Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
TripItUp

Trip's Top 10 Undervalued - July Edition

Recommended Posts

Trubisky currently lacks the ceiling that I'm seeking at his current ADP.  I think he'll be average at best this year in terms of fantasy points per game.

I've heard several podcasts state he might be one of those QBs that is a better real life QB than fantasy QB, and I tend to agree with that summarization as of now.  Perhaps if he had better weapons he could jump into the next tier or two.  He's still young so plenty of time to mature and get better...time will tell but I'm not biting on him this year in redrafts or best balls.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

In Lamar's only 7 starts he put up 152.5 points - that's an average of 21.8 PPG

In Trubisky's 14 starts last year he put up 305.25 points - that's an average of 21.8 PPG

Trubisky also had some monster games, Lamar did not. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Trubisky isn't the only QB who missed games last year you know? 

Jamies WInston and Carson Wentz for example only played in 11 games. As far as end of year stats go your top 15 is 13 QB who played 16 games then Cam and Trubisky. Reasonable to think that several of the QB who finished later than Trubisky did would have surpassed him if they had played as many games.

A 60 point difference is almost 4 points per game, it is a pretty large margin.

I do like Trubisky and he may be undervalued as far as ADP right now. He would make a great QB 2 for a fantasy team.

 

 

I agree with all of this and it's to my point, trubisky is undervalued with a ton of upside....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, MooversShakers said:

Trubisky also had some monster games, Lamar did not. 

I just found it ironic that you used Trubisky's stats from 2018 as evidence of his upside, and you used Jackson's stats as evidence of no upside, when both had the same exact PPG.  Do you think Lamar has reached his peak after only 7 NFL starts?  FWIW, I would not want either as my QB1, but they both are intriguing in best ball formats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

im going to mention Emmanuel Sanders. 

it might take half the season but he still should be the top wr producer on den this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know that he will be way undervalued, but in 25 career games when Julian Edelman has played and Rob Gronkowski has not, Edelman has averaged 11.4 targets per game. Over a full season, that's 182 targets (which I admit there is decent risk that he won't stay on the field for a full season). He's averaged 7.3 receptions and 85 receiving yards in those games. His projected full season numbers would work out to 117 receptions, 1,360 yards, and 5 TD. His current ADP is in the WR 15-17 range. His PPR average was 17.72 ppg (284 points over a full season). Over the past 5 seasons, with that annual scoring total, Edelman would have ranked 9th, 7th, 5th, 3rd, and 10th.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, MooversShakers said:

Trubisky could end up a top 5 QB, Jackson not so much. You can get Trubisky very late, if drafted at all.

If you compare Jackson to Trubisky's rookie year they are very comparable.  Completion percentage was 58% to 59%.  TD passes were within one and Trubisky played most of the year.  I don't think Trubisky is that much better fantasy wise than Jackson at this point.  Give Jackson another year and see if he takes a nice step forward like Trubisky did.  They are very close comps. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I just found it ironic that you used Trubisky's stats from 2018 as evidence of his upside, and you used Jackson's stats as evidence of no upside, when both had the same exact PPG.  Do you think Lamar has reached his peak after only 7 NFL starts?  FWIW, I would not want either as my QB1, but they both are intriguing in best ball formats.

I think Lamar is on hell of a runner, I do not think he is a very good QB. I think Trubisky offers much more upside but would also not want him as my QB1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jackson's rushing ability is so insane though that he doesn't have to be a very good QB.

Jackson's rushing numbers last year over a full season are the equivalent in fantasy points of 2000 passing yards and 25 passing TDs in standard 25 yards per point, 4 point per pass TD leagues.  So if he keeps running like that he basically has a 2000 yard, 25 TD headstart on non running QBs.

So for instance if Jackson can pass for merely 3000 yards and 20 TDs that would give him the fantasy points equivalent of 5000 yards and 45 TDs compared to guys who don't run like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Big Ben, etc.

So then the question is can he develop into merely a 3000 yard, 20 TD type passer?  That's not asking a lot.  That is 187 passing yards and 1.25 passing TDs per game.  Last year as a rookie making his first starts ever he averaged 160 yards and 0.8 passing TDs per game.  That is FAR from a huge leap for a rookie to make as a passer.  If his rushing stats hold true, his upside is enormous for as long as he holds the job.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Last year's rushing offense was a grease fire.  One thing we did learn last year was that Barber >> Jones.  Arians will play the back that will help him win...that isn't Jones.

