin Funchess (12.05) - Some have knocked on him that he puts up TE-like stats, but I will gladly take a 12th rounder with the TD potential he offers.

 
Darrell Henderson...I know I’m in the minority here, but I think this whole Todd Gurley knee thing is being blown out of proportion.  There is no way Vegas puts the Rams at a 10.5 wins O/U figure without having re-assuring info on him.  
No way. RB don't matter that much.

Winston getting benched/cut/traded though and Gabbert is starting a game or two imo. So I'm with you on that. 

 
I love this list, and have been touting some of these same players (Barber, Lockett, and Winston).  Here are a few more of mine, using the same FF Calc ADP:

Latavius Murray (7.08) - He has essentially taken over Ingram's role, and I don't see him as a downgrade.

Devin Funchess (12.05) - Some have knocked on him that he puts up TE-like stats, but I will gladly take a 12th rounder with the TD potential he offers.
I saw a stat the other day, it was something along the lines that L.Murray is one of only four RB's to have 6 or more rushing TD's the last three years with Zeke, Gurley and Gordon.

 
Yeah Blaine Gabbert might have a decent year. I agree. 
I may be wrong on this but I don't see Blaine playing unless Jamis is absolutely horrid. With Evans, Godwin, Howard and apoor defense I see them throwing a lot and think they will all eat this year.

 
I love this list, and have been touting some of these same players (Barber, Lockett, and Winston).  Here are a few more of mine, using the same FF Calc ADP:

Latavius Murray (7.08) - He has essentially taken over Ingram's role, and I don't see him as a downgrade.

Devin Funchess (12.05) - Some have knocked on him that he puts up TE-like stats, but I will gladly take a 12th rounder with the TD potential he offers.
Yep, I'm on both of these guys too...Funchess a little less.  Would be nice if Murray wasn't quite so expensive...I usually end up with him when he slides to the 9th or 10th.

 
Huh? He's a RB. They've already shown to a degree that they can replace him when necessary. McVay is gonna have a top-5 offense with or without Gurley. Doesn't move the line hardly at all imo. 
Correct...RBs do not move point spreads for individual games or season totals.

 
There is no way Vegas puts the Rams at a 10.5 wins O/U figure without having re-assuring info on him. 
I don’t think anyone knows for sure about Gurley but I totally disagree with this. Goff, the WRs, the OL and that defense is enough to get them to 10 wins in that division. Vegas also knows the Rams drafted a dynamic RB and have a very good OL in order to hedge on Gurley missing time.

 
Huh? He's a RB. They've already shown to a degree that they can replace him when necessary. McVay is gonna have a top-5 offense with or without Gurley. Doesn't move the line hardly at all imo. 
Yeah, a lot of people are saying they easily replaced him...but the final two regular season games where Anderson went off were against ARI & SF.  You may have noticed they picked 1/2 this past draft and bad teams are notorious for mailing in weeks 16 & 17. Anderson’s DAL effort was impressive to be sure, but after that...not so much.  And he offered absolutely nothing in the passing game.

The first 11 weeks of the season, the Rams had 751 offensive snaps.  Gurley was in on 85% of them (635).  In the 8 games after that including playoffs without or with a compromised Gurley...Goff put up the following.

164 Completions, 286 attempts, 1853 Passing Yards, 7 TD’s, 7 INT’s...not exactly 10.5 O/U worthy.

Now, they won’t lean on him to that degree mentioned above moving forward, but from my POV, Gurley is still the engine of that offense.  Henderson is an exciting prospect to be sure, but 12 months ago, so was Ronald Jones.

Other Values

Leonard Fournette (2.11 - RB14):  If you allow for the fact that he left two games by halftime in 2018, then his extrapolated numbers in a 16-game season in that dumpster fire of a season JAX had would have been 1426 (YFS)/14.  That’s still Round 1 production even if it’s volume based.

James White (7.03 - RB33):   The guy accounted for 1176/12 last year and he’s going this low?  I know TD’s are tough to bank on and I’d expect regression year, but the ‘After Gronk Era’ In NE is going to lean more on White IMO, not less.

