It’s not based on wishful thinking.
This election is going to be decided in 3 states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Trump won all 3 by the smallest of margins, mainly because suburban women who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 abandoned Hillary. In 2018 they went back to the Democrats in a big way. Per exit polling in 2018 they regret having voted for Trump. They are liberal leaning but not leftist; they are centrist and independent. They like Obamacare but are wary of Medicare for All. They want to fight climate change but are wary of Green New Deal. They detest Trump’s racism and misogyny.
So this isn’t that difficult a formula. The Dems need to avoid nominating a progressive candidate. No Medicare for All. No Green New Deal. A middle of the roader who will bring decency and stability back. Right now that’s Biden or Harris. If they do that they should win easily. If they don’t...
Was talking with my friend about this yesterday. (Same one that I spoke about here on the immigration stuff recently).
He's a political junkie. Super smart. Leans very conservative and is strongly anti-Trump. He's a very strong Christian and is appalled at how many Christians seem to be throwing their beliefs aside in the pursuit of political power.
His take on the recent stuff with the "go back home" was basically: "It's awful. He'll catch a ton of heat for it." Obviously, that's been the case.
But he said he thought Trump's political instincts were spot on. He's playing the "love it or leave it" card. Which is not new. And what he thinks is the midwestern voters who might possibly vote Trump in 2020 will flock to that "We're for America and if you're not - go away". thing. Specifically the three states you mention. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.
He said in his opinion, there's a ton of fear there. It's the talk brought up about "they're just biding their time and building their base until they have the power to force Sharia law" stuff that's flared up in the past.
His take (again he is Anti Trump) is that the when people see the threat of that kind of thing, they want the "strong" guy to deal with it. Not the guy (or woman) that is perceived to be soft and welcoming. They want the tough guy not afraid to take the heat.
FWIW, his take on Trump is that he's way more "nativist" (is that a word) than racist. In his opinion, If you're a flag waving, America first voter, he's all about you. Doesn't matter if you're Black / Gay / Asian / Whatever. On the other hand, if you're white, male and Christian and are super critical of him or the policies, then he's all against you. I have no idea if that's true. But that was his take.
So bottom line, his take away from the "go back home" stuff was it's ugly and it'll no doubt be painful for him, but the voters in the states he needs to win will resonate with it.
FWIW.