Expect improved rushing efficiency under Arians...assuming you've seen what Barber can do is a misstep IMHO.

If you make any conclusions about a RB after only 23 carries, you're doing it wrong.

Edited by tdmills

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Gally said:

If you compare Jackson to Trubisky's rookie year they are very comparable.  Completion percentage was 58% to 59%.  TD passes were within one and Trubisky played most of the year.  I don't think Trubisky is that much better fantasy wise than Jackson at this point.  Give Jackson another year and see if he takes a nice step forward like Trubisky did.  They are very close comps. 

Fair enough but Jackson is a one trick pony and will never be an NFL passer, and there is no reason or proof to believe that he ever can be. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Do you even know what upside means?

Hint: It's not the low QB1 numbers he was already putting up while averaging only 150 yards and 0.8 TDs per game through the air.

That's with record breaking pace for carries by a QB. He won't keep that up and stay upright.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Jackson's rushing ability is so insane though that he doesn't have to be a very good QB.

Jackson's rushing numbers last year over a full season are the equivalent in fantasy points of 2000 passing yards and 25 passing TDs in standard 25 yards per point, 4 point per pass TD leagues.  So if he keeps running like that he basically has a 2000 yard, 25 TD headstart on non running QBs.

So for instance if Jackson can pass for merely 3000 yards and 20 TDs that would give him the fantasy points equivalent of 5000 yards and 45 TDs compared to guys who don't run like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Big Ben, etc.

So then the question is can he develop into merely a 3000 yard, 20 TD type passer?  That's not asking a lot.  That is 187 passing yards and 1.25 passing TDs per game.  Last year as a rookie making his first starts ever he averaged 160 yards and 0.8 passing TDs per game.  That is FAR from a huge leap for a rookie to make as a passer.  If his rushing stats hold true, his upside is enormous for as long as he holds the job.

I agree that he is an insane rusher but he will never rush for 2000 yards and 25 TD's. That's pie in the sky.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Jackson's rushing ability is so insane though that he doesn't have to be a very good QB.

Jackson's rushing numbers last year over a full season are the equivalent in fantasy points of 2000 passing yards and 25 passing TDs in standard 25 yards per point, 4 point per pass TD leagues.  So if he keeps running like that he basically has a 2000 yard, 25 TD headstart on non running QBs.

So for instance if Jackson can pass for merely 3000 yards and 20 TDs that would give him the fantasy points equivalent of 5000 yards and 45 TDs compared to guys who don't run like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Big Ben, etc.

So then the question is can he develop into merely a 3000 yard, 20 TD type passer?  That's not asking a lot.  That is 187 passing yards and 1.25 passing TDs per game.  Last year as a rookie making his first starts ever he averaged 160 yards and 0.8 passing TDs per game.  That is FAR from a huge leap for a rookie to make as a passer.  If his rushing stats hold true, his upside is enormous for as long as he holds the job.

It makes you wonder what a QB could put up ppg with Jackson's running ability who could throw too........hmmmmm if only there was a QB like that........

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, MooversShakers said:

I agree that he is an insane rusher but he will never rush for 2000 yards and 25 TD's. That's pie in the sky.  

I wasn't saying he would rush for 2000 yards and 25 TDs.   I was saying his rushing pace (1290 yards and 9 TDs) on its own is worth the equivalent in fantasy points to 2000 yards and 25 TDs passing.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Yeah, a lot of people are saying they easily replaced him...but the final two regular season games where Anderson went off were against ARI & SF.  You may have noticed they picked 1/2 this past draft and bad teams are notorious for mailing in weeks 16 & 17. Anderson’s DAL effort was impressive to be sure, but after that...not so much.  And he offered absolutely nothing in the passing game.

The first 11 weeks of the season, the Rams had 751 offensive snaps.  Gurley was in on 85% of them (635).  In the 8 games after that including playoffs without or with a compromised Gurley...Goff put up the following.

164 Completions, 286 attempts, 1853 Passing Yards, 7 TD’s, 7 INT’s...not exactly 10.5 O/U worthy.

Now, they won’t lean on him to that degree mentioned above moving forward, but from my POV, Gurley is still the engine of that offense.  Henderson is an exciting prospect to be sure, but 12 months ago, so was Ronald Jones.

