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Best spot to draft from in 12 team leagues this year (1 Viewer)

R

rickyg

Footballguy
Forgive me if there is a thread like this already for this season I tried searching but didn’t find.  

If you could choose whatever pick you wanted (or area of the 1st rd - early, middle, late) in your draft his year, why would it be and what is your reasoning?

im actually thinking that the 12 pick might be great this year BC you might be able to go mixon/Chubb or one of those and a top WR.  

 
i've done a bunch of footballguys, give me 1-4 every time, 5-6 is acceptable and then the later the pick the worse it is. I strongly prefer starting with one of the top 4 backs and i'm not in love with a lot of the guys going late 1st early 2nd

 
Closer to the top is almost always better unless you're doing a 3RR.... that's when it comes into conversation.

In non ppr this year there's a pretty clear top 4, so getting one of them is nice.  Sure your 2nd round pick suffers, but your 3rd rounder greatly improves.  Grab near the top and secure one of the big 4.  PPR or 3RR is the only time anything would differ from that.

 
I want either 1-4 or 9-12. I have done two drafts already, drafting at 5 and 6, and it feels like you are always 1-2 picks after a tier drop off for the first 3 or 4 rounds in the middle. 

 
My league is weird.  Standard scoring.  Waiver priority goes reverse order of draft. So 12th pick automatically starts off the season w/ the #1 waiver spot.  There’s value in that.  

But when I look at the top guys like zeke, saquan, cmc and Kamara...does anyone really think Chubb on that Cleveland offense can’t hang with them?  Maybe even mixon or Calvin cook.  Maybe devonta  freeman.   They come with more risk but likely close to the same upside.  And you can get them with the 12th pick.  Then turn around and head a davante Adams or Julio or mike Thomas.  That’s a nice way to start a draft.  

If you take the 1 pick or 2 pick you’re looking at saquan or zeke and your wr1 will have question marks.  Guys like AB or mike Evans.  

 
#3 or #4. Start with CMC or Kamara and have a chance to snag a WR1 like OBJ or Juju coming around.

 
I hate the middle.  I want an end so give me 1-3 or 10-12.  Any time I am I. The middle my teams seem disjointed.  I like being on an end to pair my picks better and it seems to lead to a more consistent team.

 
Any, if you do your research right. I always prefer a top 3, and if you work the ADP, someone will invariably fall to you as a solid 2.10-2.12 pick. 

But any position can be solid. Just know who you love; do your rankings & grab your favorites wherever you land.  

 
Gally said:
I hate the middle.  I want an end so give me 1-3 or 10-12.  Any time I am I. The middle my teams seem disjointed.  I like being on an end to pair my picks better and it seems to lead to a more consistent team.
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This is why in my long time IDP we do “KDS” where you pick your own position. If you’re 1.05, you can take 1.12 lr 1.11 it’s not been taken. 

Last year the 1.03 pick took 1.12.  Then 4 took 3 & I took 11 instead of 4. 

 
Gally said:
I hate the middle.  I want an end so give me 1-3 or 10-12.  Any time I am I. The middle my teams seem disjointed.  I like being on an end to pair my picks better and it seems to lead to a more consistent team.
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This.

I have 1.10 this year and like the way it mocks. I’ve always had better teams on the ends; while you’re waiting 19-21-23 picks for it to get back to you, it’s fairly easy to predict what the other guys on the end with you are going to take. Super easy to get the two positions you’re looking for IME.

In the middle you’re getting sniped coming and going.

 
huthut said:
I want either 1-4 or 9-12. I have done two drafts already, drafting at 5 and 6, and it feels like you are always 1-2 picks after a tier drop off for the first 3 or 4 rounds in the middle. 
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This. I am always at the back end, every year, and I love it. I’m 8/10 this year and couldn’t be happier. Give me Adams/Hopkins and Mixon/Chubb. Or if I’m already drunk - Gurley. Then I’ll shoot for Williams or Jacobs in the 3rd. I love that start and it’s very reasonable. Hell, even Chubb is there in the 3rd on mocks I’ve done. 

 
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Elevencents said:
This. I am always at the back end, every year, and I love it. I’m 8/10 this year and couldn’t be happier. Give me Adams/Hopkins and Mixon/Chubb. Or if I’m already drunk - Gurley. Then I’ll shoot for Williams or Jacobs in the 3rd. I love that start and it’s very reasonable. Hell, even Chubb is there in the 3rd on mocks I’ve done. 
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I am 10 of 12 this year and the fact that Gordon (and apparently Zeke as well) are holding out, necessarily means that 2 others who would not have otherwise gone in the first 9 picks will move up. That said, in my 6 point passing TD league, I believe the first 9 picks (not necessarily in this order) will be (this again presumes no Zeke or Gordon): Barkley, Kamara, McCaffrey, Hopkins, Adams, Mahomes, DJ, Bell and probably Mixon. Which would leave me looking at any other WR/TE, or if I am going RB, Conner. Hoping Zeke at least ends his holdout so he moves back into the top 3 again. 