Robby Anderson (6.11 - WR29): If you believe in the Year 2 jump for Sam Darnold, then he’s got to develop that QB/WR1 connection.  With Chris Herndon suspended the first 4 games of 2019, there is an opportunity here for Anderson to seize that role.  And his per game production with theoretically lesser QB play has been solid.

 
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thanks for getting this going Trip.   Can add & delete moving forward & I love this topic.

 
Yeah, a lot of people are saying they easily replaced him...but the final two regular season games where Anderson went off were against ARI & SF.  You may have noticed they picked 1/2 this past draft and bad teams are notorious for mailing in weeks 16 & 17. Anderson’s DAL effort was impressive to be sure, but after that...not so much.  And he offered absolutely nothing in the passing game.

The first 11 weeks of the season, the Rams had 751 offensive snaps.  Gurley was in on 85% of them (635).  In the 8 games after that including playoffs without or with a compromised Gurley...Goff put up the following.

164 Completions, 286 attempts, 1853 Passing Yards, 7 TD’s, 7 INT’s...not exactly 10.5 O/U worthy.

Now, they won’t lean on him to that degree mentioned above moving forward, but from my POV, Gurley is still the engine of that offense.  Henderson is an exciting prospect to be sure, but 12 months ago, so was Ronald Jones.
I'm wondering why you started Goff's stats at that point?  Yes, Gurley averaged 58 snaps for the first 11 weeks, but in the next 3 games he topped that every game (65, 62, and 63), so he wasn't compromised.  He had 347 total yards, 16 catches, and 4 TD's.  As a matter of fact, from weeks 1 thru 11, he never once had back to back 60 snap games.  Then he sat the last 2 weeks of the regular season.  That's where you should start Goff's stats.  And let's break down those games quickly...

vs ARI - Goff wasn't needed, only throws 24 times, completes 19 with a TD.  He also runs one in.  LAR rushed 41 times for 269 yards - LAR WINS

vs SF - Goff has a very efficient 15 for 26 with 4 TD's.  CJ Anderson carries 23 times for 132 yards and a TD, and hauls in all 3 targets - LAR WINS

Goff's QB ratings for the above 2 games are 118.1 and 121.6, well above his 101.1 average.  These ranked as his 4th and 5th best games all season, so it can be argued that he did better without Gurley than with him (yeah, I know the opponents sucked, but the argument still stands).

OK, now onto the playoffs...

vs DAL - Gurley outsnaps Anderson 45 to 34, both run well, amassing 238 yards and 3 TD's on 39 carries - Goff goes 15/28 for 186 yds and a 74.4 QBR - LAR WINS

vs NO - Anderson outsnaps Gurley 37 to 32, neither runs well (20 for 54 and 1 TD), and each only catch 1 short pass - Goff goes 25/40 for 299 yards and 1 TD - LAR WINS

vs NE - a complete ####show by the Rams - they couldn't pass or run - the team looked defeated before kickoff.  Everyone gets a mulligan for this game.

For these 3 playoff games, I dare say they would've fared better just leaving Gurley sidelined.  I can just hear Goff in the huddle now...

Goff - Hey Todd, can you handle another carry?

Gurley - I dunno.

Goff - Screw it, everyone just go out and try to get open.

 
Great thread so far.

I would like to add Lamar Jackson to this list.  I know he is polarizing and many will disagree.  But in addition to all of the added rushing yards/TDs that he will turn into valuable fantasy points, it also needs to be noted that last year he was a 21 year old rookie who was thrust into an offense that had been designed for a pocket passer.  That offense was adjusted on the fly for him, and while he looked horrid as a passer there was a situation there that should be factored in.  I think he went 6-1 as a starter, maybe 6-2 with the playoff loss.  He held his own as a fantasy producer even in those circumstances.  Now, the team has added some nice offensive weapons in Ingram., Hill, M.Brown, and Boykin - all players who have exhibited playmaking ability, some big time playmking ability.  

A full off season to digest an offense designed for his skillset, from a reputable coaching staff.  A year of experience.  Added playmakers.  Some big losses on D.  If you look at this logically, Jackson seems like a very good bet to outproduce his ADP and has a ceiling that is pretty sky high.  I think his floor is elevated by the rushing points, which barring an RG3-like injury should remain constant even if he makes no strides as a passer.