Other Values

Leonard Fournette (2.11 - RB14):  If you allow for the fact that he left two games by halftime in 2018, then his extrapolated numbers in a 16-game season in that dumpster fire of a season JAX had would have been 1426 (YFS)/14.  That’s still Round 1 production even if it’s volume based.

James White (7.03 - RB33):   The guy accounted for 1176/12 last year and he’s going this low?  I know TD’s are tough to bank on and I’d expect regression year, but the ‘After Gronk Era’ In NE is going to lean more on White IMO, not less.

Robby Anderson (6.11 - WR29): If you believe in the Year 2 jump for Sam Darnold, then he’s got to develop that QB/WR1 connection.  With Chris Herndon suspended the first 4 games of 2019, there is an opportunity here for Anderson to seize that role.  And his per game production with theoretically lesser QB play has been solid.

Love your insights! I'm wondering about your stance on Gurley, only from the perspective of this:

are you in the camp that takes him in the 1st-2nd rounds as a stud top tier RB , or are you in the camp that says 'hey if he's there in the 4th I'll grab him" ? you're doing a great job of selling Gurley - I'm nearly convinced he's undervalued in 2019..but..for those like yourself, who think he is in fact an overlooked player, where are you considering drafting him??

for me the scenes on a bicycle last season - the playoffs and SB especially - speak so loud that Helen Keller could hear it. CJA wasn't effective in the Championship or the SB , as you point out, well, wouldn't that be the time to put Gurley in the game, then?

I dunno man, I hear what you're saying about him, I really do.  but I highly doubt that Gurley Nation would draft him in the first round , or 2nd or 3rd even. I don't think they have the intestinal fortitude to pull the trigger that early. One thing he has going for him is he is far more likely to get goal-line carries than any RB in the league. So that kind of fantasy scoring goes a long way. 

I like your other calls like J. White - in games without Gronk, White has been absolutely golden. They don't have a TE, he is their new Gronk. in PPR, he's invaluable. watching him pull a Larry Centers-esque season out of the air here.90+ recs.

For Trip, thanks for starting this thread. Tyler Locket will be a star of sorts this season, but temper that somewhat,  Schottenheimer prefers the run over the pass by a wide margin.

I don't see how T. Hill is a undervalued, I think people will grab him in rounds 2-3 even WITH a suspension. he's not likely to make it to the 4th round. LOVE your take on Nick Chubb and the explanation about it. P. Barber is just a guy, he tries hard and all,  but I'm banking on Mike Evans as being the main benefactor of the Arians regime, not Barber.Love you r take on Cooper and Winston. disagree on Jordan Reed and Josh Gordon. Reed simply cannot stay healthy - he's toxic, you just can't rely on him. Is Gordon even reinstated yet, can he play? will he make the team? he didn't do much last season in the handful of games he played. and he of all people is most likely to  be suspended again - you know it's coming, it' s just a matter of when.

I'll add:

Marlon Mack - Q. Nelson was a first team all-pro last year, as a rookie. the Colts line is perhaps one of the best in the league, and they're only getting better. he's going round 3 in fantasyfootballcalculator.com drafts. he has top 5-7 RB potential and should be selected within the first 20 picks of a draft. yet he's going 3rd or 4th? wow.

Tyler Boyd - WR rank is #26th. yet most of his great stats from 2018 came from when AJ Green was IN the lineup, not out with injury. Easily top 15 performance from a guy who is a quasi #1 in Cincy ( Green is cooked, he's at the end of the trail ). 

S. Michel - knee scope is overrated..A gronk-less, No-name  WR team like the patriots, will likely shift to the running game in a big way.why? TB12 is soon-2-be 42 years old. No 42 yr old QB has ever thrown for more than 2k yards in a single season.TB12 is different of course, but his stats have dropped off significantly Y-o-Y last 3 seasons. Michel is going off the board round 4 in ffcalculator drafts. he probably should be off the board by the end of round two. 

Edited by Tanner9919

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Jackson's rushing ability is so insane though that he doesn't have to be a very good QB.

Jackson's rushing numbers last year over a full season are the equivalent in fantasy points of 2000 passing yards and 25 passing TDs in standard 25 yards per point, 4 point per pass TD leagues.  So if he keeps running like that he basically has a 2000 yard, 25 TD headstart on non running QBs.

