TheDirtyWord said:
Yeah, a lot of people are saying they easily replaced him...but the final two regular season games where Anderson went off were against ARI & SF. You may have noticed they picked 1/2 this past draft and bad teams are notorious for mailing in weeks 16 & 17. Anderson’s DAL effort was impressive to be sure, but after that...not so much. And he offered absolutely nothing in the passing game.
The first 11 weeks of the season, the Rams had 751 offensive snaps. Gurley was in on 85% of them (635). In the 8 games after that including playoffs without or with a compromised Gurley...Goff put up the following.
164 Completions, 286 attempts, 1853 Passing Yards, 7 TD’s, 7 INT’s...not exactly 10.5 O/U worthy.
Now, they won’t lean on him to that degree mentioned above moving forward, but from my POV, Gurley is still the engine of that offense. Henderson is an exciting prospect to be sure, but 12 months ago, so was Ronald Jones.
Other Values
Leonard Fournette (2.11 - RB14): If you allow for the fact that he left two games by halftime in 2018, then his extrapolated numbers in a 16-game season in that dumpster fire of a season JAX had would have been 1426 (YFS)/14. That’s still Round 1 production even if it’s volume based.
James White (7.03 - RB33): The guy accounted for 1176/12 last year and he’s going this low? I know TD’s are tough to bank on and I’d expect regression year, but the ‘After Gronk Era’ In NE is going to lean more on White IMO, not less.
Robby Anderson (6.11 - WR29): If you believe in the Year 2 jump for Sam Darnold, then he’s got to develop that QB/WR1 connection. With Chris Herndon suspended the first 4 games of 2019, there is an opportunity here for Anderson to seize that role. And his per game production with theoretically lesser QB play has been solid.
Love your insights! I'm wondering about your stance on Gurley, only from the perspective of this:
are you in the camp that takes him in the 1st-2nd rounds as a stud top tier RB , or are you in the camp that says 'hey if he's there in the 4th I'll grab him" ? you're doing a great job of selling Gurley - I'm nearly convinced he's undervalued in 2019..but..for those like yourself, who think he is in fact an overlooked player, where are you considering drafting him??
for me the scenes on a bicycle last season - the playoffs and SB especially - speak so loud that Helen Keller could hear it. CJA wasn't effective in the Championship or the SB , as you point out, well, wouldn't that be the time to put Gurley in the game, then?
I dunno man, I hear what you're saying about him, I really do. but I highly doubt that Gurley Nation would draft him in the first round , or 2nd or 3rd even. I don't think they have the intestinal fortitude to pull the trigger that early. One thing he has going for him is he is far more likely to get goal-line carries than any RB in the league. So that kind of fantasy scoring goes a long way.
I like your other calls like J. White - in games without Gronk, White has been absolutely golden. They don't have a TE, he is their new Gronk. in PPR, he's invaluable. watching him pull a Larry Centers-esque season out of the air here.90+ recs.
For Trip, thanks for starting this thread. Tyler Locket will be a star of sorts this season, but temper that somewhat, Schottenheimer prefers the run over the pass by a wide margin.
I don't see how T. Hill is a undervalued, I think people will grab him in rounds 2-3 even WITH a suspension. he's not likely to make it to the 4th round. LOVE your take on Nick Chubb and the explanation about it. P. Barber is just a guy, he tries hard and all, but I'm banking on Mike Evans as being the main benefactor of the Arians regime, not Barber.Love you r take on Cooper and Winston. disagree on Jordan Reed and Josh Gordon. Reed simply cannot stay healthy - he's toxic, you just can't rely on him. Is Gordon even reinstated yet, can he play? will he make the team? he didn't do much last season in the handful of games he played. and he of all people is most likely to be suspended again - you know it's coming, it' s just a matter of when.
I'll add:
Marlon Mack - Q. Nelson was a first team all-pro last year, as a rookie. the Colts line is perhaps one of the best in the league, and they're only getting better. he's going round 3 in fantasyfootballcalculator.com drafts. he has top 5-7 RB potential and should be selected within the first 20 picks of a draft. yet he's going 3rd or 4th? wow.
Tyler Boyd - WR rank is #26th. yet most of his great stats from 2018 came from when AJ Green was IN the lineup, not out with injury. Easily top 15 performance from a guy who is a quasi #1 in Cincy ( Green is cooked, he's at the end of the trail ).
S. Michel - knee scope is overrated..A gronk-less, No-name WR team like the patriots, will likely shift to the running game in a big way.why? TB12 is soon-2-be 42 years old. No 42 yr old QB has ever thrown for more than 2k yards in a single season.TB12 is different of course, but his stats have dropped off significantly Y-o-Y last 3 seasons. Michel is going off the board round 4 in ffcalculator drafts. he probably should be off the board by the end of round two.