 
Great thread so far.

I would like to add Lamar Jackson to this list.  I know he is polarizing and many will disagree.  But in addition to all of the added rushing yards/TDs that he will turn into valuable fantasy points, it also needs to be noted that last year he was a 21 year old rookie who was thrust into an offense that had been designed for a pocket passer.  That offense was adjusted on the fly for him, and while he looked horrid as a passer there was a situation there that should be factored in.  I think he went 6-1 as a starter, maybe 6-2 with the playoff loss.  He held his own as a fantasy producer even in those circumstances.  Now, the team has added some nice offensive weapons in Ingram., Hill, M.Brown, and Boykin - all players who have exhibited playmaking ability, some big time playmking ability.  

A full off season to digest an offense designed for his skillset, from a reputable coaching staff.  A year of experience.  Added playmakers.  Some big losses on D.  If you look at this logically, Jackson seems like a very good bet to outproduce his ADP and has a ceiling that is pretty sky high.  I think his floor is elevated by the rushing points, which barring an RG3-like injury should remain constant even if he makes no strides as a passer.
I'll take Trubisky over Jackson, equally as polarizing...

A matter of fact, I do not think there is a QB with more upside then Trubisky....

 
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I'll take Trubisky over Jackson, equally as polarizing...
I would too.  Far safer pick also with big upside.  Trubisky has shown already that he can excel in all aspects of the position.  I dont think he is nearly as polarizing as Jackson is and I dont think he should be.  Nor do I view him as being overvalued.  I think people see Trubisky as an up and coming QB talent.  I think many view Jackson as a no-shot bust.

 
I would too.  Far safer pick also with big upside.  Trubisky has shown already that he can excel in all aspects of the position.  I dont think he is nearly as polarizing as Jackson is and I dont think he should be.  Nor do I view him as being overvalued.  I think people see Trubisky as an up and coming QB talent.  I think many view Jackson as a no-shot bust.
Trubisky could end up a top 5 QB, Jackson not so much. You can get Trubisky very late, if drafted at all.

 
I'm wondering why you started Goff's stats at that point?  Yes, Gurley averaged 58 snaps for the first 11 weeks, but in the next 3 games he topped that every game (65, 62, and 63), so he wasn't compromised.  He had 347 total yards, 16 catches, and 4 TD's.  As a matter of fact, from weeks 1 thru 11, he never once had back to back 60 snap games.  Then he sat the last 2 weeks of the regular season.  That's where you should start Goff's stats.  And let's break down those games quickly...

vs ARI - Goff wasn't needed, only throws 24 times, completes 19 with a TD.  He also runs one in.  LAR rushed 41 times for 269 yards - LAR WINS

vs SF - Goff has a very efficient 15 for 26 with 4 TD's.  CJ Anderson carries 23 times for 132 yards and a TD, and hauls in all 3 targets - LAR WINS

Goff's QB ratings for the above 2 games are 118.1 and 121.6, well above his 101.1 average.  These ranked as his 4th and 5th best games all season, so it can be argued that he did better without Gurley than with him (yeah, I know the opponents sucked, but the argument still stands).

OK, now onto the playoffs...

vs DAL - Gurley outsnaps Anderson 45 to 34, both run well, amassing 238 yards and 3 TD's on 39 carries - Goff goes 15/28 for 186 yds and a 74.4 QBR - LAR WINS

vs NO - Anderson outsnaps Gurley 37 to 32, neither runs well (20 for 54 and 1 TD), and each only catch 1 short pass - Goff goes 25/40 for 299 yards and 1 TD - LAR WINS

vs NE - a complete ####show by the Rams - they couldn't pass or run - the team looked defeated before kickoff.  Everyone gets a mulligan for this game.

For these 3 playoff games, I dare say they would've fared better just leaving Gurley sidelined.  I can just hear Goff in the huddle now...

Goff - Hey Todd, can you handle another carry?

Gurley - I dunno.

Goff - Screw it, everyone just go out and try to get open.
If I remember correctly, it was the KC game where he first tweaked ‘something’ and it popped up as an issue publicly.  So that’s where I started from.  And you’re right in that the next game, Gurley was his same old self (after the bye week).  But with the benefit of hindsight and Gurley’s comments that his knee was an issue beginning Week 1...it felt like that instance was when Gurley’s health became a talking point.