So for instance if Jackson can pass for merely 3000 yards and 20 TDs that would give him the fantasy points equivalent of 5000 yards and 45 TDs compared to guys who don't run like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Big Ben, etc.

So then the question is can he develop into merely a 3000 yard, 20 TD type passer?  That's not asking a lot.  That is 187 passing yards and 1.25 passing TDs per game.  Last year as a rookie making his first starts ever he averaged 160 yards and 0.8 passing TDs per game.  That is FAR from a huge leap for a rookie to make as a passer.  If his rushing stats hold true, his upside is enormous for as long as he holds the job.

And the key point might be that he is going at #19. Not exactly a backbreaker if Jackson does not work out.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

Love your insights! I'm wondering about your stance on Gurley, only from the perspective of this:

are you in the camp that takes him in the 1st-2nd rounds as a stud top tier RB , or are you in the camp that says 'hey if he's there in the 4th I'll grab him" ? you're doing a great job of selling Gurley - I'm nearly convinced he's undervalued in 2019..but..for those like yourself, who think he is in fact an overlooked player, where are you considering drafting him??

for me the scenes on a bicycle last season - the playoffs and SB especially - speak so loud that Helen Keller could hear it. CJA wasn't effective in the Championship or the SB , as you point out, well, wouldn't that be the time to put Gurley in the game, then?

I dunno man, I hear what you're saying about him, I really do.  but I highly doubt that Gurley Nation would draft him in the first round , or 2nd or 3rd even. I don't think they have the intestinal fortitude to pull the trigger that early. One thing he has going for him is he is far more likely to get goal-line carries than any RB in the league. So that kind of fantasy scoring goes a long way. 

I like your other calls like J. White - in games without Gronk, White has been absolutely golden. They don't have a TE, he is their new Gronk. in PPR, he's invaluable. watching him pull a Larry Centers-esque season out of the air here.90+ recs.

For Trip, thanks for starting this thread. Tyler Locket will be a star of sorts this season, but temper that somewhat,  Schottenheimer prefers the run over the pass by a wide margin.

I don't see how T. Hill is a undervalued, I think people will grab him in rounds 2-3 even WITH a suspension. he's not likely to make it to the 4th round. LOVE your take on Nick Chubb and the explanation about it. P. Barber is just a guy, he tries hard and all,  but I'm banking on Mike Evans as being the main benefactor of the Arians regime, not Barber.Love you r take on Cooper and Winston. disagree on Jordan Reed and Josh Gordon. Reed simply cannot stay healthy - he's toxic, you just can't rely on him. Is Gordon even reinstated yet, can he play? will he make the team? he didn't do much last season in the handful of games he played. and he of all people is most likely to  be suspended again - you know it's coming, it' s just a matter of when.

I'll add:

Marlon Mack - Q. Nelson was a first team all-pro last year, as a rookie. the Colts line is perhaps one of the best in the league, and they're only getting better. he's going round 3 in fantasyfootballcalculator.com drafts. he has top 5-7 RB potential and should be selected within the first 20 picks of a draft. yet he's going 3rd or 4th? wow.

Tyler Boyd - WR rank is #26th. yet most of his great stats from 2018 came from when AJ Green was IN the lineup, not out with injury. Easily top 15 performance from a guy who is a quasi #1 in Cincy ( Green is cooked, he's at the end of the trail ). 

S. Michel - knee scope is overrated..A gronk-less, No-name  WR team like the patriots, will likely shift to the running game in a big way.why? TB12 is soon-2-be 42 years old. No 42 yr old QB has ever thrown for more than 2k yards in a single season.TB12 is different of course, but his stats have dropped off significantly Y-o-Y last 3 seasons. Michel is going off the board round 4 in ffcalculator drafts. he probably should be off the board by the end of round two. 

How can Mack have top 5-7 RB potential when he's barely involved at all in the passing game? People are acting like he's a true workhorse back and he simply isn't. Mack to me is a lot like Derrick Henry - they should have very good years because they are the primary backs on their team and will get good volume, but they are very game script dependant, which for me necessarily lowers their ceiling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trip-- love your insight. Always look for your opinions. Question about Nick Chubb. How much of a chubby do you have for him ? (pardon the pun). I know his ADP is 21, but I am sure that number will drop as the season approaches. In your mind, is he a late 1st round pick ? Would hate to be waiting on him for early 2nd, only to have someone steal him with the first or second picks of the 2nd round. And assuming he is a late 1st rounder, how critical is it to handcuff him with Hunt ? 

