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332-95 (1 Viewer)

It’s not based on wishful thinking. 

This election is going to be decided in 3 states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Trump won all 3 by the smallest of margins, mainly because suburban women who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 abandoned Hillary. In 2018 they went back to the Democrats in a big way. Per exit polling in 2018 they regret having voted for Trump. They are liberal leaning but not leftist; they are centrist and independent. They like Obamacare but are wary of Medicare for All. They want to fight climate change but are wary of Green New Deal. They detest Trump’s racism and misogyny.

So this isn’t that difficult a formula. The Dems need to avoid nominating a progressive candidate. No Medicare for All. No  Green New Deal. A middle of the roader who will bring decency and stability back. Right now that’s Biden or Harris. If they do that they should win easily. If they don’t...
FWIW, the 2020 DNC is in Milwaukee

 
This election is going to be decided in 3 states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Trump won all 3 by the smallest of margins, mainly because suburban women who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 abandoned Hillary.
Why did you exclude Florida from your list of states where the election is going to be decided?  

Trump also won that state by a slim margin, and that state has recently seen exceptionally close Gubernatorial and Senate races as well.  

Since the 2016 election Florida has passed a law allowing felons who’ve served their sentences to vote (100,000+ people), and the state has seen demographic shifts with an influx of Puerto Rican’s who fled that island after it was devastated by a hurricane.

Most importantly, Florida has more electoral votes than the states you listed.  

So why exclude Florida?

 
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I think your friend is mostly right. But I would be interested in hearing your friend's explanation for why Trump has never told a white citizen that they're not from America, or why he's never told a white citizen to go back to whatever country their ancestors came from.

(A true nativist would show equal amounts of intolerance to white immigrants, IMO.)
That's a fair question. I think maybe it's an opportunity thing. If there was a white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump (as the 4 women in question are), I can easily see him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare. 

 
I think your friend is mostly right. But I would be interested in hearing your friend's explanation for why Trump has never told a white citizen that they're not from America, or why he's never told a white citizen to go back to whatever country their ancestors came from.

(A true nativist would show equal amounts of intolerance to white immigrants, IMO.)
That's a fair question. I think maybe it's an opportunity thing. If there was a white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump (as the 4 women in question are), I can easily see him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare. 
Ayanna Pressley's ancestry is more American than Trump's own ancestry. In fact it's quite likely that some of (if not all of) her ancestors were here before the United States even existed.

And yet Trump told her that she's not from America.

There have been many white people who have criticized Trump. But not once has Trump ever stated that any of them weren't from America or that they should go back to where they came from.

 
That's a fair question. I think maybe it's an opportunity thing. If there was a white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump (as the 4 women in question are), I can easily see him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare. 
Cortez, Pressley and Tlaib were born in America.

 
I don't really see how laying out all the impeachable offenses in public congressional hearings would increase his odds of being re-elected.
That makes two of us.

Seems to me it's a Republican talking point that Democrats are believing for some reason.

How bout this? We don't impeach and he still wins. Then we can all look back and complain the Dems didn't do their sworn duty when they had the chance.

My party might be right on a lot of the issues, but they really don't know how to play the game. No backbone whatsoever.

 
That's a fair question. I think maybe it's an opportunity thing. If there was a white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump (as the 4 women in question are), I can easily see him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare. 
Cortez, Pressley and Tlaib were born in America.
Ocasio-Cortez's parents and grandparents were natural-born American citizens.

Pressley's ancestors were American-born as far back as records can be found.

They are both more native than Trump.

 
My party might be right on a lot of the issues, but they really don't know how to play the game. No backbone whatsoever.
Supporters of the Democrat Party as well as supporters of the Republican Party feel the exact same as you about their respective party.  Perhaps even the majority in both instances.

 
Why did you exclude Florida from your list of states where the election is going to be decided?  

Trump also won that state by a slim margin, and that state has recently seen exceptionally close Gubernatorial and Senate races as well.  