I certainly get why people are concerned about Gurley.  But the idea that he’s just an RB...I’d disagree.  He’s a top line player and difference maker in peak form and I suspect his presence accounts in part for the high O/U figure; only one other team has a higher figure (guess who...?).  Going back to Henderson, the only way he returns value IMO is if Gurley is done.  I don’t think we’re there.

 
Trubisky could end up a top 5 QB, Jackson not so much. You can get Trubisky very late, if drafted at all.
I wont argue against Trubisky - I am a believer.  But I dont understand the notion that Jackson has no shot at finishing top 5.  Granted, its unlikely as top 5 is truly elite, but I bet he put up top 15ish numbers in the stretch that he played in last year, and that was as a 21 year old rookie in an offense not designed for him with Gus Edwards and Mark Andrews being his top playmakers on offense.  If he can improve on his passing numbers, he will become a nasty weapon with defenses having to respect his legs.  Its certainly an "if", but the possibility is there and to rule it out seems foolish to me.  

 
I wont argue against Trubisky - I am a believer.  But I dont understand the notion that Jackson has no shot at finishing top 5.  Granted, its unlikely as top 5 is truly elite, but I bet he put up top 15ish numbers in the stretch that he played in last year, and that was as a 21 year old rookie in an offense not designed for him with Gus Edwards and Mark Andrews being his top playmakers on offense.  If he can improve on his passing numbers, he will become a nasty weapon with defenses having to respect his legs.  Its certainly an "if", but the possibility is there and to rule it out seems foolish to me.  
Ok, perhaps, but he has a much higher mountain to climb. Anything is possible though.

 
Ok, perhaps, but he has a much higher mountain to climb. Anything is possible though.
Dont want to hijack this great thread and make it all about Jackson, but per Jeff Hasley (FBGs), Jackson finished as QB8 from week 13-17 last year.  Small 5-game sample size, but he scored more points than Mahomes, Luck, Wilson, Brady, and Rodgers over that stretch.  This is what I am talking about.  So many people agree with you that he has such a high mountain to climb to become elite, but from a fantasy perspective he was approaching elite in the final 5 games of the year.  He just isnt doing it the traditional way QBs do it, so people discount him as being less of a commodity than he has the true potential to be.  Lots of rookie QBs advance their passing games in their second season.  If he does, he could challenge for top 5 easily.

 
Dont want to hijack this great thread and make it all about Jackson, but per Jeff Hasley (FBGs), Jackson finished as QB8 from week 13-17 last year.  Small 5-game sample size, but he scored more points than Mahomes, Luck, Wilson, Brady, and Rodgers over that stretch.  This is what I am talking about.  So many people agree with you that he has such a high mountain to climb to become elite, but from a fantasy perspective he was approaching elite in the final 5 games of the year.  He just isnt doing it the traditional way QBs do it, so people discount him as being less of a commodity than he has the true potential to be.  Lots of rookie QBs advance their passing games in their second season.  If he does, he could challenge for top 5 easily.
✌️

 
I like the Trubisky call. Could be a very pass friendly offense with several good receiving options, including all the RBs.

 
I like the Trubisky call. Could be a very pass friendly offense with several good receiving options, including all the RBs.
It could/should be argued that last year was his rookie year plus he had a new head coach, new system and all new WR's.  He ended the season as QB15, 60 points behind QB5. He missed two games to injury, playing in only 14 games. Just saying.

 
We don't even need to cherry pick Jackson's starts from last year.  Once he took over the starting role (week 11) he finished QB11 through the rest of the year, just 15 points total short of QB5.

He ran for 556 yards and 4 TDs in 7 games once he took over the starting gig.  That's 1270/9 over the course of a season which is the equivalent of him getting a bonus FORTY FIVE passing TDs headstart in 4 pt/TD leagues.

 
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My biggest worry with Cooper is that even after he joined the Cowboys, he was still having lots of week killing games. He had a 3/36, 4/32, 4/20, 8/76 with a lost fumble and a 5/31 with a lost fumble. I mostly play standard so maybe in PPR those catches make it more bearable but in standard having a WR go 3,4,4,5,1 in just 9 games with Dallas is a worry. Those couple 30 point games are great, but is it worth the friction of dragging him around 50% of the games?