 

P.S. "I wanna party with you, cowboy !"

Edited by Keith1
Threw in the Stripes/Bill Murray quote
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tanner9919 said:

Love your insights! I'm wondering about your stance on Gurley, only from the perspective of this:

are you in the camp that takes him in the 1st-2nd rounds as a stud top tier RB , or are you in the camp that says 'hey if he's there in the 4th I'll grab him" ? you're doing a great job of selling Gurley - I'm nearly convinced he's undervalued in 2019..but..for those like yourself, who think he is in fact an overlooked player, where are you considering drafting him??

for me the scenes on a bicycle last season - the playoffs and SB especially - speak so loud that Helen Keller could hear it. CJA wasn't effective in the Championship or the SB , as you point out, well, wouldn't that be the time to put Gurley in the game, then?

I dunno man, I hear what you're saying about him, I really do.  but I highly doubt that Gurley Nation would draft him in the first round , or 2nd or 3rd even. I don't think they have the intestinal fortitude to pull the trigger that early. One thing he has going for him is he is far more likely to get goal-line carries than any RB in the league. So that kind of fantasy scoring goes a long way. 

I like your other calls like J. White - in games without Gronk, White has been absolutely golden. They don't have a TE, he is their new Gronk. in PPR, he's invaluable. watching him pull a Larry Centers-esque season out of the air here.90+ recs.

Appreciate it.

My original point pertained to the notion of Henderson being undervalued...and right now he’s going ahead of both Tarik Cohen and James White; RB’s that have established and defined roles not to mention a track record of very good performance.  Henderson could be one of those guys, but in order to be better than them, Gurley has to be gone.  

As for Gurley...I’m not going to pay more than I have to, but for the reasons already laid out, I feel pretty good about him - Round 2 would be my target.  Vegas may not not have definitive info on his knee being healthy, but they are not hearing that it’s not healthy.  In this case, no news is good news.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, TheWinz said:

I'm wondering why you started Goff's stats at that point?  Yes, Gurley averaged 58 snaps for the first 11 weeks, but in the next 3 games he topped that every game (65, 62, and 63), so he wasn't compromised.  He had 347 total yards, 16 catches, and 4 TD's.  As a matter of fact, from weeks 1 thru 11, he never once had back to back 60 snap games.  Then he sat the last 2 weeks of the regular season.  That's where you should start Goff's stats.  And let's break down those games quickly...

vs ARI - Goff wasn't needed, only throws 24 times, completes 19 with a TD.  He also runs one in.  LAR rushed 41 times for 269 yards - LAR WINS

vs SF - Goff has a very efficient 15 for 26 with 4 TD's.  CJ Anderson carries 23 times for 132 yards and a TD, and hauls in all 3 targets - LAR WINS

Goff's QB ratings for the above 2 games are 118.1 and 121.6, well above his 101.1 average.  These ranked as his 4th and 5th best games all season, so it can be argued that he did better without Gurley than with him (yeah, I know the opponents sucked, but the argument still stands).

OK, now onto the playoffs...

vs DAL - Gurley outsnaps Anderson 45 to 34, both run well, amassing 238 yards and 3 TD's on 39 carries - Goff goes 15/28 for 186 yds and a 74.4 QBR - LAR WINS

vs NO - Anderson outsnaps Gurley 37 to 32, neither runs well (20 for 54 and 1 TD), and each only catch 1 short pass - Goff goes 25/40 for 299 yards and 1 TD - LAR WINS

vs NE - a complete ####show by the Rams - they couldn't pass or run - the team looked defeated before kickoff.  Everyone gets a mulligan for this game.

For these 3 playoff games, I dare say they would've fared better just leaving Gurley sidelined.  I can just hear Goff in the huddle now...

Goff - Hey Todd, can you handle another carry?

Gurley - I dunno.

Goff - Screw it, everyone just go out and try to get open.