 
NYRAGE said:
I'll say 3rd in case there is a holdout (Zeke) or injury prior to your draft. It's safer than 4th.
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This.  It's always tempting to try to pick the perfect spot, but if you take 4th and an injury/holdout happens, you've screwed up your draft.  Always account for something happening to one player, so I'd take 3rd if you see no difference in the top 4.

I don't like 1st just because it's easier to get value by playing your opponents at the end of the draft (If Mahomes goes #1 overall for example, and you're picking 2.11 and 3.02 and want a QB, you can skip QB at 2.11 as you know the next best one would fall to 3.02 since Mahomes owner already has one).  This can give you better value.  This year I think 2 and 3 are the best two spots in redraft standard.

 
Deamon said:
This.  It's always tempting to try to pick the perfect spot, but if you take 4th and an injury/holdout happens, you've screwed up your draft.  Always account for something happening to one player, so I'd take 3rd if you see no difference in the top 4.

I don't like 1st just because it's easier to get value by playing your opponents at the end of the draft (If Mahomes goes #1 overall for example, and you're picking 2.11 and 3.02 and want a QB, you can skip QB at 2.11 as you know the next best one would fall to 3.02 since Mahomes owner already has one).  This can give you better value.  This year I think 2 and 3 are the best two spots in redraft standard.
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I agree.  Nice to have one person behind you for those situations.

That said, I really want Barkley, so if I have a chance at #1, I will probably grab it.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
This is why in my long time IDP we do “KDS” where you pick your own position. If you’re 1.05, you can take 1.12 lr 1.11 it’s not been taken. 

Last year the 1.03 pick took 1.12.  Then 4 took 3 & I took 11 instead of 4. 
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We do that as well.  Adds another element of strategy to draft day

I drew #8 last year and decided to draft 12th after the first 7 stayed in order,  in a 14 team league.  Really wanted Zeke, but KNEW he would be long gone by the 8th pick.  WR run goes early and Zeke is still sitting there at 8.  Wanted to punch myself in the nuts.  Worked out as Barkley fell to 12 and had a great rookie year, but still.

 
I have been doing a lot of mocks, and even with a third-round-reversal in our league, I am liking my team in the first 1-4 spots much better than the middle or the end of the round.  It seems to me the third round is stacked with RB2s with upside, whether you are picking at the end of the round or the beginning. 

I do see the points about holdouts/injuries, so if I had to choose, it would probably be the 3 spot.

 
You want to talk about an odd system - heading into the 25th year in this league. There are 7 position groups on our roster (1 QB, 2RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 K, 2 DL, 2 LB, 2DB (and we start a flex IDP as well).

So the first 7 rounds of the draft you can only draft one player from any position group.  Then in Round 8-24 you can pick whoever you want.

What this means is you can't double down on any position until Round 8.  So I prefer picking 10-12 in that scenario and if I do well in the first 7 rounds then I get a REALLY good #2 RB or #2 WR.

I don't like this format, but I've won 5 titles (and the last three in a row) so I've gotten good at this format even though I don't like it.  

 
I  usually like the turn, and this year is no different. 

At the top you pay too high a premium and may not get the return. Last year Bell and Johnson went 1, 3. Then you're scrambling for good wide outs. 

I like 11 or 12 where you're getting 13 or 14 immediately, you can often dictate a draft from those positions. 

 
This year my favorite spot would be the latest I could get DJ. So 4th or 5th. Coming out of the 4th round with these 4 players would be perfect. 

DJ

Tyreek

Kittle

Kyler Murray 

 
3 or 12. 3 you can get one of the top 3 (and avoid the Zeke/Gordon holdout drama) and still get an elite WR or potentially RB1 in the 2nd. With 12 one can get 2 elite WRs. 

 
Milkman said:
This year my favorite spot would be the latest I could get DJ. So 4th or 5th. Coming out of the 4th round with these 4 players would be perfect. 

DJ

Tyreek

Kittle

Kyler Murray 
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Been doing a lot of mocks lately.  No way Tyreek makes it back to you.  Haven't been able to get him in the 2nd at the 10 spot.  

 
I like three...here's my perfect draft based on current ADP from FF Caclulator (12 team PPR)

Round 1:  Kamara/CMC/Zeke

Round 2:  Chubb/Williams

Round 3:  Cooper

Round 4:  Godwin

Round 5:  Lockett

Round 6:  Penny

Round 7:  McDonald

Round 8:  Newton

Round 9:  Winston

 
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