 
If I remember correctly, it was the KC game where he first tweaked ‘something’ and it popped up as an issue publicly.  So that’s where I started from.  And you’re right in that the next game, Gurley was his same old self (after the bye week).  But with the benefit of hindsight and Gurley’s comments that his knee was an issue beginning Week 1...it felt like that instance was when Gurley’s health became a talking point.

I certainly get why people are concerned about Gurley.  But the idea that he’s just an RB...I’d disagree.  He’s a top line player and difference maker in peak form and I suspect his presence accounts in part for the high O/U figure; only one other team has a higher figure (guess who...?).  Going back to Henderson, the only way he returns value IMO is if Gurley is done.  I don’t think we’re there.
I was just trying to point out that Goff's worst 3 games were all in the playoff's, and not the 5 games before that.  He actually did quite well the whole regular season.  His 3 crappy games in the playoffs may have had alot to do with the competition, or maybe the fact that they were trying to allow a hurt Gurley to continue playing.

As for him just being a RB, I completely agree with you.  A team is always better with a better RB, and he is elite.  But to suggest Vegas oddsmakers know how bad his knees are is ludicrous.  Gurley doesn't even know.   

 
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I was just trying to point out that Goff's worst 3 games were all in the playoff's, and not the 5 games before that.  He actually did quite well the whole regular season.  His 3 crappy games in the playoffs may have had alot to do with the competition, or maybe the fact that they were trying to allow a hurt Gurley to continue playing.
Do what now?

Goff's last 5 games of the regular season...

207/1/1
180/0/4
339/0/1
216/1/0
199/4/0

228 yards per game with 6 TD/6 INT.  And 3 lost fumbles to boot.

QB25 in PPG over that span.

 
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We don't even need to cherry pick Jackson's starts from last year.  Once he took over the starting role (week 11) he finished QB11 through the rest of the year, just 15 points total short of QB5.

He ran for 556 yards and 4 TDs in 7 games once he took over the starting gig.  That's 1270/9 over the course of a season which is the equivalent of him getting a bonus FORTY FIVE passing TDs headstart in 4 pt/TD leagues.
No, you don't need to cherry pick because fantasy wise Jackson has stunk, even during those 7 games. His fantasy points during that 7 game spread: 15, 22, 16, 21, 18, 17. If that's the upside you like, good luck.

 
No, you don't need to cherry pick because fantasy wise Jackson has stunk, even during those 7 games. His fantasy points during that 7 game spread: 15, 22, 16, 21, 18, 17. If that's the upside you like, good luck.
Do you even know what upside means?

Hint: It's not the low QB1 numbers he was already putting up while averaging only 150 yards and 0.8 TDs per game through the air.

 
Do what now?

Goff's last 5 games of the regular season...

207/1/1 - 68.6 QBR = bad game
180/0/4 - 19.1 QBR = oh my god awful game
339/0/1 - 75.9 QBR = bad game
216/1/0 - 118.1 QBR = very good game
199/4/0 - 121.6 QBR = very good game

228 yards per game with 6 TD/6 INT.  And 3 lost fumbles to boot.

QB25 in PPG over that span.
He also put up back to back bad games in weeks 5 & 6, but I was saying his overall season was good.

 
Great thread so far.

I would like to add Lamar Jackson to this list.  But in addition to all of the added rushing yards/TDs that he will turn into valuable fantasy points
I think you have this backwards.  His passing yards/TD's will be the addition to his rushing yards/TD's.  Do you know how many NFL starts it took him to set the all-time record for QB rushing attempts in a game?  ONE

 
It could/should be argued that last year was his rookie year plus he had a new head coach, new system and all new WR's.  He ended the season as QB15, 60 points behind QB5. He missed two games to injury, playing in only 14 games. Just saying.
It wasn't his rookie year so why should anyone argue that it was?

Trubisky made significant improvement from his rookie season. He still only threw the ball 31 times per game which over 16 games is less than 500 for the season.