Goff was much more effected by the loss of Kupp then he was by any injury Gurley suffered.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

My biggest worry with Cooper is that even after he joined the Cowboys, he was still having lots of week killing games. He had a 3/36, 4/32, 4/20, 8/76 with a lost fumble and a 5/31 with a lost fumble. I mostly play standard so maybe in PPR those catches make it more bearable but in standard having a WR go 3,4,4,5,1 in just 9 games with Dallas is a worry. Those couple 30 point games are great, but is it worth the friction of dragging him around 50% of the games?

excellent point, although I expect the consistency to improve in year 2. 

Remember, he was learning the playbook last year after a midseason trade.  I don't count those first 3 games.

Edited by TripItUp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Keith1 said:

Trip-- love your insight. Always look for your opinions. Question about Nick Chubb. How much of a chubby do you have for him ? (pardon the pun). I know his ADP is 21, but I am sure that number will drop as the season approaches. In your mind, is he a late 1st round pick ? Would hate to be waiting on him for early 2nd, only to have someone steal him with the first or second picks of the 2nd round. And assuming he is a late 1st rounder, how critical is it to handcuff him with Hunt ? 

 

P.S. "I wanna party with you, cowboy !"

I have him ranked RB6.  So I typically would take him around the 1/2 turn but you don't need to take him that high as he's going mid to late 2nd.  The shark move is to trade down in the 2nd and get him around 2.06.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Appreciate it.

My original point pertained to the notion of Henderson being undervalued...and right now he’s going ahead of both Tarik Cohen and James White; RB’s that have established and defined roles not to mention a track record of very good performance.  Henderson could be one of those guys, but in order to be better than them, Gurley has to be gone.  

I disagree with that conclusion.

There is a path to top 10 RB value if Gurley touches are limited and Henderson takes on a Kamara role.(a comparison already made by Rams coaches)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TheDirtyWord said:

 

As for Gurley...I’m not going to pay more than I have to, but for the reasons already laid out, I feel pretty good about him - Round 2 would be my target.  Vegas may not not have definitive info on his knee being healthy, but they are not hearing that it’s not healthy.  In this case, no news is good news.

 

what are your projections for Gurley this year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RushHour said:

How can Mack have top 5-7 RB potential when he's barely involved at all in the passing game? People are acting like he's a true workhorse back and he simply isn't. Mack to me is a lot like Derrick Henry - they should have very good years because they are the primary backs on their team and will get good volume, but they are very game script dependant, which for me necessarily lowers their ceiling.

Henry not the best comparison.

A) Colts Offense > Titans Offense

B) He averaged more receptions per game than Henry

C) Colts are on the record that they want Mack to "carry the load" this year

D) Mack was drastically more consistent than Henry

 

Mack is in a clear tier above Henry for the above reasons IMHO.

 

All of that being said, I agree that Mack's upside is capped because of the lack of receptions, which I believe was your larger point  :hifive:

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, grateful zed said:

im going to mention Emmanuel Sanders. 

it might take half the season but he still should be the top wr producer on den this year.

It would be the fastest recovery from an achilles ever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I do not see top 5 upside for Trubisky unless the Bears defense completely falls apart. I do not think it will.

Agreed.  particularly with those lackluster weapons.  Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce aren't walking through that door.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

excellent point, although I expect the consistency to improve in year 2. 

Remember, he was learning the playbook last year after a midseason trade.  I don't count those first 3 games.

I think he can be more consistent but that was also his MO with the Raiders for his whole career. It makes me nervous. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I think he can be more consistent but that was also his MO with the Raiders for his whole career. It makes me nervous. 

That’s fair, although Raiders have been a grease fire since forever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding Lamar Jackson, it's worth noting a few things:

  1. He started 8 games. Using a sample size less than all 8 games is effectively cherry picking, whether intentional or not. The fact that his 8th game was dreadful illustrates this.
  2. In those 8 games, he had a lot of negative plays - 19 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 12 fumbles. He also only threw for 200 yards 1 time and had just 7 passing TDs. He is going to have to improve a lot to hold onto his job.
  3. It is also true that only 1 team faced him twice during his stretch as the starter. That team was the Chargers, which made him look terrible despite missing 5 defensive starters in that game, including both DTs and their best 2 LBs at defending the run.
Edited by Just Win Baby
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

It would be the fastest recovery from an achilles ever.