Since the 2016 election Florida has passed a law allowing felons who’ve served their sentences to vote (100,000+ people), and the state has seen demographic shifts with an influx of Puerto Rican’s who fled that island after it was devastated by a hurricane.

Most importantly, Florida has more electoral votes than the states you listed.  

So why exclude Florida?
If Florida goes for the Democrat then Trump is probably lost. 

But I exclude it because in 2018 it stayed red so I figure it will again. 

 
I don't really see how laying out all the impeachable offenses in public congressional hearings would increase his odds of being re-elected.
It's not going to lower it because it's been proven that his base does not care at all.

 
In 2016 some people voted for Trump that weren't "his base."  Those people might care.
All I know is that I'm not getting my hoped up that this crap is going to lose him the election.  It hasn't seemed to make much of a difference so far.  I've lost faith in the public to vote him out.

 
Ayanna Pressley's ancestry is more American than Trump's own ancestry. In fact it's quite likely that some of (if not all of) her ancestors were here before the United States even existed.

And yet Trump told her that she's not from America.

There have been many white people who have criticized Trump. But not once has Trump ever stated that any of them weren't from America or that they should go back to where they came from.
Not arguing that.

If there was a white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump, could you envision him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare?

 
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Cortez, Pressley and Tlaib were born in America.
:confused:  Of course. Is anyone arguing otherwise? Omar was not born in the US and then became a US Citizen, right?

I didn't watch it but I understood the comments last night were mostly about her. 

Washington Post   At rally, crowd responds to Trump’s criticism of Somali-born congresswoman Ilhan Omar with chants of ‘Send her back!’

Or am I missing what you're trying to correct me on?

Looking back, I see that wasn't clear when I said "as those four women are". I meant smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump. 

I assume everyone knew three were born here and Omar was the only one not born in the US. 

 
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:confused:  Of course. Is anyone arguing otherwise? Omar was not born in the US and then became a US Citizen, right?

I didn't watch it but I understood the comments last night were mostly about her. 

Washington Post   At rally, crowd responds to Trump’s criticism of Somali-born congresswoman Ilhan Omar with chants of ‘Send her back!’

Or am I missing what you're trying to correct me on?

Looking back, I see that wasn't clear when I said "as those four women are". I meant smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump. 

I assume everyone knew three were born here and Omar was the only one not born in the US. 
Correct came when she was 10 I believe...as a refugee from a country torn apart by war.

 
Ayanna Pressley's ancestry is more American than Trump's own ancestry. In fact it's quite likely that some of (if not all of) her ancestors were here before the United States even existed.

And yet Trump told her that she's not from America.

There have been many white people who have criticized Trump. But not once has Trump ever stated that any of them weren't from America or that they should go back to where they came from.
Not arguing that.

If there was a white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump (as the 4 women in question are), could you envision him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare?
Joe, the whole point is that Trump didn't only target Congresswomen who were born in other countries. He targeted Congresswomen who were born in America, including one (Pressley) whose ancestry is more American than Trump's.

If you want to compare just Ilhan Omar to a hypothetical white Congressperson born in Canada, that's fine. (But former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm checks most of the boxes you brought up -- white, Democratic, born in Canada, now a US citizen, smart, feisty, extremely critical of Trump -- and not once has Trump told her to go back to Canada. Debbie_Mucarsel-Powell has light skin, is a Democrat Congressperson, was born in another country, is now a US citizen, is smart and feisty and extremely critical of Trump, and Trump hasn't told her to go back where she came from, either.)

Trump has had many opportunities to tell white critics to go back to another country. And yet he's never, ever, ever done it -- not when the critic wasn't born in the United States (Ted Cruz, John McCain, Jennifer Granholm, Debbie Muscarsel-Powell, etc.), and not when the critic was born in the United States.

 
timschochet said:
The vote was to table the impeachment proposal. The impeachment proposal was not for the Russia scandal but for Trump’s comments on Sunday; IMO, those comments, while vile, are not worthy of impeachment. 
Wait a minute....so you're telling me they're wasting their time trying to impeach him over some Twitter comments? Please tell me you're joking. Stretch Armstrong himself couldn't reach as far as they're trying if that's really the case.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Not arguing that.