As far as him playing with a new head coach thats true and Nagy was a vast improvement over Fox, so I do not see why that should be considered a negative when clearly it was a positive (and continues to be).

The Bears are a tough team to project for right now. I have made a few attempts at it. I do expect Trubisky to improve but you are a lot more optimistic of Trubisky in fantasy than I am.

 
It wasn't his rookie year so why should anyone argue that it was?

Trubisky made significant improvement from his rookie season. He still only threw the ball 31 times per game which over 16 games is less than 500 for the season.

As far as him playing with a new head coach thats true and Nagy was a vast improvement over Fox, so I do not see why that should be considered a negative when clearly it was a positive (and continues to be).

The Bears are a tough team to project for right now. I have made a few attempts at it. I do expect Trubisky to improve but you are a lot more optimistic of Trubisky in fantasy than I am.
The thread is about undervalued players, I simply think he is as undervalued as you can find. Tons of upside and I believe you have seen his floor.

 
I do not see top 5 upside for Trubisky unless the Bears defense completely falls apart. I do not think it will.
Ok, and I provided stats that shows he was 60 fantasy points away from being a top 5 QB in 2018 while missing two games to injury. From all accounts he will be a much improves QB in 2019. If he is it is attainable, if not you know his floor. I will be taking late in my drafts as my QB2. If you prefer another QB by all means draft him.

 
TheWinz said:
I was just trying to point out that Goff's worst 3 games were all in the playoff's, and not the 5 games before that.  He actually did quite well the whole regular season.  His 3 crappy games in the playoffs may have had alot to do with the competition, or maybe the fact that they were trying to allow a hurt Gurley to continue playing.

As for him just being a RB, I completely agree with you.  A team is always better with a better RB, and he is elite.  But to suggest Vegas oddsmakers know how bad his knees are is ludicrous.  Gurley doesn't even know.   
We'll have to agree to disagree on the inside knowledge access the Vegas oddsmakers have..., but:

  • Sean McVay is on record as saying Gurley is still a focal point of the offense.
  • Gurley has stated publicly that his knee issue is small, the exact quote being 'I had bigger problems coming out of college'.
  • At the time of his ACL injury, it was confirmed that he did not suffer any other damage which rules out meniscus damage/tear...which is what generally leads to arthritis
Even as it related to the comment the trainer made that was really the impetus for Gurley's FF stock to really plummet, the quote was 'Everybody knew there would be some kind of arthritic component to his knee which is part of every surgery.  He's now at the Year 5 mark, all we're doing is managing that'.  Alot of people took that to mean that - ohno, he's dealing with arthritis.  But it could also be interpreted as 'clock is ticking, this is the first off-season the Rams have had Gurley under that massive contract...so we're being smart'.

...there is actually alot more evidence to suggest its business as usual at least as the Rams head into 2019.  Yes, they drafted Henderson and McVay will figure out creative ways to use him and get him on the field.  I'd point out though that in every scouting report you read on the guy what's universally observed about him is the project he is in pass-protection. 

Like I said, we'll have to A2D, but I kind of feel the undervalued Ram RB is Gurley.

 
MooversShakers said:
I do know what upside is and Lamar Jackson has not flashed it - ever. We can agree to disagree.
In Lamar's only 7 starts he put up 152.5 points - that's an average of 21.8 PPG

In Trubisky's 14 starts last year he put up 305.25 points - that's an average of 21.8 PPG

 
MooversShakers said:
Ok, and I provided stats that shows he was 60 fantasy points away from being a top 5 QB in 2018 while missing two games to injury. From all accounts he will be a much improves QB in 2019. If he is it is attainable, if not you know his floor. I will be taking late in my drafts as my QB2. If you prefer another QB by all means draft him.
Trubisky isn't the only QB who missed games last year you know? 

Jamies WInston and Carson Wentz for example only played in 11 games. As far as end of year stats go your top 15 is 13 QB who played 16 games then Cam and Trubisky. Reasonable to think that several of the QB who finished later than Trubisky did would have surpassed him if they had played as many games.

A 60 point difference is almost 4 points per game, it is a pretty large margin.

I do like Trubisky and he may be undervalued as far as ADP right now. He would make a great QB 2 for a fantasy team.

 

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