Demaryius Thomas tore his achilles in February and was playing week 7 of the same year.  He was a strong WR1 week 13 on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Demaryius Thomas tore his achilles in February and was playing week 7 of the same year.  He was a strong WR1 week 13 on.

exactly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Regarding Lamar Jackson, it's worth noting a few things:

  1. He started 8 games. Using a sample size less than all 8 games is effectively cherry picking, whether intentional or not. The fact that his 8th game was dreadful illustrates this.
  2. In those 8 games, he had a lot of negative plays - 19 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 12 fumbles. He also only threw for 200 yards 1 time and had just 7 passing TDs. He is going to have to improve a lot to hold onto his job.
  3. It is also true that only 1 team faced him twice during his stretch as the starter. That team was the Chargers, which made him look terrible despite missing 5 defensive starters in that game, including both DTs and their best 2 LBs at defending the run.

As for point 1 above, you are right.  I was only looking at his regular season stats.  Omitting his playoff game was unintentional, but then again, the standard for stats is to only use the regular season.  If not, we need to say Gurley was RB1 instead of RB3, and Michael Thomas was WR1 instead of WR6.

As for point 2, I disagree he has to improve a lot to hold onto his job.  BAL is 100% invested in being a run-first team, as evidenced by their choice of backups RG3 and McSorley, both of whom are well-known running QB's.  Even if his passing chops do not improve, he will still keep his job.

As for point 3, thanx, because I am a Chargers nut

And for my own point, I think he will get injured running before he develops into a competent passer.  His career will be short lived. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, MooversShakers said:

I agree that he is an insane rusher but he will never rush for 2000 yards and 25 TD's. That's pie in the sky.  

Re-read what he wrote.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Demaryius Thomas tore his achilles in February and was playing week 7 of the same year.  He was a strong WR1 week 13 on.

 

7 hours ago, TripItUp said:

exactly

True- that was super fast. He was also 24. I would be hesitant to make any comparisons to a 32 year old Sanders. However, signs are looking optimistic at the moment.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Do what now?

Goff's last 5 games of the regular season...

207/1/1
180/0/4
339/0/1
216/1/0
199/4/0

228 yards per game with 6 TD/6 INT.  And 3 lost fumbles to boot.

QB25 in PPG over that span.

Goff has a gorgeous early season schedule next year- I don't love Goff alone but his ADP and schedule is a nice combo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, MooversShakers said:

I did, my bad, but doe not change my belief that Jackson will never be a good NFL quarterback, fantasy or otherwise.

I have my doubts about his passing abilities as well, but saying things like he "will never be an NFL passer, and there is no reason or proof to believe that he ever can be" is going a little overboard. Sure there are reasons (he was a fairly prolific passer in college, he was drafted in Round 1 by a very astute organization, Matt Waldman called him the best pocket passer in that draft class) and as far as "proof" what could anyone offer until he does it that would satisfy that?

The bottom line for re-draft purposes he's worth taking a shot on in later rounds because he will certainly hold onto the job for this full season and those rushing stats add up quickly for QBs. Now if we're talking dynasty, sure those rushing stats become meaningless if he never develops as a passer because he will be injured and/or replaced eventually if all he can do is run.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, TripItUp said:

I disagree with that conclusion.

There is a path to top 10 RB value if Gurley touches are limited and Henderson takes on a Kamara role.(a comparison already made by Rams coaches)

Couple of things on the Kamara comps.  1) The #2 WR on the Saints in 2017 was Ted Ginn Jr.. in 2018 it was Tre’Quan Smith.  The Rams stable of pass catchers alone will cut into such a roles volume not to mention Gurley’s prowess in this area.  Kamara catches 80 balls/season.  2) In order to come close to Top 10 value, he’ll need TD’s.  Does Henderson start splitting inside the 5 carries?  I mean, Gurley’s the best in the business in this part of the field.

When Gurley’s workload reduction is discussed/projected/limits, I just think a lot of folks are overreacting.  The first half of 2018, Gurley averaged 25 touches/game.  You could reduce that number by 20% (not an insignificant reduction) and he would project out to a 320 touch 16 game pace.

11 hours ago, TripItUp said:

what are your projections for Gurley this year?

Right now, I think 1600 (YFS)/12-14 is realistic if he plays 16 games.  I get the ‘if’ part.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I have my doubts about his passing abilities as well, but saying things like he "will never be an NFL passer, and there is no reason or proof to believe that he ever can be" is going a little overboard. Sure there are reasons (he was a fairly prolific passer in college, he was drafted in Round 1 by a very astute organization, Matt Waldman called him the best pocket passer in that draft class) and as far as "proof" what could anyone offer until he does it that would satisfy that?