If there was a white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump, could you envision him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare?
Yes.

But if there was a white Democratic congresswoman from New Hampshire I couldn't envision him telling her to go back to Canada. But if she were brown skinned from New Hampshire I could see him telling her to go back to Mexico. And that's the point. You're friend is right in that he is friendly to people who are friendly to him, including minorities. But of the people who are NOT friendly to him, he treats minorities differently, in a bigoted fashion.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
All I know is that I'm not getting my hoped up that this crap is going to lose him the election.  It hasn't seemed to make much of a difference so far.  I've lost faith in the public to vote him out.
The public hasn't had the chance to vote him out yet. 

 
The public hasn't had the chance to vote him out yet. 
I know and I don't feel good about it happening.  They knew who he was when they voted him in and now they just ignore all the crap he's done.  As long as there are jobs and the economy is doing well they are going to want him re-elected.

 
Misfit said:
I hate when people say this to justify voting for an atrocious politician.
I'll be voting for a Democrat I probably don't support much in 2020 because the Republicans have a crappy candidate.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Not arguing that.

If there was a white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump, could you envision him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare?
No, and in my mind that supports the allegation that Trump is a racist

 
I'll be voting for a Democrat I probably don't support much in 2020 because the Republicans have a crappy candidate.
Me too.  I hate this crap.

I will definitely be holding my nose at the ballot box while I vote for someone I fundamentally disagree with on like 75% of their platform just to get Trump out of office.

I posted months before the primary last time that my nightmare scenario was Trump vs. Hillary.  There isn't a "nightmare" candidate on the Dem side right now, and my preference is Bernie, but I'm pretty sure I'll vote for whoever it is.  Just wish I had a chance to oust Trump in the primary.

 
[scooter] said:
Joe, the whole point is that Trump didn't only target Congresswomen who were born in other countries. He targeted Congresswomen who were born in America, including one (Pressley) whose ancestry is more American than Trump's.

If you want to compare just Ilhan Omar to a hypothetical white Congressperson born in Canada, that's fine. (But former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm checks most of the boxes you brought up -- white, Democratic, born in Canada, now a US citizen, smart, feisty, extremely critical of Trump -- and not once has Trump told her to go back to Canada. Debbie_Mucarsel-Powell has light skin, is a Democrat Congressperson, was born in another country, is now a US citizen, is smart and feisty and extremely critical of Trump, and Trump hasn't told her to go back where she came from, either.)

Trump has had many opportunities to tell white critics to go back to another country. And yet he's never, ever, ever done it -- not when the critic wasn't born in the United States (Ted Cruz, John McCain, Jennifer Granholm, Debbie Muscarsel-Powell, etc.), and not when the critic was born in the United States.
If there was a 35 year old white democratic congresswoman born in Canada but now a US citizen and she was smart and feisty and popular and extremely critical of Trump, could you envision him telling her to go back to Canada and say they should fix their "failing" healthcare?

 
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Misfit said:
I think it's interesting that he is telling Americans who have issues with their government that they can leave, but is telling asylum seekers who have issues with their governments that they should stay in their own countries to fix them.
That’s a fantastic point.  I’m surprised no Democrat has raised it because it would be interesting to see how Trump or his handlers would address it, if they addressed it at all.

 
Oh I'm sure a lot of polls will disagree. I think that's kind of his point. 
His point is that polls are wrong?

ETA: Not getting that fromt he statement you quoted. He appeared to be saying he opposite

 
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Interesting. A bit science denying (polls don't matter). A bit deflecting (nativist vs racist, and I don't support Trump but I defend him anyway). I could name a few posters that sound like him (does he claim to have voted for Gary Johnson? ;)  )

2020 will show if there are enough of the same ilk to keep Trump in power.

 

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