The bottom line for re-draft purposes he's worth taking a shot on in later rounds because he will certainly hold onto the job for this full season and those rushing stats add up quickly for QBs. Now if we're talking dynasty, sure those rushing stats become meaningless if he never develops as a passer because he will be injured and/or replaced eventually if all he can do is run.

There are some stats that were positive for Lamar. His 7.1 ypa was the best for any rookie last year except Baker. His 84.5 was the best QBR of any rookie QB except Baker. His 58.2% completion % was also 2nd to Baker. So I don't think it is clear at all where his career will go. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/17/2019 at 9:59 PM, TripItUp said:

Top 5 Undervalued PPR/Redraft based on FF Calculator ADP (June 17 - July 17)

 

10. Josh Gordon(>15.04) - Going near the end of drafts, Gordon was WR#26 PPG last year and there is no Gronk this year.  We have no idea what his status is with the NFL, but he's more than worth the dice roll at his current price tag.   

Just stop.  No he is not. 

Edited by pantherclub
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I have my doubts about his passing abilities as well, but saying things like he "will never be an NFL passer, and there is no reason or proof to believe that he ever can be" is going a little overboard. Sure there are reasons (he was a fairly prolific passer in college, he was drafted in Round 1 by a very astute organization, Matt Waldman called him the best pocket passer in that draft class) and as far as "proof" what could anyone offer until he does it that would satisfy that?

The bottom line for re-draft purposes he's worth taking a shot on in later rounds because he will certainly hold onto the job for this full season and those rushing stats add up quickly for QBs. Now if we're talking dynasty, sure those rushing stats become meaningless if he never develops as a passer because he will be injured and/or replaced eventually if all he can do is run.

He has never finished a season with a completion percentage above 59% as a QB - not in high school, not in college and not in the NFL. That is why I made that statement "there is no reason or proof to believe that he ever can be". And, I think you have it backwards - redraft no, dynasty yes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, MooversShakers said:

He has never finished a season with a completion percentage above 59% as a QB - not in high school, not in college and not in the NFL. That is why I made that statement "there is no reason or proof to believe that he ever can be". And, I think you have it backwards - redraft no, dynasty yes.

I didn't say "no" to dynasty. You don't read things carefully enough before responding.

What I basically said is his long term value (dynasty) surely depends on him developing as a passer. In the short term (this upcoming season) there is basically a zero percent chance he'll be replaced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I didn't say "no" to dynasty. You don't read things carefully enough before responding.

What I basically said is his long term value (dynasty) surely depends on him developing as a passer. In the short term (this upcoming season) there is basically a zero percent chance he'll be replaced.

Like I said, no on redraft, yes on dynasty...  :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/17/2019 at 10:25 PM, TripItUp said:

Winston may never be an elite NFL QB, but he is going to put up some monster fantasy numbers with Arians and that receiving core.

Rode the Winston/Fitzpatrick train for much of last season for peanuts, with great results. Spend almost zero capital on them.

Will do the same this year.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I have my doubts about his passing abilities as well, but saying things like he "will never be an NFL passer, and there is no reason or proof to believe that he ever can be" is going a little overboard. Sure there are reasons (he was a fairly prolific passer in college, he was drafted in Round 1 by a very astute organization, Matt Waldman called him the best pocket passer in that draft class) and as far as "proof" what could anyone offer until he does it that would satisfy that?

The bottom line for re-draft purposes he's worth taking a shot on in later rounds because he will certainly hold onto the job for this full season and those rushing stats add up quickly for QBs. Now if we're talking dynasty, sure those rushing stats become meaningless if he never develops as a passer because he will be injured and/or replaced eventually if all he can do is run.

This.

He's a great high ceiling QB to use as your #2, paring with a more consistent QB, such as Ben/Rivers/Brees. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ack88 said:

Rode the Winston/Fitzpatrick train for much of last season for peanuts, with great results. Spend almost zero capital on them.

Will do the same this year.

In my team QB league, they were in the top 3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ack88 said:

Rode the Winston/Fitzpatrick train for much of last season for peanuts, with great results. Spend almost zero capital on them.

Will do the same this year.

WHich 2 are your Fitz/Winston for this year then?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.